BitcoinFriday
Felipe

https://bit.ly/m/cryptofriday

Change the world through Bitcoin education
▫ Bitcoin since 2013

felipevivamus@ln.tips

Public Key

npub1837u93v8am8q2rauvkqfk9sf6xfq07p9m4m82jueqh5u4qzkg25qesqrr4

NIP-57 Address

bitcoinfriday@getalby.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsrclwzckr7ans9p77xtqymzcyarys8lqja6an4fwvst6w2spty92qpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43qrgzzaa

Publishing to

relay.mostr.pub

Author Public Key

npub1837u93v8am8q2rauvkqfk9sf6xfq07p9m4m82jueqh5u4qzkg25qesqrr4

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Last Notes

2024-08-21 05:53:04

The Latest Bitcoin & Macro news: Weekly Recap 19.08.2024
If you rather want to read the long format outside of Nostr, click here:
https://habla.news/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq2jazfrlt2gdkxx2lwc7qn47j3ewlv34dhpj6qqx38w4agpe3tgpqqxnzdejxscnsdeexgerzdejv488jr
On Nostr:
#naddr1qv…88jr
🧡

2024-08-18 16:13:35

I almost snorted coffee out my nose laughing at this! Best tweet of the day🤣🤣
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC) Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/KDTd.jpg

2024-07-30 07:40:50

https://njump.me/naddr1qqxnzdejxgenzdfh8qerzdesqgsz5hgjgl66jrd33jhmk8sya055wthmydtdcvksqp5fm402qwv26qgrqsqqqa28ntsfq2
https://m.primal.net/Jbtr.jpg

2024-07-30 07:08:29

https://highlighter.com/npub19fw3y3l44yxmrr90hv0qf6lfguh0kg6kmsedqqrgnh275quc45qs70rgaq/note1ky4y5pkaln9827lqxz3mavwyzsy2y3lj3xjwrmklatgus2689k2q5244zf
New one 🧡

2024-07-27 15:42:15

- reply

*second time

2024-07-27 15:41:52

Reading ‘The Sovereign Individual’ for the second just hits differently.
I wish I had read this book 20 years ago, but I wasn't aware of its existence.
If you're looking to take your brain to the next level, figure out why we pay taxes, and understand the concepts of inflation and why our nation-state does what it does, well read the book.
A vision from 1997 that's gradually becoming a reality.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC) Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/JgKO.jpg

2024-07-23 21:59:41

https://habla.news/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq2jazfrlt2gdkxx2lwc7qn47j3ewlv34dhpj6qqx38w4agpe3tgpqqxnzdejxymnvwf5xq6rxv3smtshxn
https://m.primal.net/Jbtr.jpg

2024-07-23 21:57:57

#naddr1qv…shxn
https://m.primal.net/Jbtr.jpg

2024-07-16 20:33:52

- reply

Hmm that’s strange. On Primal, habla and on highlighter.com I have no problem.

2024-07-16 20:22:01

- reply

Mate just tried Habla and just shared the latest Weekly Recap in long format. Any feedback? Happy to hear! Thx for the info 🧡💪🏽

2024-07-16 20:16:19

#naddr1qv…w2hk
Latest weekly recap 🧡

2024-07-16 14:23:12

- reply

Thx mate!

2024-07-15 16:19:53

- reply

Thx for the feedback! What do you mean by a long format? Do you have an example?

2024-07-13 13:45:23

- reply

True about that. I will share that information in my next Weekly Recap. I think PocketBitcoin will follow suit, eventually.
Peach Bitcoin or Robosats for now (beginners/intermediate users) - or Bisq.

2024-07-13 06:58:48

Just use Nostr🧡💜
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/JOwt.jpg

2024-07-10 05:37:54

Better late than never… the latest Weekly Recap🧡
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'The main reason people don’t buy Bitcoin is because they don’t understand that money printing causes inflation, that inflation is time theft, and that time theft is slow murder.
The main reason people are not buying Bitcoin is because they think they’re late:
- You can’t be late to a perfect battery
- It does not have a CEO or foundation
- We’re at less than 1% global adoption
- It’s the only asset that is decentralized' - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Oranje🇳🇱 into the semi finals and Nostr is vibin'.
1st of July:
➡️'Bitcoin ATMs surge from 10K in Oct 2020 to over 38K globally, with continued growth expected.' -Bitcoin News
➡️More than 65% of all Bitcoin in circulation has been held for more than 1 year.
2nd of July:
The German government! Their Industrial Production YoY plunges to -6.7% (est. -4.3%) and every nuclear power plant is shut down. So what is the stupidest thing to do? Sell your Bitcoin!
German Government sends another 282 Bitcoin worth $18 million to exchanges.
German parliament member Joana Cotar says the government selling Bitcoin is “not sensible.”
Urges “holding BTC as a strategic reserve currency.”
3rd of July:
➡️ Trump sparks talks of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
FORBES: “That game theory would only accelerate if the United States… were the first developed country to begin accumulating bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. This decision would fast-track the global acceptance of Bitcoin as a long-term savings instrument and a form of digital gold. In this scenario, the United States would enjoy the greatest windfall in profit among OECD countries as a result of holding first-mover advantage.”
Every nation will recognize Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Some will be first...like El Salvador.
➡️The largest US Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms increased their hash rate by 50% in just one month. Currently, the world's largest Bitcoin mining facility is being built in Texas by Riot Platforms.
200 MW of the 1 GW total capacity is already operational.
5th of July:
➡️MT GOX has started Bitcoin repayments to creditors.
'MtGox distributions are considered a price risk for Bitcoin and indeed they are. But it's a one-time risk and if prices must drop to absorb supply (certainly possible) that supply will be transferred to much stronger hands. Once completed, supply risk is virtually eliminated.'
➡️'Celsius is going after over 5000 people who withdrew their money from Celsius within 90 days of their bankruptcy.
Imagine withdrawing your funds from a crypto exchange that has been lying about their reserves and they declare bankruptcy days after you escaped.
And now you’re being sued.
All the more reason to withdraw sooner rather than later.' -Bitfinexed
Just don't have your corn on centralized exchanges or services like Celcius. Once again:
NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS!🔑
➡️El Salvador keeps buying one Bitcoin a day, undeterred. By purchasing Bitcoin I am confident that El Salvador will become one of the fastest developing countries thanks to deflation of their currency and having Bitcoin as their new national currency.
➡️'Bitcoin's all-time longest winning streak has just ended. 427 days without a 25% drawdown. Beat the 2012 record by 63 days. Pretty incredible run we've had and well overdue for a correction.' - Charles Edwards
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 No news
🏦Banks:
👉🏽
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 1st of July:
👉The yen's 12-year crash against the dollar continues. The Japanese currency buys half the amount of dollars it did in 2012. This is what currency collapse looks like.
On the 2nd of July:
(Picture 1)
👉WW1 and WW2 were discrete events with a defined goal. The main question is, what the actual fuck are they spending on?
And it is not only in the US, put the deficits and debt bubble on a country like Germany or Europe in general and you would have a bigger problem. Wonder why the world has a problem? Government deficits relative to GDP are out of control.
Regarding the spending problem:
'Annual US government spending reached a MASSIVE $6.5 trillion in May, just $1.1 trillion below the March 2021 record.
The government's total outlays have DOUBLED in just a decade.
To put this into perspective, this is more than the size of most world economies except the US and China.
Meanwhile, the US budget deficit hit $1.7 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP over the last 12 months.
In the past, such levels of spending have only occurred during major crises.' -TKL
Meanwhile, Chair Powell says the U.S. deficit is better fixed sooner rather than later.
'The U.S. government deficit is unsustainable, Chair Powell said in Europe, while avoiding comment on fiscal policy, as usual. The subject arose as markets brace for the possibility of the same party controlling the Executive branch and both houses of Congress after the November election, a combination that investors typically see as an open door to higher spending. "The U.S. is running a very large deficit at a time when we are at full employment," Powell said. "This is something that should be a top-level issue" for elected officials. "In the longer run we will have to do something sooner or later and sooner would be better than later," he said.'
Meanwhile, US debt increases by $109B in 1 day. Just to give you one more stat:
It took 165 years for the US to accumulate its first $1 trillion of debt. Now, the US amasses $1 trillion in debt every 150 days.
👉'US manufacturing activity fell to 48.5 points in June, the third consecutive month of contraction.
The latest reading of the ISM manufacturing PMI index missed expectations of 49.1 points.
The decline has been primarily driven by contracting employment, production, and new orders.
Overall, US manufacturing has shrunk in 19 of the last 20 months, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Is the economy slowing down?'- TKL
👉Eurozone core inflation unexpectedly sticky: Headline CPI slows to +2.5% in June from 2.6% in May, in line with forecasts. However, core inflation is at 2.9% – a notch higher than forecasted. Experts had expected it to cool to 2.8%.
👉Last week I already mentioned that Javier Milei slashed Argentina's annual inflation by 95% in just seven months. Monthly inflation has fallen from 25.5% to 4.2% since he took office.
From a 1355% inflation rate to a surplus budget, his economic policies have transformed the economy.
This week Argentina's President Milei says the nation will no longer print money: We are going to the zero issuance stage....what we aim for is that the broad monetary base does not vary."
Inflation in Argentina was 64% in the first 4 months of 2024.
Who could have guessed that cutting government spending and not printing was going to reduce inflation...Who could have guessed...
Now don't get me wrong it is a great move by Milei but it's still only as good as the honesty of governments (always lying and always finding a reason to print more). That's why only money that CANNOT be debased matters. Bitcoin!
👉'With Biden 2.0 no longer an option, the Treasury has also stopped pretending and the US government jumped by $109 billion in one day - the biggest one-day increase since Oct '23 - to a record $34.831 trillion. And now the debt starts to really move again.' - Zerohedge
Funny stat:
'Since Jan 1, 2000:
2 Money Supply (USD) has increased by an average of:
- $81M PER HOUR
- $1.9B/day
- $700B/year
$17T increase in 24yrs (8,948 days)
THERE IS NO LIMIT TO HOW MUCH FIAT MONEY CENTRAL BANKS WILL CREATE.' -DenverBitcoin
On the 3rd of July:
👉'Italy's real wage misery: inflation-adjusted wages in 2023 were 4.4% lower than in 1990. Even real wages in Greece performed a little better.' -Phillip Heimberger
I wonder if this is a contributing factor to Meloni's win.
Before joining the Eurozone Greece, Italy & Co. were staying competitive by continually devaluing their currencies. Now the only avenues left are reduction of real wages or productivity growth.
👉'Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) jumps to 5.4%, the highest level in history
*The SOFR is the benchmark interest rate that measures the cost of borrowing cash overnight.' -CarlBMenger
On the 5th of July:
👉'BOTH May and April jobs report numbers were just revised lower by a combined 111,000 jobs.
The May jobs report was revised from 272,000 to 218,000 while the April jobs report was revised from 165,000 to 108,000.
This means that 10 out of the last 15 monthly jobs reports have been revised lower.
On a net basis, the US economy really only added 95,000 jobs this month.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is now at 4.1% since December 2021.
The labor market is slowing down rapidly. The US economy really only added a net 95,000 jobs in June...
...until that number is revised lower next month after all the headlines say the labor market is thriving.
The labor market is declining.' - TKL
Jobs look OK if the government just hires everyone.
41% of jobs added since 2019 were by the government burning taxpayer dollars.
On the 6th of July:
👉'That‘s the most scary chart I have seen in a while. Unfunded pension entitlements in major European countries are between 300% and 500% of GDP. Mixed with collapsing demographics it’s a recipe for debt disaster.' - Michael A. Arouet
(Picture 2)
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Is the Bitcoin Cycle Broken? With @therationalroot
They discuss:
- BitcoinSpiral Chart 3D & cycle alignment
- ETF flows & supply dynamics
- Liquid supply & the HODL model
- Power law, S2F, & the price multiplier effect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kcq5mevS6M
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
https://m.primal.net/JLzj.jpg
https://m.primal.net/JLzk.jpg

2024-07-07 19:26:48

- reply

Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Hapsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire. -Nial Ferguson
https://m.primal.net/JKMh.jpg

2024-07-07 17:07:38

Happy Sunday!
Plebs, whisky & meat!🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/JKIF.jpg
https://m.primal.net/JKII.jpg

2024-07-02 20:42:28

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Picture 1, 2, 3, and 4. https://image.nostr.build/516625becc4a5dd12bc6b39d712d121b7fd4f46a930b64f1a82b51c5d35a4cd2.jpg https://image.nostr.build/f8dd1e5420ec3d9b4388ed588ef2affa82a34cd9538f747661234ae2c0c95005.jpg https://image.nostr.build/17c5c441d9f29874e571f0127ccbe2d0fd55fb1ca8fee79aa29e17836b3d0bbc.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b51fc9dcbf11bf1c69dfb16cfb29ee0110d2ce0e414d9c4b42f0d70cd21fac8c.jpg

2024-07-02 20:39:25

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'Last month, we've absorbed:
US Gov selling
German selling
Mt Gox distribution fears
Miner capitulation
Yet, Bitcoin is consolidating at $61K, just 20% below ATH.
Tops are the exact opposite, driven by FOMO and greed. This is nothing like that. We're going much higher.' - Thomas Fahrer
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Oranje into the Quarter-Finals and Nostr is vibin'.
I want to start the Weekly Recap with a short story. I put the following post on Instagram and Nostr: https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0uzqg3nnuvsz0tycu4ydl2m4gnm245m0n3gsppxm4pttrgy8j3gqprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wdmksetjv5hxxmmdqy28wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hsygpu0hpvtplweczsl0r9szd3vzw3jgrlsfwawe65hxg9a89gq4jz4q5vzdpe
On IG (945 followers): 3 likes
On Nostr (273 followers): It has 68 likes, 14 reposts, 8 replies, and 12 zaps (people sent me small amounts of BTC)
On Nostr:
-No KYC or info required
-Instant final settlement (just press the Lightning button and boom it’s done)
-Bitcoin native
-Use any client (Damus and Primal on iOS, Amethyst on Android, or Primal on the web)
But far more important you own your own content + money!
Nostr is looking better every day.
Less doom, more hope. More you in control.
Great quote by @npub1trr…hdpu :
'We wouldn’t need Nostr
-If we could trust social media companies
-If we could trust admins
-If we could trust could regulators
But we can’t. That’s why we need Plan N'
Bitcoin is an uncensorable transfer of value. Nostr is an uncensorable transfer of information.
24th of June:
➡️Louisiana passes the bill to protect the right to custody of Bitcoin and ban CBDCs.
Louisiana joins Oklahoma, Montana, & Arkansas in setting a pro-Bitcoin policy blueprint for the nation.
25th of June:
➡️'The German government sold 900 Bitcoin ($54M) on June 25th.
This included 200 BTC each to Coinbase and Kraken, with the remaining going to an unknown wallet ("139Po").' - Bitcoin News
Weak hands! These 900 Bitcoins are now (hopefully) safely in the hands of ultra-hardcore maxis with diamond hands.
➡️'The current Bitcoin halving cycle is still outperforming the second halving cycle if you zoom in a lot on the bottom left of the chart. We are so early, very bullish!' - Pierre Rochard
(Picture 1)
➡️Bitcoin lightning payments app Strike launches to millions across the UK.
Watch the full video (announcement) by Jack Mallers here: https://x.com/jackmallers/status/1806423520370364640
➡️'Hedge Fund strategy:
Push down the Bitcoin price by shorting it until more and more miners need to sell because of the low price. The price goes even lower. Meanwhile, Hedge Funds buy up everything available then close their shorts and we go to $1M.'
Now you might say this is not realistic, but is it?
'When Blackrock has 500,000 Bitcoin and they've pushed the price to $1M.
Blackrock will make $1.25B in Fees. Not mining fees, the IBIT management fees.
Every. Year. Forever.' - Thomas Fahrer
➡️Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues to steadily decline.
Since the beginning of the year, about 250,000 Bitcoins have left the exchanges. Less Bitcoin on exchanges means more short-term volatility.
➡️ Morgan Stanley is set to approve Bitcoin ETFs on their wealth management platform for all clients by the end of August (at the latest), according to a senior source.
➡️Latin American digital bank Nubank is integrating the Bitcoin Lightning Network for its 100 million customers. Nubark is owned by Warren Buffett.
➡️Last week I mentioned that the German government sold roughly $425 million BTC. One of the best quotes on this topic by Alex Gladstein:
'Germany selling large amounts of Bitcoin for euros *that it can print* will go right up there with ditching nuclear power in exchange for relying on Putin for fuel as biggest self-inflicted wounds of the 21st century'
26th of June:
Bitcoin hashrate is down nearly 10% off the all-time highs that were hit at the end of April
27th of June:
➡️'BlackRock disclosed buying Bitcoin for its Global Allocation Fund in the latest SEC filing.
This is the THIRD internal BlackRock fund that has bought Bitcoin through the IBIT Bitcoin ETF' - Bitcoin Archive
'Looking at the past 5 years, Bitcoin is up 422%, mid-cap altcoins 145% and small-cap altcoins 8%. You missed 400% chasing shiny things instead of embracing Bitcoin. Choose wisely on how you store your value, allocate your time, and invest your resources.' - Gabor Gurbacs
(Picture 2)
As usual and in every cycle most people think they're a genius with impeccable timing until the rugs, dumps, scams, and 'capital rotations' hit, and then they're left holding dust.
➡️Cleanspark will acquire bitcoin miner GRIID for $155 million, with plans to expand over 400 MW in Tennessee.
Under the merger agreement, CleanSpark will purchase all GRIID common stock in an all-stock transaction, with GRIID stockholders receiving CleanSpark shares. The South is now Bitcoin miner territory, as it started in Georgia, then Mississippi, and now Tennessee. If I am right the South holds more available energy than any other region in America.
➡️Bolivia makes Bitcoin trading and payments legal again in an effort to modernize the financial system.
Ecuador is now the only country in Latin America that prohibits Bitcoin payments.
28th of June:
➡️ In the previous Weekly Recap I mentioned that Michael Dell, CEO of multi-billion dollar tech firm Dell Technologies, just dipped his toes into the Bitcoin waters, and this recent jest did make a splash.
Now last week Michael Dell posted a tweet with a poll 'The most important thing':
👉🏽AI
👉🏽Bitcoin
👉🏽Love and relationships
👉🏽None of the above.
'Is Dell coming for the throne? Is 23 times more fiat enough to overtake Saylor in Bitcoin holdings? Maybe not, but will be a fun match to watch.' - Bitcoin for Freedom
➡️Bitcoin holdings at OTC desks have seen a significant increase in the last two months.
29th of June:
➡️Bitcoin miner capitulation has reached levels comparable to December 2022 (7.6%), which marked the cycle bottom after the FTX collapse.
➡️In June, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Monthly Net Inflow: $+668 million
- Price down to $61,000 from $67,500
- Blackrock adds 15,416 Bitcoin, a $1.1 billion inflow, and owns 306,979 Bitcoin
- 2nd Fidelity with $276 million inflow
- 3rd Bitwise Invest with $56 million inflow
Ergo: Added almost $700 million and price down 10%.
Also, Saylor bought $800 million more.
➡️'About 99.5% of all the Bitcoin in circulation is held in 16.5 million UTXOs that have a value of 1m sats or more. Most of the other 169 million UTXOs will likely become economically unspendable in the future assuming they aren't consolidated into larger ones relatively soon.' - Wicked
If you want to learn more on the topic please read the following article:
https://river.com/learn/bitcoins-utxo-model/#what-is-bitcoin-utxo-management
1st of July:
➡️SONY to launch Bitcoin and CrApTo exchange. According to a statement on July 1, Sony will take ownership of Amber Japan’s WhaleFin exchange, which will be renamed S.BLOX Co.
➡️Japanese company Metaplanet has acquired an additional ~20.195 BTC for ¥200 million
As of July 1st, Metaplanet now holds ~161.26 BTC, equivalent to ~9% of its market cap.
➡️'Bitcoin difficulty is expected to drop -6% on Friday, the biggest drop since Dec'22 (the FTX collapse), which marked the cycle bottom. Even the May 10 drop at -5.6% has so far marked the bottom. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if this marked another local bottom. Relief is coming for miners.' - James van Straten
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 No news
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 U.S. bank's unrealized losses have accumulated to $525 billion, almost 7 times bigger than during the GFC. (Picture 3)
Banks are the most highly regulated scams of our lifetime. Look at the picture and ask yourself, is this fine? FDIC report shows that the investment securities of US banks 'under water' big time, almost 7x worse than in the subprime crisis (GFC). this does not include losses on their regular loan portfolios.
One day the chicken will come home to roost.
Oh well, a little brrr can fix this...right?
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 24th of June:
👉Argentina has recorded zero Inflation in its food and beverage sector for the first time in 30 years. It's a great stat, but still not great. They need 120 quarters of negative inflation to make up for the damage. Javier Milei slashed Argentina's annual inflation by 95% in just seven months.
Monthly inflation has fallen from 25.5% to 4.2% since he took office.
From a 1355% inflation rate to a surplus budget, his economic policies have transformed the economy.
As Milei said, the reforms he is making will have lasting benefits in years to come. The population will settle into stability as time goes on. At the moment 60% of Argentina’s population wants Milei to continue with these profound reforms.
Who could have guessed that cutting government spending and not printing was going to reduce inflation...Who could have guessed...
👉The best news I have heard for a long time: JULIAN ASSANGE IS FREE
He left Belmarsh maximum security prison on the morning of 24 June, after having spent 1901 days there. He was granted bail by the High Court in London and was released at Stansted Airport during the afternoon, where he boarded a plane and departed the UK.
1 out, 2 to go
Julian Assange’s jet and recovery costs totaled $520,000 and most of it was paid in Bitcoin
Someone from the community donated 8BTC in a single anonymous donation.
👉'The Japanese Yen against the US dollar just hit a fresh 34-year low.
The USD-JPY currency pair closed on Friday slightly below 160, the level which was previously defended by Japan’s Ministry of Finance intervention.
According to government data, Japan spent a record 9.8 trillion Yen ($62 billion) to support the currency between April 26th and May 29th.
This is all despite the Bank of Japan raising rates for the 1st time in 17 years in March from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%.
Overall, the Japanese currency has lost 13% of its purchasing power against the US Dollar year-to-date.' -TKL
Over the last 12.5 years, the Japanese Yen has lost a whopping 53% of its value against the US Dollar! Yikes! To make it even worse Japan's Q1 GDP was revised down to -2.9%
Fire up the printers, banzai!
(Picture 4)
'Dear Bank of Japan congratulations, your toilet paper of a currency is now the worst performing in the world, with the lira, peso, and real all stronger.' - Zerohedge
On the 25th of June:
👉'Real retail sales are on track for their 2nd consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines. US retail sales adjusting for inflation fell by 0.9% in May and are now 3.8% below their April 2021 peak.
To put this into perspective, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric dropped by ~13% and by ~4% in the early 2000s recession.
The largest decline in history took place during the 2020 Pandemic with a 20% decline.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment has decreased for a 3rd straight month to its lowest level since November 2023.' - TKL
On the 27th of June:
👉After a shallow dip, Eurozone M3 Money Supply is making new highs.
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, has already fired up the money printer. It's only a matter of time before others follow suit.
ps.: on the 1st of July -> US M2 Money Supply turns up.
Oh please bear in mind meaning the ESG debt is ballooning in Europe as the ECB is trying to add sustainability to its mandate.
👉U.S. Treasury Liquidity is now at its worst point in AT LEAST the last 14 years, surpassing even the GFC.
On the 28th of June:
👉'US consumers have exhausted their savings:
$2.3 trillion of accumulated savings have been depleted by Americans since August 2021.
In other words, $67.6 billion of savings has been spent by US consumers PER MONTH.
As savings have declined, consumer credit card debt has spiked by $290 billion, or ~40% in 3 years.
In other words, to fight rising prices and elevated interest rates, US households have gone into debt at the fastest pace since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Consumers are struggling.' -TKL
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
I want to give you a great conversation/podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBqLz5hvSHA
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption

2024-07-02 06:10:08

- reply

Just my opinion:
For long term savings you wanna have larger UTXOs. So try to bundle the small amounts (UTXO's).
You can use lightning but I would use it whilst running your own node.

2024-07-02 06:04:20

- reply

I doubt that since mining is such a competitive industry. I wouldn't count on it.

2024-07-02 06:01:39

- reply

Try not to have too many below 1m sats.

2024-06-30 06:50:46

‘About 99.5% of all the Bitcoin in circulation is held in 16.5 million UTXOs that have a value of 1m sats or more. Most of the other 169 million UTXOs will likely become economically unspendable in the future assuming they aren’t consolidated into larger ones relatively soon.’ - @npub14uh…ez89
People please do some UTXO management and whilst doing that buy some sats.
Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) can be classified into different segments based on their age.
UTXO Management for Dummies:
If everyone pays you in quarters you’ll have to lug around a big heavy bag. It’ll also cost you more time to spend as you have to count quarters when paying. So ask for $20s or $100s as payment, or change your quarters into bills from time to time.
Now I can hear you say...wtf is a UTXO?
A UTXO stands for unspent transaction output. Don’t worry about those unnecessarily complicated words. Just use “UTXO” and understand the concept of what it is…
If you want to learn/study the topic: https://armantheparman.com/utxo/
Credit picture: @npub14uh…ez89
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/JCyH.jpg

2024-06-24 19:44:14

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Hapsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire. -Niall Ferguson
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
I want to start the Weekly Recap with a picture & a story. Someone posted the following quote/picture: (Picture 1)
What can you learn from this? His fundamental mistake was not gaining the understanding that Bitcoin differs from, and is superior to all CrYpTO.
‘This guy probably would’ve had a cost basis below $10k had he just started regularly dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin instead of trading shitcoins. The shortcut IS saving in Bitcoin.’ — @npub14uh…ez89
That's because CrYpTo isn't Bitcoin. If he were saving in Bitcoin since 2017, he would be retired.
Let me explain that with data:
If he bought Bitcoin in 2017 at the pico top he’d be up 300% right now
if he bought Bitcoin in 2017 at the bottom he’d be up 8,500% right now
Yikes! Anyway let's continue:
17th of June:
➡️SEC's chief of the crypto asset enforcement division David Hirsch has left the role.
The timing of these things is almost like a script. weird, huh? Probably he will be hired by a financial corporation to lobby their 'CrYpTo' division.
➡️BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "No matter how much we tax, cut, or reduce debt, it will not be enough. Building new infrastructure is critical." -Simply Bitcoin
When he mentions new infrastructure, what do you think he means? CBDCs? Or Bitcoin? Is that why they're buying Bitcoin?
➡️'Daily active Bitcoin addresses fell from 700K to 613K in the past month.' - Bitcoin News
19th of June:
➡️'Bitcoin illiquid supply has increased since May, suggesting investors are choosing to hodl rather than trade.' -Bitcoin News
➡️'Cleanspark announces the acquisition of five new Bitcoin mining facilities in Georgia for $25.8M.
The deal will boost Cleanspark's operational hashrate to +20 EH/s by the end of June.' -Bitcoin News
➡️'People think DCAing forever into the S&P 500 is much safer than Bitcoin.
I question that severely. ~7% of your portfolio is now Nvidia, another 30% are mega-cap US tech, and the remaining 63% are just zombie companies.' - Joe Burnett
➡️'Bitcoin mining distribution worldwide.' -Blockware (Picture 2)
20th of June:
'Bitcoin miner reserves fell to 1.90M BTC, the lowest level in the last 14 years.' - Bitcoin News
➡️International Business Times says Bitcoin mining can help achieve “net zero by 2050,"
This is a mainstream media channel, based in NY. It’s a well-researched article on Bitcoin mining, aware of contemporary research including:
👉🏽Cornell study showing bitcoin can create “a self-sustaining cycle for renewable energy expansion”
👉🏽Digital Assets Research Institute study showing Bitcoinwell-researched uses 54.5% sustainable sources
👉🏽Various studies show Bitcoin mining can turn [wasted] “Excess Energy Into Economic Value”
Source: https://www.ibtimes.com/southeast-asia-can-turn-excess-energy-economic-value-through-bitcoin-mining-expert-3734777
➡️MicroStrategy just bought $786 MILLION Bitcoin at an average cost of $65,883.
They acquired 11,931 more Bitcoin and continued their unwavering strategy of accumulating BTC. With this latest purchase, the company's total holdings now stand at approximately 226,331 Bitcoin.
➡️Winklevoss twins donated 30 Bitcoin worth +$2 Million to Donald Trump’s campaign to "put an end to the Biden Admin's war on crypto."
On one hand, my first reaction is why on earth would you give away your precious Bitcoin to any politician? But on the other hand, it's kinda a power move. Bitcoin is now political. Bitcoin is now a topic in the upcoming US election.
The reasoning is worth the read: https://x.com/tyler/status/1803872859938549920
➡️'Michael Dell, CEO of multi-billion dollar tech firm Dell Technologies, just dipped his toes into the Bitcoin waters, and this recent jest did make a splash.
It all started when Dell tweeted “Scarcity creates value.” Enter Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s possibly Bitcoin-obsessed executive chairman, who couldn’t resist chiming in with a hashtagged reply saying “Bitcoin is Digital Scarcity.” Dell, apparently intrigued, hit that retweet button faster than you can say “blockchain.”
The real kicker here is this: Dell later shared a meme of Sesame Street’s Cookie Monster, probably generated by AI or photoshopped to show the blue fuzzball munching on Bitcoin instead of his usual chocolate chip treats.
Dell Technologies is sitting comfortably with $34.6 billion in current assets (including a not-too-shabby $5.8 billion in cash), there’s no mention of Bitcoin anywhere in their recent filings. So, for now, this looks more like a playful flirtation than a full-on pursuit of Bitcoin.' - Crypto Briefing (Picture 3)
If Dell were to implement a Bitcoin treasury strategy, it would be by far the largest corporation to do so. As a founder-CEO-led company, Dell has the visionary leadership required to make such a bold move. Although we all know that cash is like a melting ice cube.
22nd of June:
➡️Bitcoin dips 3,5% as the German government sells $325 million BTC over two days. This, and that total outflows last week was $544.1 million.
24th of June:
➡️Mt. Gox will begin Bitcoin repayments starting at the beginning of July 2024.
➡️Metaplanet issues ¥1 billion in 0.5% bonds; proceeds to fund additional purchases of $BTC.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
On the 19th of June:
👉🏽 Nvidia is now larger than:
1. GDP of every country in the world except 7
2. The entire Crypto market combined
3. 5x the market cap of Tesla
4. 6x the market cap of Walmart
5. The market cap of the entire French stock market
6. Canada's GDP plus $1.2 trillion in cash
7. 13x the market cap of AMD
8. 3x the GDP of the city of Los Angeles
9. Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway COMBINED
10. Collective net worth of the 12 richest people in the world
Nvidia's market cap is now worth more than the entire US oil and gas industry.
It's also worth more than every building in New York City COMBINED.
Since October 2023, Nvidia has added $2.3 TRILLION in market cap.
Funny stat: Nvidia insiders are selling the stock at the fastest pace in years.
Jensen Huang just sold another $31 million of NVDA. That brings his total sales this week to over $90 million. It’s his largest cluster of sales in 19 years. But bear in mind this is just a tiny fraction of his total holdings. Shit, I would sell some if I had some.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Let's start this segment with a the quote:
'Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Hapsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire.' -Niall Ferguson
On the 17th of June:
👉'The US Treasury estimates net interest costs on federal debt will hit a record $890 billion in 2024.
This would be $331 billion higher than a year ago and almost double the amount from 2022.
To put this into perspective, net interest expenses will be ~3% of the ENTIRE US GDP, the highest in over 30 years and higher than World War II levels.
On a non-net basis, interest payments have already surpassed $1 trillion when annualized.
Total interest payments are set to reach as high as $1.6 trillion by the end of the year if the Fed does not cut rates.
The debt crisis is an understatement.' - TKL (Picture 4)
On the 18th of June:
👉'The Bank of England pays out so much interest on bank reserves that it impacts the UK’s fiscal situation. This is part of the overall “fiscal dominance” situation and is common to many countries, but accounting treatments differ.' - Lyn Alden
The UK but also other countries are now spending more and more tax revenue on past debt rather than on future growth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-13/boe-reserves-enter-uk-election-debate-as-politicians-chase-cash
👉🏽 On this day the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) boots the 2024 US budget deficit estimate to 1.9$T from 1.5$T.
Classic! What is 0.4T between friends, right?
CBO's 10-year projections have historically underestimated federal debt by an average of 58% (using data from 2006-2023).
Thus, their $50 trillion deficit estimate is more than likely to actually be $75T. Oh, how I love data!
On the 19th of June:
(Picture 5)
👉'RE: The Goldman report on foreign UST demand, a picture is worth 1,000 words:
Total US Federal debt 1990-present in blue.
Total foreign holdings of USTs in green.
Foreign official (CB) holdings of USTs in red.
"Mind the Gap".' - Luke Gromen
So you might wonder who is buying all of the debt (USTs)? The answer is simple:
The Fed, US banks, US retail.
Hard to get inflation under control when the gap is being filled in with the printing press...
👉'Japan's biggest banks (Norinchukin is Japan's 5th largest bank with $840 billion in assets) today the proverbial canary stepped on a neutron bomb inside the Japanese coalmine because according to Nikkei, Norinchukin Bank "will sell more than 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) of its holdings of U.S. and European government bonds during the year ending March 2025 as it aims to stem its losses from bets on low-yield foreign bonds, a main cause of its deteriorating balance sheet, and lower the risks associated with holding foreign government bonds.' -Zerohedge
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/music-just-stopped-banking-giant-norinchukin-liquidate-63-billion-treasuries-and-european
Is this the reason why the Japanese Yen is against the dollar hitting levels not seen since 1990?
Now just read the headlines above again and ask yourself: Is this the reason why better should a bit own Bitcoin?
If not, just read the following statement:
👉'The US debt stampede is back: federal debt jumps by $70BN in one day to a record $34.750 trillion, the biggest one-day jump since February.' - Zerohedge
👉🏽 'UK inflation has dropped to the magic level of 2.0%! The last time UK inflation was at the target of the Bank of England was three years ago.
So expect central bank policymakers to cheer their achievement but not to say a word about the fact that consumer prices rose by a staggering 21% in those three years.
For central banks, the arbitrarily chosen 12-month rate of change in prices is the only thing that counts.
The good news is that this will open the door to rate cuts, providing more liquidity for financial markets.' -Jeroen Blokland
On the 21st of June:
👉🏽'To meet reformed EU fiscal rules, Italy and France would have to go for fiscal consolidations over 2025-2028 that are larger than during the Euro Crisis (2011-2014). Spain has to do about half.
Do we properly remember the effects and political debates of €zone austerity?' - Phillip Heimberger (Picture 6)
Remember Draghi, former ECB president 'Whatever it takes'. The above is just another example of a one-size-fits-all approach that does not work.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
I want to give you two video's.
First video Jack Mallers: There is no second Best (BTC Prague 2024 Keynote)
“A failure to understand proof of work is a failure to understand Bitcoin.”
Jack opens his keynote with this quote by Gigi, and closes this comparison of bitcoin and altcoins: “We can't decide for you. We can educate you.” — Jack Mallers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--IFcOIEfl4&t=510s
Second video Lyn Alden: Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, they discuss the role of the Fed and central banks, fractional reserve vs free banking, how bitcoin could change these dynamics and if we should actually end the Federal Reserve System.
“We actually now have ways to do fast settlement…payments and settlements that can’t be reversed, it’s starting to show that maybe you actually don’t even need a central bank.” — Lyn Alden
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdEJHUqT0XE
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
https://m.primal.net/IweL.jpg
https://m.primal.net/IweO.jpg
https://m.primal.net/IweQ.jpg
https://m.primal.net/IweV.jpg
https://m.primal.net/IweX.jpg
https://m.primal.net/Iweb.jpg

2024-06-20 22:58:18

Noderunners🧡💜
https://m.primal.net/IsEK.mov

2024-06-17 20:40:14

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Bitcoin is a strange game where the only winning move is to play." -Bitstein
'I’m prepared to lose everything over Bitcoin. Everything I have is riding on this one trade. If Bitcoin fails, I will be absolutely wrecked. It will take years to recover.
I told myself a long time ago I’d rather lose everything than miss out on the most asymmetric opportunity of my lifetime.
I bought the top in 2021. I purchased the bottom in 2022. I’m still buying now.
I’m more allocated as a percentage of my portfolio to Bitcoin than I have ever been before.
This may seem irresponsible as fuck but when you see the world through the Bitcoin lens it makes much more sense. It’s perfect math.
I don’t know how many fully longed degenerate Bitcoin hodlers are out there riding this colossal Bitcoin wave with me but you’re all fucking legends in my book.' -The Bitcoin Therapist
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
9th of June:
➡️ Paraguay is earning more money selling its energy to Bitcoin miners than by selling it to Brazil.
'Paraguay to sell excess hydro-energy to miners as part of its new Economic Development strategy.
Paraguay's Itaipu hydro-power station is one of the world's biggest, yet only 20% of the generated power is used.' - Bitcoin Archive
10th of June:
➡️ If we took the official inflation rate Bitcoin would have to hit $79,000 to reach a new all-time high. But we all know the real inflation is much higher. (Picture 1)
➡️ 'Canadian public company DeFi Technologies has adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. It just bought 110 BTC.' - Bitcoin Magazine
The game theory associated with putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet is starting to heat up. (more on that later on)
Funny isn't it, a 'defi' company buying Bitcoin. No NFT, no Crapyto....Bitcoin.
'The three newest public companies to announce they have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets—Defi Technologies, Semler Scientific, and Metaplanet—are all up between 30-50% over the past 5 days'
11th of June:
➡️Last week I mentioned that Metaplanet directors authorized the purchase of an additional ¥250 million of Bitcoin. Now this week Metaplanet jumped 9.88% after announcing its third Bitcoin purchase. Call it conviction.
12th of June:
➡️Trump pushing Bitcoin as a tool for US Energy is an amazing turnaround. 2024-2028 is going to be insane.
➡️World's largest bank, ICBC, says "Bitcoin retains scarcity similar to gold and solves gold's divisibility and portability issues."
➡️Taunton Firefighters become the fourth union in the US to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
13th of June:
➡️Supply on exchanges fell to ~939K BTC, the lowest since 2021.
➡️ERCOT recommends (Senate Committee on Business and Commerce) that Bitcoin mining be integrated as a Controllable Load Resource to ensure grid reliability.
'𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡:
ERCOT runs the power grid in Texas to make sure everyone gets electricity.
Bitcoin miners can turn off their big power using mining machines quickly, which helps ERCOT manage the grid better during high demand.
This helps ERCOT avoid blackouts, and Bitcoin miners get paid for helping and can save money on their operations.' -Explainbriefly
I love the following @npub1trr…hdpu quote: "Once politicians and tax authorities learn that other people are willing to *pay them* to stabilize their energy grids and expand electricity production and bootstrap green energy, it’s game over for mainstream Bitcoin mining denialism."
➡️Microstrategy is raising $500M through convertible senior notes to buy more Bitcoin. With over 214,400 BTC already, the company remains the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.
➡️'Australia’s largest bank just put the Bitcoin ETF [IBTC] onto its trading platform! Commonwealth Bank of Australia has 17 million customers!' - BitcoinArchive
➡️Biden’s SEC is suing Coinbase in federal court arguing it doesn’t have a right to exist as an exchange. At the same time, the Biden campaign is preparing to accept crypto donations via Coinbase. A freaking clown show!
On the other side of the aisle. Trump had a dinner with Bitcoin mining executives. A few days later... check out the 15th of June.
14th of June:
➡️MicroStrategy increased its offering by $200m for a total of $700 MILLION to buy more.
15th of June:
➡️BIDEN ADMIN TO ATTEND BITCOIN ROUNDTABLE WITH KEY CONGRESSIONAL OFFICIALS IN DC
‘The primary objective of this meeting is to strategize on how to keep "Bitcoin and blockchain innovation in the United States.”’ - Dylan LeClair
➡️T-Mobile, partly owned by the German state and which owns T-Mobile US and Magenta, the world's largest telecom company with 3 times the footprint of Verizon and double the footprint of AT&T just announced that they are currently running Bitcoin nodes and they are planning to launch into Bitcoin mining. This has to be one of the most bullish news to come out of BTC Prague.
➡️Brazil's largest bank now offers Bitcoin trading to 60M customers via its Ion app!
17th of June:
➡️'We are currently 33 days into a Bitcoin miner capitulation, with the average duration over the past five years being 41 days.
Miner addresses collectively hold a substantial treasury of 700,000 BTC, but their balance has decreased by 30,000 BTC since October.
This period marks the longest distribution phase for miners since 2017, adding to headwinds.
Despite this, the hash rate has only decreased by 12% from its peak as unprofitable miners continue to sell Bitcoin to sustain operations.' - James van Straten
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
24th of May:
👉🏽 Magnificent 7 stocks have officially exceeded $15 trillion in combined market cap for the 1st time ever.
The group's combined market cap now equals over 50% of US GDP.
In just 2 months the Magnificent 7's value has surged by a whopping $2 trillion.
The Magnificent 7 stocks have rallied by over 60% over the last 12 months compared to only a 20% gain in the other 493 S&P 500 stocks.
Combined they reflect over a record 30% of the entire S&P 500.
Big tech is getting even bigger. This is unsustainable and quite frankly it's the magnificent 1: NVIDIA.
From the movie The Big Short: 'They call him chicken little, bubble boy!'
🏦Banks:
👉🏽No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Let's start this segment with the following statement by Fed Chair Powell:
'Fed Chair Powell says the Fed does not have high confidence in their forecasts.'
I mean who has...? They have like 1400 PhD at the office, but hey..what about forecasting? This is quite reassuring right? Monetary policy is just vibes right now. Ffs.
On the 9th of June
👉🏽How expensive is the US national debt and how dangerous the US debt crisis has become?
'The average interest rate on $34.6 trillion of Treasury debt is now 3.2%, the highest since 2010.
$5.9 trillion of the national debt is in Treasury Bills, with an average interest rate of 5.4%.
Meanwhile, a record $9.3 trillion of national debt is going to mature within the next 12 months.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 1-2 times, this debt will have to be refinanced at much higher rates.
All while annualized interest payments have already surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history.' -TKL
The federal government's current annualized interest payment expenditure stands at $1.025 trillion, slightly surpassing the annualized defense expenditure of $1.022 trillion. To make it even worse the US government expenditures as % of GDP just hit 43%, matching levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. To put this into perspective, spending as a % of GDP is just 1% below World War 2 levels. Even at the peak of World War 1, US government spending as a % of GDP was 20 percentage points lower.
From my point of view the US has reached the point of no return, no matter the outcome of the upcoming US election.
It took 220 years for the U.S. to accumulate 11 trillion dollars in debt. This is the same amount of debt that the U.S. just added since 2020. Unsustainable. Why?
'In the first 8 months of Fiscal Year 2024, the US deficit hit a whopping $1.2 trillion, or $4.9 billion PER DAY.
In May alone, deficit spending was $348 billion or $11.2 billion a day, according to the CBO.
Over the last 12 months, the US deficit totaled $1.7 trillion equaling 6.2% of US GDP.
Deficit spending as a % of GDP is above all previous recessionary levels except for the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 2020 pandemic, and World War 2.
At the same time, government expenditures hit $6.5 trillion which is 23% of US GDP.
The government is spending as if we are in a recession.' Unsustainable. (Picture 2) No political party will stop this.
👉🏽Bureau of Labor Statistics, making up numbers: Remember. Jobs are everything.
'The difference between the headline jobs number and the household survey hit 4.1 million in May, the largest difference in history.
The household survey is important because workers are only counted once, even if they hold more than one job.
This data shows that over the last 6 months, 1 MILLION Americans have become unemployed.
The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit a near-record of 8.4 MILLION in May 2024.
Many Americans are now working multiple jobs in an effort to fight inflation.' -TKL
On the 11th of June:
M2 is now positive with rates at 5.5%. And rate cuts/QE/YCC are just a matter of time. The first-rate cut is already in place by the ECB, probably the Fed will do the same in the next two/three months.
So why is M2 important, what should you take away from this all?
M2 (money supply growing) + Debt growing = liquidity growing.
More money (liquidity) means higher asset prices, but it also means more monetary inflation. Oh well, it's about to get really fun in the upcoming months. (Picture 3)
👉🏽'Sky News admits the official inflation data DOES NOT accurately reflect the HUGE increase in prices.'
Great video: https://x.com/RadarHits/status/1800089422744195337
James Lavish: 'Controlling party politicians and establishment economists will never outwardly admit it, but consumers are smart enough to know that prices have not just settled at levels far higher than just a few years ago but are *still rising*.
What they tell you is that 'inflation is easing' or 'inflation is falling'. And what they show you is a highly manipulated index that *admits* a month-to-month or year-over-year measure.
But never this, the ongoing impact to you, the consumer.' (Picture 4)
On the 12th of June:
US inflation falls to 3.3%, lower than expectations.
On the 13th of June:
Yellen: We are creating jobs at a very rapid pace.
(Picture 5)
The US lost 1.2 Million full-time jobs during the last 12 months, but government jobs are booming. Let’s celebrate this job wonder.
On the 14th of June:
Argentina's monthly inflation rate in May was the lowest since 2022, dropping for the fifth consecutive month to 4.2% amid an austerity drive by President Milei.
The annual inflation rate has fallen from 133% in December to 40%. Wonder how? Cut government spending! Don't get me wrong I am not celebrating because this is a monthly inflation number. Now add that to the inflation from the past 10 years. And compound it. It is still off the charts. But hey... baby steps. Slash spending, balance budgets, and bring down taxes so the economy has more to work with. But apparently, that’s too complicated for most governments to figure out.
On the 15th of June:
👉🏽'Institutions like the IMF keep wading into countries' debt problems by getting them into more debt.
There are hardly any countries that went from "developing" to "developed" status over the past five decades. The global monetary system is structured to keep countries dependent.' (Picture 6)
I have said it before and will say it again, especially after reading Alex Gladstein's great book & articles, the IM is just a modern-day colonizer.
👉🏽The cost of insuring against a French default (CDS price) has shot up by 16bps this week. The probability of default is priced at 3.5%. The cost of insuring France's debt against default and the risk premium investors demand to hold French government debt both reached their highest since 2022.
👉🏽 Canada bankrupted 532 companies. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀! Canada is a G7 nation. Cleaning the system I guess, low interest rates, and cheap money allowed a lot of businesses to get off the ground that simply were not viable long-term businesses...or is Canada the new Iceland with many millionaires with billions in debt
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The theme of this year’s Oslo Freedom Forum (OFF): Reclaim Democracy.
Great article by Lyn Alden:
'Implications of Open Monetary and Information Networks'
https://www.lynalden.com/open-networks/
TLDR: Open systems and you really should check out Nostr if you haven't already.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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2024-06-12 10:17:18

Due to sickness no Weekly Recap this week.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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2024-06-04 17:12:03

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'It is incredibly important to understand that Bitcoin is not a piece of software like Microsoft Word, to be endlessly tinkered with.
It is a protocol for value transfer; an immutable foundation on which to build a new monetary order.'
- Vijah Boyapati
'You do not custody the Bitcoin...you only custody the private keys that can spend the Bitcoin.' - Wicked
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
27th of May:
➡️ $290 million worth of Bitcoin has been taken off from Binance in the last few hours.
*on the 29th of May Bitcoin whale withdraws 1,195 BTC ($81.95M) from Binance.
➡️'El Salvador keeps stacking Bitcoin. As of May 27, the nation-state holds a total of ~5,763 BTC worth over $395.8 million.' - CarlBMenger
28th of May:
➡️'BlackRock has been buying Bitcoin for its fund, the Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio' - SEC filing
➡️Bitcoin ETF Update:
Total Net Inflows +632 BTC ($43.3m)
- BlackRock +1505 BTC ($102m) (and flips GBTC!)
- Fidelity +505 BTC ($34m)
- Grayscale -1550 BTC ($105m)
BlackRock is now officially the biggest Bitcoin ETF after overtaking Grayscale.
Incredible achievement in just 4 months!
Grayscale started with OVER 600,000 BITCOIN 4 months ago.
Blackrock had 0. IBIT is killing it. IBIT, Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF, will become the fastest ETF to reach $20b in assets, at 137 days.
Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated 250k Bitcoin (on top of Grayscale's 619k) since January.
BlackRock and Fidelity at the moment own a combined 451,338 BTC worth $30.9 billion for their spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs now hold 236,938 more bitcoin than MicroStrategy.
Supply & demand people, supply & demand!
➡️Health-Tech Semlar Scientific, a company specializing in developing healthcare technology, announced today that its board has adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset.
Semlar Scientific Inc. has bought $40m Bitcoin and adopted a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy. They added over $70,000,000 in market cap on the 28th of May, just by adopting Bitcoin as their primary treasury reserve asset.
The market is trying to tell the 58,000 public companies a valuable lesson...
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is accelerating...
If you don't believe read the Semler Scientific statement below: (picture 2)
➡️Metaplanet directors authorize the purchase of an additional ¥250 million of Bitcoin.
➡️The Nigerian Naira is now worth less than one Satoshi.
➡️Someone just moved $3 billion worth of Bitcoin with $2.8 fees.
$2.8 FEES FOR $3 BILLION TRANSFER. Now try this with the current system, banks can't relate I guess.
➡️El Salvador President, Nayib Bukele, met with Cathie Wood to discuss Bitcoin, new capital markets, and innovation opportunities.
CATHIE WOOD: “President Bukele's determination to turn El Salvador into an oasis for the bitcoin and AI communities - two of the biggest economic and technology revolutions in history - is the reason I believe that its real GDP could scale 10-fold during the next five years.”
The funny part about this statement and the meeting. Five days later she ditches the Ethereum ETF to focus on Bitcoin. Are you paying attention anon?
➡️FINBOLD: “Perhaps the most interesting among the top stocks owned by Soros through the first quarter of 2024 is the shares of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), valued at approximately $135 million.”
29th of May:
➡️Jack Dorsey-backed Bitcoin mining company Ocean Mining has adopted El Salvador as its global headquarters.
➡️'Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms acquires a 9.25% stake in Bitfarms, becoming a major shareholder, after Bitfarms rejected Riot's $950M acquisition offer.' - Bitcoin News
➡️'Mastercard just launched Crypto Credential, which allows you to send Bitcoin to any customer at an exchange with a simple username, instead of a wallet address.' - Bitcoin Archive
I wouldn't use it because of KYC and still not your keys, but great news regarding the institutional adoption of Bitcoin.
30th of May:
➡️In case you missed it, Alex de Vries (Digiconomist), the most quoted source in the Whitehouse's OSTP 2022 report on crypto-mining and historically the most referenced source for mainstream news reporting on Bitcoin and energy, had his methodologies fundamentally discredited in March this year in a peer-reviewed paper by Sai & Vranken:
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1796232365544468899
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096720923000441?via%3Dihub
Misleading journalism needs to continue to be punished by social ossification. 'De Vries was the SBF of the press'. The truth will always prevail!
➡️A record $2 billion worth of Bitcoin taken off from Kraken yesterday. Bitcoin exchange reserves at the lowest ever.
31st of May:
➡️'Legendary cryptographer Ralph Merkle on the power of Bitcoin at $500, exactly 8 years ago.
"It is a new form of life. It is unstoppable." - Pete Rizzo
➡️'Bitcoin firm Unchained partners with the University of Austin to create a $5M endowment fund entirely in Bitcoin. The university plans to hold the Bitcoin for at least five years.' - Bitcoin News
1st of June:
➡️Biden vetos the bill that would revoke the SEC’s SAB 121, maintaining the ban on large financial institutions from taking custody of Bitcoin.
'The President has decided to reject a bill, passed by the majority of US lawmakers in both the House and Senate. Does he think he represents the people’s interest better than those elected to make laws?' - Hunger Horsley
2nd of June:
➡️'Donald Trump to accept Bitcoin Lightning payments for campaign donations.'
This wasn't on my Bitcoin 2024 bingo card, but just my two sats...I wouldn't pay one sat to a politician.
But do you think, that accepting Bitcoin Lightning payments, will change the landscape of politician campaign funding?
➡️Marquette University professor emeritus David Krause describes the Wisconsin pension system's $160 million purchase into a Bitcoin ETF and why the small purchase matters.
Video: https://twitter.com/ts_hodl/status/1797364548388753664
'Worth watching this video, someone always has to go first and someone’s going next. 0.1% of Wisconsin state pension = $160 million. Fully funded pension, trial balloon. Other state pensions on notice.' -Parker Lewis
Do you still think Bitcoin is a Ponzi, now that one of the largest pensions, a well-run one that is fully funded, is allocating to Bitcoin?
3rd of June:
➡️'Australia is set to launch its first spot Bitcoin ETF on June the 4th!
MonochromeAsset's ETF, trading as IBTC on CBOE, will offer regulated Bitcoin exposure with a 0.98% management fee.' - BTCTimes
I hope people 'Down Under' will stick to self-custody. Why...well just look at the next example:
➡️'Japanese crypto exchange DMM confirms 4,502.9 BTC ($305M) hack.
They suspended crypto withdrawals and limited buying activity to "prevent further losses," and warned of delays in withdrawing Japanese yen.
DMM says it will reimburse affected users.' - Bitcoin News
Not your keys, not your coins people! Act accordingly.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
24th of May:
👉🏽Distinction with a difference...
'S&P 500 Total Return in USD terms since Jan 1, 2020: Up 75%.
S&P 500 Total Return in gold terms since Jan 1, 2020: Up 15%.
S&P 500 Total Return in BTC terms since Jan 1, 2020: Down 81%.
"US with Argentine characteristics." Argentine stocks have been up huge...in peso terms.' - Luke Gromen (Picture 3)
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 Unrealized losses in the U.S. Banking System increased to $517 billion in Q1. (Picture 4)
FDIC warns that 63 Lenders are on the brink of insolvency due to banks sitting on $517 billion in unrealized losses.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 27th of May:
👉🏽'China creates $47.5 Billion fund to boost domestic semi-conductor industry after USA stopped selling advanced chips to China.' - Radar
👉🏽 'The Congression Budget Office forecasts that the US budget deficit will not fall below 5% of GDP in the next decade.' - CBO (picture 5)
On the 30th of May:
👉🏽A record $9.3 trillion in government bonds will mature and need refinancing within the next 12 months.
Did someone say debt spiral?
The US needs cheap refinancing, not with the current high rates.(5%) So cutting rates, yes. Print more money, yes. hello inflation (eventually), yes! Who is buying the new debt tho?
👉🏽'In today's post, the authors note that the narratives about declining dollar shares in official reserves, and increasing roles for gold holdings by central banks, inappropriately generalize the actions of a small group of countries.' -New York Fed
The Fed now admits some countries are moving to gold. But says it’s a small group.
The decline in the dollar preferences of a small group of countries (notably China, India, Russia, and Turkey)...'
These four countries make up:
37% of world population
25% of global GDP
19% of global exports
The Fed now admits some countries are moving to gold. But says it’s a small group.
So 37.5% of the world is moving away from dollars towards gold.
A small group of large countries will return to gold (India, China, maybe Russia) and a large group of small countries (like El Salvador) will move to the Bitcoin standard.
Now imagine what will happen when central banks start buying Bitcoin like gold. In almost every category Bitcoin is better than gold.
'So when we are told gold has a value of $15.76 trillion (https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/…), where does that number come from? How can all the gold ever mined over the past 10,000 plus years be accounted for? It can't. It's all nonsense in my opinion Bitcoin fixes this. It fixes the world of value. Every single satoshi ever mined is accounted for and the entire global supply is publically audited and made available for any human being to see and verify every 10 minutes, forever.
Now I ask you. Which seems more real to you and which seems bogus to you? I know. Bitcoin' - Oliver L. Velez
Anyway more on the Fed...
👉🏽FED'S WILLIAMS: 'MONETARY POLICY IS CLEARLY WORKING HOW THE FED WANTS IT TO WORK.'
Lemme quote market strategist Sven Henrich:
'Oh yea, it's clearly working how the Fed wants it to work.
The rich are richer than ever.
The middle class keeps shrinking.
Housing unaffordable for most.
And the poor and vulnerable are stuck with permanently higher prices.
Mission accomplished.
Bravo.'
Just to give you some context on the 'housing unaffordable for the most', and I do focus now only on the US housing market.
The median price of a new home is at $433.500 and remains near record highs. The number of new single-family houses for sale has surged to 480,000 in April, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This came after new home sales were down 7.7% year-over-year last month, the largest drop in 13 months. Excluding the 2008-2009 housing crisis this is by far the largest supply of new homes in US history.
The US economy now has:
1) Slowing GPD growth at 1.3% in Q1. (stagflation?)
2) Stated above, median home prices at all-time high of $434K.
3) 37 months of inflation above 3%.
4) $2 trillion deficits.
5) $34.6 trillion NATIONAL DEBT - record
6) 600k full-time jobs lost in the last 12 months.
On the 31st of May:
👉🏽'Eurozone's inflation rose faster than expected in May ahead of ECB meeting. Overall CPI accelerated to 2.6% in May YoY, up from April's 2.4%. Even worse: downtrend in core inflation reversed w/core CPI ticked up to 2.9% in May from 2.7% in April. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast that consumer prices would rise to 2.5% and predicted that core inflation would be stable.' Holger Zschaepitz
On the 2nd of June:
👉🏽S&P downgrades France’s credit score as the country’s general government debt will increase to about 112% of GDP by 2027 from around 109% in 2023.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The theme of this year’s Oslo Freedom Forum (OFF): Reclaim Democracy.
What is the Oslo Freedom Forum? The Oslo Freedom Forum (OFF) is an international human rights conference series hosted and produced by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF). Bringing together the world’s most engaging human rights advocates, journalists, artists, tech entrepreneurs, and world leaders, we aim to share their stories and brainstorm ways to expand freedom and unleash human potential across the globe.
Believe me...it's worth your time. Below you will find the link to their livestream.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMtqqP4X9Os&t=1239sOnly invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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2024-05-28 21:11:37

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'2024 is the year of Bitcoin mass adoption
- Bitcoin ETFs
- Bitcoin balance sheets
- Bitcoin nation state DCA
- Bitcoin elections' - Tuur Demeester
'Return of a version of "The Delirium of the Milliards":
1924 Berlin was expensive for Germans but very cheap for Americans with their (gold-backed) USDs.
2024 America is expensive for Americans but very cheap for Bitcoiners.' - Luke Gromen
'The US ETFs hold 840,000 Bitcoin ($58B). They have bought this in 4.5 months. During this period the Halving happened, Trump supported it, Yen is collapsing, and M2 has started to increase. If you don’t hold any BTC now I don’t know what to tell you.' -Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
21st of May:
➡️'El Salvador crosses $400 million in Bitcoin holdings.
They are now $81 million in profit' - Bitcoin Magazine
The first governments that adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset will have significant strategic advantages, and El Salvador is leading the pack!
➡️On this day whales accumulated $6.3 Billion worth of Bitcoin.
➡️Bitcoin ETFs bought 3520 BTC ($235m) yesterday (20th of May)
That's 8x ALL the Bitcoin mined. Supply & Demand people.
22nd of May:
➡️'Since adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet, Metaplanet has become the best-performing stock in Japan this week, being halted at a maximum daily gain of +50%for two days in a row.' - Bitcoin News
➡️450 Bitcoin ($31M) is mined every day. ETFs are buying between $200M and $300M of BTC every day. Are you paying attention anon?
For example, Jane Street Group manages 380 Billion Dollars and has 0.1% ($500m) sitting in Bitcoin ETFs. This ONE FIRM could send us to 100k Bitcoin by allocating 2%.
'The US Bitcoin ETFs now hold 850k BTC.
They have added 230k BTC since January 10th.
Only 105k BTC has been mined since then.
That means these ETFs ALONE have taken ALL freshly minted supply off the table, PLUS another 125k coins. They are on average eating double the new supply, every day.' - Hodlonaut
(Picture 1)
➡️The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF sees the biggest inflow in nearly two months with $291 million coming in today.
➡️Jack Dorsey on why Block got into making Bitcoin mining hardware:
"The reason why we want to build this is because it secures the network. It's not just about mining new Bitcoin. It's about validating transactions. And if we have a secure network, we have secure money. And secure money is something that people trust. Businesses can trust. People can trust."
➡️'BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF officially overtakes Grayscale for the most assets under management.' -Bitcoin Archive
➡️'WisdomTree got FCA approval to list Bitcoin-backed ETPs for professionals on the London Stock Exchange. Launch expected May 28th.' - Bitcoin News
23rd of May:
➡️'Global bank Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to break new all-time highs by this weekend and $150,000 price target by the end of this year.' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️'Xapo Bank becomes the first fully licensed bank to integrate the Bitcoin Lightning Network for deposits.' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️'In the past month, only ~6% of Bitcoin has moved—a level of HODLing behavior only surpassed once in October 2023, when Bitcoin was $27,000.
Despite being up 160% over the past year, hardly any coins are changing hands.' -Unchained
➡️Moody’s upgrades El Salvador's credit rating to Caa1 from Caa3. The outlook remains stable. This upgrade reflects a significant decrease in credit risks and a lower likelihood of liquidity stress. Other countries will follow the same path, for example Argentina. More on that below, see the news on the 27th of May.
➡️Bitcoin Whales have been on a WILD run.
+15k BTC in one week. (Picture 2)
Bitcoin's price is finding support from two key factors:
Long-term holders are not selling their Bitcoin as much as they were in March.
New whales are actively buying around $60K, suggesting this price point is a key support level. On top of that, we had a massive Bitcoin ETF inflow last week.
➡️"The easier it becomes to buy Bitcoin, the greater potential for financial disaster," says UK magazine The Spectator. (Picture 3+4)
Yes, that's the whole point! This reminds me of an anti-electricity cartoon from the past century: Same vibe, different day!
I am 100% sure they will blame the next financial disaster on Bitcoin / CrYpTo.
24th of May:
➡️Kenya and Marathon Digital Holdings signed a historic deal for monetizing underutilized energy across Kenya and jointly developing technology projects.
'A lot of energy is stranded and thus wasted.
It’s becoming more and more apparent to smart policymakers to make use of Bitcoin mining to put it to economic use.
Things like AI, hydrogen production, and so forth can’t go to all the remote bandwidth-constrained sites as well.' - Lyn Alden
'Bitcoin mining's future entails
- The development of more renewable energy that otherwise would have been unprofitable to monetize (geothermal in Kenya's case)
- Economically benefitting entire nation-state
- More geographic diversity of hashrate' -Daniel Batten
Bitcoin Mining is still an undervalued real-world use case of Bitcoin. It allows any excess energy anywhere to be used to produce a top-tier, high-demand, global digital asset that can be sold 24/7/365 anywhere on Earth.
➡️Bitcoin transaction fees are at their lowest since early November 2023, averaging $2.77.
➡️'BlackRock and Fidelity now own a combined 445,429 BTC worth $30.6 billion for their spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs hold 231,029 more bitcoin than MicroStrategy.' - Bitcoin Magazine
➡️'This week an anon donated 3 Bitcoin to the Peer-to-Peer Rights Fund in support of the Samourai Wallet defense fund.' -Bitcoin News
Every contribution, big or small, makes a difference.
Donate here: http://p2prights.org
25th of May:
➡️4 years ago 1 BTC = $8,904
Today 1 BTC = $69,032
That's a 675% increase or 67% CAGR
➡️'Bitcoin hashrate moving average fell over 7% after hitting a peak of 633 Eh/s in the days following the halving.
However, there has been a steep rebound in hashrate moving average this week, rising from 586 Eh/s to 612 Eh/s.' - Bitcoin News
So a large increase in hashrate joins the Bitcoin network with the next difficulty adjustment anticipated to be between +5-11%. Ergo the hashrate is already exponentially rebounding post-halving. (Picture 7)
➡️ Donald Trump says "I will ensure that the future of crypto and Bitcoin will be made in the USA…I will support the right to self-custody to the nation's 50 million crypto holders."
He also mentioned commuting Ross Ulbricht's sentence. "He's already served 11 years. We're going to get him home."
First of all, stop conflating Bitcoin with snake oil. Yes, great news a major US presidential candidate committed to protecting the right to self custody.
May I remind everyone that Trump’s DOJ indicted Julian Assange under the Espionage Act, he didn’t free Ross when he was President, & he didn’t pardon Snowden.
Prove? For example Ross's case: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-considers-clemency-for-ross-ulbricht-silk-road-kingpin-convicted-of-drug-and-money-laundering-charges
Bitcoin, he was calling it 'A scam against the dollar': https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57392734.amp
'US BITCOIN ELECTION AGENDA
- Buy 2 million Bitcoin for US national reserves
- Guarantee Bitcoin self-custody rights
- Ban Central Bank Digital Currency
- Free Ross Ulbricht
- Pardon Ed Snowden
- Drop charges against Julian Assange' -Bitcoin Archive
It's crazy to consider how far we've come. Bitcoin is a major topic in the US election. Bitcoin is on the ballot in an increasing number of countries, even the most powerful ones. Other G20 countries have no choice but to follow & discuss Bitcoin. Bitcoin game theory has just started playing out. Gradually then suddenly every country.
'Satoshi was an absolute genius for making the halving year the same as the US presidential election.
I don’t believe it was a coincidence, the man understood incentives!' -BitVolt (Nico)
25th of May:
➡️Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Record Inflows for 9 Consecutive Days
Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January, these investment products have seen total net inflows of over $13.43 billion.
➡️Crazy stat: If you bought Bitcoin with your $1,200 stimulus check in 2020 you'd now have over $12,390. That's quite the return on investment innit? But most people didn't. Now compare that stat with the devaluation (purchasing power) of the US dollar over the same period.
27th of May:
➡️Argentina's Securities Commission met El Salvador's Digital Assets Commission to discuss its experience with Bitcoin as a legal tender.
“We want to strengthen ties with El Salvador and consider a collaboration agreement with them,” said CNV president Roberto E. Silva.
➡️'We have current sources within Greenpeace who have been leaking information to us about the 'change the code' campaign because while they believe in
Greenpeace's mission, they are
* not supportive of greenpeaceusa's campaign
* question the ethics of taking money from Ripple's executive chair Chris Larson
* think it is damaging the Greenpeace brand
* think either that there are bigger issues to fight, or that Bitcoin is a positive force for counteracting climate change. -Daniel Batten
Read the full thread here: https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1795128278493040830
TLDR: Eventually all will, also Greenpeace, bend the knee to the truth.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
24th of May:
👉🏽Nvidia stock, $NVDA, has officially joined the exclusive club of 250,000%+ in all-time returns.
$10,000 invested in Nvidia in 1999 is worth $25.3 million today.
👉🏽'The Group of Seven (G7) Finance Chiefs met in Northern Italy last week. The Discussion Agenda includes:
- Ukraine & The Handling of Russian Financial Assets
- The Role of AI in Finance
- The Global Economic Outlook
- Health Crisis Initiatives
- and International Taxation Policies
Yet, one important topic seems to have been overlooked and is not on the agenda. Again. Global Debt!' -James Lavish
More on the Debt part below segment Marco/Geopolitics.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 20th of May:
👉🏽'Further evidence that inflation is accelerating: The McChicken at McDonald’s is up 201% between 2019 and 2024.
The average price increase across the 5 following items is 141%:
- Medium French Fries
- McChicken
- Big Mac
- 10 McNuggets
- Cheeseburgers
But hey CPI says we only have like 2-3% inflation right? As it turns out money printing is a huge factor.
My advice, stop eating garbage.
👉🏽A million seconds ago was May 8th
A billion seconds ago was 1993
A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C.
The US national debt is now rising by $1 Trillion every 100 days
Now time is scarce, just like Bitcoin. Money's value changes every day. It's getting worse every day as well.
👉🏽Please check the following tweet by Craig Chapiro. The cliff is imminent, not because we as a Bitcoin community are saying it, no because the current financial system is saying it. Even the best-case scenarios (low likelihood compared to mean/worst-case scenarios) proposed by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) put debt to GDP ratios at +115% by 2025.
That is if everything going perfectly. So no pandemics, no wars, no problems, nonnada niente. (Never gonna happen). Once debt/GDP exceeds a certain threshold (we already passed that), a self-sustaining debt spiral is created. Just like the Dutch Empire and the UK Empire witnessed once before.
https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1793296740050726972
Now I am not saying the US (empire) will fall shortly. I am just saying, 'that America's debt has risen from $10 trillion to ~$35 trillion in the time since Bitcoin was created.
That's an increase of 250% since Satoshi launched the code to the world.
More US debt was issued in the last few years than in America's first few hundred years.'
We have seen that pattern before...
Again, the cliff is imminent.
On the 22nd of May:
US Senator Cynthia Lummis says "We are building a pro-crypto army in Congress."
Congressman says CBDCs "threaten to destroy the American way of life. Unlike decentralized digital assets such as Bitcoin. The political landscape has changed in the US.
The next US election will be the first Bitcoin / CrYpTo election in history. More on that further on...
Eventually, Bitcoin is a Trojan Horse, Bitcoin is inevitable and the true path to (financial and maybe also privacy) freedom. Politicians will see the light, maybe at first only because they need votes (again more on that down below, the Trump part) but in the end, they will see the light.
On the 23rd of May:
👉🏽CHINA: Gold Trading Explodes 400% Higher!
- China's central bank bought more than 225 tonnes of gold in 2023.
- Gold price broke a 15-year record recently.
👉🏽'The US Composite PMI, reflecting business sentiment across the Manufacturing and Services sector, spiked to 54.4 in May, the highest level in over two years!' -Jeroen Blokland
👉🏽'30-year US Treasuries are on track for their 3rd worst annual return since 1919.
30-year Treasuries have declined by ~15% year to date after a slight gain of ~2% in 2023.
Over the last 105 years, only 2009 and 2022 have been worse for long-term treasuries.
Meanwhile, $TLT, a popular bond-tracking ETF has plummeted by 40% over the last 4 years.
Year to date, $TLT has fallen by another 6% as 4 interest rate cuts have been priced out from market forecasts. No one wants bonds anymore.' -TKL
On the 24th of May:
👉🏽'US national debt hit a new record of $34.6 trillion in April, up by $1.6 trillion since September 2023.
Total US debt has increased by 47% or $11 TRILLION in just 4 years.
In other words, there is now $267,000 of Federal debt for every US taxpayer.
US debt is on track to DOUBLE in just 8 years, rising from $20 trillion in 2017 to $40 trillion in 2025 if the current pace continues.
Meanwhile, annual interest expense could reach $1.6 trillion by the end of the year if the Fed leaves rates unchanged.' -TKL
For the first time in the history of the United States, interest payments will likely overtake defense spending in 2024. Yikes!
More US data:
👉🏽'New Fed data highlights consumer weakness:
52% of US adults could not handle a surprise bill of at least $2,000 using savings in 2023, the highest share since 2020.
42% of these people could not even cover a $1,000 surprise expense, according to a Fed survey.
Shockingly, almost 1 in 5 respondents could only afford an expense of below $100.
17% of surveyed Americans also said they did not pay all their bills in full in the month before the survey.
Meanwhile, 28% of adults financially struggled last year, the largest share in 7 years.' -TKL
On the 25th of May
👉🏽'Canada is having lots of fun with money printing.
The trend from 2000 - 2020 was a 6.89% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
The trend from 2000 - 2024 is 8.18% CAGR. Your dollars are losing purchasing power faster lately.
Your Canadian dollars are now losing purchasing power 18.73% per year faster than 2000-2020.' - Tom Karadza
CAD is like a melting ice cube! And may I remind you that Canada is a G7 nation!
👉🏽 'The price for unlimited money printing by governments.' - CarlBMenger
(Picture 5) The debt problem is exponential, not linear.
On the 27th of May
👉🏽European Central Bank to cut interest rates in June.
“What we see right now is enough to remove the maximum level of restriction, equal to 4%.
Data over the coming months will help us determine the pace of further easing,” says ECB chief economist Philip Lane.
As mentioned before in my Weekly Recap I think we will see a rate cut by the Fed in Q4 / after the elections. Meanwhile is doing Yield Curve Control with treasury buybacks. Rate cuts are imminent. Ergo, more liquidity, more printing. Prices go up.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Great interview and worth your time/watching.
'Highly recommend this podcast, specifically to hear Saylor's views on changes to bitcoin, how important extreme conservatism is + how much thought should go into several orders of the derivative consequences & impact for all stakeholders, critical to benefit/risk calculus' -Parker Lewis
WBD817 - Bitcoin is Forever Money with Michael Saylor. They discuss:
- Balancing economics, ethics, & engineering
- Sound money, ossification, & sovereignty
- Funding Bitcoin development
- Bitcoin winning the political war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwmyaxpJwocOnly invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
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2024-05-20 20:49:48

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
‘Nearly 1,000 firms have invested since January's launch. Owning $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin ETFs as of last Thursday. By the May 15 filing deadline, we could see a total AUM nearing $5 billion.’
First, they said it's only crazy internet people who own Bitcoin or it is for criminals.
Then they said it's only retail that owns Bitcoin.
Now they see over 500 massive wealth firms, banks, & institutional investors bought Bitcoin in the first 2.5 months of ETFs. A majority (52%) of the US's largest hedge funds are betting on Bitcoin.
I wonder what they will say next...
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
This is an extended Weekly Recap version (6th of May - 20th of May). I hope you enjoy it.
6th of May:
➡️'South Korea's new government will vote to allow spot Bitcoin ETFs in June.' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️$130B wealth manager Hightower just reported owning $68m of Bitcoin through 6 ETFs.
➡️'The US government holds ~212,847 Bitcoin as of April 2024' - Bitcoin News
MicroStrategy, after their latest purchase, now owns more Bitcoin than any country in the world.
7th of May:
➡️Bitcoin exchange inflow hits lowest level since 2015 at 20K BTC. You might wonder if this all has to do with the offramps closing or if people just have 'diamond' hands.
➡️'$429 BILLION asset manager Susquehanna International just reported owning $831M Bitcoin across 10 ETFs! The biggest ownership of Bitcoin ETFs reported to date.'- Thomas Fahrer
Their total ownership is ~$1.2 BILLION, including +$1b in GBTC.
➡️Arkham identified a new US government wallet containing 3,940 Bitcoin ($251M) seized from drug dealer Banmeet Singh in a January hearing.
8th of May:
➡️Argentina to mine Bitcoin using stranded gas with 1,200 Bitcoin mining machines - Forbes
Bitcoin miner Genesis Digital Assets Limited partners with Argentina's YPF Luz to build a Bitcoin mining facility in Neuquén powered by wasted gas from oil fields.
This is the first of its kind in Argentina and turns a pollutant into a valuable energy source.
➡️New research backs up every single major claim of the energy & environmental benefits of Bitcoin
Bitcoin for methane mitigation:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4810964
Bitcoin for renewable buildout:
https://www.mdpi.com/2078-1547/14/3/35
Bitcoin for grid balancing
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4634256
➡️'Hong Kong firm Monolith Management, founded by ex-Sequoia China exec Cao Xi, revealed a $24M investment in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT. This is their 5th largest holding, exceeding their Meta stake by double.' - Bitcoin News
➡️ Bankrupt FTX to pay customers $15 billion in recovered cash - CNBC
'FTX is not paying customers in "FULL" as reported.
Bitcoin is up almost 4x since hitting a $15.5K low in the bear market and is now just above $62,000.
FTX will compensate customers in US dollars at prices set during the bear market, not like-for-like in assets stolen.' -Radar
9th of May:
➡️The US House has voted to repeal the SEC ruling that blocks financial institutions (trusted custodians) from holding Bitcoin for their customers.
➡️Biden Admin would veto proposed legislation that would allow highly regulated financial firms to custody. Joe is completely out of touch and is driving entrepreneurs out of the US.
Congressman Hill criticizes Biden for a veto threat that will effectively ban banks from holding Bitcoin for customers. “Holding reserves against the assets held in custody is NOT standard financial services practice.” "The Biden Admin's SAB 121 is misguided and should be nullified."
➡️European regulator considers allowing Bitcoin exposure to be added to the $12 TRILLION market for UCITS. UCITS are almost 2x bigger than US ETFs!
➡️$570B insurance giant MassMutual reported owning Bitcoin through the Grayscale ETF.
MassMutual bought $100m Bitcoin for its balance sheet in 2021 and was founded in 1851.
10th of May:
➡️Boston-based Bracebridge Capital owns over $307 million worth of Ark’s Bitcoin ETF. In total, they owe $433m in Bitcoin through ETFs. ($100m Blackrock, $26m Grayscale). They went wild basically.
➡️PNC Bank has $10m in Bitcoin ETF exposure across 6 ETFs, per SEC filings. PNC is the 8th biggest bank in the US.
12th of May:
➡️An old Bitcoin wallet from 2011 just moved $30 Million worth of BTC. The owner of the wallet hodled all the way from $2 to $61000.
➡️Over 2,000 investors from mainland China attended the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong. Total attendance: 5,500 - South China Morning Post.
13th of May:
➡️Japanese public company Metaplanet released a white paper on their Bitcoin corporate treasury strategy.
➡️Switzerland's biggest bank UBS owns the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF - SEC filing
➡️El Salvador released a new website that tracks their Bitcoin Treasury. This allows users to view the Salvadoran government's BTC transactions and holdings in real time, enhancing transparency and enabling public auditing of these investments.
El Salvador is buying 1 BTC every day. DCA strategy is the way.
Find El Salvador's bitcoin treasury information here: https://bitcoin.gob.sv/nl/
Survival of the fittest and game theory are well underway. Just imagine if we had this kind of transparency to all government treasury.
https://btctimes.com/el-salvador-reveals-website-to-monitor-360-million-bitcoin-treasury/
More on El Salvador: They mined nearly 474 Bitcoin worth $29 million using volcano-fueled geothermal power in the last three years, Reuters reports.
➡️'A solo miner just mined a block worth 3.319 Bitcoin ($203,000)
The odds of this happening are less than 1 in 1,000' - Thomas Fahrer
➡️'On the 13th of May two Bitcoin wallets, which had been dormant for over 10 years, transferred a total of 1K BTC ($60M). These wallets originally purchased Bitcoin in September 2013 at $124 per Bitcoin.' -BitcoinNews
➡️Ethereum has spent three years above 0.05 BTC.
It's currently breaking down and ETH/BTC is testing its lowest levels in three years. Gotta love it!
➡️'Vanguard and Blackrock have increased their MSTR (MicroStrategy) positions in Q1 2024 by 619,550 shares (28.5% increase over Q4, 2023). Watch what they do, not what they say!' -Jeff Punter
14th of May:
➡️A Wisconsin State Pension Board announces a Bitcoin ETF purchase. They bought $99M of IBIT Bitcoin ETF and became the first state institution to go public with spot Bitcoin ETF holdings.
Believe me, things are warming up! It's only a matter of time before every single state pension fund makes the same move.
Michael Saylor: "There are thousands of pension funds in the United States managing ~$27 trillion in assets. They are all going to need some Bitcoin.
To put this in perspective, the ~27 trillion in assets is more than 2x bigger than Blackrock or roughly equivalent to all the USD in the world.
Why this is important:
Industry paper "Pensions & Investments" interviews Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas on Wisconsin investing into the Bitcoin ETFs: “Pensions are probably the hardest investor type to land,” who likened it to “landing a sailfish.”
Pensions are “very picky, they have access to everything and usually it takes a while for them to bite,"
“And so, the fact that (they) bit that quickly, is just a good sign,” he said.
➡️Oklahoma has become the first State to codify the rights of its citizens to run a node, to mine, and to self-custody their Bitcoin.
Gov. Kevin Stitt put Oklahoma at the forefront of Bitcoin legislation by signing HB3594 into law. (Picture 1)
https://decrypt.co/230962/bitcoin-self-custody-right-law-mining-oklahoma
or read the following note/tweet by Dennis Porter:
https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1790529917199003836
15th of May:
➡️@npub1aa9…v6sm , a great app to buy Bitcoin with, has acquired an additional 1.00295 BTC for ~€57,000 using proceeds from its operational business & excess cash for ~€56,605 per Bitcoin.
➡️Bitcoin reserves at Coinbase gets drained, currently at ~267k, down from 418k early 2024.
➡️Morgan Stanley reporting to have $243M in Bitcoin Spot ETF.
Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542124000355/0000895421-24-000355-index.html
➡️Toronto Dominion Bank has Bitcoin ETF exposure, per SEC filings. Canada's second-largest bank!
16th of May:
➡️'Cornell's BTPI announced a $1M project to research the relationship between Bitcoin and financial freedom across multiple countries.' -Lyn Alden
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/05/btpi-will-research-relationship-between-bitcoin-and-financial-freedom
➡️The world's largest futures exchange CME Group, to launch Bitcoin trading.
➡️'Top Bitcoin ETF Holders of Q1 (updated):
1. Millennium Management ($1.8B)
2. Susquehanna ($1.1B)
3. Bracebridge ($404m)
4. Boothbay ($303m)
5. Morgan Stanley (~$251m)
Bitcoin ETF holders bought $10 billion in Q1. Nearly all of that was in the USA' - Thomas Fahrer
(Picture 2)
➡️'Bitcoin ETFs bought 11,188 BTC, ~5x more than estimated mined Bitcoin.' -BitcoinNews
19th of May:
➡️Someone just moved 16,445 Bitcoin (over $1.1 billion worth) on a Sunday for $7.32.
Mempool tags the transaction as "Overpaid 2x", meaning they could have gotten into the block for only $3.66 in fees.' -BitcoinNews
➡️'17.38% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over 10 years. This is up from 16.1% at the start of 2024.' -BitcoinNews
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
8th of May:
👉🏽 The following thread is a good one by Sam Callahan: https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1788015909497385409
'According to Nasdaq's Global Financial Crime Report, $3.1 trillion in illicit funds flowed through the traditional financial system last year alone. As in good old-fashioned dirty fiat flowing through dirty banks.'
3 things out of this report: https://nd.nasdaq.com/rs/303-QKM-463/images/2024-Global-Financial-Crime-Report-Nasdaq-Verafin-20240115.pdf
1. $3.1 trillion illicit through the traditional financial system.
2. Bitcoin is not even mentioned in the report as an issue.
3. KYC/AML policies have no measurable impact on stopping illicit transactions.
There is a lot of bluster from policymakers about the effectiveness of KYCL/AML. Does anyone know what's the process to implement metrics to measure the effectiveness of these KYC/AML policies?
Anyway, Bitcoin is the problem in our 'financial' world...right?
👉🏽Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon Web Services used 90 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2022, which is more than the country of Colombia - JPMorgan Chase
But noooo, Bitcoin is using way too much energy, innit?
👉🏽'MSCI just announced it is adding Microstrategy, Pure Storage, and Emcor to the MSCI ACWI Index along with a bunch of other adds/drops. Pretty big deal as ACWI has a little over $4T benchmarked to it. Popular with institutions.' - Eric Balchunas
👉🏽Salim Ramji will be the new Vanguard CEO. He used to head up BlackRock's global ETF business. First time ever Vanguard hired an outsider as CEO. Every other one was an internal star and former Bogle assistant.
Remember when we were assured that firing an old CEO had NOTHING to do with Bitcoin? You don't change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you!"
👉🏽‘The Big Short’ Michael Burry has bought a physical Gold ETF, which, at 7.4%, is now the 5th largest holding of his portfolio. Number six is Block (formerly Square), which recently announced a DCA program to boost its Bitcoin holdings further.
You see where I am going, right?' - Jeroen Blokland
🏦Banks:
👉🏽Goldman Sachs has appointed Robert Kaplan, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as its vice chairman.
Kaplan made multiple million-dollar trades in individual stocks and options in 2020.
Then, the Fed slashed interest rates and launched lending and liquidity programs that helped prop up the financial markets.
He quit due to the trades and the conflicts.
After, the Fed itself instituted new trading rules that prohibit officials from owning stocks, bonds, and crypto.' -Unusual Whales
Really! They must abolish the FED as they are not government entities. The Fed speeches are an orchestrated propaganda campaign designed to sustain confidence in a money system backed by nothing but confidence. Just one big revolving door of club members, good old business as usual.
👉🏽The GFC bailout looks like just a blip on the radar vs what the Fed is doing today to support the banks with liquidity via loans/facilities.
And we wonder why the market is up.
This chart blew me away. (Picture 3)
Ergo: The banking system broke in 2023
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 6th of May:
👉🏽'Most people have never seen this chart before.
The S&P 500 grows with the global money supply.
The S&P 500 is a way to concentrate wealth with the wealthy.' (Picture 4)
👉🏽Big Mac went from $0,50 to $8 and lost 40% of its since from 1980 - 2024.
'Further evidence that inflation is accelerating:
US labor costs in the last quarter rose by the most since Q1 2023.
The employment cost index is a broad measure of labor costs closely watched by the Fed.
The index surged by 1.2% in Q1 2024 after a 0.9% increase in Q4 2023, beating all expectations, according to the BLS data.
Labor costs are rising at a comparable pace to mid-2022 when inflation in the US was above 9%.
Wage pressures are accelerating.'- TKL
Inflation and years in which your purchasing power is halved:
2 % 35 years (The goal)
4 % 17 years (Officially we here)
7 % 10 years
10 % 7 years
14 % 5 years (In truth)
17 % 4 years
20 % 3.5 years
Inflation is theft. Bitcoin fixes this
On the 7th of May:
👉🏽US manufacturing and services employment has simultaneously contracted for 3 consecutive months. Over the last 20 years, this has happened ONLY twice, during the 2020 pandemic and 2008 Financial Crisis.
More than 800 companies from the manufacturing and services sectors claim that employment is falling. Meanwhile, according to US jobs data, the US job market has never been stronger. Data indicates that the US has added 100,000+ jobs in 40 straight months, the best streak in US history.
Another disconnect between data and reality.
👉🏽'Within a decade European Union lost about 120 Billion $ in annual foreign direct investment and the US gained about 90 Billion $ per year, but hey let’s regulate AI and introduce a four-day workweek. What needs to happen for European politicians to wake up?'- Michael A. Arouet
Remember this: regulation = uncompetitiveness = wealth migration
Just for clarification, I don't mind having regulations for AI. A vast majority of key experts see existential risk in using AI. But as always the EU is overregulating.
source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?end=2022&locations=EU-US-CN-GB&most_recent_year_desc=false&start=2022&view=bar
More data on this topic. Germany's real household consumption per capita has not recovered from the pandemic and remains weak; household consumption in the US has grown much faster.
Q4 2019-Q4 2023 : -3.4%; Germany +9.0% US
On the 8th of May:
👉🏽US and Japan reportedly agree on FX intervention.
Ergo: The Fed has to open a swap line and flood them (Japan / The World) with dollars.
By doing that they will bail out nation-states and further increase global liquidity.
For more info on this topic, I highly recommend the following article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japan-now-caught-doom-loop
👉🏽Argentina to print its first 10,000-peso note as a result of hyperinflation.
On the 9th of May:
👉🏽US net interest payments as a percentage of federal revenues are set to reach 34% by 2054.
This means that a third of all government revenue would be spent only to service the national debt.
Over the past 8 years, the percentage has already doubled to ~15% and is at its highest in 3 decades.
Meanwhile, nominal annualized interest payments have crossed above $1 trillion for the first time ever.
We could see $1.6 trillion in annual interest expense by the end of the year if the Fed leaves rates steady.
The US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone.
On the 11th of May:
'Shocking stat of the day:
$2.1 TRILLION of excess savings have been wiped out of the US economy since August 2021.
From March 2020 until August 2021, $2.1 trillion in excess savings were built up after $4 trillion of stimulus.
Since then, US households have depleted these savings at a pace of ~$70 billion per month down to -$72 billion in March 2024.
At the same time, US credit card debt has risen by $330 billion to a record $1.1 trillion.
Meanwhile, savings rates in the US declined from 3.5% in February to 3.2% in March, the lowest since November 2022.
Savings are now considered a luxury.' - TKL
On the 12th of May:
👉🏽That‘s the most scary chart I have seen in a while. Unfunded pension entitlements in major European countries are between 300% and 500% of GDP. Mixed with collapsing demographics it’s a recipe for debt disaster. (Picture 5…Unfortunately I can’t share more than 5 pictures on Nostr via Primal, see the article on my website)
👉🏽Data shows that the number of people in the US working 2 full-time jobs is at an all-time high.
On the 13th of May:
👉🏽'Official world gold reserves have reached 1,170 million fine troy ounces, the most since the 1970s.
Over the last 13 years, world central banks' gold holdings are up roughly 21%.
Global gold reserves are now even higher than just before President Nixon broke the US Dollar's link to gold in 1971.
In 2022 and 2023 alone, world central banks bought 1081 and 1037 tonnes of gold, respectively.
Meanwhile, gold is up 15% year to date and 85% over the last 5 years.' -TKL
👉🏽Janet Yellen admits that higher interest rates make the "fiscal challenge" worse. By fiscal challenge, she means the massive deficit, $34 TRILLION debt and it is (too) expensive for the US government to pay its debt at the current interest rate.
FYI: Bloomberg reports the Treasury Department paid '$2 million per minute' in interest to debt holders in March.
In the near future, this will be $2 million per second.
Her colleague in Canada mentioned the following:
👉🏽The governor of the Central Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem issued a warning of the financial collapse of the fiat system:
“The valuations of some financial assets appear to have become stretched. This could increase the risk of a sharp correction that could generate system-wide stress.”
👉🏽The BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics is a unit of the United States Department of Labor, is removing coffee prices from CPI inflation data. Since Q3 2023, coffee prices surged 78%. More fiat manipulation games are at play.
Meanwhile Coffee is down 72% over 5 years in Bitcoin terms, and it is up 129% in dollar terms. Go figure!
On the 15th of May:
👉🏽US core inflation came out in line with expectations, down to 3.6% y/y from 3.8%
The last time Core CPI was 3.6% the Fed funds rate was 0.08% and a rate hike was a year out.
Today it’s 5.33%. The US Inflation Rate has now been above 3% for 37 consecutive months, the longest period of high inflation since the late 1980s/early 1990s.
1. This means that these inflation numbers are building on multiple years of already inflated prices.
2. This means that overall prices are up over 19.5% in less than 4 years.
1. That is an average of 5.5% per year effectively wiping out ONE FIFTH of the US Dollar's purchasing power. Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation.
In other words, one year ago, the inflation rate dropped to 3% and has averaged 3.3% since then. At this rate, the USD will lose 48% of its purchasing power over the next 20 years.
That's all you need to know. Buy Bitcoin.
👉🏽Treasury bonds have experienced their greatest four-year loss in over 100 years from April 2020 through the recent lows. (Picture 6, Unfortunately I can’t share more than 4pictures on Nostr via Primal, see the article on my website)
Are we shifting from inside money (treasuries) to outside money (hard money like gold or Bitcoin)?
Central banks are buying TWICE as much gold as before.
ETFs are buying 4.5x more Bitcoin than is being MINED/
It's the era of hard money, and there is no second best:
Bitcoin
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
"In modern times, our money has been broken, because it has been centralized, closed, and corrupted in 160 different ways
If we’re going to fix it in the digital age, a powerful method would be to make it more decentralized, open, and transparent so that it can strengthen people as individuals while at the same time shattering the financial silos that separate us
With open-source money, anyone can hold it, anyone can send it, anyone can bring it with them, anyone can build new technologies that make it better, and everyone across borders can be connected by it"
Impossible not to be bullish on the future after watching Lyn's masterful video
Fix the money, fix the world - Alex Gladstein
Or to put it in Lyn Alden's words:
'I produced a half-hour animated overview of the Broken Money subject matter.
It covers the history of money, the development of banking, and how new technology changes the way we interact with money over time.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk_HWmmwiAs
On top of that the latest newsletter by Lyn Aldens, discusses money-printing, price inflation, and the bond market's inability to forecast it.
https://www.lynalden.com/may-2024-newsletter/
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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2024-05-15 05:15:59

MSCI has added 42 securities, including Microstrategy, to the MSCI Global Investable Market Index.
Your friends, colleagues and parents will ‘own’ Bitcoin and they even don’t know it. 🤣
Gradually, then suddenly!🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
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My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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2024-05-14 21:03:45

Due to some personal stuff,
No weekly recap this week.🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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2024-05-07 05:22:40

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'Replacing the failed illegal, immoral, illegitimate Ponzi scheme called the US$ is already happening. In case you missed it, the US$ is at least 2 years into an unwinding debt/death spiral that cannot be stopped. Bitcoin replaces the greatest fraud in human history. Period.
The world is moving away from fiat currencies that can be printed and confiscated. While central banks embrace the old (gold) or create a new (digital) fiat-currency (CBDC), I hope the people will be embracing the future with Bitcoin' -Bitcoin Friday
'Over the last year, the US Government borrowed approximately $99,802 per second.' -James Lavish
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
29th of April:
➡️'A solo miner just mined a block worth 3.433 Bitcoin worth $218,544.
The odds of this happening are around 1 in 5,000.' - Bitcoin Magazine
30th of April:
➡️'Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs were predicted to have $300 million inflows on the first day.
Instead, they merely had $11m in total trading volume.'
This is in comparison to the $655 million in first-day cumulative volume for the US-based Bitcoin ETFs.
For me, the whole Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF was already way overhyped, but liquidity is liquidity, supply & demand is supply & demand. It is still a demand that wasn't there before, Bitcoin is a global asset. A bit further in this segment, you will see that the Hong Kong ETF is catching up though.
➡️If you are a lawmaker, think tank, or policymaker, take a look at this important resource from Satoshi Action. Their latest paper, "Promoting State Financial Innovation: Enhancing State Banking Powers," delves into the federal government's control over the banking sector and explores potential strategies to counteract these challenges:
https://www.satoshiaction.io/debanking
Thread: https://twitter.com/Dennis_Porter_/status/1785343073490284780
➡️ Coinbase rolled out Bitcoin Lightning Network integration.
➡️'Nasdaq-listed Alliance Resources, a $2.8b coal mining company, is mining Bitcoin and currently holds 425 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The company has additionally adopted the new FASB accounting standards for its holdings.' -Dylan LeClair
I am not surprised though, this is just inevitable. Any energy company should follow suit if they have a surplus of energy (stranded energy) you can convert (monetize) that instantly and profitably into cash for your balance sheet. The new FASB standards allowing fair value accounting for Bitcoin will encourage greater adoption.
2nd of May:
'MicroStrategy launches an enterprise platform for building decentralized identity applications on Bitcoin — MicroStrategy Orange.
The Bitcoin Inscription DID method (did:btc) uses inscriptions in witness data to store and manage DIDs, leveraging UTXOs for DID control.' - Dylan LeClair.
"The Bitcoin Inscription DID method (did:btc) uses the Bitcoin blockchain exclusively to store and retrieve DID information. UTXOs on the chain are used to control DIDs. Inscribing data in the witness of transactions allows for greater extensibility and verbosity when creating DID documents while reducing fees and block space consumed."
Source: https://microstrategy.github.io/did-btc-spec/
Personally, I think it is interesting to see MicroStrategy beginning to deploy products for Bitcoin. If that's a good thing, dunno, I am not a programmer. But this sounds and feels like Nostr, so why not just use Nostr...?
➡️'Jack Dorsey announces that each month Block will be DCA'ing 10% of their monthly gross profit from Bitcoin products into purchases of Bitcoin for investment.
They plan to purchase Bitcoin on a monthly cadence utilizing TWAP orders, starting April 2024.' -Bitcoin News
➡️Senator Cynthia Lummis dares the US Department of Justice about Bitcoin self-custody.
"COME AND TAKE IT"
Power move, your keys...your coin!
➡️ Sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and endowments will start trading Bitcoin ETFs in the coming months - BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets
3rd of May:
➡️'Bitcoin is at 4.7% world adoption, this is the same as Jan 1999 for Internet Adoption.
You are still early... and that's backed by the best data available.'
This is using the latest data available across many studies. See: https://woocharts.com/bitcoin-total-users/…
- Willy Woo
➡️'Hong Kong asset manager Yong Rong just reported owning $38m of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.
The largest holding by an asset manager in quarterly filings so far.' - Eric Balchunas
➡️Jack Dorsey pens a letter to shareholders of Block, explaining "why the hell [the company] is spending so much time on Bitcoin. (Picture 2)
4th of May:
➡️More on Jack Dorsey, whether you like him or not, Bitcoin is powered by philanthropy, not VC funds.
'OpenSats has received an additional donation of $21M from startsmall - Jack's philanthropic initiative.
$15,000,000 going to our General Fund.
$5,000,000 to our Nostr Fund.
$1M to our operations budget.'
This is what 'putting your money where your mouth is' looks like. This is massive and extremely generous. A+ for supporting Bitcoin development and Nostr (open protocols).
➡️ 'Last week on Friday marked the first time none of the Bitcoin ETFs saw negative flows.
In fact, GBTC saw over 4X in the inflows of BlackRock.' - Bitcoin News
5th of May:
➡️'Total Bitcoin held on exchanges has fallen by 360,000 ($22.9B) over the last year. ' -Thomas Fahrer
6th of May:
➡️'Bitcoin whales accumulated 47K Bitcoin in the past 24 hours. We’re entering a new era," CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on Saturday.' - Bitcoin News
➡️Today an old wallet from 2011 just moved $44 Million worth of BTC. The owner of the wallet hodled all the way from $2 to $65000.
➡️Hong Kong's new spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $230M in assets under management (AUM) during their first week.
China AMC was the most successful with $116M, followed by Bosera International & HashKey Capital at $57M, and Harvest Global Investment also at $57M.
➡️ 'Bitcoin has officially processed over 1 BILLION transactions all time.' -Pete Rizzo (foto)
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile reached a new all-time high of $189 BILLION in Q1 2024.
This is a $19 billion increase from their cash balance seen in Q4 2023 and a 70% increase in cash since 2022. To put this in perspective, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash balance is larger than the market cap of Starbucks and Target combined.
When asked about this, Warren Buffet said "I don’t mind at all, given current conditions, building our cash position." - TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 30th of April:
👉🏽'Current US Debt is 34.7 trillion.
To give an idea of how big that is, if you stacked $1 bills, you would have enough money to stack from here to the moon 9.86 times.
The math below for the data geeks:
The thickness of a US dollar bill is 0.0043 inches.
Average distance to the Moon: 384,400 km.
1 inch = 2.54cm so 1000 dollar bills stacked is 0.0043x2.54x1000 = 10.922cm
so 100,000 is 10.922m
so 100,000,000 is 10922m (10.92km)
so 100,000,000,000 (100 billion) is 10922 km
so 1,000,000,000,000 (1 trillion) is 109,220km
so 34.7 trillion is 34.7x109,200 = 3.790million km =
9.86 trips to the moon.'
9 times people, too big to comprehend and everyone just thinks: 'Oh well. Doesn't affect me.'
The debt will get bigger & bigger and the Ponzi scheme will keep going as long as citizens stay uneducated regarding Monetary History and what money is. The fall of empires (the Romans, the Dutch, the UK, and now the US) is directly correlated to the debasement of money.
On the same day...
👉🏽US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I AM CONCERNED ABOUT WHERE WE'RE GOING WITH THE US DEFICIT.
The main question should be...at what point are they alarmed or panicked? And when the shit is hitting the fan are they going to warn you?
Just a thought.
1st of May:
👉🏽'The US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023, according to the BED report released by the BLS last week.
BED data tracks quarterly changes in employment at all private businesses in the US economy.
Meanwhile, US nonfarm payroll data showed that the US labor market added 494,000 new jobs in Q3 2023. This is a WHOPPING 686,000 difference in job count over just one quarter.
The BED data from the BLS suggests that the final labor market revisions released in 2025 will be MUCH lower than the headline-reported job numbers.'- TKL
TLDR: The numbers are fake. What is happening is outright data manipulation and nobody gaslights harder than the government... apparently or they aren't capable enough. Pick one.
'US Treasury announces first treasury buyback operation since 2002
The US Treasury is launching its first buyback program since 2002, scheduled to start on May 29, 2024. The program is designed to improve liquidity in the Treasury market and is expected to run through July 2024. During this period, the Treasury plans to hold weekly liquidity support buybacks of up to $2 billion per operation, with up to $500 million allocated for TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). This initiative aims to ensure the Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid in the world, addressing concerns about market functioning and resilience.' - MartyParty
IMO: This is a bank bailout. Treasury QE is on its way.
3rd of May:
👉🏽M2 Money Supply has flipped positive. (Picture 3)
The last time M2 increased, the Bitcoin bull market ripped.
👉🏽Everyone and their mother is talking about unsustainable US fiscal deficit and debt.
Take a look at off-balance-sheet pension entitlements in Southern Europe at 500% of GDP. Combined with collapsing demographics it’s a severe debt crisis in the making. What’s the solution? (Picture 4)
Why Bitcoin is my pension. Well, most of the people in my generation understand that the pension system is a Ponzi scheme. The boomers enjoy on average 1800 €/month pension. My generation might get even more in nominal terms in 20 years, but the real purchasing power of those future pensions is weak to at least. With Bitcoin, my purchasing power is getting better and better. As a European with kid(s)...the solution is leaving at some point before the collapse because they probably will port over the Dutch pensions into the European ones. The question is though, where? With Bitcoin, I will grant myself and my family some optionality.
👉🏽"This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy.
Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy, and he can't even explain why governments borrow money in the currency they print out of thin air.
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1786277466824466896
It's a clip from the award-winning documentary "Finding the Money". - Arnaud Bertrand
Honestly one of the best motivational speeches for Bitcoiners I’ve ever seen. When this is all said and done everyone will agree once again that fiat money is a Ponzi and pretend like they held that opinion the entire time. If this video doesn’t convince you to buy Bitcoin you’ll never understand it.
4th of May:
👉🏽'The cost of buying a home in the US rises to $2,750/month, the second highest ever recorded, according to Reventure.
Before the pandemic in 2022, the average home in the US would cost $1,400/month.
In other words, it is now 100% MORE expensive to buy a home in 2024 compared to 2020.
Even at the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, the average home payment peaked at $1,550/month.
The average US family would need to spend 44% of their PRE-TAX income to buy a home today.' -TKL
Remember: The United States dollar has lost over 25% of its purchasing power since January 2020. The US government has issued a whopping $11 TRILLION of debt over the last 4 years.
By comparison, it took the US 220 years to add the first $11 trillion of Federal debt.
Unsustainable!
👉🏽The US has added $100,000 in Federal debt EVERY SECOND over the last year.
Since March 1st, the US has been adding a staggering $10 billion in debt PER DAY.
That's $417 million per hour, $6.9 million per minute, and $115,740 per second.
As interest rate cuts are priced out, we could see $1.7 TRILLION in annual interest expense just one year from now.
Even if the Fed cut rates 6 times this year, interest expense will still hit $1.2 trillion next year.
Ironically, the US government needs lower interest rates more than anyone.
And in March, the Treasury Department paid out about $89 billion in interest to debt holders — or roughly $2 million per minute.
Source: https://archive.ph/7MzeX
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Great panel discussions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA4jzHIPj7A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQ0o2Do4n5k
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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2024-04-29 19:19:00

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'The road to independence and autonomy from all kinds of systems is a journey that needs effort and time on your part. Bitcoin is the same.' -Bitcoin Friday
'Over the last year, the US Government borrowed approximately $99,802 per second.' -James Lavish
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
'If, like many of us, you feel a bit taken aback by events of the past week in Bitcoin, you may be wondering about what you can do, practically, to maintain your ability to transact freely and to preserve your privacy.'
Great thread by Freddie New, worth your time: https://twitter.com/freddienew/status/1784218269542498318
22nd of April:
Swiss Bitcoiners to launch a petition for the National Bank to buy Bitcoin for its national reserves.
"By including Bitcoin in its reserves, Switzerland would mark its independence from the European Central Bank. Such a step would strengthen our neutrality."
They need over 100K signatures to trigger the vote. Technically, it's not a petition, but a Popular Initiative, which is quite different. This concise amendment allows the Swiss National Bank flexibility in implementation. The initiative aims to spark a debate about Switzerland's future amid global uncertainties, emphasizing sovereignty and neutrality.
But the Chairman of the Swiss National Bank said the following: "We have not yet decided that we want to invest in Bitcoin.
Currency reserves are international payments:
1. They have to be liquid.
2. They have to be sustainable.
3. And we have to be able to see and buy them." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️In 2023 I have said the following multiple times regarding politicians & Bitcoin: "My personal opinion. Be wary of politicians who promise to give you exactly what you want. Politicians are just politicians! Bitcoin doesn't need politicians, politicians need Bitcoin (and votes). Don't lose the plot. And stop larping! Stay humble & stack sats."
A lot of people on Bitcoin Twitter, telegram, and so on were larping and routing for RFK. jr.
Last week he made the following statement:
“I’m gonna put the entire US budget on blockchain", “Every American can look at every budget item in the entire budget, anytime they want, 24 hours a day.”
“We’re gonna have 300 million eyeballs on our budget!”
This kind of statement reveals he doesn't get any of this, does he? On February 24' he also mentioned that he is buying ETH for his kids. Time to study Bitcoin RFK or is it just another fiat politician like Javier Milei (yes I am still not convinced)? Trying to gather as much support as possible, then crawl back to central bankers if elected.
'If the government wants to publish real-time budgets they can already do this on their websites. The blockchain adds nothing to this. The problem is reporting, not storage. This is no different than saying the government will publish their budget to “the cloud”.'- Yan
➡️Bitcoin may be due for a surge, as the MVRV ratio dips below its 90-day average again.
Historically, this has led to a 67% gain on average.
➡️ 'BlackRock now holds 273,596 Bitcoin worth $18 billion for its spot Bitcoin ETF.
BlackRock's ETF holds 59,350 more bitcoin than MicroStrategy.' - Bitcoin Magazine
➡️ S&P 500 company Raymond James subsidiaries declare holdings of Bitcoin ETF GBTC worth $3m.
Combined AUM $625B.'- Julian Fahrer
Although it is only $3M to me it's a sign, that the institutions are coming.
24th of April:
➡️26+ Bitcoin companies signed a letter to FinCEN against proposed surveillance rules that would seriously harm privacy by effectively prohibiting basic Bitcoin best practices such as not reusing addresses and collaborative Bitcoin transactions. (Picture1)
25th of April:
➡️FBI warns Americans against using non-KYC Bitcoin and crypto money transmitting services.
It's becoming clearer that the U.S., but also here in the EU governments pursue surveillance policies and work to suppress the rights of their citizens to (financial) privacy and financial opportunity. They don't like competition. They don't believe in a real free market.
Remember "KYC is a security hole. Businesses are just bullied/forced by governments to collect customer information. It’s really difficult to secure information in the internet age. Some of the largest and most capitalized companies still get hacked regularly." - Gabor Gurbacs
1. Approve ETFs to create a honeypot.
2. Criminalize privacy tools by labeling it ML.
3. Go after self-custody Bitcoin by labeling it black market.
4. Execute 6102 on ETF honeypots.
*all while the price of real BTC pumps really hard and game theory plays out on the global stage.
It is so freaking obvious.
These actions directly incentivize the development of decentralized protocols by anonymous devs. Instead of scaring people, they lit the fire.
"They're going to go after self-custody because they need capital controls to properly execute financial repression. Capital is sufficiently captured in walled-garden ETFs. Widely adopted self-custodial Bitcoin used as an MoE with privacy tools present an existential threat."
Anyway why do we need privacy, why does the world need privacy, and why do we need uncensorable money:
https://journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-to-dictator-proof-your-money/
➡️"The State of Ohio has officially introduced a bill to protect 'fundamental Bitcoin rights'.
The right to buy & sell Bitcoin.
The right to mine Bitcoin
The right to run a full node
The right to self-custody your digital assets" - Dennis Porter
➡️ "Morgan Stanley is shifting to enable its 15,000 brokers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to their clients.
This is a big change from their "if they ask" approach, which is how they've managed ETF allocations thus far." -Thomas Fahrer
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees its streak of 71 straight days of inflows come to an end, bringing in $0 yesterday. IBIT had the 10th longest streak of inflows in ETF history.
➡️ '$140B Global Retirement Partners has reported exposure to 7 Bitcoin ETFs + 1 Bitcoin mining ETF in SEC filings. GRP has more than 1.6 MILLION retirement accounts.' - Bitcoin Archive
26th of April:
➡️Japanese public company Metaplanet has announced it purchased ¥1b ($6.25m) of Bitcoin, equivalent to ~30% of the company's current market cap.
➡️ BNY Mellon reported owning shares in BlackRock and Grayscale Bitcoin ETFs - SEC filing
America's oldest bank is buying Bitcoin...
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 no news
🏦Banks:
👉🏽US prepared for the potential failure of a major Wall Street bank, says FDIC.
👉🏽Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Bank Failures (March, 2024):
"I’m sure there will be bank failures, but this is not the big banks."
Last night, the 26th of April, Republic First Bancorp officially collapsed and was seized by regulators.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 22nd of April:
'Emerging market countries (excluding China) owe a staggering *$421 billion* of government debt this year
The majority of this is owed to multilateral institutions, foreign creditors, the IMF, and the Paris Club (deferred debt from the IMF, etc)'
You can also call this financial slavery or financial colonialism.
On the 25th of April:
👉🏽'For those who do not understand what just happened:
First, Q1 2024 GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% which is less than HALF of the 3.4% Q4 2023 number.
This reading is roughly 50% BELOW Goldman Sachs's expectations.
But it gets even worse.
At the same time, the US Core PCE Price Index soared from 2.0% to a staggering 3.7%.
This crushed estimates of 3.4% and further suggests that inflation is on the rise.
We have a weakening economy with rising inflation.
The worst possible outcome for the Fed.' - TKL
(Picture 2)
Ergo from "transitory" to "soft landing" to stagflation.
the work product of academics with over 800 PhDs at the Federal Reserve.
I let James Lavish do the talking:
"A Fed nightmare. When GDP (economic activity) slows down, yet prices continue rising (stagflation), and the government refuses to curb reckless deficit spending, this puts the Fed and Treasury in an impossible position that no matter what they do, it will lead to issuing more and more Federal Debt. This leads to the need to monetize the debt with more money printing, inflation surges, rates rise, and we do it all again."
QE Forever!
Now have a look at the following chart posted by Luke Gromen. (Picture 3)
The rest of the world started to wise up back in 2024. (remember the clip by Putin in 2014 saying how the Dollar/the US is a weapon and fucking everything up), moving away from continuing to fund US government spending & stupidity. This trend has intensified after Covid, countries are now parking their savings in Gold and eventually in Bitcoin.
"The Dollar is the emperor walking down the street naked."
Who is buying post-2014 (red line): The Fed, US banks, MMFs, and foreign tax shelters.
👉🏽President Biden proposes a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in history.
The proposal also includes a 25% tax on unrealized gains for high-net-worth individuals.
👉🏽'Savings rates in the US fell from 3.5% to 3.2%, the lowest since November 2022, according to Zerohedge.
Over the last year, savings rates have fallen from 5.2% to 3.2%.
All as credit card debt continues to push above a record $1.1 trillion with 25%+ interest rates.
On the 26th of April:
👉🏽 Currently the Yen is imploding. Japan's bonds and currency are crashing again. Now the following thread will give you a great overview and help people to understand why this is important and what is happening. https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull/status/1784020167141318860
The Japanese have lost 6% of their purchasing power in the last 3 weeks.
The Japanese were the first to "experiment" with QE, in their 1989 property crash. The US, then the UK then the EU copied them in 2008-2010 as they had no better ideas. So, the demise of Japan today, we can see happening to the rest of us in 10-15 years... or maybe less.
Read the thread, because it will show you why it is important to self custody your Bitcoin, and why Bitcoin is important.
On the 27th of April:
👉🏽The United States dollar has lost over 25% of its purchasing power since January 2020.
On the 28th of April:
'The US government has issued a whopping $11 TRILLION of debt over the last 4 years.
By comparison, it took the US 220 years to add the first $11 trillion of Federal debt.
Within the next 2 months, total US debt is on track to cross above $35 trillion for the first time in history.
Since June, the US debt has been rising by $1 trillion every 100 days.
If the current pace continues, another $11 trillion will be added in just three years putting us at ~$45 trillion by 2027.' (foto)
Anyway to put it in some perspective, over 75% of U.S National Debt was created after Bitcoin’s 1st block….
(Picture 4)
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
A masterclass by Saylor. (16min) This is next level. This is a lesson in financial literacy.
https://twitter.com/bleighky/status/1783551971682640241
TLDR: He is playing chess while everyone else plays checkers.
Full interview: https://youtu.be/bUfVLzNdOyc?feature=shared https://youtu.be/bUfVLzNdOyc?feature=shared
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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https://m.primal.net/IBSv.jpg
https://m.primal.net/IBSy.jpg

2024-04-23 21:19:24

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'If you made $500.000 per day, every single day since the Great Pyramids were built, you would have less than half of what the US government has borrowed since June.'
Although this quote is a bit outdated it is actually nuts when you contemplate it...perspective is nice when it comes to large numbers.
Let me do the math for you: 4.700(years) * 365 (days/year) * 500.000$ (/day) = 857.750.000.000 - Less than a Trillion
(barring the likely inaccuracy of our understanding of the Pyramids timeline)
Which means you would still have less than 3% of what the US government has in total debt.
No matter your thoughts on Bitcoin, think about those numbers for a minute and let that sink in.
After that, you should probably buy some Bitcoin.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before we start I want to share some deep knowledge:
"Bitcoin didn't appear out of thin air - it is the result of decades of work. Many digital currency projects failed before they succeeded. Understanding how we got here will help you understand where we're going. Learn the history behind Bitcoin here:" - Jameson Lopp
https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/history.html
16th of April:
➡️Bitcoin Core 27.0 released:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/release-notes/release-notes-27.0.md
TLDR: Bitcoin has now better privacy by default. An important and welcome change to Bitcoin core, by finally supporting encryption between nodes. This is a massive improvement.
For the technical readers of the Weekly Recap, I would recommend to following article and podcast
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/433/
https://bips.dev/324/
➡️Google has opened a new office in El Salvador to support the country’s digital transformation and modernization of government services. Furthering President Bukele’s goal of turning the country into a tech hub. Bukele managed to lower crime, a growing economy, and higher foreign investment + more tourism.
Eat that IMF
➡️BYBIT RESEARCH: "With only 2 million Bitcoin left, if we assume a daily inflow of $500 million to Bitcoin Spot ETFs, the equivalent of around 7,142 bitcoins will leave exchange reserves daily, suggesting that it will only take nine months to consume all of the remaining reserves." -Bitcoin News
➡️ "$400 Billion Banco Do Brasil holds BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF
It is the BIGGEST financial institution in Latin America!"- Bitcoin Archive
➡️"Mr. 100" is an unknown entity known for buying 100 Bitcoin every day since Nov 2, 2022. They now hold 60.600 BTC (!) worth $3.8 Billion ($1.6 Billion in profit)
Due to the size of the investment, many people speculate this is a nation-state buying Bitcoin. But who is it?" - Bram Kanstein
Great thread: https://twitter.com/bramk/status/1780243283060371717
I personally and I really do hope it is Brunei. They are mining Bitcoin and hopefully also buying Bitcoin.
But probably it is an exchange. Some people say this is an exchange wallet by Upbit Global.
17th of April:
➡️'Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs to start trading by 30th April and could bring in $25 billion: Matrixport and OSL reports.' -Radar
➡️Last week I wrote a bit on UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He was referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”.
'Fifty years after his death, Mises gets more downloads in three days than what 95% of living economists get in their entire lifetime. Regurgitating fiat propaganda may give you fiat jobs & titles, but pursuing truth gives you immortality.'- Saeifedean Ammous
➡️Blackrock spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT closing the $2.3B gap on Grayscale's GBTC in assets, could be ahead by month's end, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas
➡️ Now that the halving has passed us, and Bitcoin has become the hardest money in the world. Bitcoin’s most explosive gains are typically post-halving. Great chart from VanEck. (Picture 1)
18th of April:
Just the IMF putting time, effort, and money into reporting on Bitcoin.
They published a paper on Bitcoin cross-border flows, and here are three major takeaways:
'1.) The study provides evidence that increased Bitcoin activity occurs as investors move away from risk assets and supports the findings of other studies that Bitcoin can be used to hedge global uncertainty.'
2.) The study concludes that people appear to be turning to Bitcoin to flee instability in their local economies and currencies and to circumvent capital controls.
3.) The findings highlight that Bitcoin flows are typically larger in emerging and developing markets, like Argentina and Venezuela, compared to advanced economies with sophisticated financial markets.' - Sam Callahan
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2024/04/05/A-Primer-on-Bitcoin-Cross-Border-Flows-Measurement-and-Drivers-547429#:~:text=Bitcoin%20cross%2Dborder%20flows%20respond,to%20avoid%20capital%20flow%20restrictions
To sum it up the IMF just said :
1. Bitcoin is increasingly used as a hedge against risk
2. Bitcoin is used as freedom money in autocratic regimes
3. Bitcoin’s biggest use case is the global south to protect against currency debasement and financial instability
Cope from the IMF? The IMF just realized that Bitcoin nullifies the need for their existence.
For sure it is a surprising study, but I am not surprised by the outcome.
➡️Riot has started mining Bitcoin at its new Corsicana Texas facility.
With a capacity of 1 GW, it is projected to be the biggest in the world.' - Pierre Rochard
➡️ Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin is a fraud and a Ponzi scheme.
- JP Morgan funds hold Bitcoin
- JPMorgan, His firm is an Authorized Participant (AP) for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF and gets paid for trading “fraud”.
➡️Binance dumps over 16,000 Bitcoin to back up their SAFU fund with ~$1 billion USDC
➡️'When Nobel Peace Prize nominee Félix Maradiaga tells you that Bitcoin is truly a tool for freedom after discussing the egregious human rights violations carried out by the Ortega regime, you listen.'
https://twitter.com/btcpolicyorg/status/1780983728858087893
Bitcoin serves as a tool to ensure human rights. Important for all world citizens, but especially for those living in Africa & South America.
19th - 20th of April:
Now I can explain to you what the halving is, but I rather let some Bitcoin OG's do that:
'The Bitcoin halving is not a day to celebrate because the price will immediately go up (it probably won't) but because it's a quadrennial reminder that we now have a means of saving free of debasement and resistant to censorship. For that I'm thankful.
Thank you, Satoshi' - Vijay Boyapati
'The Bitcoin halving is an anticipated event, one of those Bitcoin holidays that happen every once in a while. Along with Soft Fork Activation and various financial instrument introduction days, it's one of those not-quite-predictable days that occur every few years which give Bitcoiners reason to pay attention and mainstream media to speculate.'- Jimmy Song.
'Every node on the Bitcoin network divides the block height by a fixed issuance halving interval, 210,000 blocks. Rounding to the nearest whole number gives us how many halvings to apply to the 50 BTC initial per-block subsidy.
Halvings are applied by "right shifting" the binary representation of the subsidy, where the last bit is dropped and a zero is prepended in front. Each right shift applied causes a halving of issuance.' - Pierre Rochard (picture 2)
Andreas Antonopoulos explaining the halving:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwkRsp0gqX4&feature=youtu.be
The halving block, block 840.000, had 37.6 Bitcoin worth of fees... It wasn't just blocked 840,000 that had high fees, over the next 5 blocks, we had fees of 4.486, 6.99, 16.068, 24.008, and 29.821 BTC respectively. The fees are the highest it's ever been. This situation in Bitcoin is unprecedented.
If you want to know more on this topic (high fees - post halving) I highly recommend:
https://twitter.com/jimmysong/status/1781518918001078441
➡️'In the first 60 blocks since the 4th Bitcoin halving, miners have collected 860.2 BTC in transaction fees alone. Equivalent to over $54m, this has already smashed the previous single-day all-time high transaction fees of $24m.' - Jameson Lopp
21st of April:
'In the 130 blocks post-halving, Bitcoin miners earned 1,675 BTC ($109 million)
Of this, 75% (1,262 BTC worth $82 million) came from transaction fees.
For context, miners received 1,349 BTC in fees from April 1 to April 19.' - Bitcoin News
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'US Treasury Bills now yield 4 TIMES more than the S&P 500's dividend, the most since the Dot-com bubble.
Over the last 100 years, a multiple this high has only been seen ONE time.
By comparison, even in the 2008 Financial Crisis, this metric peaked at ~3x.
With interest rate cuts being priced out, we likely see interest rates on bonds continue to push higher.
This will keep US T-Bill rates elevated and perhaps push this ratio to its 2000 highs.
Yet another Dot-com bubble similarity.'- TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 16th of April:
👉🏽You are being told that we are in the greatest economy ever. Yet, every indicator shows we are in a terrible failing economy across the board, the US, Europe, etc. Stagflation is here and will only accelerate.
Although this is just a graph/ratio, AI will surely save us, right guys? (Picture 3)
We all know what followed, right? Populist leaders (please look around in your country) and a world war...
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
- Ernest Hemingway
The US military is in a symbiotic relationship with the Dollar. If one part fails, it will drag the other down. Do understand that once Rome also spent more on 'defense' than others. Fiat currency is always about political faith. Always.
(Picture 4)
👉🏽"The IMF has cut Germany's economic growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, the IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from the previous 1.6%. IMF said this is due to persistently weak consumer sentiment. In the long term, the IMF's main concerns for Germany are structural problems such as the decline in the working population and obstacles to investment." - Holger Zschaepitz
I think the first time I spoke publicly on this matter was like three years ago. Germany is a slow-motion train wreck without cheap Russian natural gas. The green agenda isn't working, closing nuclear power plants isn't working...Europe's engine is on the ropes.
Oh well, this is an IMF so-called forecast.
👉🏽'The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US rises to 7.43%, a new 2024 high.
We have not seen mortgage rates this high since early December 2023, when the Fed said rate cut talks were "premature."
This means that the monthly mortgage payment on a $500,000 house with 20% down is now $3,500/month.
The $3,500/month figure also does not include property taxes, insurance, or maintenance.
Meanwhile, the median US home is now selling for a whopping $417,700.'- TKL
I guess it is a great time to be a rental property owner. Yikes!
This thought-provoking thread has a very counterintuitive, contrarian take:
https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard/status/1780679971146731837
TLDR: 'This sums it up pretty well. Sound money helps slow the process, too. The fiat advent coupled with Keynesian asset inflation policies created a perfect storm. The rise of Chinese deflation exporting was the nail in the coffin because it made this reflexive.' -Nelson Alves
On the 17th of April:
👉🏽'The US is expected to collect $2.9 trillion in tax receipts during FY2024 as of Q1.
Government expenditures over that period are expected to be over $9.7 trillion.
The thousands of dollars you remitted to TurboTax today won't cover even 1/3rd of US expenditures.'- Joe Consorti
👉🏽UK Inflation at 3.2% — the lowest in more than 2 years from a peak of 11.1%
On the 18th of April:
👉🏽'Want to be in the top 1% in the United States?
You now need a net worth of a whopping $5.8 MILLION.
This is up 15% from the $5.0 million threshold seen just one year ago.
The top 1% threshold in the US is only lower than Monaco, Luxembourg, and Switzerland.
As equity markets and real estate prices have skyrocketed, the wealth gap is widening.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% in the US has risen by almost $15 trillion to a record $44.6 trillion.
The rich are getting richer faster than ever before.' -TKL
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 20th of April:
👉🏽'The Congressional Budget Office expects that about $20 trillion in net new federal debt will be issued over the next decade.
As part of this, they assume 1) no recessions but also that 2) that interest rates will go down starting here in 2024.
Otherwise, probably >$20 trillion.'
Now go back to the top of this article and read the start quote.
(Picture 5)
'Over the same next decade:
At current production rates and prices, about $2.5 trillion in new refined gold will be created. Prices and supply rates could change.
At current prices, about $70 billion in new bitcoin will be created. Prices could change, but not supply rates.' - Lyn Alden
On top of that:
👉🏽'The U.S. has $4.4 Trillion annual revenue, prints $1 Trillion every 100 days and there is still somehow a need to vote for $100 Billion aid to countries on top of everything else. House approves aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. House Rejects Border Security Bill.
The U.S. doesn’t have a revenue problem, it has a government spending problem.
'A child born in 2024 in the U.S. is born with ~$85,000 debt.
The median U.S. bank account balance is $8,000 and over half of the population has less than $500 in savings.
So, printing $ Trillions and sending $100s of Billions abroad is not without consequences.' - Gabor Gurbacs
Politicians celebrating sending another $60B to fund a foreign war. Perfect more DEBT!
Context:
$34.6 trillion in debt.
123% Debt to GDP
Nearly a $3 trillion deficit this year.
video: https://twitter.com/MDBitcoin/status/1781786149071032712
Separate money and state.
To sum everything up from above:
The US hasn’t generated a surplus consistently since the 1990s.
The trend over the past 50 years has been:
Larger and larger monthly deficits.
Monthly surpluses are getting few and far between.
That’s why the debt can only continue rising exponentially.
Deficit is destiny. That means increasing the rate of debasement of the US$.
21st of April:
'Who is supposed to pay for pensions and healthcare entitlements in Italy in a few years?
BTW, it’s a similar picture in Germany. Demographics is one of the main reasons why the US will be much better off than Europe as we go forward.' -Michael A. Arouet
If I were 50 years old in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands we are starting to see the same effect, I'd start wondering who will pay my state-funded pension.
You need either economic growth, acceptance of high migration, or healthy demographics. Italy has none of the three. What will give?
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1781978599391674470
Please click on the link and have a look at the graph.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn Alden's April newsletter is out. Well, worth your time to read this:
https://www.lynalden.com/april-2024-newsletter/
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
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#bitcoineducation
#adoption
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2024-04-19 21:27:39

Dutch Noderunners Halving Party🧡✅
19blocks👀✅🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/b7b59a6412e6cdcc4522b86c13938af5b46bf192601b88c640b04ea0c3d9b65c.jpg https://image.nostr.build/987dd0ba1f66c4d2278896cae0fd89524f8ec3b4ffa5dd382d979099f3a0c850.jpg

2024-04-15 20:47:44

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
‘When you understand Bitcoin there is no way back. You will look at the system in a whole new way. Your friends and family will think you’re crazy. Choose wisely.’
― Bitcoin for Freedom
"3 rules that are a cheat code for life:
1. Create value for others
2. Spend less than you earn
3. Save in Bitcoin"
― BTC Sessions
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
9th of April:
➡️Japanese firm Metaplanet buys ¥1B ($6.5M) of Bitcoin, mirroring MicroStrategy's strategy. The company's shares jumped 90% following the announcement.
11th of April:
➡️SEC to file lawsuit against defi crypto platform Uniswap - Reuters
This is why Satoshi disappeared and made Bitcoin impervious to government attacks.
12th of April:
➡️IMF demands El Salvador change its Bitcoin law in return for a $1.4 billion loan. (please read the part on the IMF below -> segment Macro/geopolitics.) How I read this statement, the IMF is annoyed at the mere existence of Bitcoin. Basically, they are saying: Sell your 'hard' money and get indebted to us.
➡️"The more energy Bitcoin mining uses, the more emissions it can reduce
35 midsized venting landfills running Bitcoin mining is all it takes for Bitcoin mining to be the
world's first emission-negative industry
Achieved organically, without subsidy, without purchasing offsets." - Daniel Batten
Could it be possible for Bitcoin to save the environment with its Proof-of-Work design and be the main player in the 'green' energy revolution?
13th of April:
➡️Paraguay Senate approves resolution to sell energy surplus to bitcoin miners, criticizes sale of energy to Brazil for 25% of what bitcoin mining generates, directs this energy to 20 new bitcoin mining companies instead. Remember Paraguay is a large hydroelectricity producer and Bitcoin could be the answer.
I am pretty sure that Bitcoin will be the primary engine of prosperity in the 21st century. Countries like El Salvador, and Paraguay but also several countries in Africa will lead the way.
14th of April:
➡️UFC lightweight Renato Moicano: "If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers".
He also demanded his fight bonus in Bitcoin.
He is referring to, it’s a series of six lectures Mises gave in Argentina in 1958, later combined into a book: “Economic Policy: Thoughts for Today and Tomorrow”:
1. Capitalism
2. Socialism
3. Interventionism
4. Inflation
5. Foreign Investment
6. Policies and Ideas
Full read: https://cdn.mises.org/Economic%20Policy%20Thoughts%20for%20Today%20and%20Tomorrow_3.pdf
➡️The number of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin peaked in January 2024 at 1,024,484 and has fallen by 13,000 since.
15th of April:
➡️Norway became the first country in Europe to introduce regulations for data centers aimed at controlling which projects are permitted.
Cites emissions, and energy consumption control. They state Bitcoin mining “is an example of a type of business we do not want in Norway”
They are not going to ban mining. They want to force data centers to report to the government what kind of processes they are doing. Still bad though! Why, because it is misguided, ineffective, and futile. If electric cars = zero-emission... electric miners too. Are they going to ban or regulate EV cars too?
Clown policy that will backfire badly for a country already going through a currency crisis and for a failing continent, Europe.
Read the following thread by Daniel Batten.
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1779859225809990116
Ergo: Politicians have no clue or are being paid to not understand things that benefit society/their people.
➡️Germany's biggest Federal bank LBBW to launch Bitcoin custody services to institutional customers.
Bitcoin ETF news:
"Weekly Bitcoin ETF Flows:
IBIT +7,000 BTC
FBTC + 1,300 BTC
GBTC -11,000 BTC
Net Flows - 1,100 BTC
In a week of GBTC Sales, CPI freak outs and War fears, Bitcoin holds 67K and has slight outflows."- Thomas Fahrer
On the 9th of April:
➡️The value of BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings jumps to $18.9 Billion.
➡️Fidelity now holds 150K Bitcoin worth over $10 Billion.
On the 11th of April:
➡️Asia ETF's
- Hong Kong approving Bitcoin ETFs
- South Korea will approve Bitcoin ETFs
- Chinese fund managers launching Bitcoin ETFs
US Bitcoin ETFs pushed the price from $38K to $73K.
South Korea's pro-Bitcoin Democratic Party has won the national election to form a government. More than 6 million South Koreans — over 10% of the population own Bitcoin or crypto.
DP: "We're going to allow the ETFs, domestic or overseas."
➡️GBTC sees the smallest outflow since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs with just $17.5 million leaving the fund on the 11th of April.
15th of April:
➡️Hong Kong just approved the first batch of Bitcoin ETFs
➡️"Since launching on Jan 10, U.S. ETFs, even including all GBTC sales, have amassed 222,000 Bitcoin in just 65 trading days—that's 3,415 BTC daily!
Now Hong Kong ETFs join the game, just as the weak hands have folded and miners have half as much to sell." - Thomas Fahrer
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽 'BlackRock is eating the world: Hits record $10.5tn in assets under management in Q1 2024, +15% YoY, boosted by $57bn of total net inflows to its investment products.'
👉🏽Here's a crazy stat that no one will believe.
The universal investment benchmark is the 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds.
What if you replaced the bonds entirely with gold....crazy right?
Turns out it makes no real difference.
(picture 2)
Now wait till they do Bitcoin.
👉🏽This time is different:
(picture 3)
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 9th of April:
👉🏽"The EU must find ‘enormous amount’ of money to face global challenges, says former ECB chief Mario Draghi."
Money Printer go brrrr to infinity…because 'Whatever it takes' - Draghi
How?
Print
Confiscate
Tax(visible)
Tax (hidden)
Government “Innovation”.
👉🏽Constant QE or default are the only ways out. And financial repression is the default, just in slow motion.
(See picture 4)
'This assumes no recessions or geopolitical events for the next few decades.
Japanese-style financial repression is the only way out of this mess. Or what other viable options are there?'
👉🏽"The federal budget deficit totaled $1.1 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2024, CBO estimates"
'And yet, just over a month ago, the same CBO released their report projecting a $1.5T deficit for the entire year. At this rate, the deficit will be $2.2T, a 47% overshoot and even higher than the projected deficit in 2031.' - James Lavish
The US spending is out of control and it's getting worse at an exponential rate. Within one month, they (CBO) posted a 47% overshoot on the largest budget in world history.
The whole US budget, but also here in Europe, implodes around 2030 - 2035 at the latest. A new system will rise...the only question you need to ask yourself will it be Bitcoin or CBCD's? (Picture 5)
On the 10th of April:
👉🏽March CPI inflation rate UP to 3.5%
- Above expectations of 3.4%.
- Cor inflation is 3.8%, also higher than expected rate of 3.7%.
3 straight years with inflation over 3%
They said "Inflation is transitory"
'Inflation has not fallen in a single month since Biden's term began (the closest was July 2022 when it was unchanged), which leaves overall prices up over 19% since Bodenomics was unleashed. And prices have never been higher.'- Zerohedge
This means that overall prices are up a whopping 19% in less than 4 years.
We have not had a year-over-year inflation print below 3% in 36 consecutive months.
Furthermore, inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for 37 straight months.
Inflation is now building on previous years of inflation; we effectively have compounding inflation. Everyone should be asking for a 20% raise.
👉🏽For the less informed.
Price inflation at every fast food restaurant in the US has far exceeded CPI inflation since 2014.
Prices at McDonald's have DOUBLED since 2014 while official inflation data shows just 31% inflation.
Prices at Popeyes, Taco Bell, and Chipotle have risen by 86%, 81%, and 75%, respectively.
Traditionally, fast food was considered to be a "cheap" food option.
The CPI is a lie it’s manipulated to be lower than real inflation.
👉🏽On the same day, the US 10-year Treasuries had their worst day since May 2023, with yields surging after the one-two punch of a hot CPI and a bad auction. Peter Boockvar: "10-year auction was bad...Dealers were left with 24% of the auction, which is the most since Nov. 2022."
👉🏽China has been buying more gold than any other nation since 2020, with India in second place.
Can we call this DeDollarization?
(picture 6)
More on China...
👉🏽"Following Moody's in December, Fitch Ratings revised the China debt outlook to negative from stable.
China's pace of debt accumulation is very problematic. Public debt has more than doubled since the Great Financial Crisis and is heading to above 100% of GDP.
More importantly, total debt has ballooned from 133% in 2008 to 272%(!) in 2022. It will have risen again in 2023.
The current 10-year Chinese bond yield is at 2.29%, which is extremely low for a country that expects to grow by 5% annually. Coincidence? Of course not! China has the same debt sustainability issues as every other major economy, and rating agencies must act." - Jeroen Blokland
On the 11th of April:
👉🏽IMF Prepares Financial Revolution – Say Goodbye To The Dollar
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imf-prepares-financial-revolution-say-goodbye-dollar
The only thing I can say on this is:
- I am not surprised
- Please reject CBDCs with everything you have. The centralization of digital currencies will never work!
- The IMF is not elected!
Anyway, no need to panic whatsoever. The IMF probably goes before the dollar. The dollar is and will be the number one (fiat) currency of the world.
On the 12th of April:
👉🏽"Another strange sign that someone knows something:
Gold is up ~20% over the last 5 months and has doubled the S&P 500's return.
Meanwhile, bonds are down nearly 9% as interest rate cuts are priced out.
Historically speaking, gold and bonds have almost always traded together.
There is now a ~30% GAP between the performance of gold and bonds, one of the 5-month divergences largest on record.
Gold is completely ignoring the fact that higher interest rates are here to stay while bonds are getting crushed." - TKL
Central banks /countries are selling their debt portfolios and buying gold. That would be my take. The financialization of everything era is over.
On the 15th of April:
👉🏽'The US credit card delinquency rates are now at their highest on record, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
In Q4 2023, more credit card balances were 30+ and 60+ days past due compared to any other period in history.
The percentage of credit card balances at least 30 days past due is now ~3.5%.
Meanwhile, total credit card debt has skyrocketed in recent months and is now at a record $1.3 trillion.
The average credit card interest rate is also at a record 28%, according to Forbes.' - TKL
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Warmaking has become increasingly unlimited in the fiat age, as financing has moved away from war taxes and war bonds and towards quiet borrowing
This is a very well-documented essay and thread with data and statistic by @npub1trr…hdpu :
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-the-fed-hides-costs-of-war
Book tip: Read The Creature from Jekyll Island.
Extra gift!🎁
Your wealth is melting—the first report by Joe Burnett is 37 pages exploring how humanity's relationship with wealth has changed after the discovery of Bitcoin.
https://8198895.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/8198895/PDFs/Your%20wealth%20is%20melting-1.pdf
@npub1z5d…mqhw
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr
#plebchain
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#zap🧡
#plebchain
#grownostr
#stacksats
#bitcoineducation
#adoption https://image.nostr.build/fe5fb0ceba2af3cb920697d4a88d465334048ad35227fe6f6a95efffafdb555a.jpg https://image.nostr.build/9ca73dbad8bb1e62db47e859de1012ce1a4f2a8d954bf9945aea8584487fa7ef.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ff2892a99426ac5afdced0a2bc31664c3b4894b86a0bf314078b23675aebae74.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b1a2134aa5cb1397482068d67a5ad752fd1e68219ad33717ac8518c79bf6aa54.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ca2f07bd8d39c6f8b6d73b1ab7dbe94b0b1f97d036a4e178e98a4e725c5906ac.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b849d985a251c65674d28b31b9f5f1256c26731fb7632c90b2635ade5a7bc230.jpg

2024-04-14 07:08:49

UFC lightweight Renato Moicano 🎤:
"If you care about your country, read Ludwig Von Mises' 6 lessons of the Austrian Economic School motherf*ckers"
MMA fighters shilling Austrian Econ, classic!👀🔥
Ludwig von Mises - 6 Lessons of Austrian Economics School 🧵
1. Subjective Value Theory: Economic value is subjective and varies from person to person. This theory underlines the idea that individuals assign value to goods and services based on their own preferences and needs.
2. Methodological Individualism: Methodological approach that focuses on individual human action as the fundamental unit of analysis in economics. This perspective highlights the importance of understanding the actions and decisions of individuals in shaping economic outcomes.
3. The Calculation Problem: In a centrally planned economy, without the use of market prices for the means of production, rational economic calculation becomes impossible, leading to inefficiency and resource misallocation.
4. Spontaneous Order: Suggests that complex social phenomena, including economic systems, emerge organically from the interactions of individuals pursuing their own interests. This idea contrasts with central planning and highlights the benefits of decentralized decision-making.
5. Time Preference Theory: It explains how individuals value present consumption over future consumption. This theory helps to understand saving, investment, and interest rates in the economy.
6. The Business Cycle Theory: Business cycles are primarily caused by fluctuations in the money supply, particularly through credit expansion by central banks. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable monetary system to avoid economic instability.
Read Mises, study Bitcoin!🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption

2024-04-08 18:55:41

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"FIAT = politics for growing your own currency and its dominance at the expense of others.
BITCOIN = a movement for growing a currency and its dominance at the expense of no one else, but through synergy and spontaneous emergence.
They are not the same.
They are the opposite."
― Arnold Hubach
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️El Salvador offers 5,000 free passports to highly skilled scientists, engineers, doctors, artists, and philosophers from abroad.
This will grant them full citizen status, including voting rights.
Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador:
'We're offering 5,000 free passports (equivalent to $5 billion in our passport program) to highly skilled scientists, engineers, doctors, artists, and philosophers from abroad.
This represents less than 0.1% of our population, so granting them full citizen status, including voting rights, poses no issue.
Despite the small number, their contributions will have a huge impact on our society and the future of our country.
Plus, we will facilitate their relocation by ensuring 0% taxes and tariffs on moving families and assets. This includes commercial value items like equipment, software, and intellectual property.'
➡️On-chain data from GlassNode reveals that approximately 1.876 million Bitcoin, or 9.5% of the total supply, have been acquired above $60,000.
➡️ 'The satoshi millionaires continue to gain ground, now holding over 17% of the total supply. Stay humble and stack sats.' - Wicked
➡️Bitcoin has been a profitable investment 99.92% of the days since its launch on January 3, 2009.
This means there have only been a tiny handful of days, just six to be exact, where investing in Bitcoin wouldn't have turned a profit.
➡️Bitcoin miner Bitfarms invests $240M to acquire 28,000 Bitmain T21 miners.
➡️Talking about mining.
'In the last four years, emission intensity has fallen by 348g/kWh.
That's 29x faster than the banking sector is greening its emission intensity.
No industry has ever dropped its emission intensity so fast. It happened primarily because Bitcoin sustainable energy mix rose 56%.' -Daniel Batten
➡️Kingdom of Bhutan to increase mining capacity 6x ahead of the Bitcoin halving to 600 megawatts.
➡️On the first of April:
'Exactly 11 years ago, Bitcoin broke a $1 billion market cap for the 1st time.
1000x later, economists are still "mystified".
Mainstream economists are mystified because they can’t deal with reality most of the time.
At $1.3+ Trillion, Bitcoin's market capitalization exceeds the top 4 largest banks in the world, COMBINED. No wonder banksters are afraid.
➡️"Financial planning firm Burkett Financial Services, reported owning 602 shares of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF as of March 31. This kicks off what is expected to be a HUGE month of SEC filings by firms that own
Bitcoin ETFs."- Bitcoin Archive
➡️Coinbase integrating Lightning.
Bitcoin on lightning rails isn't just the future - it's here! Coinbase has over 100 million users. Better late than never Coinbase, it only took them like 7 years. Oh well, it's great news to see more adoption of the Lightning Network.
➡️"The State of Louisiana (with a unanimous 103-0 vote) Passes a Bill To Protect Your 'Fundamental Bitcoin Rights' out of the State House.
Louisiana is taking decisive steps to safeguard the freedom of Bitcoin-related activities within the state.
Upon enactment, this legislation will explicitly ensure protection for:
-The guaranteed right to purchase Bitcoin.
-Your freedom for Bitcoin mining.
-The right to self-custody of your digital assets.
-The freedom to operate a full node." - Dennis Porter
➡️$932 Billion asset manager DWS launches physical Bitcoin ETC in Germany.
DWS partners with Galaxy Digital to offer the "Xtrackers Galaxy Physical Bitcoin ETC" in Germany.
The product is 1:1 "physically backed" utilizing two cryptocurrency custodians, Zodia Custody and Coinbase
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/900-billion-dws-launches-physical-bitcoin-etc-in-germany
Not sure about the 'physically backed' part, but still kinda bullish.
Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Eric Balchunas reports that BlackRock has updated its Bitcoin ETF prospectus, adding Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup. This marks a major shift: big firms are now eager and comfortable with public association with Bitcoin.
➡️Australia's first Bitcoin ETF to go live this year, says asset manager Monochrome
➡️Morgan Stanley and UBS Reportedly Competing to Launch First Bitcoin ETF.
Reports suggest that Morgan Stanley appears poised to edge out UBS in this race, with insider sources indicating that an announcement could be imminent.
➡️Korea to approve Bitcoin ETFs if pro-Bitcoin opposition wins election in 4 days – Bloomberg
"We're going to allow the ETFs, domestic or overseas."
More than 6 million South Koreans — over 10% of the population own Bitcoin or crypto.
➡️ Bitcoin spot ETFs have siphoned over 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin since January 11, according to analysis from IntoTheBlock.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have CPI, the FOMC minutes, and PPI. In Europe, it’s the euro area Sentix, ECB policy meeting, and UK GDP. And in Asia, we have the China and India CPI and RBNZ meeting.
👉🏽 'The US stock market now accounts for a massive ~45% of total global market cap.
Since 2008, the US share has risen by ~15% to its largest since 2004.
The US equity market size is now larger than India, China, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, UK, France, and Japan COMBINED.
US stocks also account for almost 65% and more than 70% of the MSCI ACWI and the MSCI World indexes, respectively.
To put this in perspective, Nvidia, alone exceeds the GDP of all but 11 countries in the world. The top 10% of S&P 500 stocks now account for 75% of the index's market cap.
This is an even higher percentage than the peak of the Dot-com bubble.' - TKL
👉🏽Gold price surged over $2300 an ounce, a new record high.
Since February 14th, gold is up an incredible $300/oz or 15% in less than 2 months.
Even as 3 interest rate cuts have been removed from market forecasts, gold is pushing higher.
Geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation worries have been the primary drivers.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"This week, France reported a 5.5% budget deficit for 2023 and that it won't be able to push the deficit to below 3% of GDP until at least 2027. Italy will post a 7% deficit for 2023, not declining to less than 3% until at least 2026. In the US, the budget deficit for 2023 will be over 6% and remain above 5% until 2027, after which it will start to increase again.
Meanwhile, there is no recession, economic momentum (using the Citi global economic surprise index as a proxy) is improving, and global #nflation remains nearly two percentage points above the pre-COVID average.
And yet, central banks around the globe are ready to cut rates. Imagine what will happen when we do get a recession, inflation drops and governments accumulate even more debt. Or will this time be different?"
As Lyn Alden would say: Fiscal dominance.
Fiscal dominance at the end of a long-term debt cycle. We are accelerating debasement to offset the deflationary effects of technology on debt markets.
And will it be different this time? No, I don't think so. Do you really think they can bring down deficits? Why will they be able to do so in 2026 or 2027? As always they will kick the can down the road.
Explanation of Fiscal Dominance:
The Fed has no choice. If rates (more on that below) are not cut we get a financial crisis. There is too much government debt!
We now live in an era of Fiscal Dominance.
The term "fiscal dominance" refers to a situation in which the government's fiscal policy (Deficits of 6% and Debt to GDP at WWII levels) significantly influences or dominates the monetary policy set by the central bank.
This occurs when a government's debt level is so high that it restricts the central bank's ability to control inflation through monetary policy tools, such as setting interest rates.
If rates don’t come down, and the value of the USD does not come down then there is a very high probability that the US will experience a failed bond auction.
Or....they can cut government spending but we all know that's not going to happen, innit?
Now scroll back up and read that part again on France & Italy's deficit.
Remember what I shared last week?
The last time France didn't have a budget deficit: 1974
👉🏽Last week I already mentioned that the US debt outlook isn't looking good and rather unsustainable.
(please read that part again in last week's Weekly Recap)
On the 1st of April after finishing that Weekly Recap Bloomberg released an article with the title:
A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead"
Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations on the US debt outlook. 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path.
''In the end, it may take a crisis — perhaps a disorderly rout in the Treasuries market triggered by sovereign US credit-rating downgrades, or a panic over the depletion of the Medicare or Social Security trust funds — to force action.''
Remember the Treasury chief (Janet Yellen) herself acknowledged in a Feb. 8 hearing that “in an extreme case” there could be a possibility of borrowing reaching levels that buyers wouldn’t be willing to purchase everything the government sought to sell.
Even with a miracle, they get it done in the treasury market, but they still won't fix the deficit. (again read last week's Weekly Recap - segment Macro/Geopolitics)
'Medicare is $79 trillion underfunded & Social Security $15 trillion underfunded. With another $29 trillion in various other underfunded liabilities, for a total of $123 trillion. Plus $34 trillion of debt.
That's not enough to cause a panic & force action?'
These are just the facts.
https://usadebtclock.com
Please read the full article here: https://archive.ph/lOvx6
👉🏽Talking about the treasury market:
Federal Reserve's Jerome Powell says no interest rate cuts until inflation improves.
The 10-year note yield is now trading at its highest level since November 2023, at 4.39%
Stronger-than-expected inflation data and rising oil prices have added to inflation worries over the last month.
The 10-year note yield is now just 11 basis points away from crossing 4.50%.
Meanwhile, less than 3 interest rate cuts are now expected in 2024.
Higher for longer has quickly returned.'- TKL
In plain English: It is forecasting extended inflation and possibly stagflation.
The Fed knows that lowering interest rates leads to the re-steepening of yield curves, which leads to recession and stock price drawdowns.
So they wind down QT (and possibly restart QE) to kick the can until after the election. (I have discussed this scenario now for a year, and it looks like this will be the playbook.)
Higher for longer, until something breaks. In the meantime, stocks, assets, and Bitcoin will rise.
👉🏽Now that we know that the rates will remain higher what could go wrong?
'Currently, there is roughly $6 TRILLION of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) debt in the US.
Banks hold a whopping $3 trillion, or 50%, of this outstanding debt.
This year, ~$929 billion, or one-sixth of this debt is set to be refinanced, according to Goldman Sachs.
Rates on these loans are set to double or even triple since they were taken.
All while many of these CRE projects are bankrupt or cash flow negative.' (Picture 2)
Ergo: There's simply too much debt all around, and all of it arising from too many years of easy monetary policy. Let's see which regional bank or market player will bite the dust next.
What do I mean by there is simply too much debt all around?
'U.S. debt always goes up. The only time it decreased in the post-war era was for an 18-month stretch around 2009. That's when private debt growth slowed down and public debt growth took over.
It's almost at $100 trillion.' - Lyn Alden
(Picture 3)
👉🏽"Total wealth held by the top 1% of Americans is now at a record $44.6 trillion.
This means that the top 1% of Americans now control 30% of all wealth in the US.
In Q4 2023 alone, the top 1% saw their net worth increase by $2 trillion as the stock market soared.
Since 2020, the wealth of the top 1% has risen by almost $15 trillion.
That's a ~50% increase in just three years all as affordability has hit record lows.
The wealth gap is widening."- TKL (picture 4)
To the extent the stock market and other assets rising in price creates this wealth gap (since a small percentage of Americans, but also here in Europe, own stocks and other assets), Fed intervention meant to support the price of these assets is a large part of that wealth gap. Sound money is essential to defending freedom. If you look at the chart...please compare that with the chart of the US debt chart. I will give you a hint, it is almost as vertical.
Our world is quickly being divided into those who own assets, and those who pay asset owners. In general (our history) that's not a good thing, as inequality continues to rise.
👉🏽Eurozone inflation cools, setting the stage for June rate cut: Headline CPI slowed to 2.4% YoY in March from 2.6% in Feb below the consensus forecast of 2.5%. Core CPI slowed to 2.9% from 3.1%, again below economists' expectations to reach the lowest level in >2yrs. But there were signs that inflationary pressures have yet to ease in labor-intensive parts: Service Price inflation +4.0% YoY, same as the 4 preceding months. (via DJ)
👉🏽The US Dollar is down 11% against gold and down 40% against bitcoin in 2024.
👉🏽All of the headlines focused on how the "US added 303,000 jobs in March."
However, if you dig further into the data, ALL of the job gains came from part-time jobs, according to ZeroHedge.
Last month, the US added a whopping 691,000 part-time jobs while LOSING 6,000 full-time jobs.
The worst part?
Over the last year, the number of full-time jobs is DOWN 1.347 million.
Meanwhile, the number of part-time jobs is up by 1.888 million, according to ZeroHedge.
To make it even worse: 71,000 govt jobs were added. 0 manufacturing jobs added.
Now ask yourself in a well-functioning economy do people hold one or more than one job?
What we see overall is a massive disconnect between data and reality.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
"We constantly hear from politicians and pundits that Bitcoin has no use case. In the next video, Peter McCormack & Alex Gladstein cover *dozens of specific, critical Bitcoin use cases* across global commerce, human rights, and energy.
They discuss:
- Bitcoin for commerce, freedom, & power
- Broken money for billions
- Why Bitcoin is bad for dictators
- How Bitcoin fixes wasted power
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI3Xcei8d_I
“If you take savings, commerce, freedom, and power, that’s the bedrock of civilization; so if you don’t have these things…you’re living in a very poor country.” - Alex Gladstein
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://m.primal.net/Hseu.jpg
https://m.primal.net/Hsez.jpg
https://m.primal.net/HsfA.jpg
https://m.primal.net/HsfB.jpg

2024-04-01 22:01:44

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
Bitcoin is the:
Math class you never had.
History class you never had.
Finance class you never had.
Physics class you never had.
Economics class you never had.
Philosophy class you never had.
― The Bitcoin Therapist
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Last week I showed you guys with data and charts how the US, the world reserve currency, our current system, is leading our society to 'death'.
This is not something new. The Dutch eventually lost their reserve currency status and after that the British (Empire). Why? Too much debt.
Our current system needs to consume to pay off our debt. It's that simple...
If you look at last week's Government Debt chart you will notice that this doesn't include the debt of households & businesses, the nature of the money multiplier & fractional reserve banking means the total outstanding debt in the world is much higher.
Again, high-time preference culture and borrowing from our future will lead to the death of society. As we have seen in the past...
Unless we have something that will rise out of the ashes...
Bitcoin.
➡️Tether has added another 8,888.88888888 Bitcoin to their reserves, bringing their total treasury to 75,354 BTC. This is consistent with Tether's Treasury Reserve Strategy of saving 15% of profits in Bitcoin.
➡️Bitmain has unveiled the Antminer S21 Pro, the newest iteration of its flagship Bitcoin mining ASIC.
Boasting a hash rate of 234 TH/s and an energy efficiency ratio of 15.0 J/TH, the Antminer S21 Pro “has the ability to deal with more challenging environments.”
➡️"The daily DCAers who started stacking Bitcoin at the all-time high in late 2021 now have a lower cost basis than the daily DCAers who started stacking at the bear market low in late 2022.
Proving once again that with Bitcoin, time in the market beats timing the market." - Wicked (picture 2)
Ergo: get off zero. The biggest mistake you can make is being on the sidelines as Bitcoin is the greatest savings technology ever devised.
➡️On the 30th of March someone bought or transferred $1.1 Billion worth of Bitcoin at $70K.
https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/transactions/btc/fe60e8baae112517b6e1708c6e7414386ff3ceaeb10f51091adb806ed8d068a5
1.1 Billion...I wish I had cash like that available. Oh by the way the fee was only 17 dollars. Classic!
➡️Bitcoin closed its 7th straight green month for the first time in history.
➡️Coinbase Bitcoin reserves hit a 9-year low on the 26th of March.
➡️Cryptocurrency exchange Kucoin and two of its founders criminally charged with bank secrecy act violations and unlicensed money transmission offenses.
➡️On the 28th of March it was exactly 27 years ago, Adam Back invented Proof-of-Work, the bedrock of Bitcoin. It's how Satoshi harnessed time and energy to create the best money in human history.
Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Two months in, Bitcoin ETFs have ~$60B AUM
Gold ETFs had $60B AUM after 15 years.
However, you can't really compare both assets with each other as the USD had a completely different value back then. Still an impressive growth for the Bitcoin ETFs. The move from analog to digital is always exponential.
➡️Here's a look at the Top 30 ranked by assets in the first 50 days on the market. Went global for this so this is out of 11,338 funds. Four BTC ETFs made the list.
Out of 11,338 global funds, the two with the largest AUM in history after 50 trading days are both Bitcoin ETFs, and it isn’t particularly close. (Picture 3)
One thing to consider this is not adjusted for inflation.
At this rate, BlackRock could overtake Grayscale's Bitcoin stack by this month's halving.
Blackrock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT holdings have now surpassed 252,011 BTC ($18B)
"I’m pleasantly surprised and I’d never have predicted it before we filed it that we were going to see this type of retail demand," says Blackrock CEO Larry Fink.
➡️WisdomTree gained approval to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs for its $206 million and $117 million funds.
➡️Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: 3% is the new 1%
He reports professional investors' potential Bitcoin allocation has shifted from 1% to 3%+ since 2018, primarily due to ETFs mitigating "going to zero" risk.
For wealth investors, 3%+ is the new norm.
➡️ Rumours that Morgan Stanley will approve Bitcoin ETFs on their platform in the next 2 weeks are getting stronger.
Early this month Morgan Stanley filed with the SEC that 12 of their funds may buy Bitcoin ETFs, and last week they sent Bitcoin compliance & education materials out to all advisors.
Morgan Stanley has $1.5 Trillion in assets under management.
➡️Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs are expected to be approved in Q2
Including the ability to withdraw Bitcoin (No paper bitcoins!). (source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-likely-allow-kind-162521543.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADQ9lwMOgCrUeYU0wXFR-I3VLIKK-KPVw7jOrmT28h7AkgQov2AuXnkaTT2jaFgNCEnYB4HKsdsctI_6_qKwmpCImH9bSY7Urg2Jc31A2ESgCz8C3zt7ijbuasbFwUFkEscFEHe_VrX4FeEzOtzzvr61eM2d_A9C4_TQql_qEu0l)
➡️SBF sentenced to 25 years in jail.
Judge Kaplan: you are sentenced… for a total of 300 months [25 years]."
This is blasphemy as SBF stole billions of customers' money, and lied in court.
Ross Ulbricht created a website and is still serving 2 life sentences in prison.
Injustice at its finest.
A double life sentence + 40 years with no chance of parole.
Ross was sentenced at the age of 29.
On the 28th of March, he turned 40.
His “crime” was building a website where people could trade freely without government permission.
In the process, he introduced the world to Bitcoin.
http://FreeRoss.org
If you want to know more about Ross read this excellent thread by Pete Rizzo:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1774052843562889450.html?utm_campaign=topunroll
Just to make one thing clear. He's definitely a legend. Ross Ulbricht's story is remarkable and complex, highlighting the early days of Bitcoin and the challenges faced by its pioneers. But making a black market is not something good, he got what he deserved. But the sentence is way too harsh.
➡️Since 2022, someone has consistently bought 100 Bitcoin at any price.
They now hold 53,733 Bitcoin worth $4 billion, making them the 13th largest Bitcoin holder.
➡️The latest Bitcoin difficulty adjustment came in on the morning of the 28th of March at -0.98%
There is only one more difficulty adjustment before the halving.
Everything is lining up perfectly for the halving to occur on 4/20.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have ISM, payroll reports, and communication from key Fed officials. In Europe, we have PMI, inflation, and unemployment data. In Asia we start the week with a central bank meeting in India, the Bank of Japan Tankan survey, and PMI and inflation releases across the region.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"If US government debt averages 4% across the weighted duration spectrum, that would be about $1.4 trillion in annual interest expense.
At $50 trillion in debt (which will get us there quickly), it’ll be $2 trillion in annual interest expense." -Lyn Alden
The US Government currently makes about $12.2B while spending $17.7B per day. That's overspending by $5.5B per day, which will add up to a total of $2T of overspending for the year.
Drowning in debt. Totally normal phenomenon and sound finance, right? This is why US interest rates can't rise much more and also why they should. More on this topic the great thread by Bob Elliott
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1772229788737913036
Remember we are not in a pandemic, we’re not in a World War, and the US is in an allegedly healthy economy. When any of those changes, debt will skyrocket.
With US national debt up $10 trillion since the pandemic, and roughly sixfold the 2008 crisis. The Treasury issued $7 trillion of debt in just 3 months. (Picture 4)
That matches the worst of Covid -- no pandemic needed. And it's double the previous record that had stood for 231 years.
Again I don't want to be doom and gloom, but these are just the facts. Issuing more t-bills at an accelerating pace is a precondition to becoming a banana republic. This is the type of thing you see emerging markets do, not the issuer of the world's reserve currency and neutral reserve asset.
Just to make it even worse, the US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 44 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history.
👉🏽"Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries who have reached a 130% Debt-to-GDP ratio have defaulted.
According to the US CBO itself, debt-to-GDP in the US is on track to hit 130% for the first time by 2033.
In 2007, debt-to-GDP in the US was just 60% and it has quickly doubled since then.
Currently, debt-to-GDP is at ~124% which is HIGHER than the peak of World War 2, at 119%.
Since 2020, debt-to-GDP is up a whopping 20% after the government's massive borrowing spree.
Simply put, this is unsustainable." -TKL (picture 5)
As you can see in the picture the red line is based on the 'optimist' forecast by the CBO.
As mentioned at the start of this week's 'Weekly Recap' the world is changing that hasn't happened before in our lifetimes but has many times in history.
Please watch the following video by Ray Dalio in which he explains the 500 years of economic rise and downturns of nations brilliantly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=de7o5anFfpSmqVno&v=xguam0TKMw8&feature=youtu.be👉🏽The Federal Reserve’s expenses exceeded its earnings in 2023 by $114.3 billion — its largest operating loss ever. Source: https://archive.ph/7rcCv
"In plain English: The Fed printed $114B (net) out of thin air & handed it to banks, essentially to bribe them not to lend excess reserves into the economy."- Luke Gromen
👉🏽"Since 2008 the monetary base expanded during times of Fed intervention and shrunk during times of QT.
Markets bottomed in October 2022 as the shrinking of the monetary base ended.
It has expanded since then. Hence the question:
What's this then?" - Sven Henrich (picture 6)
Answer: Fiscal dominance.
👉🏽 SWIFT is planning the launch of a new central bank digital currency platform in 12-24 months. (source: Reuters)
Kinda funny innit? The world banks are on the brink of collapse (DEBT) and switch everyone over to their new CBDC in 2024-2025 and stop printing physical cash. According to the central bank's white papers (BoE, ECB), they are planning to release CBDCs in 2025. It's not like they are hiding it. It's just that nobody is bothering at the moment.
I don't know about you but I stick with my 12-24 words!
CBDC is financial slavery.
👉🏽Now let's put another phrase in the mix. Financial Colonialism...
"Over the next two years, low-income countries need to refinance about $60 billion of external debt each year, about three times the average in the decade through 2020. More in this blog:"
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/24/how-to-ease-rising-external-debt-service-pressures-in-low-income-countries
Low-income countries never seem to be able to pay back their debts. This might be the reason why they got to be low-income in the first place, innit?
Anyway, low-income countries need to mine Bitcoin (Africa, South America, etc) and escape the debt slavery by the central bankers / IMF / World Bank.
👉🏽"Core PCE inflation, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve looks at most, declined to 2.78% in February. This marks the slowest pace of core inflation in nearly two years. Given that the Fed needs little to start cutting rates from levels that should be highly restrictive, assuming a neutral rate of 2.50%, markets price a 70% chance of the first rate cut in June. Hence, equities up, gold up, yields down." - Jeroen Blokland
👉🏽Commodity prices across the board seem to be permanently elevated.
Cocoa prices have skyrocketed to nearly $10,000, a fresh all-time high.
In 2024 alone, Cocoa prices are up 130% and outperforming most assets.
To put this in perspective, Nvidia, one of the hottest stocks in the world, is up ~30% LESS than Cocoa in 2024.
Cocoa prices are at record highs due to the:
* Weather damage in West Africa
* Supply constraints
* Increased demand
* Poor farmer returns
* EU rules impacting supply
First, it was Orange Juice and Olive Oil, now it's Cocoa prices exploding.
Commodity prices are outperforming many hedge funds.
The days of low oil prices are gone and consumers are feeling the pain.
The purchasing power of the US Dollar is down over 20% in just 4 years.
👉🏽France's public sector deficit for 2023 climbed to 5.5% of GDP, or €154bn, statistics agency INSEE said, undermining President Macron’s credibility as an econ reformer capable of resolving the country’s fiscal challenges. The earlier official govt deficit est was 4.9% of GDP.
The last time France didn't have a budget deficit: 1974
👉🏽Palestinian banks could be cut off from the Israeli banking system starting next week following.
The decision made by Israel's finance minister to isolate Palestinian Authority banks would paralyze the Palestinian economy. Anyway, Bitcoin fixed this! (source: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-may-cut-off-palestinian-banks-global-banking-system-next-week?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Social_Traffic&utm_content=ap_6ej2zdsxqj
👉🏽65 million AT&T customers have had their personal data leaked on the dark web. Yikes! That's a lot of social security numbers on the dark web.
👉🏽"Warren Buffett, the billionaire head of Berkshire Hathaway, will probably go down as the greatest investor in history... Berkshire shares have seen an average annual return of 20.0%..."
Meanwhile: https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1774577333820629449
Just some members of Congress outperforming the greatest investor in history. we are surely fortunate to be represented by such extraordinary talents." - Edward Snowden (picture 7)
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn is one of my favorite macroeconomists. The interview below is her most recent interview about U.S. fiscal dominance, China, energy, tech, and Broken Money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVFkv7fezxE
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/d8ac0f0c9873133171bcf92a57968834a5c93fd976b0997d0cfaf782922d0683.jpg https://image.nostr.build/0c7cfe47f22fcbb376f6bbeb2d9991aaad8f8d348150489e013bb875a18259cc.jpg https://image.nostr.build/16886d81d38a3b02e63219e75467d1e50378574f2f7498b785bd319d0ad74bf3.jpg https://image.nostr.build/3f8320485c99079666c891cf2e72e99c392079fb1c9e198c512dae3996604ccf.jpg https://image.nostr.build/71468c2d86409a93c1e65c4abe66655632b23a5b31e02f17eab72b6d1d7ac9f7.jpg https://image.nostr.build/9b575616ff05c23da9a27f5249bb4dcb8e2a4b03b87f838560c8ef140bcdaa48.jpg https://image.nostr.build/a1fee15fe7b9878554d9981d816193cafd51233b9f854d76d32e7d7b1f1c5292.jpg

2024-03-25 22:10:02

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Thanks to human ingenuity and progress, life was meant to become increasingly affordable over time.
Government fiat currency is literally designed to obscure this phenomenon and consistently leech productivity and purchasing power gains from its citizens via inflation (monetary debasement).
As it turns out, Bitcoin fixes this.
And Bitcoin will help usher in the next age of human flourishing.”
― Dr. Jeff Ross
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Let me start this weekly recap with some encouragement for the new group of hodlers.
A normal Bitcoin bullrun pullback is 30%. Back in December, we were already on the longest winning streak in Bitcoin's history. There is no bull market without dips.
"If you're new to Bitcoin and jealous of HODLers who bought earlier, don't be.
They went through hell, and now it's your turn.
Last week's dip is nothing. Get used to it.
Learn to manage your emotions.
And if you are stressing out day and night, sell until it no longer stresses you out.
Buy Bitcoin with money you won't need for +4 years.
Bitcoin is a long-term hold, not a short-term trade."
➡️Last weekend we received the news that anonymous 'crypto' wallets are now illegal in the EU. WRONG!
I have shared my view on Instagram, so let me repeat it here.
In short:
Unhosted to unhosted is still legal.
Unhosted to hosted will require KYC.
The draft bill/legislation isn't 'live' yet. There will be a final vote on the matter on the 22nd of April. It will go into force three years (!) after publication in the EU’s journal. No earlier than 2027/2028. It’s ugly legislation, as is the direction the EU is heading in, but the current draft bill isn’t as dramatic as some media state it is.
I will quote Freddie New on this matter:
"This needs to be taken seriously but, as always, it's crucial to read the text of the actual legislation. TLDR Self-custody is not illegal:
1. This is a prohibition of anonymity, not of Bitcoin. If you can prove eg through signing a message, that you control the keys to an address, it is not anonymous and is then linked to you. I understand that
Trezor and Swiss Bitcoin Pay are already working on UX to enable this.
2. The most apparent effect will be increased customer due diligence before you transfer in and out of self-custody.
3. Your coins in self custody, and self-custody itself, are unaffected. The wording clearly states, in bold, "The prohibition does not apply to providers of hardware and software or providers of self-hosted wallets insofar as they do not possess access to or control over those crypto asset wallets."
Don't panic - read the actual source:
https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-6220-2024-REV-1/en/pdf
For the Dutch readers, please read Peter Slagter's thread for more info:
https://twitter.com/pesla/status/1771509534487380158
For all readers, please read the excellent thread by Patrick Hansen:
https://twitter.com/paddi_hansen/status/1771929859704389954
But let me make one thing very clear. What makes the EU regulators think they have any right to know anything about any transaction you have made?
"It prohibition of privacy, one of Bitcoins core values. So on a deeper level, IT IS being made illegal. Just because they cannot make it practically illegal, they make its ideological fundaments illegal."
So no, it isn't as alarming as most people on Twitter and Instagram put online. Point blank misinformation, but from a privacy point of view, I do think it's alarming. A private key is a secret. Only the most tyrannical governments demand you reveal all your secrets to them.
But I also view this as really the EU just codifying for Bitcoin. It's a recognition that it is real, here to stay and not a tulip. Bitcoin is private property. Decentralized digital property is a new concept. In the long term, as always, governments will be the ones who need to adapt. The change may be radical.
➡️"Average Bitcoin transaction fees have not increased in Bitcoin terms over the past decade, despite system utilization increasing"- Pierre Rochard
(Picture 2)
➡️MicroStrategy acquire an additional 9,245 BTC for $623 million.
They now HODL 214,246 Bitcoin at an average price of $35,160 per bitcoin.
On top of that MicroStrategy also raised $600m for 7 years with a tiny 0.875% interest rate.
$100m more than the initial announcement.
➡️On the day we received the news that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years (see for more info on that topic segment Macro & Geopolitics), we also received the news that the world's biggest pension fund, Japan's $1.4 Trillion Government Pension Investment fund, is looking into buying Bitcoin. They are exploring (asking for more information) about Bitcoin as a 'diversification tool. ".
Now ask yourself:
"What happens when EVERY pension fund in the world wants Bitcoin?
Every government?
Every central bank?
Keep in mind Bitcoin is hovering around 2021's all-time high...
Even adjusted for inflation we should be around $80,000.
If you haven't bought yet and you're waiting for a dip, you're gambling.
I hope it happens because I'll buy more.
But if it doesn't?
You'll lose 50-75% of your purchasing power."
Bitcoin is the only way pensions will be able to fill their funding gaps in the coming decade.
➡️$840B global bank Standard Charted says "The gold analogy remains a good starting point for estimating the ‘correct’ Bitcoin price level".
Gold market cap = $14 Trillion
Bitcoin market cap = $1.4 Trillion
Bitcoin at $680,000 would equal Gold's market cap.
Now this is just an analogy, not a guaranteed forecast.
➡️Are you ready for the Bitcoin halving or do you need to stack more Bitcoin? Approximately on the 20th of April, the halving will take place.
➡️ "Despite Bitcoin being up 128% over the last 12 months and down 13% in the last ~8 days, 67.6% of coins have not moved in over a year." https://unchained.com/hodlwaves?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3-20-2024
"The percentage of coins not moving remains elevated compared to previous cycles.
IMO, this is a sign Bitcoin remains in the early stages of a bull market.
The fact that this volatility hasn't shaken many coins, is very promising. Supply is tight.
If history repeats, coins will only move at vastly higher prices."- Joe Burnett
➡️Bitcoin ETF news from last week:
On the 18th/19th of March: Biggest outflow from Grayscale yet.
On a day when GBTC saw record liquidations (to meet bankruptcy obligations of Genesis and others) and when Bitcoin tumbled, Blackrock's IBIT saw a surge of inflows. ETF demand is relentless and price indiscriminate."
GBTC has not had ONE DAY of net inflows since it converted to a spot ETF.
On the 18th of March, they recorded $643 million in outflows—the single biggest individual ETF outflow in nearly 15 years.
The second biggest?
Also GBTC, on January 22nd when it had a $641mm outflow.
They have shed ~37% of their Bitcoin since launch, with about ~385,000 BTC left to dump.
On the 23rd of March: "Nearly $1 billion of net outflows this week for the spot Bitcoin ETF."
➡️BlackRock Head of Digital says "For our clients, Bitcoin is overwhelmingly the number one focus".
➡️Argentina's high inflation (276%) is driving citizens to Bitcoin as a hedge, with exchanges reporting the highest weekly Bitcoin purchase volume in 20 months (picture 3)
➡️Bitcoin supply on exchanges hit 4-year lows, dropping almost 40%, with no slowing signals ahead of the upcoming halving, according to CryptoQuant
➡️Many Bitcoin miners are moving rigs out of the US to Africa and South America ahead of the halving, per Bloomberg.
600K S19 machines are on the move due to cheaper energy. These rigs, once costing $11,500 each, may be worth only $350 after the halving.
➡️Bitcoin is a worldwide problem," says Iceland Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir.
"With its abundant, CO2-neutral, and virtually free geothermal energy source, Iceland could build the largest and most prosperous empire humankind has ever seen - just by mining Bitcoin.
But no, I know shit about Bitcoin, BuT iTs BaD FoR tHe EnViRoNmEnT because WEF said so."
She is left-green (the worst possible combination).
Source FT interview: https://archive.ph/f2phT
➡️SEC is investigating the Ethereum Foundation and wants to define Ethereum as a security.
Yeah, nobody saw that coming...right?
"Whether ETH is legally classified as a security or not, it's a worthless distraction compared to Bitcoin. And remember, when you buy an altcoin, you become the exit liquidity for preminers and centralized controllers of the altcoin.
When you buy Bitcoin, you become financially self-sovereign."
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the PCE deflator, consumer confidence, and durable goods orders. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, money supply, and French, Italian, and Spanish flash inflation. In Asia, we have the Japan and Australian CPI.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Let's start with some charts and some explanations.
132,000 households versus 66,000,000 households.
35 years worth of data.
2 parties (red or blue), 1 central bank (the Fed), 1 result: Ever wider disparity.
(Picture 5)
Nothing stops this train and nothing will change if we don't get to the underlying issue:
developing monetary policy.
Just look at what happens when you add M2.
(Picture 4)
What does M2 stand for:
The M2 money supply is a broader measure of the money stock within an economy, which includes all components of the M1 money supply along with additional types of financial assets. M1 money supply represents the most liquid forms of money, such as physical currency (coins and banknotes) and demand deposits (checking accounts). M2 money supply, on the other hand, encompasses M1 money supply and adds near money or less liquid financial assets, such as savings deposits, time deposits (under $100,000), and money market mutual funds.
M2 is mostly used as a classification for money supply in the eurozone and America;
Central banks and monetary authorities closely monitor M2 money supply as part of their monetary policy framework. By adjusting interest rates, open market operations, and reserve requirements, central banks can influence the growth rate of M2 money supply to achieve their objectives, such as price stability and sustainable economic growth
To sum it up we call this the Cantillon effect.
"The logic of the Cantillon effect is incontrovertible. Of course, money printing will create winners and losers. If it didn’t, the government and run-of-the-mill counterfeiters wouldn’t have an incentive to run their printing presses.
The data confirms Cantillon’s insight from the 1730s. Measures of money printing and bank credit expansion are highly correlated with a variety of measures of economic inequality. While any healthy economy would have some inequality, it’s certain that putting the government in charge of the money supply has exacerbated it."
Source/more info:
https://mises.org/mises-wire/four-charts-show-cantillon-effects
Whilst at it, read the following article: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/insanity-our-world-driven-money-printing
👉🏽On the 19th of March Fed Chair J. Powell: "Appropriate to slow pace of asset runoff soon."
Translated: The Reverse Repo is getting to a level that will cause The Fed to compete with the Treasury for liquidity, so we will soon end QT.
OR
US inflation is almost at an acceptable level.
The Fed needs to taper QT once the RRF is drained and as that reserve level approaches $2.5T, the key level he has indicated before. Once below that, they worry about another repo spike a la 2019. QT must stop to allow the Treasury room to keep floating more debt.
What does this all mean for Bitcoin (assets in general), a massive tailwind as this all is a liquidity game.
What does 'runoff' mean? QT
What does 'reverse repo' mean? It is basically banks' money coming back out of lockup at the Fed and into banks' hands. Kind of like QE.
Remember 'history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.'
"Bernanke (2008): QE is temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet will soon be lower than when we started.
Powell (2024): It’s appropriate to slow the pace of QT fairly soon"
(Picture 6)
$20 trillion fed balance sheet incoming.
Global government debt is a record $82 trillion:
up $20 trillion since Covid
up $50 trillion since Lehman
... and up 7x this century in under 25 years!
The US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 123.7%, near the all-time record of 126.2% reached in 2020
It is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office that in 2034 it will reach 130.6%.
Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries with a ratio above 130% have defaulted
(Picture 7)
Anyway, if you want to know more about the Fed meeting from last week I highly recommend James Lavish's thread:
https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1770495805067264230
👉🏽"POWELL: DON'T SEE CRACKS IN THE LABOR MARKET
what cracks? All new jobs since 2018 have gone to immigrants, and 250,000 illegals enter the country every month." -Zerohedge
Since November, the US has lost 1.8 million full-time jobs.
In the last 12 months, the US labor market has seen a 921,000 increase in part-time jobs while the full-time jobs count declined by 284,000
Headlines: The US has been adding jobs for 38 straight months.
Yikes!
👉🏽 On the 19th of March Japan raised their interest rates for 1st time in 17 years (2007) amid higher inflation & rising wages. BoJ also scrapped its complex yield curve control program while pledging to continue buying long-term govt bonds as needed. It also ended its purchases of ETFs. Nikkei gained 0.7%, 10y Japanese yields dropped 3bps to 0.73%.
By raising rates BoJ is putting pressure on other central banks. Likely we will see rate cuts & restart of QE in the near future by the Fed, and probably also the ECB.
Remember Japan holds over $1.1 Trillion in just US debt alone. The BoJ will become net sellers of this debt very soon. At a time when the US needs more net buyers of its debt.
Great thread by MacroAlf on the implications for global markets:
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1769991687504384463
👉🏽Last week I already mentioned:
"KPMG study among the 350 CFOs of the largest German subsidiaries of international groups shows that there is record-high skepticism with respect to Germany as an investment destination..."
Not only on the Bitcoin - unhosted wallet part the EU seems to be allergic to new and better tech.
The boss of Dow Inc. said the price of electricity in Europe is so high that there are doubts about the long-term future of some of the chemical company’s industrial customers in the region.
Source: https://archive.ph/V6r0r
The decision to close German nuclear power plants will go into history books as the biggest economic, geopolitical, and environmental mistake since WWII.
"In this context: Salzgitter AG estimates that reducing CO2 emissions in the European steel industry to 95% requires 400TWh of additional power annually. This is >2/3 of what Germany currently produces in total.
Source: The long road to green steel | Economy | DW | 07/26/2019" - Swen Roschlau
(Picture 8)
👉🏽China has started blocking the use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers.
US sanctions stopped sales of advanced chips to China, so they quickly developed their own technology.
👉🏽Every generation has its own bubble. Human nature does not change, only the bubbles change. (Picture 9)
"Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes." ~ Jesse Livermore
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
https://youtu.be/48r0VO9m1yc?si=tN0woyKHj8BLr5Pb
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/d5475d5e872c9adbb31cc567822de572cd5e02d3044e0b4d07144eb737b7c1bd.jpg https://image.nostr.build/c34294c8e3bc5516f42a209aa9934745c596c1b7887e8bc3009e4e89097d75a7.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ae3fb6027edc672422fff2f6d3335398e9937a98ab491f884674f34047275a18.jpg https://image.nostr.build/a56d695a64a06093413bc0675771772e590fabbeff64173d0a259756fe3290f9.jpg https://image.nostr.build/f4f7d0871877f4ef566bdf51e95f89474a641505b7902c8218c701fdfa73666a.jpg https://image.nostr.build/e008d9990e789a1631354b7206c06b5676d1d4216d8df24d4764c2bc91b10901.jpg https://image.nostr.build/18db31932248e41c8e806bb62e03127082f6030382d1dd4402065c12147f8ebc.jpg https://image.nostr.build/aba646b9ee71569140f9ac978585961c704c6fef47f24f8956887c92a1f843ee.jpg https://image.nostr.build/8b807c3a8f32d1f55bc299dddb549b3f53789f396704f6f8f991ea31a0450203.jpg

2024-03-22 10:06:12

- reply

I am not sure how you want to incorporate Lightning in that metric?

2024-03-20 13:36:33

- reply

Good morning / good afternoon 🧡💜

2024-03-20 11:19:56

Great way to start
the day.🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/78ff416029ca11edde4e2ec0486ac861e351db4320b76d13bf99f358ebd8c6ba.jpg

2024-03-18 21:22:19

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”
― Alexander Fraser Tytler
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️On the 16th of March, we received the news that $88m leveraged Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours.
Losing money in a bull market…REKT.
➡️"The first Bisq 2 beta release is now available. Interested?
Watch http://bisq.network/bisq-2 and:
1. run Bisq 2;
2. trade with Bisq Easy (or lurk while others do);
3. give feedback in the new p2p group chat." - Bisq
I always recommend Bisq as one of the primary peer-to-peer market on-ramps to Bitcoin (for the more advanced users). So I am very excited to see the roadmap and look forward to the development and use of version 2. (picture 4)
➡️"If Bitcoin was a country, it would rank somewhere between 10-20 in population size.
Something tells me we're going to enter the top 10 very soon." - Sam Wouters (picture 2)
Source: https://river.com/learn/how-many-people-use-bitcoin/
➡️The US government is still holding seized Bitcoin equivalent to ~1% of the total supply with a 2.4X unrealized profit. They haven’t sold any since July 2023 when Bitcoin was $30K.
➡️The Bitcoin network is projected to settle $17.5 trillion worth of BTC this year.
➡️Bitcoin Network Difficulty sets a new ALL-TIME HIGH of 83.95 T
This is nearly double the reading from one year ago (43.55 T) The global competition to mine
Bitcoin continues to heat up.
➡️New Record Bitcoin Hashrate 600,000,000,000,000,000,000x per second
➡️Wealth advisor platform Cetera just approved Bitcoin ETFs to be offered to clients.
It has $475 billion in assets under administration and $190 billion in assets under management.
➡️ $7.2 trillion Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley says they're not going to offer spot Bitcoin ETFs "unless the asset class changes."
"Bitcoin is just too volatile and it's not a store of value."
➡️“Mr. 100” bought 810 of the 900 newly mined Bitcoin on the 14th of March, so the ETFs had to find other willing sellers.
➡️On the 13th of March, we had the first $1B inflow day into the Bitcoin Bitcoin ETFs. Madness! And BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF total inflows overtook Grayscale's total outflows for the first time! You are simply not bullish enough.
Really... you are not bullish enough: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-has-6-months-until-etf-liquidity-crisis
➡️Last week I mentioned that VanECK announced they cut their management fee to ZERO until March 2025. Their Bitcoin ETF doing HUGE trading volume a day after.
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1767596983026364663
➡️"Blackrock Bitcoin Inflows
34.6K Last Week
31.4K The Week Before
34.3K The Week Before That
Any wild guesses about how much they buy this week?"
➡️ El Salvador will be able to pay off the IMF if Bitcoin hits $100K, and never have to talk to them again.
They’ll probably be the most attractive country in the world to go live in just because they embraced
Bitcoin,” says billionaire Tim Draper.
More news on El Salvador: El Salvador voted to drop their income tax from 30% to 0% for money transfers and international investments.
Oh, by the way, El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele :
“Your TAX money is NOT funding your government.
Your government is funded by printing money out of thin air.
So, if your central bank is printing money to fund the government, then WHY do we need to pay taxes?"
Now to make things extra special...
On the 15th of March, Nayib Bukele announced that they decided to transfer a big chunk of our Bitcoin to a cold wallet and store that cold wallet in a physical vault within our national territory.
You can call it our first Bitcoin piggy bank. It's not much, but it's honest work.
https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1768425845163503738
Pretty incredible to see a President tweeting about Bitcoin nation-state self-custody. And what do plebs do? El Salvador released its Bitcoin cold wallet address & you psychopaths are sending donations. Classic.
Just a thought...If El Salvador can be transparent with their reserves why can’t the United States government or the ECB/Central Banks?
Why can’t we see the gold?
➡️El Salvador President Nayib Bukele says the country will purchase one Bitcoin every day until it becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies.
➡️ On the 12th of March @npub1sqz…vk7v rolled out their lightning functionality within the app.
100,000 Relai users now have access to ultra-fast and cheap Bitcoin transactions.
Why Lightning? "The Lightning Network has quickly emerged as the go-to scaling solution for the Bitcoin network. Not only is it great to use Bitcoin in everyday situations, such as paying for a cup of coffee or goods in a shop, but it’s also incredibly fast and much cheaper compared to on-chain transactions."
Relai: "We do this by working closely with two amazing Bitcoin companies! One is our node and implementation provider, Blockstream. We use their Core Lightning implementation, which allows us to be flexible with other Lightning setups as well as using their node. Our second partner is Breez, with their SDK. This provides us access to a wide range of Lightning Service Providers (LSPs) and partners in the network."
Just update your app. To use Lightning, you need to update to the latest version 2.8.1.
Not using Relai at the moment? Download the app https://relai.app/, use the code CRYPTOFRIDAY, and get a 0.5% fee reduction on your weekly/monthly Bitcoin purchases.
➡️Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is going to "eat" gold and has all the great attributes of gold.
All the reasons why Bitcoin will demonetize Gold:
"-Gold was the money of the analog world, and Bitcoin is the money of the Digital World, it is superior in every way for a digital age.
-Precious metal markets have been highly manipulated for a long time.
-Elastic Supply unlike Bitcoin's inelastic supply
-Alleged rehypothecation of precious metal paper contracts (The paper price of Gold) artificially increasing supply.
-Price action has been slow and tedious, with low gains for the last 10 years.
-Much Harder to store and secure
-Much Harder to Transport
-Can be counterfeited in some circumstances
-Unprogrammable
-Centralised"
➡️Bitcoin’s allocation in investor portfolios is 3.7 times greater than that of gold, according to JP Morgan analysts.
➡️On the 11th of March, "Bitcoin just bumped silver to become the 8th most valuable asset in the world.
All else held equal...
at $105K, it jumps Saudi Aramco,
at $137K, it enters the top 3,
and at $153K, Bitcoin becomes the second most valuable asset in the world." - James Lavish
➡️The new Biden budget proposal plans to bring in more than $2.3 billion in the next five years by taxing bitcoin miners.
Biden expects the Bitcoin mining industry to 10x in the United States over the next decade, this would imply a $6 million price target for Bitcoin. Even more bullish than the wash trading line item.
American dynamism and energy abundance will make this possible!
The 30% tax is just absurd. This must be stopped at all costs.
First read the following tweet: https://twitter.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1767371855512432900
Talking about Biden, check out their budget for fiscal year 2025 below, segment macro.
➡️In ~32 days, Bitcoin becomes the hardest asset known to man, with its supply growth rate dropping to half that of gold. This will be Bitcoin's biggest and most important Halving ever. Are you ready?
➡️Merryn Webb, a Senior Columnist at Bloomberg, REFUSES to interview Adam Back, one of the few people ACTUALLY cited in the Bitcoin whitepaper, simply because he has LASER EYES in his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture.
Mainstream media at his finest! (picture 5)
➡️Just a reminder that the FTX bankruptcy estate has 58 million Solana tokens to sell, which is over 13% of the total Solana supply, or about 8.5 billion dollars in today's prices.
➡️The owner of the largest exhibition venue in the Middle East, Abu Dhabi’s ADNEC Group, is to launch the region's first Bitcoin MENA Conference set to take place December 9-10 2024.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the Federal Reserve meeting and press conference with Fed Chair Powell. In the UK, we have the Bank of England meeting and CPI data, and in Europe, the latest ZEW surveys and several ECB speakers. In Asia we start the week with a key policy meeting at the Bank of Japan, more central bank meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Australia, and monthly activity data for China.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽Powell: ‘There will be bank failures’ caused by commercial real estate losses
But not the really big banks, he promises, those will be fine.'
https://thehill.com/business/4516758-powell-there-will-be-bank-failures-caused-by-commercial-real-estate-losses/
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"BIDEN UNVEILS $7.3 TRILLION BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2025, THE BIDEN BUDGET SEES US DEBT HITTING $45 TRILLION IN A DECADE" was the headline.
Just absurd, that the Biden administration thinks that the US DEBT will hit $45 trillion in a decade.
None of their models now or in the past, and recent years came through. We're at nearly $35 trillion now with a new trillion added every 100 days.
You know what is even more absurd and I quote Brian Sullivan: "DC strategist email note this morning lays it out well.
The budget deficit will grow another $16 TRILLION over the next 10 years. That *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.
Without them, the deficit will grow by $19 trillion.
That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.
No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math."
Balaji: "Linear extrapolation gives $50 trillion.
Exponential is more like $70 trillion.
And Bitcoin remains at 21 million."
(picture 3)
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
Oh, just to make things worse, it took 63% of all personal income taxes in Feb to pay the interest on the debt - no roads, no military, no schools, no social security - JUST INTEREST.
👉🏽On the 12th of March US CPI came in.
The 'hot' CPI prints show that headline inflation is sticky around the 3% level.
"On a 3-month annualized basis, Supercore inflation jumped a whopping 6.9% in February.
Core services less shelter inflation is a key metric that the Fed follows, also known as Supercore inflation.
In January, this metric jumped by 0.7% month-over-month, the biggest jump since September 2022.
In February, it was up another 0.5% month-over-month after multiple increases in 2023.
All while real wage growth is turning negative again.
In general February CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.2%, above expectations of 3.1%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 3.8%, ABOVE expectations of 3.7%.
This is the 35th consecutive month with inflation above 3% and the second straight increase.
The fight against inflation is far from over." -TKL
👉🏽"Prediction markets are officially expecting LESS than 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.
After CPI inflation increased for the 2nd straight month, prediction markets saw 65 bps of rate cuts in 2024, according to Kahlsi.
This is equivalent to ~2.6 rate cuts and down SHARPLY from 6 rate cuts seen just 2 months ago.
It's also the first time this year that markets see LESS rate cuts than Fed guidance.
Core inflation is still at 3.8%, nearly DOUBLE the Fed's long-term target.
Could we see ZERO rate cuts in 2024?" -TKL
Still up only, especially in a year when we have a presidential election in the US.
Do you want to know more about the rates bit, please read the following tweet by Luke Gromen:
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1767556897626898876
👉🏽"For the first time in history, interest payments on non-mortgage debt in the US are equivalent to interest on mortgage debt, at $575 billion.
Exactly 3 years ago, interest on non-mortgage debt was at $250 billion.
This marks a 130% increase in household interest expense on non-mortgage items over just 3 years.
Furthermore, 3 years ago interest on non-mortgage debt was HALF of interest on mortgage debt.
Americans are "fighting" inflation with high interest-rate debt.
36% of US adults have more credit card debt than money in a savings account.
Also, the average American household owes $7,951 in credit card debt.
As rates rise, the pain of this debt is getting even worse.
How is this sustainable?" - TKL
👉🏽"ECB plans to roll out digital Euro CBDC starting in 2025. They claim it’ll be “private,” but it will not be, given Lagarde already wants to throw you in jail for a 1000+ euro anonymous cash payment.
Study Bitcoin & opt out of this totalitarian surveillance token." -WalkerAmerica
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp240313~f632c531ac.en.pdf?c399660b02271b5ec70ef86e839a8c64
👉🏽"KPMG study among the 350 CFOs of the largest German subsidiaries of international groups shows that there is record-high skepticism with respect to Germany as an investment destination
Foreign investors are pessimistic and the attractiveness of the country is at risk: 46% of respondents believe that other countries and regions are growing faster than Germany and intend to prioritize investments there in the next five years
Energy transition, digitalization, upgrades, and infrastructure have opened up great business opportunities for international companies, but
all location factors are deteriorating with increasing momentum." - Nikolay Kolarov
In the past year, I have spoken on the deindustrialization of Germany multiple times. Everyone is aware of German deindustrialization by now, unfortunately, industrial production in other major European countries is not looking much better.
(picture 6)
(picture 7)
👉🏽Goldman points out that the Turkish central bank is about to lose control as "FX position deteriorates sharply". Is the Turkish lira on the verge of terminal collapse?
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great What Bitcoin Did podcast.
The Perfect Bitcoin Allocation with Raphael Zagury
- Bitcoin vs real estate
- How ETFs changed everything
- Valuing Bitcoin
- The best portfolio allocation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqsGIRhFkvM
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/XAD4T2CRuqXq49dmviDqVp.webp
https://void.cat/d/KZRyaJazCJxsTqNFrDqpn1.webp
https://void.cat/d/Px2jCp4Rp4r6TWQTsCGAMk.webp
https://void.cat/d/VHJztRWE5DWPtzRj6Xw2Fs.webp
https://void.cat/d/4rjQxNa2eCCpJ4yXNpVPgf.webp

2024-03-11 19:47:06

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"The internet reorganized the world and started the transition from the Analog Age to the Digital Age.
Bitcoin is the logical next step and has already begun repricing the world.
This potent combination will have (is already having) significant implications for individuals, families, businesses, and even nation-states.
Long-standing power structures are shifting before our very eyes... And this is just the beginning.
The seeds for the coming Age of Legends have already sprouted.
Cling to the old ways and methods and social hierarchies and currencies if you want to, but it's much more interesting to help build a better tomorrow for humanity.
Bitcoin is Better Money for a Better World." - Dr. Jeff Ross
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️El Salvador is up $74 million (+60%) and now $200M on their Bitcoin holdings.
Their GDP is ~$30B and growing at 2% a 10x in Bitcoin would add 7% nearly quadruple GDP growth
Emerging economies are going to see this and say wtf are we doing? Hello, game theory!
➡️Arkham claims to have identified Tesla and SpaceX's on-chain Bitcoin holdings.
"We believe Tesla currently has 11.51K (BTC $780M) across 68 addresses and SpaceX has 8.29K BTC ($560M) across 28 addresses, consistent with the financial statements of Tesla and SpaceX.”
➡️Bitcoin privacy summarized:
1. Without KYC data your Bitcoin is pseudonymous.
2. Coinjoin, like Whirlpool, enables you to obscure your activity.
3. Running a node (over Tor) gives you protection at the network level, and eliminates trusted 3rd parties.
➡️The latest Brave Wallet desktop update (v1.63) introduces all main Bitcoin address formats, including Legacy, Nested SegWit, Native SegWit, and Taproot.
Great step by Brave and I would recommend each and everyone to use Brave as your standard browser. The logical next step would be to incorporate Lightning into their wallet.
➡️37 days to the Bitcoin halving when BTC inflation drops to less than half that of gold which makes it the hardest money in the history of humanity.
On top of that Bitcoin:
"ETFs are buying 10k Bitcoin per day and only 900 are mined. They get the rest from weak hands, pRoFiT takers, and people who broke even from the last bull run. These people will soon be empty. Then the ETFs will bid for the BTC held by laser-eyed 80 IQ psychopaths. Good luck!" Bitcoin for Freedom
Are you ready?
➡️Do you remember how the ETC posted on Twitter that Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralized digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation?
The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow, and inconvenient.
No, you don't remember it, and neither do I....haha
(picture 2)
➡️The state of Louisiana becomes the eleventh state to officially introduce a bill to protect fundamental Bitcoin rights.
This bill, sponsored by @WrightLouisiana, protects:
Your right to buy, sell, and trade Bitcoin
Your right to mine & validate
Your right to self-custody Bitcoin
Your right to run a full node
The momentum for Bitcoin is building at an impressive pace, with Louisiana stepping into the spotlight as the eleventh state to introduce legislation aimed at protecting Bitcoin users' fundamental rights.
➡️Stanford Endowment has bought Bitcoin at 45k.
In February, pitched IBIT to Blyth Fund, the student-run fund which manages a portion of Stanford's Endowment.
Bitcoin is now ~7% of the portfolio.
The thesis, which tried to remain as objectively bullish as possible while catering to an audience of skeptics, revolved around 3 key factors:
-ETF Inflows
-Cyclicality of Bitcoin
-Schelling Point For Monetary Chaos + War
Here's the pitch (25min) that convinced them to buy:
https://twitter.com/kolelee_/status/1764745867435921745
➡️The whole world’s getting repriced in terms of Bitcoin…and there’ll only ever be 21 million…which means everything’s still overvalued by about 330x.
https://twitter.com/w_s_bitcoin/status/1764661974074286093
This means Bitcoin is undervalued by 330x.
➡️"The Senator who said “Bitcoin can open the doors of corruption in El Salvador," was just indicted on 18 counts for obstruction of justice.
Federal Prosecutors seized $100,000 in gold bars and $480,000 in hidden cash from his home.
Quelle dommage…" - RaderHits
➡️Germany's largest stock exchange Deutsche Börse has launched a Bitcoin and crypto trading platform for institutions.
➡️On the 5th of March: "The ten Bitcoin ETFs did $10b in volume today, smashing the previous record set last Wed. Volatility and volume go hand in hand with ETFs so not totally surprised. That said these are bananas numbers for ETfs under 2mo old."
Although this sounds great, five companies (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META) are hoarding a combined $517B of cash.
A mere 1.67% of that is equivalent to the $8.5B of total net inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs, so far.
Ask yourself what will happen if Blackrock advisors are talking to these five companies to allocate 1-5% into Bitcoin via IBIT.
We are not there yet, and I quote Joe Carlasara:
"The bigger the realized market cap of Bitcoin, the MORE attractive it becomes to big money.
Countless players still view the Bitcoin market as too small to merit attention. This changes when the market is 3x to 5x larger.
As a fund manager who I speak with regularly said, “If it can sustain itself above $100,000, we might start to nibble.”
Understanding this dynamic is key."
➡️On the 7th of March, we received the news that BlackRock filed with the SEC to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs for its $15B Global Allocation Fund. Its $36b Strategic Income Opportunities Fund will also buy Bitcoin ETFs, as announced last week.
"Blackrock has $10 Trillion in assets under management.
Another $20 Trillion of funds use their Aladdin platform to make portfolio allocations.
BlackRock has stated that the optimal Bitcoin allocation is 84.9% of a portfolio.
Of course, few will do this, but we now have the world's biggest fund manager telling investors to get off zero.
Ernst & Young estimates that $200 Trillion of Institutional assets could not touch Bitcoin until an ETF was approved. "
➡️On the 8th of March: "BlackRock Bitcoin ETF is set to break $10 BILLION in total flows today.
Fidelity is a strong second place with $6 Billion.
Demand is strong and is set to grow as more investment platforms and banks allow these ETFs onto their platforms." - Bitcoin Archive
Just for some context on the Fidelity bit.
Fidelity Bitcoin ETF smashed through its former record high with $473 million of inflows on the 7th of March.
➡️Today we received the news that VanEck drops Bitcoin ETF fees to ZERO until March 2025! You have no clue what is coming! Hell, game theory!
➡️After the 8th of March, BlackRock passed Microstrategy on Bitcoin owned.
Microstrategy took 3.5 years to reach it, and BlackRock made it in less than 2 months. yikes
Blackrock saw its biggest one-day inflow ever this week, acquiring 12.6K Bitcoin ($842M).
Their total holdings on the 9th of March stood at 196K Bitcoin. (picture 8)
➡️Saylor is a freaking Chad though. MicroStrategy approaching $8 BILLION in profit on their Bitcoin position. And today we received the news that
MicroStrategy acquired an additional 12,000 BTC for $821.7M MSTR now hodls 205,000 BTC acquired for ~$6.91B at an average price of $33,706 per Bitcoin.
Pretty crazy stats:
The New 9 have flipped GBTC.
IBIT has flipped MSTR.
In general, "the first two months are officially in the books (it's felt like six) and the ten bitcoin ETFs now have over $55b in assets with exactly double that in volume at $110b. If these were the numbers at the end of the year I'd call them a success. To do it in eight weeks is simply absurd." - Eric Balchunas
Wall Street is now in Control.
➡️Billionaire entrepreneur, Mark Cuban, calls Bitcoin a great store of value and states that he expects the price to go up due to supply and demand. It wasn’t long ago he claimed Bitcoin was worthless.
Just remember, their change in tone didn't happen by accident. The narrative is changing.
➡️“OurBitcoin price target is now well above $1M by 2030, and with our new expectations for institutional involvement, the incremental price that we assume for institutions actually has more than doubled," says ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood
➡️Bitcoin miners recorded the second-highest daily revenue ever at $75.9M on March 6th, the same day Hut 8 closed a Canadian site due to power issues and high energy costs, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno.
➡️Bitcoin miners are returning to the market after bear market hibernation, burning record energy and buying $1B worth of mining equipment despite the impending halving, according to Bloomberg.
➡️The only thing rising faster than U.S. debt is the Bitcoin hash rate.
Hash is the real thing! Everything else is just noise.
➡️Bitcoin is demonetising Gold ETFs as the 'Store of Value' narrative takes hold.
Bitcoin ETFs are taking in billions, while Gold ETFs are bleeding assets.
Bitcoin ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$54 for BTC
$96b for Gold
(picture 3)
Bitcoin ETF volume surpasses $100 BILLION
This exceeds total flows into all physical gold ETFs over the past five years
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have CPI, retail sales, and PPI. In Europe, it’s the euro area industrial production, Sweden and Norway CPI, and UK labor market data. In Asia, we have India and China's CPI and the PBOC’s MLF rate decision.
"The S&P 500 has hit a record 5180 and is now up an incredible 26% in just 4 months.
Since the October 2023 low, the S&P 500 has added nearly 1,100 points.
In just 88 trading days, the S&P 500 has added $9 TRILLION in market cap.
That's an average of $102 billion per trading day for 88 days straight.
Since the March 2020 pandemic low, the S&P 500 is up 137%." - TKL
👉🏽"Nvidia, the 3rd biggest company in the world, fell 10% in 30 minutes on the 8th of March.
That's a company with $2.3 trillion in market cap trading like a penny stock.
Is it weird that this feels completely normal now?" - TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"New York Community Bank stock crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."
The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.
NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse of Signature Bank during the regional bank crisis.
This comes just weeks after the bank posted an unexpected $260 million loss in Q4 2023.
The stock is now at its lowest level since 1997."
On the day I posted last week's Weekly Recap, see the part above, New York Community Bank crashed 42% and has trading halted. Yikes
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Last week we received the news that the US payrolls were revised, again! January payrolls revised from 353K to... 229K
How many illegal immigrants were hired in February to make the Bidenomics "beat by 30K then revise it down by 50K next month" quota? Take a guess...
in February 1.2 million foreign-born workers (immigrants, both legal and illegal) found a new job. Meanwhile, 500K native-born American workers lost their jobs. And the bide admin is bragging about 250K jobs last month.
So what does that tell us...the market / financial economy rallies on what turns out to be false data and then rallies some more on the new false data and ignores the corrected data.
Rinse & repeat. Numbers don't mean a thing.
Just to give you some more info:
In the past year, the US has created 921,000 part-time jobs and lost 284,000 full-time jobs.
They just forget to mention this to the public. But Felipe, the headline jobs number says the US has added jobs for 38 straight months.
How is this possible?
Over the last 12 months, these full-time jobs have been replaced by 921,000 part-time jobs, according to Zerohedge.
The true number of workers employed in the United States right now is at its lowest since May 2023.
Last month, payrolls jumped by 275,000 but the total number of individuals employed fell by 184,000.
Just to give you some more details I quote Zerohedge:
"1. In the past year,
the US has lost 284K full-time jobs, these have been replaced with 921K part-time jobs
2. In February alone,
a record 1.2 million foreign-born jobs
were added.
3. In the past three months,
a record (ex-covid crash) 2.4 million native-born jobs have been lost,
including 494K jobs lost in February.
4. Most shocking,
since May 2018, there have been ZERO jobs created for native-born Americans. All jobs in the past 6 years have gone to immigrants, legal and illegal."
The US labor market is strong, right?
Here's a visual representation of the MASSIVE downward revisions in the jobs reports. (picture 4)
👉🏽"Credit card debt is now above the pre-covid trendline. The Savings rate... is not." - Zerohedge
(picture 5)
But hey, they say things like "the economy is strong", and "everything is fine.".
What you see is inflated debt from thin air using fake money. Eventually, UBI & CBDC will be offered in the depths of the crisis.
More on the DEBT bit...
"To put things into perspective: It took Uncle Sam 232 years to accumulate its first $10tn in debt, 9 years to accumulate its second, and 5 years to reach its third. The trip from $33 to $34tn in debt was a short one, requiring only 3 months, from Sep to Dec of 2023, Strategas has calculated."
(picture 6)
👉🏽ECB's Lagarde signals a June rate cut with 2% inflation in sight. Markets agree and price in 97bps cut for 2024.
At the same time in the US, FED chair Jerome Powell: "We are not looking for inflation to go all the way down to 2% but we do need more evidence".
Ergo: Grooming the sheep for 3% thievery,...I mean inflation.
I fully believe that the next decade(s) will be much more inflationary so the government continues to deficit spend 9print money to keep the economy artificially afloat.
👉🏽Gold has hit another record, but the volume of gold ETFs keeps falling. This indicates that demand is not coming from private or institutional investors, but that other players are stocking up on the precious metal. Central banks were a major driver of Gold prices in 2022/2023 and will likely continue to be so in 2024. This is ominous for the (current) monetary system.
👉🏽Meanwhile, in China, massive lines form across China as citizens rush to buy gold in an effort to preserve their wealth amidst a declining economy.
How long until they start finding ways to obtain Bitcoin?
👉🏽A couple of Weekly Recaps I shared some info on the average number of usual weekly hours of work in the main job across Europe.
"In the Netherlands, roughly half of all employees work 35 hours or less, and polls show that even more people would like to work less. The same trend occurs in many other Western countries as well. This is fine as long as you accept that GDP growth will be structurally lower because of this. Yet GDP growth remains one of the key ‘promises’ of every politician and central banker. To realize artificial growth, the same ‘magic’ ingredient is used over and over again. Debt! As a result, debt is now the primary ‘source’ of growth around the globe." - Jeroen Blokland (picture 7)
Now sometimes working less produces more. But that is not the case. Productivity has risen much faster in the US than in the Eurozone. So not only has the US a much stronger demographics than Europe, but also productivity is way better than Europe. Now the real question would be...how great is the quality of that productivity?
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/22089f01-8468-4905-8e36-fd35d2b2293e
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
A great What Bitcoin Did podcast. And please I urge you to watch the interview on YouTube because of the in-depth charts:
Bitcoin’s Biggest Bull Run with
@therationalroot
- The pace of this bull market
- Bitcoin ETF growth & flows
- What to expect post halving
- The changing dynamics of the market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fuek7IalU8&t=1818s
“I think we’ll just get to prices from a million to 10 million at some point, and then Bitcoin is going to be such a big currency that it just becomes a better currency than the US dollar obviously…that will also be a gradual transition.”Free knowledge!
Anyway, that's it for today.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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https://void.cat/d/YcQrb6FrGSy5ixQQcvKm8y.webp
https://void.cat/d/5uyFPidDeFNRotATz5kiTi.webp
https://void.cat/d/RLtZa6SbN3Bk3Doscf5K4V.webp
https://void.cat/d/JE6YV8sDP9Ngq4UFyUozvk.webp
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https://void.cat/d/HaWdiv9kVTs6ehQeZLdVin.webp

2024-03-10 19:23:57

“Bitcoiners become more conscientious consumers because they recognize the opportunity cost of parting with their bitcoin today.
They know that every particular purchase (e.g., dishwasher, laptop, holiday, etc.) will eventually become the most expensive one they ever make.” @npub14hn…a32x
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #thepriceoftomorrow https://image.nostr.build/33992ad1a41d055bb416232b05d1d42cc8ceb517832ba0130c036d19ab548dac.jpg

2024-03-09 14:55:55

Forget the numbers, but I agree with the logic, just do the math and follow the trend. Everything priced in BTC is getting cheaper.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #thepriceoftomorrow https://image.nostr.build/6986ad280dd1ec9249e340fd9b9d0b22d339f2a7b27469b3bb9a34a4f00ff8ab.jpg

2024-03-09 14:54:44

- reply

GM freaks 🧡💙

2024-03-05 19:06:32

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"If the China mining ban and FTX selling billions of dollars of fake Bitcoin in 2021 did suppress the price, then it's likely that the real previous all-time high should have been > $100,000.
That would potentially explain how we're so close to new "highs" already.
If the price was suppressed in 2021, which it undoubtedly was to some extent, then maybe we’re just making normal progress back to the “would have been” all-time high of over $100,000.
It might be possible that bitcoin outperforms the muted returns seen last cycle. At the end of the day, bitcoin is objectively the world’s best money due to its superior monetary properties. 93% of all coins have already been mined and less than 1% of the world has a serious allocation. So get ready, this could get out of control quickly." - Joe Burnett
Very well put and succinct. I think Joe is right, I have been saying that last year also.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Let's start the Weekly Recap with the tweet that made me spit out my coffee:
"Let's be honest
A lot of people did not expect Bitcoin to get back to ATH territory with Fed Funds at 5.33% and the average mortgage rate at 7.27%
It was a speculative, zero-interest rate, easy money phenomenon, they said.
Boy, do we have news for you!" - Alex Gladstein
Just imagine what will happen if they (the FED) will lower rates...just imagine.
➡️11 days ago, the European Central Bank said Bitcoin's fair value is zero.
Yesterday, BTC reached an all-time high vs the Euro.
Bitcoin is up 285% since the European Central Bank said Bitcoin was on "the road to irrelevance".
It was literally the bottom of the bear market.
➡️UK authorities push for regulation to seize your Bitcoin.
„Authorities will be able to retrieve crypto assets directly from exchanges and custodian wallet providers.“ https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/269/made/data.pdf
Get your Bitcoin off exchanges and into cold storage, now!
➡️ Australian bank, Commonwealth Bank, limits users’ ability to buy cryptocurrency as Bitcoin hits new ATH in the country.
"If they can control how you spend your money, it’s not your money."
➡️Balance of Bitcoin on OTC desks hits lowest levels since Q4 2018.
More on that topic...
➡️All in all last week Friday, just over $2.3B worth of Bitcoin left on exchanges. One of the biggest withdrawals in over 5 years. (Roughly $200M of this was sent to Coinbase Prime) so let’s call it $2B.
Binance saw about $400M and has seen fairly big outflows for the past few days. Coinbase saw the rest.
Binance outflows are the interesting ones because they have nothing to do with the ETF.
Talking about Coinbase...
➡️Coinbase crashed again during the Bitcoin rally that hit $67,000, showing zero for customer balances.
Coinbase also crashed last week in the middle of a rally.
➡️Bitcoin Inflows to accumulation addresses (never spend) reach an all-time high.
➡️The price of a house has gone from 20 Bitcoin to under 7 Bitcoin IN LESS THAN A YEAR.
➡️This was not on my Bitcoin 24' Bingo card and I still find it hard to believe, but the WEF finally shared something positive about Bitcoin. I guess that is the power of Larry Fink (BlackRock).
"Just remember, their change in tone didn't happen by accident.
CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, is on the WEF Board of Trustees.
BlackRock is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF provider in the world and they are adding billions of dollars in Bitcoin every week to their fund.
Make no mistake: the narrative is changing." - The Bitcoin Therapist
In the video, the WEF shows how one of Africa’s largest natural parks uses hydroelectricity to mine Bitcoin generating $150,000 a month. It also uses the heat generated by Bitcoin mining ASICS to make chocolate.
https://twitter.com/gladstein/status/1763944314437009451
"I am not mentally prepared to deal with videos from the World Economic Forum that promote the positive social and sustainability benefits of Bitcoin mining. The cognitive dissonance is too much.
Is this the turn of the tide?" - Freddie New
Anyway, the truth will always prevail.
More on the mining bit...
➡️1.5 GIGAWATTS of Bitcoin mining have officially reported their grid balancing activity to the ‘Curtailment Survey’.
That is enough power to heat 1.5 million small homes or energize 300 large hospitals.
It is critical now, more than ever that we help paint a clear picture for lawmakers and regulators on the value of Bitcoin mining as a large flexible consumer of power.
➡️El Salvador’s congress passes a tax code amendment, changing the threshold for requesting buyer documents from $200 to $25,000. This helps maintain privacy for those who are using Bitcoin in the country. Great move by El Salvador. By implementing this tax code amendment BTC is treated more like a normal currency. If you exchange 25k USD worth you have to record the transaction and the bank needs to know who the customer is. Before it was a threshold of $200.
➡️Texas Blockchain Council's lawsuit successfully stops the Biden administration from government data collection on Bitcoin miners.
The Government agrees to destroy the data collected.
➡️Jack Mallers at Bitcoin Atlantis in Madeira says Strike will be available in Europe within a matter of weeks.
➡️Feb 2024 printed a $19.84k Bitcoin candle, the largest monthly USD increase in history.
This added $390B to the Bitcoin market cap...
Up a remarkable 47%.
➡️Bitcoin officially enters Bull market territory on Plan B's model with the first since 2021.
This usually marks the start of a parabolic move.
Although it is just a model, most of PlanB's forecasts were inaccurate. It tells you something... bull market is on. And it is already on for a couple of months.
➡️"Bitcoin has already reached all-time-high prices in 11 of the top 20 global currencies.
The rest will follow as governments continue to print money to cover for their deficit spending.
People are opting out of this madness around the world, and we get called crazy for it." fellow Dutchie...Sam Wouters (picture 1)
When we talk about Bitcoin ATH, we usually mean in USD or if you are living in Europe in EURO. But in 11 of the top 20 fiat currencies, they have already hit a new ATH. Crazy don't you think? Bitcoin is the apex predator and you can't stop it. It is coming...it's coming to a currency near you!
➡️Great tweet by Dennis Porter:
"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math."
Dennis is spot on!
➡️On the 26th of February GBTC sent only 776 Bitcoin to Coinbase premium ($39m).
Since the ETFs launch, the 11th of January is the lowest amount of Bitcoin so far that GBTC sent to Coinbase before the opening of the trading day.
The two trading days before GBTC sent more than $150m of BTC to Coinbase premium and the total outflow at the end of the day was $55m and $44m.
On the 2nd of March: "Today was another huge liquidation by Genesis out of GBTC: $492MM in outflows. But after this and yesterday's $600MM, there is almost nothing left of the $1.3BN Genesis was cleared to liquidate."
You might be saying, now that we witnessed a positive inflow last week, and the price of Bitcoin reacted accordingly last week.
More ETF news...
➡️ BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF "broke its personal record again" trading over $1.3 billion on the 27th of February. Before the market opening on the 27th...
"Another thing about IBIT volume that's notable is the amount of pre-market activity.. check this out, it's already seen $80m traded.. only 5 ETFs have seen more activity ahead of mkt open. Unprecedented for 2-month-old ETF."
Just to put it in perspective how fucking insane the IBIT ETF is:
"IBIT is the newest member of the $10 Billion Club, the fastest ever to get there. Only 152 ETFs in this club (out of 3,400) including $GBTC. First $10b so touch bc so much has to come from flows (in $IBITs case 78% of aum is flows). Second $10b is easier because market appreciation bigger variable." Eric Balchunas
"Let's not forget that in August 2022, 1.5 years ago, Black Rock and its wealthiest clients front-ran their own spot Bitcoin ETF announcement and ultimate approval. The price at this time was just over $20,000.
They also gobbled up the FTX dip down to $15,500. Like him or not, Larry Fink is playing chess while most others are still playing checkers"- Oliver L. Velez
More BlackRock Bitcoin ETF news:
➡️Blackrock debuts the iSHARES Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT39) on B3, Brazil’s major stock exchange.
The initial management fee is set at 0.25% but will drop to 0.12% after the fund reaches $5 billion in assets under management (AUM).
➡️Bitcoin is demonetising Gold ETFs as the 'Store of Value' narrative takes hold.
Bitcoin ETFs are taking in billions, while Gold ETFs are bleeding assets. picture 2+3
ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$40.7 for BTC
$92b for Gold
After just 31 trading days! Mindblowing!
➡️Coinbase reports that Texas voters are interested in presidential candidates' positions on Bitcoin.
4.7M Texas adults (21%) own 'crypto', and 74% of them are likely to support candidates who stand alongside the national cryptocurrency industry.
➡️According to Bitinfocharts, Google Trends for Bitcoin is now back to 2015 levels (when Bitcoin was $200). It’s over $50,000 now and the general public couldn’t care less.
➡️Mr. 100 bought 5x 100 Bitcoin on the 25th of February (USD 26m), after buying 4x 100 BTC the day before. Mr. 100 has purchased an average of 100 Bitcoin per day since November 2022. It now holds 51,164 BTC worth $3.1 billion. Mental!
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mystery-whale-has-quietly-accumulated-over-3-billion-bitcoin-15-months
➡️Tim Buckley is stepping down as CEO of Vanguard at the end of the year. Kind of a shocker tbh although he has been there 33 years. Greg Davis was appointed President. The board is on search now for a new CEO.
Now some people may say this all has to do with the decision not to start a Bitcoin ETF, others will say this has nothing to do with Bitcoin. In the end, I don’t see why it wouldn’t have to do with the Bitcoin decision. Being that it’s the hottest ETF product of our lifetime. And Vanguard would likely have been #1. Plus how many customers did they anger/lose by banning the other ETFs? It doesn’t help that Bitcoin mooned too. "Higher Bitcoin prices aren't the problem. Exposing yourself as knowing nothing about economics, finance, or technology.
That's the problem.
Vanguard had 3 options:
a) be right and make money
b) be wrong and make money
c) be wrong and lose money
They went with C."
➡️Someone who just started DCA'ing $1,000 per week into Bitcoin will probably never reach a whole coin.
➡️Some clown news from the crazy world called Ethereum. You know, the mother shitcoin from which all shitcoin sprung. Ethereum Foundation's Michael Neuder wants to change the issuance curve of Ethereum; takes inspiration from the Central Bank of Japan.
I am not surprised...if you are still investing in ETH... HFSP! I am not going to sugarcoat it anymore.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In North America, we have ISM and Payrolls, testimony from Fed Chair Powell and a Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, the focus will be on the European Central Bank meeting and post-meeting press conference with ECB president Lagarde. In Asia, with inflation and earnings data in Japan, China aggregate financing and RBM loan growth, Korea industrial production and CPI, Australia GDP and the Bank Negara policy meeting.
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey,
Although Nvidia again skyrocketed last week we see that institutional money is rotating out of tech.
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1762118405266563108
👉🏽Over the last 16 years, US stocks have gained 427% vs. 85% for International stocks and 36% for Emerging Markets. This is the longest cycle of US outperformance that we’ve ever seen.
This sounds great, but it is the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth. Currently DEBT/Ratio is at an unsustainable 137%. Now ask yourself? Did the market grow that much because of sheer productivity and technology or is it more based on liquidity (hence: DEBT)? More on this topic below, segment Macro/Geopolitics.
Oh regarding the unsustainable 137 % debt/GDP. In terms of debt-to-GDP, the last time the U.S. saw this level was during World War II.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"New York Community Bank stock crashes 20%+ after reporting "material weakness in internal controls."
The weakness is reportedly related to loan review resulting from ineffective oversight and risk assessment.
NYCB is the same bank that acquired the collapse of Signature Bank during the regional bank crisis.
This comes just weeks after the bank posted an unexpected $260 million loss in Q4 2023.
The stock is now at its lowest level since 1997."
In general, the delinquency rate among large banks hits 3%, the highest in 11 years.
The delinquency rate among small banks hits 7.80%, the highest on record.
👉🏽On the first of March: THE WHITE HOUSE: THE BANKING SYSTEM REMAINS SOUND, AND IS RESILIENT.
Buckle up people, buckle up! haha
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
In last week's Weekly Recap I already mentioned that the US borrowed a shit lot of money. This week... oh well they did the same:
"While everyone was busy talking about AI stocks this week, the US borrowed another $100 BILLION in 4 days. Currently, total US debt stands at a record $34.5 trillion, up $11.2 TRILLION since 2020.
At the current pace, the US deficit for this fiscal year will cross $3 trillion, nearly double the $1.6 trillion deficit that Congress estimated. Over the last 100 days, total US debt is up a whopping $1 trillion, an average of $10 billion per day.
We should see $35 trillion+ in US debt within a couple of months."-TKL
Now if you don't believe you need Bitcoin, here is a statement by the Bank of America:
"The US national debt is rising $1 trillion every 100 days, according to Bank of America. They estimate it will take just 95 days for the debt to climb to $35 trillion from $34 trillion, compared to the 92 days it took to grow to $33 trillion from $32 trillion.
This is making “debt debasement” trades attractive like bitcoin and gold says BoA."
Okay one more statement: The U.S. national debt is rising by the entire market cap of Bitcoin every ~100 days.
Opt-out: Bitcoin
👉🏽Another HUGE call from Apollo on the first of March:
"The Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer."
Apollo says the US economy is not slowing down, and the Fed pivot has provided a strong tailwind to growth since December. They also note that many measures of inflation are pointing higher again including Supercore Inflation at 4.5%.
Meanwhile, asking rents are rising, more cities are seeing rising rents and home prices are rising.
Just 2 months ago, markets were pricing in 6 rate cuts in 2024.
The Fed's job is far from done." - TKL
Ergo: the struggle for everyday people will remain. Inflation will remain, and the difference/gap between the financial economy and the real economy will remain. Higher for longer just like what happened in the 1970's. If breaking inflation was as easy as raining rates for a few quarters, everyone would do it. I have said it multiple times don't get surprised if inflation will re-accelerate in the upcoming year(s).
👉🏽"Good Morning from Germany, which is obviously in a recession. At least that is what many indicators suggest: economic slack – demand falling increasingly short of potential output – is reappearing, acc to HFE. Widening slack stabilizes or depresses prices because in such an environment pricing power of comps is weakened." Holger Zschaepitz
👉🏽"Eurozone CPI slowed less than anticipated in Feb, highlighting stickiness in inflation. Headline inflation eased to 2.6% YoY in Feb, above the 2.5% consensus estimate in the BBG survey. Core inflation came down by 0.2%-pt to 3.1%, also an upward surprise compared to a 2.9% consensus estimate.
👉🏽A strong visual representation of the actual cost of corruption: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1763982945897906403
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Very inspiring keynote by Daniel Batten at Bitcoin Atlantis in Madeira on the mitigation of methane emissions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bikLdxCKQjc
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/JcxQNBsa97kg24JAfJvZVk.webp
https://void.cat/d/PAnttTW6bhC2r39wU7rYV1.webp
https://void.cat/d/2L8GCRsJeULAfQxgKDbcnP.webp
https://void.cat/d/WZuv4jrSj2k8odKTp95Zuo.webp

2024-02-26 21:18:32

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime to earn money and then get robbed by inflation without knowing. If they’d spend 100 hours (0.1%) of that time to learn about money their lives would change drastically." - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️Satoshi Nakamoto's earliest collaborator Martii 'Sirius' Malmi just released their entire email history.
At 120 pages, it's the most significant addition to the archives of Bitcoin's unknown inventor.
Here are the most important new findings:
https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040092087337196
I urge you to read that thread by Pete Rizzo. What you will learn, giving some insights into the mind of Satoshi, revealing early Bitcoin insights, including the origin of "cryptocurrency" terms and views on anonymity.
Caitlin Long is pointing this out oh so eloquently: https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1761072087064629507
➡️The Texas Blockchain Council and Riot Platforms are fighting back against the Biden Administration’s emergency request to collect sensitive data regarding Bitcoin miners' energy consumption by filing a lawsuit to halt the measure.
"The Bitcoin network is receiving an average of $607m per day of new investor demand while this is being met by $46m per day of new supply in the form of new coins being mined. New demand is calculated by a change in the realized cap, the accumulated price investors paid for their BTC. This method underestimates the true demand due to off-chain buy/sells not being accounted for." Willy Woo
Repeat after me, hello supply shock! We are now 60 days away from seeing the new supply being halved.
➡️MicroStrategy acquires 3,000 Bitcoin for $155 million. This brings their total stack to 193,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of $31,544 per bitcoin.
➡️"Today, over $5.5 trillion in assets sits in state pension funds.
If even 3% of AUM in state pensions leaks into the Bitcoin ETF that would equal $165 billion of new inflows.
Since launching, the Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $8 billion of inflows.
I’ll let you do the math." - Dennis Porter
➡️"Fidelity and Accenture hosted 100 bank executives and asset managers in Paris last week to learn more about Bitcoin and how to prepare as an institution." -Bitcoin Archive
➡️Bitcoin price surged 23% this month, driven by US ETF approvals and strong buying during US trading hours (12%), according to Matrixport. European (7%) and Asian (4%) markets also contributed to the gains.
➡️Bitcoin has passed all-time highs in at least fourteen countries. In fourteen countries representing 1B+ people and $7T+ in GDP, Bitcoin is becoming lifeboat. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1760638270462104048
This is the power of a decentralized, global store of value. Remember, Bitcoin has no top because fiat printing has no end.
➡️"For those considering Bitcoin. Remember to hold for 4 years. It's never returned below 30% annualized for a 4-year investment, no matter how badly timed...
BTC: 30-60%, 75% drawdowns
SP500: 10%, 35% drawdowns
Real Estate: 10%, 30%+ drawdowns
VC Funds: 15%-27%, 10-year lock up" - Willy Woo
➡️Last week we received the news that Reddit bought Bitcoin with its excess cash and may continue to do so with future cash flows.
➡️The European Central Bank's Bitcoin bashing article gets Community Noted into oblivion. Gotta love it!
The bank claims Bitcoin has "failed on its promise" and that the ETF is proof. https://twitter.com/ecb/status/1760580254920212640
Meanwhile, the Euro has lost 99.5% of its value vs. Bitcoin in less than 10 years. (picture 1)
97% of all trading days are in profit for Bitcoin.
While the ECB's skepticism on Bitcoin is noted, it's essential to remember that value is often subjective and ever-evolving. The Euro vs Bitcoin chart can offer insights, but the true worth of Bitcoin goes beyond mere numbers.
"In politics, a common tactic of deflecting attention from your own non-performance is to spread misinformation about a competitor. With a renewed attack on Bitcoin on the same day as its worst performance in 2 decades, it seems the ECB is recycling the same strategy."
➡️On the 23rd of February, someone sent 1.3 billion dollars of Bitcoin for a $2 fee, and no one could stop it. But he, the ECB said it's slow and expensive, right?! Now try that with fiat.
➡️Non-ETF entity makes $1.3B Bitcoin purchase (26.2K BTC at $51K).
➡️"Bitcoin as exponential gold: In the past I’ve explored Bitcoin mostly from a demand perspective, studying S-curves to generate a demand-driven valuation framework. Today I’m presenting my supply-driven approach, which is a variation on the stock-to-flow (S2F) concept."
Nice conceptualization of Bitcoin as digital gold on steroids from Jurrien Timmer. Read the full thread here: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1760677789865512980
➡️Bitcoin whales move 18K Bitcoin ($1B) off Coinbase, splitting it into cold wallets ranging from $45M to $171M
➡️Genesis is selling 1B dollars worth of Bitcoin this month and nobody seems to notice or care. Why not? $1B GBTC outflow = 2 days of ETF inflows.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings reach $6.5 billion. They now match 2/3 of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stack.
- "The Bitcoin ETFs bought $1,020,100,000 of Bitcoin this week.
That is $255,025,000 of bought Bitcoin per trading day.
That is $64,521,325,000 of demand per year.
There will be approximately 191,250 Bitcoin issued in the next 365 days.
That is $337,366 of ETF money coming in per Bitcoin issued.
What happens if there is a market multiple of 10:1, 100:1, or 500:1?...
What happens when demand for Bitcoin ETFs increases at all?...
What happens at the next halving?
Wake up. Get off zero."- Luke Broyles
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF just broke $1 Billion in trading volume for the day.
➡️BitWise Bitcoin ETF is now available for recommendation by Registered Investment Advisors of $30B in assets, one of the largest advisor networks in the USA- BitWise CEO
More ETF news...
➡️Four spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved on the $30 BILLION advisor network platform by the Carson Group.
➡️Another week of Bitcoin ETF inflows ($777mm) vs Gold ETF outflows (-$608mm).
Bitcoin ETFs saw an additional inflow of $265mm, while Gold ETFs saw an outflow of -$124mm on Friday. Every passing day brings the flippening closer.
➡️"Bitcoin as Legal Tender: El Salvador's Groundbreaking Decision and the Salvadorian Mainstream Media's Reaction"
Free report on El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption media coverage post-2021 law.
Insights from:
→ 1,440 articles
→ 5 major outlets
→ 152 reporters
Link below:
https://bitcoinperception.com/bitcoin-as-legal-tender-el-salvadors-groundbreaking-decision-and-the-salvadorian-mainstream-medias-reaction/
➡️JP Morgan announced plans to offer an actively managed Bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients. Wait what? The man, CEO Jamie Dimon, who lied to your face about Bitcoin being a Ponzi and wanting the government to ban it just 3months ago is now offering Bitcoin services to his rich clients.
Shocking!
➡️We've officially mined 93.5% of all the Bitcoin.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have core PCE inflation, house prices, and consumer confidence. In Europe, it’s the euro area consumer confidence, French, German, and Spanish flash inflation, and UK lending data. In Asia, with the China PMIs, Indonesia, Japan CPI and the RBNZ meeting
👉🏽Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Russia, South Korea, Australia, Spain, Indonesia, Turkey, Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia.
👉🏽The top 10% of stocks in the US now reflect ~75% of the entire market.
This is, by far, the most concentrated stock market since the Great Depression in 1931. (picture 2)
In the Dot-com bubble of 2001, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~72%.
Even before the 2008 Financial Crisis, the concentration of the top 10% of stocks peaked at ~66%.
On average, the top 10% of stocks reflect 64% of the entire stock market. -TKL
"- Jeff Bezos sold $8.5B of Amazon stock
bbc.com/news/business-…
- Walton family members sold $4.5B of Walmart stock
x.com/TrackInsiders_…
- Meta insiders sold $232M of stock in 2024
marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/…
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO since 2006, first-time ever sold $150M of company stock. He announced in Oct he would sell 1 million of his 8.6 million shares for “financial diversification and tax-planning purposes”.
reuters.com/markets/us/jpm…
- Total household debt rose by $212B to $17.5T in Q4 2023 including $1.13T in credit card debt
newyorkfed.org/microeconomics…
- The US Government borrowed $260B last month equating to $3.1T annually with an overall debt of $34.3T
x.com/KobeissiLetter…
- The last time the market cap of the top 10% of stocks was this high was in early in the Great Depression
x.com/zerohedge/stat…
- The "Magnificent 7" have a market cap of $11.7T accounting for over 25% of the S&P 500 & more than that of Japan and Germany's exchanges combined
And, someone just bought 26,139 Bitcoin catapulting themselves to #29 on the rich list with $1.33B
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/addres…
What do the big boys know that we don't?"
🏦Banks:
On the 22nd of February: "It was a great day for the Swiss National Bank which first printed money out of thin air, then bought 148,900 shares of SMCI and today made a cool $36 million profit"- Zerohedge
This is the absurdity of fiat money just print some worthless money and buy real assets with them. (please read my weekly recap from the 19th of February, segment Bitcoin, the statement made by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. You will understand the above absurdity.) https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvzqrfawsca7eydfdgmsupyhxqfxrura28fdude4pvpmdwcm3mq0qzyq78msk9slhvupg0h3jcpxckp8geyplcyhwhva2tnyz7nj5q2ep2sqmlzax
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"While everyone was busy watching Nvidia, the US borrowed another $260 BILLION last month.
On an annualized basis, this puts the US on track to borrow ~$3.1 trillion in 2024.
Total US debt now stands at a record $34.33 trillion, or 2.8 TIMES the market cap of the Magnificent 7. (picture 3)
Over the last 4 years alone, total US debt is officially up $11 trillion and counting.
At the current rate, we will see $40 trillion in US debt by 2026 and that assumes a "soft landing."
Just imagine what would happen if we entered a recession." - TKL
I don't think we will see a recession no sooner than Q4 24'. The market needs to be at its best during the US election.
Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet is now at its lowest level since March 2021, down $1.4 trillion from its peak in April 2022.
How much more QT is needed to unwind the massive QE from March 2020- April 2022?
$3.4 trillion.
Never gonna happen!
I don't put a date on it, but we will see a FED balance sheet hit $15 trillion in the 'nearby' future.
👉🏽Germany's manufacturing downturn unexpectedly deepens amid falling demand at home and abroad. S&P Global’s PMI for the country’s industrial sector dropped to 42.3 from 45.5 the previous month – well below any economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The picture was brighter in France, where the contraction eased much more than analysts had predicted. Companies reported improving demand while expanding their workforce.
Read the full article here: https://archive.ph/2tQRL
The funniest part of the above statement..." unexpectedly".
"As if Germany wouldn’t have enough problems, in just a few years it will be hit by a massive pensions and healthcare entitlement crisis" (picture 4)
Now I might go a step too far but the picture below is (maybe) the reason why 'refugees are welcomed' in (West) Europe. Just a thought...
A dangerous cocktail, an energy cliff, a demographic cliff, and a cultural cliff hitting at the same time.
Europe right now: Either entitlements gonna be cut or taxes and/or immigration will be increased.
Oh by the way... one more fun fact about Europe...
"A reminder that as a European you aren't allowed to buy
SPY ETF
GLD ETF
SLV ETF
Any American Bitcoin ETF
What a world we are living in... Europe is becoming more and more totalitarian, opt out while you can.."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1760015120829165877
In other words, the government is going to continue f***ing up the economy until society reaches its breaking point. Noted!
👉🏽"In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn. 55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by the US, France, & Germany. BUT the global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, according to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop." - Holger Zschaepitz.
(picture 5)
Now let's do the increase in asset values....sure that is driven by technology and productivity right? Yes! but don't count out the fact that the global debt is up almost $250 trillion over the last 20 years. I firmly believe that the developed world (debt) is going to sink into the developing world...eventually.
I am just going to leave this here.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1761492225542717526
Nothing stops the train!
What the world needs:
👉🏽"President of Argentina Javier Milei will be introducing a bill to Congress to jail any Central Bank official who orders the Central Bank to print money to cover Argentina's deficits.
Milei will be defining seigniorage as a criminal offense with the objective of not being "able to issue money to finance the Treasury."
"The bill will define seigniorage as a criminal offense and in case the Central Bank finances the treasury, either directly or indirectly, the president of the Central Bank, the board of directors, the president of the Nation, and the officials who vote for it would end up in jail," Milei said during an interview.
"We have a strong commitment in the fiscal area, zero deficit is not negotiable."
"If you have zero deficit, you do not take on more debt. By not taking on more debt, the debt–product ratio becomes constant or decreasing and the counterpart of that is that you become more solvent." - Collin Rugg
Ergo: No more printing. No more spending. Learn to manage money better.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Another great newsletter by Lyn Alden
https://www.lynalden.com/february-2024-newsletter/
"The tighter the Fed gets in terms of monetary policy, the more it increases the government's interest expense, which leads to larger overall deficits, which is generally stimulatory and inflationary for the economy!"
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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https://void.cat/d/2QWH8DAyrkdHrhU1QBqEu8.webp
https://void.cat/d/VE38pAZfqwaMx4uQr2NDeQ.webp
https://void.cat/d/CYDyt7swbkK9PfuZ1VExPV.webp
https://void.cat/d/GNyWbp5prb1HAZzPxVfLvB.webp
https://void.cat/d/E2zoZpqMoxPeCixKXc25FV.webp

2024-02-20 21:38:28

Weekly Recap: 20.02.2024
🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"The scarcity of money controlled by no human being vs. the infinity of money manipulated and controlled by a small group of privileged men we don't even vote for.
I know which one I choose.
Bitcoin only." -Oliver L. Veleze
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/chart/housing/MSPNHSUS
The prices of homes just keep getting more and more affordable...
Affordable in Bitcoin terms.
This is exactly what Jeff Booth is talking about when he says Bitcoin is repricing everything…This is what happens when technology drives prices down and you have a currency that doesn’t steal from you. I urge you to read his book 'The Price of Tomorrow': https://cryptofriday.eu/index.php/books-articles/
➡️Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, made headlines on Wall Street in 2020 by converting his company's cash reserves to Bitcoin.
Financial experts laughed at the idea.
Today, his Bitcoin is worth $10,000,000,000.
➡️"Last week's (tweet by therationalroot) Bitcoin ETF data is in:
- ETF Net In-Flows consistently over +6K BTC this week
- Cumulative holdings at All-Time-High of 726K BTC
- Cumulative holdings up 100k BTC since launch
- BlackRock alone added over 30k BTC this week
- Grayscale down 166k since launch"
Bitcoin ETFs have taken in over $3 BILLION of new funds in just the last 7 days. On the 14th of February, it was the biggest day of inflows since launch day, with $631m!
Bitcoin ETFs are catching up to Gold ETFs for assets.
$37b for BTC $93b for Gold; After just 25 trading days!
"Blackrock doesn't care about sound money or ending the Fed.
But when Blackrock ETF buys up 500K Bitcoin, the price goes to 1M.
Blackrock makes $1.25B in annual fees - forever.
Follow the money." - Thomas Fahrer
More on Blackrock...
➡️Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas reports that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF has taken in $5.2 billion YTD, representing 50% of BlackRock's total net flows for their 417 ETFs.
More ETF news...
➡️A little perspective...
Bitwise the fourth largest of the new Bitcoin ETFs is buying up 880 BTC Per Day on Average.
Soon to be double the rate of Bitcoin mining supply.
➡️https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1759027406956900716
Supply & demand. Please watch that clip. After watching that clip please have a look at the following tweet:
https://twitter.com/BLACK1W1/status/1758793481756307814
It boggles the mind. Really, please read the tweet.
➡️Bitcoin has officially crossed above $1 trillion in market cap for the first time since December 2021.
Since December 2022, Bitcoin has added ~$700 billion in market cap. Bitcoin is back.
➡️94.5% of the Bitcoin supply is now in profit. Despite Bitcoin moving from $16.5k to $52k in 13 and half months, the amount of coins that didn’t move in the last 12 months remains close to the ATH at 70%.
➡️Coinbase's Bitcoin supply plunges to the lowest since 2015 after 18K BTC (~$1B) withdrawal.
In general, Bitcoin on exchanges falls significantly over the weekend. Bitcoin on all exchanges even hit the lowest level since 2017. In connection with the increased demand by ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, there will be even fewer coins in circulation. Hello, supply SHOCK!
➡️Bitcoin is at all-time highs in the following countries:
Laos
Burundi
Malawi
Nigeria
Myanmar
Ethiopia
Pakistan
Cuba
Ghana
Egypt
Congo
Iran
Suriname
Sierra Leone
Turkey
Sudan
Syria
Argentina
Lebanon
Venezuela
➡️"It's a great business to be in, Central Banking, where you print money and people believe it"
"We are 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱 on being the most cost-effective, fit-for-purpose Central Bank we can be. We are a full-service bank."- Adrian Orr
https://twitter.com/MikeStillBTC/status/1757329415489401152
The person in the video is the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The same guy claimed that ‘bitcoin is neither a medium of exchange, a store of value or a unit of account’.
Anyway, once you learn how the system works...
Bitcoin.
"Central Bankers think YOU are so dumb that they can just say this kind of stuff out loud.
Bitcoin is YOUR proof that they can't keep getting away with this theft." - Preston Pysh
➡️Elizabeth Warren's inflated claims of crypto's use to fund terrorism were debunked at a Congressional hearing "Committee members put the final nail in the coffin of the hyperinflated fears surrounding crypto and illicit finance" said Taylor Barr.
Meanwhile...
➡️Three more US states (Ohio, South Carolina, Mississippi) introduced the Blockchain Basics Act, aiming to protect citizens' Bitcoin rights at the state level.
➡️All-time high: Bitcoin Mining now offsets 7.5% of its emissions through methane mitigation.
Why it matters: COP28 was all about methane mitigation. Bitcoin Mining is uniquely poised to mitigate methane profitably
Full story & source: by Daniel Batten:
https://www.batcoinz.com/p/issue-002-all-time-highs
Bitcoin mining according to former CEO ERCOT (the guy who ran de grid of Texas. The reason why I am reposting so much stuff from Daniel Batten is that Bitcoin mining is so complex but also so important for Bitcoin but also our world.
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1759107766189461916\
Please read his tweet and the provided sources. Literally every day there's new data, and new analysis showing how Bitcoin mining is a net positive green tech/user of energy.
➡️"The FTX bankruptcy estate sold more than $1 billion worth of GBTC.
Many have celebrated as GBTC Outflows have recently slowed, but unfortunately, there's more selling on the horizon.
Another bankruptcy estate plans to sell billions worth of GBTC soon- Genesis."
For more info, I urge you to read the following thread:
https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1757445720880140555
➡️Bitcoin hit $50k.
Meanwhile, Google search volumes relative to price are at all-time lows. In other words, there is no retail FOMO buying.
➡️A coalition of leading banking and financial institutions has petitioned the SEC for an amendment to “SAB 121,” a regulation that has restricted banks from participating in the digital currency space.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the latest Fed meeting minutes and jobless claims, Fed-speak, and PMI data. In Europe, the focus will be on inflation expectations, PMI data, and communication from ECB officials. In Asia, with central bank meetings in Indonesia and Korea, and Australian wages data and RBA meeting minutes.
👉🏽"The combined revenue of the 4 largest US companies hit a record $1.5 trillion over last 12 months...
Amazon: $575 billion
Apple: $386 billion
Google: $307 billion
Microsoft: $228 billion
That's larger than the GDP of all but 14 countries." - TKL
👉🏽"Since February 2023:
1. Magnificent 7: +77%
2. S&P 500: +20%
3. Russel 2000: +5%
4. S&P 500 Equal Weight: +4%
If you remove the Magnificent 7 from the S&P 500, the index is barely up 5% over the last year.
n other words, if you bought all S&P 500 stocks other than tech last year at this time, you're almost breaking even.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for a record 35% of the ENTIRE index." - TKL
🏦Banks:
no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽US inflation: Both headline and core CPI came in above consensus expectations.
Core CPI growth is proving particularly sticky. The money supply is soon expected to return to growth again. The potential risk of inflationary impulse remains.
This is super core inflation - a measure of sticky inflationary pressures Powell & Co. often refer to:
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1757414499684905372
Ergo: we are not out of the (inflation) woods!
👉🏽"Prediction markets are now pricing in just 4 rate cuts in 2024 after January CPI inflation hits 3.1%.
This is a huge slide in expectations as markets were pricing in 6 rate cuts just over a month ago, according to Kalshi. The most recent Fed guidance was for 3 interest rate cuts in 2024.
Odds of a March interest rate cut are below 10% and odds of a May rate cut are plummeting." - TKL
Personally, I think with the upcoming US election I don't expect any rate cuts till Q4 24.
👉🏽German banks prepare for huge loan defaults in ‘greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis’ - CNN
Now you might think this is a German bank's problem. Well, that's true. But it is the US Commercial Real Estate defaults that are putting pressure on German banks if anyone is wondering:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/07/business/pbb-bad-loans-real-estate-crisis/index.html
Something (CRE) I discussed in my recent Weekly Recaps. The main question is, how many other countries will experience this?
👉🏽https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1757535468449865801
(picture1)
Total debt +$31BN today to a record high of $34.229 Trillion.
BTC is worth less than 3% of the US national debt. Humanity holds ~37x more wealth in debt from a bankrupt government than in the world’s best money. we are so early!
👉🏽Current economies in recession:
Peru
Japan
Ireland
Estonia
Finland
Moldova
Denmark
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
China and Germany are in trouble.
👉🏽After 2 months of the Milei presidency:
- Financial surplus: “Argentina Sees First Monthly Budget Surplus In 12 Years”.
- 7 billion USD in reserves
- BCRA's liabilities are being liquidated
- Monetary base almost stalled in nominal terms
- Lower exchange rate gap
- National public spending is down
- Provinces are also beginning to spend less
- Inflation is slowing
- Country risk index lower
- S&P Merval strong pump in USD
👉🏽Direct foreign investment into China slumps to 30y low. Foreign firms only added $33bn to their FDI liabilities, the lowest since 1993, indicating a lack of confidence. China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments stood at $33 billion last year, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released Sunday. That measure of new foreign investment into the country — which records monetary flows connected to foreign-owned entities in China — was 82% lower than the 2022 level and the lowest since 1993.
source: https://archive.ph/R7dOj#selection-4869.0-4879.263
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The Bitcoin Scaling Dilemma with Shinobi.
- Scaling Bitcoin with covenants
- A path to Bitcoin upgrades
- Ossification vs scaling sovereignty
- Risks for Bitcoin developers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seOK8CujQQI
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
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https://void.cat/d/JKxyFvZiLpWttvcYR3eap3.webp

2024-02-19 20:39:24

Supply shock
Supply shock
Supply shock
Supply shock
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #supplyanddemand https://image.nostr.build/5eb99f8ff97c171ac3e270011a8fd6f916b3b96135854a7c56809b337779b60f.jpg

2024-02-17 18:30:25

The demand for Bitcoin is outpacing every other ETF, and it’s the only one with a fixed supply. You do the math!
It is just freaking basic math anon!
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #supply&demand https://image.nostr.build/d15e1994bddafdafe43706e4e2d3813a3deaf7539ab3ecec4bc62fd025bf56df.jpg

2024-02-12 22:07:05

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"How it will play out:
1. Bitcoin Halving in 67 days; Bitcoin halving sparks anticipation and price speculation.
2. BTC surpasses the market cap of gold; Bitcoin's market cap surpasses gold, signaling a significant milestone.
3. Game theory between countries starts; Strategic game theory dynamics emerge among nations regarding Bitcoin.
4. Every Central Bank starts to print; Central banks resort to increased money printing, potentially fueling inflation fears.
5. BTC gets seized on exchanges and ETFs; Regulatory scrutiny intensifies, leading to the seizure of Bitcoin on exchanges and ETFs.
6. Self-custody becomes illegal; Authorities impose restrictions on the self-custody of cryptocurrencies.
7. CBDC gets introduced; Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are introduced, challenging Bitcoin's decentralized nature.
8. Plebs move to countries that allow BTC; Individuals seek residency in countries with favorable Bitcoin regulations.
9. Woke people lose trust in the CBDCs; Growing disillusionment with CBDCs among informed individuals.
10. BTC becomes global money; Bitcoin gains broader acceptance as a global medium of exchange and store of value."
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before I kick off with today's Weekly Recap I start with a great quote by Dr. Jeff Ross:
"I’m not sure who needs to hear this today, but the Bitcoin bull market hasn’t even started yet.
Instead of fixating on price, I suggest the following:
- Head down
- Work hard
- Stack sats (while they’re still super cheap)"
➡️Bitcoin Market Cap is now the 10th largest asset in the world by market capitalization, surpassing giants such as JPMorgan, Berkshire Hathaway, Tesla, and Visa.
➡️Wall Street ETFs are buying 12.5x more Bitcoin per day than the network can produce, increasing the demand and price. Hello, supply shock!
➡️Bitcoin ETF inflows are accelerating and so is the price of Bitcoin. Today ETF inflows broke $500m in one day. Meanwhile, retail is completely sidelined. Wait before the FOMO really kicks in. (picture 4)
➡️BlackRock now holds $4.1 billion worth of Bitcoin.
The 9 new Bitcoin ETFs now hold more than $10 BILLION in assets.
Ergo: Wall Street loves Bitcoin.
"Proof: There’s been over 5500 ETF launches in history.
NEVER before has an ETF reached $3 Billion AUM in less than 30 days… until now.
Both Blackrock and Fidelity’s Bitcoin spot ETFs have just done it."
➡️"Bitcoin has had a great run of +20% in 18 days. What happens next? This type of rally has happened 440+ times in the past 9 years.
-> continued up 88% of the time
-> typical gain +20% => $60k
-> only 6-12% downside historically.
So a non-trivial possibility of a new ATH in perhaps 30 days?" -Timothy Peterson
➡️92.75% of the Bitcoin circulating supply is now in profit.
Values above 95% have historically indicated local tops, and the last time this threshold was reached was during November 2021's all-time high of $69K.
➡️"This is what Bitcoin looks like for the citizens of Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, Argentina, Lebanon, and Pakistan.
A combined population of 725 MILLION people.
Nigeria and Argentina prices more than doubled since I posted this 2 months ago."
https://twitter.com/TheRealTahinis/status/1756709193904439560
➡️Less than 10,000 blocks remain until the Bitcoin halving. The halving is scheduled for April 2023.
"There is an absolutely relentless pursuit for blocks with a block subsidy of 6.25 BTC.
In a couple of months, miners will be forced to only reward themselves with a subsidy of 3.125 BTC.
Bitcoin is in high demand, and it's about to get even more scarce." - Joe Burnett
➡️79.26% of Bitcoin haven't changed hands in the last 6 months.
➡️Americans could have saved at least $74 billion in 2022 by using cryptocurrency payment systems instead of credit cards, according to Coinbase’s “State of Crypto” report.
➡️On the 10th of February, Ark became the third Bitcoin ETF to pass $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings.
➡️ World's largest asset manager BlackRock says Bitcoin is creating a "global internet of value."
➡️Bitcoin hashrate at a new all-time high! (picture 3
➡️The world’s largest Bitcoin mine begins construction in Texas.
Riot's Corsicana Facility will harness an impressive one gigawatt of electricity. The project will cost an estimated $333,000,000.
More miner news:
➡️America’s first nuclear-powered Bitcoin computer mine is online at the 2.5 gigawatt Susquehanna power plant in Pennsylvania.
Located at the 2.5 GW nuclear energy facility in the PJM interconnection is Nautilus Cryptomine, a Bitcoin mining facility jointly owned by
TeraWulf and Talen Energy.
- 16,000
Bitcoin machines
- 1,900,000,000,000,000,000x hashes per second at total capacity.
More miner news, now from Africa:
https://twitter.com/GridlessCompute/status/1756164755398578542
Nice drone shots of a hydropower station in Kenya by Gridless.
More miner news:
"Bitcoin mining now has lower emission intensity than any other industry.
It is literally the "Roger Bannister" of emission reduction, showing other industries that what was once thought impossible is possible.
full story and source data": - Daniel Batten
https://www.batcoinz.com/p/issue-001-the-narrative-is-shifting
➡️ Bitcoin whales are on the move as 1K-10K BTC wallets hit the highest since Nov '22 (1,958), while 100-1K BTC wallets see a new low (13,735). Bitcoin
whales have acquired 140K BTC ($6.16B) in the last three weeks.
➡️On the 6th of February: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is now among the Top 5 ETFs in year-to-date flows, indicating that it has attracted more cash than 99.98% of ETF
➡️ Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy just bought another 850 Bitcoin worth $37.2m and now holds 190.000BTC.
The company is now at a $3,500,000,000 unrealized profit.
➡️El Salvador's Bitcoin portfolio is in the green with ~$21 million in gains.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and PPI. In Europe, it’s the UK CPI, GDP, labor market data, and the German ZEW. In Asia, we have the Australian labor market report, India CPI, and Japanese GDP
👉🏽"The combined revenue of the 4 largest US companies hit a record $1.5 trillion over last 12 months...
Amazon: $575 billion
Apple: $386 billion
Google: $307 billion
Microsoft: $228 billion
That's larger than the GDP of all but 14 countries." - TKL
👉🏽"Nvidia, NVDA, is now the 4th most valuable public company in the world, worth $1.84 trillion.
Today, Nvidia's market cap passed both Google and Amazon for the first time in history.
Since January 1st, Nvidia has officially added $650 BILLION in market cap.
That's more than the entire value of Tesla in less than 6 weeks." - TKL
🏦Banks:
Last week I mentioned that the FED announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11.
Last week we witnessed how New York Community Bank stock, NYCB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, fell 40% after earnings.
"On the 6th of February New York Community Bank stock NYSB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, crashed another 25%.
The stock is now down a massive 61% in 2024 to its lowest level since June 2000.
Currently, roughly 40% of NYCB's assets are not under FDIC insurance.
The stock's decline accelerated after the bank posted an unexpected $260 million loss in Q4 2023." - TKL
Please read the bit on commercial real estate in last week's Weekly Recap and... check out the picture. (picture 1)
US Regional Bank Stocks 1 Month Into 2024:
1. NY Community Bank, NYCB: -60%
2. Valley National Bank, VLY: -25%
3. Metropolitan Bank, MCB: -15%
4. HarborOne, HONE: -14%
5. Comerica Bank, CMA: -13%
6. Zions Bank, ZION: -12%
7. Western Alliance, WAL: -11%
8. Citizens Financial, CFG: -6%
9. KeyCorp, KEY: -5%
Regional bank worries resurfaced as New York Community Bank which acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, cut their dividend by 70%.
These are the same banks that hold nearly 70% of commercial real estate loans.
Just 10 months ago, the regional bank crisis "ended." - TKL
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Another reason there's so much pressure for rate cuts:
Debt servicing costs on US debt have skyrocketed since the pandemic.
Servicing costs have gone from ~1.5% of GDP to nearly 3.0% of GDP since 2020.
According to US projections, debt servicing costs are set to rise by 3.5%.
For years, low-interest rates meant deficit spending was fairly "cheap."
Now, we are paying for years of historically low-interest rates.
The era of "free" money is over." - TKL
Total debt +$31BN today to a record high of $34.229 Trillion.
+$229 Billion since Jan 1
+$2.8 trillion in the past year.
$35 trillion by June.
BTC is worth less than 3% of the US national debt. Humanity holds ~37x more wealth in debt from a bankrupt government than in the world’s best money. we are so early!
"It took 17 years for the US to add $3.4 trillion of credit card debt, but less than 4 years for it to add another $340 billion.
Price increases are outpacing wage gains, and people are resorting to piling on credit card debt to pick up the difference."
(picture 2)
“The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy… We're borrowing from future generations,” says Fed chief Jerome Powell.
👉🏽Combine the above with the following statement:
The US Office of Management and Budget has said they see a deficit at 5%+ of GDP through 2033.
This means that a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion is expected in 2024.
By 2033, projections show that deficit spending will equal 6.9% of GDP.
There have only been 5 times in US history where deficit spending hit 6.5%+.
In 2033, this would imply an annual budget deficit of $2.7 trillion.
I don't want to be doom & gloom, but can anyone tell me how this can end well?
The debt is growing at ~10% per tear, plus a debasing currency, plus global competition intensifying.
👉🏽"While the rest of the world battles inflation, China is battling DEFLATION.
China's CPI just fell by 0.8% with prices suffering their biggest drop since the global recession in 2009.
This also marked the 4th consecutive monthly decline in China's CPI.
Weak consumer demand has been weighing on prices with prices of many food items falling by double-digit percentages.
The price of pork plunged by 17% and vegetable prices slid nearly 12%.
The economic slowdown continues." TKL
👉🏽Everyone could have seen this a mile away. Many choose not to look:
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1756343413253812722
More news on the sick man of Europe, Germany.
Its days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end. As pol paralysis grips Berlin, the energy crisis was the final blow for a growing number of manufacturers. German comps pay some of the highest electricity prices in the EU. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-10/why-germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end
The risk of recession has increased significantly. Economists polled by BBG see the probability of a recession happening over the next 12 months at 75%.
"While US growth continues to positively surprise, the Eurozone goes in the opposite direction. But hey, let’s add some more regulations in Europe and decrease working time to four days per week." - Michael Arouet
(picture 5)
This chart ends in 2000, but I believe what it illustrates remains true today.
https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours
👉🏽https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1757076757977387164
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnBuIla9nGU&t=3s
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/XrWehT4qzhVakdCkrripE.webp
https://void.cat/d/6eHcx5CPLAs3oTDFdAGLaR.webp
https://void.cat/d/DCcR6jm9d14qqW9f5w4tTN.webp
https://void.cat/d/46TfTZwG7g7okinjWzdKWc.webp
https://void.cat/d/Wf2Sc15ar4Y144Pzpinthj.webp
https://void.cat/d/XjGmqkhXSrPeMaR8y996e6.webp

2024-02-06 06:30:10

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"FED Chair, Jerome Powell on the US national debt:
• We’re on an unsustainable path
• Debt is growing faster than the economy
• We’re borrowing from future generations
Projected debt in 30 years: $144 Trillion"
We need Bitcoin now more than ever!
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️ Satoshi Act Fund aids in introducing pro-Bitcoin legislation in Tennessee, marking the fifth state this year so far. The bill safeguards the rights to custody, mine, and run a node.
The Governor of Texas announced, “We want to be the home of innovation and Bitcoin is the cutting edge of innovation”.
➡️ Ark Invest’s “Big Ideas 2024 research report visualizes the long-term returns of buying and holding Bitcoin.
“Historically, investors who bought and held bitcoin for at least 5 years have profited, no matter when they made their purchases.” Next to that according to ArkInvest’s “Big Ideas 2024” report, the price of 1 Bitcoin is projected to reach $2.3 million if 19.4% of the $250 trillion global investable asset base is allocated to Bitcoin.
➡️All-Time High for Bitcoin Network Difficulty & New Record Bitcoin Hashrate! 550,000,000,000,000,000,000x per second
➡️A report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals Bitcoin mining uses 0.6-2.3% of US electricity, and 0.2-0.9% globally.
2% to secure the world's next reserve currency. Less than 1% for powering the world with the only truly free, sound version of money while wasting over 1% on appliances like TVs on standby... I'd call that good numbers (picture 1)
➡️BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT now has +$3.1 BILLION Bitcoin in just 3 weeks since launch. They currently hold >72,466 BTC.
➡️Over the last decade, Bitcoin has ridden on the back of global liquidity as the world's M2 money supply increased from $56 trillion in 2014 to $92 trillion today. And the printing will only continue, more on that in the segment below (macro-economics)
(picture 3)
➡️Cathie Wood's ARK says optimal Bitcoin allocation for portfolios is 19.4%.
Up 3x from 6.2% in 2022.
➡️The Biden Administration has issued an "emergency" data collection initiative to identify the electricity usage of the Bitcoin mining industry in America
Miners who do not comply are threatened with fines of up to $10,633 for EACH DAY they do not respond
This is the type of stuff you would expect in countries like Iran, North Korea, and China. Countries that would not allow any progress outside what the state deems within its plans for the people. I am sure the EU will follow suit. Unfortunately.
➡️UK police have seized £1.4 BILLIONBitcoin during an attempt to launder proceeds of a £5b investment fraud carried out in China.
➡️Milei strategically removes Bitcoin taxes from the "Ley Ómnibus" reform, aiming for swift approval.
The bill initially demanded the declaration of undeclared assets, including cryptocurrencies.
In his first 50 days as president, this man has:
👉🏽Fired 50,000 government employees
👉🏽Deregulated legal tender laws
👉🏽Abolished taxes on Bitcoin
But sure, Javier Milei is "controlled opposition."
➡️Someone just moved 35,049 Bitcoin worth $1.5 billion for a transaction fee of $3.21.
➡️According to Tether's latest Q4 attestation, the company holds $2.8 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
➡️REKT! Great post and great chart for everyone who is considering enjoying the pump & dumps in the world of altcoins. Please reconsider.
The point of this post is that these coins weren't considered shitcoins by most people, they were contenders to be the next big thing. Almost all shitcoins will trend toward zero, especially as priced in Bitcoin.
https://twitter.com/duczko/status/1752574281610051800
➡️Entities holding at least 1K Bitcoin are up 4.50% over the past two weeks.
➡️Putting it in perspective.
The 9 New ETFs hold more Bitcoin than Tether, Tesla, Block and all the of the Public Miners combined.
Soon they eclipse MSTR. Later GBTC. Regarding GBTC, the dumping of GBTC by FTX is over and bitcoin ETFs see a big whoosh of net inflows.
➡️Education will be the key to resisting CBDCs. Great thread by Daniel Batten:
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1752262434264604844
➡️BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF becomes first to break $2b in assets and now holds more than 52,000.
➡️https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1752075827804516392
Please also read Samson Mow's explanation Tuur is referring to.
Another great explanation by Samson...
➡️UTXO Management for Dummies: If everyone pays you in quarters you’ll have to lug around a big heavy bag. It’ll also cost you more time to spend as you have to count quarters when paying. So ask for $20s or $100s as payment, or change your quarters into bills from time to time.
Now I hear you say...wtf is a UTXO?
A UTXO stands for unspent transaction output. Don’t worry about those unnecessarily complicated words. Just use “UTXO” and understand the concept of what it is…
If you want to learn/study the topic: https://armantheparman.com/utxo/
➡️ "CBDC Is a calamity for human and civil rights. Bitcoin gives you better protection than cash. It also gives you protection from inflation and all of the other hazards that come along with FIAT currencies," says US Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
➡️"One of China's largest fund managers, Harvest, to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong after the Securities Commission said it is ready to accept applications.
China coming to the party!" - Bitcoin Archive
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
What can you expect this week in the traditional financial market?
Main highlight ahead:
In the US, we have the service sector ISM report and the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey. In Europe, the focus will be on German industrial production, the February Sentix survey of investor sentiment, and the latest ECB bulletin. In Asia, we have China CPI and Japan earnings data, along with central bank meetings in India and Australia.
👉🏽Meta just gained $200 billion in market cap.
It's the biggest one-day gain in stock market history. CEO Mark Zuckerberg stands to receive a payout of ~$700 Million a year from Meta's first-ever dividend which was announced today - Bloomberg
🏦Banks:
Last week I mentioned that the FED announced that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11.
"This week we witnessed how New York Community Bank stock, NYCB, the bank that acquired the collapsed Signature Bank, fell 40% after earnings.
The bank announced they will cut their dividend by 70% to meet regulatory requirements.
They also reported a 4th quarter LOSS of $260 million while expectations were for a GAIN of that size.
This comes just a few weeks before the Fed's emergency loan program is set to expire. Many of these small banks hold tons of exposure to commercial real estate loans.
70% of all CRE loans in the US are held by small banks.
If CRE project defaults continue, we could see more pressure on banks." - TKL
Are (small) banks still feeling the pain? I guess so...why? What is predominantly in their (NYCB) loan portfolio? It's the same thing that's in basically every bank portfolio - a large % of CRE & USTs? And it is not only in the US.
Shares of Japanese bank Aozora are collapsing. The stock's on the steepest 2-day drop since it became a public company.
Why? The Bank reported massive exposure to US commercial real estate.
(picture 4)
Regarding CRE. "Another sign the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) crisis is worse than we thought?
The Xerox building in Washington DC just sold for $25 million.
It was last purchased for $145 million just over a decade ago, in 2011.
This reflects an 83% LOSS on the 19-story office building.
The buyer of the property plans to convert it to an apartment building."
"44% of office loans carry outstanding loan balances higher than the property value and are at risk of default according to the NBER."
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (1/31/24):
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for 4th straight meeting
2. The Fed does not expect rate cuts until "greater confidence" inflation is moving to 2%
3. "Highly attentive" to inflation risks with economic uncertainty
4. Job gains have moderated but remain strong
5. Upcoming policy will be based on incoming data
6. Fed sees evolving outlook while balancing risks.
This seems to be a different tone than their December meeting.
Particularly, the new statement about not expecting rate cuts until "greater confidence" about inflation."- TKL
It seems like they are backtracking. The FED is really caught between a rock and a hard place of its own making.
1. election year pressure to cut rates.
2. Govt cost of debt increasing, pressuring rate cuts. (the banks and national budget, and other parts of the indebted economy)
3. The FED knows inflation still has the potential to tick up.
👉🏽The U.S. added a blowout of 353,000 jobs in January, far above the 185,000 expected.
November and December growth were also revised up substantially. BUT... it seems like all "jobs" added in the past year have been part-time workers.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000
Especially if you read the following bit:
Latest List of Layoffs Over Last 3 Months:
1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
3. Spotify: 17% of workforce
4. Levi's: 15% of workforce
5. Zerox: 15% of workforce
6. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
7. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
8. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
9. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
10. eBay: 9% of workforce
11. PayPal: 9% of workforce
12. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
13. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
14. Macy's: 4% of workforce
15. Blackrock: 3% of the workforce
16. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
17. UPS: 12,000 employees
18. Deutsche Bank: 3,500 employees
19. Pixar: 1,300 employees
20. Salesforce: 700 employees
21. American Airlines: 650 employees
January 2024 saw a total of 82,000 layoffs, the second-worst January since 2009. Meanwhile, the US just reported that 353,000 jobs were created in January.
The jobs at all of these companies seeing layoffs tend to be full-time, high-pay, high-benefit jobs. The jobs number from yesterday includes many more part-time, lower pay, smaller benefit jobs than the ones mentioned above that have been lost.
If you lose your full-time job and have to take 2 or 3 part-time jobs to keep paying your mortgage, the current administration counts that as job growth.
That's how messed up the system is right now.
Just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1753700241465835732
👉🏽"BTC has allowed anyone to cut to the front of the “fiat currency Cantillon Effect benefit line”. - yes!!
Please read both tweets: https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1753854390367039907
To make it extra 'special': "10% of the world‘s population own 75% of all wealth, get 50% of all income and account for nearly half of all CO2 emissions.
source IMF: (picture 5)
👉🏽Germany: Retail sales have fallen by 4.4% in Dec YoY. This means that even Christmas sales fell through. Germans have gone on a buyers' strike since the outbreak of inflation and have even cut back on gifts for children during the Christmas season. This also explains why Germany has some of the toughest competition in the retail sector and the lowest profit margins there." Zschaepitz
Basically, all categories are down except gas stations and clothing & textiles. Hello, buyers strike!
German inflation slows to 2.9% in January from 3.7% in December, the lowest level since June 2021. Core CPI slows to 3.4% in Jan from 3.5% in Dec, lowest level June 2022. Energy in deflation, Energy prices dropped -2.8% YoY, while Food CPI slowed to 3.8% from 4.5% in Dec.
👉🏽 The two largest economies in Africa are under huge financial strain.
On the 30th of January, Nigeria de facto devalued the naira by ~30% (after another ~30% devaluation in June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound ~50% weaker in the black market. The Naira has moved from ~470 vs the USD in June last year to now at 1452 as of the 1st of February.
Bitcoin could step in as an economic life raft. It offers a robust alternative to national currencies prone to devaluation, providing a measure of financial sovereignty to individuals.
I will quote Alex Gladstein on this topic:
"In neither case did the government ask the people for permission to dramatically reduce their wages, purchasing power, or living standards.
Now hundreds of millions will suffer
Currency devaluation is a crime against humanity."
https://twitter.com/DSBatten/status/1753171731521691872
👉🏽US Treasury Department cuts Jan-Mar borrowing estimate to $760 billion from $816 billion and estimates $202 billion net borrowing for Apr-Jun, per Bloomberg.
Are they smoking crack?
The Treasury has issued $134BN in debt in the past 4 weeks but expects to issue $202BN in all of Q2.
"if anyone expects any econ data in the election 2024 year to be i) accurate or ii) make any sense, you will be severely disappointed."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1753804440166125702
"We're getting to the point now where the interest expense on the debt is so high that it's going to eat up our ability to basically service the next generation"
"I'm not even sure about the current one"
"We are in deep trouble"
"By 2027, the interest expense alone on the debt eats all healthcare spending"
"By 2047, it eats all discretionary spending"
👉🏽"A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year.
Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion.
This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024.
That's nearly a third of all outstanding US federal debt right now.
All the while the Fed is expected to start cutting rates, making buying these bonds less attractive.
One of the biggest issues with a higher for the longer environment is US debt.
Debt service costs for the US government have more than doubled since the Fed started raising rates."
Yesterday Fed Chair Powell said it best himself:
Scott Pelley (60 Minutes): “Is the national debt a danger to the economy in your view?”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the US national debt:
• We’re on an unsustainable path
• Debt is growing faster than the economy
• We’re borrowing from future generations
Projected debt in 30 years: $144 Trillion"
We need Bitcoin now more than ever.
"Under current fiscal policies, the Debt to GDP ratio in the US is projected to hit 200% within 20 years.
Before 2020, Debt to GDP in the US was ~100% and before 2008 it was ~60%.
Current estimates show the US hitting $50 trillion in total debt by 2033.
This means that the US will add $218 million in debt EVERY HOUR until 2033.
Just imagine what would happen if the Fed doesn't in fact achieve a soft landing."- TKL
This is unsustainable.
👉🏽Nearly 30% of ALL stocks in China have trading stopped as the CSI 1000 index falls 8%. Healty world economy, right?
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyMKjrNxaGo
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/KMeCzUjTw546VNFZXp2sfH.webp
https://void.cat/d/6zWM9muJ5vrYTZpZLiRcC2.webp
https://void.cat/d/5v2jTLuun4MXh4NZptnWBW.webp
https://void.cat/d/DLzsyo9n6Gf7bJXxAy5QmC.webp
https://void.cat/d/PTDQ1a9iNcESRCaZqrtyP6.webp

2024-01-31 22:07:08

- reply

🙏🏽⚡️

2024-01-31 20:51:28

At the Bitcoin conference 23’in Amsterdam, I had the pleasure of having a chat with an old chap called Bert. It was his second time at the conference. He had a spot at the expo area with his mobile espresso bar.
I showed him the beauty of Bitcoin and insisted on paying for a coffee with Bitcoin.
After that, a quick demonstration of Breeze and he received his first 'coffee' sats.
Now fast forward to the beginning of 2024.
I met him in Amsterdam, at his 'normal' spot at the entrance of the Vondelpark, near Vondelchurch.
https://btcmap.org/merchant/node:11380255884
I helped him to set up Breeze - items and had a nice chai latte.
Unfortunately, people didn't know that you can pay for your coffee with Bitcoin/sats. No problem, after our appointment, I sent him some stickers. Look at the result.
So please plebs...if you are visiting Amsterdam. Check out the Vondelpark ,and whilst doing that, get yourself a coffee at First Coffee and drop some sats.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #🍊💊 #orangepilled https://image.nostr.build/4ad08d47b8530ac7b1cc17693c48c1d3c4d9ae7ab08e96eda8cce580bdc8651c.jpg https://image.nostr.build/08ef89aa572066fbc524bf1adb937a8ef3823fb7603a4971a8ef39c8b3a4afb7.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b9311e4317e1039cc54b9cba2ab22afefed7fc486e180520d70df99d398018c5.jpg https://image.nostr.build/99b2e361d58f1e71de3c2f62b7df37b9a03a42827134421e31097c856da0ca9c.jpg

2024-01-31 06:39:51

👉🏽 US interest payments just passed 1 Trillion dollars. (First picture)
Although some financial influencers did mention that the US economy is strong and thriving based on the Q4 GDP report they are missing or leaving one tiny part out of that same report.
Annualized interest on the federal debt now exceeds $1 trillion and is projected to reach $3 trillion, annualized rate, by Q4 2030 - INSANE and UNSUSTAINABLE.
Even if you adjust for inflation and put everything in real terms (chained 2017 dollars), interest is still going to skyrocket with the current trends.
Now on that chart... It assumes steady growth rates for gov't expenditures, GDP, price indices, etc. - the line is rising rapidly because of the size of the debt and the cost to service it along with the institutionalization of multi-trillion-dollar deficits in the absence of either war or recession...
Ergo: This number goes up because of refinancing debt. Most of this was with <1% rates and is now >5%. That's a huge increase and the government can't stop that. Debt rolls over anyway. If no one wants them, the government buys its bonds which causes inflation.
Either 1) rates will go back down to 0% in some fashion which will result in a huge slowdown in growth or deflation, or
2) the government will be forced to cut spending/raise taxes by markets. When was the last time the government cut spending?
There is another option, the option that macroeconomist Luke Gromen already mentioned several times last couple of months/ years.
3) We will have a massive inflationary cycle where inflation makes all those numbers trivial.
Now for the so-called fin fluencers, I have one question. An increase in real GDP of $1.5 trillion with an increase of public debt of more than $2 trillion is that a strong economy?
This so-called "public stimulus" always means more debt, which in turn means more taxes, lower growth, weaker real wages for families, as well as a tougher environment for small businesses. Right?
The above is only focused on the US.
Below you will find a picture of the world debt. (Second slide)
No read the above segment again and tell me why it isn't a good thing to hold a % of your portfolio in Bitcoin.
👉🏽More on the debt part:
"For anyone who's still counting:
The US government borrowed $47 billion of debt on the 28the of January alone.
Since the debt ceiling crisis "ended" in June 2023, total US debt is up ~$3 trillion.
Since October 1st, the US government has borrowed ~$10 billion PER DAY.
The worst part?
For the next 340 days, the US debt ceiling is effectively uncapped.
If we keep borrowing at current rates, we could see over $37 trillion of federal debt this year." - TKL
So tell me why it isn’t a good thing to hold a % of your portfolio in Bitcoin.
Well if you read this on Nostr.. probably you are already 100% in Bitcoin😁🤣🧡
The above is a segment out of my latest Weekly Recap, for more:
https://njump.me/nevent1qqszqyewvge73wexsd43zf474hkgdeul520uu694h5kelnpn63furpqzyq78msk9slhvupg0h3jcpxckp8geyplcyhwhva2tnyz7nj5q2ep2slzvk7y
Credit picture: TheBTCtherapist
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #worldofdebt #usdebt https://image.nostr.build/f66c0ccb087884d5d80d705d8b95ede5b3d4b560d3c73a770afc9ee4513fef82.png https://image.nostr.build/e00824ec7e36d1be33506604e759c02e8e1c579727469145862c60a2af106b0c.png https://image.nostr.build/fe4833ba7169f941abb1bd0b9103de71c4f5f9c4e90bfb4d76d5d2af32c94f44.png

2024-01-29 20:29:06

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Our revels now are ended.
This our money, as I foretold you,
Was all numbers, and has melted into air, into thin air:
And, like the baseless fabric of this economy,
The cloud-capp'd towers, the gorgeous palaces, the £1m+ ex-council flats, the great s&p itself,
Yea, all which it inherits, shall dissolve
And, as your insubstantial pension fades, leave not a rack behind.
It is such stuff as dreams are made on, and our little wealth
It ended with a crash." - The ShakespeareanApe
"If you want a market that only goes up (modestly), try stocks.
If you want the potential for outsized returns alongside occasional big drawdowns, try Bitcoin.
If you want to light money on fire, try altcoins."- Joe Carlasare
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings now valued over $2.18 billion, and hold 52.025BTC.
➡️Bitcoin whales accumulate 76K Bitcoin ($3B) since the beginning of the year.
➡️Google is the biggest advertising network in the world.
+2x bigger than the second biggest ad network Meta (Facebook/IG).
From today on Bitcoin ETFs can start advertising on Google.
BlackRock & VanEck are now advertising Spot Bitcoin ETFs on Google following a new policy update.
➡️After 11 trading days, the 9 new spot Bitcoin ETFs bought ~140,000 BTC worth USD 6 Billion. This excludes GBTC (conversion w/ outflows).
Grayscale outflows of $5b have been absorbed by other Bitcoin ETFs taking in $5.8b.
$759m Net Bitcoin ETF inflows.
➡️Local news station in Georgia reports a new Bitcoin mine could help lower energy bills and property taxes for the entire city of Sandersville.
➡️The fourth Bitcoin halving is expected to occur on April 20th, 2024, at block height 840,000. The block reward will be halved from 6.15 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
➡️On the 26th of January BlackRock held a webinar to educate financial advisors on their Bitcoin ETF and "what makes this a pivotal moment for investors".
That wasn't something I had on my 2024 Bitcoin bingo card.
➡️"Bitcoin has the same number of users as the Internet had in 1997.
We are just getting started."
(picture 1)
➡️"The 9 new Bitcoin ETFs have bought 102,613 BTC in just 7 days of trading.
It took MicroStrategy ~300 days to buy +100K Bitcoin."
➡️On the 24th of January the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) became the first U.S. bitcoin ETF to publish the bitcoin addresses of its holdings.
"Now anyone can verify BITB's holdings and flows directly on the blockchain. Onchain transparency is core to Bitcoin's ethos."
Although I think this is a great thing, I do have a couple of questions and remarks.
1. On a positive note, this will be the standard. Try doing this with gold. That's not possible. There is $11 Trillion in physical gold chasing 250 Trillion dollars in paper gold because the is no transparency to the asset. It is hoarded, controlled, and monitored in secret by 200 governments on the planet.
2. While our current system is based on fraction reserve you now actually have proof of reserve. A real-time balance check of a limited supply asset. This has never been done before in human history. A step closer to a more transparent financial future.
3. This address will be held (custodian) by Coinbase. Not sure if multi-signature is safer in this instance, I don't have the technical knowledge to provide you with the correct answer. This all depends on the parties & processes involved. What I do know is that not only the Bitwise ETF but almost every ETF can be confiscated by the government.
4. What if people will send sats to that address? Does it get added to the NAV of the ETF holders?
5. Since revealing their Bitcoin address, the Bitwise ETF address has received 10 "donations" totaling 268,002 satoshis (~$107). Numerous tips have been in denominations of 42069 and 6969 sats.
If you want to learn more about the various Bitcoin addresses, here is a great article: https://unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-address-types-compared/
➡️Also on the 24th: BlackRock & Fidelity now hold more than $3.2b Bitcoin. They're buying +$400m Bitcoin every day on average.
➡️As you might know or feel the same way as me, Bitcoiners care about truth and proof of work.
Recently a new research from the United Nations University came out.
Bitcoin Policy Institute, in particle Margot Paez, uncovered critical shortcomings in that study as it is fundamentally flawed.
https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/the-united-nations-latest-study-on-bitcoin-mining-is-fundamentally-flawed
"In short, the study falls short of the scientific thoroughness expected in research, rendering it unsuitable as a basis for policymaking. ‍
‍
Our analysis uncovered three critical flaws in the paper.
‍1. Selective Bias
The study's literature review is based on sources that have been discredited and fail to consider newer research showcasing Bitcoin mining's potential to support grid reliability and advance the shift to renewable energy.
1. Data Misapplication
The authors project past data onto future trends without yearly updates or recognition of discontinued data sources like the CBECI.
1. Flawed Methodologies
Methodologies used are inappropriate for demand-side analysis, leading to unfounded assertions about bitcoin mining's impact on developing economies and social justice."
Read the full report here: https://assets-global.website-files.com/627aa615676bdd1d47ec97d4/65b004ac744cd4c6abb8934e_UN%20Paper%20FINAL%20.pdf
This report deserves way more coverage! On the same day, BPI drops a new scholarship from Margot, and Cornell announces their Bitcoin program. "Patterns tell stories and falsehood flies, and the truth comes limping after it!"
➡️https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1749825855449121092
The S-curve nature of the Bitcoin network remains on track. "Bitcoin's network is growing in line with a standard power regression curve". Jurien Timmer - Dir. of Global Macro Fidelity.
Hello network effects, just zoom out for a bit.
➡️"Twice as much Bitcoin is LOST as is currently controlled by institutions and governments.
Only a tiny fraction of the world owns Bitcoin, and after the halving in April, only 1.3125/21M BTC will be left to be mined."
This asset will get more and more scarce until every other currency is phased out. With the current world population, only 27% of the planet (max) could have 0.01BTC if it was evenly distributed and all BTC were mined/ available. The Bitcoin ETFs may accelerate the scarcity aspect (once the GBTC selling is exhausted).
It might make sense to get some, just in case it catches on. (foto)
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽The S&P 500 has officially hit 4,900 for the first time in history.
This puts the index up another 3.5% YTD and 18.5% since October 27th, 2023.
In roughly 3 months, the S&P 500 has doubled the average ANNUAL returnSerious disconnect between the traditional financial markets and the economy. Unfortunately, the price of assets does not necessarily reflect the health of a business.
We were told that the Fed has been tightening the monetary policy. Meanwhile, the monetary base has expanded by $500 BILLION from February 2023.
Two companies, Apple and Microsoft have 6 trillion in combined market cap.
Top 10 companies: $14.6T.
Just 5.5 years ago in 2018, AAPL reached a $1 trillion market cap for the first time.
It has tripled in valuation since then and MSFT more so.
We're witness to the largest market cap expansion in history. Ask yourself, does a market cap expansion of this magnitude signal that this is a healthy market?
For the stock market and the financial system liquidity matters and is one of the main fuels. Make no mistake this is also valid for Bitcoin. Liquidity matters.
"Owning an SP500 fund is no different from holding a tech ETF.
The top 7 components are all tech companies and represent 26% of its holdings.
SPX should no longer be viewed as a diversification instrument. It’s no longer spreading risk across 500 companies to protect you."
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 The FED announces that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11. The Fed has raised interest rates on its Bank Term Funding Program, the emergency lending program created to support regional banks.
Rate increases are effective immediately, but the Fed will be ending the program on March 11th.
Rates on new loans will be no lower than the rate on reserve balances. Let's see which financial institutions will blow up next then!
Do you need an explanation of the above?
https://twitter.com/Invst_Informant/status/1748116617618235527
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 US interest payments just passed 1 Trillion dollars. (foto)
Although some financial influencers did mention that the US economy is strong and thriving based on the Q4 GDP report they are missing or leaving one tiny part out of that same report.
Annualized interest on the federal debt now exceeds $1 trillion and is projected to reach $3 trillion, annualized rate, by Q4 2030 - INSANE and UNSUSTAINABLE.
Even if you adjust for inflation and put everything in real terms (chained 2017 dollars), interest is still going to skyrocket with the current trends
Now on that chart... It assumes steady growth rates for gov't expenditures, GDP, price indices, etc. - the line is rising rapidly because of the size of the debt and the cost to service it along with the institutionalization of multi-trillion-dollar deficits in the absence of either war or recession...
Ergo: This number goes up because of refinancing debt. Most of this was with <1% rates and is now >5%. That's a huge increase and the government can't stop that. Debt rolls over anyway. If no one wants them, the government buys its bonds which causes inflation. Either 1) rates will go back down to 0% in some fashion which will result in a huge slowdown in growth or deflation, or 2) the government will be forced to cut spending/raise taxes by markets. When was the last time the government cut spending?
There is another option, the option that macroeconomist Luke Gromen already mentioned several times last couple of months/ years. 3) We will have a massive inflationary cycle where inflation makes all those numbers trivial.
Now for the so-called fin fluencers, I have one question. An increase in real GDP of $1.5 trillion with an increase of public debt of more than $2 trillion is that a strong economy?
This so-called "public stimulus" always means more debt, which in turn means more taxes, lower growth, weaker real wages for families, as well as a tougher environment for small businesses. Right?
The above is only focused on the US.
Below you will find a picture of the world debt. (picture 2)
No read the above segment again and tell me why it isn't a good thing to hold a % of your portfolio in Bitcoin.
👉🏽More on the debt part:
"For anyone who's still counting:
The US government borrowed $47 billion of debt yesterday alone.
Since the debt ceiling crisis "ended" in June 2023, total US debt is up ~$3 trillion.
Since October 1st, the US government has borrowed ~$10 billion PER DAY.
The worst part?
For the next 340 days, the US debt ceiling is effectively uncapped.
If we keep borrowing at current rates, we could see over $37 trillion of federal debt this year." - TKL
(picture 3) credit TheBTCTherapist
👉🏽Job growth is structurally declining from the post-COVID peaks and is below the 2010-2019 average. Many other smaller components are in recessionary rates of change off their lows. Labor turns slowly with inertia until it is suddenly non-linear.
The following thread, click on the link, is worth your time. Excellent analysis.
"State-level unemployment rates were just released and they continue the string of bad news from the household survey.
It's been a while since I've refreshed this dataset and now my updated state-level Sahm-Rule indicator is really heating back up -
in fact, it's now above the threshold that marked the onset of every recession since the 1970s.
Through Dec, 20 states (i.e., 39% of the total in the chart below) had triggered the Sahm Rule, up sharply from just 3 states in September.
Nearly 25% of states had triggered the Sahm Rule last Nov when layoffs were picking up in Tech / Real Estate / Finance, but then those tapered off and the share pivoted sharply lower just below reaching the threshold for typical recessions.
More detail on the states that have deteriorated the most over the past year in the following thread" - Parker Ross
https://twitter.com/Econ_Parker/status/1749939545276141757
"Layoffs Announced Over Last 3 Months:
1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
3. Spotify: 17% of workforce
4. Levi's: 15% of workforce
5. Zerox: 15% of workforce
6. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
7. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
8. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
9. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
10. eBay: 9% of workforce
11. Business Insider: 8% of the workforce
12. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
13. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
14. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
15. Pixar: 1,300 employees
In 2022 and early 2023, we saw over 300,000 layoffs but they were almost entirely in tech companies.
Now, we are seeing layoffs across all industries as we kick off 2024."- TKL
👉🏽"China in 2024 So Far:
1. China's biggest brokerage restricts short-selling
2. China reportedly weighs a $280 billion stimulus package
3. China unexpectedly cuts reserve ratio for banks
4. China tells funds to stop shorting index futures
5. Hong Kong's stock index hits its lowest level in 2 decades
This all comes after a brutal 2023 for China's real estate sector.
While central banks have been raising rates, China has been cutting rates." TKL
Now you know the reason why I mentioned in last week's Weekly Recap: "China is contemplating issuing 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) in new debt through a special sovereign bond plan, marking only the fourth such sale in 26 years
The Middle Kingdom appears to be warming up the money printer."
On top of that today a Hong Kong court has ruled that Evergrande, China's largest real estate developer, must be liquidated.
The stock is now down another 20% today on the news and trading has been halted.
Evergrande is now considered the most indebted property developer in the world.
This comes at a time when China's HY Real Estate Index is down 85% in 2 years.
"China's holdings of US Treasuries continue to move in a straight line lower.
Their holdings of US Treasuries have declined by $300 billion since 2021.
Currently, China holds just under $800 billion of US Treasuries, levels not seen since 2009." - TKL
Oops!
👉🏽European Central Bank asks some lenders to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs — Reuters
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1750179011018309974
Hello European lenders!
The ECB tells me you’re reading these posts because you’re having trouble satisfying withdrawal demands.
Is that true, and which European bank is most at risk for that run? Or should we pull our deposits from all of your banks?
"European CBDC is the ultimate test to the European banking system where many banks have nothing to show for assets. Adopting CBDC is like asking banks to convert their cash into gold, but all their cash is long gone and exists only on their fake balance sheets."
The first rule of bank runs is you don't talk about bank runs.
(picture 4)
👉🏽The Bank of International Settlements is moving forward with the second phase of its CBDC and tokenization initiative.
Among the six programs in the initiative is Project Promissa, which aims to build a proof-of-concept platform for digital tokenized promissory notes
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
"Stranded: How Bitcoin is Saving Wasted Energy and Expanding Financial Freedom in Africa" by Alex Gladstein
This is Bitcoin, forget all the numbers go up...forget all the ETF talk, forget the halving...this is why Bitcoin:
For those who cannot see how Bitcoin can (and already is in pockets) transform the African continent's financial and energy system - this read lays it out beautifully.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/check-your-financial-privilege/stranded-bitcoin-saving-wasted-energy-in-africa
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/JLzb5mLLLQwf6nTFukkowT.webp
https://void.cat/d/7qenBZTgfwQDFysE6toCj3.webp
https://void.cat/d/7nviHnjco4ro7TJZqUW6Wd.webp
https://void.cat/d/J7fGMCz7HTucdus6ebA4RS.webp
https://void.cat/d/8p12CpWoWcJ3vcCZ64sDdW.webp

2024-01-29 20:10:08

- reply

Anytime!

2024-01-23 21:25:35

Pictures as discussed in the latest weekly recap:
#note1nsq…tqte
🧡🙏🏽 https://image.nostr.build/577174443ccd506e885e1363328d27478257f9900d133bafd1a526ca4f773295.jpg https://image.nostr.build/66254911b152279853107687d041c6c1c4f0f5b65115d5106cfafcf28919ad30.jpg https://image.nostr.build/f5b2679b5243c99dd20a513a8bf4ea1977b5d0191f56da93590cea58a8c98448.jpg https://image.nostr.build/85fb72dde9919da6b21d0d3f85197c90dda7f6c3c59cd7569b1f696b0551022c.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b7602951c5c643df79734d2143e8a926d585724b61f8d7e0c45c95d28abcba82.png

2024-01-23 21:22:01

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Imagine working 9-5 for 50 years then The Fed prints 40% of the total money supply and inflates away 20 years of your work."- BTCforFreedom
"Freedom of speech becomes impossible through the incentives of manipulated money!
(regardless of who benefits from said manipulation tells you)
#Bitcoin
Stealing productivity gains (via inflation) that should flow to society in the form of lower prices is the root cause." -Jeff Booth
"In the coming bull run, just about everybody in "crypto" will take credit and revel in the price of Bitcoin. They'll try to trick you by showing you this "other" coin that will do the same thing. This is called affinity scamming, and there are a lot of people who have positioned themselves over the last 4 years to do exactly that.
Save yourself the heartache and go Bitcoin only." - Jimmy Song
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️After seven weeks, Bitcoin falls below $40k and…. no one cares just keep stacking.
Now what is the reason why Bitcoin is dropping?
➡️According to reports from CoinDesk, it appears that up to 1/2 of the $2B in GBTC outflows were from FTX liquidating their 22 million shares.
In addition, FTX's sister hedge fund Alameda Research voluntarily drops its lawsuit against Grayscale Investments on the 22nd of january.
Ergo, blame FTX...again!
"It looks like the majority of Greyscale's (GBTC) outflows were not due to its higher fees, but rather due to a legal obligation of bankrupt FTX to liquidate its holdings.
I'll say it again. I suspect with most FTX redemptions out of the way, GBTC outflows will come to a trickle by the end of the month, retaining their kingship of the spot
Bitcoin ETF space by an enormous margin." -Oliver L. Velez
(picture 3)
➡️BlackRock & Fidelity now hold more than 64,000 Bitcoin worth ~$2.6b. They're buying $433m Bitcoin every day on average.
in total 9 Bitcoin ETFs now hold +95,000 Bitcoin worth ~$4 Billion.
Bitcoin ETFs had $17.2b in trading volume in just 6 days.
➡️Bitcoin hits new sustainable energy high of 54.5%, the highest of any global industry:
"Sustainable energy use for Bitcoin (BTC) mining reached an all-time high of 54.5% in 2023, a 3.6% increase throughout the calendar year.
The analysis, conducted by The Bitcoin ESG Forecast, compared Bitcoin’s sustainable energy mix to other industries using publicly available data over the past four years. Furthermore, the industry has made notable progress in increasing its reliance on sustainable energy sources, surpassing other global sectors."
The results indicate that Bitcoin mining currently ranks as the largest consumer of sustainable energy among subsectors. (picture 2)
➡️https://twitter.com/LNMarkets/status/1749387083620257990
LN Markets is killing it! Great volume, incredible achievement!
➡️Bitcoin has been open for 99.99% of the time over the last 15 years.
➡️In full-on dumping mode, Bitcoin miners sold over 10,000 BTC alone on January 17. It marked the biggest daily decline in miner reserves in over 12 months.
Bitcoin miner reserves are at their lowest levels since July 2021.
➡️Bitcoin Whale sells 59K $BTC, purchased 3-6 months ago at an average price of $26K. This could be anyone...profit taking by any major party such as BlackRock etc. as they speculate on the selling of GBTC. (grayscale)
➡️Bitcoin hash rate hits an all-time high of 500 exahashes.
➡️Bitcoin network difficulty drops -3.90%, the largest negative correction since December 5, 2022, amid curtailments of Texas miners due to extreme cold conditions in the Lone Star State.
➡️ Another leak, now at Trezor. On January 17th, 2024, there was unauthorized access to their third-party support ticketing portal. The security incident has implications for customers who have interacted with Trezor Support since December 2021. Based on the ongoing investigation of the incident and the communication with the third-party service provider there is a potential that the contact details of up to 66000 users, customers who have interacted with Trezor Support since December 2021, may have been accessed.
TLDR: Of course, this can happen to everyone. But for the love of god start using Bitcoin-only hardware wallets.
Blockstream Jade
Bitbox 02 - Bitcoin only
Foundation Passport
➡️Over $24 billion worth of cryptocurrency was received by illicit addresses in 2023 accounting for 0.34% of all transaction volume,
Chainalysis has been estimated.
Now ask yourself, why do we need new AML/Money laundering rules and laws, like for example MiCAR or the new anti-crypto law by Senator Warren?
2-5% of traditional finance is estimated to be used for illicit transactions according to the UN. It's the fiat system that facilitates corruption...
➡️$2 Billion of dormant Bitcoin was moved for the first time since 2019. It had only moved once since 2013. - Arkham Intel
➡️Great tweet by Daniel Batten. "By investing in Bitcoin you support:
1. The profitability of renewable energy.
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2023/11/bitcoin-could-support-renewable-energy-development…
2. the mitigation of methane, our #1 lever to slow climate change.
https://planb.lugano.ch/why-bitcoin-is-the-worlds-best-esg-asset/…
3. The world's least emission-intensive financial instrument.
➡️HODLers are not selling
The HODL Waves chart shows the amount of Bitcoin held for different periods. Long-term holders (see blue arrows - 1yr+ & 6mo+) have NOT sold any BTC to ETFs
(picture 1)
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽The S&P 500 has officially hit a new all-time high for the first time in 2 years.
All 3 major market indices are now in all-time high territory.
An all-time high in fiat terms...in BTC...oh well, just have a look at the picture.
(picture4)
The S&P 500 is now 11% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. Serious disconnect between the traditional financial markets and the economy.
"Owning an SP500 fund is no different from holding a tech ETF.
The top 7 components are all tech companies and represent 26% of its holdings.
SPX should no longer be viewed as a diversification instrument. It’s no longer spreading risk across 500 companies to protect you."
🏦Banks:
👉🏽https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/status/1748133433761526134
Powell & Co. are planning to FORCE all banks to utilize emergency credit so that the market can’t tell safe banks from distressed banks. For me, the above tweet and the ramifications of that FED rule are yet another sign of the upcoming (necessary event) collapse/recession. They, the FED, did a similar thing in 2007.
In the end, the banking industry is set to consolidate. (picture 5 cash banks)
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
"The Fed's cumulative losses are nearly $140 billion now, and continuing to grow.
It doesn't really affect the Fed, but it adds to the fiscal deficit. The Fed used to be a profit source for the Treasury.
Now, its operating losses keep digging it into a hole, so no profits flow to the Treasury. The Fed has to once again turn profitable and pay back its cumulative losses before it would resume sending profits to the Treasury".- Lyn Alden (foto)
Meanwhile, the U.S. National Debt has crossed $34 trillion. That’s $102,719 for every single person in America.
👉🏽When asked what is the purpose of his trip to Davos, Javier Milei responds: "Planting the ideas of freedom in a Forum that is contaminated by the Socialist Agenda 2030 will only bring misery to the world."
"As we kick off 2024, the US has already added another ~$200 billion in Federal debt over the last 3 weeks.
This puts annual interest expense on track to hit $1.05 trillion.
To put this in perspective, annual interest expense was less than $500 billion just TWO YEARS ago.
As interest rates rise and deficit spending soars, interest expense is becoming one of our largest costs." - TKL
Ergo: Kicking the can down the road...as usual. With trillions of dollars of debt set to mature in the next 12 months, along with $2 trillion-plus of deficit spending likely for fiscal year 2024, and with the trough of the yield curve now the 5-yr UST bond at 4.04%, interest expense is likely to go much higher.
👉🏽"For 1st time in almost 30 years, China’s GDP in $ fell in 2023 to about $17.5trn, while U.S. gdp rise 6% to about $27trn. The gap widened by about $2trn. And China’s share of world GDP slipped to just under 17%. China's real GDP is now further below its pre-COVID trend than after the 2008 crisis. China will inevitably export its weak domestic demand to the rest of the world via rising current account surpluses and deflation."
China is contemplating issuing 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) in new debt through a special sovereign bond plan, marking only the fourth such sale in 26 years
The Middle Kingdom appears to be warming up the money printer.
Talking about liquidity:
👉🏽"Money market funds just saw $182 billion of inflows in the first 2 weeks of 2024.
This is the biggest 2-week inflow ever recorded to start a year.
This brings the total assets held by money market funds up to a record $6 trillion.
Since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, over $1.5 trillion has gone into money market funds.
Now for the trillion-dollar question.
Where does all this capital go once the Fed starts cutting rates?" - TKL
Maybe we can find the answer in the following statement:
👉🏽The top 0.1% (132,000 households) have a combined net worth of $20 trillion.
The bottom 50% (66,000,000 households) have a combined net worth of $3.6 trillion.
The wealth gap keeps widening to ever more extremes with each intervention cycle.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1747257006497706458
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1748012214794006802
Bingo: Opt Out Bitcoin
The world has now access to the hardest assets in human history.
👉🏽https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1748984398135906365
"Why Germany is rich but Germans are poor and angry. Germany’s grossly unequal distribution of wealth is contributing to the country’s malaise. The median household in Germany has just €107k of net assets, while the wealthiest 10% have at least €725k. Reconciling the Free Democrats’ anti-borrowing philosophy w/Social Democrats’ commitment to welfare spending & the Greens’ determination to promote decarbonization has led to bickering & compromises that satisfy almost nobody." - Holger Zschaepitz
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-15/why-germany-is-rich-but-germans-are-poor-and-angry
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
"The focus on security and decentralization is largely what makes Bitcoin different from other cryptocurrency networks"..."Bitcoin is competing in the global marketplace of monies."
Good article for people who don't understand investing in Bitcoin:
https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-network-health/
Free knowledge!
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/WWGWxznxF65tpkFhtpSxF7.webp

2024-01-21 22:01:51

With a current block reward of 6.25BTC, 6.25% of the total Bitcoin supply will be mined in this epoch.
Post halving, the reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC leaving 6.25% of the total Bitcoin supply left to be mined.
93.3% of all the Bitcoin has officially been mined. Only 6.7% left. It feels like 90% was just yesterday! Scarcity people! Remember from the previous halving to the next one would be the same amount of sats (6.25%) as from the next halving to the final halving in 2140. Let that sink in for a minute, especially now that the big dogs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) finally recognize Bitcoin as a store of value, as a legit asset class.
“When you really sit back and process this, it seems inevitable that there will be a moment of rude awakening among the masses. You’ll probably want to own some Bitcoin before that moment comes.”
What is the halving?
The last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next bitcoin halving will likely occur in early 2024. (ETA 23.4.2024)
What is the halving? New bitcoins enter circulation as block rewards, produced by the efforts of “miners” who use expensive electronic equipment to earn, or “mine,” them. Roughly every four years, every 210,000 blocks mined, the total number of bitcoin that miners can potentially win is halved.
The process will end once the number of bitcoin in circulation reaches 21 million. A popular estimate is that it will occur sometime near the year 2140.
Abundant money leads to asset scarcity.
Scarce money leads to asset abundance.
Bitcoin🧡
Credit picture: ChartsBTC
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #Bitcoinmining #halving https://image.nostr.build/401af8af01208a1b467e4354d96a5f4c7c649cff45f6d1092a8200416487aefc.png

2024-01-18 21:14:17

Massive amount of Bitcoin moves for first time in 5 years…👀
$2 Billion of dormant Bitcoin.
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption

2024-01-15 21:29:29

- reply

Zeker heb ik tips! stuur me anders maar even een DM.

2024-01-15 21:19:45

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"The 2020s decade is shaping up to challenge a lot of worldviews on money and energy.
Like, if someone is wrong in their view about the properties of money or energy, the consequences for that will be big. This is true both on the personal level and national level.
During times of abundance, worldviews don’t get tested very strongly and people are shielded from the consequences of being inaccurate.
It’s during times of scarcity that reality reasserts itself and filters out the workable from the unworkable worldviews.
To avoid being caught offsides as an investor, policymaker, or just in your own life, researching money and energy, and frequently re-assessing your own beliefs and understandings on those subjects, will be important.
There's always more to learn." - Lyn Alden
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
See picture ECB down below.
Schnabel is categorically wrong. If she thinks Bitcoin doesn't fulfill the characteristics of money, either she doesn't understand Bitcoin, or she doesn't understand money, or, and that's even worse, she doesn't understand either one of them.
The EURO will lose purchasing power against Bitcoin. I love how based community notes are and how the ECB got slapped in the face with this note for lying about their CBCD. Bitcoin is people's money!
➡️The following tweet by Peter Mccormack can be placed on every EU - global regulations tyranny:
"State of UK regulations -
If you want to buy Bitcoin you have to answer a massive list of questions on any exchange you want to use and potentially be rejected.
If you want to bet on any sports, you can download hundreds of apps and start betting immediately."
Opt out and buy your Bitcoin on platforms like Relai, Peach Bitcoin, 21 Bitcoinapp, Bisq, and Robosats.
➡️Last week I already shared some staggering stats regarding Bitcoin mining. If you haven't read last week's Weekly Recap, I highly recommend the Bitcoin segment of that blog post. More on Bitcoin mining:
"61.5% of all Bitcoin mining companies use sustainable energy.
Overall sustainability stat is lower (still >50%). Even so, this is a startling statistic. I've not seen numbers this high in any industry." - Daniel Batten
(foto)
➡️"New all-time high: off-grid Bitcoin mining reaches 30% of total hashrate.
Cambridge does not measure off-grid mining, resulting in an underestimate of total Bitcoin sustainable energy use.
The BEEST model measures both on-grid and off-grid mining" Daniel Batten
Source: http://Batcoinz.com/BEEST
➡️"Bitcoin emission intensity (emissions per unit of power) is now 269.6 g/kWh.
Emission intensity comparison (g/kWh)
Bitcoin: 269.6
Banking services/fiat: 464
Gold: 679
TLDR: increasing evidence Bitcoin is not only the soundest money, but it's also the greenest" - Daniel Batten
➡️ "only needs to rise 13% to $52,868 for MicroStrategy's holdings to reach a valuation of $10 billion" - BitcoinNews
➡️ Bitcoin setting new ALL-TIME HIGHS in:
- Turkey
- Argentina
- Egypt
- Lebanon
➡️Now for the people who want to know more information on the Bitcoin ETF, read the following bit. I am not going to share the shitshow at the SEC about how their Twitter account got hacked. Nor am I going to share the news that the ETFs went live. By now everyone has read or heard that.
To sum it up:
- SEC fumbles the announcement, validating government incompetence.
- Money managers (Vanguard, Merrill Lynch) blocking people from buying ETFs, proving that trusting your money with trusted 3rd parties is a risk.
"Vanguard issues a statement: “Spot Bitcoin ETFs will not be available for purchase on the Vanguard platform. Our perspective is that these products do not align with our offer focused on asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio.
Vanguard CEO, Tim Buckley adds on why he doesn’t believe Bitcoin should be in his client’s portfolios.
- No intrinsic value
- No cash flow
- No long-term potential"
Imagine steering clients away from Bitcoin.
"The Vanguard Group owns 8.2% of MicroStrategy, the 2nd largest of all holders. Somehow they find issues with Bitcoin ETFs.
What this tells you is worse than Vanguard not liking Bitcoin. It tells you that they are either liars, charlatans who haven't done their research, or both" - Gabor Gurbacs
Oh by the way one more stat on Vanguard. They run a $75bil ETF with 30% exposure to China, but you’re not allowed to invest in spot bitcoin ETF. Fuck 'em.
Check out the following clip - Michael Saylor on when Merrill Lynch refused to help him buy Bitcoin:
https://twitter.com/TheBTCTherapist/status/1746566835418321097
Meanwhile, Fidelity is LIGHT YEARS ahead of Vanguard and Merrill Lynch.
On the 12th of January, they called existing customers who were already exposed to Bitcoin-related securities (like mining stocks, etc.) to address any questions about the Bitcoin ETFs. That is how you treat customers.
Let's dive into some stats and the ramifications of that.
➡️Cathie Wood says "We are talking to state pension funds and state treasurers about investing in the Bitcoin ETF"
➡️BlackRock CEO says Bitcoin is "no different than what gold represented for thousands of years. It is an asset class that protects you."
➡️On Saturday after two days in the books, the nine ETFs took in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for a net total of +$819m. $IBITnow leading the pack with/ half a bil, Fidelity is a close second though. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k individual trades (1.2m incl $GBTC) is very impressive as is the 20bp avg prem.
More on this topic:
https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1746943732736311536
➡️Blackrock's Bitcoin holding reaches 11,500 BTC in ETF's first 2 days of trading
At current rates, Blackrock will own more Bitcoin than Microstrategy by February 1st.
Either current rates slow down, or Bitcoin price goes up.
➡️For more insights and data:
https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1746950978174370156
James, sorted through all the X noise of the past week to bring us a well-read easy to comprehend thread with everything we need to digest in one place. Enjoy!
➡️Great work by Satoshi Action Fund & Dennis Porter:
"The State of Indiana has officially introduced legislation to protect fundamental Bitcoin Rights!
This bill will DEFEND:
👉🏽Your right to access #BTC
👉🏽Your right to self-custody
👉🏽Your right to mine #BTC
👉🏽Your right to run a node
The bill will also:
👉🏽Eliminate Cap Gains (under $200)
👉🏽Exempt miners/nodes from MTL
This legislation (HB 1388) marks a significant step in affirming your fundamental right to engage with
Bitcoin, countering efforts by figures like Senator Warren to limit self-custody and mining rights." - Dennis Porter
➡️"Bitcoin has settled over 100 trillion dollars of value in the last decade, and people still want to debate whether it works." - Thomas Fahrer
➡️The average cost of production per Bitcoin post halving will be $37,856, according to CoinShares
➡️"Argentina marks its first Bitcoin-denominated rental agreement. A landlord and tenant in Argentina's 3rd biggest city Rosario, have sealed a rental agreement to be paid in Bitcoin each month. The tenant will settle monthly payments of $100 worth of Bitcoin to the landlord, via Fiwind national CEX.
Payments will be made to a designated address during the first five days of each month."
This is a notable development. Vamos Argentina!
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
Last week I shared the following bit...
"Wealth concentration. Just simple, raw data:
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1741960890134475090
While Wall Street celebrates, Main Street mourns.
To make it even worse I will quote Aaron Layman:
"The part Lyn left out is that the top 1% accounted for 53.9% of this wealth coming out of the pandemic, a record high. The gap between the middle class and the top 1% has grown wider over the past decade.
This is the essence of the Cantillon Effect in the Fed's trickle-down wealth inequality machine. It's also why you see several Fed apologists among the Fintwit ecosphere.
To put things in context, the Federal Reserve is still in cover-up mode when it comes to the self-dealing and trading by some of its former members who are part of that 1% (or 0.1%) club.
Congress continues to ignore the self-dealing by many of its members as they front-run legislation and line their own pockets."
bingo!"
Just to add additional information on top of that:
The top 13% of people have 85% of the world's wealth: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/family-office-uhnw/reports/global-wealth-report-2023/exploring.html
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 Zerohedge: "March will be lit:
1. Reverse repo ends
2. BTFP expires (allegedly...it will be extended)
3. Fed cuts (allegedly)
4. QT ends (allegedly)"
5. Bitcoin Halving event in April.
One thing is for sure, volatility is coming!
👉🏽"Since the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022, money market funds have seen massive inflows.
Total assets held in money market fund went from $4.5 trillion to $6 trillion in 2 years, a 33% increase.
Now, the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates.
With record levels of capital on the sidelines, we could see a widespread rotation out of these money market funds.
If this capital goes back into the equity market, the recent run is far from over.
Never has there been more capital on the sidelines." - The Kobeissi Letter
👉🏽 "The current max drawdown in temporary help services employment was only seen in prior recessions ... in fact, the depth of today's decline was not even reached in the early 1990s recession." - Liz Ann Sonders
👉🏽 Talking about recessions. Please read the following tweet by Luke Gromen:
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1745829824029917546
For me, this is the most insightful post of 2024, and Luke is a must-follow macro resource. Just imagine the deficit when there is a recession/crisis. If it takes this large of a deficit to keep GDP positive....yikes!
👉🏽With Milei’s decree deregulating the housing market, the supply of rental units in Buenos Aires has doubled - with prices falling by 20%.
Source: https://www.cronista.com/negocios/murio-la-ley-de-alquileres-ya-se-duplico-la-oferta-de-departamentos-en-caba-y-caen-los-precios/
Now what are the short & long-term effects?
"Short term: more supply, lower prices, longer-term: a sustained supply of long-term rentals with price increases accompanying salary increases." - BowTiedMara
👉🏽https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1746092930102641031
It becomes a problem when real GDP also declines, which is currently the case.
Please read the bit on Germany in last week's Weekly Recap.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
We can learn a lot from the 40-year history of email and the many decisions that prioritized corporate server admins over the autonomy of individual users. Centralization is a slippery slope of convenience against which we must remain vigilant. Great historical read on SMTP (email protocol):
https://blog.lopp.net/death-of-decentralized-email/
Free knowledge! And remember:
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." - George Santayana.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/P7KrGRhBLdr2PPCDrpMTWS.webp
https://void.cat/d/WUDsENWCPpyPAif8Jo7GxR.webp

2024-01-13 23:35:18

It’s cold in the Netherlands❄️…
The perfect time to install an S9 heater!
Many thanks to Mining Wholesale!
https://miningwholesale.eu
Livingroom warm ✅
Mining sats ✅
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #Bitcoinmining #S9heater https://video.nostr.build/f627ceca885fc3fa118cb3c0efd309433a4ba8af4e377cdda749be4b31223e82.mp4

2024-01-10 23:14:32

Gary Gensler’s letter on the spot Bitcoin ETF approval makes two things clear:
1) This happened because the SEC lost the Grayscale case
2) This “in no way” signals their willingness to approve other “crypto asset securities”
Bitcoin gaining institutional interest is a big step forward. The market is growing and maturing and transforming Bitcoin from a largely retail-owned asset, to a global macro asset that will compete with gold and US treasuries.
An Exchange Traded Fund is a fund that holds assets and individual shares of the fund can be traded on an exchange.
Bitcoin ETFs will do one thing and one thing only: they hold Bitcoin and allow you to get exposure to Bitcoin in your investment accounts.
ETFs will make it much easier to get exposure to Bitcoin.
You’ve had a little over 15 years to learn about #Bitcoin and front run Wall Street.
Did you do it?🧡
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #SEC #Bitcoin ETF

2024-01-10 15:37:00

ECB fuckers!🤣
The ECB is basically saying GFY to everyone living under their regime.
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #ECB https://image.nostr.build/ff2e435e65200fec62f890f9f91b887e1bc06e7e51062ae5089cf8278170a7fb.jpg

2024-01-10 15:23:25

- reply

💯🚨 value for value

2024-01-10 14:52:08

New Jerseyyy Time it is!
Fuckers!
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #SEC https://image.nostr.build/c8698645ebf0ee415329b1633827a07e82febce05c1b7e274fb66a432fdfb2d4.jpg

2024-01-10 14:39:13

- reply

GM freaks!🧡🚨🔥

2024-01-10 13:05:14

Fuckers!🤣🤣
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #SEC https://image.nostr.build/5d6aff22537142fb387d61ca9c977585725530b4eb10160b682e97fe82cd3c6f.jpg

2024-01-10 07:19:49

💀🤣🤣🤣 this is hilarious!
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #SEC https://image.nostr.build/e6f04e7f82f231be07aac4ca84c7a030eac5a782f952d71138b24c63114f3d56.jpg https://image.nostr.build/d2a7923a8307cbd76fd168942bfcfe6d13ccb8b05d61f5587cf1673e82db7fa8.jpg

2024-01-09 23:59:33

- reply

Awesome job, sir!🎯

2024-01-09 23:41:01

Fuckers!
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #SEC https://image.nostr.build/48cdf8df78a068f5c8b3befe31c10928e128b2d3a80bcd601f05cff66af98766.png

2024-01-09 15:01:46

Bitcoin has only been above its current price for 3.83% of the time it's existed.
I have no feeling, I am numb.l regarding the price.
LFG!🧡
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/094d7d3c0c9b984a7806141d069b2df81e38907d465c6c7a20ebf558ce07d075.jpg

2024-01-08 21:42:28

- reply

H/T @npub17u5…t4tp https://image.nostr.build/103edcca3cb7040aeec07bece3d94134f8ff0c095b286f55c3cdd2c7a872feec.png

2024-01-08 20:06:48

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Events in 2024 with probability %:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF 10th of Jan (90%)
- Rate cuts in March (75%)
- Bitcoin Halving in April (100%)
- QE by the Fed second half of 2024 (90%)" -BTCforFreedom
"Wall Street thinks it will change Bitcoin but it will be Bitcoin that will change Wall Street." - BitVolt
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
➡️ I quote Daniel Batten: "Another first: a well-respected sustainability magazine just published an article with the headline
"In an unexpected twist,
Bitcoin mining could help wind and solar development"
It takes some time to get it. But when you commit to taking the time, you will finally realize that Bitcoin functions as an "economic battery" and Bitcoin mining will improve the economics of renewables. Take the time. Gradually, then suddenly!
read the article here:
"A new analysis demonstrates how Bitcoin mining could ease financial stresses in the early phases of renewable energy deployment."
https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2023/12/wind-and-solar-projects-struggle-financially-in-their-early-phases-could-bitcoin-mining-change-that/
➡️ Another example of how the narrative has quickly shifted.
The author of the following article mentioned to Daniel Batten that this was the most popular post on Coinpost Global last year.
https://medium.com/@coinpost.gb/bitcoin-is-crucial-climate-tech-btp-ep-1-recap-854d3ebbe573…
And this was the most watched talk from Plan₿
https://planb.lugano.ch/why-bitcoin-is-the-worlds-best-esg-asset/…
Now let's connect that with the Bitcoin ETF...are you ready?
➡️ Bitcoin ETF: 63 million boomer brokerage accounts with 2X margin are about to gain easy access to spot Bitcoin price exposure.
➡️ According to PwC, 30% of the $23 Trillion in ESG Funds ($ 6.9 trillion) is struggling to find a home.
This French ruling against fossil fuels in ESG funds will make that harder. Bitcoin has never looked so ripe to fill the gap for sophisticated ESG investors.
Implication: Bitcoin & ESG is often the most popular Bitcoin topic for pre-coiners
Today we learned that Blackrock was cutting their ESG division, but staffing their Bitcoin division.
Remember:
ESG = force behavior
Bitcoin = incentive behavior
Bitcoin will be the trend, it is inevitable.
Regarding the Bitcoin ETF, I can be very clear.
1. If you understand Bitcoin a bit and have a low time preference you hope the SEC rejects the ETF this week so you can stack more sats. People with high time preferences hope they approve it. Know the difference!
2. I really don't care what will happen. I’m not looking forward to buying Bitcoin at all-time highs this year but, that’s exactly what’s going to happen. "I’ll be buying at the top forever”
3. If you own a spot Bitcoin ETF, you don't hold Bitcoin.
extra info regarding point 2:
But Felipe I don't want to buy the top...
If you bought the top of 2013 you would have 3840% profit.
If you bought the top of 2017 you would have 140% profit.
Soon the 2022 top purchases will still be in good profit.
If you want to trade your Bitcoin, fine, just know that HODLing Bitcoin isn't a bad thing. It's all about perspective.
https://twitter.com/VailshireCap/status/1742239078043541944
extra info on point 3:
"Bitcoin vs Bitcoin ETF:
Bitcoin:
- Decentralized
- Secure
- Permissionless
- Money
Bitcoin ETF
- Decentralized
- Secure
- Permissionless
- Money
Choose wisely."
Now for the people who want to know more information on the Bitcoin ETF, read the following bit:
➡️ Let's start with a survey conducted by BitWise:
source: https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-bitwise-vettafi-2024-benchmark-survey
- Only 39% of financial advisors believe a spot bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2024.
- 88% of said advisors interested in purchasing Bitcoin are waiting until after a spot ETF is approved.
- Only 19% said they are able to currently buy in client accounts.
- 71% of advisors favor #bitcoin over Ethereum. 29% should not be giving out advice.
The above makes me wonder that we are still early and it is still early to get into Bitcoin. Just stating the obvious, the approval itself won't change that face.
➡️ BlackRock sources say the SEC will take until the end of this week to approve Bitcoin ETFs - Fox Business
➡️ https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1742998017454555438
If I am right Fidelity is the only ETF applicant in which you can self custody of your Bitcoin.
➡️The fight for customers has started...
Today Bitcoin ETF applicants filled in last-minute amendments to lower their fees
BlackRock and ARK have slashed their Bitcoin ETF fees.
ARK
- down from 0.80% to 0.25%
BlackRock
- 0.20% for the first 12 months, or first $5 billion AUM.
https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1744336024845578539
Please do yourself a favor and read Caitlin's tweets, all of them. And do understand this all smells like rehypothecation baby. Remember Celsius? Remember FTX?
➡️Now what will happen with Bitcoin price when a wall of money hits a scarce and illiquid asset like Bitcoin?
https://twitter.com/Capital15C/status/1743899674841378862
Today multinational bank Standard Chartered calling for $50b-$100b of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. To give you some context that is like the equivalent of 10 more MicroStrategy's / Michael Saylor's entering the market.
We know the Bitcoin ETF is inevitable. When even the SEC is releasing statements & warning investors not to "FOMO" into digital assets, you know this thing can't be stopped. By the way, the SEC are just freaking morons by warning people not to FOMO into digital assets...by doing that the opposite will happen. People will FOMO with a vengeance into the Bitcoin ETFs (unfortunately).
I fully subscribe to the following statement made by BitPaine:
https://twitter.com/BitPaine/status/1743250516417851864
Funny how the narrative is shifting on Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin ESG, etc.
The puppets of the mainstream media are doing their part:
On the 6th of January the Financial Times, perhaps the most 'authoritative' financial news publication in the UK, published a bullish article on Bitcoin. https://www.ft.com/content/59bb430b-a5b1-4469-b05a-482b951109a2
"There is no bigger investment story right now. Google searches for “bitcoin ETF” have tripled over the past week."
"I would be mad to miss out."
This is the Number 1 European financial news source giving readers the green light to buy into the ETF. Which will start trading this week.
The author pushes back on a lot of the FUD in giving his reasons for buying into the Bitcoin ETF when it is eventually launched:
- volatility
- risk
- no income
- hard to value
- speculative
- intangible
Imagine how far we have come that FT is orange-pilled.
➡️ Bitcoin has been approved as a unit of account in the free private city jurisdiction of Próspera in Honduras. This essentially validates Bitcoin’s legitimacy and its acceptance in commercial, tax, and financial dealings in the zone
https://twitter.com/duczko/status/1743848879932805510
➡️Monthly Bitcoin miner revenue set a new all-time high in December at $320 million
➡️Marathon sets a record Bitcoin duction of 1,853 Bitcoin in December, taking the total 2023 production to 12,852. Marathon holds currently over 15K Bitcoin.
Talking about Miners:
➡️ Because of Bitcoin mining, 1800 homes in this (read the article) African village Bondo have electricity:
- Food can be stored in fridges, so villagers do not have to make the 12-mile trek to batch purchase
- Cooking the evening meal is 3x quicker
“Yet the big surprise in Bondo is not simply the supply of energy to such an isolated community, in a country where only one in eight citizens has access to grid electricity and on a continent where almost half the 1.2 billion population still lack this life-changing supply. The real eye-opener is the stack of 32 computers inside the concrete pump shed. This innovative mini-grid — located more than two hours from Malawi’s second city of Blantyre along bumpy roads and tracks that can become impassable in a torrential downpour — is mining Bitcoin to fund its operation.”
“Bitcoin has also become a helpful tool for activists and journalists in dictatorships since it makes it far harder to track funds.”
Bitcoin is financial inclusion, Bitcoin is financial empowerment!
Full article: https://unherd.com/2024/01/the-african-village-mining-bitcoin/
➡️ https://twitter.com/olvelez007/status/1741998751697289588
➡️The #17 largest Bitcoin holder bought 1,500 Bitcoin on the fourth of January for $65 million.
➡️ https://twitter.com/thepowerfulHRV/status/1743008302231875874/photo/1
It’s only a matter of time until most companies adopt this strategy. For now...MicroStrategy is sitting on some $4B in profits. Talk about C O N V I C T I O N
(picture 3)
➡️ 76% of Bitcoin supply is held by Long-Term HODLers - ARK Invest
➡️ "In countries where those in power weaponize the financial system, Bitcoin offers a way out to retain control over one's financial destiny" - Forbes
➡️The number of up-to-date merchants accepting BTC cataloged by @btcmap increased 174% in 2023. (picture 4)
➡️ Japanese e-commerce giant Mercari to accept Bitcoin payments. It has +20m monthly customers...
➡️On the 3rd of January, 15 years ago Bitcoin went online!
Bitcoin Genesis Block Day! This block is unspendable. Satoshi also waited 6 days before mining block #2 so others had time to join the network.
Now that Bitcoin has existed for 15 years! Lindy effect says that Bitcoin would at least exist for another 15 years.
January 3, 2009. Satoshi undermines block 0 on a difficulty 1 CPU and incorporates into the Genesis Block hexadecimal code base the headline of that day's Times "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks". The bank bailout plan ‘cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the TGFC.
The Bitcoin close on its 15th anniversary was its second-highest birthday close in history.
➡️ Last item on the Bitcoin segment. Please do not forget that Bitcoin is the 9th most valuable asset in the world. In less than 15 years, it surpassed 7,963 other assets to accomplish this. By the end of 2025, I suspect it to be in the top five.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
Wealth concentration. Just simple, raw data:
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1741960890134475090
While Wall Street celebrates, Main Street mourns.
To make it even worse I will quote Aaron Layman:
"The part Lyn left out is that the top 1% accounted for 53.9% of this wealth coming out of the pandemic, a record high. The gap between the middle class and the top 1% has grown wider over the past decade.
This is the essence of the Cantillon Effect in the Fed's trickle-down wealth inequality machine. It's also why you see several Fed apologists among the Fintwit ecosphere.
To put things in context, the Federal Reserve is still in cover-up mode when it comes to the self-dealing and trading by some of its former members who are part of that 1% (or 0.1%) club.
Congress continues to ignore the self-dealing by many of its members as they front-run legislation and line their own pockets."
bingo!
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"The Fed's BTFP emergency loan facility reached $141.2 billion in outstanding loans this week. It is up almost $30 billion in a month.
Borrowing from BTFP is accelerating as banks look to secure a sweetheart loan before the facility restricts itself or shuts off on March 11th."
As mentioned in one of my previous Weekly Recaps:
"Regulatory Arbitrage. Arbitraging the Fed itself. No risk. Absolute clown show. Classic bank mindset - making money at the expense of the public.
source: https://archive.ph/xhUg5"
(picture 5)
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽"10 of the last 11 months have seen downward revisions in their jobs number, according to Zerohedge.
The November 2023 jobs number was revised lower, from 199,000 to 173,000.
This means that the November jobs report actually missed expectations of 180,000.
The October jobs report was also revised lower from 150,000 to 105,000.
This means that the October jobs report was an even bigger miss than expected.
For September, the jobs number was revised lower by 74,000 jobs." - TKL
Either they don't fully understand/comprehend their own data (by they I mean the government). That itself is concerning but not surprising OR the establishment is trying to bury the data so it doesn’t destroy their narrative that the economy is strong.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1742982672492974376
The perfect analogy by James Lavish.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1744058890029813829
"4 years ago, banks were sitting on ~$100 billion of unrealized gains.
Now, they are sitting on ~$700 billion of unrealized losses.
The question becomes, what happens when the BTFP expires in just a few months?"- TKL
👉🏽https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1741906043720868090
This means that not only Germany should be worried, but also Europe.
Who knew that shutting down your nuclear reactors and trying to run the green agenda to run your economy on intermittent wind and solar would be a bad idea?
One word: Deindustrialization
The following bit is from the Weekly Recap on the 4th of December 2023:
"Deutsche Bundesbank cuts German 2024 GDP forecast by a whopping 0.5ppts to -0.2% due to the budget crisis following the Constitutional Court hearing.
"The state pension is looking increasingly shaky. The federal govt now has to contribute more than €100bn a year. And the fact that the introduction of the so-called equity pension, i.e. the funded pension, has now also been postponed does not make things any easier."
"There was a statement last year by the president of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations: “Germany’s pension system is “on the verge of collapse. It won’t be financially viable in five years without reform. The costs will explode” Labor shortages, an aging population, and lower productivity - are all material factors for the viability of this system"
Germany is the sick man of Europe. This is going to be a massive issue in so many countries, not only in Germany."
👉🏽https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1743667579011371388
Slowing QT means slowly switching to QE, which means more liquidity, which means markets go up. Liquidity is important.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Lyn Alden's January newsletter is out now and focuses on the push-and-pull effects that fiscal and monetary policy are currently having.
Lyn's monthly writings are always a must-read for me, but the recent one is particularly good! What I like the most about this newsletter is that she used information from her previous write-ups and connected them to the economic changes over the last few years.
https://lynalden.com/january-2024-newsletter/
Today / this week I feel extra special, as I started a new chapter in my life, so I will share an additional 'gift':
"The release of the 2023 Q4 Advisory Board Call: Broken Money – And How to Fix It, featuring the remarkable Lyn Alden"
https://www.incrementum.li/en/journal/advisory-board-call-q4-2023/
Free knowledge!
And please order her book 'Broken Money':
https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0CG8985FR?crid=3U31JD0RX7P7T&keywords=lyn+alden+broken+money&qid=1693853281&sprefix=Lyn+Alden,aps,553&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=felipehubertu-20&linkId=549c11e6bc118853bc6c5593866e6336&language=de_DE&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/YbQrhobQ1ciQzPqkwEr3MV.webp
https://void.cat/d/LBGtDCUfyprVZvGDpzBHFw.webp
https://void.cat/d/StKYGxA2Ux1K18LfVFQU9n.webp
https://void.cat/d/GNAB18p2WzjzfvkbuFz59J.webp
https://void.cat/d/MaNxbttNY298A8bwGXeSeh.webp

2024-01-06 09:07:02

Here you go, some weekend reading:
https://www.lynalden.com/january-2024-newsletter/
As always @npub1a2c…w83a is killing it, but what I like the most from this newsletter is that she used information from her previous write-ups and connected them to the economic changes over the last few years.
Please do yourself a favor and order her book ‘Broken Money’:
https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0CG8985FR?crid=3U31JD0RX7P7T&keywords=lyn+alden+broken+money&qid=1693853281&sprefix=Lyn+Alden,aps,553&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=felipehubertu-20&linkId=549c11e6bc118853bc6c5593866e6336&language=de_DE&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #lynalden #brokenmoney https://image.nostr.build/76ae8fdc42d80b4c555b46d933d456cc19e40ac4f3cc86cefe19ee3f10f0c15f.jpg

2024-01-06 08:39:13

“Yet the big surprise in Bondo is not simply the supply of energy to such an isolated community, in a country where only one in eight citizens has access to grid electricity and on a continent where almost half the 1.2 billion population still lack this life-changing supply. The real eye-opener is the stack of 32 computers inside the concrete pump shed. This innovative mini-grid — located more than two hours from Malawi’s second city of Blantyre along bumpy roads and tracks that can become impassable in a torrential downpour — is mining Bitcoin to fund its operation.”
“Bitcoin has also become a helpful tool for activists and journalists in dictatorships, since it makes it far harder to track funds.”
Full article: https://unherd.com/2024/01/the-african-village-mining-bitcoin/
Bitcoin is financial inclusion, Bitcoin is financial empowerment!
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #financialinclusion https://image.nostr.build/22325141ea2dd7e978904e1a50680734fbd7e4a441f9c4455a46cd33283d2bb0.jpg

2024-01-06 08:24:01

Bitcoin ETF approval is basically done....
SEC is trying to line everyone up for Jan 11th launch - Eric Balchunas Bloomberg's Senior ETF analyst
Anywayyyyy, stack sats & stay humble!🧡
Opt out: Bitcoin🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #BTC #Bitcoin #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/f044993f10b8a53ad75606964edc0883e13cb549e40706956a729d81a44dcbc5.jpg https://image.nostr.build/714fa3f6873fc036e25e4c9d3c0879a0869f85952f34b35248885369484155cc.jpg

2024-01-05 15:52:18

"71% of advisors favor #bitcoin over Ethereum.
29% should not be giving out advice."
source:
https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-bitwise-vettafi-2024-benchmark-survey
h/t to BitwiseInvest for conducting this survey.
Now, I am not giving financial advice, but you know I am Bitcoin only.
Bitcoin is going to stay forever. Cryptos like Ethereum will not. Period!
Bitcoin is the only thing really decentralized. Anything else apart from Bitcoin, including basically all other cryptocurrencies, is not really decentralized.
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #shitcoins https://image.nostr.build/308273dd0f3d755d3545e68abda1ce906176d50bbd0c3984837fd28b2d0ec24d.png https://image.nostr.build/edc89da79bbac2f3bc023580b9a4a6911f36ac2e9b0b724c8aae74bf30f42d2a.jpg

2024-01-03 19:54:50

On this day 15 years ago Bitcoin went online!
Happy Bitcoin Genesis Block Day! This block is unspendable. Satoshi also waited 6 days before mining block #2 so others had time to join the network.
Now that Bitcoin has existed for 15 years! Lindy effect says that Bitcoin would at least exist for another 15 years.
January 3, 2009. Satoshi undermines block 0 on a difficulty 1 CPU and incorporates into the Genesis Block hexadecimal code base the headline of that day’s Times “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks”. The bank bailout plan ‘cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the TGFC.
Since that day, the network has grown dramatically. Now, millions of people all over earth use Bitcoin. And while it’s great to hear about other countries like El Salvador embracing Bitcoin, I can’t help but wish my own country 🇳🇱 was embracing Bitcoin too.
Some stats (repost @relai.app ):
“In that time, it achieved:
📈$800M market cap
🆙+ 6 billion % price increase
⏲️+ 99.99% uptime
☠️Declared dead 475
⛏93% of supply mined
#⃣ Hashrate at 500 EH/s
💸+ 947 million transactions”
Tick tick, next block without fail, Bitcoin continues to provide us with the most significant tool for freedom of speech and monetary sovereignty in the digital age!
Bitcoin is about financial inclusion and economic empowerment.
Bitcoin is secured by the most powerful computing network in the world!🧡
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @npub1sqz…vk7v 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.🎯
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. 🧡
Felipe - BitcoinFriday
#zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #happybirthdaybitcoin https://image.nostr.build/920ee812e71f2ea6e7813a390430d843354758effb663b9f2b5b3f76e8faef91.png

2024-01-01 21:21:41

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"2024 will be the year your family members tell you you’re lucky for buying Bitcoin early.
They didn’t read the white paper.
They didn’t HODL from $69K —> $15K.
They didn’t listen to hours of podcasts.
They didn’t question the money.
They didn’t do the Proof of Work." - The Bitcoin Therapist
"Why Bitcoin is the clear choice:
- PoW
- No CEO
- Network effect
- Truly decentralized
- Never been hacked
- Proven by the Lindy Effect
- Global scalability with Lightning
- First absolute scarce asset ever (21M)" - Bitcoin for Freedom
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before I start this Weekly Recap - New Year edition special I want to wish you a happy new year fam. May 2024 be the best year for Bitcoin yet and starting to heal this crazy world.
For me, 2023 was a rollercoaster. I am writing this Weekly Recap from my new apartment as on the last day of the year I moved out of a place, once called home. After 7 years of relationship and one beautiful son, my ex and I decided to break up.
2024 will be different in many ways. For me, it will be back to basic and start all over.
My 2024 New Year’s Resolutions:
1. Head down.
2. Work hard.
3. Stack sats.
What can you expect from me in 2024:
More content, more videos, more guides, more orange-pilling, more Bitcoin.
As I said so often. Bitcoin is financial inclusion and financial empowerment. Our current system consolidates power, evident in the 1% owning 43% of global wealth. Bitcoin is promoting inclusivity with its 2.7 billion unbanked potential users worldwide.
Although I am just a pleb, my share in the game called Life & Human History is minuscule...
I do hope that by doing what I do, we all can change the world through Bitcoin education. Let me quote Thomas Fahrer:
"If you own Bitcoin, I work for you. If you don't own Bitcoin, I work for your kids, their kids, and all future generations. Fixing the money isn't just an important thing. It's the most important thing."
So if you’re reading this Weekly Recap now or in the future, you have a chance to make 2024 (or 2140) one of the best years of your life. You have this chance despite all the obstacles in your way because you have power over your mind — not outside events. And that power makes all the difference. Don’t waste it.
#Bitcoin
Felipe
➡️Now let's start the Weekly Recap with a 2023 recap by Watcher.Guru:
• US judge rules XRP is not a security.
• $10 trillion asset manager BlackRock officially files for a Spot Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF.
• BlackRock CEO says crypto is digital gold and "Bitcoin is an international asset."
• Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty on all charges.
• Elon Musk tells advertisers who are trying to blackmail him to "go fu*k yourself."
• Russia to use Chinese yuan instead of US dollars to settle trade with Asia, Africa, & Latin America.
• FED Chair Jerome Powell says "Crypto appears to have staying power as an asset class."
• Changpeng Zhao (CZ) resigns as Binance CEO.
• Coinbase relists Ripple XRP.
• The Chinese Yuan overtakes the US dollar as the most-used currency in China's cross-border transactions for the first time in history. • Saudi Arabia enters a trade alliance with China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and four Central Asian nations to step further away from reliance on the US dollar.
• Argentina President Javier Milei plans to replace the peso with the US Dollar and shut down the central bank.
• Turkish crypto exchange CEO sentenced to 11,196 years in prison for stealing $2 billion in customer funds.
• SEC drops lawsuit against Ripple XRP executives. • Crypto asset manager Grayscale wins lawsuit against SEC.
• Coinbase sues the SEC, seeking regulatory clarity for the crypto industry.
• El Salvador President officially signs a bill eliminating all taxes on income, property, and capital gains for technology innovations.
• Hong Kong court recognizes cryptocurrencies as property.
• Chinese property giant Evergrande files for bankruptcy.
• Terra founder Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro.
• US Government arrests SafeMoon founders John Karony, Kyle Nagy & Thomas Smith.
• BlackRock names JPMorgan as an authorized participant for its Spot Bitcoin ETF.
• The UK Government plans to establish new digital asset legislation and make the country a crypto hub.
What do we learn from this?? Things are brewing, stick to Bitcoin, and in the end Bitcoin wins.
Some other interesting Bitcoin data points at the end of 2023:
➡️ https://twitter.com/Capital15C/status/1741698499777790054
➡️ Bitcoin had its best year after a bear market in its history. This year will be wild. No matter what. The goal is to end up with more Bitcoin than you started with.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1741882201715638559
10-year CAGR: +50% 5-Year CAGR: +63% $BTC returns by year.
Bitcoin in 2023 - closing the year at $42,288 (up ~158%)
➡️ Great investor letter by Stone Ridge Holdings CEO, Ross Stevens.
Bitcoin section in his annual Stone Ridge investor letter is too good:
"Bitcoin is not risky. You cannot print Bitcoin. Fiat is risky. Treasuries are risky. All $33 trillion of them!"
https://info.nydig.com/hubfs/2023-Stone-Ridge-Investor-Letter.pdf
➡️The number of addresses containing at least 0.01, 0.1, and 1 Bitcoin grew significantly in 2023. In particular, the number of addresses with at least 0.01 BTC has undergone the largest increase since 2017. (foto)
➡️Coinmetrics estimates (by removing likely change outputs) that $1.4T was transferred via the Bitcoin blockchain in 2023, averaging $45,000 per second.
➡️Bitcoin fees on Friday 29th of December were more than double that of ETH.
ps.: On ETH, Vitalik Buterin proposes a scaling solution for Ethereum which would raise the minimum deposit for validators to 4096 ETH (~$1 million).
Let's change the rule yet again and more centralization. Classic! It's called shitcoin for a reason.
Oh on top of that Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain experienced the most DeFi security incidents by far in 2023.
Red flag here, red flag there...if you want to dig a little further, here you go...be my guest:
https://twitter.com/BoringSleuth/status/1740632667765256536
➡️ Bitcoin's network hashrate increased by 102% during 2023, from 256 to 517 exahash per second.
➡️ Goldman Sachs' Matthew McDermott on spot Bitcoin ETFs: "One, it broadens and deepens the liquidity in the market... because you’re actually creating institutional products that can be traded by institutions that don’t need to touch the bare assets... and that opens up the universe of the pensions, insurers, etc."
"Spot Bitcoin ETFs are not a sell-the-new event, but rather a reflection of growing real demand for exposure to Bitcoin. A Bitcoin allocation can significantly enhance portfolio Sharpe ratios," says Chamber of Digital Commerce CEO Perianne Boring
Anyway please do remember that "ETFs are simply custodial wallets built for suits!" - Matt Odell
Just to make the statement above a bit 'stronger'...
BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie designate Jane Street, SBF's former employer, as an Authorized Participant for the spot Bitcoin ETF.
hmm built for suits you say...
➡️ Talking about the Bitcoin ETF.
https://twitter.com/AlexOttaBTC/status/1741582290172420274
That is an interesting take on the Bitcoin ETF in comparison with the Gold ETF in 2004/2006. Something I have shared and discussed on multiple platforms since 2021.
Asset managers that submitted timely filings could launch spot Bitcoin ETFs as early as January 10, the SEC's decision date for Ark/21Shares ETF. SEC could notify issuers by Tuesday or Wednesday for approval, per Reuters
And it is not only in the US. Hong Kong is also set to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs that use either 'in-kind' or 'cash creates'.
➡️ The number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 100 BTC has remained essentially unchanged since 2020. It looks like that Bitcoin Whales HODL.
➡️ Great take by Jameson Lopp on thinking about Bitcoin in terms of thermodynamic security.
https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1741822081145188748
Please click on the link and see how the thermodynamic security is accelerating compared to 2022.
➡️ I will use a Bitcoin miner to heat my home. meme 1
Look at Gridless (miner in Kenya) for example:
https://twitter.com/GridlessCompute/status/1741754315667120302
Use meme 2 in 2024 if you get the question..."there is no reason for Bitcoin to exist! Only speculators use it!"
➡️The #10 largest Bitcoin holder bought 8,888.88 Bitcoin on the 31st of december 2023 for $379 million.
➡️ On December 27, ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) sold:
- 148,885 Coinbase (COIN) shares worth over $27.5 million
- 2.25 million Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares worth $81 million
- 231,102 Block Inc (SQ) shares worth $18 million.
But Ark invested/bought 4.3 million shares of Prosahres Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO).
Interesting, isn't it?
➡️ The EU contributes just 6% of the global Bitcoin mining hash rate, according to a report by BanklessTimes.
"The EU can improve their hash rate, but for them to benefit, they have to lay ground," says analyst Alice Leetham
➡️ 41,013 Bitcoin will be mined globally between 2040-2044... Barely over 15 years away. Michael Saylor bought 30,750 BTC in the last 90 days. That’s 38% of all the BTC mined over those 3 months. Yet I still know people sitting in cash waiting for a 20%-60% dip in USD.
Everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
https://twitter.com/IIICapital/status/1739708289988829269
➡️ "Nocoiner: Bitcoin hasn't even hit an ATH yet!
Bitcoiner:
Addresses with >$100 at ATH.
Addresses with >$1k at ATH.
Addresses with >$10k at ATH.
% of Bitcoin Last Active >1 Year ago at ATH.
% of Bitcoin Last Active >3 Years ago at ATH.
Hash rate at ATH.
Difficulty at ATH" - Sam Callahan
I always tell people not to focus on the price, but focus on the growth of the network.
➡️ Tether withdraws 8,888.88 BTC ($379M) from Bitfinex, positioning itself among the top 10 Bitcoin holders. Tether currently holds 66,465.2 BTC with a market capitalization of $2.82.
➡️ https://twitter.com/IIICapital/status/1739690368218673287
"Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio certainly challenges traditional finance norms, emphasizing its unique risk-return profile. It's a transformative force in the financial landscape, signaling a shift towards a new global financial system."
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
Year-ahead Wall Street consensus S&P forecast performance vs reality:
Year Forecast Reality
2021 7% +27%
2022 9% -19%
2023 7% +24%
2024 8% ???
If 2024 has a return of 5% then they were the same on average. Just one thing you need to remember...
Wall Street...governments...the forecasters can not forecast.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽As we finish out 2023, the US Debt now stands at $33.9T, after piling on another $2.5T in a single year. -James Lavish
👉🏽The market is now pricing in a base case of 7 interest rate cuts in 2024. There's even a 10% chance of 8 rate cuts into 2024 with a ~1% chance of 9 rate cuts. In other words, markets are saying there is a possibility of up to 3 TIMES as many rate cuts as the Fed is guiding. Markets are expecting anywhere from 175 to 225 basis points of rate cuts next year. - TKL
👉🏽China & Saudi Arabia ditch US dollar to sign a 50bn Yuan currency swap for trade. This allows China to start buying oil outside the US-controlled financial system. The world is changing, and the dollar's reign is crumbling.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Perfect pod to start the year. WBD755 - 2024, the Year of the Bitcoin Bull with Lyn Alden
In the following interview/podcast 'What Bitcoin Did - WBD751" you will learn:
- The macroeconomic landscape of 2023 & 2024
- Inflation, economic growth & central bank policies
- Gold & Bitcoin in a post-fiat currency era
- Bitcoin's price & legitimacy
“The United States is just set to structurally run these massive fiscal deficits…that’s called fiscal dominance, it’s where the central bank does not have full control…because the amount of public debt & deficits are too big and forcing them to assist it.” — Lyn Alden
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/2024-the-year-of-the-bitcoin-bull
or watch it on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4m1P0_yMJ8
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption
https://void.cat/d/TVJLxhpXBDZc4hwVDhs4Tc.webp
https://void.cat/d/XQ6PiW9x53cQ6nTU8tLgJ2.webp
https://void.cat/d/V6rxqRt4AHQKQmYQrtN2eB.webp

2024-01-01 19:01:32

Bitcoin had its best year after a bear market in its history.🧡
This year will be wild. No matter what.
The goal is to end up with more Bitcoin than you started with.
Happy new year fam!🧡
#BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/af5fdfa6f92daabf50fc55244b2166fb7b664c170721ffec31eac80020b691ab.png

2023-12-28 10:05:01

The video says it all! 🧡
#noderunners #zap 🧡 #3KD #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoinfriends https://video.nostr.build/49ddb64722c7ca427803f14ea5cfef752d3ebe76e78c5fe8c12aaa4ed5ff06de.mp4

2023-12-26 20:13:58

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"On Christmas Day, exactly 15 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto was still at work perfecting the 1st Bitcoin code. Truly a gift to all mankind." - Pete Rizzo
"Bitcoin cannot tell lies, nor can it ever be covered up. Lying is the counterfeiting of facts, and truth cannot be counterfeited. The word Truth translates from the Ancient Greek word Aletheia (ἀλήθεια) which meant “unconcealed”—a nearly perfect adjective for digitally native, open-source money. For these reasons, Bitcoin is the truth that will bring an end to the counterfeiting of money." - Breedlove
"By saving Bitcoin, you are increasing the purchasing power of all other individuals holding Bitcoin around the world. By holding public equities and bonds, you’re perpetually funding the largest corporations and largest governments. It’s an easy choice. Fund the people." - Joe Burnett
As I said so often. Bitcoin is financial inclusion and financial empowerment. Our current system consolidates power, evident in the 1% owning 43% of global wealth. Bitcoin is promoting inclusivity with its 2.7 billion unbanked potential users worldwide.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡:
Before I start this Weekly Recap - Christmas special I want to wish you, my amazing Crypto Friday follower, a Merry Christmas! Your support has been the greatest gift of all. May your day be filled with joy, laughter, love, and the magic of Christmas. Best Wishes!
➡️For the Dutch plebs, please have a look at the following thread:
"We all know Bitcoin is dead but the #noderunners are snowballing into 2024! In honor to my frens, brothers, sisters, and fam a thread to reflect on 2023.."
https://twitter.com/onthebrinkie/status/1737454169613636004
https://twitter.com/onthebrinkie/status/1737454363944116558
The only thing that I can say: What a thread! I'm proud to be a part of this group. On to 2024!
Noderunners!
➡️Bitcoin leaves the rest of the crypto market behind - Financial Times
There is no second best…the narrative is shifting.
➡️Explain Bitcoin to your relative in 55 seconds this Christmas.
https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1739103861971763403
➡️Bitcoin Price on Christmas Day:
https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1739246752115347943
➡️https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1736755061127020794
Business ware will bring more glory to Bitcoin than any regulation or regulators. Have you noticed how Bitcoin just keeps getting more and more traction and attention? Both from mainstream media, universities, and regulators, but also the financial big boys. This ad is in anticipation of the Bitcoin ETFs and is a great example. There is NO WAY an ETF won't happen. They (top dogs) are so confident they released an ad.
Fasten your seatbells.
➡️ FOX Business confirmed "the date for final amendments to all" spot Bitcoin ETFs is December 29th. SEC has told issuers that applications that are fully finished and filed by Friday will be considered in the first wave."
➡️ New Record Bitcoin Hashrate 520,000,000,000,000,000,000x Hashes Per Second.
Let the hash ware begin. Hashrate increasing at this rate indicates a controlling government is expending resources on Bitcoin mining. If I had to guess why Bitcoin's hash rate is going bonkers.
Nonetheless, all I see is Bitcoin's robustness. Miner fee revenue is near an all-time high, and so are hashrate and Difficulty. Bitcoin is as safe, secure, and sound as it has ever been. Bitcoin's security and resilience are unmatched! If you have no clue what I just said.. send me a DM or comment below, and I will send you some study material.
➡️https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1739137817731530819
➡️ Last week I wrote a bit on Elizabeth Warren: 'US Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces bill to crack down on crypto and Warren adds 5 new Senators as co-sponsors to The Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2023.'
Elizabeth Warren and a few eager politicians want to *ban* people from owning or using Bitcoin. Your Brain is an "unhosted wallet" according to Warren and she wants to ban it! Meanwhile, Blackrock, Invesco, Fidelity, et al. want to make investing in Bitcoin easy for anyone by listing it on public market exchanges.
Who do you think wins this one?
Oh, by the way, a co-sponsor of the bill was the American Bankers Association. They helped write the bill. Classic!
➡️Argentina to allow contracts to be agreed in Bitcoin. President Javier Milei says "Bitcoin can eliminate the central bank" Legal tender next? He repealed forced legal tender and legalized currency competition. Not every country has to make Bitcoin legal tender like El Salvador. Each country will have its own unique path, and all roads lead to Bitcoin.
➡️ "Over 70% of all Bitcoin hasn't moved in the past year. HODLERs certainly aren't selling their Bitcoin to buy Christmas presents this year." - CoinBeast
➡️ Russian BitCluster to build a 120 MW Bitcoin mining facility in Ethiopia, aiming to turn the country into a global mining hub.
➡️ SEC tells spot Bitcoin ETF applicants to update submissions by December 29 if they want to be approved in the first wave - Reuters
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
Week ahead: The markets are wrapping up a busy 2023 with a quiet week.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility."
"Banks borrowed a record amount from the Federal Reserve’s newest backstop facility in the most recent week as increasing wagers on interest-rate cuts made it a more attractive choice.
Data from the Fed showed an all-time high of $131 billion in borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program, or BTFP, in the week through Dec. 20. That compares to a previous record of $124 billion, reached in the week ended Dec. 13."
Regulatory Arbitrage. Arbitraging the Fed itself. No risk. Absolute clown show. Classic bank mindset - making money at the expense of the public.
source: https://archive.ph/xhUg5
🌍Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽 As mentioned in the Bitcoin News segment, President Javier Milei says "Bitcoin can eliminate the central bank" Legal tender next? He repealed forced legal tender and legalized currency competition.
During his campaign, he promised to abandon the Peso and will focus on becoming 'dollarize'. It's free competition among currencies, people will have to choose. I think Milei has a plan to go beyond the god-damned Dollar, but can't talk about it yet for obvious reasons. Good thing people are free to use Bitcoin. We'll see which currency the market demands...eventually.
https://twitter.com/steve_hanke/status/1738333600590803109
I will quote Lyn Alden and Alex Gladstein for more in-depth
Lyn Alden: "Whenever a country dollarizes, it increases demand for dollars and thus boosts the United States’ ability to print money and run deficits with mitigated inflation. They subsidize us, in other words. That’s the part about dollarization that doesn’t get said out loud too often.
There are about 160 currencies, and each of which is a centralized ledger. When you think about it, the fact that when a country’s currency fails, they must rely on the biggest country’s currency, is rather antiquated tech. If only there was a decentralized ledger alternative."
Alex Gladstein: "The peso system is truly awful and of course, its users should have dollar access (it’s only fair) — but if Argentina dollarizes it cedes a lot of power to the US and subsidizes our way of life This is precisely why we need a neutral apolitical decentralized global currency."
Remember most of the world runs on IOUs for dollars… not actual dollars. Deposits in banks are not actual dollars but claims for them. Importantly, the system considers IOUs for dollars as ‘money good’ as the actual cash in your hand.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard/status/1739300775430660504
👉🏽"For all the technical analysts out there: The S&P 500 is now trading with a DAILY RSI of ~81, by far the most overbought level in years. The last time the daily RSI was at 81+? On September 2nd, 2020 the day before the S&P 500 fell 11% in 3 weeks. Since the October 27th low, the S&P 500 is up 16% in 36 trading days. Pullbacks have become nonexistent in this market." - TKL
👉🏽"The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for 35% of the ENTIRE index. The last time we saw this level of concentration? In 2001 when the Dot-com bubble busted. The "Magnificent 7" are now approaching +100% for 2023. Meanwhile, the remaining 493 stocks are still up less than 10%. All while the S&P 500 is up a massive 23% because of these 10 technology stocks. Truly a historic time for markets." - TKL
To put it down in figures:
2023 Returns...
Magnificent Seven: 75%
S&P 500: +23%
S&P 493 (excluding Mag 7): +12%
Personally, I think this dominance will only grow in 2024.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1736646018588942693
Nothing really special. We, here in Europe, are the world leaders in regulations and we just had a decade-long, ultra-low interest rates in Europe that created many zombie businesses.
👉🏽 "40% of all student loan holders failed to make payments when they resumed in October. This means that 8.8 million out of 22 million borrowers missed student loan payments. Currently, we have a record $1.6 trillion of outstanding student loans. The average payment is ~$500/month and comes at a time with record low levels of affordability."- TKL
👉🏽"The new IMF term for the plateauing of trade openness since the financial crisis is "slowbalization".
(foto)
Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/02/08/charting-globalizations-turn-to-slowbalization-after-global-financial-crisis
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1737110229597458591
I kid you not! 12 days apart!
👉🏽 "On July 7, 1971, Paul Volcker arrived in The Netherlands to tell then President of the Dutch central bank, Jelle Zijlstra, to cancel a request for converting 250 million dollars into gold. Zijlstra said he would not cancel the request because he only held on to dollars as working stock, to which Volcker said: “You are rocking the boat.” Zijlstra replied that if a conversion of 250 million dollars rocks the boat, that boat has already sunk. On August 15, 1971, the US suspended dollar conversion into gold altogether." - JanGold
For your information: Paul Volcker was an American economist who served as the 12th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. BUT!!
Appointed by the Nixon Administration, Volcker served as undersecretary of the Treasury for international monetary affairs from 1969 to 1974.
You could say this was the day the dollar became worthless. Zijlstra & Volcker had a historic behind-the-scenes look at the chaos just before America betrayed the world post-WWII monetary system by eventually introducing inside money instead (treasuries) of outside money (gold). By doing that the current US dollar fiat standard emerges.
Dutch rocked the both first...just to give you some context:
"At $42 an ounce, $250M works out to 5.9M ounces of gold. Out of a supposed 252M stockpile. Jelle was right, if removing 2% of the US's gold was such a problem, then the problem was much larger than advertised."
After that France, Switzerland, and the UK did the same. France and Switzerland converted 200mill and 50mill respectively at that time. Which ultimately led to the historical moment on the 15th of Augustus, 1971. The US feared a run on the gold...
US President Richard Nixon completely stopped dollar convertibility to gold, "temporarily" he said. It has been 50+ years since the meaning of the word "temporarily" has been converted to "never".
Richard Nixon's decision to suspend gold convertibility of the dollar on August 15, 1971, resulted in the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
The international monetary and financial order has been a criminal scam for a very long time. Gold bugs were right, but their timing was way off.
Look at the damage of that scam: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Bitcoin opt-out!
Imagine a future where central banks are replaced by national Bitcoin mining operations. A bold blend of tech and economics!
I quote Luke Gromen: "The use case of Bitcoin is political freedom & the preservation of democratic values. Simply put, once you control the money, voting becomes irrelevant. That this is not immediately obvious & valued to many policymakers should be an important signpost (red flag?) in and of itself."
I will say it again. Bitcoin offers an opt-out from the financial system. When you, for the love of god, still decide to buy a Bitcoin ETF...you are selling this valuable option and paying a fee to do so. Holding your own Bitcoin is key in the upcoming years/decades.
"Afraid of the government banning Bitcoin? The US government banned ownership of gold in 1933 when it was $20 an ounce Gold is $1800 an ounce now, up 90X since it was banned. Stack sats & hold your keys. They can't take your BTC if you hold it yourself."
https://twitter.com/RealSpikeCohen/status/1738696879917957561
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
In the following interview/podcast 'What Bitcoin Did - WBD751" you will learn:
- Currency devaluation's impact on Malawian people
- Globalisation, debt & manipulation
- Economic dependence & exploitation in Africa
- Bitcoin: empowerment & energy independence
It is a great discussion of the global economic structure and how it impacts non-dollarized economies.
"If Bitcoin becomes a bigger part of the global economy we take this weapon away from states…then they’re going to have to look at the other options…if they try to impose those things, that will probably lead to their downfall." - @gladstein WBD751
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/bitcoin-a-30000ft-view
or watch it on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sY19BRtYuc
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats
https://image.nostr.build/f10cbfbe91f6aecb14ac41a3b6ff6e884928e8a1880b4361994b4f1d55f3c279.png

2023-12-26 14:47:12

Greg Foss: “All of your “assets” are melting ice cubes denominated in #bitcoin .”
#BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/0fdbe624c7816e6c770c59d8ae952b3c1d673d425ebf55fc41e0925eedb0e697.jpg

2023-12-24 11:25:00

Merry xmas.
I wish you a wonderful time with your loved one. 🎄
Wishing you a joyful Bitmas, may the magic internet money bring your life happiness.
#MerryChristmasEve #BTC #Bitcoin #zap🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://video.nostr.build/1272f9d90580ca182b09cd8a82402a2093621577b0e4e5bd0beb1ca616538f17.mp4

2023-12-24 11:04:06

- reply

GM! Merry Christmas 🎄🎁🧡💜

2023-12-23 22:43:22

New Record Bitcoin Hashrate 🔥
510,000,000,000,000,000,000x
Hashes Per Second
Proof of work!🧡
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
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My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The @Relai 🇨🇭 app is especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (guide) and video for more info.
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node... be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.
Do you want to know more about this? Check out my daily stories on Instagram. (yeah I know IG sucks🥴)
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it!🧡
If you have any questions, let me know in the comments or send me a DM!⬇️
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Like my content?🙏🏽
Please consider dropping some sats, following, comment✅
⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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#zap 🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption #proofofwork https://image.nostr.build/f57bf3c1441934291ee2a5a9c153029dc1cdd20fcc1060fb2110ca7bea107c3b.jpg

2023-12-18 20:12:31

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"A control structure disguised as a free market will do everything in its power to retain control. and... it gets stronger, by the division of you within it. All you have to do is stop playing by its rules. Bitcoin"- Jeff Booth
As I said so often. Bitcoin is financial inclusion and financial empowerment. Our current system consolidates power, evident in the 1% owning 43% of global wealth. Bitcoin is promoting inclusivity with its 2.7 billion unbanked potential users worldwide.
🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ FASB has officially adopted Fair Value Accounting for Bitcoin for fiscal years beginning after Dec 15, 2024. This upgrade to accounting standards will facilitate the adoption of $BTC as a treasury reserve asset by corporations worldwide.
Now why is this huge? Previously companies could only value their bitcoin at the lowest price since they bought it, which meant they would have to record losses, but not the gains when the price recovered. This is an amazing step in the adoption process. This move by FASB is a landmark decision in the accounting treatment of Bitcoin. The tide is turning for Bitcoin. Slowly, then suddenly.
Source: https://www.fasb.org/page/getarticle?uid=fasb_Media_Advisory_12-13-23
For those who want more context and a super simple explanation, here's a thread all about it from last year:
https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1592228100934438913
Or ELID (Explain like I’m degenerate)
"If you YOLO’d your company’s bag into Bitcoin, your balance sheet would only reflect the price at its most REKT. Thanks to the new rules, if Bitcoin pumps you can reflect the ACTUAL price (fair value), and show your shareholder what a Chad you are." - @DAzaraf
Michael @saylor said this one year ago:
These 3 catalysts will take Bitcoin to $5 million:
1. Spot ETF approval
2. Traditional bank custody of Bitcoin
3. Fair value accounting rules from FASB
It seems like we are getting the first two fairly soon and the third one in 2025. Please forget the price (5 million), it's about how the network is growing and how the network getting more and more mature. Bullish!
➡️ In the face of a bear market, Bitcoin's transaction volume share tells a story of unwavering adoption across the globe. Western economies don't dictate its fate. As economic challenges mount worldwide, Bitcoin shines as a beacon, driving its adoption ever upward. If the West stops Bitcoin nothing changes for Westerners. It’s different in the Global South. Bitcoin can not be stopped there. The people won’t allow anything to stop it. And it’s only getting stronger." - Sooly
Bitcoin is the only asset that anyone in the world can hold.
(picture - chainanlysis)
➡️ "BlackRock has amended its Bitcoin ETF structure to make it easier for Wall Street banks like Goldman and JP Morgan to own Bitcoin — even though regulations prevent banks from holding Bitcoin directly. This model is designed to improve investor protection and reduce transaction costs, both key SEC requirements for approval." - Bitcoin Archive
➡️ The narrative amongst the institutional and leftward-leaning is changing: the ESG criticisms are moot, and Bitcoin is a force for good.
Last week the Financial Times published its first cautiously pro-Bitcoin ESG article.
If they are writing pro-bitcoin ESG material it’s because the decision makers on high have finally allowed it.
Funny isn't it how the narrative has shifted a complete 180? Ow well, let's have a look at a 'decision maker':
https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1734992631535386766
➡️ Last week Bitcoin price closed UP 8 weeks in a row for the first time since 2017.
Last week I wrote the following:
"If you have a Ledger you might want to consider another hardware wallet, you should at least stop using Ledger Live and switch to Sparrow Wallet.
When it comes to privacy and potential downsides of Ledger in the future, I would not recommend Ledger anymore.
In summary / Red flags for Ledger:
User data leaked (3rd party - supplier got hacked). Now people are being scammed or harassed by phone. It's not entirely Ledger's fault, but still very unpleasant.
Marketing/gear: Caps and chains to hang or store your ledger in. In my opinion, it makes no sense for a company, especially a hardware company, to sell such merchandise. It goes against the ethos of Bitcoin/Cypherpunks regarding privacy.
Closed source - in short, preferably you want a hardware wallet that is open source. Like the hardware wallets mentioned below.
Recovery service is perhaps my biggest concern. Ledger can/does possess your private key. This could, for example, be given away if a government were to intervene. Or if a server at Ledger were to be hacked, your private key could (theoretically) be stolen."
This week we learned the following.
"Ledger Connect Kit Breach: Hacker Siphons $484K, Company Rolls Out Version 1.1.8
The unknown attacker that compromised Ledger’s Connect Kit Library has reportedly siphoned $484,000 from wallets, according to the on-chain intelligence firm Lookonchain. Ledger disclosed a former employee fell victim to a phishing attack and the attacker gained access to the Ledger Connectkit Library and uploaded a malicious bug." -BitcoinNews
If you want to learn more on this matter: https://twitter.com/MatthewLilley/status/1735285684070461534
Ledger has learned nothing about opsec from multiple breaches. At this point, I don't think anyone should in good conscience recommend their hardware or use their libraries. What happened?
I bet 80% of Ddefi and blockchain projects have the same level of opsec or worse than Ledger. They have yet to be attacked.
That's why I get mad that so-called influencers are promoting Ethereum and calling DApps a great feature.
Picture (story)
These affiliate-larping individuals are in my opinion more harmful to the space than hacks.
I will quote @npub1az9…m8y8 (CEO Coldcard):
"It's not just Ledger; any client software that maintains 1,000s of coins will have the same problem. It's just too much bloat to maintain and secure. Put your precious bitcoin on COLDCARD and your altcoins stay on the exchanges, where you doing the speculation anyways."
So what about Trezor? "IMO That's just virtue signaling, the codebase still has all the shitcoins to be reviewed and share resources, and the desktop client has all the shitcoins in it."
Which hardware then?
Blockstream Jade for affordability, Bitbox02 (Bitcoin only or the multi-edition if you have shitcoins...but check the above statement), Foundation Passport for user-friendliness, and Seedsigner for trustlessness. You might want to drop the Coldcard in the mix, but one trade of... closed sourced.
Order your Jade here: https://bitcoinbrabant.com/product/blockstream-jade-2/
Order your BitBox 02 Bitcoin Only here: https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/?ref=IYjAmzKEXw
But when it comes to privacy and potential downsides of Ledger in the future, I would not recommend Ledger.
(Picture Ledger)
➡️ "Ledger and other wallets offer a desktop or mobile companion app. (Ledger + Ledger Live) I would recommend using an open-source hardware wallet in combination with the use of Sparrow, Electum, Nunchuk, and other clients. By doing that you increase security and privacy incentives by splitting this into two vendors." -NVK
➡️ US Senator Elizabeth Warren introduces bill to crack down on crypto and Warren adds 5 new Senators as co-sponsors to The Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act of 2023.
A reminder that Elizabeth Warren is one of the worst legislators of all time Lifetime stats for Warren Bills:
- 305 introduced, 0 became law
- 1766 Co-sponsored, 45 became law
Warren sponsored:
36 bills in the 118th Congress (2023-24). 0 passed.
103 bills in the 117th Congress (2021-22). 0 passed.
98 bills in the 116th Congress (2019-20). 0 passed.
80 bills in the 115th Congress (2017-18). 0 passed.
27 bills in the 114th Congress. (2015-16). 0 passed.
She’s just a loud-mouthed engagement-bait troll.
Thank god Elizabeth Warren sucks at her job
https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1734871663450226762
They are scared because of this:
https://twitter.com/thomas_fahrer/status/1734519981675839940
➡️ "Bitcoin is pseudonymous and permissionless. The protocol does not know the number of users, only the number of addresses. This makes all claims relating to concentrated ownership fundamentally flawed."- Anil
(picture Anil)
➡️ Valkyrie CIO Steve McClurg on the spot Bitcoin ETF: "We know for a fact that insurance companies and pension funds are looking at Bitcoin as an investment"
➡️ On the 15th of December Marathon broke their own record and mined 125.8 Bitcoin (worth ~$5.3M) in the last 24 hours.
➡️ Former CEO of Google, Eric Schmidt on Bitcoin:
"Bitcoin is a remarkable cryptographic achievement, and the ability to create something that is not duplicable in the digital world has enormous value"
"As Bitcoin network grows the value of Bitcoin grows. As people move into Bitcoin for payments and receipts they stop using US Dollar, Euros, and Chinese Yuan which in the long-term devalues these currencies” - Andrew Howard
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽Week ahead: In the US we have consumer confidence, PCE deflator, and new/existing home sales. In Europe, it’s the Euro Area consumer confidence, German IFO survey, UK CPI, and retail sales. In Asia we have the BOJ meeting, and Japan CPI.
👉🏽 3,200 venture-backed U.S companies have gone out of business in 2023 Collectively they raised $27.2B in venture funding.
👉🏽The stock market is near all-time highs with:
1. Core inflation is still at 4%, double the Fed's target
2. The Fed beginning to backtrack on its "pivot"
3. Markets expecting 6-8 rate CUTS in 2024 while the Fed expects 3
4. The $VIX is trading at its lowest since 2020
5. US interest expense on track to top $1 trillion in 2024
The stock market seems to be disconnected from the economy and reality. Remember, the financial economy and the real economy are two different beasts.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1736397634925949114
What do we learn from this?
1. $1.45B in legal fees
2. Bankruptcy lawyers are the real criminals. the greatest legal scam on record.
3. FFS! Please self custody your Bitcoin, this is the way!
🏦Banks:
👉🏽no news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Last week the Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged! Significantly lower inflation forecast!
SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (12/13/23):
1. Fed leaves rates unchanged for third straight meeting
2. Fed says the growth of the economy "has slowed" since Q3 2023
3. Most Fed officials see interest rate cuts in 2024
4. Median projection shows 3 rate cuts in 2024
5. Fed sees 4.1% unemployment by the end of 2024
6. The Fed sees US GDP growth at 2.6% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024.
The market is pricing in double the number of rate cuts in 2024 than the Fed projects.
Here you can find a more in-depth summary of Powell's speech: https://twitter.com/macro_dose/status/1735049579425370605
The Fed admitted they're going to cut. They blinked and said the silent part out loud, right?
The first comment after the blackout ended was by NY Fed President Williams. He said the Fed is NOT talking about rate cuts now. This is the exact OPPOSITE of what Powell said on Wednesday. To make it even more funnier. Fed member Bostic sees only 2 rate CUTS in 2024 and expects cuts to begin in the third quarter. This comes just hours after NY Fed President Williams said the Fed "isn't really discussing rate cuts."
The Fed messed up.
What is a Fed blackout? It's a period of time around Fed meetings where Fed members are restricted in speaking about Fed policy. This is designed to limit conflicting messages and market confusion around Fed meetings. The blackout period ended yesterday at midnight. (15th of December)
Please have a look at the following tweets. It will show you how the global base ledger is managed in the 21st century.
https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1735673431662739593
https://twitter.com/WalkerAmerica/status/1735060271712858187
If you are lazy and not checking the links above, to sum it up:
"The Fed Since November 1st:
1. Nov. 1: Getting inflation to 2% "has a long way to go"
2. Nov. 21: "No indication of rate cuts at last meeting"
3. Dec. 1: Talks about rate cuts are "premature"
4. Dec. 1: "We are prepared to tighten policy further" if needed
5. Dec. 13: Rates have peaked, 3 rate cuts coming in 2024
6. Dec. 15: Fed "isn't really talking about rate cuts"
I thought the Fed could not embarrass themselves anymore. Yet they keep surprising me.
I hope we will get a global base ledger like this:
(picture Bitcoin Insurance Schedule)
👉🏽"The current gap between the "price" and "value" of many things in many minds is at/near the widest in history.
For example, if $AAPL dropped by 50% it would be still worth more than the entire German or French market. That’s just one company out of many vs. former European heavyweight countries. The failed experiment called Euro makes out 57% of DXY."
https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1735711892213997850
Compared to before the pandemic, real wages in Germany have fallen by 7.2%, in Italy even by 9.1%. In comparison, real wages in the US have grown by 2.8% (over q3-2019/q3-2023).
👉🏽 President @JMilei of Argentina signed an executive order on his first day in office to cut 21 government departments down to 9. Reducing bureaucracy and government is the model to succeed as a society. Smaller governments are better for growth, liberty, and overall well-being.
His official signature in the inauguration book says: ''VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO'' English translation: "Long Live F*cking Freedom"
" Argentina's President Javier Milei announces currency devaluation by 54% and spending cuts in an effort to revive the economy. The new exchange rate has been adjusted to 800 Argentine Pesos per US dollar. Spending cuts include suspending public works, cutting subsidies on transport and energy sectors, and more. Their economy minister said Argentina has an “addiction” to fiscal deficits." - TKL
https://twitter.com/samcallah/status/1734717431711404280
👉🏽"Central banks are on pace to buy over 1,000 tons of gold in 2023. This would be the second-ever year with 1,000+ tons purchased with 2022 being the first. Purchases of gold are 2.5X larger than purchases in 2021 and 4X larger than purchases in 2020. Currently, central banks hold just 20% of their reserves in gold. Historically speaking, central banks hold ~40% of their reserves in gold on average. Are central banks bracing for a massive gold-buying spree?" - TKL
Bitcoin is the best protection from the falling purchasing power of the dollar, (and every other fiat currency), ongoing for 110 years and likely to continue. Central banks seem to be betting on this trend continuing and, perhaps, accelerating.
(picture gold)
There is no alternative. With US debt-to-GDP at 985 today and on pace to triple by 2050. Not my words, but by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office). (picture CBO)
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1736575595645927464
The US added another $2.6 trillion of debt between June 2023 and December 2023. $31.4 trillion to $34 trillion now. The rate of growth in the US national debt is accelerating into a hockey stick chart and nobody in Washington DC is even talking about it.
And some fin-influencers are still trying to downplay this? The money in your bank account is losing its value, FAST!
"While you were sleeping, the US added $12 billion to the national debt. A person making $100k per year and paying zero taxes would have to work for 120,000 years to reach $12 billion. And they can print it with a snap of their fingers.
Opt out: Bitcoin"- Mitchell
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift.
I want to share this episode of Bitcoin Fundamentals where @PrestonPysh and @sebbunney discuss 'The Hidden Cost of Money,' exploring money's deep impact on society, politics, and mental health in a revealing interview.
I just listened to this for the second time.
I can say hands down that this was the best explanation of current economics, the monetary system, and our overall societal situation I have yet heard and the fact that it is presented in a way that is understandable to almost all makes it even more valuable. Seb Bunney is very good at making Bitcoin easy to understand, and how Bitcoin changes everything!
https://link.chtbl.com/BTC160
or watch it on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoxqSbwWx-c
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
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Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats. #zap 🧡 #weeklyrecap #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats
https://void.cat/d/UH5NHmsdgnp3SYzheSRBsx.webp
https://void.cat/d/KKUwtzYWKiKxTQsgMHKmeJ.webp
https://void.cat/d/RBdiyk3ZcvbmVKKzKTbbVA.webp
https://void.cat/d/6SvwTJ94p5KSy5gEPykkLR.webp

2023-12-17 13:05:11

- reply

Thanks mate!🧡

2023-12-16 22:08:23

Great day!
1. New merchant on our list. This morning I had a meeting with a business owner /entrepreneur here in Zwolle. Starting from early January, it will also be possible to pay with Bitcoin.
2. Translated my Peach review from 🇳🇱➡️🇬🇧: https://cryptofriday.eu/index.php/2023/12/16/review-peach-bitcoin-buying-non-kyc-bitcoin/
3. And finally I wrote and published a new Relai guide: how to setup & use @npub1sqz…vk7v
https://cryptofriday.eu/index.php/2023/12/16/relai-bitcoin-investment-app-step-by-step-guide-english/
Proof of work🧡😏
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
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My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The @Relai 🇨🇭 app is especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (guide) and video for more info.
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node... be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.
Do you want to know more about this? Check out my daily stories on Instagram. (yeah I know IG sucks🥴)
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it!🧡
If you have any questions, let me know in the comments or send me a DM!⬇️
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
Like my content?🙏🏽
Please consider dropping some sats, following, comment✅
⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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#zap 🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/cd8d8e35dec1b45f263bb9ae273bcc99eb5cb99b9eb47dc30ada40fadb7f73c6.jpg

2023-12-11 19:26:55

🧠Quote(s) of the week:
"Here’s the question you must ask yourself: Do you trust a group of unelected, corrupt old central bankers to completely control the value of your money? That’s fiat. Or do you trust energy, math, and the free market? That’s Bitcoin" - Walker
"No one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $1 ever again. That ship has sailed.
No one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $10 ever again. That ship has sailed.
No one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $100 ever again. That ship has sailed.
No one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $1,000 ever again. That ship has sailed.
No one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $10,000 ever again. That ship has sailed.
How much longer before no one will exchange their Bitcoin for less than $100,000 ever again? That ship will soon sail." - Wicked
🧡Bitcoin news:
➡️ "El Salvador, in partnership with Tether, launches its “Freedom Visa” program that will offer residency and a pathway to citizenship for investors who commit $1 million in Bitcoin or USDT.
This program, limited to 1,000 participants yearly, aims to attract wealthy individuals by offering residency and eventual citizenship in exchange for their investment. This follows El Salvador's decision to make Bitcoin legal tender in 2021.
The initiative, seen as a significant opportunity for investors to contribute to El Salvador's future, requires a substantial investment for citizenship eligibility. Adriana Mira, the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, emphasizes the program's potential to shape the nation's future. The program is expected to generate around $1 billion annually and has Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, as a technology partner. The high investment threshold has not deterred interest, with strong demand reported for the program." h/t Scott Melker
Of course, this is a bit expensive for a new passport haha, but make no mistake. Game theory is at play here. The future competition over top talent / wealthy entrepreneurs will be fascinating to watch unfold.
➡️ Decentralized Bitcoin exchange Bisq sees a significant increase in Exchange Trade Volume.
Love to see it!
➡️ Bitcoin has surged 166% since the European Central Bank said it was on the 'road to irrelevance'
➡️The New Hampshire Commission on Nuclear Energy produces a report on “Next-Generation Nuclear Reactor Technology” which mentions Bitcoin over 40 times.
Full report available at the commission website. Report: https://nuclearnh.energy/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NH-Nuclear-Study-Commission-2023-Final-Report.pdf
➡️Mining Stocks Year-to-Date: Bitfarms $BITF: +382% Iris $IREN: +377% CleanSpark $CLSK: +354% Marathon $MARA: +349% Riot $RIOT: +339% Hive $HIVE: +173% Hut8 $HUT: +123% $BTC: +161% (data: Yahoo Finance)
➡️ https://twitter.com/rektbuildr/status/1732542258698694875
If you have a Ledger you might want to consider another hardware wallet, you should at least stop using Ledger Live and switch to Sparrow Wallet.
When it comes to privacy and potential downsides of Ledger in the future, I would not recommend Ledger anymore.
In summary / Red flags for Ledger:
User data leaked (3rd party - supplier got hacked). Now people are being scammed or harassed by phone. It's not entirely Ledger's fault, but still very unpleasant.
Marketing/gear: Caps and chains to hang or store your ledger in. In my opinion, it makes no sense for a company, especially a hardware company, to sell such merchandise. It goes against the ethos of Bitcoin/Cypherpunks regarding privacy.
Closed source - in short, you preferably want a hardware wallet that is open source. Like the hardware wallets mentioned below.
Recovery service is perhaps my biggest concern. Ledger can/does possess your private key. This could, for example, be given away if a government were to intervene. Or if a server at Ledger were to be hacked, your private key could (theoretically) be stolen.
Which hardware then?
Blockstream Jade for affordability, Bitbox02 (Bitcoin only or the multi-edition if you have shitcoins), Foundation Passport for user-friendliness, Seedsigner for trustlessness.
Order your Jade here: https://bitcoinbrabant.com/product/blockstream-jade-2/
Order your BitBox 02 Bitcoin Only here: https://bitbox.swiss/bitbox02/?ref=IYjAmzKEXw
But when it comes to privacy and potential downsides of Ledger in the future, I would not recommend Ledger anymore.
Great reply by BitBox:
https://twitter.com/BitBoxSwiss/status/1733263812311064868
➡️ The Financial Times says "Everything has been thrown at Bitcoin and it’s held up. Whether you like it or not, Bitcoin going to command a place in portfolios"
Bloomberg, Aaron Brown a former head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management, says "Even skeptical investors should accept it’s safer to have a small allocation to Bitcoin than to ignore it".
Hello, narrative shift!
➡️ The VanEck spot Bitcoin ETF ticker will be $HODL. "VanEck's bitcoin ETF ticker will be $HODL.. a departure from the more boring Boomer-y choices from BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity. Who knows though, maybe smart to differentiate here. Plus, VanEck specializes in niche and has a solid retail base." - Eric Balchunas
Talking about VanEck, they just released their 15 predictions for 2024:
"The US recession will finally arrive, but so will the first spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over $2.4B may flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to support Bitcoin’s price."
➡️$4.5 trillion Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, says owning a little Bitcoin "could go a long way."
Foto
Owning 0 Bitcoin is irresponsible. The writing is on the wall.
A couple of days later Jurrien dropped another great Bitcoin thesis:
https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1732847992183349706
Look at the following chart…and connect the dots.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1733178059602231303
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1733180221048713614
If you want to read the full report; https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/default/files/documents/valuing-bitcoin-report.pdf
➡️Cathie Wood says a Bitcoin ETF is the 'final seal of approval' for institutions, that will drive the price higher for "5 to 10 years".
➡️Bitcoin mining company Riot Blockchain acquires 66,560 ASICs from MicroBT for a staggering $290.5M, averaging around $4,360 per machine
➡️Jack Dorsey / BitKey launched their new hardware wallet: https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1732803467775795220
"We’re excited to announce people in 95+ countries can now pre-order Bitkey! Bitkey is a self-custody bitcoin wallet with an app to send on the go, hardware to protect your savings, and recovery tools in case you lose your phone, or hardware, or both."
The following threads are important to read before you decide to buy the Bitkey:
"Mainly concerned here that people won't grasp that a U.S. publicly traded company will get 100% visibility into their transactions whenever Bitkey is involved. Initial thoughts below:
Pros:
1. Interesting and well-thought-out backup architecture (with major con below) that is very detailed and publicly published (https://bitkey.build/content/files/2023/11/Bitkey-Recovery-Features.pdf…)
2. Gets many more people thinking about self-custody in Bitcoin
Cons:
1. Not open source software/hardware
2. No clear commitment to open-source software/hardware made
3. Block gets 100% visibility into all transactions due to 2-of-3 multi-sig architecture
4. No ability to verify addresses or amounts (no screen)
5. Still $150 + shipping w/o screen" - SethforPrivacy
Please also read a well-thought-out thread on their screen-less architecture by Zach Herbert that is worth a read for broader context:
https://twitter.com/zachherbert/status/1674532618644144128
For me it sounds like moving it to BitKey won't be that big of an improvement.
I think @Bitkeyofficial is positioning itself as an entry-level self-custodial option for customers who don't care about their privacy. They just want ease of use.
➡️Companies in Japan would no longer have to pay tax on unrealized cryptocurrency gains if they hold on to the digital assets under a proposal being discussed by the country's ruling coalition.
Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Cryptocurrencies/Japan-weighs-ending-tax-on-some-corporate-crypto-holdings
"People in this space have been talking about this game theory playing out (no tax on gains) for nearly a decade at this point. Tick Tock Next Block" Preston Pysh
I love the game-theory angle. Game theory is the probability of an outcome given human behavior. We are more primal than we think and therefore quite predictable. That would accelerate adoption dramatically. I would use Bitcoin as much as possible if I didn’t have to worry about capital gains tax.
➡️The following article by Preston Pysh is especially for my US followers, but make no mistake Europe/World you can learn from this.
This article by Preston Pysh is an insanely comprehensive takedown of FinCEN's recent Patriot Act anti-privacy reporting requirements proposal:
https://egodeath.capital/blog/fincen-may-be-violating-your-rights-bitcoin
Context: Recently the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has proposed FINCEN-2023-00016. This robust policy proposal is a gross overreach of your freedoms as an American, and this analysis intends to document where, how, and what you do about it.
This article clearly explains 1) what this repressive action by the state means to you and 2) how to easily add your voice to stop it.
➡️ JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he would "close down" Bitcoin if he were the government. "The only true use case for it is criminals, drug traffickers, money laundering, tax avoidance."
Watch my response on here:
note1wylqln56cxrjzydfzrcddecqsqmkjtjgw57frue6mhsayftrwrmq7qhuy4
If you are too lazy to watch the clip ;)
Context: JPMorgan Chase's parent company is the second most penalized financial institution with close to $40 Billion in fines for 272 violations since 2000. Fines for securities abuses, cheating worker pay, anti-competitive practices, currency manipulation, predatory lending practices, and gross misconduct. They are the criminals and they have no moral authority to stand on when it comes to Bitcoin.
I quote Guy Swann: In other words: “Anyone who uses a tool that I don’t have control and total surveillance of, is de facto committing a crime.” “All tech that works without me as a gatekeeper should be illegal.” Bitcoin exists to protect us from these exact sorts of sociopaths."
Oh by the way: Jamie Dimon (Oct 17, 2017): "When I made that stupid statement... called [Bitcoin] a fraud, my daughter sent me an email saying, 'Dad, I own 2 bitcoins.'" Jamie wants to implicate his own daughter as a criminal because he's embarrassed she has outperformed him by nearly 900%"
➡️BlackRock receives $100K as “seed capital” for its spot Bitcoin ETF, selling 4K shares at a per-share price of $25.00. A flood of money will pour in!
➡️ This is a horrendous level of centralization within the proposed Bitcoin ETFs. It seems Fidelity is the only one doing it right.
(see picture)
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽Week ahead: In the US, the highlights will be CPI, retail sales, and industrial production data, along with the final FOMC meeting of the year. In Europe, we have industrial production data and the ECB and BOE meetings. In Asia we have China monthly activity data, the Japan Tankan report, India industrial production and CPI data, and central bank meetings in Taiwan and the Philippines.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽"UNREALIZED losses US Banks Up 22% to USD 683.9 billion in Q3! We'll need BTFP 2 soon, Jerome. Let's just change it to the Bank Forever Funding Program (BFFP) to make things simpler." This was the text from last week's weekly recap, let's have a look at the current state of unrealized losses:
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1733196154643358155
The BTFP is scheduled to end on March 11, 2024, FYI, this won't end, they will just extend the program.
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
👉🏽Ever widening wealth inequality on steroids: Since 2000: 132,000 households have added $14 trillion in total wealth while 66,000,000 households have added $2.5 trillion in total wealth. Since Covid $5 trillion went to the top 0.1% while $1.5 trillion went to the bottom 50%.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1732492229715919126
America's retirement problem in a nutshell: 1) too little saved (remember this $107k is a mean, not a median) 2) it's not growing (in nominal terms!) 3) while the cost of living is up over 19%+ since 2020 (according to govt numbers, which likely underreport).
"The result: A decades-long shrinking of the middle class. And nothing, no party, no policy has changed this structural trend. People scream at the right & and the left. Yet the result is always the same. Why? Because the Fed's policies disproportionately benefit the asset owners." - Sven Henrich
I have one word for you: Cantillion Effect.
This will lead to social and political instability/fragmentation which we are already in the midst of. The unfair and accelerating concentration of wealth is breaking the social contract. Now read the first quote at the top of the blog post.
👉🏽 "Job growth in the US labor market is set to turn negative in 2024. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2023, job growth has moved in a straight line lower. Currently, the 3-month moving average of job growth is down to ~200,000. The Fed has maintained the view that weakness in the labor market is likely needed to tame inflation. We expect to see the unemployment rate approaching 5% in 2024." - TKL
👉🏽"Pending home sales just hit their lowest level in history. In October, US pending home sales fell 1.5% putting sales down 6.6% over the last year. This also marks the 23rd STRAIGHT decline in US pending home sales. To put this in perspective, pending home sales are more than 10% BELOW what they were in 2010. They are also ~3% below the pandemic low when the global economy was in lockdown. All mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1994. The housing market is coming to a complete halt." -TKL
No worry! we aren't in a recession and we will have a "soft landing", right? The economy, the real economy is not going to withstand this much longer. "The full effects of the Feds rate hikes are yet to be felt" Jpow
So what can the Fed do...?
👉🏽 Odds of rate cuts beginning as soon as January 2024 are rising quickly. There is now a ~15% chance of rate cuts beginning next month. The base case shows a ~56% chance of rate cuts beginning in March 2024. Markets are currently expecting a total of FIVE 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. Still, the Fed has yet to discuss the possibility of any rate cuts at all. Markets are fully bought into the "Fed pivot." - TKL
(foto)
Oh by the way regarding the soft landing shenanigans:
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1733145538348916875
We have heard this before, right?
Nov 29, 2006: "Fed Chief Optimistic of Soft Landing With Eye on Inflation and Jobs, Bernanke Remains Upbeat"
👉🏽Are we in a bubble? You tell me,..whooozzaaa! QE is a helluva a drug!
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1732781675803734470
👉🏽The U.S. employment diffusion index dropped to 57.8 in November, reaching a new low in over three years. This signifies a decrease in the number of industries experiencing positive job growth
👉🏽The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, above expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, below expectations of 3.9%. This means that the US economy has now added jobs for 35 consecutive months.
👉🏽https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1732860857409806725
This is safe. We are fine.
👉🏽 https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1733525036621758833
Just look at the picture. The money went into the financial system (economy), not the consumer (real economy).
A lot of people are mixing that up. The value of the economy is not based on the PE of stock or the value of stock... above picture and text really puts the debasement (ergo: robbery) of the working class into context. Now look at my first point of this segment.
👉🏽Ray Dalio warns that the United States is on the verge of a sovereign debt crisis, citing weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries.
👉🏽 "According to Apollo, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is on track to hit 200% within the next 15 years. Less than 20 years ago, the debt-to-GDP ratio was just ~50%. The current debt-to-GDP ratio in the US is at 120%, nearly 2.5x what it was before 2008. To put this in perspective, even in World War 2 the debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 106%, below current levels. 2024 will be the first year with over $1 trillion in interest expense." -TKL
To summarize everything discussed above, just have a look at the following tweet.
https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1733535612744216577
👉🏽"One of Germany's main political parties, the CDU, has gone all in on supporting nuclear!! (Article linked here)https://www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/inland/politik/schluss-mit-der-teuer-energie-union-plant-atom-wende-86370820.bild.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp&_x_tr_hist=true
Their demands:
1) Join the (over) 22 countries (for example the Netherlands) that have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.
2) Restart six of Germany's closed plants.
3) Build new, "next generation" reactors."
The funny thing about this is that the CDU decided to end the nuclear times in Germany in 2011. So for now let's see if they really talk the talk, walk the walk.
Going to leave this here, without promoting one side of the political spectrum over the other:
https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1733456315039481997
👉🏽Javier Milei has officially been sworn in as President of Argentina. His official signature in the inauguration book says: ''VIVA LA LIBERTAD CARAJO'' English translation: "Long Live F*cking Freedom"
On the night before @JMilei's inauguration, Argentines are gathering outside of the Central Bank to do a candlelight wake and say goodbye to it.
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift.
I want to share a great article by Preston Pysh on how to ACTUALLY get free speech on social media.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/preston-pysh-how-to-actually-get-free-speech
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.
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Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.
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Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
https://void.cat/d/6THasH4mdnbv8FeUDzwqfP.webp
https://void.cat/d/K4sE8eT7D173MARvdnJCfu.webp

2023-12-09 12:19:39

New blogpost online:
@npub1sqz…vk7v review, both in English & Dutch.
https://cryptofriday.eu/index.php/2023/12/09/relai-review-best-for-buying-bitcoin-in-europe/
Study, learn, hodl, decouple.
#bitcoin 🧡
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My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: The @Relai 🇨🇭 app is especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post and video for more info.
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node... be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It’s that simple.
Do you want to know more about this? Check out my daily stories on Instagram. (yeah I know IG sucks🥴)
Is this post helpful to you? If so, please share it!🧡
If you have any questions, let me know in the comments or send me a DM!⬇️
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⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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#zap 🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption

2023-12-08 12:16:42

I just talked with a nocoiner, topics:
Unit bias (I am too late)
Shitcoins
Want to get rich quick
Saw a video online - the government will ban Bitcoin
Proof of Work vs. PoS🥴
And so on💀💀
HFSP,
Ffs!
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#zap 🧡 #nostr #plebchain #grownostr #stacksats #bitcoineducation #adoption https://image.nostr.build/85cdc182a0f835d8a70250b8f78c1f1f71c47d111579197467116f66a43e4d82.jpg