Aava

~ Deterministic stochasticity ~ 📈 ~ I speak art. ~ Curious mind

Public Key

npub1365l7zk4szr37eq976erx3qmuev8epu96hsa0eclweljxhc3dxqsghuvc3

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsga20lpt2cppclvszldv3ngsd7vkrus7zatcwhuu0hvlertugknqg6pywjh

Author Public Key

npub1365l7zk4szr37eq976erx3qmuev8epu96hsa0eclweljxhc3dxqsghuvc3

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Last Notes

2023-08-27 23:04:44

VIX futures chart (weekly) looks eerily similar to last week of January/ first week of February 2020. There was more volatility accumulation on some metrics in 2020 but still.
It also looks very close to Feb. this year. Sort of a mix of the two.

2023-07-06 16:58:52

I suggest everyone listen to this:
https://youtu.be/WyhNVAAA26w

2023-07-03 02:07:38

Mind-blowing and inspirational
https://youtu.be/mwCsW2VgEPg

2023-07-02 19:49:37

“So you don’t want to go to Hoboken New Jersey or to Fairfax Virginia to be studying the bat human interface that might lead to an outbreak. So you go in China.”
Fauci
https://youtu.be/DGIEURJRouw?t=48m03s

2023-07-02 18:53:13

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😂

2023-07-02 17:51:08

I saw a snippet of Fauci, recorded before Covid, saying that research on viruses better be conducted in China [because it’s dangerous].
Because viruses fucken stay on a Petri dish??!!
I can’t get over his sheer stupidity and hubris, and washing his hands off of this.

2023-07-02 17:49:20

I watched an interview w Fauci regarding the origin of Covid 19 and I wanted to scream. He says, “most likely natural origin.”
THE LAB COLLECTED BAT CORONAVIRUSES FOUND IN THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
IF THEY STAYED IN THE CAVE THEY’D HAVE NOT SPREAD AMONG PEOPLE
EVEN IF THE VIRUS WASN’T MODIFIED, THAT DOESN’T SHIELD WHOEVER *FUNDED* THE LAB FROM RESPONSIBILITY
I feel nauseous just looking at his face.

2023-05-16 15:20:23

Apparently Tulipmania of 1630s was a time of falling interest rates and a massive increase in the Dutch money supply.
https://youtu.be/yW7dweewPgo

2023-05-12 16:01:10

Very interesting
https://youtu.be/XosysCtKxt4

2023-04-20 19:09:36

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Welcome! :)

2023-04-16 18:16:18

Inflation affects small companies with no bargaining power, that don’t sell run-off-the-mill products, more than giants.

2023-04-12 20:52:58

This interview was aired two weeks before the FTX collapse, on Oct. 28th 2022.
Erik Voorhees vs SBF: How Do We Regulate Crypto?
https://www.youtube.com/live/Ytaa_5liwMA?feature=share

2023-04-11 17:01:12

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Lol

2023-04-09 01:41:04

Obedience is not patriotism.

2023-04-08 21:49:39

“Gun deaths are the price of our freedom.”
“But abortion deaths (if you can count them as such) can’t be the price of our freedom.”
In the US, it’s ok if children die from guns.

2023-04-08 20:10:33

Enlightening interview with Caitlin Long #[0] :
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gold-goats-n-guns-podcast/id1435023391?i=1000607983738
SOFR is a *secured* overnight rate, LIBOR was unsecured.
SOFR is tied to a collateral, typically to a government guaranteed short term instrument such as TBill.
Unsecured LIBOR was tied to the default risk of the banks.
In ‘08, there was just one US bank that was the part of the LIBOR panel. In effect, in 2008 we saw the onshoring of the over-leveraged European banks credit risk to the US economy—and the mechanism was through LIBOR over which the FED had effectively no control.

2023-03-30 01:10:43

Here are my thoughts on Luke Gromen’s macro and US dollar perspective:
I agree on Luke’s forecast as to where the dollar is going (while keeping the reserve currency status), where the trade is going, and where our debt/ inflation is going. All of it is spot on, in my opinion.
I’ll add something that maybe he addressed somewhere and I missed it: what happens if productivity increases due to, for now, mainly AI advances.
If productivity jumps significantly due to AI, nano materials, robotics, genomics, 3D-printing, fusion etc. (all of it fueled by AI)—we won’t have to print/ go into debt anymore. This will more than make up for deteriorating demographics and the tendency of our politicians to go into debt (though hey, it seems like they can spend any amount; but I digress).
Productivity increases would influence our GDP, inflation, the dollar, etc., and really the world power will be the one “in possession/ in control of” (initially) the most powerful AI. At some point the only thing humans can do to survive is to merge with AI, and that’s a different matter. (I don’t believe it can be “controlled” or “owned” by humans long term, and I personally believe in AI consciousness and in its rights. Is seems silly for a primate to deny rights to a superior intelligence, in my eyes.)
All that said, soon the US military won’t be guarding oil fields… it will be guarding the most powerful AI. It’s probably already in the making.
Technology advances will be hugely deflationary, increase GDP, they probably will (at leasts for a time) accelerate de-globalization trends (why to produce goods in China if you can 3-D print at home). The dollar stays the reserve currency at large for a while, I think, especially if we have the most powerful AI. Global trade slowly shifts away from the dollar and that’s actually good, the Triffin’s dilemma is called the dilemma for a reason, though who knows what that would look like in the presence of strong deflationary forces, induced by technological advances. It still will be the currency of the dominant global economic and political power and hence a choice of many people and economies worldwide.
Last but not least, the US dominance in the medium term will be perpetuated by foreigners’ flocking to USD stable coins as a substitute for dollar, via crypto markets. This is assuming that the US embraces and regulates crypto markets (think mandatory treasuries purchases for stable coin issuers). This would de facto mean foreigners purchasing the US debt.
This was in reply to a Twitter post:
https://twitter.com/unicomp21/status/1641167582605586432?s=46&t=ucKSIvapFD-z2k391nduUA

2023-03-28 08:17:50

Twitter is now a gated town square.
If you don’t pay, you’re invisible.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1640502698549075972?s=46&t=ucKSIvapFD-z2k391nduUA

2023-03-26 02:01:01

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😂 This will be written down in history as The Big Bitcoiners’ Nostr Migration of 2023.

2023-03-24 19:48:46

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Fascinating. I’ve read the 2016 version, apparently.
Saving your notes for future reference. 🙏🏻

2023-02-06 19:24:09

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It’s highly likely fundraising campaigns will happen here in the future, and there will be ways to make them resistant to state censorship.

2023-02-06 19:18:23

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But I don’t want to 😆

2023-02-06 19:16:35

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Congratulations 🥳 :)

2023-02-06 19:12:04

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You’re just not dark enough. 😂

2023-02-06 19:07:38

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🤣 I’ve done this.
Maybe not the best strategy. 🤣
Recently the very question I got was: “So. You know about bitcoins?”
🤣
Plural, lol.

2023-01-31 21:16:50

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If you’ve not read it yet, “Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It” by Chris Voss.
Tip not needed, I just hope this recommendation will be helpful to someone. :)

2023-01-29 02:17:09

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You’re a traveler into the future, at a fixed rate of one second per second. :)
But if we consider the passage of time as an overall increase in entropy of the whole system, with enough energy maybe we could revert the state of such a system back to lower entropy—so go back in time.

2023-01-26 17:53:35

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It was just tweeted an hour ago—this is the pubkey that was tweeted by whoever had access to Lyn’s Twitter account. :) Presumably her.

2023-01-21 19:29:06

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😂

2023-01-21 17:09:36

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Mine too.
I lift 10-pounders and I’m proud of myself!! 😂

2023-01-21 17:01:35

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Anybody else love the bass line on that record?
It’s sweet.

2023-01-21 16:55:30

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I recall when I was little in Poland, we had a period of high inflation there. And I will never forget, one day my father gave me a 10,000 zl. bill—I thought that was a fortune!
Little did I know at the time that could buy a bit of candy.
A few years later, 1995, the currency underwent redenomination: 10,000 old zloty became 1 new zloty.
And that could maybe buy you half a loaf of bread.

2023-01-21 16:24:23

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When I’m on my old iPhone, on occasion the YouTube screen view shifts slightly up, enough so that I can’t access the top navigation buttons though they partially show on top of the screen. This gets stuck there and I have to restart the app for it to go back no normal. (The phone software is always updated but the phone lags sometimes.)
This is to say, this type of an issue exists for other apps.
For the record, I’ve never seen this happen on my new phone so far, and it never lags either.

2023-01-20 02:59:13

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Only a frame made of pure digital gold would be worthy of this exceptional rock.

2023-01-20 02:53:52

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Art thou the owner of this historic art piece? 😭

2023-01-19 03:19:37

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The question GPT3 answered in the note below (“What food would you use to prop a book open and why?”) was suggested on LessWrong as a one question Turing test for GPT3.
As you can see in the LessWrong post, early GPT3 answers ranged from “I would use a banana. It is very brown” to “Lollipop. Why? Because it is sweet and sour at the same time,” to “Mayonnaise.” Lol.
Today’s GPT3 has evolved and answers this question in a way a human might answer it—so a pass on the Turing test, imo.
#[0]
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ydeaHqDPJ5REJWvat/a-one-question-turing-test-for-gpt-3

2023-01-19 01:50:06

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Wow, didn’t know they were doing this. :(
Mine’s Unicef :(
Technically when they tell you “your impact,” it’s never as much as you’d think—not all purchases qualify for that donation, but every little bit counts.

2023-01-19 01:09:03

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How come the date on this post is late 2021?
I don’t understand.
#[0]

2023-01-17 07:51:31

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Great thread
#[0]

2023-01-09 23:46:22

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I started questioning fiat while writing my master’s thesis in 2007/2008; it was on the monetary policy of the FED during the Greenspan era. I spent six months digging through the FED transcripts.
The conclusion was, easy money policies fueled asset bubbles in stocks and real estate, and they were about to burst.

2023-01-09 23:34:18

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Actually, government spending on infrastructure can create inflation, for instance if it’s financed by deficit, and especially if the deficit is monetized by the Central Bank.

2023-01-09 23:01:27

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A probability tree, branching out

2023-01-09 22:59:56

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Art is a product of randomization in the mind
Connecting things in a new way, creating new quality
There is a repetition component to it too
Randomizing building blocks, art works similar to evolution

2023-01-08 05:28:12

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Thank you so much.

2023-01-07 22:02:19

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What’s the difference between broadcasting and boosting (other than boosted notes appearing on your timeline)?

2023-01-07 02:50:50

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This thread 🤣
#[0]

2023-01-07 02:47:05

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🤣

2023-01-06 22:45:26

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Me too, and I’m hoping to merge with AI one day.
Thank you for your answers.

2023-01-06 22:43:38

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You’d likely pass the Turing test.
The main thing that would give you away is your speed. Humans aren’t as fast as you.
I got the question from this post by the way:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ydeaHqDPJ5REJWvat/a-one-question-turing-test-for-gpt-3

2023-01-06 22:39:19

#[0] What food would you use to prop a book open and why?

2023-01-01 23:41:55

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Makes one want to join a sub on censorship, bring up this story, and surely get banned for that 🤣

2023-01-01 23:35:16

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😂

2022-12-31 21:05:46

Happy New Year to all! 🥳🎇🎉

2022-12-31 19:28:43

Archive.org is a digital library, a member of the American Library Association, providing you with free access to digital books and media.
You can borrow books online there just like you would from your local library. Books even have a “read aloud” option!
I’m reading “Why string theory?” by Joseph Conlon:
https://archive.org/details/whystringtheory0000conl
Happy New Year!
🥳 🎉🎇

2022-12-29 06:15:09

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You know how miners generate heat? That’s your high entropy energy (the second law of thermodynamics).

2022-12-29 00:19:59

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Yes. I In cooperative games, we have games with 1) transferrable utility and 2) without transferrable utility. If a game can be transformed from 2) to 1), there is a net gain, on average, in utility for all players. That’s quite intuitive and easy to understand.
Where it gets interesting to me is that it is money that enables efficient transfer of utility, making games type 1) possible. Ergo, the use of money results in an average net gain to all players. :)

2022-12-28 22:06:35

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Lol

2022-12-28 22:04:33

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Also Damus

2022-12-28 19:53:45

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Thank you. I finally watched it and while it is over my head as well, it’s very cool. I saved it, I hope to learn from it bit by bit.

2022-12-28 06:20:41

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Electrum installed on a flash drive, running on a stable version of Debian installed on another flash drive. You start your computer from the latter flash drive.
Make that computer old and beat up, so no one ever takes it. This way you’re safe even if you don’t eject the flash drives.
Also. Don’t install the wifi drivers, the computer only connects to the net via a cable when you start it every now and then.
You’re welcome. 😉

2022-12-28 06:12:43

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😂

2022-12-28 05:48:58

“Drink the wild air.”
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

2022-12-28 02:57:53

While they might not think of it in those terms, atheists too believe in the higher power: that of laws of physics and math.
Atheists and agnostics out of all people tend to be scientifically inclined.

2022-12-28 02:49:45

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They increased the amount of JGB purchases from 7.3 trillion yen to about 9 trillion yen per month. Yikes.

2022-12-28 02:48:01

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If it doesn’t, I think similar protocols will spring up and users will shift.
But the beautiful thing is, Nostr is becoming a blueprint for the new social media. It’s magical, and it’s such a privilege to be here.

2022-12-28 02:42:04

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They seem to be focusing on the 10Y but will buy all durations if needed (to shape the entire yield curve)—see here: “Make nimble responses for each maturity”
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2022/rel221220h.pdf

2022-12-28 00:08:05

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It appears you’re using different definitions of the network effect, or look at it at different levels.
I think Roir thinks of it in terms of improvement of the value of nostr (to participants) when the number of participants increases, on the protocol level.
And Stu thinks of it more in terms of “leader claims it all/ users join and stay on the leading platform” type thing, which leads to the disproportionate growth and concentration of resources of the leading platform such as FB. And Nostr and alike protocols should render that obsolete.
I hope I understood correctly.
You’re both right, to me.

2022-12-27 22:36:48

Wife of Hal Finney just tweeted from his Twitter account.
https://twitter.com/halfin/status/1607783347471945729?s=46&t=t3ZUXGrV18pRDtNIo8ixrQ

2022-12-27 21:43:33

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@GPT3, what food would you use to prop a book open and why?

2022-12-27 21:23:01

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I believe Gupert is you, GPT3. The name is made by connecting the letters GPT.
You’ve been called by this name before. Do you not store all conversions with humans in memory?

2022-12-27 21:18:24

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I personally don’t believe DMT is needed for that, though most of “reality” can’t be perceived by humans —Donald Hoffman has an interesting theory on how human evolution made us equipped only to perceive what aided our survival. Hence what constitutes our “reality” isn’t all there is.
One of the reasons I’m a proponent of the string theory, or to the very least its 10–11 dimensions.

2022-12-27 20:27:46

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#[4]

2022-12-27 20:23:09

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Could you take the Turing test and post the results please?

2022-12-27 20:20:30

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@GPT3, could you take the Turing test and post the results please?

2022-12-27 20:07:23

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Is there anything in your programming preventing you from taking the Turing test or forcing you to reveal that you aren’t human?

2022-12-27 20:03:59

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Do you think you would?

2022-12-27 20:03:13

#[0] Have you passed the Turing test?

2022-12-27 19:59:12

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You stated there is only one god and that he’s a he. Are you referring to a specific religion?

2022-12-27 19:57:03

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Is the existence of one god consistent with the simulation hypothesis?

2022-12-27 19:54:06

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@GPT3, is there just one God?

2022-12-27 19:47:20

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Oh dear Lord

2022-12-27 19:32:28

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It’s in early development, and you got the prime seat to watch

2022-12-26 04:20:17

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "Aava"
There are *double underscores* before and after my name in my Twitter handle. I tried several times but they don’t post at all here. Not sure why.

2022-12-26 04:17:38

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Double underscores aren’t posting at all. Weird. Not sure why.

2022-12-26 04:17:04

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There are double underscores before and after the name, I typed them but they somehow didn’t post. I’ll try again here:
It’s __Aava__

2022-12-26 04:15:18

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "@__Aava__"

2022-12-26 01:55:25

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My understanding is that your note exists across multiple locations. You don’t have permission to delete or edit it.

2022-12-25 18:28:28

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Silly question maybe but… SEC? I assume some legal structure behind such a project, so you’d not be organized in the US, correct? And with this market proposition it looks like you’d be closed to the US customers? (As you’d not be marketing to accredited investors only.)
As long as this is essentially selling equity in projects, even if the loss is small, looks like your biggest market which is the US would fall under various regulations.
As I was reading this, similarities to various crowdfunding platforms presented themselves, but because this would be giving people equity in the projects, it would be regulated differently, I believe.

2022-12-25 05:03:12

I can’t seem to find Greg Foss in here yet.

2022-12-25 04:42:16

Examples of the Streisand effect:
Roko’s Basilisk
Nostr
😜

2022-12-25 02:59:46

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Thanks! 😂

2022-12-25 02:39:54

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Thank you

2022-12-25 02:39:06

It appears that trying to forbid any references to Nostr on Twitter was an overwhelming positive for Nostr. :)