Chris Liss

finding out what is true| www.chrisliss.com | www.realmansports.com | https://fountain.fm/show/g91yDXlvog8DcsaszgD8

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npub1dtf79g6grzc48jqlfrzc7389rx08kn7gm03hsy9qqrww8jgtwaqq64hgu0

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liss@getalby.com

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liss@getalby.com

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nprofile1qqsx45lz5dyp3v2neq0533v0gnj3n8nmflydhcmczzsqph8rey9hwsqprfmhxue69uhhg6r9vehhyetnwshxummnw3erztnrdaksz9rhwden5te0wfjkccte9ejxzmt4wvhxjmchglzqu

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Last Notes

2025-03-15 14:08:42

Was imagining the thinking of RFK’s family that disowned him for becoming HHS, like, “You’re trying to stop pharmaceutical and junk food conglomerates and from poisoning children? What the fuck is wrong with you!”

2025-03-10 08:56:14

There's a Buddhist story about a kid who is a great horseback rider, and everyone in the village says to the parents how lucky they are to have such a talented son. One day he falls off his horse, breaks his leg, and all the villagers lament how unlucky he is to break his leg. Then a war breaks out, and the other villagers’ sons are sent to die in it, but the kid with the broken leg can’t fight, so he survives.
The moral is obvious — that what seems like good luck is often bad and vice-versa.
Whenever I hear pending announcements of CBDCs I think of this. You can argue and explain decentralized, uncensorable, supply-capped money till you are blue in the face, but your impact will be zero compared to someone being unable to buy a plane ticket because the central bank deems him over his carbon allowance.
Christine Retard and her ilk are in the FA phase. They might be surprised by the FO one.

2025-03-10 08:09:04

She is a catalyst — I hope they try this experiment. It will radicalize millions.
#note1f35…ueaq

2025-03-09 21:49:54

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Bitcoin was cool only when it was for outsiders and misfits. Now it’s cringe. Better sell before it moons!

2025-03-07 14:31:13

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Will check it out, thanks. Bar for following someone on Nostr for me — one insightful post — has been pretty low.

2025-03-02 16:50:57

Some Argentine pesos, Zimbabwe dollars, Venezuelan bolivars, some gold, seashells,, bitcoin, Monopoly money, euros, etc. Just a basket of stuff, I can’t tell the difference.
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6ad3e2a34818b153c81f48c58f44e5199e7b4fc8dbe37810a000dce3c90b7740/e571ae0a22f0497d5191a24f8184b438c66011931e2d00e7c9fbd663baa3bdf5.webp

2025-03-02 16:45:21

Voted for MAGA, not MARA.
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6ad3e2a34818b153c81f48c58f44e5199e7b4fc8dbe37810a000dce3c90b7740/89df74ca63acdb2db310a531ecbaaa634375b1d6292e9dca3e8005991c430e5d.webp

2025-03-01 13:38:00

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should have bought a couple nakamotos with this

2025-02-28 18:12:36

Got this email today. Don’t think he listens to my podcast unless “disciplined” means buying OOTM MSTR calls like a donkey as it crashed down to 240.
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6ad3e2a34818b153c81f48c58f44e5199e7b4fc8dbe37810a000dce3c90b7740/f5e6c533de60c27cfbb40c71c5270b348b512e3a4206a773ca0e90204e68dc5c.webp

2025-02-28 13:36:00

It's been said the smallest minority is the individual, but another word for individual is artist.
The extent to which one is an individual, i.e., not part of a tribe, is the extent to which he is an artist.

2025-02-28 09:16:51

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I think there’s a chance we get some justice and/or an SBR, though I’m willing to live with it if we get neither. I’m just tired of the endless empty hype.

2025-02-28 08:52:48

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fine line!

2025-02-27 16:56:02

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Was patently demented in plain sight, revealing the lengths to which the Regime and its acolytes were willing to deny basic reality. This was a great service.

2025-02-27 16:51:02

I’m cool with getting rich. Totally fine with having more resources to allocate as I see fit. Truly believe I am a better capital allocator than the government or even most rich individuals. I see no virtue in having fewer resources to allocate, leaving more allocation up to others. I didn’t always feel this way, but I am confident in this belief now. I also realize not everyone feels this way, not even everyone who professes to. Many have been indoctrinated subtly or otherwise to believe wealth is evil. There is nothing wrong with thinking that, and there’s nothing wrong with being poor. But those who do think that will almost surely stay poor.

2025-02-27 13:24:11

Video version: https://rumble.com/v6pu1l8-one-week-off.html

2025-02-26 19:54:01

Second: Saw some carnivore maxis posting earlier about how fruit is bad for you, been bred to be extra sweet, etc.
I eat a lot of meat, and I find the absolutism and clarity of thought of carnivore appealing. But I don’t think it’s ultimately correct.
There’s an old Buddhist parable about two monks, sworn to celibacy, walking in a forest. They come across a pretty, young woman who needs help crossing a pond. One of the monks picks her up, carries her across, drops her off at the other side.
The monks walk for a while, the second one (who did not pick up the girl) seething. Finally, he can’t take it anymore, blurts out: “What the hell were you thinking back there at the pond?” First one replies: “Oh, the girl? I put her down at the other side of the pond, sounds like you’ve been carrying her the entire time.”
The issue isn’t whether he carried the girl, but the attachment to it. Do you really think eating an apple every day or some berries is going to severely harm a healthy adult? I smoke cigars — I suppose those are bad too. The point isn’t to avoid everything with sugar that could spike your blood glucose or require an insulin response. The point is not to be an addict, using cheap, available sugars as little dopamine rewards.
Enjoy eating some carbs if you like, or be carnivore if you like too. So long as you feel healthy and have energy, I suspect both are fine. But drugging yourself with fruit (or patting yourself on the back over your purity for avoiding it) is IMO the error.

2025-02-25 18:24:58

Farm to table
#note1ty0…07gr

2025-02-25 15:56:42

Friend of mine was on LSD once, was in the passenger seat of a car that went through a car wash. Said it was an incredible experience, deeply cleansing of his soul.
That’s how I feel about DOGE and the firing of these bureaucrats en masse.
The benefits of this parasite cleanse cannot be overstated.

2025-02-24 12:32:23

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The market provides an incentive not to dilute your shareholders for no reason. MSTR has a reason — to buy BTC accretively. If any company does it for no reason, the stock will tank, so they don’t do that. Unlike companies, shitcoins are infinitely dilutive but with no value accretion.

2025-02-24 10:41:03

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If issuance becomes dilutive instead of accretive, the price will tank.

2025-02-24 10:35:43

Playing around with NI these days, excited about the advances.

2025-02-23 09:45:53

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if you injected yourself multple times with ever self-replicating poison, I imagine privacy might be lower on the list!

2025-02-20 20:39:29

New Podcast:
https://rumble.com/v6n9083-do-nothing.html

2025-02-17 19:02:28

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Ashton Forbes goes into great detail about this. Not aliens, in his view, but advanced tech, long hidden from the public.

2025-02-17 09:02:59

Had an idea, before I forget:
Someone needs to build a tennis half-court/video game wherein you hit the ball into a wall/screen, and the game shows you on the screen where it would have landed (or whether it was out) and hits it back to you the way an opponent would.
You could choose your level from beginner to Djokovic (could program in all the greats and their various styles), and it would return the ball at the pace and with the spin they’d have hit it at. (I realize this would be a difficult programming task, maybe version 2.0).
But the key is you’d basically be able to play a video game tennis match but with all the strategy, exercise, skill, etc.

2025-02-16 13:08:45

Clip from latest podcast: reincarnation and reparations:
https://substack.com/profile/6400252-chris-liss/note/c-93669191

2025-02-13 14:43:22

https://fountain.fm/episode/04idZ4fLss1w7YlmdIBQ

2025-02-12 22:33:41

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I view the doctor mostly as the bouncer to a club. Inside the club are blood tests I want to order, but I have to convince the door guy to let me through.
(In the US, I just use Ulta, pick my own tests, but here in Portugal, you need to get the MD to sign off on it.)

2025-02-12 08:44:11

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I like them. Always make me more bullish. Scary thing would be a detractor who knew what he was talking about.

2025-02-11 15:25:44

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agree -- I wouldn't call eating “meddling”.

2025-02-11 14:20:28

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maybe he talked shit about Brigitte being a man

2025-02-10 12:17:27

Whenever “experts warn” you can be assured it’s a risk worth taking. Because if it the risk truly outweighed the reward, they wouldn’t need the “experts” to weigh in at all, they’d let the market sort it out.
The most benign way to think of the “experts” is they’re fucking mush — a bunch of midwits with zero alpha to offer, a good barometer of norm ignorance. That’s best case. Worst case is they purposely making sure people stay unhealthy, broke, unhappy and unfree.
#note17m4…ws9h

2025-02-10 12:07:47

Bullish af
https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6ad3e2a34818b153c81f48c58f44e5199e7b4fc8dbe37810a000dce3c90b7740/74307f7ec0bd4ac6e9c28f67c5a7d35d7e178b878ca2d6f413294ef67d58d256.webp

2025-02-10 08:51:22

CO2 is like cholesterol, something only the normies worry about.

2025-02-09 22:04:46

Might write an essay about how bad AI is for medical issues because it can never properly parse what’s true. It can never try a supplement or intervention and vet it personally. I can never then know which people are telling the truth and which are lying because it can only ever get results second hand.
It can have heuristics as to what to believe — most are GIGO and cite the fucking WHO and CDC — but even if someone with good intentions designed it, it would be hard for it ever to cross the chasm into reality.
Part of vetting is experimentation. Without it, you’re just on the outside looking in, figuring out who to believe.

2025-02-09 21:38:46

Bet the Eagles +1. Don't feel strongly about it. Wanted to bet Barkley for MVP but the odds were so bad (+175) I passed.

2025-02-08 09:45:13

The other thing about AI I despise, and this is true even of the open source free ones I’ve tried, is if you ask it whether the covid vaccine killed people, it spits out some bullshit from the WHO and CDC, and when you press it, it tells you “it’s not able to spread vaccine misinformation.” Fuck you.
I usually can get it to tell the truth somewhat by pretending we’re writing a movie script, but it’s fucking annoying that all the AI trainers are narrative compliant pussies. AI will be good for math and coding, but it’s going to be garbage for medicine and health if this doesn’t change.

2025-02-08 09:43:02

One thing AI is really good with is annoying tech issues that plague you from time to time. I had this issue with a new Mac keyboard where it kept putting these blue boxes around everything making it impossible to type without the text getting contracted inside the box. For a month I was switching browsers, toggling on and off between US and Portuguese keyboard settings, using the option key with the space bar to add a space — for God knows what reason that worked.
Then it occurred to me to screen shot the blue box, send it to Grok, and ask. It was like, just shut off the “full keyboard access” in the settings. Who would have thought full keyboard access was a bad thing? But apparently, that was the issue all along.
I know I’m a retard, and AI is bad at a lot of things but very good with retard-type tech stuff.

2025-02-07 13:24:06

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thanks

2025-02-06 23:19:03

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and thanks for the generous zaps!

2025-02-06 22:24:12

new podcast/video
I’ve Got My Own Problems:
https://rumble.com/v6hp7is-ive-got-my-own-problems.html

2025-02-05 08:29:32

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that's what I got. At first was disappointed there were lozenges and not pouches, but got used to it, put it in my gum like a pouch.

2025-02-05 08:22:56

Oddest thing happened recently -- I go running 3x per week, but for some reason last few months was feeling very stiff. Bending down to pick up @npub138y…aszc' dog shit was excruciating. It wasn’t like I had pulled a muscle, just something in my back/midsection felt very inflamed. Couldn’t really even stretch it out on the floor like I always would if I had a tight back.
Anyway, always experimenting with different supplements, dietary changes. Not sure if this was it, but @npub1x45…armt suggested some copper and B-12 a while back, ordered those when I was in the states, started taking them early January. Then ordered these nicotine lozenges he suggested, started those maybe 3 weeks ago.
Other day I noticed, the pain and inflammation in my back which was there for months was just gone. Can barely feel anything when I’m picking up after Oscar.
Don’t know whether it was the copper or the nicotine (suspect the latter for some reason), but feel like a million sats. (Saw some video on X that alleged nicotine gets rid of nano-particles, and while I never took the clot shot, I did get covid itself a few times.)
So appreciate it @npub1x45…armt if in fact that was the cause.

2025-02-05 08:09:39

Post-script: was very attentive in cooking it, didn’t want to screw it up, came out perfectly, crispy and seared on the outside, rare in the middle. Used only salt and butter, didn’t want to mess with the natural flavor.
It was great — daughter had two large pieces, more than usual. Was pretty rich though, with all the fat. @npub138y…aszc was begging, got some fat, but sorry, species discrimination is real, and he didn’t get any of the real meat.
Was it worth 178 euros? Probably not. But don’t regret doing it one time. Can’t belleve people buy that shit for 800/kg, assuming the guy wasn’t bullshitting me.
#note1h2m…a2yy

2025-02-04 23:06:19

TRUST THE EXPERTS
Jan, 2022
I’ve been told time and again to trust the experts, rather than my own research, knowledge and intuitions about matters of health. But who is telling me to do this? Largely it’s non-expert people who are following particular experts of their choosing. So plainly if I am to take their advice, I must ignore them, for they are not experts.
But if they are telling me, that means they believe I should heed their advice. On what basis? They must believe that while they are not experts at researching medical treatments, they are experts in judgment, i.e., experts in deciding what to believe and what not to believe, who to follow and not to follow.
How am I to decide if they are as expert as their logic implies? I could look at whether they have track records of being right in the past, whether they themselves are in good health, for example. But that would require me to be an expert in deciding who is an expert! Because if I deem them experts, but I lack the requisite expertise in expert-vetting, then by their own terms I should not trust myself to vet them.
The only solution to avoid being paralyzed by inaction then is to develop your own expertise in interpreting events rather trusting others to do it for you. While you might not be an “expert” right away, trusting one’s own judgment is the only way to get the requisite experience toward that end. Eventually, you will develop some acumen for sniffing out disingenuousness, reasoning from first principles rather than emotions and seeking truth rather than beliefs that comply with tribal edicts.

2025-02-04 18:38:48

Made an error at the butcher today, wife is pissed.
Doing my usual shop, butcher tells me the Wagyu beef is usually 800 euros per kilo, only 220 this week. I tell him it’s too expensive for me, I’ll pass.
Start having him load my bags with pork chops, steaks, salami with hazel nuts, bacon, etc. Start thinking, what if I get just half a pound for $55 as a treat. Okay, fuck it, I’ll do it, half.
Ask him for 500 grams in bad Portuguese. He cuts a slice, weighs it, it’s 400-odd grams. He asks, good? I said maybe one more slice. He cuts another thinner one, weighs it, packs everything up, gives me the bill which is like double the usual.
I check the receipt: 800 grams, 178 euros for the wagyu!
I was thinking half a *pound*, but I said *500 grams*, which is half a *kilo* then had him add a second slice.
Wife, who is super frugal, was pissed, but I’m searing that shit up tonight.

2025-02-04 09:24:01

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yeah

2025-02-04 09:22:53

Consider if the ES precedent were set, some of the Jan 6 prisoners might have been sent there. (Or elsewhere if where a leftist president, owned by the deep state, were more obliging.)

2025-02-04 09:21:31

Was lamenting the lack of back and forth on current events on nostr vs Twitter just now. There’s so much to comment on and interact with there, and much less here. But then I realized that’s an opportunity. If there’s less discussion on ideas, there’s probably more demand from ideas to come from individual npubs.
BTW, the idea of sending prisoners to El Salvador is really bad. Yes, it saves money and serves as a deterrent, but at the cost of constutional protects. Even convicted felons are protected by the US constiution from “cruel and unusual punishment” for which our system is (theoretically) accountable. ES would be basically a black hole in that respect.
Very bad idea.
BTW — Jan 6 prisoners might have an 8th amendment case too.

2025-02-03 07:59:20

What's the best open source AI you can download for free and use locally? (Don’t want to input my info into third-party servers.)

2025-02-02 17:56:13

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thanks -- much appreciated!

2025-01-31 21:23:14

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okay, so it's say under 10^15, and it can be any number, but how does it pick which number?

2025-01-31 21:14:59

Dumb question for the technically knowledgeable: how does the protocol determine what number the miners have to guess? IOW, each block needs to be guessed, and I’m assuming each “number” is random. But computers don’t do random very well.
Occurred to me with the solo miners winning the block reward last couple days — is it possible to game the protocol and narrow it down?

2025-01-31 20:21:25

They should be allowed into one, federal prison.
#note1kac…ww8a

2025-01-31 08:25:31

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needle in a haystack though

2025-01-29 18:40:22

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I once put raw liver, avocado, a raw egg, turmeric powder, black pepper and some other things into a blender, poured it into a ziplock, but the edge of the ziplock and dripped out dots on parchment paper which I froze. I ate them, wife and daughter didn’t want any part of it!
My kid is extremely strong willed, so much that her teachers and basketball coach complain to us that she doesn’t respect their authority and causes problems. I don’t care at all, but I tell her if she doesn’t want to get thrown out, she’ll have to go along with them to a degree.
Hard to get her to do things she doesn’t want, so we just try and create conditions that are healthy and trust her to not be an idiot when she’s out of the house.
She’s a beast — 5-6, strong as hell, plays on the under-16 basketball team at 12, pushes them around.
Knock on wood, everything in the world is precarious, but she seems to be doing okay, except for the glasses!

2025-01-29 17:46:35

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Think it's mostly genetics, but I don’t wear sunglasses anymore and wear blue-light blockers at night in front of the computer. Unfortunately, my nearly 13-YO daughter had to get glasses already!

2025-01-29 17:34:26

Ok, thought the hellthread was amusing for half a day. Now can people please stop responding to it?
One time I accidentally got added to a WhatsApp medical group (didn’t know the people, but someone added my number.) I politely ask them to take me off the thread, and someone said okay, but the messages kept coming.
So I got my then 4-YO daughter to type emojis into the phone for as long as she pleased.
They took me off in short order.
She’s almost 13 now, but she’d do it again if I asked her.

2025-01-29 10:42:04

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1. If you have people in the Substack ecosystem with credit cards, and they’re getting everything — videos, podcasts, letters — unless it’s mirrored completely, it’s better for them not to be switched. But there is a minority that would probably volunteer their emails for new/extra content that went out via nostr. If the entire ecosystem were in place here, I would just import the entire list in that case. But if it’s only newsletters (and no payments), I would make it opt-in, and do different content for those users.
2. Yes, Highlighter is good, and that’s a good point. No need to re-invent the wheel — could just compose there, send via npub.pro.
4. I’ll look into it — some of the video files are 2GB or whatever though.
And no problem — thanks for building these tools!

2025-01-29 08:37:19

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Like people who after the car was invented stopped walking much. They got out of shape. Just because we invent labor-saving machines doesn’t mean we should stop using our own faculties.

2025-01-29 08:35:21

It's also why AI (which operates in the realm of pure information) will never bridge the gap with the real world IMO. The real world is not made of 1s and 0s. It will always only be able to model it, no matter how accurately. Always the map, never the territory.
#note1epg…vgsg

2025-01-29 08:33:15

As Justine Bateman pointed out on Twitter, OpenAI is pissed DeepSeek stole their knowledge even though they stole all the training data and quite possibly killed the whistleblower who was going to spill the beans on it.
#note1dsz…h2az

2025-01-28 13:02:22

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just making a joke — would be very hard to do this

2025-01-28 12:41:49

California might secede and join the EU
#note1jv3…cvu0

2025-01-28 12:00:51

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Coin flip is 50/50, but it will never land half heads or half tails. It will be 100 one and zero the other And yet still it’s 50/50.

2025-01-28 10:54:22

I’m often tempted to list all the “conspiracy theories” out there and put a percentage on how likely I think they are to be true.
Like covid came from a lab (too obvious) is 99.99%. The moon landing was faked (20%), etc. We don’t know very much for sure, and these percentages would change as more information comes out.
Of course, putting numbers on it creates a false impression of precision when there is none. My take on the moon landing being fake is “plausible but not likely.” I just made up 20 percent. It might as well be 5 percent or 30 percent. I would be surprised if it were ascertainably verified as fake. But I would not be shocked — at least not anymore.
You will take criticism from both sides for doing this too. The normies will be like, LOL, you nut job, you really think there’s a 20 percent chance the moon landing was faked!
And then other people will be like, LOL, you credulous normie, you think there’s an 80 percent chance we had that tech in 1969 and haven’t been back since!
I don’t claim my numbers are correct. The only thing I know for sure is it’s not zero percent and not 100 either.

2025-01-28 09:06:24

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*At Napoleon in rags and the language that he used
Go to him now, he calls you, you can't refuse
When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose*

2025-01-28 08:46:52

Had lunch with some normies the other day. They’re talking about all the ways they optimize their tax situation. Then the topic of pensions came up and why they are taxed by the same government issuing them. Someone asked me, “Why should they be taxed?” And I said, “Well, I don’t think anyone should be taxed.” And the one of them shook her head and said, “No, people need to be taxed.”
And I thought about it, she was optimizing her own tax status. She surely would have optimized it to zero if she were able. And yet she believes “people need to be taxed.”
Such a disconnect.

2025-01-27 13:47:52

For a more powerful illustration of this point:
https://www.chrisliss.com/p/growth
#note10hv…yuyu

2025-01-27 13:15:57

If you look at the way functions generate large numbers, you can see the power of the function is much more important in the long run than the power of its argument.
For example, compare f(x) = 2x and f(x) = x^2. If x = 1, 2x is > x^2.
But over time the size of the x matters less than the power of the function.
If the 2x function has 100 as its x, f(x) is only 200. If the x^2 function has 50 as its x, f(x) is 2,500.
Instead of focusing on the x (the argument), you’re better off focusing on the power of the function.
That’s how I’m understanding why DeekSeek > OpenAI.

2025-01-27 12:35:38

The space between thoughts is where ideas come in.

2025-01-27 09:48:56

I've written more than 100 essays for my substack the last five years and said most of what I’ve had to say eight different ways. I often wonder if there’s value in re-stating things yet again from another angle.
It’s like the bitcoin maxis who podcast after podcast re-state the thesis with various guests, and maybe one framing clicks with a particular listener after other ones did not.
I could repeat myself 1000 different times in different ways.
There are a few major themes:
1. AI(x) is no match for Mind(x) over the long run because AI deals in symbols and Mind has access to real-world perceptions.
2. The difference between the faithful and the faithless is the former believe adhering to the truth is more important than incentives (earthy rewards) and for the latter there are only earthly rewards (incentives.)
3. Epistemic dereliction (not updating your priors in the face of compelling new evidence) is akin to being physically out of shape or neglecting to clean your house. It’s a fundamental duty of an adult, and those who shirk it are responsible for the adverse outcomes they suffer as a result.
4. Just outcomes exist, irrespective of your ideology or preference, and those outcomes are ultimately beneficial for everyone, even those most opposed to them.
5. Many things people take as true are context-dependent, i.e., they are only true so far as certain conditions hold. For example the efficient market hypotheis is only true when a sufficient number of market participants are making decisions independently. As soon as enough people donkey into the S&P and stop making decisions for themselves, the market is no longer efficient. Ironically the fewer people who believe in the EMH, the more true it is, and the more who believe it, the less true it is. The EMH therefore is an example of a proposition that oscillates from true to false over time. And there are many such propositions mistakenly taken as true.
6. Beliefs are habits that we instill to assuage doubt. The difference between the tolerant and intolerant is the ability to suffer doubt without needing to attack/blame/disparage others for holding beliefs contrary to our own.
I could probably list 20, but this is getting too long.

2025-01-26 19:34:18

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There is a scenario in which CB’s contractual obligations and his property rights are irrelevant. But on January 26, 2025, he owns it.

2025-01-26 19:33:21

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There is no such price, only the risk of him destroying the very market on which his stock is listed. The concentration of it is a different issue, but it’s spread out among many different shareholders.

2025-01-26 08:50:14

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If you buy a car and schedule a pickup for tomorrow, who owns it, you or the dealership?

2025-01-26 08:43:41

I know Saylor's gotten some criticism of late for saying “crypto” but talk is cheap, and actions speak.
Who is buying the top like an animal every time? Who is printing fiat system stock and debt to do so?
I don’t know how it ends because he’s using the financial system itself to bring in the very thing that will obsolete it, but the least of my concerns is whether he said the word “crypto.”

2025-01-25 18:39:21

When in doubt post

2025-01-24 21:59:33

I rage-joined
#note1qae…5xjv

2025-01-24 19:11:59

The big question is who co-opts whom?
Does the fiat system co-opt Bitcoin or is it sucked into the black hole.
I’m betting on the black hole.
#note12pt…3d0f

2025-01-24 18:50:06

If you believe the State owns and ultimately controls you, even if you hate it, you are a statist.
To extricate yourself from its influence to the greatest extent practicable, you have to see it as weaker than you are. The greatest threat to the state is not from those who hate it the most, but from those who in their innermost being deny its legitimacy at all.
The black pillers and the compliers IMO are but too sides of the same coin.
Avoid the black pill like you would avoid the NPC one.

2025-01-24 18:07:47

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I neither stand behind nor trust any of them. But Trump’s election was an obvious averting of total disaster. To act like it makes no difference whether vaccine mandates and CBDCs are illegal is not an honest appraisal of the facts. It’s futility porn.
NGU isn’t the goal, but the more NGU, the more power people who are largely in favor of peer to peer uncensorable money have. No one knows which way things will go — as I said, Trump could rug us in a million ways, and he’s already botching some things (shitcoin, Sam Altman fiasco) — but it could also turn out well because the zeitgeist is shifting. The problem with Whitney Webb isn’t that she’s bringing up possible dystopian outcomes, but that she acts like they are certain when they are not remotely so. And the effect is demoralization and ultimately capitulation IMO.

2025-01-24 17:54:19

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Problem with Whitney Webb is she never delivers the goods — nothing she’s reported has ever had any effect on anything. It’s just doom porn about how screwed we are.
And while we’ll have to wait and see re Trump’s second term (I’m optimistic but still well aware we could get rugged), it’s almost like she’s talking her book. Doom and futility being that book.
People are selling doom and futility right now, not buying.

2025-01-24 14:38:31

I consider myself fairly paranoid but this is next level.
#note14fh…rdhj

2025-01-23 22:05:12

Unpopular opinion: EO banning CBDC > SBR.
Bitcoin doesn’t need the SBR, it can compete on its own in a free market. But a CBDC is the end of free markets.

2025-01-23 21:48:07

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I hear you, it's been a very strong black pill the last 5 years.

2025-01-23 20:26:54

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ThInk you are under-estimating the effect of debasement for the fiat rich who support that system and also the massive effect of all the DEI administrators and CNN-types losing their salaries, purchasing power and influence over the next 1-2 years.
There is a shift in the zeitgeist right now that is seismic

2025-01-22 19:28:40

he doesn’t know he already lost
#note13u3…z09u

2025-01-21 19:35:44

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I understand that, but let’s say you’re 70, and your nephew holds the coins in cold storage. Allegedly. That’s also counterparty risk — maybe he took your funds and did something else with them.
People are not ready en masse to self-custody with the current tools, but MSTR surely is ready to put the stock and bond market’s capital into it.
So the question is do those things coopt bitcoin (fake paper bitcoin on legacy financial rails) or does bitcoin via MSTR and the ETFs swallow the financial system into its rails (held in cold storage by MSTR.)?

2025-01-21 18:18:27

Don’t know about “wrapped bitcoin” but as long as it’s not “paper” bitcoin, i.e, it counts against the $21M, I’m inclined to count it as “real.”
Purists bitch about all kinds of things, but I’m starting to think MSTR, ETFs, (and maybe even this wrapped bullshit) are just different custody solutions that come with trade-offs, one of which is counterparty risk.
People *should* act in their self-interest, do what will preserve their wealth, take care of their families. If they feel safer with Saylor holding the coins, fine. If they feel safer holding themselves, fine.
Either you believe in the tech or not. If the tech is as advertised, the limited supply and inability to censor should coopt the institutions and governments, not the other way around. If it’s easily capturable, once it’s in Saylor’s coffers, then it wasn’t really freedom tech to begin with.
They always say bitcoin is for enemies. They should add: “Even large ones.”

2025-01-21 14:52:08

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not my base case, but would be the ideal way to do it

2025-01-21 14:47:49

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Agree 100 percent

2025-01-21 13:44:11

Jokovic-Alcaraz match is good — rooting for the GOAT, but Alcaraz coming on in the 4th set.

2025-01-21 09:45:48

The Trump scam coins were disappointing, though, not only from the corruption angle but the stupidity one.
It caps the upside for positive change to some extent in my mind.
That said, I will not be black-pilled, and Trump’s election over the truly sick psychos who had run the world for the last 50-odd years is cause for great optimism.

2025-01-21 09:42:27

You think the cognitive dissonance is bad now, wait until conditions materially improve from the average American, and half the libs snap out of the mass media hyponosis. The other half are gonna fucking flip.

2025-01-21 09:18:01

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LOL

2025-01-20 13:42:15

Gotta wonder whether an 11th-hour preemptive pardon from a demented president is air tight.

2025-01-20 10:15:50

Pfizer should launch a mandatory injectable shitcoin.

2025-01-18 14:26:18

my rule re nostr is “whenever you’re contemplating a post you think might be stupid, post it anyway. There are a lot of retarded people out there who might appreciate it.”

2025-01-18 14:24:53

Hope everyone takes my posts for the microaggressions they are.

2025-01-18 11:25:10

People are like: “as a heterosexual white male, you can’t possibly understand the *lived experience* of a woman, person of color or gay person.”
And I’m like: “bitch, I post on behalf of my dog, and he’s not even the same species!”