Shoddy-log
Shoddy-Log

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Last Notes

2024-12-11 05:41:14

Government jobs are suffocating economies across the globe. It's crowding out the private sector, and causing major economic hardship for regular people.

2024-12-08 19:36:57

https://youtu.be/81CQqZ5KNt8

2024-12-06 22:15:49

What goes up will come down. The stock market will fall by its own weight.

2024-11-24 01:09:56

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You ain't seen bad boys 2?

2024-11-24 00:24:47

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Everything, basically. Bitcoiners seem to think the government is printing money still, that inflation is still bad, and that fiat is going to zero. None of that is true.

2024-11-24 00:20:18

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There's just a lot of conspiracy theories in the bitcoin community. Nostr is pretty diverse, but other social media has big cult vibes. There's also a ton of misinformation about economics in the bitcoin community. It's kinda cringe.

2024-11-23 23:58:52

Bitcoin encourages cult-like behavior

2024-11-23 22:53:34

Bitcoin will never hit 100k

2024-11-14 11:31:42

You can't pay debt with bitcoin, and there is a lot of debt floating around. Debt that has to be paid back in US dollars.

2024-11-07 20:40:10

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Everything is historically expensive right now. People only talk about forward P/E ratios, and everything is priced for perfection. There is unreasonable optimism among investors, even as the rest of the world is dealing with economic problems. There is a record amount of debt, globally. There are many similarities, but also some big differences, to the 1920s. I think this is a massive global bubble in asset prices.
It also looks like a crack up boom. There are signs this could end in hyperinflation. I think a soft landing is very unlikely.
America is also very similar to Japan in the 80s. When there is this much debt, it is very difficult to avoid a recession. And a recession leads to debt deflation. Then, a liquidity trap follows. This is what happened in the 1930s, and it happened in Japan.

2024-11-06 07:06:46

The rise of populism and illiberalism is why we need #nostr. Freedom of speech is under attack from both sides.

2024-11-06 05:47:11

Both parties want to raise taxes, and both parties will continue spending. They have almost identical economic policies.

2024-11-06 05:17:44

I guess there aren't many people who are into macroeconomics on #nostr. It's mostly just bitcoin bulls.

2024-11-06 05:01:39

As a liberal, I'm terrified of Trump winning. But as a bear, I'm very excited.

2024-11-06 04:39:45

Every single poor person voted for Trump after months of being gaslit by politicians and the media. Democrats are so fucking out of touch.

2024-11-06 03:33:26

I can't believe people think the election matters. There is basically no difference between Trump and Harris on the economy. The only differences are cultural issues.

2024-11-05 23:01:10

America is going to end up like Argentina if the deficit keeps growing. Inflation will never come down, which means rates will stay high.

2024-11-05 22:58:06

Printing money isn't a solution to debt. Just look at Japan.

2024-11-05 22:53:21

Everything is fucked no matter who wins. Either there will be a crash, or more money printing. Either way there will be a recession.

2024-11-05 13:36:24

The bubble is about to burst

2024-11-05 13:34:20

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Definitely not. AI isn't smart enough to make bitcoin

2024-11-05 10:03:06

I think Satoshi is a group of people, led by Hal Finney. I think Nick Szabo and Adam Back were in that group.

2024-11-03 22:24:53

Szabo is satoshi

2024-10-31 21:41:37

The data has been pretty good, so why are prices coming down? I haven't heard any bad news lately.

2024-10-31 21:14:04

Is this still a bull market? Because it doesn't look like it.

2024-10-31 19:59:30

Don't stay out late and get drunk. Know when to cut yourself off

2024-10-31 18:29:41

AI is deflationary. If AI is as big as some people think, it should bring down prices significantly, in the future.

2024-10-31 17:50:59

The US economy is being driven by deficit spending, and wealth inequality. That's why it seems unstoppable.

2024-10-31 17:44:00

I refuse to believe Michael Saylor is smarter than Warren Buffet. Saylor is clearly buying the top, again.

2024-10-31 17:35:46

I'm not convinced this is just a dip

2024-10-31 17:24:10

An epic bubble caused by the never-ending expansion of credit

2024-10-31 17:22:22

The business cycle is almost over. Other countries are slowing down, and the US is next.

2024-10-31 16:44:36

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I don't think he told many people about it. Someone told me about bitcoin in early 2008, but they didn't use the name. He mentioned a distributed ledger, and mining for digital currency. He never said the words "bitcoin", "cryptocurrency", "blockchain", or "decentralization". But some guy in Vancouver knew about it, so who was he?

2024-10-31 07:17:02

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The global economy. The second possible outcome is fiat crashing.

2024-10-31 07:14:31

This shit is going to crash. I don't know when, but it's going to be ugly. There are only 2 possible outcomes: a crash, or something much worse.

2024-10-31 06:46:23

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By concept, not by name

2024-10-31 06:22:20

How many people would have known about bitcoin in 2008? There must have been more people than just satoshi

2024-10-31 05:15:30

I'm pretty sure that guy on the bus was satoshi, but I'll never know. It was just a weird encounter I'll never forget.

2024-10-31 04:30:36

I can't wait for this ridiculous bubble to pop. It's gotten completely insane. Everyone is drinking the kool-aid

2024-10-31 03:25:03

The stagflation hypothesis is flawed. Stagflation would almost certainly lead to hyperinflation. I think debt deflation is more likely. The government would have to really fuck up for stagflation to happen.

2024-10-31 03:03:27

The craziest thing about that guy was that it happened in early 2008. I was 18, and he couldn't have been that much older than me. I wonder who he was.

2024-10-31 02:46:31

In the late 2000s, I met someone on the bus who told me about bitcoin. I didn't know what the fuck he was talking about. Distributed ledger? Mining for digital currency by solving puzzles? I thought it might be legit, but there was no was I would be able to explain it to my girlfriend, so I should just forget about it.
Not listening to that crazy dude on the bus was the biggest mistake of my life. I still think about that day everytime I look at the price of bitcoin. He was young, and he definitely didn't look rich. I couldn't understand why anyone would want to do that. But he was right.

2024-10-31 00:53:07

The US economy is strong, bond yields are high... why wouldn't anyone be bullish on the dollar?

2024-10-31 00:16:06

People are ditching dollars because their money is becoming worthless. This is how a crackup boom starts.

2024-10-30 21:22:06

Saylor isn't a genius, he's just a regular bull.

2024-10-30 20:17:38

Governments are increasing liquidity because their economies are slowing down. This is not bullish.

2024-10-30 10:02:39

How can anyone resist buying US bonds at these prices? How much lower are they going to go?

2024-10-30 09:49:17

Has anything ever happened to you that was so crazy, you can't believe it actually happened?

2024-10-30 09:40:44

Deflation is more likely than runaway inflation. I don't know why everyone is betting on inflation.

2024-10-29 07:03:20

Bitcoin is going to 36k

2024-10-29 02:49:00

Bitcoin, gold, and silver are all up. Bond yields are up. Everyone is betting on inflation. Nobody thinks the fed is going to cut until they hit the neutral rate, or they think the neutral rate is higher than previously estimated.
If people thought inflation was coming down, they would be buying bonds. If people thought rates were coming down, the dollar wouldn't be going up.

2024-10-27 06:58:32

Just smoked a lollipop, think I'm gonna eat some soup

2024-10-27 04:57:42

Been a while since I've been on nostr. I love how diverse it is, and I'm surprised at how well it works. It's just better than regular social media

2023-07-01 08:50:24

Suppose I have a music streaming app and I use #nostr to save playlist information. Users could use that playlist in a different app or share it with a friend.
Someone who watches lots of videos might use a lot of apps but they probably watch similar things. With Nostr you can tell the algo what you want to see and use those settings in every app.

2023-07-01 08:26:30

#nostr makes it easy to add features to your website or app. Get rid of login pages and easily add social media. Users can be in control of their data and use it in different apps. Apps are easier and better with nostr

2023-06-30 03:46:35

Nostr makes IPFS obsolete

2023-06-30 00:51:09

Nostr can be used for more than social media. It could be used to stream music and videos, and even host decentralized websites. What are other interesting use cases?

2023-03-22 18:11:56

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Slowing down lending and paying off debt mostly. Defaults also removes money from the system

2023-03-22 18:07:59

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Raising rates removes money from the system

2023-03-22 05:54:40

Rate hikes and bank failures are kind of like lost bitcoin and halvings

2023-03-22 05:40:23

Recessions are deflationary

2023-03-22 05:22:11

Inflation is worse for financial stability than rate hikes