BoomTown

scarcity requires trade-offs.

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npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

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noblegoose1@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqst6l33qf3eul9rf8hj0c3pphmdqfjcuqv6y2kxtyuutcddenjahzqpr3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezucnfw33k76twv4ezuum0vd5kzmqpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzvuhstu3spp

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npub1h4lrzqnrne72xj00yl3zzr0k6qn93cqe5g4vvkfechs6mn89mwyqfa2jcm

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Last Notes

2025-05-19 02:14:33

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Are cycles still a thing? At this point I’m not sure.

2025-05-13 23:21:14

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Most social media content has no value.

2025-05-12 19:05:26

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lol

2025-05-08 00:46:20

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It’s cheaper than raising equity for a small venture.

2025-05-08 00:15:58

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See … we need NGU so that more people can accept below market compensation.

2025-05-07 14:18:36

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I think bitcoin’s price action is because the Fed has been buying a couple/few dozen billions worth of treasuries each of the last few days.
But look over there and not over here.

2025-05-05 18:37:08

Coinbase is this cycle’s FTX

2025-05-05 15:49:48

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What have they been doing for the last 18+ months?

2025-05-05 14:38:13

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https://youtu.be/hWMnbJJpeZc

2025-05-05 02:03:55

How humbling it must be to be a fiat billionaire, recognize Bitcoin for what it is, and not be able to control the price action.
Unless you’re Trump and Lutnick…then you fucking control it. What the fuck are you doing?
Puhmp it.

2025-05-04 02:49:17

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When bull market @npub1qny…95gx ? Class of ‘21 wants to know.

2025-05-04 01:03:20

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100%

2025-05-03 17:49:05

Where is the puhmp!?
#note17my…j573

2025-05-03 14:32:30

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FTX suppressed price and adoption. That showed up in court filings. The Bitcoin market is 100% being manipulated. Last cycle it was FTX, Celsius, etc. … this cycle it is Coinbase, Binance, etc.
Adoption of a digital technology is not the same as mechanical, supply chain heavy technology.
I think you’re a spook.

2025-05-03 14:09:37

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That’s a simp take. All networks grow exponentially. Power law was the response to S2F … power law is for simps and spooks.

2025-05-03 13:57:04

Can we go back to worrying about NGU … ?
Im annoyed AF right now. 100+ days since the ATH and even that was kinda late and pathetic based on historical standards.
Exponential means exponential. Not linear. Not diminishing returns.

2025-05-02 02:41:08

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I would like more of a bump in purchasing power before I *really* start spending mine, though.

2025-04-30 05:57:33

@npub1guh…6hjy left the door open to “supercycle” on last week’s @npub10ut…xdlq … we’re not humble enough, yet.

2025-04-30 02:06:10

The most valuable and prettiest and toughest part of Canada wants out? I wish them well in their efforts.
#note19dl…gfew

2025-04-30 01:37:01

@npub1de6…q0sd how important is this $95k resistance?

2025-04-29 14:32:03

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So you’re saying 40-70 mg a day is too much? 😂 I’m doing it wrong.

2025-04-29 02:25:57

Canada’s NGMI
#note1wtz…dyzu

2025-04-27 15:26:27

We can’t hate the communists enough.
#note160j…03qq

2025-04-25 13:44:31

@npub1rtl…jtfs 😏
#note1xkt…55ez

2025-04-25 02:47:50

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Nah, there will always be value to territories with claims over resources - energy and assets. There will always be government and it is reasonable to expect that the United States will continue on for decades to come. The fact that the United States is getting onboard with (maybe even embracing) bitcoin means that they will be best positioned to navigate the transition. And as Bitcoin is still in its infancy for medium of exchange, the USD will still be used to settle commerce in the short to medium term (10+ years).
Bitcoiners can’t keep others from using bitcoin and bitcoin being integrated into legacy systems and institutions. Bitcoin wins in the end and the dollar will be stronger for the USA embracing Bitcoin than it would without the government’s support.

2025-04-24 02:50:24

WTF will keep this bull run from fully manifesting in the next 3 months? … like full on, face melting upside price action. If we are winning then the class of 2021 needs to experience their windfall moment.

2025-04-23 01:48:54

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Fuck me.

2025-04-22 02:23:47

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Yeah, I mean everyone is acting like we’re not 20%+ off the ATH … let’s talk “decoupling” when bitty is pumping to $175k and stocks are flat to down.

2025-04-22 01:10:52

Again, this guy is good.
#note1py7…ldmh

2025-04-21 21:48:31

This guy is good.
#note1qzx…y80j

2025-04-18 03:13:11

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Sure but do it on a mineral / agricultural GDP basis … service economies are about to go belly up.

2025-04-18 03:12:01

At a dinner tonight, the US Treasury market came up. I characterized last week as a collapse that required Trump to fold his hand.
An old wealthy real estate guy, balls deep in a real estate PE vehemently disagreed with me, saying that the treasury market was fine and that “he checks it 10 times a day” he would know … unrelenting, I pulled up the Apple stocks app 10-year US treasury chart and showed him that it collapsed between April 7-April 9 which coincided with Trump blinking on his tariff strategy … he quickly changed the subject to something totally unrelated with the other 3 guys in the group. After about 5 minutes, I asked if we could revisit the treasury market discussion. He aggressively embraced my upper arm a couple times, looked away and proclaimed that “he wasn’t going there again” and then walked off to “get another drink.”
We’re winning and they know it.

2025-04-14 22:10:16

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Higher (blow-off) top in 2021 … institutions driving price up more (higher low, etc.) … supercycles … etc.

2025-04-14 22:07:34

The influencer class was 100% wrong about the bitcoin market since spring 2021 yet they persist.

2025-04-14 20:20:21

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Rough go for them recently. Props to those still churning out hashrate.

2025-04-14 18:17:08

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Come on …

2025-04-14 17:35:46

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And maybe a government asset

2025-04-14 16:41:06

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I notice that the price action talk on podcasts has effectively stopped. All the bitcoin influencers / podcasters are going into their shells and putting their head in the sand. Hate that they’re ignoring the 800 lb gorilla in the room.

2025-04-14 16:39:24

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We’ve had more patience with less benefit than everyone who entered bitcoin before 2021.

2025-04-14 16:15:51

Tax day makes me loath government even more.
#note1hgq…4s8c

2025-04-14 15:46:27

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1q29…9wj4

2025-04-14 15:46:16

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1hl3…lr5v

2025-04-14 15:46:05

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1gfj…mulc

2025-04-14 15:45:54

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1d9t…5zdk

2025-04-14 15:45:40

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1f6v…jtlk

2025-04-14 15:44:15

Was this David Bailey? #longyourlongs
Jan 18, 2025
#note1hat…wa9z

2025-04-14 15:42:16

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Man, those of us who went all in starting in 2021 are getting boned on a relative basis. Sucks.

2025-04-14 14:12:25

Miners are getting just absolutely boned right now.

2025-04-07 07:37:23

The last, great shakeout for class of 2021 before Valhalla? 😅

2025-04-06 18:05:42

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That’s an extra level of fraud. Let’s get the first step, first.

2025-04-06 17:13:55

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Then we’re just back to trust…not verify.

2025-04-06 17:06:46

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Just a little snark, You’re the dood going to his parties and advocating for MSTR on the podcast circuit. You’re on a much better position to affect change than little ol me.

2025-04-06 16:55:03

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Agreed. Speaking of, when MSTR proof of reserves?

2025-04-06 14:11:08

What did the bitcoin audit reveal? Or is it another public swing and miss by David Bailey?
@npub1qny…95gx @npub1guh…6hjy

2025-04-06 00:56:52

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In any 6102 scenario, bitcoin goes through the roof. There is no seizure and the fact that they tried to “outlaw” it would make markets appreciates it value more quickly.

2025-04-05 15:40:57

What did the Treasury audit of the bitcoin reveal? Was declared that today was the deadline to report holdings.

2025-04-04 12:47:12

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Yes. n00bs deserve huge kudos for holding through the last four years.

2025-04-03 01:44:10

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Recommend? Straight or in mixed drinks?

2025-04-03 01:43:29

Fuck to the yeah.
#note18zl…ay0k

2025-04-03 01:31:04

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What is the y-axis?

2025-04-02 06:16:53

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I’d say that doesn’t make any sense.

2025-04-02 03:16:54

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$85k purchasing power 12-months after the halving did that. I’m not spending any of my stack right now. Carrying credit card debt.
Why spend when you have legit bitcoiners calling for $250k to $475k purchasing power by Halloween 2025?

2025-04-01 19:57:21

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https://tenor.com/view/michael-jordan-gif-21585853

2025-04-01 16:36:52

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Time, maybe.

2025-04-01 15:26:56

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I strongly disagree. If they make enough good business moves and have enough time, they can accumulate more capital via the investment of newly accumulated capital than the larger miner.
Especially if the larger miner is destroying capital value through inefficient allocation.

2025-04-01 15:13:49

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Compounding on 1 btc vs. 100 btc vs. 100,000 btc is always going to reward / punish the biggest capital allocation. That’s just math. Can’t be bitter that some people have more than us. I’d bet on barefoot mining ahead of Riot and/or Marathon and/or Hut8 … and the at home miner can outperform them all depending on their use case and source of energy.
There is no such thing as fair. Focus on return on capital. Allocation of capital is work. Mining is 100% proof of work … appreciate you are trying to be contrarian with a new take. I just 100% disagree with your qualm. It isn’t with bitcoin mining, it’s with the current distribution of capital.

2025-04-01 14:37:08

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That’s not true — scale can kill you in bitcoin mining. There are not many “pockets” of free energy that are 1 GW … someone who heats their home in Alaska might outcompete Riot on a profitability standpoint.
Capital grows. So starting with capital is better than not starting with capital. But that’s just a fact of private property, there will never be a “fair” allocation of capital that doesn’t benefit incumbents.
But bitcoin mining is as ruthlessly competitive of a business as there is. Negative returns on capital compound, too.

2025-04-01 13:24:11

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The first miner took more risk than the second miner. If the bitcoin price went down (or stagnates) and the first bitcoin miner’s PPA is or becomes uncompetitive then the second miner actually has the advantage.

2025-03-31 20:34:34

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Does it though? I doubt it. Want to prove me wrong? Show us the bitcoin addresses.

2025-03-31 04:39:35

Blub, Bluuuuub, BLUUUUUUUUUUUB!
#note19m9…r9xn

2025-03-29 02:59:29

When does hashrate drop? Lots of miners running at a loss?

2025-03-28 13:02:43

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I’d argue that knowing the design of the protocol AND the proof of work mechanism and difficulty adjustment, a bitcoiner knows that the value of bitcoin goes up over time. Whether or not the bitcoin market price goes up month to month can be manipulated BUT the fundamentals of bitcoin from a first principles level NECESSITATES NGU.
It’s just a function of on what timescale and how aggressively. Right now the fiat assholes are doing a pretty good job manipulating the bitcoin rate of exchange markets.
I blame Coinbase.

2025-03-26 10:57:05

Class of 2021 is the hardest class. Longest bear market, no blow-off top, bear draw down below prior ATH, absolute shit 2025 bull market.
I’m saltier than everyone else because the data says I should be.
#note15pq…sq77

2025-03-26 07:22:55

“What’s taking so long?” — Class of 2021

2025-03-21 14:24:58

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Thanks for the troll. It is a serious question about the timeline for the bills progressing in the United States Congress. Is it spring? Summer? Fall? Next year?

2025-03-21 12:57:43

What’s the expected timeline for the bitcoin legislation?

2025-03-21 10:12:59

This is more than M2 global liquidity blunting a bull market. This is the “then they fight you” stage, they’re doing it behind the scenes as to not draw attention to bitcoin the asset, and most bitcoiners seem oblivious or don’t care. Honey badgers?
#note12t0…7eha

2025-03-18 13:42:38

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You don’t endure 80% drawdowns for 9% CAGR. Thats just bad risk management. I am expecting something much more aligned with prior cycles’ performance (which is where this tit for tat started). Somewhere around $250k/BTC, minimum.
https://image.nostr.build/248bdf5ccbc2b77e73d5abeb9ecc6df9d0797361baa4e556b24d31367f84e631.jpg

2025-03-18 13:34:12

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Sure. I’m changed, too. But if my purchasing power doesn’t go up and I have to keep working within and for a system designed to suck out my soul vs. be free and sovereign then the theory doesn’t matter.
And all (or at least most) these dudes posting their bitcoin-enabled, sovereign lives are class 2017 or earlier.
NGU is critically important. Congrats if you can accomplish your dreams at this point … mine needs NGU.

2025-03-18 13:11:39

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Buying real world assets and doing real things serving real people the right way is the goal. Bitcoin is a tool for accomplishing that (but NGU has to happen.)
NGU is in regards to purchasing power and dollar denominated purchasing power is the simplest method for communicating Bitcoin’s purchasing power.

2025-03-18 13:09:17

Really, David? This week is gonna be a big week?
https://image.nostr.build/09d488d5538871c6d6afc2986de44c9e7703abb693422736a0fabd08e9665a0a.jpg

2025-03-18 12:47:13

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Depends on the volume. Probably not.
2M+ bitcoin at coinbase … fluctuating their float by 100 bps to manage market volatility is very meaningful.

2025-03-18 12:33:21

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Then you’re familiar with diminishing returns.
Need NGU so that this next generation of bitcoiners can go build things in the real world using bitcoin as the base layer. We need to be unapologetic in our expectation for NGU and skeptical of all the avenues that might suppress NGU.

2025-03-18 12:24:05

Truth. Everyone else has experienced that windfall. Class of 21 over here holding an asset that’s performed like a crummy value stock.
#note1eve…md86

2025-03-17 19:35:55

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https://tenor.com/view/rage-christian-bale-gif-20211156

2025-03-15 16:55:01

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Good question!

2025-03-15 04:03:57

(sigh.)
#note1vsp…7fyr

2025-03-11 13:36:49

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Bro, I have like 800 followers. For as much time as I spend on here, it would be nice to have a little more reach.
GFYaYFFMC

2025-03-11 12:19:45

https://tenor.com/view/rage-christian-bale-gif-20211156 #note15pq…sq77

2025-03-04 11:30:11

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Feels like the opposition has landed a few body blows these last 6 weeks.

2025-03-03 11:55:05

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Because I think the American system of government is the superior system to anything that is out there today. And I think sound money will force these governmental institutions into becoming more efficient. And since I believe some form of government is inevitable, I would appreciate bitcoin giving these government institutions the chance to purge and redeem themselves. Return to their original intent. Worst case scenario is that the United States government (local, state, and federal) is too far gone and bitcoin forces a reboot, restructuring, implosion from within…so both government haters and proud (yet disappointed) Americans should be embracing the SBR.
Bitcoin is going to force accountability, one way or the other.

2025-02-28 09:02:49

Class of 2021 here … all I have experienced is pain. #note12zd…yefj

2025-02-25 19:00:42

Chat GPT says that upon a bitcoin SBR announcement, bitcoin is $200k+ overnight… #note1c60…t6qr

2025-02-22 13:58:20

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It reminds me of the time Odell told me I was a fucking idiot for telling him that he had to get off Twitter since Elon made blue checks free to accounts with reach…and he was intellectually inconsistent. He was off Twitter within a week.
You’re being nicer about it. I know the truth is inconvenient but you know I’m right. It is an intellectual inconsistency you’re living with - we all do it to a degree; I mean - shoot! - it is the way you and the rest of the Ten31 team get paid to be working in bitcoin.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t jealous. Bitcoin VC seems like it’d be an awesome gig. I wish I could have the best of both worlds like y’all do. Frfr
Fiat world lives on … I’m gonna stay humble and stack sats about it. Congrats on the VC gig…

2025-02-21 14:12:18

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Yes … and their investment in Ten31 and the Ten31 portfolio companies (and the management fees Ten31 charges) will under perform bitcoin.
Bitcoin destroys the VC fund model. VC funds are the centralization of capital with the intent to have a trusted group allocate that capital. Bitcoin will replace VC funds with private syndicates raising specific equity targets.
Look, I support Ten31 and what you’re trying to do … but let’s not pretend that it’s not going to clearly underperform Bitcoin. It’s a shitcoin for investors, but some whale Bitcoin investors might get behind the thesis that more Bitcoin companies will lead to faster and sticker widespread Bitcoin adoption and pump their Bitcoin bags. I don’t.
Stay humble and stack sats about it.

2025-02-20 02:35:32

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Your LPs should just buy bitcoin. There is no world where Ten31 (as a complete portfolio) outperforms Bitcoin over 5 years. No chance.

2025-02-18 19:23:08

Bro … give maxi class of 2021 some empathy … waiting for that first sweet windfall. #note1zrw…6kq5

2025-02-18 18:52:03

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Ten31 is a shitcoin

2025-02-18 16:32:20

100% this …
Even in their success case, tech bros and finance bros aren’t ready for the utility type returns. And that’s IF the regulatory world can protect it like utility infrastructure.
If open source wins then it’ll be akin to the shale revolution. Lowest cost producer wins…lots of bankruptcies. #note1k90…x3ew

2025-02-18 12:39:19

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Slightly different bot … cycle low vs. halving tracker.