BoomTown

scarcity requires trade-offs.

Public Key

npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

NIP-57 Address

noblegoose1@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst6l33qf3eul9rf8hj0c3pphmdqfjcuqv6y2kxtyuutcddenjahzqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqp2emhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgtmwwp6kyvfh0p6nxun5vd6nqen5w9mnqvmdwdmkzwrpxfhxw73ndeekwunnxp5rqam2wc685wf5xfchwangwquxvuenw9axxctyd3estt4f0g

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nos.lol

relay.nostr.band/npub17xu3rtcu0ftqw03mswa8a2ngz3nsgrs0h0wjv4z942qwvhp8fs3qzcadls

relay.damus.io

Author Public Key

npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

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Last Notes

2025-05-05 18:37:08

Coinbase is this cycle’s FTX

2025-05-05 15:49:48

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What have they been doing for the last 18+ months?

2025-05-05 14:38:13

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https://youtu.be/hWMnbJJpeZc

2025-05-04 02:49:17

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When bull market @npub1qny…95gx ? Class of ‘21 wants to know.

2025-05-04 01:03:20

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100%

2025-05-03 17:49:05

Where is the puhmp!?
#note17my…j573

2025-05-03 14:09:37

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That’s a simp take. All networks grow exponentially. Power law was the response to S2F … power law is for simps and spooks.

2025-05-03 13:57:04

Can we go back to worrying about NGU … ?
Im annoyed AF right now. 100+ days since the ATH and even that was kinda late and pathetic based on historical standards.
Exponential means exponential. Not linear. Not diminishing returns.

2025-05-02 02:41:08

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I would like more of a bump in purchasing power before I *really* start spending mine, though.

2025-04-27 15:26:27

We can’t hate the communists enough.
#note160j…03qq

2025-04-25 13:44:31

@npub1rtl…jtfs 😏
#note1xkt…55ez

2025-04-24 02:50:24

WTF will keep this bull run from fully manifesting in the next 3 months? … like full on, face melting upside price action. If we are winning then the class of 2021 needs to experience their windfall moment.

2025-04-23 01:48:54

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Fuck me.

2025-04-22 01:10:52

Again, this guy is good.
#note1py7…ldmh

2025-04-21 21:48:31

This guy is good.
#note1qzx…y80j

2025-04-18 03:13:11

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Sure but do it on a mineral / agricultural GDP basis … service economies are about to go belly up.

2025-04-14 22:10:16

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Higher (blow-off) top in 2021 … institutions driving price up more (higher low, etc.) … supercycles … etc.

2025-04-14 22:07:34

The influencer class was 100% wrong about the bitcoin market since spring 2021 yet they persist.

2025-04-14 20:20:21

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Rough go for them recently. Props to those still churning out hashrate.

2025-04-14 18:17:08

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Come on …

2025-04-14 17:35:46

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And maybe a government asset

2025-04-14 16:41:06

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I notice that the price action talk on podcasts has effectively stopped. All the bitcoin influencers / podcasters are going into their shells and putting their head in the sand. Hate that they’re ignoring the 800 lb gorilla in the room.

2025-04-14 16:39:24

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We’ve had more patience with less benefit than everyone who entered bitcoin before 2021.

2025-04-14 15:46:27

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1q29…9wj4

2025-04-14 15:45:40

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1f6v…jtlk

2025-04-14 15:44:15

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1hat…wa9z

2025-04-14 15:42:16

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Man, those of us who went all in starting in 2021 are getting boned on a relative basis. Sucks.

2025-04-07 07:37:23

The last, great shakeout for class of 2021 before Valhalla? 😅

2025-04-06 14:11:08

What did the bitcoin audit reveal? Or is it another public swing and miss by David Bailey?
@npub1qny…95gx @npub1guh…6hjy

2025-04-06 00:56:52

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In any 6102 scenario, bitcoin goes through the roof. There is no seizure and the fact that they tried to “outlaw” it would make markets appreciates it value more quickly.

2025-04-05 15:40:57

What did the Treasury audit of the bitcoin reveal? Was declared that today was the deadline to report holdings.

2025-04-04 12:47:12

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Yes. n00bs deserve huge kudos for holding through the last four years.

2025-04-03 01:31:04

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What is the y-axis?

2025-04-02 06:16:53

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I’d say that doesn’t make any sense.

2025-04-02 03:16:54

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$85k purchasing power 12-months after the halving did that. I’m not spending any of my stack right now. Carrying credit card debt.
Why spend when you have legit bitcoiners calling for $250k to $475k purchasing power by Halloween 2025?

2025-04-01 19:57:21

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https://tenor.com/view/michael-jordan-gif-21585853

2025-04-01 16:36:52

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Time, maybe.

2025-04-01 15:26:56

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I strongly disagree. If they make enough good business moves and have enough time, they can accumulate more capital via the investment of newly accumulated capital than the larger miner.
Especially if the larger miner is destroying capital value through inefficient allocation.

2025-04-01 15:13:49

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Compounding on 1 btc vs. 100 btc vs. 100,000 btc is always going to reward / punish the biggest capital allocation. That’s just math. Can’t be bitter that some people have more than us. I’d bet on barefoot mining ahead of Riot and/or Marathon and/or Hut8 … and the at home miner can outperform them all depending on their use case and source of energy.
There is no such thing as fair. Focus on return on capital. Allocation of capital is work. Mining is 100% proof of work … appreciate you are trying to be contrarian with a new take. I just 100% disagree with your qualm. It isn’t with bitcoin mining, it’s with the current distribution of capital.

2025-04-01 14:37:08

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That’s not true — scale can kill you in bitcoin mining. There are not many “pockets” of free energy that are 1 GW … someone who heats their home in Alaska might outcompete Riot on a profitability standpoint.
Capital grows. So starting with capital is better than not starting with capital. But that’s just a fact of private property, there will never be a “fair” allocation of capital that doesn’t benefit incumbents.
But bitcoin mining is as ruthlessly competitive of a business as there is. Negative returns on capital compound, too.

2025-04-01 13:24:11

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The first miner took more risk than the second miner. If the bitcoin price went down (or stagnates) and the first bitcoin miner’s PPA is or becomes uncompetitive then the second miner actually has the advantage.

2025-03-31 20:34:34

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Does it though? I doubt it. Want to prove me wrong? Show us the bitcoin addresses.

2025-03-29 02:59:29

When does hashrate drop? Lots of miners running at a loss?

2025-03-26 10:57:05

Class of 2021 is the hardest class. Longest bear market, no blow-off top, bear draw down below prior ATH, absolute shit 2025 bull market.
I’m saltier than everyone else because the data says I should be.
#note15pq…sq77

2025-03-21 10:12:59

This is more than M2 global liquidity blunting a bull market. This is the “then they fight you” stage, they’re doing it behind the scenes as to not draw attention to bitcoin the asset, and most bitcoiners seem oblivious or don’t care. Honey badgers?
#note12t0…7eha

2025-03-17 19:35:55

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https://tenor.com/view/rage-christian-bale-gif-20211156

2025-03-15 16:55:01

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Good question!

2025-03-15 04:03:57

(sigh.)
#note1vsp…7fyr

2025-03-11 13:36:49

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Bro, I have like 800 followers. For as much time as I spend on here, it would be nice to have a little more reach.
GFYaYFFMC

2025-02-25 19:00:42

Chat GPT says that upon a bitcoin SBR announcement, bitcoin is $200k+ overnight… #note1c60…t6qr

2025-02-22 13:58:20

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It reminds me of the time Odell told me I was a fucking idiot for telling him that he had to get off Twitter since Elon made blue checks free to accounts with reach…and he was intellectually inconsistent. He was off Twitter within a week.
You’re being nicer about it. I know the truth is inconvenient but you know I’m right. It is an intellectual inconsistency you’re living with - we all do it to a degree; I mean - shoot! - it is the way you and the rest of the Ten31 team get paid to be working in bitcoin.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t jealous. Bitcoin VC seems like it’d be an awesome gig. I wish I could have the best of both worlds like y’all do. Frfr
Fiat world lives on … I’m gonna stay humble and stack sats about it. Congrats on the VC gig…

2025-02-21 14:12:18

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Yes … and their investment in Ten31 and the Ten31 portfolio companies (and the management fees Ten31 charges) will under perform bitcoin.
Bitcoin destroys the VC fund model. VC funds are the centralization of capital with the intent to have a trusted group allocate that capital. Bitcoin will replace VC funds with private syndicates raising specific equity targets.
Look, I support Ten31 and what you’re trying to do … but let’s not pretend that it’s not going to clearly underperform Bitcoin. It’s a shitcoin for investors, but some whale Bitcoin investors might get behind the thesis that more Bitcoin companies will lead to faster and sticker widespread Bitcoin adoption and pump their Bitcoin bags. I don’t.
Stay humble and stack sats about it.

2025-02-18 19:23:08

Bro … give maxi class of 2021 some empathy … waiting for that first sweet windfall. #note1zrw…6kq5

2025-02-18 16:32:20

100% this …
Even in their success case, tech bros and finance bros aren’t ready for the utility type returns. And that’s IF the regulatory world can protect it like utility infrastructure.
If open source wins then it’ll be akin to the shale revolution. Lowest cost producer wins…lots of bankruptcies. #note1k90…x3ew

2025-02-18 12:39:19

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Slightly different bot … cycle low vs. halving tracker.

2025-02-18 08:34:03

It’s been a month since David Bailey advocated levered leverage. The price is down since that advice. #note1rhl…2guv

2025-02-17 17:23:06

Make it a bot!! #note1tp7…q4aq

2025-02-15 19:58:54

Looks at how the institutional traders are suppressing Bitcoin volatility. Think they can do this forever?

2025-02-15 19:42:57

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The power law model is a psyop to keep normies from becoming maxis. Very disappointing to see how much play it is getting this cycle.

2025-02-15 11:48:09

Well … $200k by Valentine’s Day turned out not to be a thing.

2025-02-14 23:10:36

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/14/jd-vance-stuns-munich-conference-with-blistering-attack-on-europes-leaders

2025-02-13 23:15:08

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Most people want an experience similar to what they have in their physical wallet and online bank account.
Bitcoin’s UX still sucks. Im not a complete idiot and I can keep track of all these different products providing different services. Which ones can I trust? Which ones are used where?
Just like in VC enabled Web3…there are far too many options and none of them make life “easier”

2025-02-13 12:55:26

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Because the pools of capital that will soon be allocating to bitcoin are much larger than the pools of capital that were allocating to the retail rips. Also, those pools of capital will not be trading, they will be holding (per mandates) for 5-10 years.
Also, the legitimization of the asset that comes from traditional institutions participating.
Finally, the absolute scarcity and Bitcoin hodlers inclination to hodl the majority of their stack, whatever the price.

2025-02-13 12:43:47

(Objectively) Worst. Bull. Run. Ever. #note1644…ma9m

2025-02-11 01:45:29

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Since when is a bitcoin bull market “measured” 😂

2025-02-11 01:42:48

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You’ve been pretty bearish about this bull cycle … I think you were like $150k maybe $200k on your last round of podcasts.
Is the lengthy consolidation and the macro overlay making you question that call? Getting more bullish that we can get to $450-$500k in 2025? Higher?

2025-02-10 16:12:49

@npub1guh…6hjy is so excited for Bretton Woods 2.0 … it’s gonna be fun to listen to him as it comes to pass.

2025-02-08 03:07:35

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The biggest risk isn’t that Coinbase is fractional reserving MSTR’s coins? 🥶

2025-02-06 15:10:32

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Isn’t OTC mostly miners? Or is there a place where we can find what types of coins are trading on OTC?

2025-02-06 14:58:11

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Why aren’t we down the ETF + MSTR bitcoins?
Exchanges should be down 1M BTC off the December 2023 level…

2025-02-01 23:16:54

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It’s measured in productive time. How many years labor? Or oz gold? Or certain type of house. But ultimately it is a measure of productivity stored in bitcoin.
(GDP + historical capital asset value) / 21M bitcoin

2025-02-01 19:52:36

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I think you’ve missed my point. I explicitly state NGU is measured as time stored per bitcoin. That metric is purchasing power and has nothing to do with dollars or any other fiat measure. It has to do with how much productivity is stored per bitcoin. That has to go up, forever AND - at this stage - it has to go up quite a lot to compensate for the risks taken.

2025-02-01 17:10:47

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Purchase by power of bitcoin still needs to increase over time. Time afforded per bitcoin is the right measure…and that measure will vary from person to person.
But NGU (time afforded/bitcoin) has to keep going up and still needs to go up exponentially at this level of adoption.
It might be easy for those who have already experienced the NGU windfall to discount the importance of NGU but I can assure you that for those of us yet to experience a bull market windfall, it is still incredibly important.

2025-01-31 14:09:49

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I understand that proof of reserves isn’t perfect. I understand that. 100%. And they’re right, it isn’t perfect.
However, give us proof of reserves to begin with … let’s see the bitcoin on the blockchain. MSTR should be able to point to ~500k bitcoins and say … those ones are the ones we bought…right there!
And then let the public disclosures start to report their leverage against their Bitcoin. Then maybe we start to demand that they line up the blockchain addresses to match their financing strategy. Maybe there are certain “accounts” or UTXOs disclosed as levered bitcoin or some other transparent solution.
This whole “proof of reserves isn’t perfect therefore we shouldn’t demand it.” is an incredibly bad take. and it is a take held by some of my favorite bitcoiner personalities.
They never would have gone for it if Saylor wasn’t out there being one of them on the podcast circuit. If it was a bank who was doing this … with no public face orchestrating it, no Saylor ramblings on only the top 5 bitcoin podcasts (with maybe a surprise appearance on a smaller one), every bitcoin podcaster would be berating the company to disclose. “Do not trust. Verify.” Used to mean something.
But no — They’re getting invited to parties. They’re getting invited to conferences where their entire trip is comped. Ego is creeping back in on them…

2025-01-27 20:05:31

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This is an incredibly bad take. One does not just generate 10% global oil supply from existing conventional oil & gas production sources. If 10% came off the market, it would take awhile to ramp up the Canadian oil sands and American shale oil to close the gap. Oil would get crippling expensive in the intermediary many, many months.

2025-01-27 15:28:07

There is no profit in AI …

2025-01-25 22:29:36

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Smaller “big” cities … much smaller.
The current capacity of cities is incredibly overbuilt and the service costs are enormous. When the cost of capital goes up, the maintenance of much (if not most) of that capacity will be abandoned.

2025-01-25 16:29:23

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@npub1vu8…y6js likely (?)

2025-01-25 14:43:56

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I’m more concerned with Coinbase than MSTR specifically. Corporate and government custody has the potential to become a daisy chain of risk spreading…just like the banking system.
I’d like to see more of an effort to leverage these unique attributes of bitcoin to show the market that they actually have claim to a fully-reserved stockpile.
If I was Saylor, I also would believe the markets I am targeting would only value my entity more if I could show (on the blockchain) where my reserves sat. Regardless of the liabilities.
But I’m simply a toxic maxi wanting a bitcoin standard. Maybe I am wrong for barking up this tree. But I’m not gonna stop barking until this gap is addressed.
They’re claiming they are literally buying an entire year’s worth of new bitcoin issuance. More incoming. Their legitimacy matters.

2025-01-25 14:29:00

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Is it better than an open-ended promise? Especially for an entity that will likely hold the significant portion of their reserves in perpetuity (or at least very long duration)?
I see how technically your answer is valid however I still like to see blockchain verification behind the public announcements. Don’t let perfect stand in the way of good.

2025-01-25 14:21:17

Love @npub1s5y…6q7z and @npub1rtl…jtfs and @npub1cn4…3vle … and I agree with the theory MSTR is espousing. When will y’all use your platforms and relationships with @npub15dq…lm5m to push for blockchain verified proof of reserves?
If El Salvador can do it, so can MicroStrategy. If @npub1xke…d0en can do it, so can MicroStrategy.
cc: @npub14py…zd6m @npub1qny…95gx @npub1sg6…f63m @npub10ut…xdlq @npub1guh…6hjy @npub1s05…eyhe @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1gdu…6nak

2025-01-24 12:38:06

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Okay. So show me where on the bitcoin blockchain shareholders can see MSTR’s stack. That’s a killer feature of bitcoin and one of the reasons Saylor claims to be a bitcoin bug. Fully auditable. Superior capital.
Let’s see it then.

2025-01-24 11:56:44

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But it falls apart into another bear…like FTX.
It is suppressing the upside on Bitcoin. And when it blows up, we’ll get the downside to bitcoin.
We need to be calling it out and making people answer the difficult questions now in hopes that we can make it stop before it blows up.
Specifically, the influencer class needs to stop worshipping Saylor. Clearly his tone has changed over the last 3-6 months and we need the voices in the industry to hold him to account.

2025-01-24 11:22:54

The ETFs have bought ~2.5x the new issuance of bitcoin since their inception.
MicroStrategy (alone) claims to have bought ALL the new issuance of bitcoin over the last year.
“…But but but ‘profit taking’…” is keeping the supply shock from occurring?
No … Coinbase - enabled by others - is fractional custodying bitcoin. We have huge amounts of paper bitcoin suppressing the price.

2025-01-19 21:06:38

“Long your longs.” - David Bailey
Jan 18, 2025

2025-01-18 16:54:49

How (more) rich do you think David Bailey got off of $TRUMP coin?

2025-01-16 15:54:11

We should have gone over $100k last cycle. How high would the blow off top have gone? $105k, $150k, $200k? Who knows. But we should have had that blow-off top and we didn’t because of the DeFi shenanigans.
FTX, BlockFi, Celsius had 150k bitcoin that they had to liquidate? How much paper bitcoin was caught up in those psyops? A couple hundred thousand?
Here we are - 9 months after the halving - still floating around a purchasing power of $100k. Bitcoin influencers everywhere - even the hardcore maxis - are drooling over MSTR.
MSTR has exchanged dollars for claims on 450k bitcoin. You don’t think there are games being with the bitcoin they have bought? How much price suppression can COIN and MSTR and financial/government actors achieve by fractional reserving MSTR’s bitcoin? How does the fractional reserve scheme get exposed when governments are backstopping COIN?

2025-01-13 16:44:42

I am a MSTR shareholder calling for proof of reserves.

2025-01-12 16:48:35

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Remember when saving the entire global financial system required a bail out of ~$800B? Some estimates are that insurance will only play out ~$20B and total liabilities are around $150B.
One city, one disastrous event ~10-15% what it took to “save” the *entire* global financial system in 2008-9.

2025-01-12 13:32:54

@npub1r00…sqe8 hey, subscriber here. A question/request about the charts on bitcoinstrategyplatform … the MVRV y-axis goes up to 30 even though the highest we’ve recently seen is ~10 … can we get the ability to change the axis (both x & y) and or will you better fit the axis so we can see the specifics around the recent data we’re looking at?
Thanks.

2025-01-12 12:15:17

Bitcoin replaces bonds.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a-bond-selloff-is-rocking-the-world-you-might-want-to-take-the-other-side-ab1356c3

2025-01-11 22:58:31

It is kinda crazy to go all the way through a cycle … you get to see the rage quits, you see the slowly developing disinterest, you see the very public blow-ups, and you see yourself from four years prior.
So much learning from all the predictable outcomes…gotta stay humble and avoid being a notable outcome.

2025-01-11 22:51:44

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What’s going to trigger the next round of QE (or emergency liquidity boosting action from the Fed)? Since there are those who say there is no recession imminent, why would the Fed stop taking dollars out of the system? What will cause interest rate action?

2025-01-11 16:37:26

Rebranding is nothing new. The perk of having a lot of wealth during a rebrand is that the rebrand is easier and has a higher chance of being successful.

2025-01-11 02:28:54

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In theory, they’re showing everyone the way to win. I’m rooting for their ridiculous success because it will lead to more corporate adoption.
You’ve got to believe that governments will 6102 whatever they can. Publicly traded companies, ETFs, etc.
That’s why I am pretty sure COIN and MSTR are in cahoots and all MSTR’s BTC isn’t fully custodied … fractional reserving is an obvious pre-6102 maneuver.

2025-01-11 02:11:16

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I don’t know … if they actually have all the bitcoin fully custodied they’re using bitcoin to exploit the weakness(es) of the fiat system.
Their playbook works until 10-yr treasury yields are the equivalent to Bitcoin’s annual CAGR. We have a lot of ground to cover between here and there.
I just REALLY wish Saylor would show proof of reserves and mitigate the fractional reserve risk.

2025-01-09 18:12:20

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lol

2025-01-09 16:47:27

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Exactly … which means they’re an attack vector to bitcoin.
Dude, I support EVERYTHING Saylor says, his strategy is 100% on point…it is a speculative attack on fiat financial markets and I LOVE to see it.
I am simply saying that because he “never” intends to sell the vast majority of the coins he is stacking, that is literally the perfect foundation for his custodians to FRACTIONAL RESERVE the mstr bitcoins. That’s not a negotiable like “nah, they won’t do that…” that’s a 100% the custodians are absolutely wanting to do that.
Show me the incentive and I’ll tell you the outcome. COIN is fractional reserve-ing MSTR’s Bitcoin. That’s putting downward pressure on spot Bitcoin’s price. The larger the entities are that get into the game, the easier it will be to fractional reserve the Bitcoin.
Eventually this comes home to roost. 2 years from now? 200 years from now? Fractional reserving won’t work with a 100% scarce asset. If Saylor is a “true bitcoiner” he should be providing proof of reserves on-chain.

2025-01-09 16:34:47

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…well fiat down and to the right but yeah…

2025-01-09 16:32:48

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Why no proof of reserves?
If El Salvador can do it…