flix
Flix

Bitcoin, Nostr, history, sci-fi...

Public Key

npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78px

NIP-57 Address

flix@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxrp2fw6ap55utnhldrvwlndpw2asz0y8fx4x9nzgmu7ehz0dkxlqyq4gll

Author Public Key

npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78px

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Last Notes

2025-05-22 11:14:54

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This is HD. Let's see if Nostr doesn't degrade it. If you don't get it, dm me and I'll send you a pdf or vector.
https://blossom.primal.net/6b12cf4f7b4a3aea7e68acc1af4cfb84d7591c9b8c19e8aa84d40f820ca83fa8.jpg

2025-05-22 11:12:24

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Absolutely! Let me try to get the highest res possible so that you can zoom in.

2025-05-22 11:04:13

#timeline #history #hispano
https://blossom.primal.net/191b60a307199579e60bea97c88ba63b31867f885f9ddac87c63610499d5a310.jpg

2025-05-21 15:36:52

🟠📈

2025-05-21 13:07:05

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Mad Max is going to be super boring!

2025-05-20 10:32:00

Japan's situation has been deteriorating for 20 years... but it looks like we've reached a point of acceleration in the bond market. This might actually blow up soon!
You can't pay 2% interest with 240% debt/gdp, no growth and rising inflation.
https://blossom.primal.net/8c341cf895e84102ebafc1ae2d53bd7e9ed5865737aad7b9bdfeef6d8cb4f38e.png

2025-05-19 16:40:14

Loving the replies! Nostr is so decentralised that even big names like Jack get called out for their stupid takes and they have to take it.
On X Elon would have shadowbanned half his critics by now or changed the algo to benefit his argument.
#nevent1q…n607

2025-05-19 13:48:55

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Here, this should get you through the next couple of cycles.
https://blossom.primal.net/80957d9bc1164e84d2e9f851582a8aeeb2a8562982a9646917953aa76a68dbf8.png

2025-05-19 12:00:29

#sats
https://blossom.primal.net/7df93de5d473a9783f792b389307c8ab752a4d0a4f828d3c7a470c367cd5c738.png

2025-05-19 11:13:22

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https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs8pf2jujkjm4cjryh76gf87elfrmvduj9t36uvv8uu999ucm8v78qlumc4s

2025-05-19 08:30:31

If we are going to play silly games with the unit debate, I want to play too!
Just for fun, here's my proposal for a few multiple and fractional bitcoin unit names.
Disclaimer: It's really stupid to try to plan these things top down, people will end up making up all kinds of local, jargon, fun names and use whatever they want no matter what devs think. You can't plan language! Emergent order...
@nprofile…fmt5 5000
https://blossom.primal.net/e502b26896f73c098f0ca6c951c60015dfe2f52fe6f1696a9790cf4c1ff0fe09.png

2025-05-18 19:02:42

One syllable bias > unit bias
People will adapt to as many unit names as you want to throw out, use whichever is most convenient for each occasion, adapt to changing value of each... even adapt to local usage meaning smtg different.
But they will always shorten long names to shorter ones for frequently used words. Often converging one one syllable.
"Buck", "clam", "sim", "bean", "bit"... have all been widely used at some point.

2025-05-15 12:50:46

#DEX #P2P #Privacy
@nprofile…x8cv 10000
https://blossom.primal.net/b9b04b050781c761a2716672d3e6ed6a1981e37eedab4defd25949da9735c33f.jpg

2025-05-15 12:15:13

https://kycnot.me/
@nprofile…x8cv 5000
#nevent1q…7u9y

2025-05-15 12:14:23

ALL DATABASES WILL LEAK.
KYC is a threat vector.
Privacy is the first line of defense.
#nevent1q…7u9y

2025-05-13 12:02:16

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Where can your paper be read in full?

2025-05-06 11:39:22

Nostr is very necessary.
https://blossom.primal.net/d99222e4d3838dbac08003f44462b33e3a5443e7f6e8e43e723dfcac9ea4936d.png

2025-05-06 11:19:33

Agromundo podcast. Aranceles y regulación. #hispano
@nprofile…fmt5 10000
https://youtu.be/PIRfAJPKy_I

2025-05-05 13:13:39

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I think @nprofile…gzxw has polls.

2025-05-05 10:30:08

#timeline #history
Rivers.
@nprofile…x8cv 25021
https://blossom.primal.net/a8321ab9a7ff2a0b9f1bd4aad1da39e029fc5131c7069a57190a9247afcd198a.jpg

2025-05-03 15:57:03

Let me try this again...
⚡️🤖
@nprofile…x8cv 10000

2025-05-01 15:04:57

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Pics please!

2025-05-01 15:01:02

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You can shape a strawberry bush... and I prefer strawberries to the other options for that same month 😉

2025-05-01 14:57:54

Fruit tree calendar.
https://blossom.primal.net/749a8140ecb06ad6768dbbb6080b4de09b4be031326c1c2b2039e715746d6f45.png

2025-05-01 13:30:24

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I zoomed in 😆

2025-04-20 21:19:38

#G20 is a masterpiece.
Absolute must watch 😆
https://m.primal.net/QXdg.jpg

2025-04-11 21:12:58

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R² > 0.95 is huge.
Congrats!

2025-04-08 16:00:43

ANCAP 2100 🟨⬛️
What would an ancap 22nd century look like?
First definitions. Anarchy is the absence of a ruler. The absence of nation-state style sovereignty, a monarch or an emperor. More abstractly it would be the absence of an entity with the monopoly of force in a certain area.
In practical terms it means no central authority with the capacity to impose its will on the entire population, be it by collecting taxes or enforcing laws.
A country or territory with no army, no taxes and no centralised police force would be anarchic, even if its nominal government claimed to rule, in the absence of the capacity to do so it would be an empty vessel.
We have plenty of examples in history of large territories in such a situation, where distance from the seat of government made it impractical to collect taxes or enforce laws.
We also have plenty of examples of government being so local and fragmented that both laws and taxes could only be enforced on a small area, in competition with neighbouring polities. A large swathe of history is the history of competing city states. Empires are a relatively late development in human history, nation states even more so. Even early empires had to allow a great degree of local autonomy if they wanted to survive. The Achaemenid Persian Empire being a prominent example, which the alexandrian successor states adopted. Until transport and communication technology made it possible, most government was local government.
Competition between local governments and the easy possibility of exit kept the abuse of power in check to some degree.
But would we call a collection of city states anarchy? Some statists call anything more decentralised than one world government anarchy! We can be more discriminating... Neither competing local governments nor a collection of tribes is anarchy, at least not as long as each of these polities has the power to maintain a monopoly of force within its own territory, extract taxes and impose laws. Regardless of whether this is done democratically, by a dictator or a priest king.
Of course a lonely sheriff in a remote town, perhaps elected and backed by a citizen militia, called only when needed, paid a salary by the same people that elect him, would have a lot of trouble imposing any tyrannical law or tax. Not when his enforcers and voters are the same people that he has to extort.
Current transport and communication technology makes this independence, decentralisation and self-reliance possible but unlikely to be widespread. Just as it took the collapse of the Roman Empire to allow a vacuum into which the more decentralised Feudal government structures could develop, it would take the total collapse of the current nation-state system for local autonomy to flourish again.
The conscious, intentional construction of a system of anarchy would be a very different development and could happen peacefully and gradually. It would not require an apocalyptic destruction of the current system. It could develop as an ideological movement, much as democracy did in the 18th century and gradually spread from one or a few new polities to the rest. The american revolution is a prime example. Independence from the British Empire happened in the right intellectual climate that the revolutionaries deliberately set out to build a Republic. Similarly the French Revolution attempted to build a Roman inspired Republic. Unlike the americans they failed in the short term... but the important thing to keep in mind is that 18th century revolutionaries shared the republican ideal, just as many 19th or 20th century revolutionaries shared marxist ideals. Not just revolutionaries! Reformers in Britain, Switzerland and many other places shared the ideals of the time. They preferred reform and gradualism to war and revolution... but their goals were similar!
This leads us to the first important key: the ideas of anarchy are a prerequisite. When the intelectual foundations are built, change will eventually happen. The battle of ideas is the most important one.
However it is not the only one. Once enough critical mass is built, a real world experiment is necessary. Success breeds success. Example is the best teacher. Tangible, visible reality is the best killer of strawman arguments.
The second that you start to touch real and practical concerns, intellectual anarchists will criticise any attempt to "centrally plan" an anarchist society. So let me preface this with the caveat that nobody knows the future and nobody knows which political experiments will succeed and which will fail. Nevertheless just as entrepreneurs plan their business models and then have to adapt to reality, political entrepreneurs should have a detailed plan for a new political experiment, even if that plan is flexible and open to change. This is of course compatible with a thousand alternative plans competing to make the best model of an anarchist "constitution".
So allow me to imagine some possible ancap foundation stories, which then could spread to -not- rule the world.

2025-04-07 08:39:29

A little scenario analysis for stocks of the consequences of the tariff crisis. Ranging from "Joking LOL!" to "China invades Taiwan".
https://m.primal.net/QHHU.png

2025-04-05 17:57:25

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Using relative measures is also a type of bias. The chinese Song Dynasty looks as powerful as the British Empire in some of those charts... I'd like to see the data!
I guess I'll have to buy the book.

2025-04-05 17:53:05

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There is quite a bit of bias or course. The Spanish, German, French, Indians might have quite a bit to say about it. But bias is inevitable. Just discount for it.

2025-04-05 17:50:03

Loving this Ray Dalio vid. Thanks @nprofile…zx3h
As a student of economic history, there's nothing I like more than attempts at consistent economic metrics for 500+ years.
https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8

2025-04-05 17:45:28

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https://m.primal.net/QFTy.png
https://m.primal.net/QFTz.png

2025-04-05 11:50:06

Since Trump's first term it was clear that he was serious about keeping his campaign promises...
IMHO 2 bad ones:
1. Tariffs
2. Immigration
...and 2 good ones:
3. Lower taxes
4. Peace
He is now proving again that he meant what he said.
He is serious about increasing tariffs as was made painfully clear last week. He is serious about cracking down on immigration, although that is much easier said than done.
He seems to be attempting to pressure both sides into peace degotiations in Ukraine. It's a very tough deal to broker... but I believe that he will put all his clout into achieving it.
He is still to annouce his tax plan, but if the past serves as a guide he will pass large tax cuts in the US. Significant enough to offset the damage done to US corps by tariffs.
What he will not be able to do is balance the budget and reverse the US debt crisis. The cuts necessary to do that are just not politically viable in the US. He would need Milei-style shock therapy. My bet is that he won't even get close to trying, with DOGE never being allowed to come close to the big budget items (welfare, military, etc..).
So we can expect the debt bubble to increase until it pops.
Bitcoin will be there as a lifeboat when it happens.

2025-04-05 11:23:21

#timeline #history #hispano
50 siglos de historia
https://m.primal.net/QFBy.jpg

2025-04-01 08:28:36

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Tu ve acumulando los zaps... y le vas informando que cuando quiera reclamar la cuenta se los entregas. 😉
Así la recompensa va creciendo.

2025-04-01 08:07:28

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Gran iniciativa. Una de las pocas cosas que echo de menos desde dejar twitter es el contenido de Rallo.
¡Gracias!

2025-03-31 10:22:42

Dinero: Un viaje desde Mesopotamia hasta el Bitcoin
Daniel Fernández
@nprofile…yve6
https://m.primal.net/PzOX.png
https://m.primal.net/NzrM.png

2025-03-27 12:35:43

It's so funny to see the EU recommending emergency kits...
I can imagine an american go-bag would include some items that are missing here...
https://m.primal.net/PvCL.jpg

2025-03-27 12:17:17

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Some of the greatest novels were published serially and had a lot of public feedback...

2025-03-20 15:51:54

@nprofile…r8ms
https://m.primal.net/Pmif.jpg

2025-03-02 18:17:49

Trump names cryptocurrencies in strategic reserve; prices spike
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-cryptocurrency-strategic-reserve-includes-xrp-sol-ada-2025-03-02/

2025-03-02 14:41:33

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Sponsor funds the map, players earn and spend... and keep any winnings when they quit.

2025-03-02 14:37:10

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How about tiberium harvesting gets you sats and then you have to spend them on in-game troops and buildings?

2025-03-02 14:07:34

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What was your idea anyway?
How would you have integrated LN⚡️ or zaps as part of the gameplay?

2025-02-11 14:54:56

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Writing from my new Framework laptop! Thank you so much for the tip.
I chose the DIY option even though I'm a noob. I managed to build it, install Ubuntu, etc...

2025-02-10 08:34:45

22 BC #timeline
https://m.primal.net/OZER.jpg

2025-02-07 13:54:32

Big propaganda push in Europe to ID all social media users.
Nostr is essential.

2025-02-04 16:25:00

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I love the idea of repairable and upgradable laptops. My last 3 laptops died of some silly part failures (battery, fan, battery) that should have been trivial to repair or replace... but it could not be done...
I'll seriously study and consider Framework.

2025-02-04 14:50:43

My PC is dying, have to get a new one soon.
I want to transition to Linux... but am a bit clueless and worried that I won't be able to access the tools I need.
Any recommendations? OS? office suite? Bitcoin utilities?

2025-02-03 09:06:31

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They are legit. I know Dave.

2025-02-03 08:19:01

You should get them to tag maps, take pics, spend sats! @npub1cn6…wt8a @npub1864…t2tq
I'd love to see if they can spend sats in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia!
#note1qt0…rpp7

2025-01-30 08:21:48

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Also #Iran #Vietnam #Belarus #Turkmenistan or any other highly censored country.

2025-01-30 08:18:39

I'd like to test the limits of Nostr censorship resistance.
Anyone from #China #Cuba #Venezuela here please reply and I will zap ⚡️

2025-01-27 17:39:17

It's interesting how banking apps like Revolut have gradually adopted Bitcoin.
1st allowed buy/sell bitcoin within closed system.
2nd allowed withdrawals to external wallet.
3rd allowed deposits from external wallet.
Next: Lightning Network integration.
This process has been similar in Paypal and others. It's interesting because I believe that traditional banks will copy it on their apps. Then, suddenly, we will find that a majority of the adult population will have a bitcoin app by default. Once that critical mass is reached... Bitcoin payments and circular economy can begin to take off.
When Bitcoin is widely accepted for payments... many people will start to question: why have a bank account at all? All I need is a Bitcoin wallet!

2025-01-27 16:24:43

Me temo que esto ya no es parodia.
https://www.elmundotoday.com/2021/05/renfe-descubre-ahora-que-lleva-con-la-web-hackeada-desde-2006/

2025-01-24 21:10:16

Muy bueno el documental. Espero que se emita en todas las plataformas.
Por cierto, serán muy bienvenidas todas las ideas sobre plataformas Bitcoin o Nostr donde emitirlo. Los creadores están dispuestos a experimentar...
#note14j7…955f

2025-01-22 12:41:12

Bitcoin company map 2.
I've added some tradfi representation. Financial companies and banks that offer Bitcoin products or services: Revolut, BlackRock, Microstrategy, Fidelity, etc...
https://m.primal.net/Nudn.jpg

2025-01-19 11:34:16

Any refugees from #tiktok coming to Nostr?
https://m.primal.net/Nnjq.jpg

2025-01-14 17:35:33

Funny that many books are now cheaper in paperback than on Kindle... Amazon is flexing its market power.
https://m.primal.net/NgXk.png
Any recommended open source ebook readers, markets platforms?

2025-01-14 16:44:09

Joe Rogan Experience #2255 - Mark Zuckerberg
https://youtu.be/7k1ehaE0bdU

2025-01-08 11:25:29

Estreno de INCONFISCABLE 24 ENERO a las 19h.
@nprofile…3rg3
https://valueschool.es/evento/inconfiscable-como-proteger-tu-patrimonio-portatil-y-secreto/
https://m.primal.net/NXZq.png

2025-01-07 17:23:19

For the past few days I've had trouble zapping ⚡️ some notes from @npub12vk…pugg but then successfully zapped them from @npub1nz6…0w5y
I don't know what the disconnect is... any ideas?

2025-01-07 15:50:00

Zuck admits censorship, government pushing for censorship and that he of course complied.
Why would you trust him to defend free speech?
No Elon, Zuck, Jack, Justin, Joe, Donald, Xi or Ursula should decide what you can say.
Just use #Nostr

2025-01-05 17:09:42

Zodiac calendar
https://m.primal.net/NTVY.png

2025-01-05 17:02:13

#timeline
https://m.primal.net/NTUz.png

2025-01-04 12:05:47

Guess the author.
https://m.primal.net/NRcl.jpg

2025-01-03 10:43:43

To celebrate January 3rd, I will zap everyone that posts on Nostr using #ProofofKeys today!
🔑🔑🔑

2025-01-03 09:54:10

#ProofofKeys
Exercise your self-custody or lose it!
https://m.primal.net/NQFA.jpg

2025-01-03 09:48:50

January 3rd is Proof of keys day. On proof of keys day, we exercise self-custody to celebrate Bitcoin as a store of value.

2024-12-29 13:22:49

MiCA kicking USDT out of European centralised exchanges will be a boon for P2P and DEX.
USDT remains the highest volume market.
My reading of MiCA is that P2P is outside of scope and therefore not subject to the requirements imposed by this directive on centralised exchanges (VASP and CASP). Please let me know if I'm wrong about this.
Fully P2P markets like Bisq, Robosats, Vexl, LNP2PBot, Mostro, HodlHodl... have a huge opportunity to capture siginificant share of this huge market.
For traders, market makers and liquidity providers there is an opportunity for profit. Liquidity is thin right now in these markets. They can easily charge 3-5% to bridge the gap.
Trading in USDT/BTC means that you can provide this service from anywhere in the world! You also avoid banks, which are the biggest source of friction in P2P trades.
Eventually USDT/BTC will be atomic swaps ⚛️. Making trades faster, safer and easier!

2024-12-29 13:08:41

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That seems like an opportunity for a market maker to make a profit by increasing liquidity. Would you pay 3% more to not wait for weeks?

2024-12-29 13:01:56

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I hope that you've noticed that P2P is exempt from VASP requirements in MiCA @npub1sqn…5net @npub1rec…lju2 @npub1536…pswl @npub1yul…ncdu @npub1mft…rkl3 @npub1m0s…40un

2024-12-29 12:56:17

MiCA kicking USDT out of European centralised exchanges will be a boon for P2P and DEX.
USDT remains the highest volume market.

2024-12-28 11:59:30

#timeline #history
Adding dates and events... probably need to work on higher res... zoom out makes smaller font unreadable.
https://m.primal.net/NJJn.jpg

2024-12-26 12:27:21

It's going faster than expected!
#note16qr…z3el
https://m.primal.net/NHHp.jpg

2024-12-24 16:05:39

#timeline #history
Added some colour to represent territory...
Not precise. Will improve in the future...
https://m.primal.net/NFSR.jpg

2024-12-23 19:34:13

Nostr users are 1% of Twitter. Rumble is 1% of Youtube. But they will show the way allowing content creators to earn sats. When they grow to 5%... the big players will capitulate and follow.
It's easy and there's little downside.
Once that happens millions of people will be able to earn sats. They will then want to spend them.
The next cycle will be about payments. Bitcoin as MoE.

2024-12-23 17:14:08

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Gradual responsability for different amounts is moot?
Remind me how it works with dollars and euros...

2024-12-23 17:12:59

#timeline #history
https://m.primal.net/NEUJ.jpg

2024-12-23 15:43:18

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It's not binary. It's a a gradient. You don't need the same self control to self custody 1000 sats as you need to to self custody a million sats.
Can everyone be trusted to keep 1 BTC safe for a decade? Probably not.
But you can probably trust most 10 year olds to keep 1000 sats safe for a month and most adults to keep 100k sats safe for a year.

2024-12-22 19:32:31

Good thing to come out of the pandemic is that all the closet authoritarians in govt outed themselves.
Bad news is many are still in power.
They need to be purged from any position of authority.

2024-12-18 12:54:41

A pesar de ver con claridad los ataques crecientes contra la libertad de expresión, todavía no consigo que Juan Ramón Rallo y otros se vengan a Nostr.
Comprendo los incentivos comerciales actuales... pero también hay que pensar un poco en el futuro.
https://youtu.be/750OohYt4m4

2024-12-17 12:37:39

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I am unsatisfied with my solution. I want something even better.

2024-12-17 12:32:34

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So create a corporate custodial wallet? But why not just use an existing one?
Why reinvent the wheel... if Primal, Zebedee or strike have already built it... why build your own?

2024-12-17 12:18:23

What is the fastest, simplest way to distribute 1000 sats each to a million people?
Imagine that you are a business owner with a million people on payroll and you want to give them each 1000 sats to start learning to use Bitcoin... how would you do it?
No imagine that you want to add a bitcoin bonus to their monthly wages and send them each 1000 sats every month...

2024-11-29 14:52:53

After struggling for a few days with my LND node on @npub126n…e9ll while trying to connect it to @npub1get…0nfm hub... I realise how early we still are.
In a few years it will all be plug-and-play. Just the same as your Internet router is just a box that's in your house and you forget about (except maybe when a guest needs the wifi password)... maybe with additional security features like a physical keyfob that you keep somewhere safe.
The company that gets there first will deserve to make a mint!
Start9, Casa, Umbrel, Alby and others are doing a great job simplifying UX... but there's still a lot of work to do!

2024-11-27 15:33:19

2025-2026 is a key empirical test level for the hypothesis that Bitcoin is following an internet-like global adoption curve.
Bitcoin should jump the chasm, reaching 15% adoption, by 2026.
That means 1-1.2bn users.
According to various estimates in 2024 Bitcoin reached 600 million users.
This number would need to double by 2026.
Considering past growth that would not be a difficult feat.
https://m.primal.net/Migs.jpg

2024-11-24 12:32:43

NOSTR vs Tech Monopolies, the Future of Social Media & Primal 2.0 - MILJAN (THE Bitcoin Podcast)
https://youtu.be/kqR_IQfKic8
@npub16c0…6nvr @npub1cj8…rz4u
Excellent talk. Congrats!

2024-11-14 12:51:38

#timeline #history #Sevilla
https://m.primal.net/MCxE.jpg

2024-11-09 18:21:24

"If we don't have free speech, then we just don't have a free country." Donald J. Trump. 2024.
Engrave these words in stone. Once they reach power, they will be the first to forget.
Remember the Alien and Sedition Acts
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_and…
The same revolutionaries that wrote the Bill of Rights attacked free speech a few years later.

2024-11-05 14:57:17

Bitcoin price is going to give us the election result 12 hrs before old media.

2024-11-05 10:51:42

- reply

Combined p2p order book FTW!

2024-11-04 10:35:18

Civilisation, like infrastructure, requires a lot of maintenance.
Maintenance is not sexy, popular or fun. It's easy to forget, downplay or undefund it.
When you underfund maintenance effects are not immediately apparent. By the time the problem is obvious it's often late.

2024-10-30 09:47:17

IF...
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

2024-10-22 10:54:10

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With 2024 data, I would assign the following probabilities:
INTERNET 60%
E-GOLD 5%
BETAMAX 15%
TULIP 0%
FAIL 0%
NICHE 20%
We can discard the FAIL scenario. It's incompatible with current adoption data. We can also discard the TULIP scenario since 2017. Recurring booms are not part of a mere one-off financial bubble.
Can we completely discard E-GOLD? Could the government still shut down Bitcoin? I believe the evidence, including goverments that have already tried, says that this is highly unlikely.
Could something better make Bitcoin obsolete? I think it unlikely in the short term, but it's never impossible in tech.
Could Bitcoin adoption stagnate at current levels and never reach mainstream penetration? Remaining a NICHE tech for the foreseeable future? It's possible... but we will know very soon. Data coming in the next couple of years will answer the question of whether Bitcoin can cross the chasm.
I would argue that we already have enough data to answer that, but we will definitely have more than enough soon.
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2024-10-22 10:41:57

Bitcoin adoption scenarios.
Imagine that we are back in 2008, reading Satoshi's Bitcoin whitepaper. We attempt to predict what the future holds for Bitcoin and we imagine a number of possible scenarios. We assign probabilities to them and describe what each of them will look like in terms of adoption, users, etc.
They range from INTERNET scenario that predicts Bitcoin will follow a tech adoption S-curve to a FAIL scenario that expects Bitcoin, like most of new projects, to never take off.
With 2008 knowledge... you would probably have assigned a very large probability to FAIL, maybe up to 90%. But even if the INTERNET scenario only had a 1% probability... as Hal Finney quickly saw, the risk-reward for owning some Bitcoin was incredibly positive. The rational decision was to mine/buy some "in case it takes off" even with very little knowledge.
Now let's fast forward to the 2013 Bitcoin bubble. The price has risen to $1000+. There are maybe over 1 million Bitcoin users. We can look back at the original scenarios and adjust probabilities. The FAIL scenario, which had 90% probability now has to be completely discarded. The adoption and price action could now indicate a higher probability for the TULIP or BETAMAX scenarios... or maybe you still think that government will shut down Bitcoin like it did with E-GOLD and so assign a 60% probability to that scenario. However given the evidence at that point... you do have to raise the probability of INTERNET to at least 3%. With a 3% probability of multiplying value by millions... once more the rational decision is to have a greater than zero amount of Bitcoin.
Now imagine that you are in 2017. Bitcoin is at $20k. What probability would you assign to each scenario with the information that you had then?
How about in 2021? 2024?
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2024-10-18 12:00:50

4 possible futures for money:
1. Govcoins: the government can print money.
2. Corpcoins: corporations print money.
3. Shitcoins: everyone prints money.
4. Bitcoin: nobody prints money.
https://m.primal.net/LZpK.png

2024-10-13 19:36:47

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You might like this one @npub1rt6…0y9g

2024-10-13 19:35:18

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BTW I have been following your carpet designs for a while. I'd love to see one with a historical timeline!