todmann67

zerohedge.com

Commercial real estate, law, economics, infantry

Public Key

npub1n8pdnhkukhs4xa0a74u9zkhqfcw39h48xcte4gkp8d8c4s2rx45qua72hl

NIP-57 Address

toddmmiller@strike.me

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsfnskemmwttc2nwh7l27z3ttsyu8gjm6nnv9u65tqnknu2c9pn26qhekmg9

Author Public Key

npub1n8pdnhkukhs4xa0a74u9zkhqfcw39h48xcte4gkp8d8c4s2rx45qua72hl

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Last Notes

2024-06-15 23:51:58

This is worth restating. #note1qc4…gc88

2024-06-13 22:43:07

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There’s a hefty fuckin’ fee.

2024-06-10 00:02:21

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“Far-right Bitcoin macro analyst Lyn Alden says far-right doesn’t exist.”

2024-06-09 15:39:21

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The “ptsd damaged goods” narrative is largely pushed by cultural institutions. It’s a form of nihilism. I would counter by saying that time in the military builds people much more capable of dealing with reality, but they have to reject modern narrative applied to them.

2024-06-08 19:38:28

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Dudes life was destroyed before he ever joined the Corps.

2024-05-31 16:31:26

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100 years of darkness.

2024-05-27 15:42:14

@npub15dq…lm5m makes a very good point. #note1lzt…5qag

2024-05-26 08:30:20

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It’s about looking dowsed, not back.

2024-05-24 20:58:41

Bitcoin is it. Deal with it.

2024-05-22 20:22:30

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Great article!

2024-05-20 04:06:46

See this. #note13xs…lwhk

2024-05-15 12:23:27

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None of the people pushing for changes, that I’ve seen, have adequately explained why systems like Liquid, Lightning, or even something like Stacks are incapable of scaling usage and permitting more smart contracts.

2024-05-14 18:17:55

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They already go after gun manufacturers like this, so why not?

2024-05-13 02:13:29

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It is not necessary for everyone to own a piece of the hard money to benefit from its effect. Too many people are missing this fact.

2024-05-13 01:36:45

SoV has always been the most critical and must be defended. MoE at the settlement layer is more than adequate. UoA will take hold based on SoV. #note1agk…e3q8

2024-05-10 21:49:51

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He still trashes Swan and is convinced there is something nefarious going on.

2024-05-09 10:51:23

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He seems more into ideology and playing freedom fighter.

2024-05-01 03:31:11

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This is hardly law and order.

2024-04-28 22:41:28

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@npub1sg6…f63m this is the appropriate meme for this cycle. The masses are pissed, the political machine will inevitably ruin us (further) no matter who is in office. Populism and distrust in legacy institutions is still emergent. These sentiment will grab hold and as ngu this cycle, a massive shift COULD begin.

2024-04-22 23:37:29

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Carrier pigeons

2024-04-20 05:37:09

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Why write everything onto Bitcoin? What about something like Stacks?

2024-04-18 18:53:10

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Just caught your interview on YouTube and will be watching the IREM webinar soon. I’m a CPM candidate working on my management plan now. I recently got one owner entity to add BTC to its balance sheet, adopting the MicroStrategy approach. My reasoning is that the macro environment is going to cause CRE valuations to decline since cap rates are going to elevate with interest rates, and there is no way rents can reasonably and justifiably keep pace. Basically I’m trying to transfer the monetary premium from CRE to a proper store of value. Over time people will stop looking at real estate as an investment in and of itself (treating it like a financial instrument) and instead will focus on the business of selling space, and the physical structure will be a fixed capital asset on the balance sheet. This brings the business in line with microeconomics, where a production function consists of land+capital+labor.
Glad to see another IREM member is on the bitcoin train.

2024-04-12 23:31:55

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More notoriety?

2024-04-12 17:47:16

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Tinkerers need to keep at it and integrate mining into various home appliances. I like the space heaters and hot water tanks. When I eventually buy a home I plan to incorporate stuff like that. Still have to factor in energy prices, which may be the biggest factor. Eliminate the current crop of lunatic politicians and allow ourselves to produce cheap energy and it may become easier for normal people to mine a little. Corporate entities actually could help distribute mining as well. I have a dream where I’m running an energy company and right next to my nuclear power plant is a massive mining facility, and then I have an incentive program whereby my electric customers can run miners at home and contribute to the pool and get rebates.

2024-04-12 17:38:36

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Or any charity for that matter. Could probably be a boon for local communities.

2024-04-12 17:37:38

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All excess revenue, after payroll and capital reinvestment, would be distributed to devs.

2024-04-12 17:36:29

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I am serious though, a non-profit mining company could actually be a thing. Perhaps by operating pools with the social benefit of securing Bitcoin.

2024-04-12 17:34:54

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Why doesn’t everyone grow all of their own food, raise their own beef, do their own taxes, make their own electricity, etc. I’m not saying I entirely disagree, but mining require technical competency and we would not be achieving the hash rate we have today if it was just plebs running it on a spare laptop. Then comes the profit motive. Why not get a bunch of people together and buy more miners, and you’re right back to forming a company.

2024-04-12 17:10:19

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So start a non-profit mining company.

2024-04-12 15:42:23

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Ok, cool.

2024-04-12 15:24:35

@npub1v5k…8rd9 I also strongly recommend reading A Timeless Way of Building by Christopher Alexander. It’s a blueprint for how developers will need to think about design and building in a bitcoin standard.

2024-04-12 15:07:16

@npub1v5k…8rd9 excellent interview with On Ramp! I had a meeting with my client yesterday and we were discussing similar topics of how to transition traditional real estate investors into a BTC real estate development and operations mod versus the old investment model. I’m going to show this video to a friend and see if we can test it out on a small duplex development he is planning.

2024-04-12 12:12:23

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In the long run there will be a radical change. In the short run it doesn’t make sense to try to upend the whole system all at once, it makes you a target. Developing BTC as property and store of value will have profound effects over a couple decades will likely make medium of exchange come about in more natural way. As for dealing with known, legitimate issues of maintaining the network, that can be achieved by focusing on those issues and supporting initiatives and devs working on them. While it’s true we can throw money at anyone and everyone that is working in the open source network because in the end it’s up to the nodes to decide, that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea and that it will lead to good outcomes. Unfettered “freedom” is not realistic. A large swath of bitcoiners have just such an unconstrained vision of reality.

2024-04-12 05:15:20

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Odell has to be the center of attention. He knows what’s best for bitcoin. Fundamentally, he’s become an ideologue. Saylor has a rational and realistic position and that threatens Odell’s idealistic utopian vision of perfect privacy or transparency or beating the “suits.” Whatever. He wants radical change when that not how reality works. He has more in common with Bolsheviks than he realizes.

2024-04-12 04:18:50

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Store of value is the whole point. You won’t get anywhere if it isn’t that.

2024-04-11 15:25:41

The “Bitcoin community” needs to take its own advice and stay humble.

2024-04-11 15:24:59

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I don’t know anything about Wood but watching 3 years of Saylor interviews leads me to a different conclusion.

2024-04-10 17:25:09

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Odell is self-promoting.

2024-04-10 15:14:27

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Still don’t see why it’s a big deal. Odell just likes starting shit so he feels important.

2024-04-10 15:11:21

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I thought he was humble.

2024-04-10 15:10:34

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And they keep renewing.

2024-04-09 18:14:04

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MSTR is an operating company that can leverage and access capital markets in ways an etf can’t. With his pivot to transforming the company into BTC development, I could certainly see him crushing his competition in that regard.
Really, this all comes across as gossip and innuendo peddling. So gay.

2024-04-09 18:11:42

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Crush his competition?

2024-04-09 17:39:25

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I see. So Odell makes baseless assertions to rile people up? And then claims he doesn’t want to be an influencer? What’s his deal anyway? Why does he carry any weight at all? He’s been around a minute but he comes across like a tool. Does he have technical skills? Business skills? Or was he just lucky?

2024-04-09 17:26:50

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What’s BT?

2024-04-09 17:25:47

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Odell did the same thing calling out Swan. The freedom fighter schtick reeks of undergrad dorm vibes.

2024-04-09 17:18:49

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Was there an actual quote of Saylor or is it just Matt playing freedom fighter?

2024-04-09 16:58:24

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https://image.nostr.build/d38d1dc141163f7ca4df78f7a8451baed0e393d31a32a25df70601f7c090e334.jpg

2024-04-09 16:39:56

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Michael Saylor, Chairman and CEO of MicroStrategy, adds, “Bitcoin is the most important innovation since the advent of the internet, and it is our responsibility to invest not only in the asset, but also in the underlying infrastructure that is maintained and improved by open-source developers and nonprofit institutions like MIT’s DCI.”
Source: https://dci.mit.edu/bitcoin-security-initiative

2024-04-09 05:40:37

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Of course you don’t.

2024-04-08 23:57:57

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Kind of like how swan HAD to be taking shady money to make 2023 revenue numbers?

2024-04-08 03:53:43

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Is there an English version? Want to start preparing to homeschool my new daughter.

2024-04-01 01:44:23

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I don’t think there is a right to privacy as reality is relational.

2024-03-29 17:35:13

Great work @npub1v5k…8rd9! Check out his paper, it’s brought together several related topics and should be a starting point for even more research. Some topics I’ve been kicking around in my head:
- the Saylor Strategy as a mechanism for converting real estate value to Bitcoin; and
- transitioning real estate investor focus from the physical structure (as a financial instrument in itself) to the operation of business that produces and sells space.

2024-03-26 20:23:28

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DMX

2024-03-24 00:31:25

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Are you familiar with the work of Christopher Alexander on design theory in architecture and urban planning? I suspect that his theory will be able to gain traction as bitcoin ascends. Appreciated your talk on new urbanism under bitcoin.

2024-03-22 16:33:51

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Compassion is empathy and reason together. Pure empathy is dangerous.

2024-03-20 20:57:12

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That’s unfortunate. I’ve noticed I’ve been less interested it’s articles lately. Hopefully the magazine gets back on track.

2024-03-20 19:29:50

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That guy can’t even manage his diet, why does he manage the BIS?

2024-03-20 15:19:20

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Yeah it happened earlier than that really, before 2020.

2024-03-17 19:09:04

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Treat commercial real estate for what it is, a business, not a financial instrument in itself. Buy with little leverage, stabilize, refi and then use the proceeds to buy BTC. As long as you are operating a business that is profitably selling space you’ll have a perpetual BTC buying machine. Basically you can replicate the Saylor strategy.

2024-03-17 19:04:28

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But with as little leverage as possible and then refi and turn the equity into bitcoin. As long as you operate the property profitably you can continually buy. Essentially turn it into a perpetual BTC buying machine.

2024-03-07 23:38:38

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It does! I just modeled out a simple 6-plex purchase. One model was a traditional deal with 70% LTV, the second was an all cash buy with a loan taken out immediately after purchase, 2/3 of the proceeds to establish a Bitcoin treasury and the rest to use as working capital for upgrades. After stabilizing rents I’d use some of the BTC to pay off the loan. And I assumed an extremely conservative 10% CAGR for the BTC growth. The IRR and cash on cash return were both about 2% higher in the bitcoin version.

2024-03-07 21:30:09

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I just completed a large purchase of bitcoin that is now on the balance sheet of a property I manage. I’m slowly convincing the owners to transform their equity into bitcoin. The hedge angle is a useful intro until others begin to think in terms of bitcoin.

2024-03-05 21:55:52

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Satan candle

2024-03-05 02:09:17

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Is Tidal putting BTC on its balance sheet?

2024-02-25 15:58:14

YoY sat growth represents the enterprise value in business.

2024-02-24 21:55:24

For instance, a CRE management company could accept payment of rent in bitcoins and use those to provide liquidity to Lighting. The company’s rate of return if all sats were in a node would become effectively its prime rate, so its goal would be YoY sats growth above that.

2024-02-24 21:14:22

Building on Bitcoin isn’t just the next layer 2 solution or wallet, it is also building households and businesses around Bitcoin. How can current businesses make a case to traditional customers why using bitcoin on the balance sheet makes sense? It’s the universal hedge so start there.

2024-02-22 16:55:36

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I see what you mean, that a bitcoin is fundamentally part of the Bitcoin network irrespective of laws. For human purposes though, shouldn’t we discuss it in terms of property and ownership? For society to adopt it we need it to fit into language.

2024-02-22 16:14:25

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I’m looking at it through a legal lens using the entitlement structure model outline by Madeline Morris in her 1993 Cornell Law Review article. People relate to objects (I’m calling a bitcoin an object even though it’s digital) through entitlements. Entitlements are protected by rules, and in this case I am advocating for using a pure property rule to evaluate bitcoin. A pure property rule means the “owner” has the right to monetary compensation for the object, the right to in-kind use and enjoyment, the right to initiate a transaction, and the right to veto a transaction. This is all with respect to another person. So in this sense I see it as being owned by the key holder. Possession is a big part of that, obviously. Perhaps it’s the case that that the keys are the physical instantiation of the bitcoin, but I am not sure we can sever the link between the keys and the coins and say we own one and merry possess the other.
I wish i was back in law school so I’d have time to write a paper on this! I also wrote a law school paper on blockchain and maintaining records of title ownership to land. But a property analysis of bitcoin is way more interesting.

2024-02-21 19:46:46

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I look at more as I possess the keys and own the bitcoins. Like a house.

2024-02-21 18:01:19

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These new features will necessarily require oracles to work.

2024-02-21 17:24:24

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In other words, less Bitcoin, more bitcoin.

2024-02-21 17:16:48

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I still maintain that if you possess it then you actually are fulfilling a component of a property rule entitlement. Bitcoiners ought to fight to keep our entitlement to bitcoins purely within the scope of a property rule, because everything thing outside that is a liability rule, and then we are stuck with liability money.

2024-02-21 03:21:43

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So basically they are trying to create the equivalent of CCRs that would be found in a deed to land. Wouldn’t this inevitably lead to a necessity for oracles? Based on this, I’m in the leave it alone camp.

2024-02-20 01:47:44

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So?

2024-02-19 23:23:52

I’m getting the sense that “layer-2 ecosystems” will be the ICOs of this Bitcoin cycle.

2024-02-17 07:10:44

Given the amount of laws regulating space in commercial buildings, it could likely be argued that when leasing such space, it is a market for a public good and thus pricing data should be regulated akin to stock markets. States should change antiquated laws regulating brokers and agent and begin regulating the price discovery system.

2024-02-15 17:51:49

While a student in law school and as a practitioner thereafter, I noticed that over the 20th century, property rights were slowly eroding through the rise of liability rules used in law. I wonder if there is a philosophical link between the shifting of protection of legal interests from property rules to liability rules and the rise of liability-money.

2024-02-14 02:32:06

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An option to receive fee updates once a day rather than every block.

2024-02-13 17:21:39

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If we compare resiliency across all possible SoVs, bitcoin wins. Therefore, it’s better.

2024-02-12 18:56:49

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Keep me posted. I’m (slowly) starting to work on related issues so I can better pitch a bitcoin strategy to my owners. Right now i think I’m going to focus on the four risk factors I mentioned in my earlier post.
I’m also thinking about how to perform financial calculations in terms of sats. Like, if I invest X sats into dollars to undertake some capital project at a property, and I get Y cash flows that I convert back to sats, what’s my NPV, IRR, etc. I think this would require defining your conversion rate for the analysis period. I’d probably just use a forward projection of the 200 week moving average based on a simple linear regression.

2024-02-12 16:13:20

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Perhaps a comparison between pre-1971 prices and post, factoring in m2 growth, relative to real wages.

2024-02-11 14:45:45

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I need to square away my Alby wallet.

2024-02-11 03:07:24

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Can you provide your working definition of sats flow, please?

2024-02-07 18:02:48

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That is a retarded quote

2024-02-05 16:22:22

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It looks like it’s just a novel corporate debt note that trades as a token, not a typical pump and dump token.

2024-02-05 14:05:01

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Their asic note is a shitcoin mining token?

2024-02-04 17:18:18

There are roughly 11 types of risk in commercial #realestate and putting bitcoin on the balance sheet helps mitigate 4 of them.
Macro risk: holding an asset that consistently increases its purchasing power can help weather economic downturns.
Interest rate risk: when rates go up, cash flow valuations go down; BTC has shown that it can rebound quickly from interest rate shock and over time it will further decouple from rates as it becomes seen as risk-off.
Inflation risk: consistent purchasing power growth abates the old concept of constantly escalating rent to keep up with inflation, meaning more price stability and better occupancy rates.
Liquidity risk: buildings are illiquid, so having BTC on the balance sheet allows the operator to quickly deploy capital without having to market a property for 6-12+ months.
Thanks to @npub1v5k…8rd9 and @npub1s5y…6q7z for getting this conversation started.

2024-02-04 17:07:40

This is why #realestate investing needs to be reframed. One does not invest in a physical structure as if it itself is a financial instrument, the investment is in the going concern that is operating that building in an attempt to profitably sell space. By putting BTC on the balance sheet, the operators can de-financialize the building and treat it as a piece of machinery. #note1j46…kyft

2024-02-03 21:03:31

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Thanks!

2024-02-03 05:46:32

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It reminds of startup culture in Seattle circa 2017.

2024-02-01 22:50:41

Latest WBD should have been 3 hours long, at least. @npub14mc…frlx @npub1s5y…6q7z

2024-01-22 21:57:29

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And your serious because you like to shit talk? Go smoke more of what you’re selling.

2024-01-22 19:59:54

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He’s not a serious individual.