Everything is historically expensive right now. People only talk about forward P/E ratios, and everything is priced for perfection. There is unreasonable optimism among investors, even as the rest of the world is dealing with economic problems. There is a record amount of debt, globally. There are many similarities, but also some big differences, to the 1920s. I think this is a massive global bubble in asset prices.
It also looks like a crack up boom. There are signs this could end in hyperinflation. I think a soft landing is very unlikely.
America is also very similar to Japan in the 80s. When there is this much debt, it is very difficult to avoid a recession. And a recession leads to debt deflation. Then, a liquidity trap follows. This is what happened in the 1930s, and it happened in Japan.
Shoddy-log / Shoddy-Log
npub10m…53jv7
2024-11-07 20:40:10
in reply to nevent1q…enat
Author Public Key
npub10mdgfn5ywl8kup267058lmpv3vqz8ltfmdhhzxhgvhhhj89528vqv53jv7Published at
2024-11-07 20:40:10Event JSON
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