Oliver Alexander

All Source INT Analyst watching Twitter burn from across the street.

[bridged from oalexanderdk.bsky.social on Bluesky by Bridgy Fed]

Public Key

npub17hfmfv7kmf7gnlrjxz3vqer8ezvs9kdhu59yrv9nr7yuvsuc3rlq8xfurw

NIP-05 Address

oalexanderdk.bsky.social@bsky-brid-gy.mostr.pub

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs0t5a5k0td5lyfl3erpgkqv3nu3xgzmxm72zjpkze3lzwxgwvg3lspaan4w

Author Public Key

npub17hfmfv7kmf7gnlrjxz3vqer8ezvs9kdhu59yrv9nr7yuvsuc3rlq8xfurw

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Last Notes

2025-04-09 17:57:57

The only real effect the tariffs have had is that the U.S. is now voluntarily paying 125% more for rare earth metals.
The same rare earth metals that Trump spent the last two months saying were the most vital resource in the world while failing to extort a deal out of Ukraine.

2025-02-28 06:17:04

The best part of a Trump presidency is watching his fans be forced to do constant 180s on fundamental political beliefs in order to continue to agree with a man who changes his mind every 45 seconds.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreifkw4nfh22x6oiptxt6gsynygah5l4nfmuqtxwhdoovr5eu3ats2y

2025-01-24 16:49:39

Some of these bot openers are just plain weird.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihta2ovhcgurodx3i7oyl77rmry23oehufx6cvnqrdqgealclhobm

2025-01-23 23:43:21

The success of Ukraine's OWA drone campaign has been pretty incredible since they started ignoring the Biden administration's "escalation management".

2025-01-22 06:57:43

Sparta is now heading to dock at Tartus to assist in the evacuation and join Sparta II.
I suspect one of the two Russian landing ships not visible on AIS may have finished loading equipment and has now opened up a space for the Sparta.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiacgieppivcnz2jga4qqyij6mna44vhgbjsvexv3hhcpmf5vzwdyy

2025-01-21 16:43:55

The Russian evacuation of Tartus begins.
After being in a holding pattern for over a week, the Sparta II has finally been allowed to dock at Tarth’s to evacuate the Russian equipment from the base.
This comes the day after Syria cancelled Russia’s 49 year lease of the port.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreih6gziftqo4qjqz5pjepgs3f4sonnxedvbuqcjqmh46nxyuusbtxi

2025-01-20 20:35:00

Just your casual Nazi salute from Elon.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreifejd6muxuen7o5padwmky3wj2midxjpkalvsua744ymil4sijiki

2025-01-20 16:06:03

Underligt, jeg må åbenbart ikke se ham.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreideqd5zoi22pxzkccle3juuam4uw5odg25fgk7ccxvtzktj6qbpse

2025-01-20 15:20:17

Hvad er der sket med Anders Puck her på Bluesky?

2025-01-19 21:53:15

Melania doesn’t even need to file for divorce in order to halve Trump’s assets.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiftjdsii2nqojw56eo22ugijjgq3vqemjezbzve3deq6hku23sski

2025-01-19 21:48:15

Trump coin just dropped 25% with the announcement of Melania coin.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiah5z2p5corozsnruwpluv3bwhnrmzibim4qbunqci3igwimchsiq

2025-01-19 21:04:14

Given that they are still sailing around outside Tartus, the docking at Tartus currently seems like the least likely option.

2025-01-19 17:51:51

Millions of dollars flow into Trump’s meme coin from China and now he wants to make a deal to keep TikTok alive in the U.S.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreibjl43imzadjho3j33lnq6p26cfygurto2bgglpnlqlom27awpe7q

2025-01-19 10:41:47

They were so bad at their job that they didn’t even park the username of the fake account they used in the screenshot.
I now own the username.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreigzpferej2byxhagdpe3fztbnuzmvxuhlggtrm2mngd6gkb4pa64q

2025-01-19 10:40:57

TASS is now running with this lazy Russian propaganda
It comes from this "screenshot" of a tweet by an account that doesn't even exist.
The text is clearly translated to danish and not written by a native danish speaker.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiffoxfiz3zfs4bcd5ko6i32llejmshr3ia2kxjtjqcqyv6rb5xvhm

2025-01-18 12:17:47

According to Al Araby, Syria has banned the import of goods manufactured in Russia, Israel and Iran.
Not looking good for Russia’s chances of keeping their bases in Syria.
تعميم للمعابر والمنافذ.. سوريا...

2025-01-17 12:42:17

An overlooked reason for Syria delaying Russia's evacuation.
The expulsion of Russia from Syria is a key piece of leverage in Syria's negotiations with the EU to lift sanctions. If Russia leaves on their own accord prior to, Syria loses that leverage.

2025-01-16 10:57:22

Looks like this Russian S400 TEL finally successfully intercepted something.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiamd2x6nnwuugqspbw27bx3oyjpcjkyemdgg56zoafdpsterjvpbu

2025-01-14 14:19:45

Sources: Lavrov is beside himself. Driving around downtown Damascus begging (thru texts) Erdogan's family for address to Al-Sharaa's home

2025-01-13 17:25:57

The Sparta II will join the Sparta off the coast of Tartus within the hour.
The tanker General Skobelev is likely sailing directly behind the Sparta II.
Now the Russian evacuation can begin as soon as the Syrian government gives docking permission to the vessels.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreifkn6sxbgkrgqkx7zpkyxle7v3dzjkr6lgihdkxppyxizucacuwva

2025-01-13 08:02:16

We have now had the annual post New Year drop in weekly household expenses for the average Russian family.
Unfortunately for them, Week 1 in 2025 was 27.1% more expensive than Week 1 in 2024.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreia3r2ccxxuwdoevqwftkcuxcdkugohsle3fh5stefcfasvdqlofma

2025-01-12 23:28:05

The fact that the richest man on earth is paying someone to play a video game for him around the clock, so that he can pretend to be one of the best players in the world to his Twitter followers would be hilarious if it wasn’t so incredibly sad.

2025-01-12 17:06:31

The Sparta II, General Skobelev and Baltic Leader are now all less than 24 hours away from arriving at Tartus.
The pressure is on for Russia to find a way to enable their evacuation that avoids having 6 ships spending days/weeks in a holding pattern just off the Syrian coast.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreide4sl2zxvikoovbfrzgm4lkr7r7xvyblk74lelrbu47yciic5hga

2025-01-12 16:32:43

Den største trussel mod det danske forsvar i 2025 er ikke Rusland, men at denne her kommer til Danmark.
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2025-01-12 15:02:39

What on earth are you doing now little Sparta?
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiceevdazvbyvoaqy3o6swez3pzufmeor6h6twcwmmn3av547wxaae

2025-01-12 12:10:57

The Sparta off the coast of Tartus has stopped its usual holding pattern and started moving very slowly.
Not saying it has happened, but another "accident" would be hilarious.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidvhjeixzfeq4z5otqc22mk7c5r6krsp2lvpyzx7y5o6foeuft5ea

2025-01-12 00:30:11

The Sparta has once again entered Syrian territorial waters, but is continuing its holding pattern approx. 5NM off the coast and has not been allowed to enter Tartus.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidarbbaop6fv3ejsihp5y5du2ijpxb32vcizhaozandgxi4dkpadm

2025-01-12 00:29:47

The Sparta II and General Skobelev likely resupplied underway off the coast of Malta a few days ago.
All three ships are now back en route to Tartus and set to arrive in approx. 36 hours.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihfykvvecjzyxhjsj244vg6kxip2isgaamswtl36e3phdbouybpom

2025-01-12 00:29:09

It appears that the Russians are expecting it to take a while for them to be allowed to evacuate their forces from Tartus.
The Baltic Leader is once again heading for Tartus after stopping in Alexandria earlier today to resupply.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidsi5vivrpeiunxhlrs72dsqqhpywdreq7jawymjqbz66yfu2zzmi

2025-01-10 13:21:09

We have now reached the point where Russians are putting anti-drone FPV cages on FPV drones in an attempt to stop Ukrainian AD FPV drones taking them out.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreib3qlyicfx2drtvl336vetikka2qndbeedy7ftvdobtq3oy32h3fq

2025-01-10 10:37:23

Peak Russia is having a Mediterranean naval base that your ships are no longer allowed to use.
It is now over a month since the last Russian ship docked at Tartus.

2025-01-09 17:41:20

The Russian Sparta went from sailing in a holding pattern 5NM off the coast of Tartus, to 16NM the exact same day that the new Syrian government got a coast guard.
Coincidence or were they ordered to wait in international waters?
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreigjawlvzmlolayrvt26igvotlvve4jq3omdqs4vdodhx355xodnoy
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2025-01-08 22:16:13

Two of the six Russian S400 TELs that recently arrived at the Tartus port for evacuation are randomly visible in the background of this image of a meeting between Syrian power company employees and officials at the port.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiduaoamljkcutgbytgngmmfgpzxckidzkp2icvdxyrcoqcbv7aypu

2025-01-07 19:31:30

Trump in 2026 after placing a 200% tariff on Ozempic
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2025-01-06 17:51:37

35 hours after arriving at Tartus, the Russian Sparta continues sailing aimlessly 5NM off sure, waiting for permission from the Syrian government to dock.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk/post/3lezuwu7kes2z
#nevent1q…3zkp

2025-01-06 00:29:44

The Russians not having gotten permission from the Syrian government to dock their ships at Tartus to evacuate helps explain why we are seeing so many evac flights out of Khmeimim. It is their only way out of Syria at the moment.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreic3jbdis54pw54dswh6j6ruan4zpbpvnm5m3hqcbtfw7dsbzir53q

2025-01-05 19:04:35

The Russian's week in Syria:
1. Syrian forces set up checkpoints outside Khmeimim to inspect every vehicle in and out
2. Their only sub in the Med, the Novorossiysk, is forced to return to Russia
3. Their first evac vessel, Sparta, hasn't received permission to dock in Syria.

2025-01-02 22:01:56

Russian Il-76 (RF-78837) takes off from Khmeimim as part of the ongoing evacuation of the base under the cover of a Ka-52.
Russia is continuing to cover every takeoff with a Ka-52, indicating that they still fear a possible attack on their aircraft.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihblrpobuy777cvvt2cdglxiroo2uw6hs4td4e7z57ebrky4pyx6e

2025-01-02 00:06:54

The temporary hangars at Al Khadim, Libya are currently being dismantled.
Likely in an effort to expand the limited apron space at the air base in response to Russia’s massively increased activity to the base, and likely future activity,
📷: Google Maps image to show hangars
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidjdd3ofbgmzwqbbptpqhx77p2k4hn6nvcxu2cefao5raycg7bqva

2025-01-01 17:44:48

If this was a movie, the foreshadowing would have seemed heavy-handed and forced.
Predict 2025 in a single video:
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2025-01-01 12:17:18

“Single digit inflation” is totally realistic when Russia raised its minimum cost of living by 14.8% today.

2024-12-30 20:04:49

Looks like Russia has begun disassembling more helicopters at Khmeimim for transport out of Syria.
I suspect that some of the recent An-124 flights out of Syria have contained large parts of the Russian helicopter fleet from Syria.

2024-12-29 11:17:10

The U.S. needs a healthcare system that does not threaten to bankrupt its citizens if they experience a minor medical emergency. If our great ally the U.S. can't commit to improving these conditions, Denmark will have to step in.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreifk2qxchwlqjb4bic62ysgck7dymvhgz6ot5jahfauoln65xrv7a4

2024-12-27 22:56:51

Waiting for the mass exodus of the far right to Bluesky in pursuit of “free speech” as part of the hilarious ultimate twist ending to 2024.

2024-12-27 20:35:31

Syrian HTS forces are establishing checkpoints around the entrance to Khmeimim Air Base in order to stop any Assad loyalists from escaping into the base.
If you told Putin his base in Syria would effectively be under siege two months ago, I don’t think he would have believed you.

2024-12-27 20:15:37

This Russian An-124 is returning from Al Khadim Air Base in Libya for the second time in 24 hours.
ADS-B data is unreliable where it is atm, but I expect that it will return to Khmeimim Air Base in Syria to load up for another run to Libya.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreigtnhgvsagwpfczgvp7b53yy7s6ii3l3smiuhgvk44asyo6oahkme

2024-12-27 19:49:48

We now have 2 confirmed Russian An-124 flights to Libya from their base in Syria. The only reason for these flights is the movement of large amounts of heavy cargo consistent with Russia withdrawing from Syria
Russia will not operate bases in both Libya and Syria at this level
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreicix2qebtegqgyuss3mjv6hveksknz6lnitwdjrvcn4ghdpiidec4

2024-12-27 18:01:01

The other app is in absolute shambles right now and it is absolutely hilarious to watch.
Let them fight.
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2024-12-27 17:20:40

Trump’s former mistress having a falling out with his current one.
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2024-12-27 15:38:24

Looks like the Russian An-124 is making another trip from Khmeimim to Al Khadim.
The next satellite images of Al Khadim will be very interesting.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiaqydulb452fcy56rmpfimerfowu7e2gyrbv7ueni6iftmstdmwvi

2024-12-27 13:32:03

Elon has angered the far right to the point that they have now started the “Secret Jew conspiracy” about him.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreignmcti4bdkqczcrg3tdioy3pdkgwlrleojadi32g4lgxb7zlcley

2024-12-27 12:37:28

Looks like the Ukrainians have successfully taken over Russia’s grain deal with Syria, effectively removing the last piece of leverage Russia had in trying to keep Tartus and Khmeimim.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiaofo3fh742ukwaazrkq7wehr4ewlv7dhnkhp6jmdeycjzqtv2q44

2024-12-27 01:56:32

Watching all the people Elon spent the last year pandering relentlessly to turn on him in under 24 hours is hilarious.
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2024-12-27 01:17:20

The Russian An-124 is now returning from Al Khadim to Khmeimim.
If flights like this continue, it will be safe to say that they have set up their heavy air bridge from Syria to Libya and have begun their relocation.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk/post/3leacxthy3c2y
#nevent1q…980x
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2024-12-26 20:31:36

The first Russian An-124 flight from Khmeimim Air Base to Al Khadim Air Base in Libya has now landed.
This is the first concrete evidence of the Russian military moving heavy equipment to Libya from Syria and a clear sign that they are abandoning Syria for Libya.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreigjsyphozmgb6uocd5juna3wz3clnjgiijoq3uhguelupu2ovm7ue

2024-12-26 18:22:33

We may now have our first An-124 flight from Khmeimim Air Base, Syria to Libya since the beginning of the Russian evacuation.
It will be interesting to see where it lands and what it is carrying.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreibu5xkedkyyhlpsej7egeq3jznyfxuftmv4t6ikx4rieenou4kouu

2024-12-26 13:29:43

Confirmation from Azerbaijani government sources that the aircraft was shot down by Russia and they would not allow it to land at a Russian airport.
I suspect they might have hoped that the aircraft crashed in the Caspian Sea.
The skill of the pilots however saved many.

2024-12-26 13:17:54

The fact that Russia shooting down ANOTHER civilian airliner isn’t a bigger story is honestly wild.

2024-12-25 16:19:41

Life jacket from the aircraft pierced by shrapnel/debris prior to the crash, after the aircraft had diverted from Grozny.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreibpyecyyv6i6323passrm7xstvjnowpirrrmp5lkzlzhyg33zk45a

2024-12-25 16:13:39

No visible signs of a massive uncontained turbine failure on the footage we have of the aircraft just prior to the crash.
Both engines appear to be intact.
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https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidynhkdbxstikk6ecqoknplg3si5ys3upbg722wosnpbczev3en5e

2024-12-25 15:57:05

If the damage was cause by bird strike or debris during the crash, I would expect a lot more dents on the fuselage around the holes.
It appears that every singe piece of debris that hit the aircraft had enough kinetic energy to punch through the skin and not just dent it.

2024-12-25 15:50:11

Visible damage to the port side flap hinge fairing prior to the crash.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihbanbgiajrmk4kyist6tpqrqheosisk3klhjsdd63ve4bxpaxyae

2024-12-25 15:50:11

All the videos of the Azerbaijan Airlines flight showing the damage show holes in the wreckage have entry holes on the port side and exit holes on the starboard side, likely with a slight angle from below.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiai6jamhznwc4aaw3jkjcxpnwmxam52pevgaze5i52g36orjjxsba

2024-12-25 15:50:11

Here one can see the difference between the port and starboard side of the aircraft’s vertical stabilizer.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiazzxgwoy5ok5hc4hatdci5xnklvryuyj4qij3e4y5yk44nlhhpsy
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreih7gbzg2szlk44su73solkxqqfkw4dstgejx3re45qqnvgtseg2pe

2024-12-25 13:42:18

The Sparta II and General Skobelev are being shadowed by the HDMS Freja.
The Soobrazitelny reentered the Baltic 3 days ago after escorting the Sparta south of the British Isles.
She is likely currently escorting the Sparta II and G. Skobelev.
Photo: Kurt Pedersen
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihatj4bq4rejlghlskww2j7m57aukmvngsw5gsavq56frfc3v2wii

2024-12-25 12:18:39

The sanctioned Russian tanker General Skobelev left St. Petersburg on the 22nd December. It has now joined up with the Sparta II and both are "officially" sailing to Port Said, Egypt.
Unofficially, they are both almost certainly heading to Tartus to assist in the evacuation.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiaom2hxkbqw7jgfqcjsfm4hzlc6sk4sk2qqhgjicg73mxhna77ioq

2024-12-24 18:14:08

The Sparta II has just left Baltiysk with a destination set for Port Said, Egypt.
It is very likely headed to assist in the evacuation of the Russian forces from Syria.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreih5dx2y3swzb2pmaakqwwmbgea25udg3e4hw6fkbzt4qegkp7cvne

2024-12-24 12:45:37

Sure would be a shame if another Russian vessel decided to have sudden unintended buoyancy issues.

2024-12-24 01:21:46

The loss of these two hatches will delay construction of the Project 10510 significantly.

2024-12-24 01:21:46

The Ursa was carrying two Liebherr 420 mobile cranes for the harbor in Vladivostok that is heavily backed up due to a lack of cranes and two 45-ton hatches for the construction of the new Project 10510 nuclear powered icebreaker.
obl.ru/pressa/news/...
Поднять 600 тонн? Легко! - пре...

2024-12-24 01:21:46

In the same image you can see the two 45-ton hatches at the rear of the vessel covered in a blue tarp.
These are the two hatches designed to cover the nuclear reactor on the Project 10510. They can be seen directly in front of the smokestack on the mode.
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2024-12-24 01:21:46

In this image you can see both of the the cranes, as well as grab buckets for bulk handling at the harbor in Vladivostok at the front of the vessel.
The loss of these cranes will severely hurt loading/unloading times in Vladivostok.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreianalf27ozzw4nautkh7sglzsqrfcxj5ey4arhmn4ix23ddqocmym

2024-12-24 01:21:46

🧵The Ursa Major was heading to Vladivostok and not en route to aid in the evacuation of Tartus.
Given cargo it carried, this is in fact even worse for Russia than if it had been heading to Tartus.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreianalf27ozzw4nautkh7sglzsqrfcxj5ey4arhmn4ix23ddqocmym

2024-12-24 00:01:42

Will be interesting to see if the Sparta II gets dispatched from Batliysk in the coming days.
If it does, it means the Ursa Major was headed for Tobruk or Tartus to aid in the evacuation. If it doesn't it might mean that the Ursa was in fact en route to Vladivostok.

2024-12-23 23:25:23

Spanish media reporting that the Ursa Major has sunk after an explosion in the engine room earlier today, which caused a list.
14 out of 16 crew members were rescued with 2 still missing.
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2024-12-23 23:25:23

t.co/LoxVfmQ6Fh
https://www.laverdad.es/murcia...

2024-12-23 23:15:24

The Sparta is now within 4NM of the last reported position of the Ursa Major.
The Spanish Navy vessel and SAR tug remain in close proximity.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreid5ui45oomeaeubb4r4s2kfbhz3a6bluldorjl5pdpjb7g63jxg2a

2024-12-23 21:58:16

Earlier today a Frontex DA62 out of Malaga also showed an interest specifically in the Ursa Major
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidb7ru3zmdn7qh32jtsmkhrzov6qvh4csh2ofqyyh2qz5msdm4wcu

2024-12-23 21:36:08

The Sparta is now heading directly for the stationary Ursa Major, which still has a Spanish naval vessel and SAR tug nearby.
At the current speed and heading, the Sparta will reach the Ursa Major's position in approx. 2 hours.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreifw7np65kxvgw7hxyvouvny66bnct54dyekmfyeggsdj4cfhyb3o4

2024-12-23 20:21:23

The next few hours will be interesting. The Sparta and her two Russian Navy escorts are currently about 20NM west of the Ursa Major and closing.

2024-12-23 20:10:31

A Spanish Navy vessel (225988522) just popped up on AIS alongside Ursa Major.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiget22l5rk74cipmy5ljl7bkjw5aorxli5o465vzxcixzapxw5vk4

2024-12-23 15:37:25

The difference in strategy by scammers between X and Bluesky is an interesting insight into the minds of the people on each platform.
On X scammers send messages promising cryptocurrency
On Bluesky scammers send fake donation links to support civilians affected by wars.

2024-12-22 18:51:21

Unsure if intentional, but the fact that they managed to stay hidden from public view until after Putin’s New Year’s event allowed Russia to keep up the appearance of not being in the process of evacuating from Syria

2024-12-22 18:15:27

First confirmation of the Ivan Gren and a second Ropucha class entering the Mediterranean.
It was reported a week ago by Ukraine’s HUR that these two ships had departed and were heading to Tartus to evacuate the base.
x.com/key2med/stat...
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiai5d3eb4vrbjjofmrq4uqmexynbkop5rshlc2j42qd55narnhfyi
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreieaeouq7p7wtwgk3sbp73gc2xfgtscppnrrumd3fdbm5kjpsv2wjy

2024-12-22 14:15:36

Watching the Russian Central Bank just give up on trying to slow down inflation after having become the scapegoat for the increasing financial difficulties in the country is quite amusing.

2024-12-19 16:12:51

Putin proposing a “duel” between western air defence systems and Oreshnik while his own air defence is losing “duels” to this thing multiple times a week.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreid4hq43getl5t5dgrt5dq7eutmbyqkzc6zte433nvvhfaadazcnbu

2024-12-19 12:03:20

Yeah, Russia has no current deal to keep its bases in Syria.
Every statement by Putin today is aimed at saving face in front of the Russian people when they eventually leave.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreiamo2vdiyi4trf255o2v5kbjqeng5ajcktwythouewbzrf7m7j7xi

2024-12-19 11:26:56

If any form of deal was reached about keeping their military bases in Syria, I would expect a clear answer as it would be a major win for Russia.
This ambiguity is a sign that they are either leaving or have no deal in place.

2024-12-19 11:26:36

When asked about keeping military bases in Syria, Putin responded that "many Middle Eastern countries" want them to keep their bases, but that Russia would "have to think about it".
This sounds very much like angling to make leaving Syria Russia's decision.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreih7qkxkxnyfrax5mjjvzroue76ok72itzmylpy42rs5j62hw5lqvy

2024-12-19 09:56:11

Even Putin acknowledged that inflation in the Russian economy is an alarming signal today.
He lied however and claimed that the average Russian’s disposable income has grown. Romir data shows that disposable income has dropped from around 30% to 20% so far this year.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihviii7n7w4enhanmtx4gux5ryrfegik76kmdbphgz2ujvq44uhby
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreih2hpukeb2smxeuzf652zgiiy34xsp6w3qetlb3duobqg4hbgcq54

2024-12-17 22:30:11

Advertisers on X have devolved from actual Fortune 500 companies, to people that make actual Nazi memorabilia.
And he wonders why advertising revenue is plummeting.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihmnmpjgdpdq5p5kzie5bd4d46byt3dsffsfma2uzasb5kiulu4lu
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreig5koklxfsbsdb4hwace2taagrvasisl7t5hxfwpadha7y5fgbhiy

2024-12-17 17:05:54

Russia is preparing to ship out a huge amount of equipment from Tartus in the coming weeks. All signs point to them packing up shop in Syria and beginning their withdrawal or repositioning to Libya.

2024-12-17 16:01:26

Al Arabiya just showed dozens of (if not 100+) Russian military vehicles parked at Tartus at this time waiting to be evacuated.
Tartus is very very crowded at this time.

2024-12-17 15:14:42

All buildings need to live up to now are the Ministry of Construction's very low minimum standards.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihm7ln4y2ygg2lrhnu54hz7dgcixmrnh3tva6ppqfxktbv6dlym2i

2024-12-17 15:14:19

Property developers in Russia now no longer need to deliver buildings that live up to the technical regulations and can use their own "finishing standards" instead
Shareholders can also only receive max 3% of the contract price in compensation if it doesn't live up to standards
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreihs7d52oros6hzz5mqs3u4vxpeza2tv7p2ojyhlvgvpuicmm4bayy

2024-12-17 06:22:52

Slowly at first, then all at once.

2024-12-16 20:11:52

Within a day or two we should be able to see increased activity at Tobruk, Libya if the Russians have in fact decided to abandon Tartus.

2024-12-16 20:07:40

CNN states that according to U.S. officials Russia has begun moving naval assets to Libya as part of withdrawal from Syria.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreictb47gtoqs34lvv2pz44sf34bhr7ioq23smmotsfienbcwrygv3u

2024-12-16 13:44:00

More and more pointing towards the Russia/HTS deal to keep their bases has fallen apart.
1. Russia suspending grain shipments on the 13th
2. Sparta and Ursa Major setting sail two hours apart on the 12th
3. Russia allowing Assad to release a statement calling HTS terrorists.
x.com

2024-12-16 08:44:23

At the end of October, the major news story was rental prices in Moscow reaching historic highs.
At that point, the price had already increased by 70% since early 2023.
There is no sign of this slowing down, if anything the rate is increasing.
https://lionsmane.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:re24z43mpixzjrgazz45yjuk&cid=bafkreidcjgkejfgp6sy6bbi7mokmi5qa7pathhld3yg4t5w6mfigosiwg4
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