BoomTown

scarcity requires trade-offs.

Public Key

npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

NIP-57 Address

noblegoose1@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst6l33qf3eul9rf8hj0c3pphmdqfjcuqv6y2kxtyuutcddenjahzqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduq3camnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wvf5hgcm0d9hx2u3wwdhkx6tpdsjvqfqr

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nostr.bitcoiner.social

bitcoiner.social

Author Public Key

npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

Show more details

Last Notes

2025-04-07 07:37:23

The last, great shakeout for class of 2021 before Valhalla? 😅

2025-04-06 00:56:52

- reply

In any 6102 scenario, bitcoin goes through the roof. There is no seizure and the fact that they tried to “outlaw” it would make markets appreciates it value more quickly.

2025-04-05 15:40:57

What did the Treasury audit of the bitcoin reveal? Was declared that today was the deadline to report holdings.

2025-04-04 12:47:12

- reply

Yes. n00bs deserve huge kudos for holding through the last four years.

2025-04-03 01:31:04

- reply

What is the y-axis?

2025-04-02 06:16:53

- reply

I’d say that doesn’t make any sense.

2025-04-02 03:16:54

- reply

$85k purchasing power 12-months after the halving did that. I’m not spending any of my stack right now. Carrying credit card debt.
Why spend when you have legit bitcoiners calling for $250k to $475k purchasing power by Halloween 2025?

2025-04-01 19:57:21

- reply

https://tenor.com/view/michael-jordan-gif-21585853

2025-04-01 16:36:52

- reply

Time, maybe.

2025-04-01 15:26:56

- reply

I strongly disagree. If they make enough good business moves and have enough time, they can accumulate more capital via the investment of newly accumulated capital than the larger miner.
Especially if the larger miner is destroying capital value through inefficient allocation.

2025-04-01 14:37:08

- reply

That’s not true — scale can kill you in bitcoin mining. There are not many “pockets” of free energy that are 1 GW … someone who heats their home in Alaska might outcompete Riot on a profitability standpoint.
Capital grows. So starting with capital is better than not starting with capital. But that’s just a fact of private property, there will never be a “fair” allocation of capital that doesn’t benefit incumbents.
But bitcoin mining is as ruthlessly competitive of a business as there is. Negative returns on capital compound, too.

2025-04-01 13:24:11

- reply

The first miner took more risk than the second miner. If the bitcoin price went down (or stagnates) and the first bitcoin miner’s PPA is or becomes uncompetitive then the second miner actually has the advantage.

2025-03-31 20:34:34

- reply

Does it though? I doubt it. Want to prove me wrong? Show us the bitcoin addresses.

2025-03-29 02:59:29

When does hashrate drop? Lots of miners running at a loss?

2025-03-21 10:12:59

This is more than M2 global liquidity blunting a bull market. This is the “then they fight you” stage, they’re doing it behind the scenes as to not draw attention to bitcoin the asset, and most bitcoiners seem oblivious or don’t care. Honey badgers?
#note12t0…7eha

2025-03-15 16:55:01

- reply

Good question!

2025-03-11 13:36:49

- reply

Bro, I have like 800 followers. For as much time as I spend on here, it would be nice to have a little more reach.
GFYaYFFMC

2025-02-25 19:00:42

Chat GPT says that upon a bitcoin SBR announcement, bitcoin is $200k+ overnight… #note1c60…t6qr

2025-02-18 19:23:08

Bro … give maxi class of 2021 some empathy … waiting for that first sweet windfall. #note1zrw…6kq5

2025-02-18 12:39:19

- reply

Slightly different bot … cycle low vs. halving tracker.

2025-02-17 17:23:06

Make it a bot!! #note1tp7…q4aq

2025-02-15 19:58:54

Looks at how the institutional traders are suppressing Bitcoin volatility. Think they can do this forever?

2025-02-15 19:42:57

- reply

The power law model is a psyop to keep normies from becoming maxis. Very disappointing to see how much play it is getting this cycle.

2025-02-15 11:48:09

Well … $200k by Valentine’s Day turned out not to be a thing.

2025-02-14 23:10:36

- reply

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/14/jd-vance-stuns-munich-conference-with-blistering-attack-on-europes-leaders

2025-02-13 23:15:08

- reply

Most people want an experience similar to what they have in their physical wallet and online bank account.
Bitcoin’s UX still sucks. Im not a complete idiot and I can keep track of all these different products providing different services. Which ones can I trust? Which ones are used where?
Just like in VC enabled Web3…there are far too many options and none of them make life “easier”

2025-02-13 12:55:26

- reply

Because the pools of capital that will soon be allocating to bitcoin are much larger than the pools of capital that were allocating to the retail rips. Also, those pools of capital will not be trading, they will be holding (per mandates) for 5-10 years.
Also, the legitimization of the asset that comes from traditional institutions participating.
Finally, the absolute scarcity and Bitcoin hodlers inclination to hodl the majority of their stack, whatever the price.

2025-02-11 01:45:29

- reply

Since when is a bitcoin bull market “measured” 😂

2025-02-11 01:42:48

- reply

You’ve been pretty bearish about this bull cycle … I think you were like $150k maybe $200k on your last round of podcasts.
Is the lengthy consolidation and the macro overlay making you question that call? Getting more bullish that we can get to $450-$500k in 2025? Higher?

2025-02-10 16:12:49

@npub1guh…6hjy is so excited for Bretton Woods 2.0 … it’s gonna be fun to listen to him as it comes to pass.

2025-02-08 03:07:35

- reply

The biggest risk isn’t that Coinbase is fractional reserving MSTR’s coins? 🥶

2025-02-06 15:10:32

- reply

Isn’t OTC mostly miners? Or is there a place where we can find what types of coins are trading on OTC?

2025-02-01 23:16:54

- reply

It’s measured in productive time. How many years labor? Or oz gold? Or certain type of house. But ultimately it is a measure of productivity stored in bitcoin.
(GDP + historical capital asset value) / 21M bitcoin

2025-02-01 19:52:36

- reply

I think you’ve missed my point. I explicitly state NGU is measured as time stored per bitcoin. That metric is purchasing power and has nothing to do with dollars or any other fiat measure. It has to do with how much productivity is stored per bitcoin. That has to go up, forever AND - at this stage - it has to go up quite a lot to compensate for the risks taken.

2025-01-27 20:05:31

- reply

This is an incredibly bad take. One does not just generate 10% global oil supply from existing conventional oil & gas production sources. If 10% came off the market, it would take awhile to ramp up the Canadian oil sands and American shale oil to close the gap. Oil would get crippling expensive in the intermediary many, many months.

2025-01-27 15:28:07

There is no profit in AI …

2025-01-25 22:29:36

- reply

Smaller “big” cities … much smaller.
The current capacity of cities is incredibly overbuilt and the service costs are enormous. When the cost of capital goes up, the maintenance of much (if not most) of that capacity will be abandoned.

2025-01-25 16:29:23

- reply

@npub1vu8…y6js likely (?)

2025-01-25 14:43:56

- reply

I’m more concerned with Coinbase than MSTR specifically. Corporate and government custody has the potential to become a daisy chain of risk spreading…just like the banking system.
I’d like to see more of an effort to leverage these unique attributes of bitcoin to show the market that they actually have claim to a fully-reserved stockpile.
If I was Saylor, I also would believe the markets I am targeting would only value my entity more if I could show (on the blockchain) where my reserves sat. Regardless of the liabilities.
But I’m simply a toxic maxi wanting a bitcoin standard. Maybe I am wrong for barking up this tree. But I’m not gonna stop barking until this gap is addressed.
They’re claiming they are literally buying an entire year’s worth of new bitcoin issuance. More incoming. Their legitimacy matters.

2025-01-25 14:21:17

Love @npub1s5y…6q7z and @npub1rtl…jtfs and @npub1cn4…3vle … and I agree with the theory MSTR is espousing. When will y’all use your platforms and relationships with @npub15dq…lm5m to push for blockchain verified proof of reserves?
If El Salvador can do it, so can MicroStrategy. If @npub1xke…d0en can do it, so can MicroStrategy.
cc: @npub14py…zd6m @npub1qny…95gx @npub1sg6…f63m @npub10ut…xdlq @npub1guh…6hjy @npub1s05…eyhe @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1gdu…6nak

2025-01-24 12:38:06

- reply

Okay. So show me where on the bitcoin blockchain shareholders can see MSTR’s stack. That’s a killer feature of bitcoin and one of the reasons Saylor claims to be a bitcoin bug. Fully auditable. Superior capital.
Let’s see it then.

2025-01-24 11:56:44

- reply

But it falls apart into another bear…like FTX.
It is suppressing the upside on Bitcoin. And when it blows up, we’ll get the downside to bitcoin.
We need to be calling it out and making people answer the difficult questions now in hopes that we can make it stop before it blows up.
Specifically, the influencer class needs to stop worshipping Saylor. Clearly his tone has changed over the last 3-6 months and we need the voices in the industry to hold him to account.

2025-01-24 11:22:54

The ETFs have bought ~2.5x the new issuance of bitcoin since their inception.
MicroStrategy (alone) claims to have bought ALL the new issuance of bitcoin over the last year.
“…But but but ‘profit taking’…” is keeping the supply shock from occurring?
No … Coinbase - enabled by others - is fractional custodying bitcoin. We have huge amounts of paper bitcoin suppressing the price.

2025-01-19 21:06:38

“Long your longs.” - David Bailey
Jan 18, 2025

2025-01-18 16:54:49

How (more) rich do you think David Bailey got off of $TRUMP coin?

2025-01-16 15:54:11

We should have gone over $100k last cycle. How high would the blow off top have gone? $105k, $150k, $200k? Who knows. But we should have had that blow-off top and we didn’t because of the DeFi shenanigans.
FTX, BlockFi, Celsius had 150k bitcoin that they had to liquidate? How much paper bitcoin was caught up in those psyops? A couple hundred thousand?
Here we are - 9 months after the halving - still floating around a purchasing power of $100k. Bitcoin influencers everywhere - even the hardcore maxis - are drooling over MSTR.
MSTR has exchanged dollars for claims on 450k bitcoin. You don’t think there are games being with the bitcoin they have bought? How much price suppression can COIN and MSTR and financial/government actors achieve by fractional reserving MSTR’s bitcoin? How does the fractional reserve scheme get exposed when governments are backstopping COIN?

2025-01-13 16:44:42

I am a MSTR shareholder calling for proof of reserves.

2025-01-12 16:48:35

- reply

Remember when saving the entire global financial system required a bail out of ~$800B? Some estimates are that insurance will only play out ~$20B and total liabilities are around $150B.
One city, one disastrous event ~10-15% what it took to “save” the *entire* global financial system in 2008-9.

2025-01-12 13:32:54

@npub1r00…sqe8 hey, subscriber here. A question/request about the charts on bitcoinstrategyplatform … the MVRV y-axis goes up to 30 even though the highest we’ve recently seen is ~10 … can we get the ability to change the axis (both x & y) and or will you better fit the axis so we can see the specifics around the recent data we’re looking at?
Thanks.

2025-01-12 12:15:17

Bitcoin replaces bonds.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a-bond-selloff-is-rocking-the-world-you-might-want-to-take-the-other-side-ab1356c3

2025-01-11 22:58:31

It is kinda crazy to go all the way through a cycle … you get to see the rage quits, you see the slowly developing disinterest, you see the very public blow-ups, and you see yourself from four years prior.
So much learning from all the predictable outcomes…gotta stay humble and avoid being a notable outcome.

2025-01-11 22:51:44

- reply

What’s going to trigger the next round of QE (or emergency liquidity boosting action from the Fed)? Since there are those who say there is no recession imminent, why would the Fed stop taking dollars out of the system? What will cause interest rate action?

2025-01-11 16:37:26

Rebranding is nothing new. The perk of having a lot of wealth during a rebrand is that the rebrand is easier and has a higher chance of being successful.

2025-01-11 02:28:54

- reply

In theory, they’re showing everyone the way to win. I’m rooting for their ridiculous success because it will lead to more corporate adoption.
You’ve got to believe that governments will 6102 whatever they can. Publicly traded companies, ETFs, etc.
That’s why I am pretty sure COIN and MSTR are in cahoots and all MSTR’s BTC isn’t fully custodied … fractional reserving is an obvious pre-6102 maneuver.

2025-01-11 02:11:16

- reply

I don’t know … if they actually have all the bitcoin fully custodied they’re using bitcoin to exploit the weakness(es) of the fiat system.
Their playbook works until 10-yr treasury yields are the equivalent to Bitcoin’s annual CAGR. We have a lot of ground to cover between here and there.
I just REALLY wish Saylor would show proof of reserves and mitigate the fractional reserve risk.

2025-01-09 18:12:20

- reply

lol

2025-01-09 16:47:27

- reply

Exactly … which means they’re an attack vector to bitcoin.
Dude, I support EVERYTHING Saylor says, his strategy is 100% on point…it is a speculative attack on fiat financial markets and I LOVE to see it.
I am simply saying that because he “never” intends to sell the vast majority of the coins he is stacking, that is literally the perfect foundation for his custodians to FRACTIONAL RESERVE the mstr bitcoins. That’s not a negotiable like “nah, they won’t do that…” that’s a 100% the custodians are absolutely wanting to do that.
Show me the incentive and I’ll tell you the outcome. COIN is fractional reserve-ing MSTR’s Bitcoin. That’s putting downward pressure on spot Bitcoin’s price. The larger the entities are that get into the game, the easier it will be to fractional reserve the Bitcoin.
Eventually this comes home to roost. 2 years from now? 200 years from now? Fractional reserving won’t work with a 100% scarce asset. If Saylor is a “true bitcoiner” he should be providing proof of reserves on-chain.

2025-01-09 16:34:47

- reply

…well fiat down and to the right but yeah…

2025-01-09 16:32:48

- reply

Why no proof of reserves?
If El Salvador can do it…

2025-01-09 16:31:51

- reply

I have, on a cost basis, 5% of my net worth in MSTR. If you have more, good for you. But you’re trusting, not verifying. Your MSTR position could get rekt.
Proof of reserves helps to derisk rekt risk. Unclear why Saylor doesn’t do it…

2025-01-09 16:10:10

- reply

Which means their custodian doesn’t have to hold the bitcoin. Duh.

2025-01-09 15:20:55

Provocative idea (not sure I believe it myself yet TBH) but a MSTR psyop would be meant to destroy the bitcoin community from within.
All my favorite Bitcoin podcasters are absolutely enamored - both intellectually and personally - with MSTR and Saylor.
Biggest attack vector to mass bitcoin adoption that I can see this cycle would be if MSTR turns out to be a psyop.
Be careful out there… #note1aat…4z0z

2025-01-09 15:16:37

- reply

The FTX psyop had to bring in Larry David, Tom Brady, Steph Curry, et al (and Sequoia for the tech finance community) to break the market’s psyche

2025-01-09 15:15:01

Also, FTX was a psyop … there is no way Sequoia made an investment in FTX without SERIOUS governance documents unless FTX was a psyop. Thats like VC 101 — full control of the founder and corporate operations. The powers that be … they had to break S2F … otherwise market emotions would already have us approaching $1M this cycle and the global bond market / dollar would already be in shambles. #note1we5…mx9d

2025-01-09 15:11:07

- reply

The power law was developed to counter the obvious and impactful implications of S2F … amazing how so many bitcoiners have anchored to the obviously bearish model.
Assumes basically no network effects of adoption. It is fucking stupid.

2025-01-09 14:37:05

https://x.com/EricAbbenante/status/1877207054105886836

2025-01-08 16:13:19

- reply

Agreed. Right now it seems like V4V advocates are giving out participation trophies to creators while shaming people with the zapotential…
(I zap from my doxxed personal account).

2025-01-08 15:33:34

- reply

But why sell now? History says the next 6-9 months should be gangbusters. Doesn’t make sense why there is so much selling pressure +40-50% beyond the last cycle’s ATH.
I call shenanigans.

2025-01-08 15:31:05

- reply

*Quality creators*
Throwing a forgettable concert with a NOSTR interface doesn’t immediately deserve zaps. Neither does a pretty girl with tattoos posing scandalously.
We need original and impactful *art*, *music*, *philosophy*, *science* shared on NOSTR … AND that sharing needs to be uniquely, more conveniently, etc. consumed digitally.
For example, a concert is meant to be consumed in person. The value of the concert is the human element of a shared, live experience. Once the novelty of zapping and V4V wears off and/or more artists start streaming via NOSTR creators should expect the value to trend towards its marginal operating cost to push a live event out digitally, which will trend towards zero.
It’s the great reckoning our generation faces…all this digital content is essentially worthless. Even if it is “invaluable” … the equivalent of Jeff Booth’s oxygen analogy.
There will always be someone willing to post/stream content essentially for free. Unless there is something TRULY unique about that content, the value trends to zero. That’s why corporate social media has to sell the metadata…the actual digital content we generate is worthless.

2025-01-08 11:59:42

- reply

Interesting comment — they’re not lumped together.
“Unprecedented human progress” coincided with the discovery of liquid and gaseous fossil fuels and the invention of the internal combustion engine. Our progress should be attributed to those, not fiat credit expansion.
Debt is a priority claim on an asset. Equity is a residual claim. There will always be a market for priority as there is less risk on priority claims. Therefore there will always be a credit market. The size of future credit markets, though, will be much smaller than it is today.
Coinbase is fractional reserve banking bitcoin. The more deposits they have, the easier this is. The exact % of reserves they’re holding isn’t clear but the larger share of the bitcoin market they have (with IBIT ETF, other ETFs, and MSTR they are probably over 1% of the total bitcoin supply, and a much higher percentage of the current Bitcoin issuance schedule). As the chance that there is a “run” on these coins is lower the more coins they have, they’re able to have fewer and fewer BTC on hand to meet market demands. This will only get worse with time if most new bitcoiners aren’t custodying their own coins.
Inflation is about the size of the numerator. As bitcoin is successful, that numerator is approaching a fixed 21M BTC supply cap. But if Coinbase and others are using fractional reserve banking than the paper equivalent of those coins will be higher. While this means we won’t experience as much deflation as they otherwise would, we won’t have inflation like we’ve become accustomed to - valued in $$.
IMO the biggest threat to Bitcoin is their ability to blunt NGU…which they’ll do using fractional reserve hodling and is enabled by MSTR and the ETFs not doing proof of reserves. I think it is pretty clear Coinbase is fractional reserving the Bitcoin they custody right now (at some level) and not very many of the bitcoiners on NOSTR seem to GAF…which is very confusing.

2025-01-07 19:37:27

- reply

It’s Coinbase fractional reserving the ETF and MSTR bitcoin

2025-01-07 14:00:35

Who is fractional reserve “banking” bitcoin?

2025-01-07 09:21:17

- reply

Yes

2025-01-07 09:18:29

- reply

They sufficiently scared retail last cycle with the FTX-induced rug after Larry David and Tom Brady.

2025-01-06 15:19:34

- reply

If I feel “good” I’ll do a strenuous walk … but water/salt fasts longer than 48 hours are no joke (at least for me) … I don’t push my body beyond the fasting.

2025-01-06 15:02:38

https://youtu.be/dJUrK1ghZic #note1ckj…eu6z

2025-01-06 04:14:05

Trading hours in Dubai have started…

2025-01-04 18:30:11

That’s gonna be the cope for the normies this cycle…
“Well if Trump didn’t support bitcoin it would have failed.”
Normies NGMI … they’ll HFSP #note1pp7…32h4

2025-01-04 18:15:49

- reply

2025-01-04 18:03:53

- reply

Since bitcoin is accessible to everyone, globally, it will be the benchmark for every investment (alternative capital allocation). MSTR is just a shitcoin with idiosyncratic risk. Some people will want that risk BUT it should be compared to bitcoin. And all other companies will come up with some other risk allocation that is differentiated from bitcoin in its return, return type (i.e. appreciation vs. dividends), timeline of return, and volatility.
4-year HODL, 50% CAGR realized via appreciation, 3-5% volatility is the benchmark.

2025-01-04 15:37:38

- reply

Let’s at least get to @npub1k7v…c04l $475k this cycle … my life changes forever at that level from a stress perspective. Then I just hodl on … through every 4 year cycle until hyperbitcoinization.
At $250k (ish) there are still some stresses I could see during the next bear.

2025-01-03 15:25:20

- reply

Jesus Christ is God … that’s the difference.

2025-01-03 13:23:41

- reply

If NGU it will be used as money. The biggest threat the states/corporations bring is the ability to fractional reserve bank bitcoin which will keep the price suppressed.

2025-01-02 03:09:14

- reply

When it comes time the 3rd & 4th seasons are the best.

2025-01-01 13:35:46

It’s back! The best bots… #note1ju9…p7hu

2024-12-30 17:19:34

- reply

I don’t believe Coinbase has them all. I am fine believing that MSTR has a claim on their Bitcoin. But if they never plan on using all - or even some of them - then Coinbase can fractional reserve bank their bitcoin.

2024-12-30 16:51:02

- reply

Wait, Stranger Things is real?

2024-12-30 16:44:44

- reply

If El Salvador can post the address associated with their 6,000 bitcoin I am not sure why MicroStrategy can’t (won’t) do the same.

2024-12-28 17:39:14

- reply

There is no capitalism with a centrally planned monetary policy. Central banks make capitalism impossible and communism inevitable.

2024-12-28 17:31:53

- reply

Yeah, there is very little “capitalistic” about Musk’s strategies. His entire empire is built on and requires revenues from government agencies. Most - if not all - of which defy free market forces.

2024-12-28 14:47:42

- reply

What happened to the chart? @npub1qny…95gx I thought we were going to have the best bots…

2024-12-28 03:49:32

- reply

There is less opportunity and upside for people working in those blue collar jobs than there once was. Both immediate - like their ability to afford housing, transportation, and food let alone raising a family comfortably - and long term in the form of career paths.
If you’re 35 years old and an auto mechanic it is difficult to envision buying a house, raising a family, and owning your own garage against the backdrop of today’s financial and cultural landscape.
I believe people respond to incentives and so work consistent with the outcomes they believe are attainable.

2024-12-27 22:56:17

In order for more bitcoiners to make their difference in the world, traditional assets have to get repriced in bitcoin terms. There are already too many “asset light” businesses, comoanies, etc. in the space. We need oil fields, manufacturing facilities, farms, apartment complexes, etc. run on bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s NGU is necessary to realize the future we talk about. #note1m95…zqqp

2024-12-27 22:33:48

- reply

What happened to the chart? @npub1j4u…d6x9

2024-12-23 20:57:35

- reply

I believe there was a comment that the dollar has been strengthening relative to other currencies, which is what is creating this dynamic in the short term. @npub1k7v…c04l said on @npub1s5y…6q7z that he expects the dollar to begin weakening by end of December, early January…

2024-12-23 16:14:30

- reply

But once that happens, the price of US treasuries plummets, increasing the yields, impacting equity markets as corporations have to refinance their debt. There is no way that hoarding bitcoin ends in a soft landing.
It will be fast and furious. There will be “haves” and “have nots.” No way around it. Markets aren’t stupid…

2024-12-23 14:29:42

- reply

For now, they are just holding. Disclose your actions and show us on the public blockchain where we can find the corresponding move.
It only adds value to the company (at this moment in time) if they offer proof of reserves.

2024-12-23 13:43:12

- reply

In an exchange, I can see how that makes sense. But on cold storage treasury strategy intended on staying held in perpetuity?
I disagree, strongly.

2024-12-23 02:11:23

This 100% … #note1pkq…k3d4

2024-12-22 20:58:40

- reply

I believe in his thesis … 100%.
When do they deliver proof of reserves?