Dr. Jeff
Dr. Jeff Ross

Random pleb, physician, and fund manager.

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

NIP-05 Address

drjeff@nostrplebs.com

NIP-57 Address

jeffross@strike.me

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpzemhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejz73z3dw8

Publishing to

eden.nostr.land

Author Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

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Last Notes

2024-09-13 22:29:23

My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:
"Buying eggs with bitcoins."
Since they started keeping track in January 2015 through August 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:
- In US dollars: Up +51.7%, from $2.11 to $3.20.
https://m.primal.net/KpFe.png
- In #bitcoin: Down -99.4%, from 925,406 sats to 5,348 sats.
https://m.primal.net/KpFd.png
CONCLUSION: Life gets ever more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.
Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...
The choice is yours.
Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/

2024-09-11 13:44:44

“Everyone is wrong! I am right!”
“Sign up for my subscription service to find out why.”
- everyone, everywhere
Make it stop. 🤦🏻‍♂️

2024-09-11 13:23:27

So… who “won”? #note1ywx…7kne

2024-09-10 17:29:34

PREDICTIONS for tonight's presidential debate:
- #Democrats will think (strongly) that #Harris won
- #Republicans will think (strongly) that #Trump won
- #Independents will wonder (and complain about) why we have two such terrible options to choose from
- #Bitcoiners will ignore the noise, stack sats, and chill

2024-09-07 12:13:48

Stressed out?
Here’s what Jesus says to you:
“Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
- Matthew 11:28-30 (ESV)

2024-09-06 19:47:58

For your contemplation... 👀
Green vertical lines marking September 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 (current) on the monthly #bitcoin chart.
This is the point of the cycle where the bears are seemingly victorious and increasingly insufferable.
This is your last chance to bail before upside volatility (likely) begins to take hold in earnest.
It is your last chance to fill the next four years of your financial life with serious regret.
IF YOU DON'T SELL YOUR BITCOIN IN SEPTEMBER 2024, YOU MAY BE FORCED TO RIDE THE ROCKET HIGHER OVER THE COMING 12-15 MONTHS. 🚀
You have been warned.
https://m.primal.net/KhIC.png

2024-09-05 19:27:30

Random movie recommendation: Elvis (2022)
I have always liked his music, but this movie gave me a 10x appreciation for him and his work as a musician.
https://m.primal.net/KfqQ.png

2024-09-05 17:58:54

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The equivalent ease of visibility, ease of access, and ease of use of Nests (or similar) as X Spaces or Clubhouse.
Regular conversations with fellow Nostriches would be invaluable (to me, at least).

2024-09-05 12:10:55

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Joe will come when he’s ready.

2024-09-05 11:37:51

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Yes.

2024-09-05 00:10:50

Satoshi knew all along… #note1myw…zchr

2024-09-04 19:03:45

Their fear of volatility is your ongoing arbitrage opportunity.
#bitcoin

2024-09-04 18:00:17

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I used a stapler this morning and it worked great.

2024-09-04 14:28:06

Monetary speculative arbitrage (especially between government fiat currency and #bitcoin) remains *The Trade* of the decade.

2024-09-04 12:36:45

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Most past examples saw rate cuts being triggered by a major recession.
The current macro conditions are a bit unusual (some weakness and some strength), but are similar in some ways to the mid-1990s, when the Fed also cut rates, but there wasn’t a major market crash. In fact, it helped kick off the late 1990s dot com bubble.

2024-09-04 12:29:10

Tragic boating accident.
Lost my bitties. https://image.nostr.build/1aadd20959ef9427d0222b3561f026d5b2df381ef588a9c5848440fa7b2ea1f6.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b363e415aa0ee0471f1009e0206a81e0beb15717bd0e91661d99d8584e6f220a.jpg

2024-09-04 12:09:10

I am of the opinion that macro data and events are coalescing almost perfectly for a beautiful mid-September pivot (back) to #QE.
A new liquidity wave is coming, which is good for risk assets, in general.
And #Bitcoin is the Great Absorber of Liquidity… so you do the math.
Cheers.

2024-09-03 20:31:44

Patience, young Padawans.
https://m.primal.net/KCRO.png

2024-09-03 19:28:47

WHICH DEVS ARE BUILDING THIS #note1zew…rpqs

2024-09-03 19:26:32

Sats are cool and all.
But it would be great if someone could zap me a sandwich.

2024-09-03 19:11:03

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You may have to restart the Damus app.

2024-09-03 18:59:23

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Accurate. 😂

2024-09-03 17:10:06

PSA: “I generally don’t respond to DMs.”
I’m not trying to be a jerk, I just have way too much on my plate to respond to so many personal requests. https://image.nostr.build/6e2f244175ddda34f75a528634cec1a5a3be1ebf84c957a72a9aef72bf64225a.jpg

2024-09-03 15:59:21

GOOD NEWS!!
I just received another email announcement...
For the third month this year (March, May, and July 2024), my small friends and family hedge fund "has been featured in BarclayHedge's Monthly performance rankings. Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked number 1 in the Multi-Strategy category."
#1 for multi-strategy hedge funds... in the world! (According to BarclayHedge data.)
I can take very little credit for this astonishing accomplishment, of course, as my fund is powered primarily by #bitcoin and bitcoin proxies.
Eventually, Wall Street (like Vailshire) will embrace a Bitcoin standard... willingly or unwillingly.
https://m.primal.net/KcUI.png

2024-09-03 15:45:38

Being an adult means taking responsibility.
Unfortunately, there are very few adults in the United States today.

2024-09-03 15:05:42

What I'm watching... 👀
#Nasdaq stocks ( $QQQ ) in the US have absolutely crushed it relative to most other equities over the past five years, rising a whopping +158% in US dollar terms!
However, they have actually decreased -55% in real (neutral energy money) terms over that same time period.
Understand that how you measure your life is extremely important and relevant for a better future.
False weights, measures, and money--like government fiat currencies--give you a distorted and misleading picture.
#Bitcoin is better money for a better world.
https://m.primal.net/KcRY.png

2024-09-03 13:53:58

Freedom from peak authoritarian central control is the real worldwide movement.
#Bitcoin and #nostr are two tools to help decentralized sovereign individuals actually win the fight. Eventually.

2024-09-03 13:49:57

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Nice.
Any favorites?

2024-09-03 13:36:55

Who is on your short list of fantastic #nostr and #Bitcoin developers?
Please tag your favorite(s).
I’d like to know, follow, and support them. ⚡️

2024-09-02 16:25:54

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Damus on my phone.
Primal on my desktop.

2024-09-02 16:23:35

I cannot think of better tools with which to build a better world than #Bitcoin and #Nostr.
Freedom is finally starting to win.
Get to work. 💪

2024-09-02 13:53:01

I did a thing today.
#Nostr is now my only social media account.
Decentralize.
All in.
Onwards.
https://m.primal.net/KaZP.png
https://m.primal.net/KaZM.png

2024-09-01 19:33:05

It is time for citizens to ban governments that ban personal freedoms.

2024-08-29 12:52:17

Although September may have some weak data points, I have officially pivoted from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull.
Bullish macro and liquidity tailwinds are coming soon.
It won’t happen all at once… in fact, it will start slowly at first…
But it will happen.
I expect the next 14 months of #bitcoin price action to be generally lit.
#Halloween2025 is my next major target date.
(For infotainment purposes only.)

2024-08-29 12:48:36

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Yes.
Although we may have some weak macro data in September, I have officially pivoted bullish.

2024-08-27 20:36:59

True or false: #Bitcoin is productive capital.

2024-08-25 13:18:31

GM #nostr.
I’m unplugging for a bit.
Powell officially pivoted dovish on Friday.
Bullish. https://image.nostr.build/cc0b19f9739eb507f096a061e5b1a6a2e18d89dba7565d2aaf8ecc36b6a63077.jpg

2024-08-21 23:24:55

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That is only US (not global) M2. But yes, it is also bullish.

2024-08-21 23:22:04

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M2 global money supply has actually broken out of its 3+ year range and has finally shifted bullish.
US net liquidity still crabby.

2024-08-21 22:02:34

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Yes.

2024-08-21 21:57:44

Don't forget to let the world know that you don't understand inflation, basic economic principles, or how real businesses work by using the term "price gouging" in relation to grocery stores and political campaign policies.

2024-08-21 20:20:41

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I miss the 80s.

2024-08-21 20:17:52

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Exactly.
Kids these days don’t know how to simultaneously have fun and bleed. 😂

2024-08-21 20:05:24

Worth a watch.
I definitely vibe with the "Playgrounds Then" guy. 😂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P5GxUHJFLw

2024-08-21 16:04:00

Another example. -- I can't stop (won't stop).
Over the past ten years, the price of a dozen Grade A eggs in the United States have:
- increased by +56% in US dollars.
- decreased by -98% in #bitcoin.
CONCLUSION:
- The longer you save in US dollars, the more expensive life gets.
- The longer you save in #bitcoin, the more affordable life gets.
The choice is yours.
https://m.primal.net/KGoA.png

2024-08-21 15:15:53

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Thanks for your efforts in the Bitcoin space! 🍻

2024-08-21 14:18:41

ARE YOU EVEN IN RIGA, ANON?

2024-08-21 13:51:12

"Demand for bitcoin will meaningfully accelerate from here."
- Cantor Fitzgerald, on their new Overweight rating of MicroStrategy
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4142325-microstrategy-rated-new-overweight-at-cantor-on-bitcoin-demand

2024-08-21 12:10:50

I was finally able to watch this fantastic interview.
Strong recommend that you watch it as well. 🔥
Shout out to @npub1cj8…rz4u and @npub1s05…eyhe for the deep and multifaceted discussion!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o02OLYsnw0

2024-08-21 00:53:25

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Different than Lyn Alden?

2024-08-21 00:24:21

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🍻

2024-08-20 22:32:12

Admittedly, I don't miss it.
https://m.primal.net/KGCv.png

2024-08-20 22:18:28

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Love it. 🤝

2024-08-20 22:17:14

Bitcoin's number go down technology remains unparalleled (and previously nonexistent) in the history of humanity.
Two more cases in point:
A ten year chart of the S&P 500 ( $SPX ) and #Nasdaq ( $QQQ ) stocks, priced in bitcoin (bitcoin as the denominator).
LESSON: Life gets cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.
https://m.primal.net/KGCP.png

2024-08-20 21:39:38

Separate money from central control with #Bitcoin.
Separate speech from central control with #Nostr.

2024-08-20 21:27:31

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🤝

2024-08-20 20:51:35

Every day, your government is working hard to convince you that ongoing theft of your hard-earned purchasing power is not only normal, but is actually good for you and for the economy.
This is a lie, but very few understand it.

2024-08-20 20:06:14

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🍻

2024-08-20 20:05:58

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🍻

2024-08-20 20:03:16

Straight talk:
There’s simply too much beer hate out there right now.

2024-08-20 19:21:26

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This is a much wiser guess. 😂🤝

2024-08-20 19:18:36

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My 4Q 2025 price target remains unchanged and is approximately 8x higher than the current price.
This is obviously just my best guess.

2024-08-20 18:28:48

Just got triggered by another bitcoin analyst write-up.
So, for like the zillionth time...
The last six months of price consolidation "at or near the 2021 highs" is NOT ATYPICAL OR UNUSUAL if you understand that:
1. The 2021 bitcoin price high of approximately $69k was an (abnormally low) anomaly, historically-speaking... and *should have* been closer to $125k.
2. The anomaly was caused primarily by China's sudden and effective ban of Bitcoin mining, which caused the hash rate to drop precipitously by approximately 50% in the spring/summer months of 2021. By the time hash rate recovered, the liquidity and leverage wave of late 2021 had reached its peak, limiting further upside price action.
3. Once understood, the current post-halving rangebound consolidation of approximately 40-60% of $125k (range: $50k-75k) is TOTALLY NORMAL and quite similar to 2H 2016 and 2H 2020 price action.
Hopefully this makes sense and is helpful to those who are despairing and/or are new to bitcoin.
Cheers. 🍻

2024-08-20 17:03:12

“Nothing is certain except death and taxes and $58K Bitcoin.“
- Benjamin Franklin, paraphrased

2024-08-20 16:35:53

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Same. 🤝

2024-08-20 16:19:43

So... my first Nest trial was unsuccessful.
I couldn't see anyone but "Guests" in the audience.
I couldn't figure out how to invite anyone up on stage with me.
I assume my mic was working, but it's kind of clunky and hard to reach behind the nest URL at the bottom of the screen.
I may have to wait until someone with experience runs a Nest and hopefully I can join them on stage for a bit to play around with the features and figure out what's going on.
As of today, I miss the UI/UX of Spaces, but am confident that the features will improve on #nostr going forward.
#note1zhp…w8vf

2024-08-20 16:12:22

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We'll see how it works. I want to monkey around with it and see how the controls work...

2024-08-20 16:10:09

"Doom and Gloom (nest test room)" nest is live! Come join 🤗 https://nostrnests.com/naddr1qqjxyd3nxfnxvdee943xyepk956rwde595urjdm995urvcmrxd3kgepevyerxqg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09upzpduedsvruqmd7fuq99zmszaaezct7kt3ke3p4p4lx45uxvs30uraqvzqqqrkvurzf5n6

2024-08-20 13:39:36

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That's great!

2024-08-20 13:23:57

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It depends on to which asset class you are referring.
For US based risk assets: Yes.
For global assets: No.

2024-08-20 12:38:58

An update on *liquidity* flows...
OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021!
OPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀
OBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).
OPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.
Hope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends.
https://m.primal.net/KFij.png

2024-08-20 12:23:35

Love this iconic #bitcoin chart.
Thanks for posting the updated version here on #nostr, Root! ⚡
#note1y6m…cfen

2024-08-20 02:31:02

Posted over a year ago (3-Aug-2023)…
Did Cody make a good choice? #note1845…5804

2024-08-19 20:33:31

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Yes, they are intertwined.

2024-08-19 20:30:02

Has anything been more destructive to the planet and to humanity than a full embrace of Keynesian economics by the world’s nation state governments over the past 80+ years?

2024-08-19 20:24:47

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Interesting take.
Thanks for sharing.

2024-08-19 20:11:30

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I think bitcoin will eventually create a less speculative and less leveraged society. Less, but higher quality businesses. Less trading. More shrewd and real investments, rather than the current fiat-driven market dynamics.

2024-08-19 20:03:44

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Yup.
I do this already.

2024-08-19 20:01:25

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I think it’s actually an incredibly complex issue and I am in no way an expert. However, I imagine it will be possible to do as a layer three or layer four solution a decade or two down the road.
It’s much too early to implement in the coming few years, in my opinion.

2024-08-19 19:58:35

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I’ve heard the same things, and wouldn’t be surprised if it started out on ethereum or solana.
But I also think that it will eventually happen on Bitcoin… and will be laughably clunky and difficult to use initially, but then will become the worldwide standard.
Similar to the progression of bitcoin itself, nostr, and other open source projects.

2024-08-19 19:51:43

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All very good questions.
There are answers, though I’m probably not the one to solve most/all of them.

2024-08-19 19:48:56

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😂

2024-08-19 19:48:15

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Thanks! I’ll check it out.

2024-08-19 19:45:44

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I didn’t hear his interview, but I’m very familiar with this point of view. I think most of the people who hold this view are at least one or two years early.

2024-08-19 19:44:05

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Way beyond my skill set.

2024-08-19 19:43:19

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Do it! 🔥

2024-08-19 19:43:04

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And $NVDA over the past decade. Only a small number will outperform the corn over the next decade as well, I’m guessing.

2024-08-19 19:35:23

The stock market… worldwide… but priced in bitcoin and built on the rails of the Bitcoin network.
This is inevitable.
Seriously. Who is building this?
I want to participate in this FOSS effort.

2024-08-19 19:09:35

Being a life-long truth seeker (it’s how I’ve always been wired) occasionally got me in trouble with a few teachers and even college professors in my younger days. 😂
But, over time, this thirst also led me to:
- become a devout follower of Jesus Christ
- the Bitcoin network
- and now, #nostr
And for these things, I am extremely thankful.
Other than these few things, I’m aggressively pragmatic.
How about you?
Are you a truth-seeker? If so, where has it led you?

2024-08-19 18:25:26

If you haven’t used the word “oophorectomy” in a sentence today, then we are not the same.

2024-08-19 17:13:42

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As a fellow freedom-lover, I would recommend not worrying so much about the actions of others... whether they do or don't do the things you think they should.

2024-08-19 16:56:59

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Correct.
We all have to start somewhere, no?

2024-08-19 16:32:22

Folks over on X are having a difficult time understanding why I’m focusing my efforts on #nostr.
Here’s why: https://image.nostr.build/c01cbf357f65c2f0f2f3510aa0e7cb0d88ad0cb2f227a1c131b5827bf2fd73de.jpg

2024-08-19 15:51:05

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Max Keiser, whose opinions I generally respect, and many of his followers consider Bitcoin to be God… which I consider blasphemous.

2024-08-19 15:34:22

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Indeed. Sadly.

2024-08-19 15:34:02

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Welcome to #nostr!

2024-08-19 15:31:24

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Possibly.
But my schedule is really tight over the next several weeks.
Maybe in mid-September or later?

2024-08-19 15:06:56

“You make a god out of whatever you take most pleasure in.”
- John Piper

2024-08-19 14:17:19

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Thanks for the good work that you do, Jeff! 🤝

2024-08-19 14:08:18

What I'm watching... 👀
An ongoing positive divergence between the price of bitcoin (red line) and global M2 money supply (green line) since June 26, 2024.
This is likely to (eventually) resolve with a price movement to the upside.
The longer it persists, the more likely it is to move further and higher to the upside when it eventually resolves.
In all seriousness... you love to see it.
https://m.primal.net/KEbg.png