Peter du Toit

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureWork IQ | En-ROADS Climate Ambassador | I speak about the future of work in the face of the climate crisis | b. 316 ppm | 🇿🇦

𝗠𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆: Posts are set to auto delete after 30 days in an endeavour to assist with keeping server storage at a minimum. Important archives on listed blogs!

𝗡𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗿: https://iris.to/peterdutoit

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peterdutoit_at_mastodon.green@mostr.pub

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Last Notes

2024-09-02 06:18:39

“The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate.”
“We must open our minds to this if we want to be prepared.”
Background long-term heating +1.3°C
1.5°C imminent
#Adaptation conversations are becoming urgent in *many* places!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/02/australia-august-weather-records-heat-wind-storm-bom-forecast/
#ClimateCrisis #Australia

2024-09-01 08:04:22

We are in no way shape or form prepared for what is to come.
To avoid power blackouts "some machinery and auto parts makers have halted operations and some shopping centers and large supermarkets in Chengdu are shutting off air conditioning during the peak hours of 11 a.m. to 3 p.m."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Extreme-heat-in-China-triggers-power-warnings-factory-stoppages/
#ClimateCrisis #China #Heatwaves

2024-08-25 06:48:46

NEW: First comprehensive global evaluation of 1,500 climate policy measures from 41 countries across six continents.
“Only 63 cases of successful climate policies, leading to average emission reductions of 19 percent, were identified. The key characteristic of these successful cases is the inclusion of tax and price incentives in well-designed policy mixes.”
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/what-works-groundbreaking-evaluation-of-climate-policy-measures-over-two-decades
#ClimateCrisis
1/

2024-08-24 06:25:42

“Oh we don’t care what it’s doing to the planet or peoples health! All we are concerned about is making money!”
This is the situation in China but basically repeated everywhere!
Fossil fuels + capitalism a deadly combination.
#ClimateCrisis
https://www.science.org/content/article/have-china-s-carbon-emissions-peaked-answer-critical-limiting-global-warming
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/113/015/569/672/793/310/original/30ea224d5fcd7c36.jpeg

2024-08-19 12:31:59

This is an important data point for the #EU
"Based on six months of data, EU27 fossil CO2 emissions have declined nearly 7% (Jan-Jun). Coal has had a substantial drop (23%)."— Glen Peters
Source: bsky.app/profi…
#ClimateCrisis #Mitigation
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/988/697/243/400/613/original/89a109a63aac306b.jpg

2024-08-18 07:10:03

#France:
Car parks with space for 80 cars or more are now required by law to be covered with solar panels.
- Parks between 80-400 spaces have 5 years to comply
- Parks with spaces of 400+ have 3 years to comply
This will result in about 11 gigawatts of power.
This should be required everywhere!
#ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #Electrification
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/981/770/342/575/758/original/ff279f44b20c8b96.jpeg

2024-08-17 11:30:01

It is slowly dawning on more and more people that the projections that global GDP is going to take a major hit as we continue to heat is accurate.
Billions of $'s, £'s and €'s are *already* needing to be spent on infrastructure repair and we are "only" at +1.3ºC of heating.
What happens at +1.5ºC and then 2ºC?
We know the answer.
#ClimateCrisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/15/cost-of-fighting-flooding-is-soaking-up-english-councils-cash-ministers-warned

2024-08-17 07:50:04

Reality check - mid 2024
What are the emission reduction requirements for 2025, now that we have failed at the 2024 requirement?
Asking for the children.
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/976/317/044/352/420/original/97424ed84964d3ba.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/976/318/733/323/322/original/c273e0b3b2c3aecd.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/976/320/607/743/303/original/e38a28508ce96584.jpeg

2024-08-11 13:08:45

Its getting real even at 1.3ºC of heating. What happens at 1.5ºC, which is now imminent?
"The only path forward for homeowners in markets that will be hit hardest by an exorbitant rise in home insurance premiums is to sell and move — before their neighbors do"
https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-housing-market-outlook-climate-change-flood-insurance-burt-2024-8
#ClimateCrisis

2024-07-27 09:27:52

Did you know:
In the global top 15 GHD emitters, populations in the United States, Australia, Germany and Indonesia are the least alarmed about the #ClimateCrisis
The two countries with the most dismissives:
United States (12%)
Australia (11%)
Data: https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/six-audiences-around-the-world/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/857/741/484/858/230/original/e4276e4ac2bb6dda.png

2024-07-25 20:27:26

2023: “Alberta premier [Danielle Smith] downplays link between wildfires and climate change, commits to arson investigations”
Scientists: "It is just not a random thing. Climate change is playing a major role to make [the fires] happen,"
2024: Jasper destroyed (video) https://www.instagram.com/reel/C92bxcHp3Tu/
Quote source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-premier-danielle-smith-wildfires-climate-change-1.6870875
#ClimateCrisis #Jasper #Wildfires

2024-07-22 12:30:40

These instrument readings are 100% clear.
Unless we make, to use the IPCC language, "rapid, deep and in most cases immediate greenhouse gas emission reductions" then I am afraid to say we are firmly on a highway to hell.
#ClimateCrisis
https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/112829918388245812

2024-07-20 09:37:25

Are we going to break the 2023 record in the next couple of days?
What do you think?
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/818/139/881/624/083/original/dcf2f3db04587a3d.png

2024-07-19 06:21:21

The words “collapse of the land carbon sink in 2023” should terrify the crap out of us!
“In the coming years if this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models projections.”— Philippe Ciais
Research here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/811/707/399/422/817/original/cc24c8941d816ac0.jpeg

2024-07-16 16:57:06

"The Chinese term for the month-long peak flood season is qi xia ba shang, meaning late July and early August."
The big difference of late is the sheer volume of water falling from the sky.
Worldwide, one of the three population groups most at serious risk as we continue to heat are those living near seasonal rivers and ice.
#ClimateCrisis #FlashFloods #China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3270663/china-places-15-provinces-emergency-alert-deadly-floods-make-their-way-north

2024-07-11 13:03:06

When things fall apart as we cruise through the 1.5ºC and then 2ºC thresholds, let us never forget why.
We continue to burn fossil fuels, paying absolutely no attention to the science and the highway to hell this is putting us on.
#ClimateCrisis #Coal
Data: https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2024/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/767/988/217/837/200/original/29fe2eb1aa2a05e1.png

2024-07-11 07:51:56

“The 2023-24 El Nino has ended, but the global mean temperature stayed high for some other reasons. It has been the record high for 13 consecutive months. June 2024 was 1.21C warmer than 1951-80 mean and 1.50C higher than 1880-1920 mean. Data sources: NASA GISS & NOAA CPC.”—Makiko Sato
Source: https://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/766/766/165/238/619/original/5e7374f403866be4.png

2024-07-10 06:14:07

- reply

On a broader scale, these are the areas millions of people will be moving from as we continue to heat.
Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/760/718/252/864/666/original/bee83b46ba6b8194.jpeg

2024-07-10 06:01:56

It is extremely important to understand that adaptation has hard limits and when those are reached migration will begin in real earnest.
Do you understand what the hard limits are for the area you are in?
Current instrument readings:
+1.3°C latest 5-year average
+1.64°C current 12-month running mean
Permanent +1.5°C imminent
#ClimateCrisis
https://www.dw.com/en/india-extreme-weather-fuels-migration-related-challenges/a-69609397

2024-07-08 11:36:31

"Let's plant 1 trillion trees!" they said.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/aussies-shocked-as-great-browning-horror-spreads-through-hills-across-three-states-071733193.html
#ClimateCrisis

2024-07-02 04:59:21

Headline: “Mexico City residents, faced with water crisis, resort to drastic measures.” (https://abcnews.visitlink.me/eUgMGm)
We have know this will happen, for decades. What was done to prepare? Were limits to adaptation understood?
Most places are utterly unprepared for what is to come.
#ClimateCrisis
#MexicoCity
#DayZero
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/715/121/247/086/536/original/108e7c59d0e89161.jpeg

2024-07-01 08:06:49

#ClimateLiteracy helps you understand the risk from what many consider to be "small."
Take a listen to Tom Mortlock from UNSW Climate Change Research Centre explain what even a "small" rise in sea level means for coastal communities.
#SeaLevelRise #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/710/201/111/506/704/original/c9df6d4a5fbf46ec.mp4

2024-06-28 16:46:42

Do NOT look away - we are on a highway to hell.
#Heatwave
#ClimateCrisis
#Pakistan
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/pakistan-karachi-heatwave-temperature-death-toll-b2569734.html

2024-06-25 13:24:18

This is now a recurring theme: "The situation is worse than we thought!"
Case in point:
"Our results point towards a stronger sensitivity of ice-sheet melting, and thus higher sea-level-rise contribution in a warming climate, than has been previously understood."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01465-7
#SeaLevelRise #ClimateCrisis

2024-06-23 16:59:53

As #heatwaves become more common and more intense, don’t forget about the creatures we share this planet with.
How are they coping?
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/666/997/362/782/945/original/1564dce8a0792f9e.jpeg

2024-06-22 07:32:13

This we can say with considerable certainty: We are completely unprepared to deal with a world at +1.5°C (imminent) given that this is the experience at +1.3°C
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn140qp4do
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves

2024-06-20 07:38:47

Absolutely *no one* can say we have not been warned.
Reports of impacts from all the regions highlighted here are now a plenty.
We are at +1.3°C of heating (latest 5-year avg.)
We are to pass +1.5°C permanently shortly.
We are in a full blown #ClimateEmergency.
Data: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/647/800/229/695/456/original/35a31e2fb52fa891.jpeg

2024-06-20 05:42:54

What a year 2023 was!
The Energy Institute 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy https://www.energyinst.org/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/1542714/EI_Stats_Review_2024.pdf
Current instrument readings :
+1.3°C (latest 5-year average)
+1.63°C (12-month running mean)
419.3 ppm CO2 concentrations (2023)
1902 ppb CH4 concentrations (2023)
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/647/347/356/245/810/original/0bfaae1277fc5725.jpeg

2024-06-16 09:44:06

June 16 reality check:
Robin D. Lamboll et al: The RCB for 50% chance at 1.5ºC as of Jan 2023 was 250 GtCO2 (for a 66% chance 60 GtCO2) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01848-5
2023 emissions 35.8 GtCO2
"Focusing on the 66% scenario at the current pace, the entire 1.5 °C target could be depleted 𝙝𝙖𝙡𝙛𝙬𝙖𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 2024 [ie round about now.]"—Zhu Liu et al https://zhudeng.top/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/s43017-024
#ClimateCrisis #RemainingCarbonBudget

2024-06-15 19:49:04

⚠️ Early warning for Europe
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/first-significant-heatwave-summer-2024-forecast-europe-mk/
#Heatwave #ClimateLiteracy

2024-06-13 10:06:05

- reply

3) "What is it that takes Earth back to 1.5°C after overshoot? What the climate models show is that once GHG emissions are turned off, temperatures will gradually decline, as CO2 is absorbed in the biosphere on land and in the ocean. Is this likely to happen? The simply answer is, we do not know"
end/

2024-06-13 10:05:47

- reply

2) "We will be exceeding the likely threshold when tipping elements like all coral reef systems, the great Ice sheets (GIS/WAIS) and permafrost thawing, shift state from "good" to "bad". Will these tipping elements cope with a period of overshoot? We do not know. It will be a very risky period."

2024-06-13 10:05:22

- reply

1) "We know with 100 % certainty that this means rising frequency and strength of extreme events. So, the message to the world is this "buckle up" because we are inevitably facing 30-40yrs of rising climate damages to societies across the world. It will even at best - get worse before it gets better."

2024-06-13 10:04:59

"The best we can accomplish, is 1.5°C with overshoot. The reason for this is that we have already loaded so much energy/heat into the Earth system, that even if we stopped all emissions today, we are already committed to warming exceeding 1.5°C"—Prof Johan Rockström
What doe this imply?
A 🧵
#ClimateCrisis #Overshoot
https://bsky.app/profile/pik-potsdam.bsky.social/post/3kusbukrnss2c

2024-06-10 07:27:57

NEW in the Copernicus global temperature trend monitor
January 2024 projection to cross 1.5°C threshold was November 2033
June 2024: projection to cross 1.5°C threshold now May 2033
Notice lower end of uncertainty bar starts in 2030. Given our current 0.36°C/decade heating rate, 2030 it is.
Data: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/software/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor?tab=app
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/591/138/489/053/560/original/2eb09b82281d5bdf.jpeg

2024-06-09 15:15:07

If aviation were a country, it would be the world’s sixth-biggest emitter, falling after China, the US, India, Russia, and Japan.
Reminder: The emissions from these 23,000 flights will last in the atmosphere for 300-1,000 years.
#ClimateLiteracy #Aviation
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/587/312/092/395/477/original/078a5d1eedafbc65.jpeg

2024-06-06 06:16:22

This tells you *everything* you need to know about how serious the fossil fuel industry is about the clean energy transition.
“The Godfathers of climate chaos – the fossil fuel industry – rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies.”—Antonio Guterres
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/568/206/568/645/862/original/13d71d65e108c97d.jpeg

2024-06-05 18:00:41

This is *absolutely* the right call:
“I urge every country to ban advertising from fossil fuel companies.
“And I urge news media and tech companies to stop taking fossil fuel advertising.” — Antonio Guterres
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateAction
Full remarks here: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2024-06-05/secretary-generals-special-address-climate-action-moment-of-truth%C2%A0
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/565/315/863/358/601/original/c96b78ab26c1f062.mp4

2024-05-31 04:46:39

Here I am sounding like a broken record again.
There is no evidence of an emergency “Covid-like” response to emission reductions.
As a result, we need to prepare physically, mentally and emotionally for a world at 2° within the next 20 years.
#ClimateCrisis
https://rhg.com/research/global-fossil-fuel-demand/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/533/880/846/555/085/original/5836a49d6177274a.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/533/880/913/386/494/original/213a962047b9dad3.jpeg

2024-05-28 16:13:17

Tomorrow South Africa’s 27 million registered voters head to the polls.
How we vote will determine the countries direction on climate.
#SAElection24 #ClimateCrisis #SouthAfrica
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/519/586/470/856/302/original/94993317b21c9247.png
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2024-05-27 15:26:15

Reminder: People who need to *urgently* begin adaptation conversations are those who:
1. Live in places that are already close to thermal limits
2. Live near seasonal rivers and ice
3. Live along coastlines.
These places are the frontlines of the expanding #ClimateCrisis
#ClimateLiteracy

2024-05-27 14:14:04

Basically anywhere south of San Antonio, Texas is facing extreme heat today, matching what is happening in Mexico
#ClimateCrisis #Texas #Heatwave
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/513/464/258/699/806/original/ca0b032adf7aebc2.jpg

2024-05-26 07:34:32

2024 is not just an election year. It is THE election year.
64 countries—representing a combined global population of about 49%—are holding national elections, the results of which will prove massively consequential as we head deeper into the #ClimateCrisis
#Vote to keep fossil fuels in the ground!
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/506/229/952/263/578/original/81cb5847186afa3d.jpeg

2024-05-23 19:47:01

I don’t think any of us really understand how quickly collapse can happen:
> About 85% of the country expected to see highs of at least 40°C
> Almost 40% of the country’s dams below 20%
> 40% are between 20 and 50%.
> Mexico City (Population 22.51 million) forced to reduce water supply as reservoirs that feed city dry up.
> Stores running out of mineral water.
https://apnews.com/article/mexico-heatwave-drought-protests-monkey-deaths-6310778f139ef786a8c70301fb340bd5
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Mexico

2024-05-23 10:47:38

India's deal with the devil.
Heatwave drives Delhi’s power demand to historic 8000 MW peak https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/heatwave-drives-delhis-power-demand-to-historic-8000-mw-peak/110347501
Where does most of the electricity come from in an attempt to stay cool?
285 coal power plants.
Resulting CO2 emissions👇🏻
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/489/999/763/996/286/original/cbac6dcbea637296.png

2024-05-21 11:23:41

This is our doing because we refuse to stop burning fossil fuels.
Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by +0.5% in 2024.
+1.63ºC 12-month running mean above preindustrial in Berkely Earth and ERA5 datasets.
1.5ºC imminent.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-howler-monkeys-dropping-dead-heat-toll-mounts-2024-05-20/
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Mexico

2024-05-11 13:44:32

"Key numbers on Porto Alegre & surrounding state per Folha de S.Paulo
- 95 dead
- 131 missing
- 50k homeless
- 160k evacuees
- 17 hospitals closed
- Airport closed indefinitely
- 450k homes without power
- 85% of city's 1.3 mln residents without working water supply"—Brain Winter

2024-05-11 13:43:55

"I don't say this lightly - but the floods in
#PortoAlegre, #Brazil, are looking comparable to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005 -- massive evacuations, water & power outages, key infrastructure damaged, parts of city, possible long-term consequences."—Brian Winter
Background heating +1.3ºC
#ClimateCrisis
1/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/422/747/718/545/193/original/166227848c8a1c0a.png

2024-05-09 11:04:55

When are we projected to cross +1.5ºC permanently?
In March 2023 the date was 12 years in the future
In March 2024 the date is now 9 years away
What a difference a year makes.
Data: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/apps/c3s/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/410/798/330/805/941/original/0bf5541936bcbfe7.jpg

2024-05-06 08:28:40

We absolutely cannot ignore what is happening in #Canoas #Brazil.
The stories and images are heartbreaking.
https://youtu.be/URmRPBo48ao
This is all taking place with background heating of +1.3ºC (latest 5-year average) above preindustrial.
Our cities, our infrastructure cannot cope at this level of heating.
What happens when we reach 1.5º or 2ºC?
#ClimateCrisis

2024-05-05 05:34:22

We are ready to move into Zone 1 on this map.
Between 1.7-2.3°C some places will be contending with 200+ days where the combined temperature and humidity conditions will pose a risk of mortality to many individuals.
Urgent conversations need to get underway of how to keep people safe.
Data: Pg. 16, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/386/848/215/817/820/original/3399155f99453c6d.jpeg

2024-04-29 14:29:20

Situation in #India:
"According to IMD, many parts of the east coast and the peninsular south will record heat index of 40-50 degrees C, with some places even going up to 60°C, as per heat index forecasts provided by IMD."
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/heatwave-grips-country-as-polls-enter-key-stage-101714329327537.html
#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis

2024-04-23 11:39:48

⚠️ Tropics Summer 2024 Early Warning
- Southeast Asia 70% chance of suffering record heat and humidity
- Northern India 50% chance of suffering record heat and humidity
- Sahel 35% chance of suffering record heat and humidity
https://phys.org/news/2024-04-humidity-tropics-summer.html
#Heatwaves #ClimateLiteracy

2024-04-18 15:46:13

Two very important studies today from @npub1jru…ala2 and teams at World Weather Attribution
1. El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/el-nino-key-driver-of-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-southern-african-countries/
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Drought #Africa

2024-04-13 13:31:28

More on the tragedy unfolding in #Malawi as we continue to heat.
Source https://www.thecontinent.org/_files/ugd/287178_ee5af0cfc6bc460096212949a65adf23.pdf?index=true
#ElNino #ClimateCrisis
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2024-04-11 06:11:22

The heartbreaking situation on the #GreatBarrierReef is a sad lesson in adaptation.
EVERY living thing, including humans, has limits to adaptation and when those limits are breached death follows. As we continue to heat more and more of life on earth is going to be reaching its limits.
https://theconversation.com/the-great-barrier-reefs-latest-bout-of-bleaching-is-the-fifth-in-eight-summers-the-corals-now-have-almost-no-reprieve-225348
We are in a #ClimateEmergency

2024-04-09 12:41:54

The atmosphere, which sustains life on earth, doesn't care about:
1. The economy
2. Political parties
3. Where anyone lives or
4. How much money they have
It only cares about one thing: How to stabilise itself after billions of tons of GHG's have been poured into it. It only cares about this.
The faster we learn to look at everything through it's "eyes", understanding what it *must do* to restore it's balance, the faster we will act to save ourselves.
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

2024-04-07 04:30:32

#France has never seen temperatures this high this early in April. Yesterday (6th) being the hottest day ever recorded before April 15.
Similar conditions in July/Aug will be catastrophic.
Source: https://www.infoclimat.fr
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/228/052/755/709/040/original/9de50d079e9d660b.jpeg

2024-04-05 08:19:08

2007: “We basically have three choices: mitigation, adaptation and suffering. We’re going to do some of each. The question is what the mix is going to be. The more mitigation we do, the less adaptation will be required and the less suffering there will be”—Dr. John Holdren
2024: It's clear we chose suffering!
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/30climate.html
#ClimateCrisis

2024-03-31 05:23:34

As we await the the data for the final few days of March 2024, this is how 2024 is doing in comparison to 2023, the hottest year on record.
#ClimateCrisis #ElNino #GlobalHeating #ClimateLiteracy
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/188/624/308/137/518/original/33cdbe0abc9c8dde.jpeg

2024-03-25 13:13:26

Reminder:
"The global-average temperature for the past twelve months (March 2023 – February 2024) is the highest on record, at 1.56°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average."—Copernicus Climate Change Service.
What will April 2023 – March 2024 be?
#ClimateCrisis

2024-03-18 17:56:41

Nothing in this Al Jazeera reporting on the heatwave crushing Rio about what is *causing* this, namely the unabated burning of fossil fuels. 🤷🏻
From: @npub1ca8…sz63
https://mastodon.social/@LostExplorer/112117913493493368

2024-03-17 13:53:09

South Sudan closes all schools as it faces a +40°C heatwave (See story here https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-schools-closed-heat-wave-b52d535e3ee7284b2832c0cfd14b1167)
Shortly, once we pass +1.5°C permanently, South Sudan will experience 137 days above 38°C in an average year, 216 days during an El Niño year. (Projections here: https://probablefutures.org/maps/)
These communities are on the frontlines of the #ClimateEmergency
#Heatwave #SouthSudan #ClimateLiteracy
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/111/348/049/431/389/original/210bca152baf627b.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/111/352/706/316/052/original/24996fd9b447f6bb.jpeg

2024-03-16 05:54:07

Get ready for a +1.5°C world:
“Analysis of over 1,200 climate scenarios was carried out by the Potsdam Institute to assess the feasibility of scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100, allowing for some overshoot”
They found that “low or no overshoot scenarios typically relied on assumptions unsupported by current data, such as the ability to draw down over “7 billion tons [CO2] per year from the atmosphere by 2050”, compared with a current global capacity of 43 million tons.”
1/

2024-03-15 09:14:20

As you can see we have never been here before in March.
Here we are comparing the two hottest years ever recorded 2016 & 2023 with 2024.
The northern hemisphere is nowhere near its summer yet.
Prepare for climate shocks in 2024.
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/098/937/271/249/444/original/c6d56c88577f56f9.png

2024-03-13 06:06:27

Ecosystem collapse happening before our eyes:
"Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) are now at record levels on many reefs. The threshold for mortality of staghorn & table corals is 6-8 DHW units. 14.57 is off the charts."—Prof Terry Hughes, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
We are about to cross the low-latitude coral reefs tipping point.
Instrument readings:
🌡️ Surface Temperature +1.56ºC (current 12-month mean)
🌊 Sea Surface Temperature 21.06°C (Feb 2024 average)
#ClimateCrisis #GBR
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/086/861/243/956/385/original/44ba741dbb269a9d.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/086/863/532/961/578/original/fbcdd94fa435276e.png

2024-03-09 05:22:18

In South Africa we have had 7 heatwave events during our summer, with the longest being recorded in February (9 days)
🥵 February also saw global temperatures exceed 2°C above preindustrial for four consecutive days, Feb 8-11, for the first time in recorded history.
We are now in early autumn here and some parts are under a heatwave advisory again. We have also seen March records tumble.
#ClimateCrisis #SouthAfrica #Heatwaves
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/064/044/435/581/715/original/ba66ba8932482f7d.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/064/045/518/309/896/original/11d6ce82f0c955dd.jpeg

2024-03-06 23:08:01

"It's looking like the entirety of the Southern Hemisphere is probably going to bleach this year. We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet.”—Derek Manzello, Coordinator NOAA Coral Reef Watch
#ClimateCrisis
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/world-brink-fourth-mass-coral-reef-bleaching-event-noaa-says-2024-03-05/

2024-03-05 13:07:35

WMO:
"The 2023-24 El Niño has peaked as one of the five strongest on record. It is now gradually weakening but it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months, fuelling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities. Above normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May."
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-weakens-impacts-continue
#ElNino #ClimateCrisis

2024-03-05 08:46:41

The past 12 months the average global heating has reached +1.56ºC (See https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3kmqa4zvcij2a) The impacts of this to be felt as we go into the northern hemisphere summer.
There are two urgent questions that need immediate answers:
1. How do we prevent global temperatures from breaching +2ºC
2. What adaptation strategies need to be in place as we approach +1.5ºC
We are stepping into a brand new world. How ready are you?
3/3

2024-03-05 07:20:14

Now that it is abundantly clear that we are committed to 1.5ºC, it is urgent that we find answers to how we survive this.
For anyone concerned about this future I would *highly* recommend reading the IPCC's WGII report entitled "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" - at least the Summary.
Here is the link: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
1/2
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation #ClimateLiteracy
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2024-03-03 17:40:10

Wow Europe 😳
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/032/967/736/738/559/original/4933c46af9e39e5d.jpeg

2024-03-02 20:31:46

February becomes the hottest month ever recorded in the ERA5 dataset 🥵
+1.79°C above preindustrial
https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3kmqa457wz42q
#ClimateCrisis

2024-03-02 07:28:00

Insurance Industry — the canary in the coal mine (excuse the pun)
"Map Shows 9 States Where Homeowners Are Losing Their Insurance" https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-9-states-where-homeowners-are-losing-their-insurance-1875252
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/024/908/318/224/929/original/8d2e65f84a424210.png

2024-03-01 11:01:13

"Total energy-related CO2 emissions 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 by 1.1% in 2023. Far from falling rapidly CO2 emissions reached a 𝙣𝙚𝙬 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝 of 37.4 Gt in 2023."—IEA, CO2 Emissions in 2023 https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/33e2badc-b839-4c18-84ce-f6387b3c008f/CO2Emissionsin2023.pdf
> For a 1.5ºC pathway emissions must fall by 8.7% in 2024
> For a 2ºC pathway emissions must fall by 5.3% in 2024
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/020/084/108/542/680/original/8cf37b43a60dde89.png

2024-02-29 11:09:48

Save this image on your phone.
The first 2 months of 2024 are gone. If we don't achieve the 2024 target in the next 10 months then the 2025 targets get steeper still.
Look around you? Do you see any attempt to reproduce covid-like emission reductions? Or is it pretty much business-as-usual?
We are in deep DEEP trouble.
https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/014/454/078/633/439/original/728bade7bb483538.jpeg

2024-02-25 07:23:18

We seriously cannot continue doing this.
Cars and vans accounted for 48% of global transport carbon emissions in 2022. This made this sub-sector the most emissions-laden mode of transport worldwide. (See https://www.statista.com/chart/30890/estimated-share-of-co2-emissions-in-the-transportation-sectorhttps://www.statista.com/chart/30890/estimated-share-of-co2-emissions-in-the-transportation-sector/)
One third of the global workforce can do their work from home. If this group WFH for 3 days per week 500,000 barrels of oil would not be burnt EVERY DAY. (See https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-cut-oil-use )
1/2
#ClimateLiteracy #Traffic #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/990/904/230/682/456/original/bb4343631af1d710.png

2024-02-24 04:47:42

To say I am terrified by what is to come is an understatement.
Take the situation in South Africa where the current unemployment rate is just over 36%
What happens to this place in the next six years when GDP drops by 4-5% as a result of climate impacts?
This will trigger societal collapse surely?
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/socioeconomic-impact-climate-change-developing-countries-next-decades.pdf
#ClimateCrisis #Collapse #SouthAfrica
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/984/638/497/716/396/original/49d10a67d242d70a.jpeg

2024-02-11 09:27:54

There are those who optimistically think we will just adapt to climate chaos.
ALL adaptation has limits and those limits are determined by the speed of change
Here is Prof Dean Abrahamson in 1985 (yes that is 39 years ago) calling adaptation to what we face a "panglossian notion."
Take a listen: https://youtu.be/1NOdTEIihFU?feature=shared&t=5714
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Adaptation

2024-02-08 20:01:50

As more people become exposed to heat, it is *critical* that we understand the impact on the human body.
‼️ We have been underestimating the risk of #heatwaves
“Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35°C Tw* model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1°C (young) and ~21.9–33.7°C (old)—0.9–13.1°C lower than Tw = 35 °C”
*Tw = wet-bulb temperature
Study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5.pdf
#ClimateLiteracy #Heatwaves
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2024-02-05 06:44:25

Don't look away
These events at +1.29º of long-term heating are going to be nothing compared to the extreme events we are going to have to deal with at +1.5ºC then +1.8ºC and then +2ºC
Every 0.1ºC of heating will bring increased levels of misery. Our societies, our infrastructure is not built for this
We HAVE TO pull the emergency break on emissions and we have to do it NOW, next month, next year is too late
We are racing towards catastrophe
https://youtu.be/Zylw1oXvy4U
#ClimateCrisis #Chile

2024-02-04 08:18:18

Devastating scenes coming out of Chile.
This all happening agains a backdrop of a peaking El Nino and a planet that has warmed by +1.29ºC above preindustrial averages.
What happens to these areas when we cross +1.5ºC permanently in the next few years?
We are in a #ClimateEmergency
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68196048
#ClimateCrisis #Chile #Heatwave #WildFires

2024-02-02 04:22:37

We *really* need to understand the cascading effects brought on by extreme weather events.
Some of these last long after the initial event and as a result can easily overlap with the next extreme event compounding the challenges.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/visualizing-climate-disasters-surprising-cascading-effects/
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
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2024-01-30 08:39:37

Since there is no indication we will keep heating below +2ºC at our current commitment levels, this comment by Luke Kemp et al in Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios, seems more relevant than ever:
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #ClimateRisk
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/843/992/990/452/012/original/27b4cdb5f38d61b9.jpg

2024-01-29 17:51:05

- reply

How do we know the “current” is too strong to avoid going over the 1.5°C edge?
Here is how we know:
To achieve a below 1.5°C pathway we would need to reduce emissions by 8.7% starting THIS year, then again in 2025, 26, 27 every year until 2030.
This is *not* going to happen!
Just like on the Zambezi we have passed the point of no return. We must now prepare to go over.

2024-01-29 17:38:26

What you are looking at is “the point of no return” on the mighty Zambezi river before it plunges off the Victoria Falls.
The current at this point is between 5 and 8 km/h and if you were drifting in a boat you would silently pass this point unaware that just 16 mins later you would be at the waterfall edge.
This is a great analogy to understand that we have passed the point of no return for remaining under 1.5°C the “current” is too strong to avoid this.
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/840/428/996/918/740/original/5196d0530a1495f1.jpeg

2024-01-28 05:47:42

Most humans live in areas where the mean average temperature (MAT) is between 13°C and 27°C - “the human climate niche.”
Coninuted heating is going to expose at least billion people to unprecedented heat (MAT ≥29°C)
Impact:
“High temperatures have been linked to increased mortality, decreased productivity, decreased cognitive performance, impaired learning, adverse pregnancy outcomes, decreased crop yields, increased conflict, hate speech, migration and infectious diseases.”
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/831/992/921/126/918/original/ae61937dc14ec504.jpeg

2024-01-22 05:48:07

Scientists: We need to reduce emissions by 5.3% in 2024 to keep in line with a below 2°C pathway!
🌐 response:🖕
> Oil demand growth is projected to ease from 2.3 mb/d in 2023 to 1.2 mb/d in 2024
> Oil supply to rise by 1.5 mb/d to a new high of 103.5 mb/d, fuelled by record-setting output from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada.
So we will miss the 2024 target as we have missed all the other targets before it.
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2024
#ClimateCrisis

2024-01-19 04:10:05

Did you know this about #WorkingFromHome?
Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-cut-oil-use
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/780/650/059/312/177/original/6eb41ff7882e403f.jpeg

2024-01-10 23:15:06

2023: US weather/climate disasters exceeding $1 Billion in losses:
1 drought event
4 flooding events
19 severe storm events
2 tropical cyclone events
1 wildfire event
1 winter storm event
Total 28
2022: 18
2021: 20
2020: 22
2017: 19
Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/
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2024-01-08 06:41:02

- reply

@npub10af…lkvw here you go https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

2024-01-08 05:42:50

- reply

Btw in case you were wondering how this data is created, here are some of the instruments used to collect this data in almost real-time. There are about 3,800 of these Argo floats in the ocean right now.
See more here: https://argo.ucsd.edu/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/718/727/438/829/107/original/438f0de115a92e42.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/718/727/561/770/847/original/688d9b912127366b.jpeg

2024-01-08 04:51:06

Pay attention to the instrument data this tells us *exactly* what’s coming.
2024 starts with sea surface temperatures *above* the records of 2023 (orange line)
We are in a full blown #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/718/516/025/163/380/original/d6cc634b14f4c5d4.jpeg

2024-01-06 04:18:28

Set a reminder for this very important press briefing from Copernicus ECMWF next week.
The Global Climate Highlights 2023 report will be published on Tuesday 9 January at 13:00 CET.
🔴Watch the online press conference here 👉 https://www.youtube.com/live/FNQdnsMIDbI
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

2024-01-04 07:56:30

Reminder: THIS YEAR, not next year or 2026 or 2030, THIS YEAR:
> Emissions need to fall by 5.3% for a below 2ºC pathway in 2030
> Emissions need to fall by 8.7% for a below 1.5ºC pathway in 2030
*Covid: 2020 saw a -4.7% reduction over 2019
Data: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023
Recent global CO2 trend👇🏻
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/696/599/635/438/005/original/40d526b96a050616.png

2024-01-03 11:04:55

JRA-55 dataset data released. In this dataset 2023 ended at +1.43ºC
More on this here: https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3khzop4c5v42o
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #JRA55

2023-12-31 16:20:00

So this just happened in Australia - also the highest temperature recorded in the southern hemisphere in 2023
#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis #Australia
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/111/675/934/363/761/724/original/1a73672f5577553b.mp4

2023-12-29 07:12:20

"Heightened ocean wave activity resulting from global warming associated climate change will greatly affect coastal communities, biosystems, and infrastructure. As sea level rise progresses, the impacts of wave activity will be aggravated, resulting in increased coastal erosion and flooding of low lying regions."
(Source https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JC019722)
https://www.tiktok.com/@abc7newsbayarea/video/7317847645291253038
#ClimateLiteracy #SeaLevelRise #ClimateCrisis

2023-12-26 10:46:05

"Prior to the start of 2023, the likelihood of a 1.5°C annual average this year was estimated at ~1%. The fact that this forecast has shifted so greatly [now a 99% chance] serves to underscore the extraordinarily progression of 2023, whose warmth has far exceeded expectations."—Robert Rohde, Berkley Earth
https://berkeleyearth.org/november-2023-temperature-update/
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

2023-12-24 14:14:18

Shell can’t take the heat on LinkedIn so they have turned comments off on these greenwashing posts
#ClimateAction #Shell
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