"Bitcoin is a strange game where the only winning move is to play." -Bitstein
'I’m prepared to lose everything over Bitcoin. Everything I have is riding on this one trade. If Bitcoin fails, I will be absolutely wrecked. It will take years to recover.
I told myself a long time ago I’d rather lose everything than miss out on the most asymmetric opportunity of my lifetime.
I bought the top in 2021. I purchased the bottom in 2022. I’m still buying now.
I’m more allocated as a percentage of my portfolio to Bitcoin than I have ever been before.
This may seem irresponsible as fuck but when you see the world through the Bitcoin lens it makes much more sense. It’s perfect math.
I don’t know how many fully longed degenerate Bitcoin hodlers are out there riding this colossal Bitcoin wave with me but you’re all fucking legends in my book.' -The Bitcoin Therapist
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
9th of June:
➡️ Paraguay is earning more money selling its energy to Bitcoin miners than by selling it to Brazil.
'Paraguay to sell excess hydro-energy to miners as part of its new Economic Development strategy.
Paraguay's Itaipu hydro-power station is one of the world's biggest, yet only 20% of the generated power is used.' - Bitcoin Archive
10th of June:
➡️ If we took the official inflation rate Bitcoin would have to hit $79,000 to reach a new all-time high. But we all know the real inflation is much higher. (Picture 1)
➡️ 'Canadian public company DeFi Technologies has adopted Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. It just bought 110 BTC.' - Bitcoin Magazine
The game theory associated with putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet is starting to heat up. (more on that later on)
Funny isn't it, a 'defi' company buying Bitcoin. No NFT, no Crapyto....Bitcoin.
'The three newest public companies to announce they have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets—Defi Technologies, Semler Scientific, and Metaplanet—are all up between 30-50% over the past 5 days'
11th of June:
➡️Last week I mentioned that Metaplanet directors authorized the purchase of an additional ¥250 million of Bitcoin. Now this week Metaplanet jumped 9.88% after announcing its third Bitcoin purchase. Call it conviction.
12th of June:
➡️Trump pushing Bitcoin as a tool for US Energy is an amazing turnaround. 2024-2028 is going to be insane.
➡️World's largest bank, ICBC, says "Bitcoin retains scarcity similar to gold and solves gold's divisibility and portability issues."
➡️Taunton Firefighters become the fourth union in the US to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
13th of June:
➡️Supply on exchanges fell to ~939K BTC, the lowest since 2021.
➡️ERCOT recommends (Senate Committee on Business and Commerce) that Bitcoin mining be integrated as a Controllable Load Resource to ensure grid reliability.
'𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡:
ERCOT runs the power grid in Texas to make sure everyone gets electricity.
Bitcoin miners can turn off their big power using mining machines quickly, which helps ERCOT manage the grid better during high demand.
This helps ERCOT avoid blackouts, and Bitcoin miners get paid for helping and can save money on their operations.' -Explainbriefly
I love the following gladstein (npub1trr…hdpu) quote: "Once politicians and tax authorities learn that other people are willing to *pay them* to stabilize their energy grids and expand electricity production and bootstrap green energy, it’s game over for mainstream Bitcoin mining denialism."
➡️Microstrategy is raising $500M through convertible senior notes to buy more Bitcoin. With over 214,400 BTC already, the company remains the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.
➡️'Australia’s largest bank just put the Bitcoin ETF [IBTC] onto its trading platform! Commonwealth Bank of Australia has 17 million customers!' - BitcoinArchive
➡️Biden’s SEC is suing Coinbase in federal court arguing it doesn’t have a right to exist as an exchange. At the same time, the Biden campaign is preparing to accept crypto donations via Coinbase. A freaking clown show!
On the other side of the aisle. Trump had a dinner with Bitcoin mining executives. A few days later... check out the 15th of June.
14th of June:
➡️MicroStrategy increased its offering by $200m for a total of $700 MILLION to buy more.
15th of June:
➡️BIDEN ADMIN TO ATTEND BITCOIN ROUNDTABLE WITH KEY CONGRESSIONAL OFFICIALS IN DC
‘The primary objective of this meeting is to strategize on how to keep "Bitcoin and blockchain innovation in the United States.”’ - Dylan LeClair
➡️T-Mobile, partly owned by the German state and which owns T-Mobile US and Magenta, the world's largest telecom company with 3 times the footprint of Verizon and double the footprint of AT&T just announced that they are currently running Bitcoin nodes and they are planning to launch into Bitcoin mining. This has to be one of the most bullish news to come out of BTC Prague.
➡️Brazil's largest bank now offers Bitcoin trading to 60M customers via its Ion app!
17th of June:
➡️'We are currently 33 days into a Bitcoin miner capitulation, with the average duration over the past five years being 41 days.
Miner addresses collectively hold a substantial treasury of 700,000 BTC, but their balance has decreased by 30,000 BTC since October.
This period marks the longest distribution phase for miners since 2017, adding to headwinds.
Despite this, the hash rate has only decreased by 12% from its peak as unprofitable miners continue to sell Bitcoin to sustain operations.' - James van Straten
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
24th of May:
👉🏽 Magnificent 7 stocks have officially exceeded $15 trillion in combined market cap for the 1st time ever.
The group's combined market cap now equals over 50% of US GDP.
In just 2 months the Magnificent 7's value has surged by a whopping $2 trillion.
The Magnificent 7 stocks have rallied by over 60% over the last 12 months compared to only a 20% gain in the other 493 S&P 500 stocks.
Combined they reflect over a record 30% of the entire S&P 500.
Big tech is getting even bigger. This is unsustainable and quite frankly it's the magnificent 1: NVIDIA.
From the movie The Big Short: 'They call him chicken little, bubble boy!'
🏦Banks:
👉🏽No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Let's start this segment with the following statement by Fed Chair Powell:
'Fed Chair Powell says the Fed does not have high confidence in their forecasts.'
I mean who has...? They have like 1400 PhD at the office, but hey..what about forecasting? This is quite reassuring right? Monetary policy is just vibes right now. Ffs.
On the 9th of June
👉🏽How expensive is the US national debt and how dangerous the US debt crisis has become?
'The average interest rate on $34.6 trillion of Treasury debt is now 3.2%, the highest since 2010.
$5.9 trillion of the national debt is in Treasury Bills, with an average interest rate of 5.4%.
Meanwhile, a record $9.3 trillion of national debt is going to mature within the next 12 months.
Even if the Fed cuts rates by 1-2 times, this debt will have to be refinanced at much higher rates.
All while annualized interest payments have already surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history.' -TKL
The federal government's current annualized interest payment expenditure stands at $1.025 trillion, slightly surpassing the annualized defense expenditure of $1.022 trillion. To make it even worse the US government expenditures as % of GDP just hit 43%, matching levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. To put this into perspective, spending as a % of GDP is just 1% below World War 2 levels. Even at the peak of World War 1, US government spending as a % of GDP was 20 percentage points lower.
From my point of view the US has reached the point of no return, no matter the outcome of the upcoming US election.
It took 220 years for the U.S. to accumulate 11 trillion dollars in debt. This is the same amount of debt that the U.S. just added since 2020. Unsustainable. Why?
'In the first 8 months of Fiscal Year 2024, the US deficit hit a whopping $1.2 trillion, or $4.9 billion PER DAY.
In May alone, deficit spending was $348 billion or $11.2 billion a day, according to the CBO.
Over the last 12 months, the US deficit totaled $1.7 trillion equaling 6.2% of US GDP.
Deficit spending as a % of GDP is above all previous recessionary levels except for the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 2020 pandemic, and World War 2.
At the same time, government expenditures hit $6.5 trillion which is 23% of US GDP.
The government is spending as if we are in a recession.' Unsustainable. (Picture 2) No political party will stop this.
👉🏽Bureau of Labor Statistics, making up numbers: Remember. Jobs are everything.
'The difference between the headline jobs number and the household survey hit 4.1 million in May, the largest difference in history.
The household survey is important because workers are only counted once, even if they hold more than one job.
This data shows that over the last 6 months, 1 MILLION Americans have become unemployed.
The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit a near-record of 8.4 MILLION in May 2024.
Many Americans are now working multiple jobs in an effort to fight inflation.' -TKL
On the 11th of June:
M2 is now positive with rates at 5.5%. And rate cuts/QE/YCC are just a matter of time. The first-rate cut is already in place by the ECB, probably the Fed will do the same in the next two/three months.
So why is M2 important, what should you take away from this all?
M2 (money supply growing) + Debt growing = liquidity growing.
More money (liquidity) means higher asset prices, but it also means more monetary inflation. Oh well, it's about to get really fun in the upcoming months. (Picture 3)
👉🏽'Sky News admits the official inflation data DOES NOT accurately reflect the HUGE increase in prices.'
Great video: https://x.com/RadarHits/status/1800089422744195337
James Lavish: 'Controlling party politicians and establishment economists will never outwardly admit it, but consumers are smart enough to know that prices have not just settled at levels far higher than just a few years ago but are *still rising*.
What they tell you is that 'inflation is easing' or 'inflation is falling'. And what they show you is a highly manipulated index that *admits* a month-to-month or year-over-year measure.
But never this, the ongoing impact to you, the consumer.' (Picture 4)
On the 12th of June:
US inflation falls to 3.3%, lower than expectations.
On the 13th of June:
Yellen: We are creating jobs at a very rapid pace.
(Picture 5)
The US lost 1.2 Million full-time jobs during the last 12 months, but government jobs are booming. Let’s celebrate this job wonder.
On the 14th of June:
Argentina's monthly inflation rate in May was the lowest since 2022, dropping for the fifth consecutive month to 4.2% amid an austerity drive by President Milei.
The annual inflation rate has fallen from 133% in December to 40%. Wonder how? Cut government spending! Don't get me wrong I am not celebrating because this is a monthly inflation number. Now add that to the inflation from the past 10 years. And compound it. It is still off the charts. But hey... baby steps. Slash spending, balance budgets, and bring down taxes so the economy has more to work with. But apparently, that’s too complicated for most governments to figure out.
On the 15th of June:
👉🏽'Institutions like the IMF keep wading into countries' debt problems by getting them into more debt.
There are hardly any countries that went from "developing" to "developed" status over the past five decades. The global monetary system is structured to keep countries dependent.' (Picture 6)
I have said it before and will say it again, especially after reading Alex Gladstein's great book & articles, the IM is just a modern-day colonizer.
👉🏽The cost of insuring against a French default (CDS price) has shot up by 16bps this week. The probability of default is priced at 3.5%. The cost of insuring France's debt against default and the risk premium investors demand to hold French government debt both reached their highest since 2022.
👉🏽 Canada bankrupted 532 companies. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀! Canada is a G7 nation. Cleaning the system I guess, low interest rates, and cheap money allowed a lot of businesses to get off the ground that simply were not viable long-term businesses...or is Canada the new Iceland with many millionaires with billions in debt
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The theme of this year’s Oslo Freedom Forum (OFF): Reclaim Democracy.
Great article by Lyn Alden:
'Implications of Open Monetary and Information Networks'
https://www.lynalden.com/open-networks/
TLDR: Open systems and you really should check out Nostr if you haven't already.
Only invest in Bitcoin what you can’t afford to have gradually stolen from you by the government.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
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