Dr. Jeff
Dr. Jeff Ross

Random pleb, physician, and fund manager.

I generally don’t respond to DMs.

Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

NIP-05 Address

drjeff@nostrplebs.com

NIP-57 Address

fuchsiabadger8@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst0xtvrqlqxm0j0qpfgkuqh0wgkzl4judkvgdgd0e4d8pnyytlqlgpz4mhxue69uhhwmm59ehx7um5wgh8qctjw3usz9thwden5te0dehhxarjv4kxjar9wvhx7un89t9jys

Publishing to

wot.nostr.party

nostrelites.org

wot.utxo.one

Author Public Key

npub1k7vkcxp7qdkly7qzj3dcpw7u3v9lt9cmvcs6s6ln26wrxggh7p7su3c04l

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Last Notes

2024-11-07 13:05:57

What I'm watching... 👀
A strong negative divergence is forming on the $DXY daily chart.
After it's recent (impressive) surge, a US dollar breakdown is IMMINENT... and likely to be triggered by the (dovish) words of Jerome Powell and the (dovish) actions of the FOMC later today.
Why it matters:
A breakdown of the US dollar is NET POSITIVE for risk assets, emerging markets and--you guessed it--#bitcoin.
I wouldn't be surprised if #bitcoin pushes towards $100k by the end of 2024, given the current macroeconomic setup.
Not a bold prediction, just a guess. Let's watch. 🍿
https://m.primal.net/Lvfr.png

2024-11-01 13:39:43

I was honored to receive the following email announcement from BarclayHedge:
"Dear Jeff Ross,
Congratulations!
We are pleased to announce that Vailshire Capital Management LLC has been featured in BarclayHedge's Monthly performance rankings. Vailshire Partners, LP has ranked number 1 in the Multi-Strategy category for September 2024."
Amazingly, this is the fourth time so far in 2024 that Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund has achieved this award:
- March 2024: #1
- May 2024: #1
- July 2024: #1
- September 2024: #1
Shout-out to #Bitcoin for being the primary driver of this performance. ⚡
Just an encouraging message to share with your #tradfi and #macro friends... Not a solicitation to invest.
https://m.primal.net/LpLK.png

2024-10-14 13:51:35

Fiat monetary debasement is gaining traction, as reflected in the fiat price of the world’s only neutral energy money: #Bitcoin.
I expect this trend to continue—and actually accelerate—in the coming 12-14 months.

2024-10-11 16:11:31

#CrypticPosts
200 to 1000

2024-10-11 12:39:34

Three things that are real:
1. Conference burnout
2. Podcast burnout
3. Social media burnout

2024-10-10 19:46:18

- reply

I think it will be about the same as past cycles.
Human behavior is cyclical and often predictable.

2024-10-10 19:44:22

I know that I’m not supposed to care, but I pity the fool who is selling his #bitcoin today based on short term FUD.

2024-10-10 13:08:34

- reply

We will only see mild inflation acceleration from here. Very unlikely to repeat the 1970s.

2024-10-10 11:31:30

T minus 60 minutes for the US CPI report (September data) 🍿
#note1k6z…pnyg

2024-10-09 19:45:30

UPDATE: The dollar has been up bigly seven out the past eight trading days.
NO ONE COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING... 👀
#macro
#note1pfn…hx89

2024-10-09 17:50:17

#CrypticPosts
Oct 2024
<83 B
<63 SB
<43 BWL

2024-10-09 17:45:25

#CrypticPosts
2024: From 3 to 2.
2025: From 2 to 1?

2024-10-09 15:43:05

My stupid worthless non-investable short-term predictions which are not any sort of individual advice:
- The Oct. 10 US CPI will "surprise" many to the downside... "lower than expected!!"
Soon thereafter:
- The US dollar (which has recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- Interest rates (which have recently been surging) will rollover and head lower
- VIX (which has recently spiked) will turn lower
- Risk assets will resume their uptrend
- #bitcoin will make bold moves higher... since the next leg of the bull market has officially begun (slowly at first, then exponential in 2H 2025)
- Ironically, #inflation has likely already bottomed (as partially reflected in the coming low September CPI print) and should trend slowly higher over the coming couple of quarters

2024-10-07 20:15:38

Only 36.
Some I hope not to experience.
Onwards. ⚡️
#note1u9u…y50a

2024-10-07 15:43:01

#Bitcoin is the bane of the IMF’s existence.
Prediction: The IMF will rail against the growing Bitcoin network until the IMF ceases to exist.

2024-10-07 14:48:12

- reply

😂

2024-10-07 14:29:17

Just checking in…
How is the #58kforever gang holding up?
#note1f39…82k0

2024-10-07 13:22:02

- reply

I think George means well and obviously attracts a certain personality type.
Thanks to @npub1s05…eyhe and @npub1a2c…w83a, he is slowly coming around to #Bitcoin.

2024-10-07 12:27:30

GM.
Confidence is attractive. Arrogance is ugly.

2024-10-07 12:16:22

- reply

😂

2024-10-07 12:16:00

- reply

🍻

2024-10-06 15:53:50

It’s amazing how different the present and future world looks and feels when viewed with an accurate measurement tool.
#Bitcoin

2024-10-04 20:27:22

Just finished my quarterly (4Q 2024) memo for clients of Vailshire Partners LP hedge fund.
Note that I am limited by the regulators as to what I can share publicly (especially regarding unaudited results/returns), so I am sharing what I can in this edited copy for you.
It's a little confusing, as many numbers are XX'd for privacy.
Hopefully you will still find it useful.
Cheers!
https://conta.cc/4eRZbTS

2024-10-04 13:23:38

I don't know who needs to hear this today, but most Economists--especially the famous ones--have mid-to-terrible investment track records.
Choose carefully to whom you listen.

2024-10-04 12:49:36

September unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% (expected) and 4.2% (prior)
September US nonfarm payrolls: +254k vs +132.5k (expected) and +159k (prior; revised from +142k)
The Doom and Gloomers and Recessionistas are... wait for it... wrong again.
#macro
Onwards.
🐂

2024-10-03 23:42:43

I’m in a quandary, please help me decide something:
The US federal government is:
A. Mostly worthless.
B. Totally worthless.
🇺🇸

2024-10-03 15:11:57

Fellow physicians and providers:
Over time, the only way for you and your practice to provide higher quality services at ever-cheaper prices for your patients is to put your practice on a #Bitcoin standard.
The longer you wait to do this, the further you and your practice/business will fall behind.

2024-10-02 20:43:29

What do you get when the #58kforever gang meets Dr. Bull?

2024-10-02 19:33:24

- reply

🍻

2024-10-02 19:32:56

The best part about living on a #Bitcoin standard is the eventual realization that you’re not steadily growing poorer year after year.
Finally.
Your hard work actually matters and your efforts are multiplied over time.
This is the new way to grow.
#Bitcoin is Better Money for a Better World.

2024-10-02 19:25:41

- reply

Break a leg, Lyn!

2024-10-02 15:36:30

These Mastermind discussions with @npub1s5y…6q7z, @npub1s9z…nszc, and @npub1rtl…jtfs are some of my favorite conversations of the year.
Just four dudes sitting around, talking about life, the economy, #Bitcoin, Blackrock, scams, price targets... and whatever else Preston brings up.
Strong recommend that you pour yourself a beverage, put the discussion on, and enjoy the conversation with us.
Also, tune in to find out why I think @npub1rtl…jtfs will lose his #bitcoin bet and have to eat a pumpkin pie this Thanksgiving.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kgpeH9MOg0

2024-10-02 15:12:38

Pro tip: Never confuse venture capital backing with long-term value.

2024-10-02 13:30:45

- reply

Yes. I’ve always been a blue collar guy working in a white collar world.

2024-10-02 12:02:24

I must say that this conversation with @npub1zx5…wmqm and @npub15cp…6nda of Bitcoin Veterans was even more fun and wide-ranging than I had expected!
I even told my famous (infamous?) "Digging for Gold" story from my Nursing Assistant days while living in Jerusalem... Apologies to those with a weak stomach. 🤢 😂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR3Cf56dwys

2024-10-01 18:29:05

STATUS: While y'all are fretting over daily fiat price action, I'm stacking #radiology CME. 👀
https://m.primal.net/LHjd.png

2024-10-01 17:01:51

For any degens who insist on trading cyclical assets, here is a quick primer to help improve your longer-term performance:
- In cyclical BULL markets, Buy The Dips (only).
- In cyclical BEAR markets, Short (Sell) The Rips (only).
- In cyclical CRAB markets, Buy The Dips and Sell The Rips.
The challenging part for many noobs is determining what phase of the cycle (BULL, BEAR, or CRAB) we are in, and how your asset of choice historically performs in such a phase.
The majority of traders go broke because they don't understand such things and/or have little or no risk management system in place.
--------
** A much better option for 99% of the people reading this is to simply stack sats and chill. 😎 You will do better over the long-run than 99% of the people (including fellow Bitcoiners) who actively trade and/or attempt to time the markets. **

2024-10-01 14:14:36

GM #nostr.
(Purchasing) Power to the People.
#Bitcoin
#FreedomTech
https://m.primal.net/LHZg.jpg

2024-10-01 12:42:40

Regarding the US dollar:
I continue to believe it will be *generally* weaker over the coming 12 months or so... with the $DXY heading sub-100.
However, the recent surge lower has moved the dollar to OVERSOLD levels, and an impressive POSITIVE DIVERGENCE has occurred (see chart below... straight red line and straight green line).
This suggests, to me, that we will see a multi-day or multi-week bounce higher in the US dollar--the strength of which may impede any short-term rallies in risk assets or even #bitcoin.
After the expected bounce higher, hopefully before the end of October 2024, I think that the next #bitcoin bull market (in fiat terms) will begin in earnest.
Just my two sats. Feel free to disregard.
#macro
https://m.primal.net/LHVw.png

2024-10-01 12:04:49

Happy October!!
About a year ago, on another social media app, and after many hours of research, I posted the following:
October 2024
October 2025
October 2026
Someone write these down.
-------
It is now October 2024, and nothing in my mind (or the data I observe) has changed.
Onwards. 🐂
#Bitcoin

2024-10-01 12:01:24

- reply

🍻
#Nostr-only is simple: I want to quit spending my time, energy, and purchasing power on the centrally-controlled fiat system and focus on building the decentralized and secure future... currently via the #nostr and #Bitcoin networks.

2024-09-30 20:54:22

There are givers and there are takers and you know who you are.

2024-09-30 19:23:55

Complain less. Contribute more.

2024-09-30 17:18:20

Confession: I like real people. 🧡

2024-09-30 17:05:12

Peak fantasy world before reality hits hard.
History is cyclical.

2024-09-30 17:01:47

GM.
Orange is the new green.

2024-09-30 16:26:28

- reply

Ugh * its
I hate typos. 💩

2024-09-30 16:06:18

#NukeX and it’s “toxic nonsense.” 🔥
Welcome to #nostr, Tara!
#note1aqx…dtl3

2024-09-30 13:20:41

Thanks to @npub1s05…eyhe, every day I spend a little time contemplating:
- How can I further extract myself from the fiat system, of which I am deeply entrenched?
- How can I transfer more of my time, energy, and purchasing power into the #Bitcoin network?

2024-09-30 12:50:18

It really comes down to this simple decision matrix:
OPTION #1: If you would rather have life get continually more expensive while quality gets worse, then choose to save in dollars.
OPTION #2: If you would rather have life get continually more affordable while quality improves, then choose to save in #Bitcoin.

2024-09-29 11:07:04

This was a great conversation.
Thanks for having me on your show, @npub1r8l…x5dk! ⚡️
#note1kjf…gu5a

2024-09-28 19:25:35

A sly, roundabout way to devalue centralized social media.
#nostr

2024-09-26 20:26:09

What if, thanks to the Federal Reserve, credit events have essentially been replaced by debasement events?
Can major, traditional credit events even occur in the age of central bank manipulation?
(H/t to Jordi Visser and Raoul Pal)

2024-09-26 14:36:31

You still bearish, bruv?
Where my Doom and Gloomers at today?

2024-09-25 18:51:57

- reply

This might be your best interview yet. Thanks for setting it up with George. 🍻

2024-09-25 14:23:41

A mandatory listen for my #nostr peeps.
Another banger by @npub1s05…eyhe with George Gammon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwSj0qpT3jw

2024-09-25 12:52:49

We are early.
Don’t lose hope and, importantly, keep building and supporting #Bitcoin circular economies.

2024-09-25 12:34:05

- reply

Good analogy.

2024-09-25 12:30:52

If #Bitcoin is decentralized, secure, permissionless energy money…
then what is a share of a spot Bitcoin ETF?

2024-09-24 18:28:31

- reply

FWIW (not much), I think $CLSK below $10 is a killer buy for the next 13-15 months.

2024-09-24 13:48:11

If there is any risk for investors in the markets today, it's the risk of sitting on the sidelines--waiting for the terrible and *inevitable* #recession, constantly heralded by Doom and Gloomers--while risk assets and, especially, #bitcoin melt faces in 2025.
With a 12-14 month outlook, I continue to think that this is a terrible time to be overly bearish or conservative.
#macro
#investing
🐂

2024-09-23 19:21:14

The #bitcoin carry trade (aka, “speculative arbitrage”) remains the trade of the decade.
It’s hiding in plain sight from the majority of Wall Street traders and investors.

2024-09-23 13:42:45

- reply

Sorry. Can’t help you.

2024-09-23 13:40:05

- reply

Yes sir.

2024-09-23 13:29:16

After a much-needed multi-month sabbatical from doing any podcast interviews, I'm looking forward to getting back into the action this week!
Upcoming interviews include an always lively, quarterly Mastermind discussion with @npub1s5y…6q7z, @npub1rtl…jtfs, and @npub1s9z…nszc; as well as one-on-one conversations with @npub1r8l…x5dk and @npub1gfx…escl.
The transition from Dr. Bullcrab to Dr. Bull is complete. 🐂 It's time to get the party started...
#macro
#Bitcoin
#investing

2024-09-21 12:58:05

- reply

That’s unfortunate. I hope you recover quickly and completely.

2024-09-20 23:18:00

More #bitcoin circular economies, please.

2024-09-20 23:00:01

"Scarcity powers innovation."
- @npub1s05…eyhe

2024-09-20 19:47:56

- reply

25 mg of diphenhydramine might be helpful if you're still itchy and swollen.

2024-09-20 19:45:32

GOOD NEWS: I CHOOSE YOU TO BE MY YIELD.

2024-09-20 19:13:32

STATUS: Bored with seemingly every topic.

2024-09-20 15:42:09

- reply

Here’s a link:
https://www.clubhouse.com/room/p7pfN2aE8XiZ3RG92:9dUkU66dxiELDsddRK800s3_M_Vv3Xo8oTTGpc1ISM4?utm_medium=ch_instant_invite&utm_campaign=unZByzbmnk1eu2XLlIveCA-1430381

2024-09-20 15:19:13

It's been a minute...
So I'm thinking of opening a new (and probably short) Doom and Gloom Room today over on Clubhouse, for anyone interested in:
- macro
- Bitcoin
- bonds
- stonks
- living well
- investing wisely
As usual, I am not selling anything and the room probably won't be very interesting.
Any interest?

2024-09-20 15:09:09

Slowly at first.
Then all at once (with leverage).
🐂

2024-09-19 18:39:35

As anticipated, the 50 bps drop of the federal funds rate yesterday has resulted in a drop of the Prime Rate from 8.5% to 8.0%.
Short-term borrowers (those with HELOCs, credit card debt, etc.) should soon see some much-needed relief via lower rates in the coming days/weeks.
https://m.primal.net/KvAJ.png

2024-09-19 18:04:29

- reply

One of the reasons I came to #nostr was to escape Twitter Creed enthusiasts.

2024-09-19 18:03:49

Using @npub12vk…pugg, I swapped out my old "recommended" relays for the following relays, and have already noticed a better experience.
Thanks @npub1utx…50e8!
However, my phone's @npub18m7…q955 client is now unresponsive. The new clients are not shown on Damus, and when I try to add them, it won't allow me to do so.
Any thoughts @npub1xts…kk5s?
Without my Damus client, I have lost the ability to zap as well.
#note1qpy…pds6

2024-09-19 12:28:25

Doom and gloomers still calling for an imminent major #recession in the US this morning.
Doom and gloomers still wrong.
#Normalization, not #recession.

2024-09-18 22:38:21

I hate to be that guy... but I feel compelled to post that we are at (or very near) the point of saying goodbye to #58kforever forever.

2024-09-18 18:13:28

Prime rate is derived from the federal funds rate, which was lowered today from 5.25-5.5% to 4.75-5.0%.
HELOCs and other short term lending rates are based, in part, off of the prime rate.
Hopefully, many Americans who are getting beaten down by such high interest rates will feel some relief in the coming months... in the form of lower interest rate payments.

2024-09-18 18:04:40

- reply

No.
50 bps is a pretty typical first move and it's as the markets *expected*

2024-09-18 18:02:09

BREAKING: 50 bps it is.
"In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent."
#note1hd9…ly3y

2024-09-18 15:53:15

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I like the TA of $MSTR here... and like $CLSK even better for the short-to-mid term.

2024-09-18 15:39:39

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As for me, I like the stock.
But, as always, it's better to own the real thing... That is, bitcoin in cold storage.

2024-09-18 15:30:44

FYI.
Regarding the federal funds effective rate (FFER), overnight reverse repurchase (ORR) agreements, Treasury bills, and US net liquidity.
https://m.primal.net/Ktuh.png

2024-09-18 14:45:47

GM #nostr. ☕️ https://image.nostr.build/048d74de3ae1ffae4bc9b83b6160a28d586752a56e4658c0845035436fd2903d.jpg

2024-09-18 14:42:42

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They probably won't announce the start of QE (purchasing Treasuries and/or MBS) today. Instead, they are likely to focus on the federal funds rate and their future intentions (with the FFR).
US net liquidity is separate from global M2 monetary supply... but they generally ebb and flow in relation to each other.

2024-09-18 12:54:53

On the morning of (an unusually pivotal) #FOMC meeting, the CME futures market is predicting a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut of the federal funds rate, and a 35% chance of a 25 bps rate cut.
MORE IMPORTANT TO ME as a fund manager is what the FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell have to say (definitively) about the Fed's balance sheet going forward.
Will #QE begin in earnest? Or will the Fed wait for turmoil in the bond markets before ending "not-QT"?
In other words, will a new wave of liquidity begin to flow from the US government into the private sector? If so, at what rate?
Because we have non-free, centrally-manipulated markets, I will be watching today's events with great interest.
🍿 #macro
https://m.primal.net/KtoA.png

2024-09-17 21:50:01

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Bitcoin Magazine (via UTXO) is an investor.
But it is Dylan LeClair, specifically, who is the head of Bitcoin Strategy and speculative arbitrage for Metaplanet. Though he is still young, I have much confidence in Dylan and his abilities.

2024-09-17 21:14:15

There's a strong possibility that the next bull market will begin, in earnest, at 2pm ET on Sept 18, 2024.... Although it may start slowly at first while market participants wrap their heads around the FOMC statement over the ensuing days/weeks.
Late 1990s style.
Could be a humdinger for #bitcoin.

2024-09-17 20:22:28

UPDATE: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.0% (actual) vs 2.5% (expected) vs 2.5% (prior)
#Normalization, not #recession.

2024-09-17 17:32:13

"The only way to beat bitcoin is more bitcoin."
- @npub15dq…lm5m
I concur.
Wise speculative arbitrage is essentially the only way to outperform #bitcoin over the long-term.
$MSTR and $3350 seem to be doing a good job of it so far...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7XhzXMSAPo

2024-09-13 22:29:23

My favorite page on the StLouisFed .org (FRED) site:
"Buying eggs with bitcoins."
Since they started keeping track in January 2015 through August 2024, the price of a dozen eggs:
- In US dollars: Up +51.7%, from $2.11 to $3.20.
https://m.primal.net/KpFe.png
- In #bitcoin: Down -99.4%, from 925,406 sats to 5,348 sats.
https://m.primal.net/KpFd.png
CONCLUSION: Life gets ever more expensive the longer you save in dollars (or any government fiat currency), while it generally gets (much) cheaper the longer you save in #bitcoin.
Inflationary fiat currency versus neutral inelastic energy money...
The choice is yours.
Source: https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/06/buying-eggs-with-bitcoins/

2024-09-13 21:43:02

I am here for it. $MSTR
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149410-microstrategy-buys-183k-bitcoins-for-111b

2024-09-13 21:24:48

- reply

Same. 😢

2024-09-13 21:21:00

Back above $60k.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMzdpMDc4dGNiZjNxdG0wNXF1aWI3eWtycjZwYXNqcXVvdTFiNTluNCZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/l0MYH8Q83CXvKzXyM/giphy.gif

2024-09-13 19:57:18

A fantastic discussion about Risk... by Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, one of the great investors of our age.
Strong recommend.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/education/how-to-think-about-risk-with-howard-marks

2024-09-13 15:40:30

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It seems to depend on the day. Some days Primal (desktop) and Damus (phone) work great, while other days... not so much.
That said, they have drastically improved UI/UX over the past 12 months.

2024-09-13 15:34:47

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Nice.
And no, we transitioned in August from bullcrab to full-on bull. Sats won't be this cheap much longer, imho.

2024-09-13 15:30:17

The Times They Are A-Changin' 😂
You love to see it.
X is now dead to me.
#nostr for the win. 🧡 ⚡
#note1pcn…t0tp