kravietz 🦇

I run an information security consulting company in the UK and EU. Long ago I studied chemical engineering, still interested in science and engineering (pro-nuclear and pro-renewables) and politics of EU and Eastern Europe. I mostly post in English, occasionally in Polish, which is my native language, sometimes also in Russian and Ukrainian. I've been to Russia and Ukraine a lot over the last ~20 years, actively supporting Ukraine's defense effort since 2014. I almost always follow back. I prefer to discuss any views as long as they are supported by arguments and evidence, I do ban for insults and hate speech. Once 2:486/23 on #Fidonet

#fedi23 #fedi24 #linux #freebsd #ukraine #poland #nuclear #renewables #infosec #russia #speleo #caving

Public Key

npub1vz555w0w7pdy3l9skg202lkdnjqll4ct67l25f68x2h84e7u7r4qmrqdta

NIP-05 Address

kravietz@agora-echelon-pl.mostr.pub

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxp22288h0qkjgljcty9840mxeeq0l6u9a0042yarn9tn6ulw0p6sssprla

Author Public Key

npub1vz555w0w7pdy3l9skg202lkdnjqll4ct67l25f68x2h84e7u7r4qmrqdta

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Last Notes

2025-06-01 19:05:03

President Zelensky in evening speech:
In total 117 drones were used in “Spider web” operation. The office of the operation was next to FSB HQ in one of the Russian regions.
That’s giant slap on the face of the FSB, which is the party that actually runs the country in #Russia And everyone - army and FSB - know it’s absolutely true.

2025-05-11 18:19:51

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@nprofile…h48d Bardzo ciekawie o fizycznych zmianach w mózgu (!) jakie powoduje nauka pisania i czytania pisze Henrich w “The WEIRDest People in the World” - bardzo dobrze pasuje to do w/w badania.

2025-05-06 19:38:28

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@nprofile…69vl Thanks, fixed!

2025-05-06 14:27:46

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@nprofile…cldh At least he managed to actually to put it on fire unlike these famous Brexit idiots from a few years ago 😂

2025-04-29 10:53:58

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@nprofile…hx4s
Of course it does. Russia attacks countries that it believes are weak, not just those it doesn’t like. Russia believed that Ukraine, Europe and Europe are weak which is why it attacked - first hybrid, and then full-scale.
Trump was somewhat right here that if EU and NATO pre-2022 signalling to Russia regarding Ukraine was more decisive, the 2022 full-scale war might have not started. Unfortunately now he’s doing exactly what he was accusing his predecessors of…
@nprofile…3kw7

2025-04-24 10:22:31

#Russia stock and currency markets plummeted during Wednesday trading amid reports that peace negotiations on Ukraine had hit another roadblock.
Which rather clearly indicates in whose primary interest are the #Trump driven “peace talks” which involve significant concessions from #Ukraine, the attacked country, not the aggressor.
I don’t think this sentiment among Russian investors means that their economy will instantly collapse following the stalling of “peace talks” (there are other hints for gradual deterioration), but it does indicate that the investors think that such version of peace would massively benefit Russia.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/23/russian-stock-market-ruble-tumble-on-news-of-downgraded-ukraine-peace-talks-a88841

2025-04-07 06:27:23

#Meshtastic Europe as seen from 10 km Wizzair cruising altitude :) It was around 6:00 in the morning but I’ve got responses from early birds in Poland, Germany and other places!
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/e1e0ec56cd901ff7ac60c6b640e71680c1d8df663a8afa3c8b69c5372704024b.file?name=D-NBoimAYhUYrw.file
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2499961207affb9db30b8b79e77a7ae948f657533db8e60b9ce71819060d5a2a.file?name=Md7xHWZ6BrFAgA.file

2025-04-03 12:09:17

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@nprofile…uvl9 A co się stało? Bo Stanowskiego mam zablokowanego, wszędzie :)

2025-03-31 21:57:27

Kto jeszcze w 1995 czytał “Noteka 2015” Lewandowskiego, zaśmiewając się do rozpuku z wizji USA prowadzących wspólną operację wojskową z Rosją? 🙄
Prezydent USA na mocy tajnego układu zawartego z rosyjską mafią, w którym Stany Zjednoczone, w zamian za ochronę posowieckich arsenałów nuklearnych, zobowiązały się do obrony jej interesów, wypowiada Polsce wojnę. Amerykańska operacja wojskowa pod kryptonimem „Zew Demokracji”, której oficjalnym celem jest obrona demokracji w Polsce, ma ośmieszyć i upokorzyć polską armię, co w połączeniu z sankcjami gospodarczymi oraz propagandą polityczną ma spowodować ustąpienie Naczelnika Państwa i rozpisanie nowych wyborów.
https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noteka_2015
P.S. EPUB powszechnie dostępny na Chomikuj, gdyby ktoś chciał odświeżyć…

2025-03-24 12:03:53

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@nprofile…uvl9
Bywam w Serbii raz do roku, więc się nie będę wymądrzać, chcę jednak zdecydowanie zanaczyć, że Twoje komentarze na temat wydarzeń tam są fascynujące i zawsze czytam je z wielkim zainteresowaniem! 👍

2025-03-21 14:49:56

#Russia opposition activist Alexandr Skobov was today sentenced to 16 years in prison for his anti-war position, which was equated to “terrorism” by the court. Here’s his final statement:
I will not dwell on the fact that the organisation in which I have the honour to be a member - the Free Russia Forum - is referred to by the investigation as a terrorist community, although there is no decision of any state body recognising the Free Russia Forum as such a community yet. So for now we are just an undesirable organisation. But such petty cheating by my armed opponent is of little interest to me. I try to talk about important things.
And the important thing here is the platform of the Free Russia Forum, in the development of which I took a direct part and which distinguishes the Free Russia Forum from the majority of other opposition groups and organisations. Let me remind you that this platform can be summarised into three points. First. We stand for the unconditional return to Ukraine of all its internationally recognised territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea. Yes, Crimea is Ukraine.
Second. We support all those who are fighting to achieve this goal, including citizens of the Russian Federation who have voluntarily joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And third. We recognise any form of struggle against Putin’s tyranny inside Russia, including armed struggle. Of course, we are deeply disgusted by the methods of ISIS, when innocent people are targeted, as was the case in Crocus City.
But are legitimate targets of the Kremlin’s war propagandists? The Free Russia Forum has not specifically discussed this question or passed any resolutions on it. Therefore, in this case I am expressing solely my personal position. I believe that propagandists such as the TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, for example, deserve the same treatment that Hitler’s propagandist Julius Streicher received when he was hanged by the Nuremberg Tribunal. Until these outcasts of the human race are in the hands of the new Nuremberg Tribunal, the war continues. They are legitimate targets of combat operations.
The comparison between Putin’s propagandists and Hitler’s propagandists is not a purely rhetorical device for me. Much of my writing and speeches are devoted to proving the Nazi nature of Putin’s regime, with which peaceful co-existence is impossible in principle.
I have appealed and am appealing, first and foremost, to Europe to remember the origins of the current European system. Since 1945, Europe has been building a world in which predators should no longer be the masters of life. A world based on the principles of law, justice, freedom, humanism. Europe had achieved much on this path, and seemed to be rid of massacres and territorial redistributions forever. Europe used to think that this safe and prosperous world of itss was securely protected by a big and strong ally across the ocean.
Today this world is being torn to pieces by two scoundrels on both sides - the Kremlin and Washington. In the United States of America, people with a pro-fascist value orientation have come to power. We are witnessing a disgusting attempt at a purely imperialist collusion between two predators. An even more despicable collusion than the Munich conspiracy of 1938. If Putin’s annexations are legalised, it will spell disaster for civilisation. Europe, you have been betrayed. Wake up and go fight for your world! Death to the Russian fascist invaders! Death to Putin, the new Hitler, murderer and scoundrel! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes! With these words I usually end my speech.
But today I will be asked whether I plead guilty. So, here I accuse, I accuse the ruling Putin clique, stinking with corpses, of preparing, unleashing and waging a war of aggression, of war crimes in Ukraine, of political terror in Russia, of defilement of my people. And this is what I am asking the servants of Putin’s regime present here, who are small wheels and cogs of his repressive machine: do you plead guilty of complicity in Putin’s crimes? Do you repent of your complicity? That’s it for me now.
Original: https://t.me/Netvru/36955 (in Russian)

2025-03-20 19:22:34

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@nprofile…ss2z
You’re absolutely right, but deploying land mines to someone else’s territory is an act of aggression already. Specifically Russia planted massive mine fields on Ukraine’s territory to - successfully - prevent Ukrainian counter-offensives, most notably in 2023. But here we are talking exclusively about Poland using land mines on Polish territory.

2025-03-05 15:11:56

Very sober assessment on all points
https://youtu.be/CMI6tc05Jzk?si=85bOW2PcH-j...

2025-02-24 12:23:47

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@nprofile…uw4n
I suspect “Mediazona” are doing more cross-checking than “Goryushko” which explains this ~5% difference.

2025-02-24 11:23:21

US CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) has an unusual artifact on display this year - it was the #Russia made “Geran-2” assault drone shot down in #Ukraine. Interestingly, in the CPAC description you will see literally zero mentions of its origin and destination, which has been cloaked by vague mentions of #Iran - the original design is indeed of Iranian “Shaheed-136” drone but it has been produced in Russia on license for the last year with numerous improvements. The drone has been brought to CPAC by #Poland delegation.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/a0e7a4c4ead6acd1ed09293c2df28440a0cbc134220d815483671d314201c1c4.png?name=WRFOBoUNw1Jqyw.png

2025-02-24 10:48:46

100’000 #Russia KIA (killed in action) documented by name has been just posted a moment ago.
Source: https://t.me/pechalbeda200/158569
Notes:
the channel only documents losses confirmed by name based on published evidence such as obituaries, medals etc
the channel does not included losses among recruits from the occupied territories (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhia) - not sure about Crimea 🤔
these do not include MIA (missing in action), KIA but not identified, KIA buried in mass graves, POW (prisoners of war), wounded, deserters and other undocumented, irreversible losses of Russian army
Therefore that 100k number is the lowest possible boundary of the Russian losses, which has the advantage of being documented and evidenced. Actual irreversible losses are estimated in the range 200’000-800’000 depending on the methodology.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/b073074a8784a444878a20fa61a19f13a7f8a111f696b778736d72fb3cfea9e2.png?name=M0z3RQx7NrPGXw.png

2025-02-16 10:29:42

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@nprofile…e736
If “legitimacy is important” then it’s worth recalling who today is blocking LNG and fertiliser sanctions against Russia or who built the NS2 after annexation of Crimea. So either we make the “legitimacy” a show stopper, or we accept a more pragmatical “whatever works” approach.
@nprofile…kzkp @nprofile…0yjd

2025-02-15 11:38:27

Literal translation of Filatov (“Filolog w zasade”) #Russia front-line soldier from #Pokrovsk direction. Worth keeping that in mind when listening to all that media noise about “US surrendering Ukraine”:
We’re exhausted, we don’t know what else to do. The sky is completely controlled by Khokhol [pejorative of Ukrainians]. You can’t go further than 3 kilometres from Selidove, they burn everything to shit.
A lot of FPV on optics, all dirt roads are controlled 24 by 7. Rotation is simply not possible. We walk 18 kilometres. Water, food, petrol is an urgent issue. I’m not talking about heating. The guys are freezing at their positions. We can’t get anything at all.
Of FPV that are not on optics - Khokhol found a window where we don’t have EW [jamming]: frequencies from 1020 to 2100. And is actively working on them. The other day we lost two great fighters: they just didn’t get to their positions. Also FPV.
They don’t let you cut the roof in a “Bukhanka” [UAZ-452 4x4 minivan], because it’s army property on the balance sheet. You ride in a “Bukhanka” like in a coffin, you can’t see or hear anything. Personal transport is forbidden.
In Novotroitskoye and the nearest rear areas, everything is working: from barrels and MLRS to fucking rockets - by the sound of them you’ve never heard of them before. In short, it’s fucked up.
No one understands how to work in such an environment. The Khokhols are fucking us hard and fast, really hard. If we don’t start working with the FABs as hard as we did at Avdos [Avdeevka], we won’t get any further.
Original: https://t.me/philologist_zov/2028

2025-02-12 14:24:07

Polski CERT:
Pierwsze w Polsce bezpłatne narzędzie, dzięki któremu każda osoba posiadająca stronę internetową będzie mogła ją przeskanować pod kątem bezpieczeństwa i podatności na zagrożenia cybernetyczne.
Dzięki takim inicjatywom jak http://moje.cert.pl właściciele stron internetowych zyskują narzędzie pozwalające dbać o ich bezpieczeństwo i spokój.
Nie używałem i wątpię, żeby zastąpiło to normalne testy penetracyjne, ale do wyszukania trywialnych dziur na pewno warto tego używać.
http://moje.cert.pl

2025-02-12 12:21:12

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@nprofile…d262
To nie jest polemika z Twoim argumentem, raczej smutna konstatacja faktu, że w polskiej praktyce publiczne ten prosty fakt, że “FB ma zasięg ponad 85% wśród użytkowników” kończy jakiekolwiek dyskusje. Mam tu oczywiście na myśli samych decydentów i większość użytkowników, nie nerdowskie środowiska takie jak my tutaj.
Oczywiście, należy mówić publicznie o wadach takiego podejścia ale należy też mieć świadomość, że 85% słuchających będzie mieć zamknięte uszy i oczy. Polscy decydenci nie mają po prostu silnej kultury państwowości bo często rekrutują się z przypadkowych ludzi, nominowanych wskutek decyzji politycznych, a nie z korpusu Służby Cywilnej.
Dla nich korzystanie FB w pracy jest naturalnym przedłużeniem życia prywatnego i nie widzą tu żadnej sprzeczności, tak samo jak Dworczyk nie widział żadnego problemu z wykorzystaniem WP do korespondencji służbowej.
To jest problem z tego samego gatunku co np. kultura parkowania czy kultura jazdy. Oczywiście, masa ludzi rozumie i w teorii się zgadza jak należy postępować, ale wystarczy, że np 30% ludzi w otoczeniu ma na to wywalone i już postępowanie poprawne i pożądane skutkuje faktycznym upośledzeniem, więc wszyscy zaczynają robić… jak wszyscy.
@nprofile…mu5c

2025-02-12 11:38:26

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@nprofile…d262 @nprofile…mu5c
I to jest niestety argument z gatunku kończących dyskusję w Polsce, tak samo jak kończy się każda dyskusja o religii w szkołach czy czymkolwiek innym. Większość ludzi w Polsce używa FB nawet jak nie chce tylko musi bo używają go ich znajomi - i to jest powód wystarczający, żeby kwestie formalne takie jak prywatność, obowiązek rejestracji czy prawo do informacji publicznej po prostu odeszły w niebyt. A jak ktoś zacznie pozywać urzędy za wyłączną komunikację na FB to na tych samych grupach FB będzie milion oburzonych głosów “PRZECIEŻ JA MAM FB, CO ONI ZDZIWIAJĄ”.

2025-02-07 17:49:38

How it started:
Robots and tanks: what weapons the Russian army will receive. In 2021, the Russian military may receive Sarmat, Zirkon and Prometheus weapons.[^1]
How it’s going:
The State Duma explained the appearance of donkeys on the frontline. General Sobolev said that donkeys on the front line are normal.[^2]
[^1]: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2020/12/29/13420418.shtml
[^2]: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2025/02/06/25021682.shtml

2025-02-07 16:18:05

#France Mirage-2000 captured in flight over #Poland yesterday 😍
(🧵1/2)
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2038809692b42a0a4402a0146260730f1295b2d6a4d3031025eb14db52b5f49b.file?name=GXZ4qJs5RyC6jA.file

2025-02-07 14:08:58

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Alexey Milchakov from #Rusich raised a very similar list of ideas to avenge #Azerbeijan complaining that #Russia (!) downed its passenger (!) aircraft.
“simply take away their businesses [in Russia], as we did with Domodedovo”
“those who has Russian passport, send to the front line; if they refuse, strip of citizenship and deport”
“those without citizenship, check thoroughly and deport”
Please note: both Vershinin and Milchakov are furious exclusively because #Russia shot down a passenger aircraft flying from Azerbeijan to Russia, including Russian citizens on board, and Azerbeijan complains about it. Milchakov honestly feels that Azerbeijan somehow “offended” Russia and it requires some kind of punishment or revenge.
You just can’t make it up. I find these two statements excellent clinical examples of how the Russian system of values works, because it’s not something an average Western person can even realistically imagine.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/17801fa3a6784e04af15c6cfbd66931cd57d569511adfc9823a6e70f21e57482.png?name=0LLjTAnavuVEhg.png

2025-02-07 13:56:20

After #Azerbeijan announced it will seek justice and compensation from #Russia for shooting down the #J2843 flight, a prominent Russian writer Lev Vershinin called Azerbeijan president “whining f..got” because he dares to raise some complaints towards the powerful sacred Russia. Interestingly, Vershinin doesn’t even live in Russia, he lives in #Spain.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2372d732308ab07a47b466dd5cc9d6bbdc38a13b04595476dd846fdf72f36c30.png?name=5LHG_6IBcE5ZbA.png

2025-02-07 13:56:20

After #Azerbeijan announced it will seek justice and compensation from #Russia for shooting down the #J28243 flight, a prominent Russian writer Lev Vershinin called Azerbeijan president “whining f..got” because he dares to raise some complaints towards the powerful sacred Russia. Interestingly, Vershinin doesn’t even live in Russia, he lives in #Spain.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2372d732308ab07a47b466dd5cc9d6bbdc38a13b04595476dd846fdf72f36c30.png?name=5LHG_6IBcE5ZbA.png

2025-02-07 11:48:55

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@nprofile…t26u
Well, the “anthracite offer” was a fully legitimate tongue in the cheek highlight of the fact, that if Russian occupation administration can send thousands of tons of anthracite from the occupied Donbas to Turkey, why not send it to Transnistria instead, if they’re so much concerned about its wellbeing?
Same story for the Russian ownership of MGRES - ownership is one thing, but it’s not Russian energy company controlling the plant remotely, but their local representatives. It’s them who have the decisive power over what is actually happening on the ground there, not Moscow. What would Russians do if locals decided to operate the plant as they like - go to an international arbitration court, with a complaint regarding an unrecognised “republic” that is actually a legal blackhole, because Russians made it one?
From my perspective, both offers are a clear offer to Tiraspol and Moscow, who should make their mind. Either they play by the latter of law, but in this case everything they’ve been doing in Transnistria and Donbas is illegal, or they’re playing by “dog eat dog” rules, but they shouldn’t be surprised if their opponent does so too. You can’t play by both sets of rules, flexibly switching between them when it suits you.

2025-02-07 10:52:38

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@nprofile…kzkp
It’s the same argument as we heard a lot in 2011-2022: “okay, maybe PV requires Russian gas but at least gas is cleaner than coal”.
How much of a fallacy that is was brutally demonstrated in 2022 when the Russian gas had to be replaced by coal and then more expensive gas from US and Norway.
But gas from Norway and US is more expensive specifically because none of these countries had a history of blackmailing EU with cutting gas supplies, which Gazprom routinely did. By sticking to the “cheaper” gas from Russia, we developed a strategic dependency (see the 2015 slide below) that had hit us hard in 2021 and I would argue it has actually enabled the Russian invasion on Ukraine .
And we’re just stepping into the same river now. Chinese PV, is cheap specifically because it’s manufactured not only in denial of all the EU values but also highly subsidised with the sole purpose of obtaining a practical monopoly in the supply chain and create a strategic dependence.
But more importantly, this supply chain also includes Chinese inverters that nobody talks about but which control the actual electricity output from any PV and can be disabled remotely, this is just asking for another “Gazprom 2021” repetition.
And PV specifically is probably the worst possible example for “replacing fossil fuels”, at least at our longitudes - in Germany, PV is the largest single source of electricity in terms of installed (potential) power, at around ~90 GW but its actual electricity output is rather miserable 14.5%
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/644b299f342ca4960122a4ca6706afac1456546abf24809c2686290ee93a1142.png?name=hF_DaHtwtTt3Ww.png
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/4cfe5f17c386fa5042c611ab1d3f2266b0673c663a038e5fbbd83366995737be.png?name=azAEVp3mivfRTA.png

2025-02-07 09:35:13

Why are China-made batteries and PV so cheap? Because this:
https://mastodon.green/@gerrymcgovern/113961859612683775

2025-02-07 09:21:42

@nprofile…gzcj
There’s nothing impressive in persistent denialism of supply chains that are very well documented by IEA just for the sake of a tribal argument…
@nprofile…5xjf @nprofile…9vf2

2025-02-03 22:21:51

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@nprofile…3kw7
Most people don’t go to forest with car jacks, lasers, strobe lights and other border breaching equipment.
Here’s a price list from one of the human trafficking group with a list of equipment you’ll need to cross the border and prices in Belarus.
Powerbank - 65 Sleeping bag - 85 Waterproof boots - 40 Cap - 15 Gloves - 20 Socks - 10 Warm clothing Dual SIM a1/Laif with available credit.
@nprofile…4w0g
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/11939ba7578bef5ddf6f26a5f2cfb4ff6f058da61e152b64fff54927b03eea4d.png?name=kPwW5Wn9xb5Whw.png

2025-02-03 17:25:18

A very interesting case of #phishing I’ve just received today 🤔 Sent correctly by PayPal’s Microsoft Outlook with valid DKIM but addressed to someone else, my email is only found in the SMTP envelope. The links inside are valid paypal[.]com URLs as well. It seems like the phishing vector is the text message with a fishy US phone number… The number was previously reported as used to call people with #PayPal scam
https://lookup.robokiller.com/p/888-928-7078#comments-count
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/a5eb42acd7cbbbbcb71e715176f3918471d5970bfe8295e4e836e77903ce253d.png?name=xX92CxpidMg6Ew.png

2025-02-03 16:54:01

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@nprofile…xv5m You mean his Miss France vs Second place? I didn’t check that, but I did check he actually posted it :)

2025-01-26 17:44:52

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@nprofile…fr7x
and fell to 35% in 2024
The only reason why Germany is now building new 10 GW fossil gas plants is to compensate for phased out nuclear reactors combined with new renewables. Germany chose to balance them with fossil gas, France and Sweden - with nuclear. Which you can clearly see in CO2 intensity of electricity generation in these countries.
If you start today, it becomes relevant by 2045
Of course, if you try your best not to build something, that definitely becomes a non option.
@nprofile…wzwh

2025-01-24 10:54:49

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@nprofile…yg9s
Worry not, I’ve just seen news today that they’re planning indexation of pensions to combat inflation. The average increase will be stunning 500 RUB (=$5) 🤡

2025-01-24 10:36:53

#Russia #Gazprom is testing ground for rising of wholesale gas distribution prices by over 2.5x.
At present, the average tariff for gas transportation by independent producers is 65.2 rubles per thousand cubic metres per 100 km, while the current cost of this activity is 109 rubles. And to ensure the financing of new projects, it should be raised to about 170 rubles. The multi-year freezing of the transport tariff against the background of annual indexation of wholesale prices also increases the disproportion of profitability of Gazprom and NPG field development.
Source: https://www.interfax.ru/business/1004282 (in Russian)

2025-01-22 19:15:00

In 2012 the town of #Donetsk hosted EURO-2012, in 2025 people people throw bagged faeces through the windows because water sewage doesn’t work. “Russian world” has finally arrived…
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/503828b41b0b0e69c44be5735b0b5f3bc0a35a372f8a29e321a1654847e0a625.png?name=OnT0XkRFGA3XqQ.png

2025-01-22 11:29:11

#Russia loan interest rates may reach 40-50% in 2025, predicts a financial expert from the State Financial University, if Central Bank will further raise the base rate to 23-24% (it’s now at 21%). Right now the interest reaches 35-40% per year.
Source: https://finance.mail.ru/2025-01-21/finansist-schitaet-chto-stavki-po-kreditam-mogut-vyrasti-do-50-64527063/ (in Russian)

2025-01-22 10:26:05

Polish PM Donald Tusk speech on the beginning of #Poland presidency in EU, he goes through various topics and issues, reaches the topic of energy prices and says with quite desperation that EU simply can’t survive with energy prices 3x higher than in USA, because that’s impacting economy and people and boosting popularity of populist parties. And you can hear some people booing.
I’m just wondering what they’ve got in their minds? That’s prices aren’t high? That they aren’t impacting people? That populist parties aren’t rising in power? 🤔
P.S. I will import his speech into PeerTube later on, for now it’s broadcast live
https://multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstreaming/plenary-session_20250122-0900-PLENARY?seekTo=250122104035

2025-01-21 19:17:25

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@nprofile…fw8x Yes, the whole set of postulates looks much needed!

2025-01-21 16:02:55

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@nprofile…sqcg
You’ve got more than enough independent WP:RS citations so I don’t know what’s the problem they’re having… The argument about “15 years old kid” is just silly, there’s tons of much more complex articles on Wikipedia.

2025-01-21 15:47:01

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@nprofile…uqpg
Well, five years ago it was already 6 years since Russia annexed Crimea and invaded Ukraine, 5 years since they blew up ammunition depot in a NATO country, 14 years since they assassinated Litvinenko and 2 years since they tried to assassinate Skripal but instead killed a homeless woman. The primary reason why they did all of the above was that when they continuously escalated everyone was looking the other side and loudly repeating “let’s not talk about it”.

2025-01-20 11:04:14

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@nprofile…kzkp
As far as I understand, this is going to be formally handled by a Dubai company. When Kremlin wants, they always can find a solution. And Moldova is not in EU, which also makes things simpler in this particular case.

2025-01-20 10:30:48

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@nprofile…u9xp
I do, and I think it started from your recommendation :)
@nprofile…4fxs

2025-01-20 10:28:54

Solution to the #Transnistria gas crisis comes out to be that… #Russia will buy gas from EU market which will be then supplied via #Moldova and Transnistria will even pay for it.
So yeah, no nuclear war, no Russian landing in Romania or Odesa, none of the terrible scenarios that some people predicted as result of #Ukraine terminating gas transfer for its invader. No big words, Moscow will simply buy gas in EU for money and supply it to its military base in illegally occupied part of Moldova.

2025-01-20 10:10:31

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@nprofile…f8hk
#nuclear reactors providing totally “constant power” in France:
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/f1021c3e11a56dcdbf0c8c34910c525aaf2817e36fe6a09deac7da927b0c18fa.png?name=kNLys2XDEbGInw.png

2025-01-19 20:42:51

Ryan Chenkie:
Developers, please be careful when installing Homebrew. Google is serving sponsored links to a Homebrew site clone that has a cURL command to malware. The URL for this site is one letter different than the official site.
Note: Google allows the ad sponsors to specify an URL that will be displayed on the ad (original brew.sh here), but the click takes you to the malware domain brewe.sh.
#Apple #HomeBrew #Google #MacOS
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/e993adffa3e665301dd3a3052ca8ba52eaaebbd3ab5aebc22f8a5a0f476c2ee4.png?name=YNjji4NMOVbb6w.png
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/af94142beb4665c426b424f19014a854d9cc0b7bcfcade9949eff3941e4fb4cf.png?name=Dhbb-kJa_46u3Q.png

2025-01-16 21:19:32

#France submarine crew accidentally leak sensitive information through #Strava app
https://www.euronews.com/2025/01/15/french-submarine-crew-accidentally-leak-sensitive-information-through-strava-app

2025-01-16 14:15:49

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@nprofile…69vl Indeed, I was typing without thinking - fixed

2025-01-15 10:09:56

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@nprofile…w7s7 Well, if you’re talking about Milchakov “playing friends” then I don’t think he did it on his own will at all 😄

2025-01-15 09:58:00

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@nprofile…4dwe It’s interesting logic - because latest Trump support was genuine, DNC nor Cambridge Analytica didn’t happen 🤔

2025-01-14 18:56:58

#Iran signed a strategic partnership with #Russia but there’s one catch:
One of the key clauses in the pact pertains to territorial integrity, a point of particular significance for Iran due to the ongoing claims by the United Arab Emirates over the three Gulf islands that Iran has controlled since 1971. This clause, however, does not include recognition of Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, or other disputed regions.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-russia-inside-strategic-partnership-treaty

2025-01-09 12:26:04

My instance will be temporarily down for #FreeBSD 14.2-RELEASE upgrade 🥳 This applies to Akkoma and PeerTube.

2025-01-08 12:55:52

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@nprofile…j5j7 100% agreed

2025-01-08 11:31:07

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I can only add to this that I don’t think the imperial ideology is the only factor here - Putin’s insistence has strong pragmatic base, as strange as it sounds. The reality is that #Putin failed to deliver any of his social and economic promises he was repeatedly making since 1999.
Russian society as a whole has this interesting feature that they can accept any misery, as long as their closest neighbours are as poor as themselves.
Strong economic growth in Ukraine and EU accession could be actually triggering even for Russian society, and would make them start questioning Putin’s efficiency as a leader.
Putin’s incompetence as a leader in 21st century can only survive when unquestioned - when Putin enjoys exclusive protection from any criticism, his policies are never verified against his promises and his authority presented as some form of sacred entitlement.
By trying to destroy Ukraine Putin is really fighting to sustain the very economic model he created - autocracy, cognitive bias, incompetence and inequality.

2024-12-20 12:11:56

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@nprofile…nkff
Energiewende is just part of the puzzle - look at Merkel’s immigration policy, employment policy, financial discipline, customs policy, Green Deal and other topics used by AfD as their vehicle.
And the execution of policies is the not some kind of minor aspect here - it’s the most important part. Everyone may recognise that things may need change, but how Energiewende was implemented, it made things actually worse not better. I think this was one of the factors that actually pushed many people into climate denialism even if they were initially neutral or supportive. Just remember what people pushing Energiewende were saying in 2010 - there were promises of clean, cheap electricity within a decade (!). Instead you got very expensive electricity made out of coal and gas when renewables don’t work.
As for German car industry or EU industry in general, you can’t really “transform” to compete with cheap imports from China, where industry runs on cheap coal electricity and slave labour. That’s physically impossible.
You either protect your environmentally-friendly industry with customs tariffs, like Switzerland does, or you just openly tell everyone “okay, we’re shutting down industry here and switching to cheap imports because we don’t give a shit about CO2 emitted in China and slave labour”.
But you can’t say “oh we care very much about environment so we shut down our clean industry and import everything from China”, this just doesn’t make sense. That kind of policy is exactly what drives people towards AfD.
@nprofile…ysde

2024-12-20 11:56:37

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@nprofile…ysde
I think the answer is a bit more complex. AfD is an interesting phenomenon in the modern politics that unifies populism with political diversity (!), attracting people whose views are not represented by the mainstream parties. The same thing is seen in “Konfederacja” in Poland, and possibly other similar parties in Europe. Most importantly, the political program of these parties is an amalgam of various rather vague proposals and criticisms, thus allowing the rejects to find “their” favourite piece there while they don’t care for the other parts (openly pro-Russian or neo-Nazi ones). In case of Germany, I don’t think there’s any other party than AfD in Germany that would openly say Energiewende is counterproductive and economic disaster - so the popularity of AfD is also a direct consequence of their denial of reality, which they call “political consensus”. Naturally, if both parties gain significant political momentum, they definitely will crystalise their programs and that’s when their former supporters may get shocked, but for now they’re welcoming everyone disappointed in the mainstream.

2024-12-19 15:11:52

The fact that #Putin is doing his annual “open questions” show with 155th Marines Brigade in the background says more than any of his words. That’s the unit responsible for war crimes in Bucha and ISIS style beheadings of POWs in Kursk oblast.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/c7aea2369615524a9917e8d0cdf73d005643cc4859d0681f3ad76c6bc7388e00.file?name=2tcUPFwMVigXrQ.file

2024-12-16 12:29:00

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@nprofile…q5ml
Mi tego wszystkiego nie musisz tłumaczyć, ja to wszystko wiem. I właśnie dlatego tak mnie wkurza gdy Greenpeace i WWF preferują spalanie węgla i gazu byle tylko pozbyć się energetyki jądrowej, chociaż jest to w 100% sprzeczne ze stanowiskiem IPCC. I równocześnie wszyscy traktują ich nadal jako organizacje “ekologiczne” tylko mające “odrębne zdanie”. To mniej więcej tak jakby zapraszać do telewizji Ziębę do komentowania każdej sprawy związanej z ochroną zdrowia i tłumaczyć to, że “on chce dobrze, tylko ma odrębne zdanie”.
Ja wiem, że ta krytyka w odniesieniu do XR i OP nie jest w 100% uzasadniona bo część osób z tych środowisk nie podziela antyatomowego fanatyzmu Greenpeace. Ale jest uzasadniona w co najmniej 90% bo jeżeli popatrzeć na postulaty polskiego OP - zwiększenie inwestycji w koleje i bilety miesięczne - to mają one na globalne emisje wpływ dokładnie zerowy. Jeszcze bardziej odklejone od rzeczywistością są postulaty niemieckiego OP, który pisze coś o prędkości na autostradach ale równocześnie robi wszystko, żeby nie zauważyć słonia w składzie porcelany jakim było wyłączenie niemieckiej EJ… bo przecież to uraziłoby fanatyków z Greenpeace.
I to są właśnie powody, dla których mało kto traktuje te organizacje poważnie - są one postrzegane jako jeszcze jeden klub wzajemnej adoracji, który ma jakieś swoje oderwane od rzeczywistości postulaty ale nie potrafi wyjść poza podziały plemienne.

2024-12-16 09:59:18

W pełni zgadzam się z autorem - ten post dotyczy całego ruchu “ekologicznego” w Polsce, nie tylko OP:
Mówi się czasami, że dobrymi chęciami jest wybrukowane piekło. To nieźle pasuje do działań Ostatniego Pokolenia. Jest dziś bowiem w Polsce tak, że ruch ekologiczny potrzebuje przede wszystkim dwóch rzeczy. Po pierwsze poparcia zwykłych ludzi. Po drugie autorefleksji i wsłuchania się w nastroje społeczne. To co robi Ostatnie Pokolenie podkopuje ostatki sympatii oraz pokazuje brak zdolności do autorefleksji.
https://ciekawy.blog/index.php/2024/12/13/ostatnie-pokolenie-dobrymi-checiami-brukuje-pieklo/

2024-12-10 09:23:20

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The key messages here seem to be - and you may disagree because it’s entirely subjective divination - that “Russia is close to achieving the SMO goals” and it’s not interested in prolonged attrition war. The first in reality means that Kremlin is ready to announce that the whole goal of the SMO was to capture say Kurakhove, for its eternally strategic value, and once it’s been achieved, declare total victory.

2024-12-10 09:14:02

#Russia head of foreign intelligence Sergey Naryshkin announced today that ‘Russia is close to achieving the goals set for the SMO [special military operation]’ because ‘Ukrainian forces are on the verge of collapse’ and the West has ‘failed to provoke the situation in Russia’. Most interestingly, however, Naryshkin says at the same time that ‘it is the West that is trying to impose a prolonged war on Russia’ in order to ‘provoke a colour revolution’ - the one that the sentence earlier it ‘failed to provoke’.
I don’t know if the Kremlin appointed Naryshkin to preach this nonsense as punishment for him hesitating on 21 February 2022, not to mention that he is the head of foreign intelligence (SVR) and not defence or foreign minister to make such declarations.
Perhaps the fact that the head of the SVR is just saying this means that this is a deliberate strategic communication representing some kind of offer to the West? Or is Naryshkin the last Russian politician tolerated by Western diplomacy?
The claim that the West is trying to impose a prolonged war on Russia is of course absurd but above all contradicts recent statements by Lavrov and Putin that the war is going so perfectly that no ceasefire is out of the question.
Nonetheless, it seems like some ice has cracked and started to move, we just don’t know where to…
Source: https://tass.ru/politika/22625025 (in Russian)

2024-12-07 14:22:39

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So, what outcomes are possible?
If the result is that Russian control will eventually spill over into Europe then from evolutionary point of view, their system will be ‘right’ and this European concept of the rule of law and human rights will prove to be an interesting but short lived mutation.
I don’t want to use the cheap example of lawmakers fiercely discussing well-being of cows while thousands of people inside EU are living in barn-like conditions and thousands of people outside of EU borders die of bombs… but I will actually use it. This kind of social alienation also is a kind of trait, for one because it increases the perception of inequality and destroys social cohesion, which gives birth to populist movements.
If, as a result of the new outbreak of Russian imperialism, Russia collapses, it means that their imperialism was a feature that impaired their ability for successful growth and was disadvantageous at this particular environmental context. That means our vision of civilisation has indeed proven right.
It is possible that Russia will survive in some badly bruised form and will have to reinvent itself, because it too is subject to all these evolutionary processes. Russian society may transform either into one focused more on its own well-being, that’s one way - or quite the opposite, one that is even more revanchist and aggressive.
And there is also the possibility that if not Russia, then there will be someone else testing our ideas for living. In biology, predators and parasites function as part of evolution and not apart from it.
Especially the role of the former is important, as they eliminate weak organisms. Nestor Makhno or Socialist-Revolutionaries in 1920’s Ukraine and Russia may have had great ideas on how to live, but they did not. They were almost literally eaten by a violent, determined and highly organised predator - the Bolsheviks.
In a social context, one thing that makes society “weak” is the loss of their internal cohesion and some kind of guiding idea that unites individuals and is what differentiates a society from a crowd of random individuals gathered in one place.
So, in summary, I don’t think Russia is in any degree “world’s cancer” understood as an extraordinary disruption of mechanisms of social evolution. Majority of what Russia did in 20th-21st century was due to the inability of its adversaries (or victims - call it what you want) to come up with a more effective strategy for survival and execute it.

2024-12-07 14:14:38

This banner, albeit likely purely metaphorical, made me think about the biological analogy here.
Note: if your first thought is “OMG social Darwinism”, it’s not - that ideology rather primitively applies strictly biological “dog eat dog” logic to human society[^1], while the actual evolutionary processes of societies are humbly studied and referred to as sociocultural evolution.[^2]
So, is #Russia really “world’s cancer”? The actual biological cancer is the result of a disruption of the mechanisms of control of cell division in a healthy organism, which have been developed by millenia of evolution. The disruption may be caused by environmental factors (mutagenic chemicals, radiation), biological factors (inflammation) or completely random mutations. There’s a few conditions here for a mutation (however caused) to develop into cancer, but that’s another story.
The idea that Russia exists somehow aside of the evolution would perfectly play with the old myth of Russian “uniqueness”, but it would also require another popular myth to be true.
Specifically, it would be the utopia that the current socio-economic system in Europe or the USA is the end of history and an ideal on which social evolution stops for all time.
I’ve asked myself a question: is a society in which people have to pay $400 a month for insulin an ideal which I would like to last forever? Okay, so let’s rather go on evolving…
The biological evolution is based on constant mutations that confront the environment and either give their carrier an advantage or not. Christianity, democracy and Enlightenment were such “mutations”, where societies invented new ways of organising themselves - and gained massive advantages.
But Russia is subject to social evolution just like any other society, it operates within the global evolution rather than somehow disrupting it. Russian kleptocracy is also certainly such an “evolutionary trait”, which, thanks to the wild money greedy British and European financial sector, has given Russian elites political influence in Europe and financial security at home.
Russian imperialism, too, is such a trait, which has flourished only thanks to the highly receptive Gerhard Schroeders of our time, and from the Russian point of view it absolutely worked. If not for Putin’s absolutely disastrous decision of 2022 Russia would continue accumulating enormous wealth, accessible to the lucky few, and enormous political influence on EU. From evolutionary point of view, they could grow forever, with serf-like society that never rebels.
Naturally, this particular social trait also holds the seeds of its collapse - inability to correct things that look like a mistake, mostly because they are a mistake. Popular Russian “wisdom” says “once we entered the fight, we need to fight till the end”. Many Russian political commentators literally use it on the single breath after confirming 2022 was a huge mistake.
But there’s a second side to this equation - the fact that Russian imperialism works is also only thanks to the weakness of European societies, which have made of the phrase “let someone else do something” an unofficial creed for the 21st century… this is precisely the process of social evolution that we are watching from the inside.
Putin’s decision was also an evolutionary one - to be precise, it tested the resolve of a system based on high-risk choices made by a narrow, authoritarian circle of command.
What happens next? Different outcomes are possible.
(continued)
[^1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Darwinism
[^2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sociocultural_evolution
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/8340cf3a53a7952b4342e6375cdbff1efcd8cd9e9141f0d5e3fa3f3fa3c19edf.png?name=A0zZsySR8L0Nyg.png

2024-11-29 17:11:36

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@nprofile…92y4
Absolutely yes, and if the tax man comes you can always argue it’s to survive the blackouts 🤷
@nprofile…63md @nprofile…7hh7

2024-11-29 17:06:48

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@nprofile…7hh7
That’s a great case study I need to find and suggest to my colleagues who do hypothermia training in mountain rescue courses! We’ve done some near-hypothermia exercise outdoors to test various casualty insulation techniques, but never drunk 😉
@nprofile…63md

2024-11-29 16:57:35

A friend from #Ukraine posted a photo of how windows in his Kyiv district look like when there’s a blackout - this one already lasts 6 hours. Some people rely on gas or battery packs, but he started using a bio-ethanol fireplace for heating and basic light.
He says it works surprisingly well in terms of heat produced, which makes sense because ethanol (C2H5OH) has a pretty high energy content of 30 MJ/kg as compared to ~10 MJ/kg for most wood.
Ethanol burns cleanly, producing no ash or carbon monoxide (CO), only water vapour (H2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) so it doesn’t require a chimney. After a while, it will increase humidity in the apartment but with ventilation that most flats have, it won’t deteriorate air quality too much.
The biofuel is unsuitable for consumption as it may also contain highly toxic methanol, but many people in Eastern Europe also distil their own ethanol which is cheap and easy, especially if you have a garden with apples, plums or any other fruits. This is indeed a great way to heat your house at low cost.
At this point my colleague asked “okay, but why do I need a fireplace at all if I have all the moonshine”? But here’s a catch: alcohol, when consumed, does warm you up by the benefit of calories ingested, but then it also dilates your blood vessels leading to much faster heat loss. This is precisely why, when drunk, people get a red face and generally feel very warm. The process of losing heat is much faster than the calories produced from alcohol metabolism so net, you’re losing calories.
If you drink in a properly heated place this is not a problem, but drinking in a cold place in winter is generally bad idea because you first lose all your body heat and then fall asleep due to intoxication, which can be potentially deadly.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/3b46114b3eec594ce76a8699be201f206634d03cfda2b6bb4bf6684269d0b6c5.png?name=Rb1r-Y8v6DF6VA.png
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/97b8cc12598c509d094e708c91eb64b73b3ca18cb00417465a08d221f5b4290c.png?name=gytboPK0C2z9Aw.png

2024-11-23 12:48:31

#Poland pro-#Russia party “Konfederacja” and “Oszukana Wieś” (Deceived Village) started another protest against 1) local taxation rules, 2) EU-Mercosur proposed agreement. The protest happens on… the border #Ukraine which has literally nothing to do with either of these subjects and happens on the day of remembrance of #Holodomor which killed millions of people in rural Ukraine in 1930’s. It would be difficult to find any more pro-Moscow gesture than this… 🤮
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/e02075efc631e2fbaa1787884146a678f66e4432379f4bacf080c26f7365275f.png?name=n4Awx3KBkwb62A.png

2024-11-21 10:08:58

#Russia had fired RS-26 “Rubezh” ICMB at #Ukraine #Dnipro today which had been received as a “nuclear warning”, because the rocket could “potential carry” a nuclear warhead.
But I don’t think it was the primary objective of the demonstration - one thing that is widely ignored by the Western audience is the sentiments inside Russia. And these are not good, to put that lightly - in the eyes of Russian military hawks, Russia only humiliates itself by voicing horrible threats of what happens when “red lines” are crossed but doing nothing in response. As a reminder, the first “red lines” in 2022 that, in Kremlin’s words, justified nuclear response, were supplies of tanks or aircrafts to Ukraine. Since then, the list of toothless threats only grew.
As it comes to “warnings”, Russia had been pounding Ukraine for three years with Kh-101 missiles, which were also designed to “potentially” carry a thermonuclear warhead.

2024-11-20 11:16:37

Checking out the details of the #Russia attack on the #Czechia ammunition depot in Vrbětice in 2014, I read with some amusement the then Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s excuses of how “Russian agents were not attacking the Czech Republic, they were attacking the property of a Bulgarian company”, and then further excuses them that “the cargo was supposed to explode on the way, not in the Czech Republic”.
That was truly an awesome excuse! The Russians wanted the explosion to happen on the road in some town or on the highway, but it exploded on the spot - okay, time fuses are complicated, not their fault!
To put it bluntly, if then in 2014 there had been a determined EU and #NATO response to that attack of an absolutely belligerent and aggressive nature (people died) - such as in 2021-2022 i.e. sanctions and a determined expulsion of Russian personnel etc. - then probably the war in 2022 would not have broken out at all.
Instead, a few years later, NATO issued a lame statement about “expressing solidarity with the Czech people” - I wonder why, since according to Babiš it was not even the Czech Republic that was attacked? Or was it, after all?
And it only issued it because Bellingcat revealed the real perpetrators of the attack, which the Czech government had apparently been withholding all this time…. presumably so as “not to escalate the situation”!

2024-11-17 11:57:00

I often hear a popular opinion that “Russians will never rebel”, regardless of how miserable living conditions or repressions become as result of the war. This is justified by the past passivity of the #Russia society, which is a fact.
But there’s one catch - Russians never experienced such a combination of factors before. The potential for social revolt in Russia is growing all the time - because of the deteriorating economic situation, because of the huge losses on the front, because of the ethnic conflicts, because of the increasing violence and corruption by the power structures.
Russia has had technocratic mechanisms developed over the years to manage this potential…. but they have always been based on a combination of carrot and stick. Putin has repeatedly backtracked on unpopular reforms in the past if polls showed that they could lead to revolts. Now the ‘carrots’ have run out, hence Putin’s recent words that ‘the next 20-30 years will be difficult’.
But the dysfunction of the Russian system of power also lies in its blindness to social phenomena that do not fit Putin’s vision, as demonstrated by 24 February 2022 and the growing public discontent over the war since then. This means that Putin is very likely to disregard warning signals, believing himself in a myth that “Russians will tolerate anything”.
And what is the aforementioned ‘stick’? The stick is the immensely proliferated power structures that make up 10-15% of the workforce in some republics and are accustomed to living a life of serfdom. But what added value do all these FSB, ‘Rosgvardia’, FSIN, FSOs, etc. produce? They live mainly on budget funds (fed by gas exports), a kind of ‘taxation’ of the grey economy (bribes) and what they steal in the occupied territories.
Russian society, including the power structures, is a collectivist society, i.e. one in which the opinion of the whole is central to the choices made by individuals. The consequence of this is that the potential for rebellion in general is low, because everyone looks to others and decides to keep a low profile themselves.
But the other side of the coin is that if the threshold of social discontent exceeds a certain limit then it will not be some isolated, easily suppressed outbreak but a violent wave of protest and violence that will spread across the country.

2024-11-15 21:04:33

Damian Duda, a #Poland volunteer medic in #Ukraine, has just posted an incredible story:
For 24 days, the Dnipro tourniquet was on the arm of a soldier of a rifle battalion of one of the ZSU brigades. The soldier was buried under rubble in the ruins of Volchansk. After 22 days, he managed to crawl out. He was spotted during aerial reconnaissance by drone and evacuated two days later by a reconnaissance group. There is not always a chance to save a limb after applying a tourniquet, but a well-placed tourniquet when needed saves lives. In addition to his strong will to live, this man is also characterised by his skills - he survived thanks to effective self-help. This is information for all soldiers: a medic will not always find you. Take care of yourself first. Train every day to the point of muscle memory.
Source: https://x.com/DamianDuda17/status/1857518963443511780
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/830cb5dce71051f69565b68f24b71fab95e7c4c55341cb84acb03bf09b69d0ac.png?name=bupGymneVZx9sA.png
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/1ce089d84915e4dc1fedd46fab32d3a49ae9e5705ddfdc6218d85fc32ac5bdbb.png?name=QoDBDXKpwDGNww.png

2024-11-15 18:17:19

Why do I find it unlikely that #Putin is interested in any truce at this stage? Because a truce without recognising the occupied territories and removing sanctions is a death sentence for the Russian economy. And not only that:
the end of the war (truce, ceasefire) is the end of ‘war communism’ with its euphoria and moral boosting in the media
a million men return from the front with PTSD and - above all - first-hand knowledge of the crimes of Russian commanders against their own soldiers, corruption, looting and crimes against Ukrainians; dozens of their relatives, acquaintances etc. learn about it first-hand
these people are returning to cities with failing infrastructure and widespread corruption, and it is highly doubtful that they will let any official yell at them
the attitude of civilian Russians towards the participants of the “SMO” (special military operation) is ambiguous and far from the myth of the ‘hero’ spread in the media
In conclusion, the participants of the ‘SMO’ would return …. to what? To an USSR with its economy as it was in 1970-1980, with galloping inflation, an economy dominated by military industry and a ‘hydrocarbon bonus’ belonging to a long distant past. Those who survived will probably return, and have a sigh of relief…. but what next?
The belief in the inevitability of a truce at this stage stems, in my opinion, from the Western perception of the Russian economic and military situation, which is objectively dire. Any rational government in this situation would seek to save statehood, if only through a truce. But rationality means using logic to deal with the facts in a specific conceptual grid. The fact that the very decision to launch an ‘SMO’ was irrational for us and fully justified for Putin means that he lives in a drastically different conceptual grid in which the preservation of statehood in general is not necessarily the highest value. As Putin himself used to say, ‘why would we even need a world without Russia’ - and he means that Russia without a victorious leader, personified by Putin, is not a ‘proper Russia’ anymore.
The above means, in my opinion, that regardless of the hopes of some of the world’s leaders, no truce will take place any time soon, primarily because in the formula I described above (without the removal of sanctions) it would benefit everyone except Putin in the long run. And Putin does not want a formula that benefits anyone but him. In his conceptual grid, win-win does not exist.
Unless Trump’s and the EU/NATO’s intentions include some actually treacherous towards Ukraine plan for the allies to capitulate to Moscow in order to force Ukraine’s surrender (after a long and extremely bloody resistance on its part) then the war, even with the current, relatively ‘lukewarm’, level of military and economic support for #Ukraine, will have to drag on for a few more years, but will end in the actual collapse of Russia as it did in 1991.

2024-11-10 19:57:34

#Russia has published what looks like a very open threat or sign of disrespect to the president elect Donald #Trump by posting naked photos of his wife - and now First Lady - Melanie Trump on Russian state TV.
I don’t think there’s anything worse for #Putin than seriously pissed-off Trump, but let’s see what happens next…
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2718ee7a4d563d98ae284ea56f5a6ada65737d24c6b803820f64b6386aed0740.png?name=iJPprowygrwXqQ.png

2024-11-08 11:49:05

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@npub13zd…esqz
I didn’t mention CBAM (this CO2 border compensation) specifically because it will be, as we say in Polish, “mustard after the dinner”.
ETS has been introduced in 2005 and this is when gradual increase of costs for industry started - of course, the purpose of ETS is seemingly rational - to create an economic incentive to reduce CO2 emissions - but it becomes irrational when you leave open the most obvious way of outsourcing your emissions abroad while keeping no tariffs imports.
That’s the bipolar part I meant - you can’t fanatically stick to the “free market” paradigm while creating a massive regulatory intervention in this free market which happens to prohibitively increase costs for your own industry.
As for “intentions vs execution”, this kind of excuse could work for a single person’s actions for a limited period of time. When this happens over 20 years to a whole legislative body involving thousands of experts, lobbyists and lawmakers then it’s equivalent to just what I described it - suicidal negligence.

2024-10-28 09:49:36

#Poland President Duda responded to calls from some Western politicians who say #Ukraine should accept the loss of certain territories:
If you are so generous to Russia, why not give a piece of your land? Why should any sovereign country satisfy Russia? On what grounds does Russia deserve something — especially someone else’s territory?
Original: https://www.prezydent.pl/aktualnosci/wypowiedzi-prezydenta-rp/wywiady/wywiad-prezydenta-rp-dla-the-sunday-times,93375 (in Polish, but originally appeared in The Sunday Times in English)

2024-10-12 17:36:46

Parcel locker service reached Moscow #Russia, someone describes their user experience “you can a QR code, they issue orders, parcels” and ends with a clear sense of ultimate superiority “now show me something like this in Europe! not to mention Ukraine”. They just simply can’t do anything without highlighting their absolute supremacy in everything 🤷 Except I don’t know about other countries, but in Poland first such machines appeared in 2011 😂 And I just now checked - in #Ukraine it was 2014 🤷
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/2926e33d47d25a1cf18186ae3e2ceb69200f8f4a6530b7562de50edce30a1305.png?name=1Qeipa-LrjS1rA.png

2024-10-07 09:30:50

#Linux hint - if you’re using #nftables and #Docker you’ve probably noticed they mess with each other. Docker assumes 100% control over -t nat and drops tons of dynamic rules there, so if you manage it yourself, you’ll overwrite them and everything stops working.
The most reliable solution I’ve found so far is to make iptables a link to iptables-legacy, which can be done using update-alternatives on Ubuntu:
update-alternatives --set iptables /usr/sbin/iptables-legacy
Docker will continue using iptables for managing its dynamic rules, while your actual firewall can be continued to be managed using nft, and they will both coexist in the kernel, while being in separate “namespaces”. Both will be executed, but they won’t overwrite each other.
P.S. #FreeBSD with jails does it a bit more elegantly because pf has a feature called anchors - which is essentially a separate rules namespace which can be linked from the main ruleset so that it doesn’t mess with the application-specific ones. Of course this would be also doable with nftables but Docker project doesn’t seem to care.

2024-09-25 09:29:30

#Russia “fact checking” had been an oxymoron for a while now, but this one is a new record - Russian “War on Fakes” channel debunks the claim that “Russia invaded Finland during WW2, as stated by Finnish president Alexander Stubb”.
How do they debunk it? “Truth: in the night of 22 June 1941 German bombers starting from Finland airfields bombed Soviet territory”.
The problem with this “debunk” is that Soviet invasion on #Finland started on 30 November 1939, two years earlier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/d8446568816ec2ced6834a89549946bb7a37d42be9fe1899d4e4d9f16771956f.png?name=qyMGrk_olng2oA.png

2024-09-19 07:26:05

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@npub17he…2u8r
A wiesz skąd się bierze wysoka temperatury wody w odwiertach geotermicznych? 😉

2024-09-18 11:14:09

I thought it’s a Photoshop but it’s not 😂
https://toropecadm.ru
The website no longer renders correctly, but the Budanov portrait is still hosted here:
https://toropecadm.ru/tinybrowser/_gb8a2297-2_-_kopiya.jpg
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/c894f8f9410039ddb046026f34f34a0344365cd2dabac42787b18f2b757c68a7.png?name=OW3cFQAzoQ5D-A.png

2024-09-14 12:49:07

No, this is no a new CAPTCHA, this is a new malware vector which tricks users to open #Windows command line and paste a command to download some harmful stuff.
Just reported by Mohamed Aruham on Twitter.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/e5b0ebe1e27cd9654d198f19d0e2d8d5d93c2b2a74a02bfd1103a801bbbbe7ed.png?name=wyDCHijCUOa7Fw.png

2024-09-12 06:26:13

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@npub1waf…acly
My phone, my apps.
P.S. „side loading” is a neologism invented by Apple to vilify what is called „installing software” on any other OS

2024-09-07 22:01:37

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@npub1t69…zanc
OMG 😱

2024-09-07 20:53:32

#Russia elections official in Ryazan oblast collapsed into a pit latrine, which was the only sanitary facility on the local polling station located in an ancient, wooden house. She survived. The article doesn’t clarify if there are any objective reasons why a significant share of housing in Russia is missing indoors toilets and are generally unsuitable for living, so we can guess Russian state has other budget priorities.
Source: https://news.rambler.ru/incidents/53374677-... (in Russian)

2024-09-03 16:10:46

Tragedy of Polish school children 😂
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/6db1ecf5a27235d18c9d082efce1751c261110bd42c480561448bb30d8584c55.png?name=XMRahmixD3wF8A.png

2024-09-01 11:16:35

Reading hydro electric plant
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/c109144b74b536a4a7b7885edeb6dfc931731e6600389ce8c366607c36661beb.file?name=0xbA9iPPUnnHGw.file

2024-08-31 17:23:34

LOL co za ciule… #Newag 🤦
https://oko.press/newag-hakerzy-dragon-sector-pociagi-impuls

2024-08-19 19:56:12

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@npub1j6z…qtp8
“Mój stary jest fanatykiem wędkarstwa…” 😉

2024-08-19 19:55:40

The bad news is #Russia has not one but two pontoon bridges across Seym river after all three permanent bridges were demilitarised.
One is near Zvannoe, another near Glushkovo.
The good news is that the latter is where the red dots are shown on FIRMS today 😉
P.S. FIRMS is Fire Information for Resource Management System based on NASA satellite data detecting large fires.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/035201cd533589752087d2e71cf0dd4bb08a16100991e62d531c79305dceed55.png?name=qu1x7nX-wwRohA.png

2024-08-19 18:50:46

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@npub14ua…saes
I don’t expected long life expectancy for Milchakov after the war ends or Putin dies 😉 One of them - Yan Petrovsky - is already jailed in Finland.

2024-08-19 08:25:58

Musk has a point about many people falling for Kadyrov’s rather obvious trolling about “donated Tesla truck”…
Kadyrov’s stunt was intended to cause outrage in the West and it worked 100% simply because neither Western media nor Western media consumers can resist the temptation to compulsively share such a story even if it’s complete bullshit 🤷

2024-08-17 21:09:47

#Russia vs #Ukraine engagement rules
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/78c1a3eea46a0cca1b2919da6d3f7056c1f2cf25a683fab95c22c16d981c68b2.png?name=r0IgieZDg7aeSQ.png

2024-08-17 13:35:51

Klasa Sołtan od dłuższego czasu monitoruje sieć arabskojęzycznych grup, w których organizowany jest przemyt ludzi do UE różnymi kanałami - w tym także przez Białoruś do Polski. Bardzo ciekawy wywiad, w którym opowiada o “kuchni” przemytników i perspektywie ich klientów: jak się organizuje wjazd do Białorusi i do Rosji, komu i za co płacą klienci przemytników, co myślą o Polsce, jaka jest ich motywacja i czy uważają się za uchodźców.
https://youtu.be/YPkJLfLpJEk?si=GTd5hkqdvDpL3GTY

2024-08-15 17:04:44

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@npub1fvv…yw2w Gurulev already told them it’s OK…

2024-08-15 12:15:54

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@npub1mqg…4tp8
You’re 100% right - but technically, it’s interesting :)

2024-08-15 07:17:44

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@npub1df3…ttmt Dokładnie tak.

2024-08-14 19:51:18

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@npub1azu…dd3y
100% agreed and no idea why they did. I can only suspect it was some tribal games between them and PiS but harmful in every aspect.

2024-08-14 17:39:52

#Germany electricity production CO2 intensity with and without #nuclear - last year, Germany’s average annual intensity was ~400 gCO2eq/kWh while France’s was ~50. But if Germany kept nuclear power running, it’s average annual emissions would drop four times to ~100 gCO2eq/kWh.
https://akkoma-media.obj.krvtz.net/akkoma-media/c1df83ece63ad00f7b82e7bc342818ab85b38eabd6830abf76de26daf3db8e3d.png?name=Gn6rqVJkrntfUg.png

2024-08-13 10:57:40

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@npub122j…h3wh Honestly, they could have rounded the number…