SpyMasterTrades / is on Nostr

S&P 500 (SPY) Analysis and Market Insights 📈 📉
Not financial advice.

Last Notes

2024-05-09 22:14:56

Bitcoin's #cryptocurrency market dominance has likely peaked.
While anything can happen, and Bitcoin's market dominance can certainly continue to rise, my charting suggests that there's a high probability that other cryptocurrencies will soon begin to take market share away from #Bitcoin.
One cryptocurrency that I am watching particularly closely is #Kaspa. Kaspa ( #KAS ) is a decentralized #PoW protocol that solves the #blockchain trilemma.
#KAS is the only asset that I have found with a price time series that turns the price time series of Bitcoin into a decay function when the former is plotted as a ratio to the latter on the highest timeframe. This provides mathematical evidence that KAS is out-competing Bitcoin as a store of value. As such, Kaspa is essentially just a more efficient Bitcoin.
Kaspa's competitive advantage over Bitcoin is occurring as Bitcoin itself is out-competing gold as a more efficient store of value.
In the coming years, it's likely that the price of gold will rise against fiat currency, the price of Bitcoin will rise against the price of gold, and the price of Kaspa will rise against the price of Bitcoin.
As always, this is not meant to be financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
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2024-01-10 19:04:22

Banks are now gaming the Federal Reserve's bank term funding program. This borrowing in turn increases the new fiat currency creation.
This is yet another example of how the #Fed throws a lifeline to Wall Street banks at the expense of Main Street paying for higher inflation.
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Link to WSJ article: https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/the-fed-launched-a-bank-rescue-program-last-year-now-banks-are-gaming-it-43e9cee3
#Banks / #Insolvent / #BankingCrisis / #BankRuns / #Bitcoin / #BTC

2024-01-07 22:58:27

Numerous countries' ledgers are overwhelmed by debt. These countries usurp the wealth of their citizens through increased fiat currency creation to sustain these highly indebted levels. Their centralized ledgers are controlled by widespread corruption, with those who benefit the most tightly controlling the nation's money supply.
A publicly auditable and fully decentralized ledger is the only solution. #Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/HWvw.jpg
#BTC / Fiat / #Nostr / #Plebs

2023-12-30 03:45:40

Jamie Dimon doesn't want mass adoption of Bitcoin because Bitcoin takes control of money out of the hands of the bankers.
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#Bitcoin / #BTC / #Nostr / #BTCUSD / #Satoshi

2023-12-26 17:26:42

Although the #Fed has ostensibly been tightening monetary conditions due to inflation, this year actually experienced a significant increase in the monetary base.
As of the time of writing, 2023 has seen the 6th largest increase in percentage terms and the 4th largest increase in nominal terms of any year since the Great #Recession.
This is, in large part, why risk assets have rallied strongly this year. https://m.primal.net/HVQl.png

2023-12-21 03:25:55

There will come a time when people work their entire lives to try to accumulate 1,000,000 Sats.

2023-12-14 20:43:54

If you had held GBTC since its inception in 2015 instead of Bitcoin, you would have lost approximately 63% of the upside gains that #Bitcoin had during that period. This is in large part because of the high expense ratio that Grayscale charges #GBTC investors (2% per year).
This is why we shouldn't get too excited about Bitcoin spot ETFs -- if the expense ratios are high, investing in Bitcoin will mostly enrich the financial institutions offering the ETF. This is more true for Bitcoin than for stock market or bond ETFs because Bitcoin does not pay a dividend that could offset the expense ratio.
While the SEC may approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, it could also impose heavy regulatory compliance measures that increase administrative costs and drive up expense ratios. This in turn could diminish the effect of investing in a Bitcoin spot ETF over the long term.https://m.primal.net/HTrx.png

2023-12-11 21:14:52

I've studied Bitcoin's price action for years and it is my strong belief that the most plausible course for its future price action is some variation of the hyperbolic growth model.
The extreme parabolic move will begin when hyperinflation sets in for fiat currency and central banks begin to adopt a Bitcoin standard.
https://m.primal.net/HTYv.mp4

2023-12-10 03:58:53

When I posted on Twitter that I would be winding down my use of the platform to focus on developing content on #Nostr my tweet was met with the most hostility I've ever seen from my followers. Very rarely have I ever been faced with denouncement from the people who I thought supported me the most.
I am perplexed by how quick some people are to defend a centrally controlled platform. Perhaps my post was perceived as an affront to Elon Musk, which isn't the case. It was merely based on my realization that centralization of social media is the problem. No human is immune from bias, and thus content moderation, when placed in the hands of any individual, is always susceptible to bias and corruptibility. Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Since centralized social media are controlled by centralized governments, content moderation indirectly falls into the hands of politically motivated governments.
The original goal of my tweet was not to criticize Twitter -- I have gained so much knowledge and valuable real-world life experiences through Twitter and the people I met on there. Rather it was to enlighten my followers about the next step in the evolution of social media: Nostr, a decentralized social media protocol that possesses a unique ability to weather the vicissitudes of ever-changing political winds and to persist as a perpetual non-arbiter of truth.
To whomever on here who reads this, and who likewise understands the limitless potential of building a decentralization basis for social media -- alongside the decentralized monetary basis that Bitcoin is creating -- cheers to you for being the facilitators of innovation and evolution!
We need not worry about the resentment of centralized social media.
History will be on our side.

2023-12-09 22:17:06

✅ It's official now. After more than 15 years on #Twitter, I'm finally leaving...
Thank you @npub1sg6…f63m for championing this protocol and supporting the devs. At first, I didn't quite understand #Nostr, but now that I do, I realize the watershed change that it will cause in the years ahead.
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2023-12-04 13:40:34

Here's a challenge for you: Figure out how to measure your investment portfolio's long-term performance using #Bitcoin as the unit of value measurement rather than fiat currency.

2023-12-04 00:02:45

Here's a seasonality chart for December and my market analysis for 2024 and beyond:
The S&P 500 has rallied throughout most of the year, and that trend is likely to generally continue into the close of the year. However, the yield curve is deeply inverted and the VIX futures term structure is in a deep contango. These indicate that we're at the end of a business cycle.
In early 2024, the Fed will likely pivot. Once reverse repos (#RRPs) reach zero, the Fed will no longer be able to continue balance sheet roll-offs at the current pace. Futures charts are already showing early signs of pricing in Fed cuts. Indeed, the U.S. monetary base is already reaching the highest levels since the Fed began tightening.
Stagflation, which is already occurring in some countries, will likely begin in the U.S. in 2024. Commodity prices, including gold, will break out as soon as central banks resume monetary easing. The slow deflation and disinflation that we've seen throughout 2023 have merely formed the flag portion of a bull flag pattern for commodities on the higher timeframe. Eventually, higher commodity prices will push up #PPI and the underreported #CPI.
Bitcoin -- which is a digital commodity -- will likely rally along with other commodities. Bitcoin's #S2F and market cap will surpass that of gold in the coming years, as it continues its trajectory of becoming the new risk-free asset and the unit of account. By late 2024 and 2025, altcoins will begin to outperform Bitcoin as they typically do at that stage of the halving cycle.
Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. are beginning to break out. In prior business cycles, the Fed has usually begun cutting rates before jobless claims break out. This time around, the Fed has hiked us right into a breakout. Given the lagging effect of monetary policy, the Fed has positioned us well for higher unemployment rates in 2024 and beyond.
Severe stagflation is likely coming. During this period, geopolitical conflict becomes more likely. In turn, increasing geopolitical conflict can worsen stagflation as countries share less of their scarce resources by imposing export restrictions, and as countries allocate a higher amount of their GDP into destroying the means of production of other countries, making all countries worse off.
Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
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