Nathaniel Swigger

I’m just a political scientist living in an idyllic Midwestern town…watching the apocalypse happen

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nswigger_at_mstdn.party@mostr.pub

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Last Notes

2024-08-17 12:29:55

Wow, I sure hate the way “populism” doesn’t mean anything so it’s become a label that can get attached to everything to cover up what it’s actually describing.

2024-08-16 14:48:47

The current governor of Florida created a task force to prosecute a couple of dozen black men who did this exact thing. Gosh, I am super-excited for my “rule of law as the basis of a functioning democracy” lecture next week.
https://www.floridabulldog.org/2024/08/trump-may-have-voted-illegally/

2024-08-16 13:09:48

Good morning! Please allow me to join this post and engage in some totally unscientific, vibes-based hopium… https://evanhurst.substack.com/p/hey-whered-all-the-trump-signs-in

2024-08-15 18:46:30

I think I made this joke 6 or 7 months ago https://apple.news/ABuRyslGoQD6T5CgEgMQuhg

2024-08-13 13:01:40

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@npub1mm3…ft6j I’ve spent years complaining about reporters shaping their coverage around their own boredom, so it would be amusing if boredom is the thing that finally sinks Trump.

2024-08-11 22:03:48

Nothing says “I have a fresh angle that’s going to revitalize my campaign” like bringing up the War on Christmas.

2024-08-08 21:02:13

This post is from two days ago and highlights a dynamic that I have found frustrating for years. Trump doesn’t know anything. At all. About anything. Because he doesn’t care to learn anything about anything but himself. I’m really tired of pretending that an obvious dumb asshole is more than a dumb asshole because some people just get too upset at the idea that a dumb asshole could become president: https://goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/project-2025-and-inept-presidenting

2024-08-07 12:19:27

I put zero weight on the “home state boost” theory of VPs. That shit hasn’t worked since the 1890s. Just pick a guy who has some energy and doesn’t feel like he was manufactured by a consulting company. https://davekarpf.substack.com/p/tim-walz-hell-yeah

2024-08-06 12:16:22

The Venn diagram of “edglords who think they will rule the civil war post-apocalyptic hellscape” and “people who can prepare their own food or fix a faucet or repair their own car or can physically run 100 yards” is an empty circle.

2024-08-05 21:24:54

Man, that first sip of scotch after a week without scotch? That’s not a bad sip.

2024-08-03 12:00:46

Good morning, here’s some Saturday political science for you! Today’s source is “What’s good for the goose is bad for the gander” by Steven’s, et al.
Negative attacks in presidential campaigns work when even members of the candidate’s own party have to admit the attack is true.

2024-08-01 22:56:40

I know we all have PTSD and everything, but no, just fucking no, yesterday’s shitshow was not good for Trump. He can get attention for saying weird, dumb racist shit. That just makes people think he’s a weird dumb racist.

2024-07-31 22:51:25

Wanted to share the video because the transcript doesn’t do it justice. It’s. It just the racism, it’s the weird, weak, okd man energy. Seriously, if there’s anyone in your life who is still a swing voter, then show them this video.
https://files.mstdn.party/media_attachments/files/112/883/548/409/734/237/original/fa842df7c6cc94fd.mp4

2024-07-31 00:18:12

Conservatives don’t like Simone Biles.
That’s just fucking weird, man.

2024-07-28 23:09:22

To be clear, the polls still have a response rate less than 1%. The margin of error around reported results is gigantic.

2024-07-25 11:42:55

It’s confusing because when Republicans complain about “elites” they’re not talking about people with money and power who send their kids to Ivy League schools. They’re just mad at anyone who’s cool and popular.

2024-07-21 11:33:38

I thought I was joking with the Jed Bartlett stuff, but there’s Aaron Sorkin writing in the NYT as though he knows anything about actual politics.
Really weird to see how much The West Wing permanently fucked up a certain kind of white, educated liberal.

2024-07-19 00:18:17

I know Biden is old and none of this is fair…but holy shit, man. Trump’s “old man who can’t move but will vaguely shuffle around dance” never gets talked about as a sign of decrepitude and I cannot explain why.

2024-07-13 14:26:02

We introduced the seven year-old to the Pacific Ocean. She flew a kite.
https://files.mstdn.party/media_attachments/files/112/779/640/301/294/794/original/f3b83dd39b28b93e.png

2024-06-26 14:50:35

Hell, I’d settle for a discussion of the current, ongoing fraud. “Mr. Trump, you own a publicly traded media company. What does it actually do or produce? How does the company ever plan to turn a profit?” Since it seems like we should know if a potential president is currently running a large scale fraud.
But it won’t happen because this is all very insane and dumb.
4/

2024-06-22 16:40:12

If you’re not a suburban parent of a small child I can’t fully explain the weirdness of children’s birthday parties.

2024-06-12 13:13:19

Krugman made a similar point yesterday. From the CEOs to your neighborhood Karen, Republicans are all furious that no one will tell them how brilliant and cool they are. The middle-ages white guy who owns a car dealership is going to destroy democracy because his kids don’t laugh at his gay jokes.
https://paulwaldman.substack.com/p/what-if-americas-business-bigwigs

2024-06-09 14:23:36

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@npub1mm3…ft6j The other half didn’t want to bother with men’s sizes or secondhand shops and figured it was easier to just show off their butts. 50% actually sounds like a reasonable estimate for that kind of thing.

2024-06-09 13:19:42

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@npub1mm3…ft6j in their defense, that’s a harder task than you’d think. It’s pretty difficult to find modest women’s workout clothing.

2024-06-09 12:19:05

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@npub1mm3…ft6j ok, man, you’re gonna have to provide some context for that thought.

2024-06-08 23:16:30

I had a random “whatever happened to…” thought about a girl I dated in college so I looked her up and found NO trace of her online.
Does anyone else freak out a little when that happens? Like, I’m sitting here trying to figure out if she ever existed or if I’m having a weird ghost memory or something.

2024-06-07 12:38:22

And they will embrace that ethos because it’s easier to accept “lol nothing in politics matters because everyone is a fraud” than it is to accept that people you love and respect are actually fascists.
End/

2024-06-04 15:52:23

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@npub1mm3…ft6j My only problem with this headline is that it treats this as Biden’s opinion and not a very obvious fact.

2024-05-31 12:03:29

Hey, since we’re revisiting the myth of Trump’s invincibility, would it be okay to revisit the 2016 GOP primary field? I once ended up on a right-wing campus reform website after I told a class (accurately) that it was a large field of extraordinarily weak candi da yes. They were a bunch of losers! The story of Trump’s takeover of the GOP is that they were (and are!) a Potemkin party led by a bunch of bullshitters.

2024-05-30 20:01:00

I just think it’s weird that the New York Times treats a poll commissioned by the New York Times as an independent news event that needs to be covered by the New York Times (on the front page!) with lots of analyses about how the New York Times poll influences other events, including news coverage from the New York Times.

2024-05-21 17:12:47

“So you wanted to use her voice?”
“Right! Because then it would be just like that move! So cool!”
“Uh huh, sure. But she said no?”
“Yes.”
“And you did it anyway?”
“Yes.”
“How did you think she was going to respond to that?”
“Uhhhhhhh……”
Every tech bro has a toddler-like level of theory of mind.

2024-05-20 13:16:59

My dad walked with me to drop off the seven year-old at school. After the 4th or 5th idyllic Midwestern moment he turned to me and said, “Wait, is this normal? Do you just live like this?”

2024-05-15 00:40:32

The reviews and word of mouth were so awful that I had to check out Madame Webb. I just had to.
Wow.
Just…wow.
Was there no one who said, “Hey, the premise of our movie is that a woman who is nine months pregnant would go to an Amazon jungle. Should we rethink this? Is there an easier way to set up this move?”
Were there no humans involved in the making of this movie?

2024-05-11 11:19:51

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@npub1mm3…ft6j All they need is one more round of investment right?

2024-05-01 13:55:29

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@npub1mm3…ft6j Professional what, exactly? Is professional protester a thing? How much does it pay? Asking for a friend.

2024-04-26 12:11:10

What if it’s not just a political tactic? What if Tom Cotton gets genuinely excited at the prospect of using government troops to kill people he disagrees with?

2024-04-23 17:51:17

It’s hard to get mad at students’ research papers when I suspect they could have read quite a lot of reporting and research without ever sentences like, “the solution to homelessness is to build a shit ton of public housing,” or “the solution to all these traffic problems is to close the fucking roads to fucking cars and make people walk or use public transit.”

2024-04-19 22:01:09

Yes, Mainstream Media, it is a “rare coalition” that is advancing the aid bills. Maybe you could use different language *even in the headline* to explain why this rare coalition is necessary instead of just treating everything as a weird mystery of the universe.

2024-04-19 12:41:09

If you think about the economics of the news business, can you think of a single incentive that an outlet would have to run with “Biden is favored to win re-election” as a top story?
Yeah, me neither. Might want to keep that in mind when looking at election coverage.

2024-04-18 12:02:45

We’re at a point where you can tell Republican legislators; “Hey, if you vote for this policy people will die,” and they’ll still vote for it.
And it’s not that they don’t believe you; it’s that they do not fucking care.

2024-04-09 18:57:24

If you’re not talking about major court reform, then you’re only “plan” to address any of our biggest societal problems is hoping the justices die in the most politically advantageous order possible.

2024-04-05 22:38:24

I understand why shelters do this, but holy fucking shit it is fucking ridiculous that I had to provide two references and a vet reference and fill out a 3 page questionnaire just to qualify for a damn cat.

2024-03-31 15:33:54

The future of Florida is Mississippi
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/leaving-florida-rcna142316

2024-03-24 13:11:58

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub17n7…sxdv and god forbid I question the ineffable political insight of Bill Kristol.

2024-03-24 12:39:12

Always and forever note about never-Trump conservatives: All of them either (a) profoundly misunderstood the dynamics of their own political movement and their voters, or (b) lied about those things. For decades.

2024-03-23 15:51:47

THE main story in US politics is that the Republican Party is no longer primarily interested in governing, policy or even winning elections.
It’s main organizational purpose is to keep Trump out of prison and pay his legal bills.

2024-03-21 17:27:29

My not-a-lawyer take: Aileen Cannon is a debate kid, which means she’s a mediocre dipshit. She’s not stupid, per se. She knows lots of big vocabulary words and uses them correctly. She’s memorized lots of talking points and knows when to apply them. But that’s about it. If you tried to probe beneath the talking points, you wouldn’t find anything.
1/2

2024-03-21 12:29:28

Watched the first couple of episodes of X-Men ‘97. Has the online right freaked out about how Disney ruined their childhood by making everything woke or is X-Men the rare example where even the dumbest people always understood the basic theme?

2024-03-19 21:58:41

Listen, Gen X Guys, I hate to tell you this, but the original Roadhouse sucked. Most of the 80’s action movies sucked.

2024-03-19 21:43:06

Why is the NYT referring to the documents case as complex? It’s not complex. It is ridiculously simple. It’s FUCKING SAD how simple it is.

2024-03-18 23:20:01

Sooooo…this seems like it’s a pretty big deal. Like, there no non-horrifyingly-corrupt way for him to resolve this. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/18/trump-civil-fraud-judgment-bond-450-million/

2024-03-18 23:06:32

New York is a city of 8.8 million people. Can they really not find one normal person to be mayor?

2024-03-17 13:03:20

For those wondering how the local press covered it: barely. The rally didn’t make front page news and while stories about it included the bloodbath quote, it was in the fifth or sixth paragraph. The dehumanization of migrants didn’t make the cut.
Just another way the press shrugs off the crazy.

2024-03-15 23:44:21

We’re so numb to this, but think about how many cabinet officials and top ranking White House staff (including his freaking VP!) have admitted Trump is not fit for office.
There is nothing else like this in the modern era and mainstream media is just like, “huh, that’s funny. Can’t imagine that we should point out anything strange is going on.”

2024-03-12 11:18:43

Greetings all down-ballot Republican candidates! Welcome to the face-eating leopards party! https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/11/bloodbath-at-rnc-trump-team-slashes-staff-at-committee-00146368

2024-03-12 11:15:38

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@npub1mm3…ft6j A former colleague once pointed out that he only fun part of climate change will be watching guys like Ron, who definitely thought they were getting a spot on the Ark for special people, realize that they are actually fucked with the rest of us.

2024-03-09 15:53:22

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub17n7…sxdv I was reading a thing about this in a different context. American political commentary (and political science!) often just assumes that whatever conservatives want is the “real” majority and you can see how pervasive this bias is in the way we talk about pretty much any issue.

2024-03-09 15:31:59

Sort of amazing how little traction the White House pill-mill story is getting. Trump staffers were abusing drugs and alcohol just to cope with the stress and dysfunction of that administration.
But, of course, in order to write that story you have to acknowledge that Trump is something weird and dangerous beyond normal politics and god forbid we ever mention that, right? Better write another story about Biden’s age to balance things out!

2024-03-08 13:08:17

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@npub1mm3…ft6j Also pretty funny that he can’t find anyone to loan him $83 million.

2024-03-07 22:17:22

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@npub1sfl…gczt So in her mind are you getting mugged constantly and just refusing to admit it to her?

2024-03-07 13:39:43

I’ll stop harping on this, but there is a Herschel Walker factor in play here. There are times when a candidate’s cognitive shortcomings are so obvious that it doesn’t matter if the media pays attention. Voters will notice it. And it’s not like he’s going to get better. https://www.salon.com/2024/03/07/dr-john-gartner-the-world-is-watching-a-fundamental-breakdown-in-trumps-ability-to-use-language/

2024-03-05 19:49:39

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@npub1sfl…gczt Nah, that would distract her from the podcasting/influencing career she so desperately wants.

2024-03-05 12:56:43

If I just had a little bit less integrity I could make a lot of money as a political consultant. Stupid ethics https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/02/politics/no-labels-biden-trump/index.html

2024-03-01 20:56:30

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@npub1mm3…ft6j It’s weird because y oh can easily see the good movie they could have made. But they just decided not to do that?

2024-02-27 12:33:01

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub17n7…sxdv that’s how the scam works right? Everyone thinks they’re the special one, not like those other suckers.

2024-02-27 12:09:47

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub17n7…sxdv In fairness, it’s not just the Saudi’s. I’m sure more than a few on the investor class will figure it’s worth a few million to buy some favor.

2024-02-27 00:32:09

Nothing will ever be more fake than the idea that Trump’s media company, which produces nothing but a shitty Twitter knock-off, is worth billions of dolllars.
2/2

2024-02-27 00:26:27

So weird that this company, which everyone understands is worthless and will never be a functional business, is suddenly going to be able to provide a huge influx of cash. Weird how that works out. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/business/trump-media-digital-world-acquisition-cash.html?smid=url-share
1/2

2024-02-23 18:32:18

If you go after a party boss it’s better to (a) not break the law and (b) not fail miserably https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/23/wisconsin-ethics-trump-fundraising-charges/

2024-02-22 14:28:16

At this point I half-expect the GOP to come out against the germ theory of disease.

2024-02-18 16:17:49

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@npub1sfl…gczt @npub17n7…sxdv Yeah. College is not the only path to a job. And it makes me feel bad to see these kids go into debt or hand over thousands of dollars pursuing a degree that they are never going to get.

2024-02-18 16:00:45

College isn’t for everyone. I see a couple of students every year who just should not be in college. It makes me wonder what adult in their life encouraged them to do something that they plainly cannot do.

2024-02-14 16:19:20

I will not be reading this book. This review explains many reasons why you do not need to read this book. All you really need is this: these guys watched Democrats win a majority of the vote in 4 straight national elections and then decided to write a book about how the party is declining: https://newrepublic.com/article/178453/democrats-woke-politics-phantom-menace

2024-02-08 13:32:03

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@npub1sfl…gczt Good luck!

2024-02-07 00:19:35

Guys, I’m starting to think Mike Johnson might not be a very good Speaker.

2024-02-06 23:43:00

I don’t think border security is a good campaign issue. No one outside MAGA cares and even for MAGA it’s not really about the border.

2024-01-31 20:59:18

Also, I found out which of my students are Swifties and they are exactly who I would have guessed.

2024-01-26 15:48:56

I think almost everyone, among both politicians and voters, who talks about the “border crisis” knows that it’s fake.

2024-01-24 00:47:15

My gut, which is not a reliable source of information, says Haley won’t drop out after tonight unless it’s the results are truly humiliating. She’ll stay in as long as she has the cash to keep campaigning. Why not? It’s not like she has a day job or a future in Republican politics.

2024-01-16 13:23:28

“Trump wins 51%, with universal name recognition and a robust organization. 49% of voters go for group of schmucks who won’t even criticize him when he directly attacks them,” is a little less impressive, right?
2/2

2024-01-16 13:21:43

I don’t think we learned anything because I don’t think the caucuses matter. But framing is interesting. “Trump wins by 30 points in blowout” sounds pretty impressive, but…
1/2

2024-01-15 12:14:23

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub16am…scuf He’s looked bad for years. The makeup and hair dye make him look weird, which has hidden it.

2024-01-11 13:34:24

I like the lead actor, but the first episode of Echo was pretty bad. An interesting opening sequence followed by endless, pointless flashbacks. It was boring.

2024-01-09 12:27:01

By “us” I can only assume Goldberg means “everyone who works at the New York Times”
https://files.mstdn.party/media_attachments/files/111/725/983/651/572/620/original/ed4549689069116b.png

2024-01-09 02:37:44

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@npub1sfl…gczt Does that count as a collector’s item at this point?

2024-01-01 22:15:20

Got curious and read the Silo books. The first one’s not bad, but the rest of the series is god-awful.
On the other hand, I’m really enjoying the Murderbot Diaries.

2023-12-31 21:50:16

Trapped on a boarding line watching commercials, and good lord these cbs shows all look terrible.

2023-12-29 13:32:08

I’m not a lawyer. But if you’re making the case that throwing Trump off the ballot will cause chaos you are missing the point. Trump and MAGA are chaos. They will cause chaos as long as they are a political force. They will not follow the law, they will not recognize electoral losses, they will not govern.
Confronting them is not causing chaos. It is recognizing that chaos exists and trying to put an end to it.

2023-12-04 14:51:38

The problem with a pro-democracy rule of law coalition is that it’s kind of like trying to sell voters a car by saying, “Look, it’s got four wheels and the engine works. What else could you possibly want?!”

2023-12-02 00:28:47

I’m old enough to remember when this sort of headline was mildly surprising https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/11/a-florida-gop-leader-a-moms-for-liberty-founder-and-allegations-of-group-sex-and-rape/

2023-12-01 13:11:05

I believe that never-Trump conservatives are offering advice in good faith…But I can’t help noticing that their advice is almost always terrible. Like, maybe if these people were any good at understanding voters they wouldn’t have been driven out of their own party, you know?

2023-11-30 14:13:49

Drezner makes a good point: Kissenger’s greatest trick was figuring out how to get rich after leaving public service. https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/on-the-matter-of-henry-kissingers

2023-11-19 14:20:58

Sure, I wish the press would be more explicit about his corruption and contempt for law and democracy. But I would settle for reporters pointing out that Trump was actually president and he proved to be totally incompetent.

2023-11-12 21:49:52

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@npub1mm3…ft6j @npub14vn…8aaw I’ve heard an army of trans Hamas soldiers has already crossed the border because of Biden’s open borders policy and their distributing fentanyl to kids during a drag time story hour where they teach critical race theory.

2023-10-30 11:20:04

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@npub1mm3…ft6j Yeah I’m trying to play a cat video for my daughter and it’s buggy as hell. We’ve loaded this thing six times. It randomly skipped to the end at one point. Good stuff.

2023-10-29 15:53:58

Mike Pence is a religious extremist. He’s also an in charismatic doofus. His campaign’s failure tells us primary voters do not want to support an uncharismatic doofus. Don’t bother reading anything else into it.

2023-10-25 19:28:23

The chaos isn’t over. The dysfunction isn’t over. What do you think will happen to Johnson if he makes any kind of budget deal?

2023-10-24 16:38:41

I would like to thank everyone who said “they won’t do that,” or told me I was being alarmist. Thank you for being completely fucking wrong: https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?artguid=4f8e4b17-0858-4304-a399-40fe140f1505&appcode=DMNUAT&eguid=7df63849-369f-4317-af5c-7b7a2129bdec&pnum=34#

2023-10-17 15:38:49

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@npub1mm3…ft6j just looking forward to the “moderate” republicans who are going to talk about how good it is to get back to business and move forward with policy as though Jordan has the slightest ability to do any of that. This is dead-parrot-sketch levels of denial and dysfunction.

2023-10-17 15:05:56

There would be a 0% chance of Speaker Jim Jordan striking a budget deal and avoiding a shutdown and it’s only 0 because probabilities can’t be negative numbers.