Dr. Robert Rohde

Lead Scientist Berkeley Earth. Physics PhD, data nerd, and cancer survivor. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, and air quality issues.

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npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k

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RARohde_at_fediscience.org@mostr.pub

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nprofile1qqsd6dpcp2ycvvu6gewulw0a3ukjkcdd89t30zk7eghfpp8gj3j6yggpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43qf4e9r2

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relay.mostr.pub

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npub1m56rsz5fscee53jae7ulmred9ds66w2hz79daj3wjzzw39r95gssmlsz0k

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Last Notes

2024-09-20 13:07:10

An important — but also surprising — study reports new climate estimates over the last 500 million years.
It estimates Earth's mean temperature has swung between ~10 °C and ~35 °C (~50 °F and ~95 °F), a much larger range than previously believed.
#climate #Phanerozoic #DeepTime #CarbonDioxide
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk3705
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/113/170/024/666/559/821/original/259135327c195e5d.jpg

2024-07-23 12:25:26

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@npub1us5…rsy0
30-year LOESS smooth.

2024-07-21 11:10:18

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For more information on weather conditions in June 2024 and the associated climate context, please review our monthly temperature update.
https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2024-temperature-update/
9/9
#climate #climatechange #temperature #globalwarming

2024-07-21 11:00:08

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Official forecasts now expect a weak to moderate La Niña event will develop soon.
This will likely soon end the streak of record warmth and make the latter part of 2024 slightly cooler than the same months in 2023.
6/
#elnino #LaNina #climate
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/824/128/204/252/374/original/25ea0bdb5d5c9483.png

2024-07-21 10:59:04

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The El Niño event that has helped fuel record warmth during the last 12 months has now ended, and ocean temperatures have gradually cooled since the start of the year.
5/
#globalwarming #clinatechange #elnino
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/824/123/409/594/380/original/73651e7b6de927ff.jpg

2024-07-21 10:57:49

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Anomalous warmth was widespread in June, including records for both the land and ocean average, and continent-average June records for Africa, Asia, and South America.
4/
#globalwarming #clmatechange
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/824/119/607/374/182/original/84575da0e1335aa0.png

2024-07-21 10:54:09

June 2024 Temperature Update from Berkeley Earth
Warmest June since records began in 1850
13th consecutive record warm month, 12th at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above preindustrial
El Niño ends, La Niña & modest cooling expected soon
2024 likely to become the warmest year
https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2024-temperature-update/
🧵
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/824/104/055/440/198/original/e6e1921b22946652.png

2024-05-10 11:26:39

Fun little map of the weather stations (both active and historical) that are used as input to Berkeley Earth's land surface temperature analysis.
#Weather #Temperature
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/416/546/210/668/389/original/3e307b278d033b63.png

2024-04-19 15:23:35

The 12-month moving average of global mean temperatures has now moved slightly above 1.6 °C (2.9 °F).
#ClimateChange #globalwarming #temperature #climate
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/298/568/432/007/100/original/2a521aa3c0b54488.png

2024-03-20 12:34:02

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For more information on temperature conditions in February of 2024, please refer to our monthly temperature update.
https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2024-temperature-update/
8/8
#Climate #GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Temperature #ElNino #LaNina #Atlantic #Ocean

2024-03-20 12:32:57

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The start of 2024 has been very warm.
The rest of 2024 is expected to cool somewhat, but 2024 is still forecast to be the warmest or second warmest year directly measured.
Chance of record annual warmth in 2024 is now estimated at 62%, essentially unchanged from January.
7/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/027/466/306/392/original/b8669e02cf1f0fff.png

2024-03-20 12:32:48

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The start of 2024 has been very warm.
The rest of 2024 is expected to cool somewhat, but 2024 is still forecast to be the warmest or second warmest year directly measured.
Chance of record annual warmth in 2024 is now estimated at 62%, essentially unchanged from January.
8/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/027/466/306/392/original/b8669e02cf1f0fff.png

2024-03-20 12:31:37

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The combination of El Niño in the Pacific, extraordinary warmth in the Atlantic, and man-made global warming has led global ocean average temperatures to set a new daily temperature record every day for the last year.
Source: NOAA OISST via Climate Reanalyzer: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
6/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #ElNino #Climate #Temperature #Ocean
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/020/968/097/613/original/726438fd54483d88.png

2024-03-20 12:29:57

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A strong El Niño continued in February 2024, but it has begun to weaken and is expected to dissipate by mid-2024, possibly followed by a return of La Niña late in 2024.
This El Niño, which began in June 2023, has played a large role in recent record global temperatures.
5/
#Climate #ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #ElNino #Temperature #LaNina
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/015/357/911/379/original/41ca6d1bb6599bb7.png

2024-03-20 12:28:15

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The Atlantic Ocean set a record monthly-average for February by a very large margin.
The extraordinary warmth in the Atlantic, which began in the middle of 2023, has contributed significantly to the ongoing monthly global records.
4/
#ClimateChange #Climate #Temperature #Atlantic #GlobalWarming
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/008/104/684/076/original/05b61540179e79c0.png

2024-03-20 12:27:42

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The Atlantic Ocean set a record monthly-average for February by a very large margin.
The extraordinary warmth in the Atlantic, which began in the middle of 2023, has contributed significantly to the ongoing monthly global records.
5/
#ClimateChange #Climate #Temperature #Atlantic #GlobalWarming
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/008/104/684/076/original/05b61540179e79c0.png

2024-03-20 12:26:31

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Warmth was widespread in February 2024, with particularly large anomalies in North America, Europe, and the Arctic.
Record monthly-average warmth in February 2024 was widespread in the Atlantic, parts of South America, Africa, the Indian Ocean, and a bit of Central North America and Eastern Europe.
Unusual cold affected a part of Antarctica.
3/
#ClimateChange #Climate #Temperature #GlobalWarming
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/004/825/750/368/original/3e1e323f186c9f7b.png
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/128/005/181/808/531/original/38d5a0a9561e1739.png

2024-03-20 12:25:08

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The global mean temperature in February 2024 was 1.76 ± 0.09 °C (3.17 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average.
This is the third largest monthly anomaly ever observed. However, it was somewhat cooler than in September of 2023.
2/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/127/998/408/948/511/original/fea32890ff8c667e.png

2024-03-20 12:24:04

February 2024 Temperature Update
Warmest February since measurements began in 1850.
Warmest ocean average, 3rd warmest land average
9th consecutive record warm month
El Niño continues, but is now weakening. Likely to end mid-2024.
2024 is likely to become the warmest or 2nd warmest year.
https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2024-temperature-update/
🧵
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #ElNino
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/127/984/330/042/314/original/d4d2e4f5d0464822.png

2024-03-06 15:59:28

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Most volcanic eruptions that are large enough to reach the stratosphere lead to a brief period bit of global cooling due to the impact of sulfur aerosols.
However, Hunga Tonga was unusual in that it was rich in water vapor (a powerful greenhouse gas) and low in sulfur, leading to the unusual prediction that it could cause a slight global warming.
#HungaTonga

2024-03-06 15:54:29

Two years later, the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still in no rush to dissipate.
This excess water vapor likely adds a small amount to global warming (e.g. ~0.05 °C or less), with perhaps somewhat larger regional perturbations.
#Volcano #Eruption #WaterVapor #HungaTonga
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/049/540/193/518/835/original/f07962c25c913392.png

2024-02-28 12:00:36

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To read more about global and regional temperature conditions in January 2024, please visit our monthly temperature report:
https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2024-temperature-update/
7/7
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #ElNino

2024-02-28 11:55:21

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January 2024 was the 8th consecutive record warm monthly average, and the 7th consecutive month averaging more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 average.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature
2/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/112/008/968/781/841/534/original/71eb626b7101cc95.png

2024-01-11 08:58:17

Berkeley Earth's Annual Climate Report was distributed to media late yesterday.
It will go public tomorrow.
If you are a journalist and still want an early copy, please email media@berkeleyearth.org
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Weather

2024-01-05 15:10:56

Berkeley Earth's Annual Temperature Report is expected to appear on January 12th.
Embargoed copies will be available to journalists a couple days beforehand.
If any journalists would like to be added to our distribution list, please email media@berkeleyearth.org.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming

2024-01-05 15:10:37

2024-01-04 10:37:21

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Variations in solar activity are an important and well-studied source of natural climate variability, contributing to a variety of past climate fluctuations.
However, recent changes are too small (and in the wrong direction) to explain recent global warming.
#Sunspots #SolarCycle
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/697/239/382/755/021/original/d16b6a451c85d72d.png

2024-01-04 10:36:33

Ongoing solar cycle number 25 is expected to peak in late 2024 or early 2025.
It has increased in activity relative to the very weak previous cycle, but thus far remains less active than the 20th century average.
#Sunspots #SolarCycle
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/697/236/794/398/224/original/96d21e85a9432f44.png

2023-12-31 11:02:59

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@npub197q…2t4z
The units are correct. As written on the chart, it is the integrated total from 20 to 80 km altitude, which provides the third dimension.

2023-12-30 16:35:07

In case anyone is wondering, it has dissipated a bit, but most of the water vapor injected into the upper atmosphere by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption is still there.
Not the most important factor, but possibly a small contributing factor to the weird weather in 2023.
#Volcano #HungaTonga #watervapor #atmosphere
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/670/320/830/668/564/original/d742c3c1ae34f90f.png

2023-12-21 19:08:07

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For more information on temperature patterns in November 2023, please refer to our monthly temperature report.
https://berkeleyearth.org/november-2023-temperature-update/
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
11/11

2023-12-21 19:07:36

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Climate negotiators often talk about limiting warming to no more than 1.5 °C above preindustrial.
They are referring to long-term averages (not single months or years), but we are already getting a taste of what a world above 1.5 °C looks like.
Little time remains to act.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
10/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/973/542/231/133/original/34628673f45b66b9.png

2023-12-21 19:06:49

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Note: Different monitoring groups broadly give similar results, but differences in methodology affect uncertainties in the preindustrial baseline.
It is very likely that Berkeley Earth slightly exceeds 1.5 °C in 2023 while some other groups may have 2023 a bit below 1.5 °C.
9/

2023-12-21 19:06:29

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With 11 months completed, 2023 is virtually certain to set a new annual average temperature record.
In the Berkeley Earth analysis, it is also very likely to exceed 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 baseline.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
8/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/970/380/734/678/original/03755059abd70b2a.png

2023-12-21 19:05:44

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Man-made global warming largely sets the long-term trend, but abrupt recent warming is partly due to natural variability, including the transition to a strong El Niño.
Combined with other natural and man-made factors, this has made 2023 into a record-breaking year.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature #ElNino
7/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/966/690/515/528/original/00c6059d4036684c.png

2023-12-21 19:04:44

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Average temperatures over the last three months set a new September-November record high for 19% of the Earth's surface, including 32% of the land surface.
The Atlantic, South America, North Africa, Middle East, and Asia were especially affected.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
6/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/962/573/948/661/original/212e783c47a8c398.png

2023-12-21 19:03:52

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Looked at seasonally, the last three months have not only been the warmest September to November on record, but they are also the largest deviation from trend in at least 100 years.
A truly abrupt spike in global temperatures.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
5/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/958/131/168/253/original/d5e23585bdf96156.png

2023-12-21 19:02:03

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In November 2023, monthly temperature averages set new record highs in 12% of the Earth's surface, including large parts of South America, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean.
Near record cold occurred in Eastern Antarctica.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature #Records
4/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/951/466/879/189/original/46f034e4e970ed3e.png

2023-12-21 19:01:05

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November 2023 saw broad warmth across most to the world, but was particularly notable in the Pacific, Central Asia, Northern Canada, North Africa, and South America.
Unusually cold conditions occurred in Northern Europe and Eastern Antarctica.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
3/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/948/312/371/675/original/7385de4a0f549344.png

2023-12-21 19:00:20

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Temperatures during last six months have run well above the previous records for this time of year.
At 1.77 ± 0.12 °C (3.18 ± 0.22 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, November 2023 was by far the warmest November and the 2nd largest anomaly on record (behind September 2023).
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
2/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/944/267/240/588/original/4b8096bd5fffc1be.png

2023-12-21 18:58:53

Berkeley Earth November Temperature Update
The warmest November since measurements began in 1850, with records for both land and ocean individually.
Essentially certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year, and very likely to exceed 1.5 °C in our dataset.
#ClimateChange #Climate #GlobalWarming #Temperature
https://berkeleyearth.org/november-2023-temperature-update/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/619/905/218/738/417/original/6e364c3cf49a207f.png

2023-10-24 10:54:09

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@npub1n5k…rquc
US acreage burned is actually on a 20 year low, mostly due to favorable weather conditions (i.e. less dry in the West).
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/289/620/024/567/561/original/c94ec5a6679b8ca5.png

2023-10-23 14:27:20

This year's record-setting Canadian fires burned >3 times as much carbon as all of Canada's annual fossil fuel use.
Canadian fossil fuel emissions (2021): 545 MtCO₂
Canadian wildfire emissions (typical year): 290 MtCO₂
Canadian wildfire in 2023 (CAMS estimate): 1,740 MtCO₂
#Canada #CanadaFires #Wildfires #CarbonDioxide #Carbon

2023-10-23 14:21:01

The open water passage through the Arctic Ocean has closed again till next year.
This year the passage was open longer than in 2021 or 2022, but still far shorter than the record set in 2020.
Summer open water passages through the Arctic Ocean were uncommon until about 2005 but have become an annual occurrence in recent years.
#Arctic #SeaIce #ClimateChange #ArcticOcean
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/284/766/160/891/548/original/86581f014ea6c985.png
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/284/767/980/885/068/original/35fe6efe0f0b2525.png

2023-10-12 09:34:42

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@npub1la4…y3aj
The vertical bars are 95% confidence intervals on our estimate of the global average at the time. This takes into account things like measurement uncertainty and gaps in spatial coverage.

2023-10-11 22:53:19

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@npub1n5k…rquc
Yes, it may. It is frequently the case that the second year of an El Niño is hotter than the first.
That said, there are many aspects of this year that are already pretty unusual, so perhaps it ends up bucking the trend.

2023-10-11 22:46:28

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For additional discussion and analysis related to the record-shattering temperatures in September, please refer to the Berkeley Earth temperature update.
https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather #ElNino
12/12

2023-10-11 22:46:01

2023-10-11 22:45:29

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A single year above 1.5 °C would not automatically mean the that the IPCC's target to limit warming to 1.5 °C has failed, as those targets are based on long-term averages.
However, it would highlight the very limited time remaining.
In addition, we note that different analysis groups have slightly different estimates of long-term trends.
It is possible, and in this case likely, that 1 or 2 may have final values for 2023 that slightly exceed 1.5 °C while others are slightly below 1.5 °C.
11/

2023-10-11 22:44:53

2023-10-11 22:43:31

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Given the warmth of recent months, and the current El Niño, 2023 is now virtually certain (>99% likelihood) to become the warmest year ever directly measured.
In addition, 2023 is now very likely (90% chance) to finish at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above our 1850-1900 baseline.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather #ElNino
10/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/797/498/302/012/original/c4750efef4b34544.png

2023-10-11 22:42:11

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The abrupt warming in September – due primarily to Antarctica – came on top of already extraordinary warmth in August.
The Antarctic changes might simply reflect natural polar variability but it added to a system already greatly warmed by man-made and natural causes.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather #Antarctica #HungaTonga #ElNino
9/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/791/807/603/347/original/e9108722b602332d.png

2023-10-11 22:40:48

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The strong warming in Antarctica this September could simply be a product of natural variability.
However, we note it was also coincident with a record low sea ice maximum and follows the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption. The interplay of such factors remains to be determined.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather #Antarctica #HungaTonga #SeaIce
8/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/787/104/336/181/original/ed168eee08a1183b.png

2023-10-11 22:38:55

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The sharp uptick in temperatures since August is mostly due to warming in polar regions, especially Antartica.
This contrasts to the warming earlier in 2023, which was broadly associated with the El Niño transition and other changes in the tropics and mid-latitudes.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather #Antarctica #ElNino
7/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/781/095/154/161/original/bc6e1cf454c499f5.png

2023-10-11 22:37:47

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15.7% of the Earth's surface experienced their locally warmest September average, including 21.7% of land areas.
We estimate that 77 countries, mostly in Europe and the tropics, set new national monthly-average records for September.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather
6/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/775/911/575/995/original/3efa6d6268e3ccf9.png

2023-10-11 22:36:47

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Both land and ocean individually set temperature records for September, with a well-developed El Niño, and almost no regions of relative cooling.
The warmth around Antarctica is especially sharp and contributes heavily to the increase in global mean since August.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather
5/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/770/915/290/852/original/f000129116b90abe.png

2023-10-11 22:35:39

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Given the highly unlikely nature of this abrupt record, it suggests that models may not be fully representing recent climate changes.
This could be due to recent reductions in man-made aerosol emissions, the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano eruption, or other factors.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #CMIP6 #HungaTonga
4/

2023-10-11 22:34:29

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September breaking the monthly global temperature record by 0.50 °C (0.90 °F) is unprecedented and highly unlikely.
An examination of CMIP6 climate models used to simulate global warming would lead us to estimate the chance of this occurring at ~1 in 10,000.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #CMIP6 #Climate #Weather
3/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/762/255/506/084/original/605c716dce123364.png

2023-10-11 22:32:19

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The global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C (3.28 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, continuing the run of extraordinary records.
This is highest anomaly ever measured for any month, and 0.50 °C (0.90 °F) above the prior September record.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather
2/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/755/315/388/684/original/4f55fcb613f4d3b6.png

2023-10-11 22:30:57

September 2023 Temperature Update 🔥
Warmest September & largest anomaly ever measured, shattering previous September record.
Warming since August concentrated in polar regions.
Near certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year.
Likely 2023 exceeds 1.5 °C.
https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Climate #Temperature #Weather
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/218/747/475/473/170/original/f7e4737a985a7beb.png

2023-09-25 12:13:24

The Earth right now is far warmer than the previously measured record for this time of year.
Even with a growing El Niño, the pace and size of the uptick that we've seen this year is pretty shocking.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Temperature #Climate
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/125/722/356/319/606/original/a6ced45b50c5c3e7.png

2023-09-16 10:37:37

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Many other parts of South and Central America were also setting new record highs during recent months, influenced by both the developing El Niño in the Pacific and the extreme warmth in the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic.
https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/
#ElNino #Weather #Climate #ClimateChange
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/074/383/794/712/313/original/578c3b07709e1e6f.png

2023-09-16 10:35:33

This year's El Niño launched with incredible intensity on the coast of South America.
In adjacent Ecuador, the national average temperature for the month of August broke the previous record – set during the start of the extreme 1997/98 El Niño – by an enormous 1.4 °C (2.5 °F).
#ElNino #Weather
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/074/376/854/675/853/original/19e0b933a1822272.png

2023-09-14 18:01:46

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@npub1knz…c73p
Sea level rise is a tricky beast because the earth system models (ESMs) suggest that even relatively modest warmings trigger very prolonged gradual melting and have equilibrium times in the thousands of years.
This figure, from the last IPCC report, estimates ~10 m (~30 ft) of sea level rise evolving over 10,000 years if climate is warmed 2 °C (3.8 °F).
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/064/794/021/373/393/original/045aa0fefb0b34cf.jpg

2023-09-14 16:39:12

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@npub1kk5…e0ds
Land temperatures exhibit much larger seasonal swings than ocean temperatures.
The Northern hemisphere has far more land than the Southern, so Northern seasonality is larger than Southern, and thus the average of the two hemispheres ends up tracking Northern seasonality.

2023-09-14 12:34:51

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@npub19dl…hwzh
Yes, land temperatures exhibit much larger seasonal swings than ocean temperatures. And the Northern hemisphere has far more land than the Southern, so on the average the globe tracks Northern seasonality.

2023-09-14 09:20:50

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For more information on temperature patterns during August 2023, please see our monthly temperature report:
https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Climate #Temperature #ElNino
9/9

2023-09-14 09:19:52

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This current period of record warmth is driven by a combination of man-made & natural factors.
The long-term trend is driven primarily by man-made global warming due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
On top of this we also see short-term swings due to natural variability, including that associated with the recent transition from La Niña to El Niño.
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Temperature #Climate #ElNino
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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/742/192/631/120/original/ef7d2563eafece89.png

2023-09-14 09:15:16

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The recent extreme conditions have led to another upward revision to our forecast for 2023.
In addition to 2023 almost certainly becoming the warmest directly measured year, we now estimate roughly even odds that 2023 will be at least 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above the 1850-1900 baseline.
Potentially exceeding – at least temporarily – the Paris Agreement target of limiting long-term global warming to no more than 1.5 °C.
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #ParisAgreement #Temperature
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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/724/690/020/104/original/b542bc844eb94f8d.png

2023-09-14 09:10:06

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With the strengthening El Niño and June, July, and August all setting new monthly records by large margins, it has become nearly certain that the annual average for 2023 will set a new record high for the instrumental period (>99% likelihood).
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Temperature #ElNino
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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/715/818/706/900/original/038b4726bc75d468.png

2023-09-14 09:09:30

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With the strengthening El Niño and June, July, and August all setting new monthly records by large margins, it has become nearly certain that the annual average for 2023 will set a new record high for the instrumental period (>99% likelihood).
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Temperature #ElNino
7/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/715/818/706/900/original/038b4726bc75d468.png

2023-09-14 09:07:56

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El Niño has continued to strengthen, and is projected to continue well into 2024, which will continue to boost global average temperatures somewhat.
Models remain divided on whether to ultimately expect a moderate, strong, or very strong El Niño.
IRI chart: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
#ElNino
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2023-09-14 09:05:58

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During August, record warmth was particularly prominent in the tropics, as well parts of the Pacific and the North Atlantic.
13% of the Earth's surface was locally record warm in August, and 65 countries (mostly in the tropics) set new national-average records for August.
None of the Earth had a record cold monthly average in August (though a few parts of Antarctica were close).
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Temperature #Tropics #ElNino
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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/696/494/449/771/original/82f297a94d9c216b.png

2023-09-14 09:03:37

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Above average temperatures were widespread in August, with the exception of Antarctica, which saw quite cold conditions in part.
The El Niño, which began in June, continues to strengthen in the equatorial Pacific.
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #ElNino #Temperature
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https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/691/172/201/791/original/9db0bda3c3c4d041.png

2023-09-14 09:02:11

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Globally, August 2023 was record-shatteringly warm.
The global average was recorded as 1.68 ± 0.09 °C (3.02 ± 0.16 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 baseline.
This beats the previous record, from August 2016, by 0.31 °C (0.56 °F).
It also effectively ties February and March 2016 for the largest anomaly of any month on record.
2/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/682/539/312/027/original/8378cb0602e6b3c3.png

2023-09-14 08:59:57

Berkeley Earth's August 2023 Temperature Update
By far the warmest August since direct measurements began.
Warmest for both land & ocean.
Strengthening El Niño.
Nearly certain 2023 becomes the warmest year directly measured.
May see a +1.5 °C annual excess in 2023.
https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Climate #Temperature
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/111/062/672/580/140/606/original/2d26909bf765249c.png

2023-07-14 09:58:46

The North Atlantic just completely destroyed its June average temperature record, breaking the previous record by more than 0.4 °C (0.7 °F).
A stunningly sharp excess for such a large body of water.
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming #Temperature #Climate #Atlantic
https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2023-temperature-update/
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/110/711/843/695/649/264/original/f9df5582260ce47b.png

2023-06-28 12:22:32

Time for a bit of climate hope.
Solar power is the fastest growing energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
This graph shows how rapidly different technologies expanded after reaching their first exajoule of energy production (logarithmic scale).
Fossil fuels provide ~78% of energy use today, but if challenges can be overcome (e.g. storage), then rapidly growing renewables will soon play a greatly expanded role in the human energy system.
#solar #ClimateChange #FossilFuel
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/110/621/780/336/941/426/original/c8a96429ae30f4df.png

2023-06-21 10:17:47

June 21st is #ShowYourStripes Day.
It is an annual event where individuals, meteorologists, & organizations promote discussions about global warming by using
@npub175v…ea5p
iconic warming stripes.
Here is my animation showing the evolution of local stripes around the world.
https://showyourstripes.info/
#ClimateChange #GlobalWarming
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/110/581/678/886/206/928/original/a3f11ed5ecd38b68.mp4

2023-04-25 07:43:46

This is getting ridiculous.
OISST provides a real-time daily index of ocean surface temperature (60 S - 60 N). For the last month it has been continuously reading higher than in any previous year and still shows no sign of settling.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
#[0] #[1] #[2] #[3] #[4] #[5]
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/110/258/327/476/623/907/original/6139ac66f05d86bf.jpg

2023-04-20 15:32:37

I'm not going to copy it here, but I want to note that I've written a #[0] thread with data discussing for how Twitter has changed for climate scientists.
Fewer active scientists, fewer tweets, fewer likes per tweet, fewer retweets per tweet, and less likely to go viral.
https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1649052257844072449
https://fediscience.org/system/media_attachments/files/110/231/858/646/460/400/original/7915ba9597b5df6c.png