RolloTreadway

Autistic Welsh NHS emergency care quality improvement person.
(they/them or he/him - don't really have a gender to speak of but those are familiar.)

Most important:
Trans rights are human rights; Black lives matter; Tories always despise you even if they pretend not to.

Enthusiastic about woodland, cricket, silent film, constitutional stuff, birds, gardening, tea, sandwiches.

(Profile pic: Buster Keaton sits unhappily in a steamship funnel; header is a glass teapot full of leaves.)

Public Key

npub196rh2q8z4n6wysl06l0rwnzqa9hpgk0rylrtkn8egd6pa5qvtf3srcpqzp

NIP-05 Address

RolloTreadway_at_beige.party@mostr.pub

Profile Code

nprofile1qqszapm4qr32ea8zg0ha0h3hf3qwjms5t83j034mfnu5xaq76qx95cc8p9j7e

Author Public Key

npub196rh2q8z4n6wysl06l0rwnzqa9hpgk0rylrtkn8egd6pa5qvtf3srcpqzp

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Last Notes

2024-08-20 11:16:14

Why is it that (to me, not sure about anyone else) having one task that'll take six hours feels so much less overwhelming than six tasks that will take one hour each?
I'm being battered with small tasks at the moment and I do not like it at all.

2024-08-11 17:12:31

I walked in the woods for a bit.
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/944/503/153/026/663/original/6bbb7c040200a892.jpg

2024-08-06 06:32:26

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Is it really a rule if you change it all the time?

2024-08-04 19:01:19

Foam bananas are addictive. I may need an intervention. #food

2024-08-03 08:27:09

Also, I've had shopping delivered. Well done past me for booking that this morning.
For some unfathomable reason, Sainsbury's sell packets of shrimps and bananas separately rather than together. So I bought a few of each. But they were out of the shrimps and substituted further bananas.
So I now have lots and lots of foam bananas.
#food

2024-08-03 07:25:06

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Can't help being a bit confused by the argument: "we need to protect nature from these things that are being built to mitigate climate change".

2024-07-27 08:27:06

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@npub1exc…ggj2 Yes, I do. My thoughts are very often a discussion between what I think of as my rational and irrational selves. They're both me, not separate personalities, but looking at things in different ways.

2024-07-26 14:04:54

I have something (not terribly well focused) for #FungiFriday. Also a bit of #mosstodon.
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/852/958/403/535/117/original/3ad6a3f7cb86b500.jpg

2024-07-26 13:07:52

Had leftover curry for lunch. It was so good. #food

2024-07-23 12:47:55

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@npub198t…hasj And you're going to let it, yes?

2024-07-20 17:47:01

Unrelated to classic Western scores, I've brought in my first pea harvest today.
I've grown runner beans for a few years now, but this is my first attempt with peas. Peas!
#gardening
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/820/067/771/788/445/original/95d16908dfeccb62.jpg

2024-07-17 20:05:49

My landlord and neighbours may not wholly agree, but it brings me joy that - from some angles at least - you can't tell that my little garden is paved. Save for a little room to move about, I've tried to cover all of it.
#gardening
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/803/609/373/715/692/original/5363ca18737ec4d8.jpg

2024-07-16 13:13:35

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@npub18lj…80hq The Meat Department? Why do men insist on coming up with so many different names for their penis?

2024-07-10 06:37:56

Morning everyone. Awfully tired. I really need a break - a break from everything except rest - but none of that is coming any time soon.
Earworm this morning is Chewing Chewing Gum by Super Furry Animals. https://youtu.be/Z3ex0VKYHkY

2024-07-07 18:46:51

I've put some bhajis in the air fryer, which I shall enjoy with some minty yoghurt dressing. #food

2024-07-07 08:41:26

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Yes, but those offices weren't just for him, they had to be shared with Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox.

2024-07-05 06:20:10

Fuck, I'm going to have to do some work now.

2024-07-05 05:23:02

If Green and Reform end up with the same number of seats, which looks likely at the moment, I'm sure they'll get exactly the same amount of press coverage. That'll definitely happen, right? Right? #GE2024

2024-07-05 05:10:31

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@npub1700…8tth I believe so, yes. Unless I'm confused.

2024-07-05 05:05:05

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@npub1700…8tth I think it's four, with Waveney Valley .

2024-07-01 07:04:31

Morning everyone. I have nothing much to say this Monday morning. My very appropriate earworm is Grey Day by Madness.
https://youtu.be/JmBA7e-G21Q

2024-06-22 07:08:36

Morning everyone. Happy Windrush Day! Here's a video with Lord Kitchener singing on board the Windrush, that had just arrived at Tilbury. https://youtu.be/ygBOb_XddwI
(The video says 21st June; this is because the ship arrived on the 21st but disembarkation wasn't permitted until the 22nd. Consequently, it's the 22nd of June that is used as the anniversary each year.)

2024-06-18 06:58:19

For the #TuneTuesday theme of #NotAllWhoWanderAreLost, I've got some fine bluesy soul to help you all wake up. Or go to sleep. Or whatever.
Howard Tate - 8 Days On The Road
https://youtu.be/rZo_Ce8ZHaY

2024-06-16 07:24:20

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I'm going to start describing myself as a Consultant. I mean, people have occasionally consulted me about some questions they've had, so I don't see a problem.

2024-06-12 15:50:34

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@npub10zv…nz7m If the Tories are saying that we're sleepwalking into a one party state, does that mean that they don't expect to ever win an election again?

2024-06-11 15:56:02

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@npub18lj…80hq Autistic people aren't all mathematical geniuses (nor any other characteristic from the film Rain Man).

2024-06-11 15:54:58

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@npub1mmf…eknq Thank you! I thought that would probably be the case, but wanted to make sure.

2024-06-11 15:51:38

Can anyone help with a quick #gardening question?
I have these dahlias growing. They're doing quite well. Do I need to thin them out or will they be happy as they are?
Many thanks.
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/598/783/979/019/761/original/82dd13dbd982a835.jpg

2024-06-09 17:57:58

Phew! I've had a very busy day!
When I've not been asleep on the sofa.
And I've spent much of the day asleep on the sofa.
But for the brief time when I've been upright, I've been busy!

2024-06-08 13:39:27

New music for you all! Or, new music with which you can be bored for the few seconds it takes you to dismiss this post!
But but but please don't ignore because this is A LOT OF FUN. It's a Japanese electronic producer and an Indonesian experimental gamelan composer, making lots and lots of chaotic beats. It's absurd madness and I love it.
Takkak Takkak - Takkak Takkak
https://nyegenyegetapes.bandcamp.com/album/takkak-takkak
#music #NowPlaying

2024-06-07 11:13:47

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@npub10zv…nz7m I'm sure Tony Hart would be very impressed!

2024-05-28 06:51:29

Morning everyone. Not a particularly happy morning for me. Apart from feeling rubbish and oh so tired, I have this year's bullshit appraisal meeting at ten.
I used to get very anxious about these, but now they just annoy the hell out of me. It's meaningless; I have to pretend that I've developed professionally and plan to make significant career progress in the next twelve months, when there's no possibility for either (and I've spent all my time dealing with data problems).
At least the senior colleague who's doing the appraisal knows that this is the case.

2024-05-25 08:50:07

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I think there are many countries around the world that do the rule of law with rather more common sense than we do!

2024-05-23 16:29:29

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@npub18lj…80hq I've come across some people who get bizarrely angry about the existence of mayonnaise and are determined to somehow prove that it's wrong.

2024-05-23 08:01:23

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@npub198t…hasj I guess you're not the clumsy type. Seeing that much water beside a computer gives me a vicarious panic attack.

2024-05-22 09:38:22

Okay, I've cut my hair, I've cleaned the bathroom, I've done a little life admin, I've fed the birds, I've fed myself, now I think it's time to try and call the internet people.

2024-05-18 10:21:00

I'm in the woods again. I did consider going for a longer walk to a further woods. But I haven't the energy. And these are right here.
I think this would make a good #SilentSunday. Except it's Saturday. And, really, it's not silent in the slightest - many birds competing to shout over the noise of the little waterfall (or rapids, maybe it counts as rapids).
#trees #nature
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/461/588/556/075/717/original/ed30447b221d0c6b.jpg

2024-05-16 15:37:31

What an awful day. And now I'm at the dentist. Wish me luck, please, I'm very much going to need it.

2024-05-13 17:54:47

I have a question for people who speak English better than I do (even though it's the only language I've ever been fluent in):
If an individual uses they/them/their pronouns, do you tend to use themself or themselves as the reflexive pronoun? I can never make my mind up, sometimes I find myself saying one and sometimes the other.
Is there a standard accepted form here?

2024-05-12 15:56:47

#SilentSunday
https://media.beige.party/media_attachments/files/112/428/935/020/289/145/original/1a97565317b78760.jpg

2024-05-08 16:48:51

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Attention?

2024-05-06 07:22:37

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Decades of evidence about how poverty and inequality drive obesity - rather than the other way around - but of course, the real problem is that overweight poor people aren't contributing enough to capitalism.

2024-04-15 09:12:06

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I'm curious what Parliament is the grey line that begins between the red ones, showing significantly higher gains in the lower percentiles. I'm guessing Attlee? But not sure how far back the chart goes.

2024-03-24 09:30:29

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@npub12mc…xdp7 @npub1g0t…tvm4 If this does happen (and I'm sure it will to an extent), it would potentially be worse for the Tories - because most constituencies centred around a university are very unlikely to return a Tory MP anyway, but if lots of students are voting back home, that will scatter their votes to various places across the country, some of which will inevitably be marginals.

2024-03-24 08:33:39

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I think capitalism relies on a social imperative, yes, of creating endless situations where one person chooses to do something, resulting in multiple people feeling obliged to do the same (whether that's the need to react with to the new situation in a way that seeks to prevent harm to oneself, or a simple social pressure of watching the same tv show or whatever).
And that's capitalist growth. The new activity spreads from one to many, voilà, growth. Whether the new activity is in any way necessary is irrelevant. Indeed, probably better for the capitalists if it isn't, because people acting through necessity is harder to influence in such a way that optimises profit.
Again apologies if this wasn't supposed to be a question to be answered.

2024-03-21 10:10:50

The #ThursdayFiveList (from @npub1rz5…4cv7 via @npub13xq…4vca) is #TheHatedHit.
This theme is for songs that are famed much-loved classics that you've absolutely had enough of. I'm tempted to say 'the entire Beatles canon', but I'll pick five songs like I'm supposed to.
And yes, I know it's very easy and predictable to hate on the Beatles, but that's not what I'm doing here. There are lots of very popular bands that I've never liked at all, like Pink Floyd, Oasis, Steely Dan, and so on. But I liked the Beatles, I really did, until I got absolutely sick of not just the Beatles but the endless shit that goes around them. I hear there's going to be four Beatles biopics coming. A Ringo Starr biopic?!? Nobody has ever wanted or needed that. Yeesh. Sick of this shit.
So, here, four Beatles songs that particularly get on my wick, plus one very obvious and inexplicably popular Beatles-adjacent monstrosity. You're not getting any links because you already know these songs off by heart.
The Beatles - Ob-La-Di Ob-La-Da (If this was by literally anybody else it would shunned in polite society)
The Beatles - The Long and Winding Road (there's an appalling scene in the film Yesterday which really turned me against this one)
The Beatles - Taxman (seriously, you actually wrote those words? ffs George get a grip)
The Beatles - Yellow Submarine (not blaming the Beatles specifically for this, it's just the most grotesquely ill-used song in history)
John Lennon - Imagine (fuck off and keep fucking off until you've reached the very outer limits of fuck off and then fuck off a bit more)

2024-03-20 08:35:02

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I believe the specific problem in this case is that far right (also true of far left!) has no widely accepted definition. I suspect you and I probably have a similar view of what qualifies as far right, but if we met someone on the right of the Tory party, their view would be significantly different. Similarly, a couple of days ago I came across someone here arguing that Labour are far right. And of course the aforesaid Tory right person likely thought Corbyn was far left.
Radical right and extreme right may be more clearly defined academic terms. But I do feel there's a wider issue of imprecision in how we refer to political extremes. Some but not all of the far right is nativist; some but not all is statist; some but not all is totalitarian; some but not all is libertarian; and so on and so on.
For example: you might have noticed a few months ago, there was widespread inconsistency in how the return to power of Robert Fico and his Smer party in Slovakia was covered, with varying descriptions of their politics from hard left to hard right. Smer's politics are nativist, authoritarian, socially hardline conservative - but also strongly opposed to libertarianism and capitalist dominance, supportive of labour rights, a large public sector and progressive taxation.
We lack a single easy term to describe such politics. Yes, we can easily point to someone like Trump and say: far right, fascist. But most modern populist politics doesn't lend itself to such simple terms. And so someone like Tice can say that he can't be far right because far right is a derogatory term for a, b, c and he believes in x, y, z.
Still, you're right, a test case would've been interesting. But we also need to start using better language for describing political extremes.

2024-03-16 08:25:55

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 Sorry, my autistic mind naturally takes questions literally and isn't good with rhetorical questions!

2024-03-16 08:06:43

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I think a number of reasons.
There'll be the people for whom voting Tory is an integral part of their identity, and they wouldn't dream of doing anything else.
There'll be the people with local Tory MPs who they like, and will vote for them even if they dislike the wider party.
There'll be the people who don't follow politics at all, and are personally doing well enough not to think about voting differently.
And there'll also be the complex calculations, the secretive formulae that polling companies use to predict how many alienated former Tories will actually end up crossing that box on the day. That's the tricky bit, the biggest reason why polls sometimes go wildly wrong (in various directions). Given how many alienated Tories there are right now - far more than in 2019 - those calculations are doing a lot of heavy lifting.
A personal note on this. My mother is very much part of the first group. She votes Tory as part of her identity, much as she writes CofE on the census but never goes to church. For the past couple of years, she's been insisting that she absolutely won't vote for them this time; she wants to vote Green, but doesn't know if they'll put up a candidate where she is.
If there is a Green candidate, I suspect she'll stick to her promise, but if not, I can definitely see her backsliding and voting for the Tory because she doesn't know what else to do.

2024-03-08 14:03:19

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@npub1lfc…tcpf @npub1w88…zdnx @npub1gxt…j9na @npub1g0t…tvm4 The power to change Labour's direction mid-Parliament, or over a longer period, lies above all with the unions. We need the public sector unions to throw their weight around; Unite already have a meaningful threat of disaffiliation, having held a vote on it last year, and I hope my union (Unison) is also active in this respect.
As for bringing in electoral reform, that too needs pressure on Labour from the unions. We've pushed Labour into major policy changes many times over the decades, and we can do so again. But it's a slow process; the vote at conference was the beginning, not the end, a door finally opening not closing.
However, I've spent my adult life arguing for electoral reform and believe me: it's not much of a vote winner. No party is going to prioritise it at a time of crisis. The possibility of the next Parliament introducing reform - whatever the makeup of that Parliament might be - is absolutely zero. But this is a long fight, and we have to look beyond the next few years, to a time when there is hopefully more political and economic stability, and constitutional change can be made more of a priority.
But the one thing that must not happen is rewarding the Tories. A hung Parliament would be a disaster. They are going to run the most far right electoral campaign in British history, and every seat they win is an affirmation of that extremism. If they win enough to force a hung Parliament, this country is doomed. We owe it to the future to destroy that party entirely.

2024-03-01 09:34:46

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I think it's highly unlikely that there will be any nationwide impact by independent candidates.
There will likely be one or two individual constituencies where an independent is relevant - as with, say, Richard Taylor and Martin Bell in previous elections, and there was an independent who came close to winning a seat in Pembrokeshire in 2015. This year, I imagine Jeremy Corbyn will win as an independent, and I wouldn't be hugely surprised if a local independent did well (though probably not winning) in Ashfield, which has a significant independent presence in local government.
But as a whole? No. The chances of independents changing the results in more than a handful of constituencies is vanishingly small, and I don't think that a wild outlier - a by-election in a safe Labour seat where Labour didn't stand - is significant in that respect.
I think the one notable thing from Rochdale, however, is that Reform returned to irrelevance after their strong-ish showings the other week. The results that they've had in by-elections across the last year or so strongly suggest that their support is coming almost exclusively from disenchanted Tories in Tory-held seats, and they're nowhere near the success in working class seats that their brexity predecessors enjoyed.

2024-02-09 07:29:33

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 More seriously, this is why the Tories, just like their GOP friends in the US, want to end fair elections.
The politics of the 80s, the focus on benefiting homeowners and the already wealthy, put the Tories (and the mainstream right in every country that did the same) in a quandary: to win in the present, they had to maximise support amongst ageing voters; to win in the future, they had to win over younger voters enough to turn 'never Tories' into voters who could turn Tory further down the line.
And the more they chose the former, the less likely it became that younger voters would ever become Tory as they approached middle age. They've alienated so many voters that by the middle of this century, the party could cease to exist.
The only tool left to them is to retain power illegitimately. If hardly anyone born after the mid-80s is ever going to vote for them, then it's voting that has to go (or be so distorted as to lose all meaning).
This is why it seems absurd to me when people say, 'if the Tories win maybe there'll be a better Labour next time', 'if Trump wins maybe there'll be a better Dem candidate next time'. If the right wins there isn't going to be a next time, not in any meaningful sense. The GOP have already made this abundantly clear. The Tories aren't quite as far along the road, but they can move faster because there are no constitutional obstacles to hold them back.
People become so used to democracy that they don't realise how bloody fragile it is.

2024-01-31 07:07:48

Morning everyone. I hope you feel better than I do. Slept badly, and I've had exhausting dreams for days (or nights rather), plus... *gestures* all of the things. And I feel like I've been in a terrible accident of some kind.
Also, I woke up with Tainted Love in my head. The original Tainted Love, by Gloria Jones (the original original, because she rerecorded it several years later). So here, have it in your head too.
https://youtu.be/LSv9LOMDhbU
#music #earworm

2024-01-24 06:45:20

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I would like a government, any government, to try and figure out a way to stop public IT systems always being a complete disaster. It must be possible.

2024-01-22 08:02:40

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 The issue I have with this article - and a lot of similar articles - is that there's no mention of electoral reform.
Because Starmer, like Blair before him, isn't aiming to convince every Tory voter, he's aiming to convince a few hundred thousand people who lean broadly centre-right.
That's not to say he's necessarily doing a good job of it, that's a different argument. But as things stand, a few dozen sixtysomethings in Nuneaton who own their own semi-detached houses have more powerful votes than a million under-40 renters in major conurbations.
None of this will ever change without electoral reform.

2024-01-16 17:55:48

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 @npub1t3r…6knd I think that producing an FT graph in poker would be such a surprise, it would just baffle everyone and you'd be fine.

2024-01-16 06:47:51

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 If you went back in time, and told me everything that Trump did and is doing - but didn't tell me who was doing it - then I'd completely believe it.
A far right dictator with the overwhelming support of the evangelical vote, that has long seemed to be on the cards.
But I would have expected a slick, smooth, immensely wealthy snake oil salesman, a performative religious fanatic in perfect clothes and with endless charm.
What I've never remotely come close to understanding in all of this is: they went for an utterly ludicrous buffoon? Really?

2024-01-13 09:11:59

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I've seen the comparison to the Falklands a lot in the past 24 hours, and I'm sorry, but I don't buy it.
For one thing, there is a much more recent example of how military involvement in the Middle East is really not very popular.
Moreover, it overlooks the reason why the Falklands conflict had such a distinctive political presence: it was a British territory full of British citizens, invaded by an unfriendly dictator. The wrong political lesson seems to have been taken; it's not that war is popular - I would argue that war hasn't been politically popular since about 1915 - but that defending British territory and citizens is popular.
No, I think this is all looking for subterfuge rather than the boringly prosaic answer: big corporations need to use the the Strait of Hormuz. Especially including fossil fuel giants. The US is always going to help out its corporate interests, and always has done, and the UK does what it's told.

2023-12-31 09:33:55

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I have very strong thoughts about Lexiters, but as it's a festive time of year, I shall be polite and keep them to myself. Otherwise there may be a few very rude words.

2023-12-28 07:30:21

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I never could stand either Pink Floyd or Fleetwood Mac. But I think the kind of taste to which they appeal has always existed and will always exist.
The mainstream is always going to be more popular than the fringes; doesn't mean that anyone is right or wrong.

2023-12-19 17:49:06

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I don't have the figures to hand, and I'm far too tired to find them, but I believe that unclaimed benefits (a de facto + in the treasury's balance sheet) massively exceed losses to benefit fraud.
One could argue that failing to ensure that everyone entitled to benefits actually claims them is a form of fraud on the Government's behalf.

2023-12-12 07:08:45

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 And also: more likely to be working a job (or often multiple jobs) that makes it difficult to exercise - it might have zero hours but require you to be on call all the time, it might leave you with zero energy at the end of the day, you might have a much longer commute because you can afford to live nearby, you might be working longer hours to make ends meet.

2023-11-25 09:37:38

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 I think it's a mistake - albeit a common one - to imagine that electoral reform can be used as a tool to inhibit certain parties or ideologies. If people want to vote for the far right, or any other political position, then they will do so.
The far right can only be defeated by persuasion, by actively trying to stop people believing in them. It's difficult, but it's all we have; if we seek to create systemic obstacles it only increases their conspiratorial arguments, ultimately leading to their support being enough to overcome those obstacles (as has happened with AfD in Germany).
Yes, the design of the system can help limit the impact of the far right when they have support. Consider, for instance, how Smer in Slovakia have been forced to form a government with parties much further to the left because they didn't get enough votes to run a populist right government (as may happen in the Netherlands). Or how in Spain, the scale of opposition to Vox has actually led to the conservative PP being unable to form a government.
However, look at Hungary, which has a mixed member voting system. It should be proportional. But a combination of gerrymandering and media domination has led to it being as disproportional as FPTP, allowing Fidesz to enjoy huge Parliamentary majorities without comparable vote shares. In Italy, the far right are currently looking to make changes that will have a similar result, albeit through different systems.
Consequently, I would argue that, in terms of limiting the practical power of extremists, constitutional guardrails are far more important than the electoral system itself - and notably, we have very little of that in the UK. If we reform the electoral system whilst still relying on the 'good chap' principle to protect us from authoritarianism, then we're screwed.
Ultimately, I continue to stand by what I've always said, in decades of pushing for electoral reform: the only reason to support electoral reform is because it's the right thing to do, because if you believe in democracy then you should want everyone to have full and equal democratic rights.

2023-11-05 10:08:36

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@npub1g0t…tvm4 This reminds me of a couple of years back, at the time the Colston statue was pulled down, I was shocked to find that most people in Britain hadn't learnt about slavery in school, nor the wrongs of empire.
We studied slavery, we went to what was then the permanent slavery exhibition at the Merseyside Maritime Museum (since spun off into its own museum of international slavery), and we also spent a lot of time learning about Amritsar and the Salt March.
It was astonishing to find this wasn't universal, not even close. I can't understand why all kids don't learn this stuff.

2023-10-10 07:26:13

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@npub1hpc…hjn3 There was a surge about a week ago, wasn't there? I'm sorry, I've been on holiday so my brain is a bit fuddled, but I was sure there's been a significant surge very recently. Maybe the wave is going back out. There'll probably be another surge soon.
But I don't think direct replacement is ever going to happen. I think the environment is changing, and we're moving towards people being ever more scattered amongst a larger number of smaller platforms. Some of which will be fedi platforms, most will be corporate because, well, they have money.
However, all of this takes time. It's not realistic to expect many millions of regular Twitter users - happy Twitter users who won't move unless they're forced - to move rapidly to a platform which most of them won't have heard of until recently.
And especially not when most of them will already have accounts on at least one of Facebook, Instagram and Tiktok - all of which are vastly bigger than Twitter has ever been. Their friends are already there, in established communities. That's a much bigger draw than Mastodon can ever offer.

2023-10-10 07:04:19

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@npub1hpc…hjn3 Mastodon (and wider fedi) usage always fluctuates - in the past year and a half, there's been a consistent theme of huge increases when Musk does something stupid, followed by many, but not all, of those new accounts drifting away.
It's like a tide that carries shells towards a beach: with each wave, many shells wash up on the shore, and most are immediately pulled back out to sea; but with each wave, a few shells get left behind and become part of the beach.
More generally, though, I think the idea of any single social media platform becoming truly dominant is dead, if it ever truly existed in the first place (and it's always worth remembering that Twitter was *never* that big, *never* so large as its outsize cultural presence in some countries suggested).
Mastodon and other fedi platforms don't have to become huge. They just need to be big enough for the people who want and need to use them, one of many islands in the social media ocean.