drgo
Dr. Bitcoin, MD

While that may seem underwhelming, it is what one would expect _on average_ by looking at history and applying a plausible curve to fit the data as best one can.
While the trend line price is the real power in bitcoin, everyone is attracted by the blow off tops. Annual rates of return of 43% for 2025, 42-40% for 2026-2028 is in and of itself remarkable.
Will there be a period of time in the next few years where bitcoin price will be well above model price? Yeah. If you want to capture 95% of the daily price points in a band around the power law, simply take the model price and divide by about 2 and multiply by roughly 4.

2025-02-13 17:04:28

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Easy: I got the shit kicked out of me and had all my money stolen at a pivotal time in life. I was maybe 12 or 13. I had $300 saved up and it was my intention to use savings to get out of a shitty situation and make it to college.
Losing that money was a tough pill to swallow. Fast forward 20+ years and I read a slashdot article on Bitcoin. And then immediately I read the white paper, which is rather informal and easy to read compared to my undergrad training in astrophysics and math. I was running Bitcoin software within minutes. Only learned I had to select generate from a menu like a day or so later (the burden of being busy is that stupid things happen frequently).
It was a desire to provide a safe place for others to store money that can’t be stolen that lead me to mine. I was fortunate to have the right technical background to understand how bitcoin could work but not so much education so as to see ways that it might not work…Goldilocks zone for heart and head education pre-bitcoin.

2025-02-10 20:52:42

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Someone already paid it. That was quick.

2025-02-10 05:25:22

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Nah, the smartest

2025-01-11 19:39:18

That crazy neurosurgeon bitcoin guy Breedlove had on his podcast I think is more signal than noise. Not sure I buy all his EMF stuff but a lot of his other stuff seems plausible, especially regarding satoshi.

2025-01-10 21:27:01

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Believe it or not, some of Greg’s ideas that could be implemented today (as far as I can understand them) if we need more transactions per block have yet to be programmed but the groundwork for it has been laid (somewhere on YouTube there is a video of Greg going over space savings of cross input signature aggregation, but it requires schnorr signatures which weren’t available in the pre-segwit era).
Both of these guys are fully deserving of this recognition. We are all better off on account of their work.

2025-01-08 17:31:51

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Free energy would mean it’s essentially free to attack bitcoin network with your own hash power.

2025-01-07 17:48:19

New conspiracy theory:
1) free limitless energy/antigravity technology exists.
2) public disclosure of this technology will cause societal chaos.
3) Bitcoin was invented to incentivize continued suppression of this tech (because what value is proof of work if work is free?)
May I have my tin foil crown back now, please?

2025-01-01 22:40:58

So, 2025…we have two terrorist attacks in the first few hours of the year, one sending a clear message to Trump and Musk.
The new pandemic will be worse, though, I’m guessing.
Just remember, Kennedy was killed. He planned on restraining federal reserve via silver certificates. Saddam was killed. He tried to sell oil for euros. Gaddafi was planning a gold dinar…he was killed.
Trump pandering bitcoiners may be dangerous to his health. Just sayin.

2025-01-01 06:59:59

6.15 #bitcoin actually just might be the secret to eternal riches and something about desirable women…
There was a time when this wasn’t all that much money. Now it’s a respectable sum. In the not too distant future, this might buy standard male shallow dreams. And after that, multigenerational wealth.

2024-12-31 17:30:56

Anyone know a good source for bitcoin daily price data? I’m looking to grab price data for the same day every year from 2011-2024…

2024-12-30 16:39:15

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Oh, but but but you don’t understand…bitcoin has no intrinsic value and it’s dead!
https://bitcoindeaths.com

2024-12-30 16:37:45

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You must believe theft can’t occur. More power to ya.
Did you know there was a time in the US where the IRS could demand credit card records directly from the credit card company without a warrant to monitor population compliance with income tax? Congress outlawed this because IRS was weaponized for political purposes.
Remember, the US federal government has not has been given authority to tax income, not possession, and even that expansion of government power required a constitutional amendment. Being stolen from is not a taxable event. Government hasn’t been granted authority from the people to make it so.

2024-12-30 15:21:57

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You’re a special kind of stupid. Do you know how they prosecute? They can’t just look at whether or not a particular utxo was spent. Being stolen from and spending are identical on chain. They have to look at your meat space life to try and and figure out if you have income.

2024-12-30 15:18:44

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There is nothing identifying about having someone steal your private key.

2024-12-30 15:03:17

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You seem to be under the misapprehension that bitcoin private keys are some form of identification. Or that sending transactions necessarily identify the user. Are you familiar with dandelion transaction relay? tor? VPN? I used to run my own bitcoin tx relay where anyone within 20 miles of my antenna could send a transaction inside a wireless message to my gotenna and it would get relayed to the bitcoin network via my ISP.

2024-12-29 19:14:44

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I genuinely hope you can see the absurdity of your argument. I’ve been very fortunate to have been in bitcoin since mining blocks solo with my laptop in 2010. If you want your misconceptions directly addressed, I’m happy to dispassionately dispel them. But the meaningless banter timer has expired.

2024-12-29 02:15:40

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That word….i don’t think it means what you think it means.

2024-12-28 23:31:50

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lol, good one!
Tell me you don’t understand TCP/IP without telling me…

2024-12-28 19:35:50

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I don’t give advice. But transparent chain isn’t a problem if one can carefully think through how they transact and what info they keep in physical and digital form and where they keep it.

2024-12-28 02:55:45

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I don’t know what you mean. I lost all my bitcoin in a boating accident.

2024-12-27 01:04:08

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Let’s not be too harsh…we need lots of idiots with paper bitcoin so government will be ok only confiscating bitcoin held be third parties…if we educate enough people out of honey pots, they’ll try to confiscate self custodied bitcoin.

2024-12-26 04:48:23

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https://www.wordnik.com/words/misericord

2024-12-26 04:46:26

Typhoid Mary…is this a myth? Apparently she was held against her will for over 25 years, until her death in fact, as she tested positive for typhus but never had any symptoms.
I was taught in medical school she was an asymptomatic carrier, but the fact that they imprisoned her for it makes me wonder if it’s true. I’m too far from the molecular biology at the moment to judge for myself if such an asymptomatic carrier state is biologically plausible or not, but jailing someone on account of positive tests is something I’ll never trust in post covid.

2024-12-26 04:14:47

Ok, I like the opera web browser now. Can make AI images… https://image.nostr.build/2737cb1fbb20128316ebfc0469397cf3acefabb39171d8bf8a0d5f90b4433c07.jpg https://image.nostr.build/fb93b6d964e40ff63e2f51d4130a769e78e1dced6736891b84fa04d99075a0a0.jpg

2024-12-26 03:54:22

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She will be someday

2024-12-22 22:50:07

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Ouch…having run out of money paying for medical care for my middle child, I sold 100 bitcoin to make that month’s mortgage payment. It was a while ago, not a massive house 😂

2024-12-18 02:31:49

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I love audiobooks. Your voice is great for it. One factor that matters is clarity of speech, especially when listening at 3.5x. It takes patience and diligence to make sure one speaks well…I’m sure there’s an art or science behind it, but some people just can’t be understood at high speed.

2024-12-18 01:07:18

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Have you ever read audiobooks? I mean, have you ever been the person using their voice to record/create the audio book?

2024-12-17 17:14:56

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@npub126n…e9ll is a really interesting platform. It’s literally almost an OS in and of itself. Under the hood it’s highly configurable and can configure a computer as anything from a single app light client kiosk to a powerful multi application server.

2024-12-15 04:02:15

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lol…I suppose. There are dozens who got there before me. Many dozens. https://m.slashdot.org/story/138276

2024-12-10 22:32:48

If there is some big and powerful conspiracy out there, and bitcoin is the future, and we are early to bitcoin…where’s my invite to the cabal?
Or is nostr it and me and all you plebs are conspiring in public?

2024-12-06 16:09:12

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Ugh. Knee locking? Displaced fragment.

2024-12-06 14:57:13

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What better way to steal from the public than by crashing prices, buying stuff with newly printed money, and then letting the inflation this causes to raise prices of the stuff you just bought?

2024-12-06 05:30:19

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You’re only vulnerable your first decade of practice if you are financially prudent. But many physicians spend money too freely and end up working until they die because they’re always poor.

2024-12-06 05:18:47

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Greedy middle men and naive end points?

2024-12-06 05:14:49

I don’t advocate for killing people. Ever.
But insurance company executives must understand the severe stress they put on people by denying payment for medical services. Many will see denial as an act of aggression.
Additionally, we need to ask why our medical services cost so much in the first place. Doctors aren’t making as much as you might think given how much some people pay for medical care. We need to decentralize health care and make care hyper local.
The love of money is the root of all kinds of evil. Bitcoin doesn’t fix that.

2024-12-05 03:48:21

I have finally figured what MSTR is doing: demonetizing the stock market.
Say what?
You see, most of the value of stocks is in the future. That’s what a PE of 20 means (95% of value is future value). WTF is a PE of 20 if not a store of value? Stocks have acquired a store of value premium. This is a money function being transferred to stocks.
MSTR is taking the savings aspect of stock holding away at a premium and buying bitcoin instead.
The same thing will happen to art, real estate, bonds, etc.

2024-12-05 02:42:28

Not only will they crash the economy to force you to sell, I wouldn’t put it past them to pull a Covid 2.0 style pandemic.
Fiat rulers view power as their right and your property as their privilege.

2024-12-03 18:24:18

The more I think about it, the more I realize Bitcoin is an involuntary wealth redistribution scheme.
Normally revolutions don’t happen for light and transient reasons, but it’s not clear to me what caused bitcoin to take hold so quickly. Something tells me it’s not just the properties of Bitcoin or the nature of fiat itself to account for this.
Revolutions in general correct some injustice. Maybe it was one too many banker bail outs. Or confiscatory taxation enabled by editing the constitution to permit non per capita taxation.
I think historians will wrestle with this question one day.

2024-11-28 18:40:50

Today I’m thankful for my #coldcard Q hardware wallet. #Bitcoin would be worthless without a solution to the custody problem.
Thx @nvk et al!

2024-11-28 18:24:38

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I used to work in the hospital in the city spam comes from. Spam is surprisingly good stuff.

2024-11-27 11:22:46

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AP understands the value of the sats he saved fixing that mirror.

2024-11-25 01:51:28

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CTLV? I think it’s clever to have the utxo require the transaction to specify that the transaction itself was locked the appropriate amount of time…it’s not just enough to wait. Transaction must prove to script that it waited; reuses consensus code ingeniously

2024-11-25 01:25:43

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How about a typo filter that one can apply to notes…some AI thing to highlight possible typos and ask OP “is this what you meant?” OP could reply or zap the AI to signal agreement.
Editorial overlay as a service?

2024-11-24 22:20:43

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In medicine we know travel decreases medical service utilization. In essence, travel is for rich people and coupling wealth with healthcare is sad.

2024-11-24 21:13:26

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Federal government has no authority to tell state of Arizona what must be illegal in this regard.

2024-11-23 05:23:01

S&P 500 average annual rate of return for the past 15 years is 13.8%. Which is pretty good. If we assume same ARR for the next 16 years and we assume power law model of #bitcoin price is going to be spot on 16 years from today, buying bitcoin at any price less than $525,000 would yield an ARR of at least 13.8%. At $100,000 per bitcoin, this would imply an ARR of 22.6%
But we will only know the future once it has become the past.

2024-11-22 16:21:58

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@npub17ty…3mgl has a way to let you do it…putting first 11 or 23 words, then select remaining random bits and valid check sums supplied for that bit set. I can show you screenshots in a few mins if you want.

2024-11-21 16:58:27

Some set my bitaxe to mine on braiins pool…costs 11¢ in electricity to make 50 sats at my 18.5¢/kWhr. At this rate, I’ll have a dollar in sats in three weeks, for the bargain price of two dollars! But it’s an easy way to have spare sats around for tips.

2024-11-20 04:38:37

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It’s yummy and might be a product base you could sell.

2024-11-20 04:38:05

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Bingo. Saylor is no dummy. Bitcoin ain’t gonna overthrow the system in 5 years anyways.

2024-11-20 04:37:19

My overclocked bitaxe (maybe 401? I added a few heat sinks and can’t read model #) running at 675 MHz and 1275 mV is hovering around 850 GH/s. That’s about 60 sats per day or ballpark $20/yr…I could get 1TH/s but very easy to overheat (even a reboot would overheat it).

2024-11-20 02:25:11

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Probably prohibitively expensive, but if you buy a ribeye or strip steak and cut it thin and put it in a dehydrater overnight with a little salt and pepper, it’s ridiculously good. Like 40lbs of steaks won’t last a week in our family.

2024-11-19 17:34:43

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Too bad he didn’t get in to bitcoin early…he could have been perfect ;)

2024-11-19 15:46:10

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No, I mean legally a stupid and redundant move. It’s like outlawing shooting people as murder is already illegal. Or like passing laws that say the law must be equally applied.

2024-11-19 15:43:46

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ERA? Kinda stupid idea, right? As if it’s not already part of the constitution…

2024-11-19 13:43:57

Trump committed the political sin of appealing to real people rather than staying in his lane and only appealing to predetermined factions.

2024-11-19 13:11:42

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I live near Vegas, so that doesn’t feel like going anywhere.

2024-11-19 05:18:06

If anyone is wondering: is Donald Trump a real bitcoiner? I don’t think so. He redeemed his graded encapsulated casascius coin.

2024-11-19 04:53:23

What #bitcoin conference should I go to in 2025?

2024-11-18 17:10:46

Can anyone zap me 1 sat? Trying out coinos but not sure it’s working.

2024-11-18 17:04:26

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I don’t think coinos receives zaps. At least it seems my old wallet of satoshi is still receiving zaps for some reason.

2024-11-17 03:02:08

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Did the zap work? Should have com from coinos

2024-11-17 00:59:39

As a US iOS user, do I have any options for using a non-kyc Lightning wallet? One I can somehow link to Damus for receiving zaps? Primal is a privacy invading kyc-full non-starter.

2024-11-12 05:47:08

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Oh, he will. He’s a loved horse. But as far as preparation for death, he will kept medication wise appropriate for lion food use. It’s a lot of meat and people don’t like it…but lions eat $$$$ a lot of meat and they like horse, or so I’m told.

2024-11-12 05:18:18

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That’s a beautiful Maine coon…the smaller type…we have one

2024-11-12 05:05:40

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Can’t claim to be a saint, and bitcoin pumping doesn’t help.

2024-11-12 05:03:51

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2024-11-12 04:53:27

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Zapped a bid

2024-11-12 04:44:47

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Anyhow, take this info and share with those you know. Be empowered to make wise choices. Spread the love.

2024-11-12 04:36:12

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I’m hopeful this time will be different™
But even noble intentions are often railroaded by clever sly evil bastards…and noble intentions are far more rare than most believe.

2024-11-12 04:32:22

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FYI: about 1 in 10 screening mammograms will be read as positive. Most of these are false positives.
Roughly 1 in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer at some point during life (more if you include died with breast cancer).
Mammograms find about 5 out of every 6 cancers. Thus, about 1 in 70 women will feel a cancer we don’t see. About half of these are cancers we will never see regardless of size and the rest are too small to see compared to background.
In short, breasts are dangerous and imaging can’t save everyone…self exam matters…things that grow and grow and grow require an answer when the get to be about the size of half you thumb even if we can’t see the problem by mammogram / ultrasound (usually by surgical excisional biopsy or sometimes via MRI).

2024-11-12 04:25:40

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I’m a radiologist. Today was all breast imaging and intervention. Mathematically, it’s by far the most lifesaving thing I do. Almost everything else is salvage work well after shit’s already gone wrong.

2024-11-12 04:23:15

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I can outbid him. Care to reconsider?

2024-11-12 04:15:31

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Doing the same here. 12 hrs in the hospital saving boobies and I’m spent…a little R&R in the hot tub with a Merlot is just what this doctor has ordered for himself.

2024-11-12 02:51:03

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Pine is not elm.

2024-11-11 22:53:09

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lol…
When I look at bitcoin, I see me, not Caesar. They can’t take mine.

2024-11-11 22:42:16

…because as we all know, the entire alien ufo stunt is just a clever ruse to make you sell your bitcoin at deflated prices…

2024-11-10 21:01:54

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I’m all for civil disobedience against unjust laws, but I’m kinda shocked to learn this hasn’t been viciously prosecuted / persecuted in a while. It’s rare civil disobedience wins, but I suppose if there are many, none stand out to target. This is a positive development for a free and secure state…overreach can only extend so far.

2024-11-10 20:13:21

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IANAL, but intrastate it might not even be illegal. Interstate probably is.
All I know is the feds employ too many people in general and depending on the agency and personalities involved, the deeper they scrape in the technically illegal bucket.

2024-11-10 16:39:56

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FYI: law enforcement can open fed ex packages without a warrant.
If you use UPS, this requires a warrant.
Also, email stored on a server like Gmail doesn’t require a warrant either…whenever you use a third party (like a bank or credit card for payments), you have no expectation of privacy under American legal precedent and warrant-less searches are the norm.

2024-11-10 16:30:41

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The more solutions along the on-chain to on-the-exchange spectrum the higher probability that one can find the right risk/efficiency bin that suits their use case.
The fewer bins, the more value goes in to the wrong bin, with a variety of negative down stream effects…

2024-11-10 06:08:34

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Welcome to the Wild West.

2024-11-10 06:05:04

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Balance is tricky. If I have too many dollars, wife starts wanting pricey stuff. If I have too few, I do less stuff with family…steady DCA keeps everyone happy…
I’ve done DCA with chump change since 2013. After learning of plan B’s S2F model in spring 2019, I started stacking meaningfully…ironically, my residency chump change DCA buys make up a very substantial fraction of my DCA bitcoin stack.
If I weren’t an idiot, I’d be a billionaire. I could have bought 100,000 bitcoin for $10,000 or so if I 1) borrowed money and 2) worked hard to scoop up many trades on the pre-Gox bitcoin marketplace…but such an amount of dollars seemed impossibly large at the time.

2024-11-10 05:51:51

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I’d welcome $58k…Like every cycle, I realize I didn’t take enough risk. But my DCA made it feel like no risk…I don’t quite understand how a little bit frequently seems like nothing but half the total amount at any one time seems like way too much. My brain and money don’t mix…
C’est la vie. Gotta leave sats for some laggards I suppose!

2024-11-07 01:31:09

@npub1rtl…jtfs did you see Trump spent his coin 3000 blocks or so ago?

2024-11-06 15:31:32

I can’t wait until block 1,060,000…it’ll be here sooner than you’d think. Probably days sooner if hash rate history is anything to judge by.

2024-11-06 15:26:55

Do people really say Know-stir?
I’ve been thinking of it more like naw-stir

2024-11-05 06:45:27

There are days where I start to think #Bitcoin is better than #boobs…
…and then I come to my senses. Bitcoin is worth nothing in comparison to the things that make life worth living.

2024-11-03 22:06:46

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And every son desires this of his dad

2024-10-29 03:41:43

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This is why I always vote Democrat: to accelerate a system reset by allowing all the worst choices to be made, forcing people to reject the system.

2024-10-28 20:45:36

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I did make money on a Ponzi scheme though…I forget how much. Maybe 0.1 bitcoin. I have to look it up. Google trendon shavers / pirateat40

2024-10-28 20:42:30

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Exactly.
I lost 0.1 bitcoin once on a wallet called instawallet.
Never again…

2024-10-28 20:40:02

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He he he. Boy will be boys.

2024-10-28 16:41:16

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What setup do you use? I have wallet of satoshi on an old phone and Muun on my new one b/c I can’t use WoS on my new phone. But it’s not obvious how to receive zaps on Muun….

2024-10-26 15:01:24

If climate change were so important, 1) we’d have a lot of nuclear power and 2) the public would be far far more exposed to the actual science itself.
Why? 1) best energy bang for the carbon buck and 2) science is the only means of trust free argumentation.
Critical evaluation of scientific methods and data is not some highly sophisticated endeavor only few people are capable of. At least 10% of society can do this.