prc30
Peter Alexander

China 30 year veteran / https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-alexander-97630910

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npub1yy3uc7y85faxy5cwq8f574yda3j9457p7r9h2ymlkwlx6lp8f4vsy4kawc

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keylisa09@walletofsatoshi.com

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nprofile1qqszzg7v0zr6y7nz2v8qr5602jx7cez660qlpjm4zdlm80nd0sn56kgpp3mhxue69uhkyunz9e5k7qg4waehxw309ajkgetw9ehx7um5wghxcctwvssmm329

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eden.nostr.land

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Last Notes

2025-04-23 00:03:05

So this just flashed out in the news. Call me skeptical.
https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-and-xi-to-meet-in-early-may-20250422/amp/

2025-04-22 02:54:09

China Morning Missive
Here is but one example of why an American policy of containment just won’t work with China. It might have been possible a decade-plus in the past, but not today.
Nvida is told to halt all chip shipments to China. This was expected going back to the first trade war in 2018. In fact, Trump’s biggest mistake was to loudly and publicly point out all of China’s weak points. This included access to tech. The Chinese heard, knew what Trump said was correct and with that action was taken.
For five years China prepared for what is now playing out. None should be surprised by Huawai announcing new, competitive chip technology nor with CATL with advances in batteries and EV charging stations. Remember DeepSeek? That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-readies-new-ai-chip-mass-shipment-china-seeks-nvidia-alternatives-sources-2025-04-21/

2025-04-22 02:47:19

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I love it and also agree with all of the points made. It might be a good idea to mention that my commentary on #China shouldn’t be taken as China = Good and America = Bad. My aim is just to highlight the current confines of the bilateral relationship given what decisions were made by both parties over the past couple of decades.
But again, I don’t just agree with your points, I’ll add one more. There was the decision by China to literally build islands in the South China Sea and claim they were for “scientific purposes”. A few years later, those islands were militarized.
Long story, short. China took complete advantage of the “international rules based order” and was enabled to do so due to America being so very preoccupied with the Global War on Terror. All it is that China received were strongly worded memos. Too easy to just disregard.
It was, in my opinion, American hubris - with a dash of hypocrisy - that led to China’s rise over the past two decades. And now China has reached escape velocity. Containment isn’t an option. That should have been the American policy back in 2010.
That leads us to the current state of play. The points of leverage are changed and it is through this lens that American policy needs to operate.
Again, the more disagreement the better. It’s why Nostr is so great. There’s a demand for accountability. I wouldn’t want it any other way.

2025-04-21 03:25:22

2001 George W Bush “you are either with us or with the terrorists”
2025 Donald J Trump “we might force countries to choose between the US and China”
We’ve all seen the game before and, arguably, America had far greater leverage 25 years ago. Arguably. And it still turned out horribly wrong.
Over the past decade and a half, the US has spent blood and treasure on a series of misadventures. China, on the other hand, has deployed trade surpluses to build.

2025-04-21 02:14:40

China Morning Missive
Nothing at all surprising about this move, even as the chorus continues to call for “fiscal stimulus”. The fact that China’s central bank remains cautious on rates tells you all you need to know.
Pragmatism is the name of the game. Don’t expect any material moves to support the local economy until Beijing has a clearer understanding of what, exactly, the Trump administration wants from this trade war.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/china-set-leave-lending-rates-steady-tariffs-raise-easing-bets-2025-04-18/

2025-04-21 00:22:39

Trying something new in an attempt to be more production on Nostr

2025-04-16 03:05:00

Not that this #China strategy should come as a surprise. It’s the fact that Bessent and the entire Trump team actually view the strategy as being “doable”.
When reviewing which country represents the largest trading partner of other countries China has surpassed the US years ago.
The only solution is for the US and China to recognize the world as it is rather than the world they wish it to be. The solution will demand collaboration. That, however, isn’t the American position …… at least not at the moment.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?st=ynEXsW&reflink=article_copyURL_share

2025-04-09 13:07:26

The US cannot win the trade war with #China.
Walmart pulling forward guidance tells you everything you need to know. Price hikes on all things out of China are being passed on to either the American buyer (Walmart) or the American consumer.
And I’ll also repeat again. China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Export controls will be the point when that changes.

2025-04-05 02:32:39

As expected. TikTok gets another 75 day extension.
You tell me who has the leverage? If you can’t even bring #China to the table over TikTok what do you honestly think you see as possible in the bigger picture.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04/

2025-04-04 02:30:26

Back with a China Morning Missive
This one is simple. There will be no TikTok deal if Trump makes it a quid pro quo.
The Chinese know he could just as easily reverse any agreement made. I’m expecting the Chinese to refuse to play ball and the best case scenario is for the can to be kicked down the road.
60% of ByteDance is foreign owned. The Chinese would rather let it all burn to the ground than submit to demands by Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-could-get-tariff-relief-if-it-approves-tiktok-deal-2025-04-03/

2025-03-25 00:21:58

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Not so sure about this. Just anecdotal, but the office building I work in here in Shanghai just put in new equipment to enter the elevators. There’s facial recognition when you swipe your card to get into the elevator bank and then another when you enter the elevator and swipe the card for you floor.
I’d say that facial recognition in China has accelerated if nothing ese.

2025-02-18 00:10:59

Second Nostr Anniversary. Where did all that time go?
For all out there interested in following what’s happening in #China, I’ll keep plugging away.
Much love to all.

2025-02-11 02:49:29

China Morning Missive
The greatest benefit from the throngs of Americans jumping on RedNote is how quickly errant tropes of #China have been blown apart.
The perfect example is the “social credit score”. I can’t even begin to tell you all how many times I’ve had to explain to clients and others that this simply doesn’t exist. And yet, how many times have you seen headlines and social media commentary on Twitter or elsewhere making the claim that a Chinese social credit score runs the lives of all everyday Chinese.
Between RedNote and DeepSeek, there’s been a genuine awareness that most of what the American media covers in regards of China is just articulated fabrications. https://image.nostr.build/8873da7fb596eb73e5359f6a1a04caacfef9047f306fe30db5001a0c35c47460.jpg

2025-01-30 12:38:52

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Exactly. Just waiting for the folks in Washington to figure it all out. Nothing my breath though.

2025-01-29 02:56:10

NYT reaches out to discuss the key players running DeepSeek. Apparently the comments I shared didn’t align with the stories message. Not the first time. And not the last time I’m sure
https://m.primal.net/OFTI.jpg

2025-01-27 13:38:55

After the mayhem of today, and the final workday before Chinese New Year, out for the night.
https://m.primal.net/OCkf.jpg

2025-01-27 09:59:31

We are now talking about a loss of nearly $350bn in market cap.
https://m.primal.net/OCXt.jpg

2025-01-27 03:02:36

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Price dislocation among wildly different asset classes = STACK HARDER

2025-01-27 03:01:12

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No that’s gonna leave a mark. Can already hear Jim Cramer’s head exploding.

2025-01-27 02:25:04

“A bunch of giga autist at a Chinese quant fund are going to cause the Nasdaq to crash but nobody has realized it yet”.
Looks like this point hit home among investors over the weekend. DeepSeek causing a market selloff???
https://m.primal.net/OCBK.jpg

2025-01-27 02:05:32

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Given that the protocol is open sourced should then mean that this degree of censorship (outside China) will disappear. Others will take what’s been built and make it however they see most suitable.
Either that or the likes of OpenAI will need to become far more competitive and cost efficient.

2025-01-27 01:31:32

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Very true. By the way, sent you a DM. Have a look when you can.

2025-01-27 00:54:21

Well this escalated quickly.
Open source for the win. https://image.nostr.build/4f6ae779d838024bc914c8f30b1075c84763941157408b59734f6bee76a501c9.jpg

2025-01-26 23:47:22

China Morning Missive
The world’s worst kept secret, at least here in China. For all the moves made to keep Bitcoin out of the closed capital system, it has remained steadfast. P2P interlocuters have remained over the years regardless of what policy is put out from Beijing.
Granted, there has also been the more nefarious play of “capital flight” with agents using the likes of Tether to assist with moving capital offshore. For Beijing, this is by far the more heinous act and looks to be now coming back into the cross hairs.
I can attest personally to there being a hodgepodge of individuals seeing a market and the ability to profit off the “spread”. If there’s money to be made, you can be certain that a Chinese will be there to make that market.
There could be yet another “China bans crypto” headline in the future. Then again, it wouldn’t be a four year cycle without a “China ban” headline.
https://m.primal.net/OBsk.jpg

2025-01-26 11:27:32

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Morning Connie. Have a great Sunday.

2025-01-26 11:04:18

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Question is if the ability to course correct remains present in today’s environment.
For myself, I strongly believe that the proverbial Rubicon was cross during Covid. Far too much damage was wrought.

2025-01-24 02:48:26

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The road to calling the collapse of #China over the past two decades is littered with more dead bodies than I can count.
As for Zeihan, well, he is a grifter and knows his audience.
Demographics are certainly an issue, but it’s not just a China specific issue. It’s the same throughout Asia.
China is, at least looking to take action through an aggressive move towards automation. The thinking is that robotics will possibly alleviate the demographic issue to some extent.

2025-01-24 02:32:39

China Morning Missive
It is only just beginning. China is set to become the top foreign policy priority under the Trump administration.
While there is no question that China should be the top priority, how the Trump teams is choosing to go about working through that process is flawed.
Unlike all other geopolitical parties, America will need – and quickly – to come to realization that China has the ability to hit back. Conditions in 2025 are immensely different than in 2017. China has spent the past four years preparing for this very exact scenario.
A full on aggressive attack strategy will come with serious consequences. Thus far, I do not see this as being properly recognized by the Trump team.
The only solution is for there to be some sort of “Grand Bargain” and this will include American having to give up some ground.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-lawmakers-seek-end-chinas-special-trade-status-import-exemption-2025-01-23/

2025-01-23 00:52:22

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Yoga!!! I only wish the practice came into my life much sooner.
And to all you men out there, make it a mission to give yoga a try this year. It is truly life changing.

2025-01-21 09:26:34

Seems like chess moves are being made on multiple boards all over the the place.
Hard to keep up to be honest.
https://m.primal.net/NsbZ.jpg

2025-01-20 14:01:24

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Completely agree. Have spent literal decades of time attempting to “explain” #China to America’s. Last weeks interactions did more than I could have ever hoped for.
I tell everyone that I’m in near full agreement with all critiques leveled at China. It is the fact that the critiques are woefully incomplete in how they are delivered. Thats what’s been my Sisyphean journey.
China isn’t “nuanced”. China is just different. On all fronts.

2025-01-20 13:30:16

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This hurts me to my bones. Have followed Lewis from his first season as a Mercedes fan. Going to Team Red just … hurts.

2025-01-20 13:27:16

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That is great and I’ve been loving all the cultural interaction. If you have any further question on #China - or anyone else does - feel free to ask. I’ve been here (am American) for a long long time.

2025-01-20 09:04:09

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I say we try and put some positive energy out there. #freeross.
Are we accustomed to politicians lying? Sure. Then again, Trump isn’t your typical politician and he does better at knowing his audience.
I’ll even go so far as say he does act and pardons Ross on Day 1.

2025-01-17 05:33:55

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Agreed, but thankfully I am married to one. I do still infuriate her when I don’t follow her teachings as instructed.
See clip below.
https://m.primal.net/NkVn.mov

2025-01-17 05:09:33

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@npub1lxz…svxa just read your profile. Add to the conversation here please. The #Yoga journey is like no other, yes?
I have a small personal mission to get more men into doing yoga. Come for the Asana, stay for the real yoga journey.

2025-01-17 03:58:54

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Right? Yoga, for me, has been a real journey that started as a sort of exercise and then emerged into a totally new world.
The asana or movement aspect of yoga is just the tip of the iceberg.

2025-01-17 03:17:56

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Did you ever give yoga a go?
More men need to take up #yoga. I found it way too late in life. It has been a true game changer.

2025-01-17 02:59:13

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Yes. Replying to notes is where I’ve been derelict in my duty. Correcting that behavior immediately.

2025-01-17 02:25:40

Need to reiterate the following to any/all who are new to Nostr.
Engagement with the community is critical. A “lurker’s” mentality will result in a very sub-par experience.
Say whatever you want. Post notes on whatever is your subject matter expertise. Be weird, whatever that might mean. Just engage on a regular basis.
This is a message I have to keep reminding myself too.

2025-01-16 02:34:26

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That is awesome.
I would have loved to go into more depth, but knew better. Just made the case for Nostr as decentralized, moderation as a personal responsibility and the inability to ban.
Did finish my point by stating “Nostr has no CEO”.

2025-01-16 02:23:49

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Basically yes. They had no idea what “a Nostr” was and quickly pivoted to “what about Elon buying TikTok?”

2025-01-15 00:41:59

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Authenticity is truly the currency of the future. It is only time before that sets in for a great many.

2025-01-14 02:03:44

The irony of all ironies. The decision is made to ban Tik Tok (or 抖音 in Chinese) and what is it that you end up with? American content creators rabidly migrating over to the even larger social media platform in China (小红书）
https://m.primal.net/Nfch.jpg

2025-01-01 02:55:20

This is a fantastic video. Well worth the full 20 minutes.
“If you wish to understand the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration.” Nicola Tesla
And a very Happy New Year all!!
https://youtu.be/iGSiD1tRQzQ?si=9NtEqgqgIBGXGoyJ

2024-12-05 14:28:51

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Brother, there is a suit coming on this Vanguard fumble if there ever was.

2024-12-05 14:05:46

Has Vaguard opened to BTC ETFs yet?

2024-12-01 01:37:41

Trump choosing violence such as this isn’t much of a surprise. What this sort of message does though is singular. It’ll drive more nations into the arms of China.
The Global South doesn’t want to fight. As a group, they are looking for fairness and the American led “rules based order” isn’t fair by any stretch of the imagination.
China will reap the rewards of this unnecessary blunder.
https://m.primal.net/MlFB.jpg

2024-11-26 00:57:32

Can someone, anyone, tell me who is actually running the United States?
You have Biden approving weapons and an escalation of war on two fronts.
Now you have Trump coming out stating that tariffs are set to be levied on Canada, Mexico and China.
?????

2024-11-17 03:36:44

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Happens to me all the time and all I can think is ……
“When you find yourself in a hole, step one … stop digging.”

2024-11-17 03:24:07

Something’s I’ve never understood.
Why is it that people, when vehemently disagreeing, resort to ad hominem attacks?
I mean, I do understand why, and yet don’t understand how those taking the ad hominem route don’t see that doing so negates the position they are advocating. Counterproductive.

2024-11-14 09:16:59

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Ahhh. That explains it.

2024-11-14 06:47:20

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And the American policy is said to seek "aggressive reindustrialization" to better compete with #China?
Until it becomes a truly "gloves off" fight, there is just no way that America can compete. The beast needs to be unleashed. I have hope, but I don't have very high expectations.

2024-11-13 02:17:39

There’s been a lot of chatter about “China tariffs” of late. America wants there to be balanced trade. Sounds simple enough and it got me thinking, albeit rhetorically so. What is America’s single largest export category?
That would be weapons and arms. For 2023 this totaled $238bn. Oddly though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis doesn’t actually include this line item when collating the data. See below.
https://m.primal.net/MBZk.jpg

2024-11-11 04:12:19

Here we go…
https://m.primal.net/LzVj.jpg

2024-11-10 11:15:38

And to think that this, below, was making the rounds on social media two years ago today.
https://m.primal.net/Lyfw.jpg

2024-11-08 11:14:33

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Different age and different parenting. The hell and mayhem when I was growing up in the 70s would get my parents arrested today.

2024-11-08 10:40:11

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Yes, but all funds raised will be applied towards fully retiring “shadow banking” financing. Zero economic benefit.

2024-11-08 10:18:44

Once again, zero fiscal stimulus out of Beijing. Ignore the headlines and all the talking heads that focus entirely on the top line number.
As expected, what was announced was a massive local government debt restructuring program. The priority is to clean up “shadow banking” finances.
Left pocket is just paying the right pocket. Zero stimulative effect.
China announces $1.4 trillion package to tackle local governments' 'hidden' debt https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/08/china-expected-to-announce-highly-anticipated-fiscal-stimulus-package.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

2024-10-29 00:43:39

So Arthur Hayes has entered the chat. Damn long piece and if anyone out there knows the man, have him reach out to me when he has time.
While his analysis of how #China reached this point of pain is very accurate, his expectations of what will occur next is somewhat wide of the mark.
Having said that, he isn’t wrong that the P2P market in China is alive and well. Can attest to this from my own experience.
https://m.primal.net/LlUG.jpg

2024-10-28 13:29:36

On the plus side, it’s lovely to see how Western Union is getting smacked around.
https://m.primal.net/Lksr.jpg

2024-10-24 15:33:20

Not many people listen to my #China commentary.
For most, it’s deemed outside the norm. If Luke Gromen is the only one that takes these comments seriously then that is enough. https://image.nostr.build/d3162cefbac41cf7b88779fe7e7c764c483de3086062be95cbf0ca702987df0a.jpg

2024-10-23 08:54:44

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On the issue of mining, I don't have any first hand knowledge about what, if any, activity is taking place in #China.
That being said, I would strongly suspect that the government is almost certainty involved in mining. Optionality is the Chinese way and having some degree of capacity makes complete sense to me.
What I do know, and for certain, is that the P2P market to transact is very much alive and well and is done rather openly via WeChat.
Thanks for asking. I encourage anyone to reach out with any questions about China.

2024-10-23 03:17:06

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Oh for fucks sake ...... this article was written by Michael Pettis.
He has been so colossally wrong on his #China predictions for the better part of 20 years.
In fact, he infamously wrote a (at the time) well received op-ed in the Financial Times back in 2009 claiming that China's growth prospects were over. Moreover, the points he made in that piece are the very exact same arguments he is making in this Carnegie article.

2024-10-23 03:13:28

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This is a very simplistic way to make the comparison here in #China. What it is I would say for now is that Total Social Financing (TSF) includes bank loans to corporate entities and households. So, this doesn't make an apples-to-apples comparison to the US or elsewhere in terms of relatively to GDP.
Think of it this way. Very little in the way of lending in China is done via capital markets (ie the bond market). You would need, again for simplicity, to include in the US data all debt issued by all companies and all households (including mortgages) to get to a number that would be comparable to China's TSF.
But don't get me wrong. China has an overleverage issue and addressing this issue has been priority #1 of the government over the past three years.

2024-10-23 01:32:30

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And yet everyone out there continues to scream that #China needs to unleash a fiscal "bazooka".
The Chinese are the first to have learned that debt fueled growth isn't the answer. And yet, watching the world's second largest economy attempt to fundamentally shift its economic model in real time is fascinating. It is also not for certain that this process will succeed.
This is also your daily reminder that regardless of what it is you read, thus far all China has done is stimulate via monetary policy. There has been zero focus on the fiscal front. And there won't be.
I will not lie. It does please me to watch global economists continue to gnash teeth over how China refuses to listen to their collective "advice".

2024-10-22 01:59:00

Coming to you soon. The fastest growing social media platform in #China. Xiaohongshu, or Little Red Book (I'm not joking).
The Tik Tok killer will be another Chinese app. Ironic.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-21/xiaohongshu-social-media-app-defying-china-s-tech-slump?srnd=homepage-asia&sref=lgMFFI0d

2024-10-21 11:43:35

This - right here - is the only “number go up technology” I care about. #hashrate
And a +4% upward adjustment coming tomorrow. @npub15n9…qru4
https://m.primal.net/LdGX.jpg

2024-10-21 03:10:54

If this isn't a coincidence, it most certainly demonstrates that fate does have a very twisted sense of humor.
The BRICS event is happening this week, the very same week that the IMF/World Bank are holding their annual meeting.
One in Washington DC and the other in Kazan, Russia.
This is a great piece by the SCMP highlighting the moment in time for which we are living.
Tagging @npub1trr…hdpu because, well it just makes sense.
https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3282759/brics-summit-vs-imf-world-bank-meetings-global-divide-clear?module=latest&pgtype=homepage

2024-10-21 00:36:24

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Ok, here is the video titled "This is How the Chinese See the US in 2024"
This video is for all of you out there honestly looking to understand not just how Chinese view the US, but looking to assess to what degree the Chinese are free to express their opinions.
When they get to the issue of Tik Tok I couldn't help but laugh.
If there is one video out there I share with people asking me this very set of questions, it is THIS video. It runs 20 minutes long, and is worth every single minute spent of your time.
My take away was just how knowledgeable the Chinese are about America. If you watch the video, ask yourself if the same series of questions were asked about China of the average American could they answer? I'm fairly confident the answer would be a resounding no.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCiEyGpBSu8

2024-10-21 00:29:49

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That some interesting data, although I've never been one to place much faith in the whole "Google Trends" story line.
All I can share is that here in #China I've not met anyone else using Nostr. beyond my wife and a very select few friends. Then again, it isn't something that I am out and about asking.
Now, what I would add is that access to the global internet by Chinese citizens is pretty robust. VPNs are rather prevalent even if access can be spotty from time to time..
On that point, I'll send through a fantastic video shortly. It's a "man on the street" interview and - even for me - it was very eye opening.

2024-10-18 09:37:39

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That’s what I thought. Have a feeling that my DMs don’t work for whatever reason.

2024-10-18 09:31:55

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Also, pinged you a DM if you haven’t seen it let me know.

2024-10-18 09:31:13

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This increasingly looks to be accurate. PBoC stepped in again today.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-kicks-off-112-billion-funding-schemes-support-stock-market-2024-10-18/

2024-10-17 11:46:27

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Fuck. I just spat out my whiskey.

2024-10-17 11:45:07

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But he’s not wrong.

2024-10-17 08:08:05

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When you have time have a read through my post history. That’ll give you a decent sense of the current situation.
Been slammed this week and haven’t been able to provide updates.
Will do so as soon as I’m up from under the deluge of work.
Based on #Shanghai for reference.

2024-10-17 07:18:44

I’m curious.
Are there people out there who honestly think HODL originated as an acronym for Hold On for Dear Life?

2024-10-14 08:11:03

When in search of a reason might as well pick one at random.
That said, hard to connect the dots between China and price action of the King.
https://m.primal.net/LVdP.jpg

2024-10-12 08:57:20

When did the Art of the Debate turn into a screaming match?
Is it just impossible today to have a difference of opinion, share those opinions in a respectful manner and then leave without there being any animosity?

2024-10-11 03:16:32

How is it that everyone has become a #China expert over the past two weeks.
The sheer degree of errant perspectives has boggled my mind.
Allow me to share with you one very important takeaway from all my time living in the Middle Kingdom.
The longer you live and/or study China, the less you realize you understand.
Vent over.

2024-10-09 01:16:23

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Wait. I am shocked that while engaging with a "journalist", their actual objectives were obfuscated and true intentions never directly made clear.
And by "shocked", I mean not shocked at all......

2024-10-08 01:47:48

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Just to be sure, you would have clearly noticed that everyone is back to "work" in #China and by that I mean clamoring to buy into this nutty market.
And yes, not only here for the 2015 madness, but was also around for the even crazier 2007 market run up. Now THAT was a fun time.
For the here and now, will just have to wait and see how all of this plays out.

2024-10-06 10:13:58

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Actually, all it’s been so far is monetary support. Been no formal fiscal even though all you read all over is that there has been some sort of fiscal support. And there’s been no direct to household support.
This NDRC press conference could lead to more insight to the fiscal side of things.

2024-10-06 09:55:25

The NDRC has now announced plans for a press conference on Tuesday morning.
A somewhat unexpected move, although possibly a step up from the Ministry of Finance in that the NDRC - as is typical in its role - could provide clarity in terms of government plans to support the economy. I’d expect the focus to be on the property sector.
Whatever the mode, a continued stream of communications will almost certainly keep the animal spirits for equities for in overdrive.
https://m.primal.net/LMpd.jpg

2024-10-04 14:43:07

Hey @npub1xts…kk5s Just a quiet word of thanks for bringing Nostr to the world.
Love you man.
Namaste

2024-10-04 14:18:36

I am so confused.
Came back from dinner and found my phone had blown up with a link I was included to.
Thank you of course.
And if anyone has questions about #China feel free to hit me up here.
#note18qq…5wt8

2024-10-03 01:39:35

Became a grandfather today.
And this here, this little girl, is exactly why all of us are here!!! https://image.nostr.build/a51833fd122ecbcda928f6af8571d0e73dc4d32410ae2f3fd61a95a8f30c75f0.jpg

2024-09-30 01:57:38

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I felt the very same. Then, one day, I stumbled into Yoga. My man, I can’t even begin to stress to you the benefits if you take up yoga.
I was the person who scoffed at the idea many moons ago. Thought it was only “exercise for women”.
My God was I wrong.

2024-09-28 02:58:48

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It’s been a pretty insane week my man.
Basic reason for the massive surge in the Chinese markets was the government unleashing a ton of monetary stimulative policies. May also be a follow up shot of fiscal support before the National Day holiday.

2024-09-25 05:10:21

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Have you watch at all the games America played recently in Pakistan by holding an IMF "loan" hostage???
The squeeze was so tight that Prime Minister Sharif began engaging with China for funding. The quid-pro-quo there, however, was that China wanted access to the Gwadar port including - possibly - the right to host certain military assets.
America/IMF blinked and the IMF "loan" was made.

2024-09-24 03:31:36

For those of you who might be interested, below is a cheat sheet of sorts regarding the announced policy change by the Chinese PBoC. Shout out to the team here at Z-Ben Advisors. They do all the heavy lifting. I'm nothing more than a glorified salesman.
cc @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1cj9…0efa @npub1s5y…6q7z
The announcement measures include:
1. 50bps cut on RRR. A further 25 to 50bps cut before the end of the year will be depending on economic conditions.
2. 20bps cut on 7-day repo rate.
3. A new stock market support facility (a swap program with brokers, insurers, FMCs for A-share investments); a special-purpose relending program for the banks to provide lending to listed companies and their major shareholders for buybacks.
4. 50bps cut on the outstanding mortgage rate. The downpayment ratio for second home is cut to 15% from 25%.
5. CSRC to announce supportive policies on long-term capital’s A-share investments and listed companies’ M&A activities.
6. CSRC to further optimize equity fund registration and promote broad market-based passive fund innovation.
7. NFRA to arrange the core tier-1 capital increase of the 6 large banks.
8. NFRA to expand its commercial banks’ subsidiary financial institutions’ equity investment pilot.
9. PBoC to support commercial banks buying land from property developers.
10. Optimizing the affordable housing relending program. PBoC’s share of capital commitment in the 300bn program is increased to 100% from 60%.
11. Corporate lending renewal policies.
Not a material change to the monetary policy framework.
Nothing on property developer bailout.
The A-share market support facility is interesting, but we need to wait for the actual rules, which will specify its size and terms. But this should further boost the ETFs.
NFRA’s bank capital increase and CSRC’s M&A encouragement are the things to watch.
Will see if MoF will do a heavyweight press conference soon.
Edit: Pan added just now: as for the swap facility with brokers, insurers and FMCs, the phase-one quota is RMB500bn. Accepted collateral include bond, equity ETF and CSI300 index’s underlying stocks. Institutions will receive treasuries and central bank notes for A-share investments. PBoC is open to further expansion of the facility.
Pan also said they are studying the possibility of a stabilization fund when answering a reporter.
CSRC chairman said CSRC will further support Central Huijin’s buying.

2024-09-24 01:05:23

The definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and again expecting a different result.
The head of China's central bank is set to give a press conference this morning and - once again - all the talk is of a policy shift (finally) in favor of stimulating the economy.
Keynes is dead in China. This has been made crystal clear time and again over the past two years. I expect there will be nothing material out of this press conference.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/chinas-central-bank-chief-set-to-hold-press-conference-days-after-fed-rate-cut.html

2024-09-24 01:00:34

Was reminded of a great saying from back in the day.
"Suck it up buttercup."
The 70s were such special time.

2024-09-22 02:10:40

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Iron Giant

2024-09-20 02:48:45

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The Chinese economy has been under pressure for the better part of two years. During that time there have been countless calls by your typical economists for China to take fiscal and monetary measures to address the issue. Basically, do what American and Europe have done for decades.
China, and this is open to debate, has looked around at other nations and learned that the Keynesian approach doesn't solve underlying structural issues. It only postpones the inevitable. What is needed is pain and the Chinese leadership has made the policy choice of aggressively deleveraging its economy. Think Japan, but doing so over a few years rather than 30 years.
What isn't known is if this approach will actually work. The Chinese are, indeed, feeling pain. There will come a time when that pain proves to be unbearable. Don't think we are there yet based on what I see here in Shanghai and from various conversations. Still, the needle needs to be thread carefully.
Hope this answers your question.

2024-09-20 01:28:38

Well the PBoC decided to hold rates intact.
Expect a ton of “talking heads” to lose their shit over this decision.
For me, just more evidence that Keynes is well and truly dead in China.
https://m.primal.net/KvNy.jpg

2024-09-18 14:07:19

Harvest full moon over Shanghai.
https://m.primal.net/KtrF.jpg

2024-09-10 02:30:27

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Primarily, the thinking is that DJI represents a "national security threat". I'm sure there is some truth to that, but what I see - and a developing pattern - is that the American government is using such tactics in an attempt to protect domestic players.
That said, American drone manufactures, to quote the Wall Street Journal
"In the first war to feature small drones prominently, American companies still have no meaningful presence. Made-in-America drones tend to be expensive, glitchy and hard to repair, said drone company executives, Ukrainians on the front lines, Ukrainian government officials and former U.S. defense officials.
Absent solutions from the West, Ukraine has turned to cheaper Chinese products to fill its drone arsenal."

2024-09-10 02:22:28

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Correct and from DJI which makes pretty much 80% of the worlds recreational drones (and I'm sure other sorts of drones as well).