dilutionproof
Dilution-proof

https://linktr.ee/dilutionproof

Bitcoin analyst & writer

Public Key

npub1tlnmatnpznq4djxysleje5247kumu9hw7k3frqs6qh7e0yaf3kksvltsg5

NIP-57 Address

itsdoor67@walletofsatoshi.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs9lea74es3fs2kerzg0uev692ltwd7zmh0tg53sgdqtlvhjw5cmtgh7quvy

Author Public Key

npub1tlnmatnpznq4djxysleje5247kumu9hw7k3frqs6qh7e0yaf3kksvltsg5

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Last Notes

2024-03-08 11:55:02

Bitcoin price is nearing the upper 90% ($75.1k) & 95% ($84.5k) confidence bands of the AVIV Ratio, signaling that the average market participant is quite a bit in profit
Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a cooldown period if price makes another leg up in the high $70-80k's
More on the Active-Value-to-Investor-Value (AVIV) confidence bands 📖: https://dilutionproof.medium.com/reviewing-cointime-economics-d153020d18a3 https://image.nostr.build/d861cbe8bce7d133bdce77d3dfa24337dfc65a2b6e47e8811569c9e699478c93.jpg https://image.nostr.build/e3c7f951d258d6f8934a2235a4a0226ff54f8932f735c2f35121d7f300ac51f5.jpg https://image.nostr.build/91971c18766af06afa890d43208b1fabcc37d22f5fe8d8d8b7d431301425de29.png

2024-01-03 06:37:10

Happy 15th birthday, Bitcoin

2024-01-02 21:56:58

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FOR SOME REASON I READ "MATT ODELL ON ASICS" AND IMAGINED THIS. https://image.nostr.build/a31787b9c2714cb17403e506fcf6a9c2c3e8abd6891cfe11c011042c57d004ce.jpg

2023-11-12 09:57:43

New article: Reviewing Cointime Economics 📜
It provides a summary of David Puell & James Check’s innovative Cointime Economics report, as well as some new data-visualizations that utilize confidence intervals to identify abnormal price levels 📈
Link: https://dilutionproof.medium.com/reviewing-cointime-economics-d153020d18a3 https://image.nostr.build/d11226ab5eb05b2ca2ab678eeb65083f46c70b3556a011e72010896e7010d4ba.png https://image.nostr.build/9574a7918b3b3a955d6989760391d33724259f70c4b0863212747e1a8ed00bc5.png https://image.nostr.build/d7c28f39c281284160f7a91570dcdc5deed7e7e5d1d652613c7aadd28965c1e7.png https://image.nostr.build/85792e9e363991e5e3acf052cfbc5c6b389abf83ece072d7851a0737d3720f9f.png

2023-09-06 20:51:27

I keep seeing people talk about Bitcoin’s “fee market” 🤦‍♂️
Guys… the fees are the monetary value that are being offered 💰, like in any market
It is the blockspace that is being bid on 🧾
Hence; it should be called Bitcoin’s “blockspace market” 🤝

2023-07-30 06:47:31

Anyone elsw notice how little talk there is of Bitcoin mining as an attack vector (e.g., by state actors or large private companies) compared to for instance 2017-2018? 👀
This is the type of progression that you don't see if you just stare at price charts. Zoom out 🧑‍🚀

2023-07-24 20:10:52

How it started: Elon buys Twitter, promises to turn it into a free speech platform and eliminate the spam
How it is going: Elon kills all alternative apps, requires everyone to KYC & pay to see a bit less adds and find reach in preparation to turning it into a full WeChat clone
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/4338fece4dd1f76699cffac514eb842d475d55f95be6975340f7b79b103990ea.gif

2023-06-18 08:15:16

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In Amethyst (Android client) there's a bitcoin symbol underneath the screen when writing a new note that opens the invoice option

2023-06-18 08:14:00

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I think this is probably because @npub17nd…950x was so quick to pay the invoice

2023-06-18 07:01:41

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Awesome, works like a charm!

2023-06-18 06:59:00

I think I just set up the ability to receive zaps and lightning invoices via Nostr (albeit via a custodial service, at least for now to test it out). Here's a 1 sat invoice to test it out; perhaps someone can verify if this works?
lnbc10n1pjga2e0pp5dm9tdg6qljn6a230amlep6pcframucu4qgxxrs2p6vsgj8dc6lqshp5lyzgfgcafyxht6u65nynjjzwv69hsexdau7rwdecrg7gyfc6yu9qcqzzsxqyz5vqsp5ncl3744jzq2lshwl6tmqgqd42pz073fsr69qcexvn5mq9q6s085q9qyyssq35zp0gly03ncg0jna0gswdkxlzg0xdsv2usau6u35wqdzen7v46p7ejkktprrzxgdldsw7h7ee5mmyyhdcah8myula6g76khwuj5mkcpd20ef0

2023-05-06 05:08:06

When hyperinflation hits and the population is rushing towards #bitcoin to protect their buying power, governments and central banks will close the exits
Ask yourself: how can I prepare for this?
PS: If you're living in a first-world country and feel like this is literally and figuratively foreign to you, reading 'The Mandibles' might help you envision what such a situation could look like. h/t @npub1qny…95gx
https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/argentinas-central-bank-bans-fintech-from-bitcoin/

2023-04-14 04:17:10

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I am apparently out of the loop, as I have no idea what this is about. The screenshotted thread is quite vague IMO, so to play the devils advocate; why should this be taken seriously?

2023-04-08 04:00:50

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The Note-orious L-Y-N

2023-04-06 14:24:26

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A lists function would be awesome as well. Particularly when implemented as easily clickable or swipeable alternative timelines that also remember timeline position 🙏

2023-04-05 15:47:25

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Why, the Elon let the dogs out stuff or something else?

2023-03-24 05:38:28

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Wow indeed. N=3 though, or am I missing something?

2023-03-22 18:29:17

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Looks nice! Wondering what inputs and math were used for calculating the price zones though?

2023-03-10 20:28:02

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Toxic Bitcoin Massochism 😅

2023-03-10 20:26:04

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Is his right finger pulling the trigger? 🤔
That is one weird picture...

2023-03-10 19:47:41

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LOL at the self-harm argument... You massochist! 😂

2023-03-10 19:44:25

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Either from oldest to newest or from newest to oldest IMO. Would love to see it implemented! Not seeing new followers in your mentions like is the case at Twitter is fine, but if you could at least check if for instance some of your latest new followers are people you know and might like to follow back that would be great

2023-03-10 19:40:05

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Amen 🤜🤛
#[3] deserves a mention there as well, from the Android side 🤖

2023-03-10 19:38:34

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Nice bullish divergence you've got there 😏

2023-03-10 10:12:58

Posible doom loop(?):
Crypto leverage unwinding -> crypto contagion -> banking contagion -> regulatory clampdown
🥴

2023-03-07 18:37:05

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Feeder (Android) is pretty good. Also available on F-Droid

2023-03-04 05:28:41

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What happened, why is it broken?

2023-03-02 16:58:33

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You've probably tried this already but just in case; perhaps remove and reinstall the app to clear our any remaining data on your phone? 🤷

2023-03-02 12:55:23

I created a Linktree page to consolidate the URL's in my bio a bit in case anyone wants to find me or my work across different platforms ✅
https://linktr.ee/

2023-03-02 12:11:59

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Not working over here yet (0.21.2 via Aurora). Are you using a side loaded version?

2023-03-02 12:09:22

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Amen!

2023-03-02 12:07:18

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Your clock may be broken, mine says it's PM

2023-03-02 12:06:27

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Absolute madness, #[1] 🙌
Amethyst is literally getting better by the day
#[0]

2023-03-01 20:36:54

So far, the bitcoin price the same dance every halving cycle (~4 years) 💃🕺
After the block subsidy halves, price rises gradually and then suddenly during the first ~1-1,5 years, then cools down and bottoms below the realized price ~1 year later and consolidates above it during the remainder of the cycle 🔄
We are now at that latter part of the cycle 👀
Next halving is estimated to occur in just over a year (~April 23rd, 2024) 🗓️
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_78b3ed0d2d64bcec08149c5edb566a3b92205bf77153731c00b26c71c586fd2a.png

2023-02-28 11:29:27

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You mean PV right?

2023-02-23 14:49:38

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So many buzz words.. 😅

2023-02-22 07:06:02

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You can also just check what relays other people are using in the app and add some, although then you don't really know what you're adding

2023-02-22 07:03:53

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What probably helps is adding some good relays. Paid relays are good for that, but you can also check https://nostr.watch/relays/statistics (site will take a while to load as it is locally measuring and calculating stuff on the fly) and add a few with a nice combination of latency, uptime and some geographic distribution

2023-02-21 21:36:30

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I did it the other day by turning off the global and community feeds on all my relays. It worked (global feed is now free of Chinese porn and QR codes) but starting all over again was a nuisance😅
I also read that someone nuked their following list by signing into 2 different clients with the same account very briefly after each other

2023-02-21 21:25:05

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Just wait until you tweak around and somehow lose your whole following list and just see an empty feed 😅

2023-02-21 21:23:50

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In due time 😅

2023-02-21 16:20:59

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That is my usual order flow as well now. Still go to Twitter on a daily basis to follow certain things that aren't on Nostr (yet), but part of me has already moved over. I see some similarities with how everyone jumped to NVK's Mastodon instance a while ago, although I suspect that this wave of Nostr adoptions might be much more sticky
Feels like a beautiful digital Bitcoin citadel of sorts, although honestly also a bit of an echo chamber. Curious to what extent other communities will end up adopting Nostr, and how the UX (key & relay management etc) will be made more accessible down the line

2023-02-20 11:14:01

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Willy who? 😉

2023-02-20 11:13:11

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Some that come to mind (probably am missing some):
#[2]
#[3]
#[4]
#[5]
#[6]
#[7]
#[8]
#[9]
#[10]
#[11]

2023-02-19 17:57:26

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Ironic that the fork of the fork is being eaten by pancakes

2023-02-19 08:32:52

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Cool, thanks!

2023-02-19 08:15:37

I think I just nuked my following list... 😅
Tried to improve my Amethyst app performance by turning off the community and global feeds on all relays (not using the endless flood of Chinese porn & QR-codes) but ended up with an empty home feed and 0 followed accounts. Oops...
Does anyone know how to appropriately disable the global feed without nuking your followsing list?

2023-02-17 11:28:59

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Some information loads fast, but for some users the information can take up to a few (4, 5?) seconds to load. I assume that is due to differences in the quality of relays? That is why I thought maybe it helps to just locally cache the most-used information (username, avatar, perhaps the last few notes) related to the pubkeys that a user follows? Not sure if it is possible and what the implications are though (I'm not a dev)
The timeline comment is partially related. Sometimes my app opens and is stuck on the timeline position, after which force-closing it only appears to work, but then it reloads everything and forgets the timeline position. On some other occasions (forgot the exact trigger) the app also jumps to the latest notes for me. Not the end of the world, but a more stable experience with this would be beneficial.
Thanks again for everything! ✌️

2023-02-17 10:40:11

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Is there a way to decrease the time Amethyst needs to load data such as user names, avatars and timeline position? I'm thinking maybe something can be done locally via caching?
Either way; thanks for all your efforts, it is great to see the app improve so quickly each week!

2023-02-16 21:34:28

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Welcome, Caitlin!

2023-02-13 15:47:12

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Indeed. Interesting observation check, but why is this supposed to remain valid in the future? Still wrapping my head around it

2023-02-11 19:18:05

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I heard that Iris is pretty good. Haven't used it myself yet though

2023-02-09 22:53:12

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Thinking about it some more, I suspect that you're comparing the current support bounce of the lower 2SD bounce to the prior higher 2SD resistance bounces during the bubble tops, is that correct?
If so, I guess that you can indeed make an argument that they are statistically comparable (assuming a normal distribution; which may be a problematic assumption?)
Aside from the statistical interpretarion, I personally don't think those prior market tops compare well to current market dynamics (very volatile blowoff tops versus usually more low volatility bear market bottoming)

2023-02-09 14:53:30

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Regardless of the discussion of whether the model is broken or not, I don't see how the current bounce off the 2SD band is comparable to previous historical cases, since it never did so before?

2023-02-09 06:14:55

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Maybe they based those limits on IP addresses, and those users were running VPN's?

2023-02-08 20:30:48

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You're using Damus to utilize Nostr, so if I had to pick one that "you are on" I'd say it is Nostr

2023-02-08 03:34:15

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Wow... Out of curiousity; what is the source for thuis information?

2023-02-07 17:55:42

Either I just lost 50% of my followers here, or something funky is going on with the relay's I'm connected to
Trying to understand what might have happened here, does anyone happen to know?

2023-02-07 10:40:55

How do you identify a good relay? Is just looking at latency and rights at nostr.watch sufficient, or are there other things to assess?

2023-02-06 21:53:42

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So nice, that Marty posted it thrice 💪

2023-02-05 18:13:49

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Keep 'em coming chief 🫡

2023-02-05 08:51:44

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That, and an infinite number of QR codes 😅

2023-02-03 02:12:57

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What is nighttime like on the moon, dear spacecat?

2023-02-01 20:16:21

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Excellent work mate! 💪 Quick question; are you working on a functionality for Damus to remember the timeline position, so that you can chronologically read your unread notes and just continue where you were last time?

2023-02-01 18:31:30

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "dilutionproof"

2023-02-01 18:31:07

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "dilutionproof"

2023-02-01 18:22:15

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Nostr is getting better by the minute 🤙

2023-02-01 17:21:30

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "@dilutionproof"

2023-02-01 17:11:40

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The floodgates are open!

2023-02-01 17:09:36

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Man it seems like everyone is already here lol… gotta love some new frontiers!

2023-02-01 17:06:52

What’s up Nostr?! 🤙