Ok I've done some thinking and this has to be it. My model for Bitcoin fair value in dollars is an exponential times an exponential times a logistic function.
Dollars are printed exponentially. Worldwide wealth grows exponentially. Bitcoin approaches worldwide wealth logistically. Boom. Simple. That looks a lot like a power law early on, but these are the underlying things actually driving the long term price movements. It's not really a power law in the long run.
After hyperbitcoinization, real purchasing power goes up with global productivity and so is exponential. The dollar value of BTC will probably be a faster exponential because of the issuance of dollars, even if the Fed is able to slow its issuance to a very low inflation rate in order to remain relevant. Right now the price is that fast exponential scaled by a logistic growth factor which is nowhere near 1.0 yet. Lost coins might be an exponential also.
Math people can plug in the numbers to fit the empirical data thus far for various fits and projected hyperbitcoinization (logistic factor=1) dates. I have no clue what the constants would be for the logistic function but I have a general intuitive sense for how it might play out in the coming decades.
#PowerLaw #Bitcoin #PricePrediction
Kevin's Bacon
npub18h…d8059
2024-11-07 00:47:55
Author Public Key
npub18hdy2qy2qwga0ye7rtnucwuyf07erjfdmm7s74wwdt7sy4mk7tdsdd8059Published at
2024-11-07 00:47:55Event JSON
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"content": "Ok I've done some thinking and this has to be it. My model for Bitcoin fair value in dollars is an exponential times an exponential times a logistic function.\n\nDollars are printed exponentially. Worldwide wealth grows exponentially. Bitcoin approaches worldwide wealth logistically. Boom. Simple. That looks a lot like a power law early on, but these are the underlying things actually driving the long term price movements. It's not really a power law in the long run.\n\nAfter hyperbitcoinization, real purchasing power goes up with global productivity and so is exponential. The dollar value of BTC will probably be a faster exponential because of the issuance of dollars, even if the Fed is able to slow its issuance to a very low inflation rate in order to remain relevant. Right now the price is that fast exponential scaled by a logistic growth factor which is nowhere near 1.0 yet. Lost coins might be an exponential also.\n\nMath people can plug in the numbers to fit the empirical data thus far for various fits and projected hyperbitcoinization (logistic factor=1) dates. I have no clue what the constants would be for the logistic function but I have a general intuitive sense for how it might play out in the coming decades.\n\n#PowerLaw #Bitcoin #PricePrediction",
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