Houston

Ex-TradFi trader. Master of crayons. 🖍️ In the game of trading crypto for more Bitcoin. 💸 Writing about what I observe, think and trade. 🔭

Public Key

npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33

NIP-05 Address

houston@nostrplebs.com

NIP-57 Address

houston@getalby.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqspz3kqmtlmyh9qdgn63unzgy5kx4cpqpc94yupehf5gy8p76k9encpr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet57caefk

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nostr-pub.wellorder.net

Author Public Key

npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33

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Last Notes

2024-08-05 18:34:04

As always, most market pundits and mainstream content creators missed the sell-off, leading their followers into the proverbial slaughterhouse.
Market Musings - Bear Market Update https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/market-musings-bear-market-update?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2024-05-09 18:38:58

Another week has passed, and the Bitcoin/ crypto markets continue to trade within a tight range, lacking a significant catalyst to break out.
Let's dive into the current dynamics and some of the failed narratives.
https://m.primal.net/IEzl.png
https://houstonwehaveaprob.substack.com/p/market-musings-quiet-and-rangebound?r=2tki10

2024-05-06 18:20:40

Financial privacy is a fundamental right that safeguards individual autonomy, security, and trust in the digital age.
Arm yourself with the right Bitcoin tools to help secure your financial sovereignty.
👁️‍🗨️ Read more about adapting to the ever-changing landscape of privacy in my latest article: “Privacy Matters: Adapting to the Evolving Bitcoin Ecosystem” on my stack.
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/privacy-matters-adapting-to-the-evolving?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

2024-05-02 19:11:23

- reply

Too funny i was just brushing off my JAM app and watching this earlier.
Hope this means we find a lot more liquidity on Join Market. 🤞

2024-04-26 18:31:08

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Bravo ser. 😂

2024-04-23 23:21:03

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Aqua and Fedi Bravo. 👍🏻

2024-04-22 12:38:59

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https://houstonwehaveaprob.substack.com/p/market-musings-charting-the-course?r=2tki10

2024-04-22 12:24:42

gm - We made it past the Halving without a sell-off!
I've dusted off my price action charts and crayons for $BTCUSD. - let's see where we go from here. 🖍️
Market Musings - Charting the Course: Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis Post-Halving
https://m.primal.net/HyeK.png

2024-04-18 18:47:50

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I think it may be as well. 👍

2024-04-18 13:21:28

Will the Bitcoin halving be a sell-the-news event? 🟢🔴
Right now on Manifold it's pretty evenly split.
Comment on your opinion! 🙏
https://manifold.markets/HoustonxMTL/will-bitcoin-btcusd-close-green-or?r=SG91c3RvbnhNVEw
$BTCUSD

2024-04-15 01:25:11

Buy when there’s blood in the streets
https://m.primal.net/HvNU.png
https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/buy-when-theres-blood-in-the-streets?r=2tki10&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true…

2023-10-24 15:48:54

Finally, the monthly inside bar and up continues to play out so while we may see some profit-taking in the short term the best course of action remains to look at dips as buying opportunities for trend continuation.
https://m.primal.net/HOWj.png
#bitcoin

2023-10-24 15:48:27

On the upside, we have the 38547 area which has some structure that is likely to be tested if we can break upwards.
https://m.primal.net/HOWh.png

2023-10-24 15:47:11

#Bitcoin chart update.
$BTC goes momo-up on the quarterly.
This is not an ideal scenario as it leaves behind some weak market structure that tends to get retested.
Anyone who chased the last couple of sessions will likely find themselves shortly underwater.
https://m.primal.net/HOWe.png

2023-10-24 14:54:16

Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things.
#bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HOWV.png

2023-10-23 15:24:20

Watch $BTC last quarter's pivots carefully.
Will #Bitcoin break last quarter's high and go momo up?
Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024?
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/w/wtjXDjR0.png
#trading

2023-10-23 15:07:10

VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bkvpIYyT.png
Times like this are notable.
The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn't hold on to the gains.
Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/vivygTTl.png
It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities.
So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately?
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/IvQrW2EA.png
Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?

2023-10-23 13:50:49

Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down.
USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OjPXXNIK.png
What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥
https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m

2023-10-16 13:40:21

The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣
https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1711841625431789762?s=20

2023-10-16 13:24:35

$BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play.
We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I'm watching to fill.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/Rl9A71Fd.png

2023-10-11 12:55:35

As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅
Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅
The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈
https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc
Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal.
A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ABouxUvr.png
#Bitcoin #trading

2023-10-09 17:20:13

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Nice episode Stephan. 👍
One part that wasn't 100% clear to me is around the counterparty risk associated with the premiums collected from the market maker - Calypso?
When I sell a covered call option on Atomic Finance, where does the premium that the buyer pays me go? Is it locked in the DLC along with the collateral, or is it held somewhere else?

2023-10-06 12:59:47

PSA -
Markets don't bottom on Fridays. 📉

2023-10-06 12:58:08

NFP #'s came in way too hot. 🔥
It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a slowdown in rate hikes if it continues its "data-dependent" stance.
Look at the reaction on the US 10 year yields.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bz2GNoSA.png

2023-10-03 18:11:00

Thanks for playing along.
$SPY $VIX
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4ExjazEu.png

2023-10-03 14:58:15

So you thought it was going to be up-only Uptober? Think again.
Looking back at the average weekly returns for $BTC since 2010, week 40 has traditionally been a weak week.
So if you subscribe to seasonality, this week should mark the local bottom.
If you're a more active trader, you can start looking for bottoming formations that, if they work, will provide good asymmetric upside.
https://m.primal.net/HMdQ.png
#trading #Bitcoin

2023-10-02 14:19:43

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🤣

2023-10-02 13:57:18

By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC.
https://image.nostr.build/ee37d6fc7c7503fee5417d323017198540ca815e21a102ec12796c86f219e044.jpg
An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive?
Was the following month and the rest of the year positive?
Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns.
After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October.
All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December.
So on net, seasonally, it hasn't paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4.
https://image.nostr.build/99443a09b7dba87aca009a93b728038d490f330fd74dc92c3d0d2bb68ccef3d1.png

2023-10-02 13:11:05

$BTC has some poor market structure in the 28970-29100 area from the previous selloff that is likely to be retested.
Any shorts still holding will have seen their profits evaporate and will likely throw in the towel at this point.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LEQFNvM7.png
#BTC #trading

2023-09-27 18:07:03

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Reformed or let's say evolved stratter. 😁
Price action is one of the tools in the toolbox. 🛠️

2023-09-27 18:01:18

We're in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉
$VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion.
Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area.
$SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it's run from 415-459.
$SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420.
#trading
https://image.nostr.build/e207151009dcc586a8551462d17c486a535d657fbe75f17c0a3ab5954165a56c.jpg
https://image.nostr.build/8ddbf69b423bb5ad4a753873297c175185cc9e0e3bd314f0cb73cb8581105f2f.png

2023-09-26 15:59:45

This is how I would draw the current BF playing out on $VIX.
There will be time to fade vol - just wait for some vol sellers to be put on stretchers first.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/Lu3HfnrP.png

2023-09-26 13:47:42

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lnbc10u1pj39c8npp5ue84rfxen2phskfctl2525gn228hcf8zru6z8t9yhfdwlk5dm3hsdq5g9kxy7fqd9h8vmmfvdjscqzzsxqyz5vqsp5fj7tt6egjdaprzrcfrvqpkxk4hwrryw7g87wd8x4qjp7vppe3k3q9qyyssq9yda52qprpw0y382rs4wv65temegr0g3j2psftturz8q9nen86f9rly6z2fl5y5nam4ucyc7jus5lqn9l2sftrpmwsmg3egym2zlvvcpcnu625

2023-09-26 13:25:24

gm
Here's today's PSA.
Risk off continues - $JNK and $HYG have both gone outside-inside month and down.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LuJBJlir.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/ckampl79.png
This has been on the radar for some time and is now confirmed.
Act accordingly.
https://primal.net/e/note1ecvx93ajhp6q0jewxaz6pg2c48sx4zxvnfyve0mjjs569pdvqpcq2kumsu

2023-09-26 13:03:50

https://image.nostr.build/42e266edf160175fecf4e60983c853e484e00c4f30d614a7bf752a270e3d542e.png

2023-09-25 15:36:27

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When it comes to studying price, it's important to recognize that price oscillates between periods of consolidation and expansion.
As it relates specifically to $VIX, it's good to understand that there is a huge cottage industry of traders who run a gamut of volatility selling strategies that are akin to picking up pennies in front of a train.
Most of the time these options sellers pick up those proverbial pennies, but there are those periods when volatility does not revert and these traders get run over.
In this situation, when I use the term range expansion, I am describing 2 scenarios.
1 - $VIX is now trading above and through its average monthly range (light blue line).
This does not occur often, but you can see on the chart that when $VIX closes above this monthly range, it tends to lead to further price expansion.
2 - Range expansion also describes a sequence of price action involving broadening formations (shown in red) where price moves from one side of the range to the other. TLDR - The markets are an auction mechanism that seeks liquidity aka stops, which is why we often experience periods of higher highs and lower lows.

2023-09-25 14:22:23

Hold on to your top hats, things are about to get bumpy.
$VIX range expansion underway.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/gbYALgMV.png

2023-09-25 14:01:40

Watch out - USDJPY heading for multi-year highs.
Remember that of all the G10 nations, Japan is furthest along the path of monetary experimentation.
Daily - https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YC2XxMmZ.png
3 x outside-inside and break to the upside.
The triple outside bar is noteworthy as we can now certainly expect a range extension.
Weekly -https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fvULYpA1.png
The weekly chart shows a continuation of the momo up condition. We will see how long this condition will last.
Putting this out there as a possibility - but a re-test of the 200 pivot is a long term possibility and would likely be the result of a very large macro event.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/m/m7GTnXm1.png

2023-09-22 13:32:31

GM
Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-09-21 15:32:49

$JNK $HYG update
You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk.
They are both closing in on going outside month and down. 🔻
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FAE9iBqJ.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0KgEt16C.png
There are still 8 days remaining in the month and quarter. Will we trigger before the end of the month and quarter? Keep watching carefully. 👀
https://iris.to/note1xtmcxqs0h0psjccnxfak9ecl2pl57p9tya2875qrnjqk7s6c5stsgz4jnc

2023-09-21 13:44:03

$TLT - long bond update.
$TLT broke below last year's lows.
https://image.nostr.build/bad642bbda7609b021f78551e988c218522577832cdad8f6489eefa02883f796.png
Wild to see $TLT retrace all the way back to 2006 levels.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/Ym4dEWcB.png
______
I posted the following over a month ago:
https://iris.to/note1pn500p47g69779zzd8pg6uk64hn70s2dnlhtzmnwg88dkj9ur27stafx5a

2023-09-20 12:17:32

Kaching - thanks for playing. 🎰💸
Taking some profits here on the $ETHBTC trade before FOMC this afternoon.
There's more downside possible but taking some chips off the table.
#trading #btc #eth
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3JgvLwcE.png

2023-09-12 14:06:15

$ETHBTC update.
The long $BTC, short $ETH trade continues to play out. 💸
https://image.nostr.build/1992b774fd48980e2b011f83ce9fe3a26b05e27cfea52827d22163197959f906.png
https://iris.to/note1gwqn2qc5tkl7v50wmw7ej6v6tlwj9crzw8uhlh95ntjl6prxxp4q4y9v0m

2023-09-11 15:27:40

Markets always move slower than you want, but faster than you expect.

2023-09-11 14:56:02

Top of the morning. ☕
1370 here we come.
Currently short a bunch of shitcoins and waiting to see how the market reacts to the macro news on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the potential supply coming from FTX.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/ltJQ2z0S.png

2023-09-08 15:51:40

Pay attention.
The USDJPY and USDCNH are on the verge of new cycle highs.
Say hello to the USD wrecking ball. 💣
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/EeaZ1Neo.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ArsEiA5t.png

2023-09-08 13:34:04

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I'm pointing out the next significant pivot.
17.30 marks the outside bar high.
Outside bars are fractal broadening formations .
So that pivot both attracts and repels - if we trade close we will likely trade to and through that pivot.

2023-09-07 13:35:13

Not enough people are talking about it.
The high-yield bond ETFs $JNK and $HYG are both trading outside-inside on the monthly chart and consolidating at the precipice.
If we see a break of last month's outside bar to the downside, watch out. 👀
This means that the market is expecting more defaults or lower recoveries from junk bonds, which could be caused by factors such as higher interest rates, a worsening economy, lower earnings, or more volatility, and drive investors into safer risk assets. 📈📉
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OnV4mqZU.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DmAAjGcW.png

2023-09-07 13:09:14

https://image.nostr.build/322af2429fd3363b15548dc731d9a207ace710659260ecb09416b1f7dbbb23d3.jpg

2023-09-07 13:03:39

Alright $VIX reclaimed the 15.45 level.
Now watch to see if we reclaim the 17.30 pivots.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/7/7ajATOJA.png

2023-09-06 18:33:17

A truly fascinating sequence of price action is unfolding.
On the daily chart we are trading within the range defined by the big down bar that was formed on August 17th.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5ZHL3tRO.png
To the layman's eye, it looks like we are just chopping around, but we are actually trading at an inflection point that is precipitating a big price move.
One way the chop is expressed in the price action is as a series of widening formations with higher highs and lower lows, which is kryptonite for traders using horizontal levels or previous pivots for stop losses.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/krCV1Niw.png
What usually precedes big moves are choppy periods that chop up the majority of traders who are jockeying for the next move but eventually capitulate before the big move happens. Once the move is finally underway, those left behind are forced to chase the price or fear missing out on the price action they so desperately wanted to be ahead of.
Finally, take a look at the 1628 pivot. Notice how we've been chopping around this level?
Zoom out to the 3M chart and you can see that 1628 is the reversal pivot on the quarterly chart - which has become a battleground for buyers and sellers.
When the 1628 pivot gives way, we should see much lower prices.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/HEckmDRR.png
The major timeframes are all trading 🔴 so my expectation is that this period of consolidation will eventually resolve to the downside and we visit the 1370 pivot as I have noted previously on my feed.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fYaTrMrc.png
$BTC is trading in a very similar structure to $ETH, so I expect both $BTC and $ETH to resolve the consolidation in a similar manner.
#BTC #ETH #trading #plebchain

2023-09-06 17:52:35

As noted last week, the $VIX reversed and is now inching its way back up and tagged the 15 handle.
Expect some more volatility ahead as we come back through the range.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3UmBhOu8.png
https://iris.to/note1g08rd2q7wfeeas99mqjuclry8qn4m8ngg8rqx4xqyyjyraw6s64q6kf6yp

2023-08-31 15:15:52

https://cdn.nostr.build/i/4b0058563145775f92d5f7451fea78c9794ccbbb437351c0969bdcfcf93ade14.jpg

2023-08-31 14:41:41

Looks like Ideogram has made some serious progress in cracking the AI text-generating code.
https://ideogram.ai/api/images/direct/ZexKKAgiTRqX_gt89btqfg
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/25890926424339ef43cbbbaece7f02a540b87c867264e5c77029c5e1b50411af.jpg

2023-08-31 13:12:18

If the US 10 YY breaks over yesterday's high then the 4.206 is the next likely pivot in play.
Pay attention to what this could mean for the broader market if the market follows this pivot.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/S3JpsxuU.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/D9G7w4tj.png

2023-08-30 14:37:32

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This is the way.

2023-08-29 20:47:33

Call it a slow-motion rug pull. 🦥🐌
Over 170 years ago in January of 1862, United States representative from Ohio, George Pendleton, took the floor and declared that if the members of Congress were to disengage money’s material moorings in gold and silver, they would -
https://i.imgur.com/TnhbDqn.png
From "The Money Plot" by F. Kaufman (2020)

2023-08-29 18:36:53

I’m about half way through The Money Plot from F. Kaufman.
So far it’s been pretty wide recounting of the history and use case of money and has some novel stories I haven’t read elsewhere.
I will post a thorough review when I’m done. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/407d369043691ffed16384134b9b25691aaec2267431752532ac1079bbed231e.jpg

2023-08-29 17:45:29

Always some poor soul buying the breakout at the local top. 😓
#BTC #trading #plebchain
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DkhJVOHe.png

2023-08-29 16:53:10

I was wondering how the FOMO Momo up condition on the US 10YY would be extinguished.
This is how FOMO rallies end.
Now i'm watching to see how the US 2 and 10 close out month and set up into September.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LLUA3th4.png

2023-08-29 16:49:06

I'm seeing a lot of FOMO across markets - we're setting up for some late longs to get washed out. 🌊🚽

2023-08-29 16:46:32

$ETHBTC update
We have ourselves a decent BF playing out and have a clear target near the bottom trendline.
Remember that price drives narratives, so as the price action unfolds, watch for the narratives that get concocted along the way.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/N5Hqvgai.png

2023-08-29 16:40:21

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My bleeding eyes - ser, this is a chart crime.
Please show axis and scale. 📈📉

2023-08-29 15:53:06

Don't be fooled into chasing the price here.
A lot of poor market structure is being left behind, so we are likely to retest the breakout area for liquidity.

2023-08-28 13:24:14

gm
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9768a816db3f1956c554cb149d13213e4aaa848280b36f512498081e4b2d3a66.jpg

2023-08-25 17:31:47

Repeat after me - "Markets don't bottom on Fridays".

2023-08-25 14:36:34

US 2-year yields about to make new cycle highs.
Here comes the US dollar wrecking ball. 💣
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/56p8SxaG.png
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/Dd3BkGcO.png

2023-08-23 18:35:31

Here's one of my all-time favorite trading quotes from a not-so-well-known book called Phantom of the Pits.
"The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad."

2023-08-23 14:46:57

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🤞

2023-08-23 01:15:39

I took profits on all my shorts and started nibbling away at the longs. 💰
We had the proverbial flush then vacuum followed by buyers stepping in.
If you've been following along then you know that I've been short from much higher levels and in the short to medium term I think the better R:R skews to the upside.
My younger trading self would often be greedy or fearful to exit winning positions, but years of repetition have made me comfortable with tactical exits because I know my method will allow me to get back into the trade should price action continue to trend.
#BTC #trading
https://i.imgur.com/lsmywt0.png

2023-08-22 16:37:10

Smoked chicken wings with salsa verde. 😋 https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9a77a92709ad4bc6e4c3451559b58c3d6aa22588aa87b1699189973a4162e7b9.jpg

2023-08-22 16:16:43

Still net short and waiting for breadth to get extended before I cover.
https://i.imgur.com/hCKECML.png

2023-08-22 14:29:00

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💯- but somehow these token schemes attract the fiat minded like a moth to a flame. When will it ever end? 😂

2023-08-22 14:12:43

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Speaking of social websites, @npub1qny…95gx, i'd love to hear your take on friend.tech. 🤣

2023-08-22 13:43:01

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Agreed definitely a level worth watching. 👍
If BNB breaks under the 183 pivot it will go inside year and down and opens the floodgates for a lot more selling and puts the 35 pivot in play which would be wild.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/Ut9yVHR0.png

2023-08-21 18:57:53

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In French, they're called saule pleureur.
Reminds me of Monet's painting of the same name.
https://www.christies.com/PresscenterImages/10481/CLAUDE%20MONET_SAULE%20PLEUREUR.jpg

2023-08-21 18:51:04

Playing with #Nunchuk.
I never knew that multi-sig could be so easy.
Thanks @npub1rxy…hnp8 for the tutorials. 🫡
https://i.imgur.com/J9OIOre.png

2023-08-21 15:51:03

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I've been using mine for years but when things go wrong they really go wrong. 🤣

2023-08-21 14:21:31

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where is this?

2023-08-17 00:36:58

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Everyone should get one of these. 💪
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/6e7c65e9afb7346777476af3cefcb01c9599726dd85b4444a6bf3cfd86a3addd.jpg

2023-08-16 20:48:12

Here's the current book.
Trimmed some profits and now trailing.
Breadth measures are low but not yet extended so now waiting for some extreme readings and price to confirm before looking to accumulate.
https://i.imgur.com/tihYRx2.png

2023-08-15 14:08:51

This doesn't portend well.
Long bond - $TLT -
Weekly inside bar and down.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cJkLL9bf.png
The downtrend accelerated with the double inside quarter and down. We are likely to visit the recent lows and lower and see some price discovery.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/ihm31ILX.png
Zooming all the way out and $TLT is still trading year so it will be interesting to watch if it remains in last year's range or not.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/VoMPMu38.png

2023-08-11 17:12:55

Kaching - as posted earlier we now have higher highs and lower lows.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0NzTy7Y1.png
https://iris.to/note1ljxjvns93et4ufnvzj5vj0wge9q27596ep9g2leuvmeghvttnugshazu26💸

2023-08-11 15:27:41

The game gets easier once you understand broadening formations exist.
Then it gets down to execution.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/f0Mxc7Nw.png

2023-08-10 19:08:25

Back to posting charts on nostr!
$BTC update
We got the 3-month reversal - momo-up reversal - which now puts the 24825 pivot in play.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/sffMihAB.png
The multiple outside bars have caught a lot of traders offside.
This is when zooming out to a higher timeframe helps see the forest through the trees.
On the 12-month - $BTC is clearly trading inside year and it's very unlikely we break that range.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/04s05Jsz.png
Tactically, this still means that on a risk-adjusted basis, it's still best to sell rips and buy dips.
If you're a longer-term trader/investor then keep some gun powder dry, don't chase as you will have opportunities to buy $BTC at cheaper prices.

2023-05-18 02:13:13

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Thanks all who DM’ed.
The winner has been contacted.

2023-04-05 01:24:51

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I don't see the D-1-1-2D?

2023-04-05 01:21:25

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That's right. The lower low often is the better entry for several reasons:
- stops out early bottom pickers
- completes the A-B-C extension
- sets up for the potential double bottom
- sets up for a potential bullish divergence on various indicators.
Note the 2D-RDR-L that formed at the bottom and the recent 2D-RDR-S at the top of the range.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/x5qnQF2i.png

2023-03-31 03:31:01

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🤣

2023-03-28 22:59:55

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1500000

2023-03-27 15:42:46

Interestingly, gold seems to be leading $BTC.
This will be something worth watching moving forward.
Gold triggered the daily inside down bar before the reversal in $BTC.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KftREB6r.png
60m - Outside-Inside-Inside sequence triggered the break to the downside.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/uiQAdNue.png

2023-03-27 15:36:59

$BTC update
5 trading days remain in March and Q1 and I think the most likely scenario is we see some end-of-quarter selling and end the week red.
Next week I will be very interested to see how the price trades in relation to the weekly open AND the monthly/quarterly open.
The beginning of each quarter is one of the most opportune times for buyers/sellers to take control and align across all time frames.
Daily - $BTC inside bar reversal to the downside.
$BTC had been bouncing off the upper BF trendline but now trading below the trendline - watch to see if the trendline is reclaimed.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/aWJLvpeN.png
2 Day - $BTC outside inside and down.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/EZpeTdSf.png

2023-03-23 01:35:32

Well I hope you heeded the warning -
https://i.imgur.com/iskNqX6.png
#[0]
These things play out like clockwork.
Take some time to study past FOMC's and it will help you scenario plan.
As a trading mentor once told me everything you need to know about trading is right in front of you.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bB1bn8B1.png

2023-03-22 18:18:37

As noted earlier - We got the 60m outside bar.
#[0]
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/9/94lLIHVZ.png
Now the question is how does it resolve?
Still could go either way - all eyes on Powell at 230pm EST. 👀

2023-03-22 18:16:30

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Fed Open Market Committee
The US Fed raised 25bps inline with expectations on the Street.
Now the world waits to see what Powell has to say during his press conference at 230 EST. 😂

2023-03-22 17:03:01

$BTC update
1 hour and change before the FOMC announcement.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/nwVNZ1l8.png
Daily - $BTC currently inside day and up.
60m - $BTC going momo up (weak market structure).
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/niDgbY30.png
We will likely see a 60m outside bar post-FOMC so be prepared for a sell $BTC post-FOMC scenario.
The buyers are currently in control so if the price breaks back into yesterday's highs, watch out for the potential for an outside day to the downside.

2023-03-22 16:54:29

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That's some choppy stuff on CCJ.
Sideways price action for nearly a year now.
Probably best only getting involved at extremes until the range breaks.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pRvsFuRI.png

2023-03-20 16:57:28

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I'm scared to ask.
Please proceed. 👍🏼

2023-03-20 12:49:22

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Thank you. 🙏
Zapped! ⚡

2023-03-17 15:03:30

$ETHBTC update
We've been watching this chart for some time and speculating what the macro conditions would be that would lead to $ETHBTC to break to the downside, and for $BTC to outperform $ETH.
As it turns out, there was a financial crisis simmering in the background.
As Jim Bianco so eloquently puts it,
"The banking system is either in one of two states.
It's either blowing up or about to blow up."
#plebchain
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/m/M28rHK2r.png