PlanB

twitter.com/100trillionusd

Creator of the stock-to-flow model

Public Key

npub15wcvuhts6rdj9zzhq6etru2yc6ry5ljg9zk070u0q89xk065452sjvqy0q

NIP-05 Address

planb@planbtc.com

NIP-57 Address

covetedllama76@walletofsatoshi.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs28vxwt4cdpkez3ptsdv4379zvdpj20eyz3t8l878srjnt8a2269gprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wdmksetjv5hxxmmdqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wvfskueqjcphdj

Publishing to

relay.noswhere.com

relay.nostr.band

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub15wcvuhts6rdj9zzhq6etru2yc6ry5ljg9zk070u0q89xk065452sjvqy0q

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-02-08 16:34:02

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done!

2024-02-08 13:25:25

Adding 2% bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio vastly improves performance. But most investors are too focused on Sharpe-ratio (based on st.deviation). They see that Sharpe declines a bit. Calmar-ratio (based on drawdown) is a better metric and it improves a lot! Using Calmar: ditching stocks and bonds entirely and invest 4% in BTC while holding 96% in cash, yields superior investment performance. It will take years for large traditional investors to change their risk perspective from st.deviation to drawdown and their risk/return perspective from Sharpe to Calmar. Perspective matters. https://m.primal.net/HbSt.png

2024-02-08 11:16:54

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hmm
and the html is correct like this right?:
{
"names": {
"PlanB": "a3b0ce5d70d0db22885706b2b1f144c6864a7e4828acff3f8f01ca6b3f54ad15"
}
}

2024-01-05 12:24:40

Thinking of udating and reviewing these 8 charts monthly on youtube, as a short market overview.
https://youtu.be/3We9I_Cs4Cs?si=5lP6FVvT91vEuJhp

2024-01-04 08:44:31

Hackers tried to gain access to my twitter account today.

2023-07-29 15:10:27

New PlanB video! "Price is what you pay, value is what you get". $100k - $1m bitcoin?
https://youtu.be/iuf69tureKc

2023-07-15 18:40:09

Bitcoin $40,000-%50,000 at April 2024 halving? New planB video:
https://youtu.be/vmIlDbTgFYs

2023-06-24 17:49:23

NEW video on YouTube!
https://youtu.be/GJXl_bCQMKc

2023-06-03 11:20:27

Bitcoin Realized Return is positive (green) for the 5th month in a row. Average cost price of May sellers was $24.6k
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxpCPLkWwAEsiWs.png

2023-05-30 18:50:55

Some think S2F model is invalidated/broken because EMH, laser eyes, demand, autocorrelation, 100k, cointegration
Others are watching S2F trading rule and waiting for 2024 halving to bring profits once again (like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings did before)
Time will tell who is right
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxXeaxCXoAcIKET.png

2023-05-11 21:58:21

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Thank you @npub1tsg…htk4 but can you make the improved code for me?

2023-05-11 21:32:41

@npub1tsg…htk4 what do you think the price of bitcoin will be at the 2024 halving?

2023-04-26 15:43:35

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fuo7sl9X0AMcm1i.jpg
Let's take USD out of the equation.
Bitcoin (BTC) priced in ounces of gold (XAU).
Will 2023 be another outlier or revert to model?🔥

2023-04-24 18:43:00

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~80% below the top?

2023-04-24 09:04:54

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuN5rEVWAAAKDc1.jpg
Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.

2023-04-24 09:00:52

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuP9ZyZXoAA-u1Z.jpg
Metcalfe's Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2)
S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3)
So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2)
Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin    S2F
Probably nothing🔥

2023-04-19 07:56:29

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft7l7qcWYAAJBEw.jpg
#Bitcoin    April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60).
1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)?
2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)?
3) will S2F trading rule (see chart) still work?

2023-04-19 07:54:31

#Bitcoin   
Jan 27, 2021: $29K
Feb 21, 2021: $58K (~2x in 25 days)
---
Jul 20, 2021: $29K
Sep 6, 2021: $52K (~2x in 47 days)

2023-04-12 13:17:15

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1584883797061152768?t=a7lGlLdfnDTI2iXcLKkEIA&s=19
✅️ $21k
✅️ $24k
✅️ $30k
*25 Oct 2022

2023-04-07 11:16:06

https://youtu.be/DMe8_hZP98o
New PlanB video on YouTube 🔥

2023-04-06 08:22:05

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs82YRUX0AEpH59.png
NEW chart: #Bitcoin market stages
🔵 stage 1: early bear
🟢 stage 2: late bear
🟡 stage 3: early bull <- we are here
🔴 stage 4: late bull
This is my favorite chart after S2F, based on 1 on-chain variable. Not prediction, but detection. If you like this stuff, I will update.

2023-03-30 08:59:40

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsa-1uVXwAAx3oJ.png
73% of all (on-chain) #Bitcoin is in profit (green)

2023-03-24 09:54:02

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Not really meant as prediction, more valuation, like s2f. Metcalfe and s2f models are for roughly understanding why/how adoption and scarcity affect price.

2023-03-23 22:03:47

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5_keiWYAgaqpx.png
Current bitcoin adoption is ~1%
Adoption from 1% to 10% will be as fast as from 0.1% to 1%, as per the s-curve 1/(1+exp(a)) .. less than 10 years!
And yes, there is a link between adoption% and price (Metcalfe's law). The vertical is coming.

2023-03-23 11:51:44

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5t3nXWIAAv5O9.png
Of course banks & governments hate bitcoin!
Just like the horse industry hated cars
Just like the music industry hated MP3
Just like the telecom industry hated VOIP

2023-03-22 15:44:23

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr0qi1tWcAMXr5f.png
Momentum is real

2023-03-19 17:17:24

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrmIvUYWAAEpuCW.jpg
Bitcoin RSI > 50 .. bull market confirmed🚀

2023-03-19 17:15:49

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrlbphEXsAAmOp1.jpg
Trust in (central) banks is broken. Fiat system is compromised and weaponized (cut countries off Swift, freeze accounts, kill industries). Fiat money lost money functionality.
Bitcoin is math (ECDSA+SHA256+P2P) thus doesn't need trust. Bitcoin also uses less energy than banking!

2023-03-14 17:26:40

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMCi5eWwAMofY5.png
Btc > 200wma > realized price 🚀

2023-03-14 17:17:45

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Talk to a bitcoiner in your friends and family circle. Probability is high that some are willing to trade 1 or 2 btc for cash (or a car etc)

2023-03-13 15:48:31

Bitcoin price is the best measure of adoption

2023-03-13 13:11:46

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Yes we are at that point. I know many people who already are at that point .. for years

2023-03-13 12:58:44

We do not need banks
We do not need on/off-ramps
Just start asking #bitcoin for your products & services
Just start using products that can be bought with BTC
Just stop using banks and fiat (USD, EUR etc)

2023-03-07 20:30:55

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Yes one of the disadvantages of being anon is that I can't go to conferences, unfortunately because I love f2f meetings..

2023-03-07 08:52:23

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Huh, how can you lose followers? They are following your public key, how can relays change that?

2023-03-06 21:43:07

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How do I know which relays exist, and which to pick?

2023-03-06 21:36:19

My experience with paid relays: I tried nostr .wine (18,888 sats) and eden .nostr .land (5000 sats) next to my 12 free relays (e.g. damus, nos) and it makes no noticeable difference. Wine is at least relaying many messages. Eden does absolutely nothing, zero messages relayed. So, idk, maybe I do something wrong here.. All tips/help is welcome!
https://i.imgur.com/43bApwK.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eYsDFDO.jpg

2023-03-06 15:12:18

After March 2024 halving, bitcoin will be the scarcest asset in the world.
https://i.imgur.com/H9bDdsv.gif

2023-03-02 11:54:43

70% of all bitcoin is in profit. More detailed analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY&t=12s
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqNjHbNXsAIEWFI.png

2023-03-01 15:01:21

If bitcoin price jumped from $0 to $20k during 1% adoption .. then what will further adoption from 1% to 50% do with bitcoin price?
https://i.giphy.com/media/XHTuwW3v4O8NLAek2T/giphy.gif

2023-03-01 11:20:13

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Hmm I just paid nostr.eden.land 5000 sats but nothing happens.. feels scammy

2023-03-01 11:03:13

I am not using payed relays (only standard relays on iris and amethyst), should I and how does that work?

2023-03-01 09:38:47

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IMO Nov 15.5k was the bottom

2023-03-01 09:22:14

Bitcoin February closing price $23,145
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqH7QXuWYAAHRoq.png

2023-02-28 14:40:29

Bitcoin S-curve .. vertical incoming
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqDydXXXgAEfwou.png

2023-02-27 19:30:36

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impossible IMO, because bitcoin can not pass the Howey test, never

2023-02-27 10:47:01

2024 halving will make bitcoin the scarcest asset in the world. Even if we wanted to price that in, we couldn't.
https://nocamels.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/black-hole-by-NASA.jpg

2023-02-25 15:34:10

S&P500 is my macro proxy because stock markets price in / anticipate all macro events (inflation, recession, central bank action, war etc)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp0pY_0WYAExtm5.jpg

2023-02-25 15:08:41

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Yeah twitter is messing with my account, deleting/blocking ~200 random followers daily, and of course shadowbanned.

2023-02-25 13:07:28

Stock-to-Flow model discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY&t=353s

2023-02-24 12:47:29

36% bears
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpfSCXrXsAAS_Pa.png

2023-02-23 10:08:24

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I don't know how to implement that. There is a lnurl in my profile but guess that is not the way to do it...

2023-02-23 10:06:17

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FppLhbkWYAQjw0V.jpg

2023-02-21 18:21:12

*NEW PlanB video on YouTube🔥
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY

2023-02-21 10:22:42

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Ah the trolls have found nostr. Pls just unfollow if you hate me, my charts, the Dutch, traders, bybit, everthing so much.

2023-02-20 18:02:39

Last chance to buy below $25k?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpaqmzmWcAEpPm-.png

2023-02-15 22:58:42

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Last chance to buy below $25k🚀

2023-02-15 18:29:24

Bitcoin = 13 ounces of Gold
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBx3_IXgAA2OXq.jpg

2023-02-14 23:31:28

Bitcoin halving is not so much about reduced supply and miner reward, but more about increased scarcity in the eyes of investors. 2024 halving will increase scarcity to stock-to-flow ratio 110 .. the world is not ready for a S2F110 asset! Discussion here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSTaCRGmW-M&t=425s

2023-02-14 22:06:19

2024 bitcoin halving not priced in, will pump price🚀
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fo9Z6J2X0AAYCd8.png

2023-02-14 17:39:09

ICYMI: my bitcoin 2023 - 2025 prediction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdsR1PpJPDw&t=644s

2023-02-13 21:16:21

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Yes 50% just after 2017 ath, but I used the money to buy back in q1 2019 (when I wrote s2f article).

2023-02-13 21:11:39

First impersonator on nostr! Iwondered how long that woukd take. And he is scamming people too, with his ln invoices. Be careful out there!
https://nostr.band/npub13djky3w74xdzktaz09wd9ct5mwhcte4fy5zeysmjuxn5adlzeknq0vr5kz

2023-02-13 21:06:51

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No worries, I can hodl irrationally long too😎

2023-02-12 19:34:09

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Tbh I am not a lightning expert, is there a non-custodial wallet (like blockstream green for btc) that I can use on nostr with lnurl link?

2023-02-12 19:06:52

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FoyclenWYAMwr-2.jpg
Wow this is nuts, sats streaming in on nostr!
Great way to tip for good content. And also to prevent spam. Some nostr clients now sort replies based on sats: highest sat tip on top⚡️

2023-02-12 18:06:21

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Ok I tried something .. does it work?

2023-02-12 18:03:33

I added Lightning to my nostr, not sure if I did it correctly?

2023-02-12 16:25:16

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How can I do that? I just joined nostr so I am a total n00b

2023-02-12 16:22:20

https://media.tenor.com/cD-4pNdygggAAAAC/fun-snow.gif
Nostr rocks!!

2023-02-12 14:07:33

My Twitter experience last couple of months:
- Twitter blocks and unfollows ~200 of my followers daily
- Twitter shadow banned me: my tweets are not send to 80% of followers, notifications do not work for 80%, I do not show up in search (by non-followers), I do not show up in "for you" TL)
- Twitter allows 89 planb impersonators to use my icon & background, to (only) retweet all my tweets, and to dm and reply people to scam them / steal their btc
- Twitter allows hundreds of spam bots to polute all my tweets with the exact same message. Annoying for you, but for me it means I can nor read replies anymore, thus I can not communicate / discuss with you anymore (ddos effectively)
Needless to say I am done with Twitter and will be spending more time on nostr and making yt videos.

2023-02-11 23:15:56

Hmm, I wonder if I did this correctly: I just took the private key of some unused vanity bitcoin address to create this nostr account..

2023-02-09 15:38:46

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care to explain why you think that? why you think current 2sd bounce is not comparable to 2013 and 2017 2sd bounces?

2023-02-09 13:49:39

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FogJ-AeaAAA-U5z.jpg
Some people think S2F model is broken/ invalidated .. I think S2F model is doing fine, bouncing off 2sd bands (like 2011, 2013 and 2017) and on track towards 2024 halving.

2023-02-04 10:27:47

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Yeah haters gonna hate. Some haters keep focusing on 100k and forget I made the prediction in 2019 at 4k .. so 69k in 2021 was pretty close IMO.

2023-02-04 09:08:59

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pe27FiXtFcw
*NEW video on YouTube: 7 Bull Signals🚀

2023-02-02 10:20:00

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fn9DwGgX0AElmJZ.jpg
bitcoin is getting stronger .. halving is coming🔥

2023-02-01 23:18:29

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💯 a breath of fresh air compared to tw

2023-02-01 22:20:38

test
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmTcAGJXoAUfTWN?format=png&name=small

2023-02-01 20:02:40

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "PlanB@100trillionUSD"

2023-02-01 19:27:19

I am on Iris web client. What is the best android app (no apple, so no Damus app for me)?

2023-02-01 18:18:41

Hi all, glad to be here!