timevalueofbtc
Nik Bhatia

thebitcoinlayer.com

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thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg

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Last Notes

2024-03-04 14:55:06

Satoshi broke economics with digital scarcity. No supply response destroys every model.

2023-12-13 17:49:01

In the spirit of doing right by our TBL readers, I went back to check on how I thought the year would play out from a rates perspective. I also wanted to see just how soon I thought cuts would be here (because I was clearly early to that call).
Here is what I wrote in January:
"Our big [2022] claim was “don’t assume that the Fed will pivot at the first sign of equity weakness”—this ended up being correct. Our next claim was that hikes would slow to a pause by the end of the year—this did not happen, but slowing inflation makes us confident we are merely early to the call."
Postmortem: The pause happened after July's hike, and yes we were quite early to the disinflation party. It's for you to judge if we were correct and just early, or wrong.
Next forecast:
"This year, the debate will center around rate cuts during a recession. For that, we’ll need to understand when the recession has actually arrived (it hasn’t yet, especially with a relatively strong fourth quarter of GDP), how serious it is, and how much the housing market physically requires lower rates to carry on. The Fed’s job, in its own eyes, is not to rush to pivot its policy rate lower, but rather to maintain a restrictive rate for as long as it can to assure inflation has come back down. The Fed’s battle then becomes whether to protect its reputation as a two-way institution or succumb to the critiques that it is simply a money-printing whale with no long-term ability to stop. Currently, the Fed has been in tightening mode coming up to a year, but with the vast majority of the past decade and a half in easing mode, the onus is on the Fed to prove it can remain restrictive. Just as many believe them as those who don’t, which should sustain the lively debate for months to come."
Postmortem: Without a doubt, I was wrong to suggest that a recession would arrive and that a debate around cuts would involve a recession. The US did not come close to a recession in 2023, but rate cut debates have begun with a few weeks to go in the year. I suggested that the debate on how restrictive they could be would remain lively for months to come, and I think this will mark the big difference between my 2023 and 2024 outlooks.
My 2024 outlook will unabashedly predict a cutting cycle (we've already suggested cuts by March in Europe and by June in the US). I really don't have any problem being 6-12 months early to a call, because my investment framework is cyclically driven, so I am simply attempting to find where we are instead of running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
My suggestion is to follow what we are doing at TBL, both the written and video/audio product, for intellectual honestly, macro analysis (with some predictions) without any trade ideas or commission-based or profit-based motivation, and the opinion of two dudes (Joe Consorti and I) who love and live and breathe and sleep markets.

2023-10-23 15:38:21

this year, going long Treasuries might have gotten a trader or two fired
next year, there will be asset managers fired for not locking in 5% Treasury yields during 2023
market shifts are much easier seen in hindsight

2023-09-27 22:10:35

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Thank you!

2023-09-25 19:54:04

BLOODBATH IN US TREASURIES CONTINUES
dollar squeeze as well, especially in Japan
somebody is getting liquidated, or perhaps this is the blowup of the basis trade that many have been warning about, including the BIS most recently: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309w.htm

2023-09-21 00:33:15

there rates go ↗️
and the Treasury deluge hasn’t even really quite started
ever seen the crowding out effect in action?
Q4 shaping up to be a wild one!

2023-09-12 15:45:28

midterm tonight…don’t show my students https://image.nostr.build/c77460b38c853076545cedf2ce23dc0ac68b9706804184c1581eb866907948cb.jpg

2023-09-03 14:11:28

good morning
count your blessings!

2023-08-21 12:52:26

I have the great honor and privilege to begin my 5th year as an adjunct professor @ USC Marshall tomorrow.
I’ll be teaching bitcoin this semester to grad students as it approaches its 15th birthday and 4th halving.
Blessed!

2023-06-15 14:01:15

Jobless claims are creeping up. Highest in almost two years. Lagged effects of tightening hitting labor market NOW.

2023-05-25 12:28:15

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We try to have one every weekly, although sometimes we publish before an audio version is ready

2023-05-18 23:08:20

This year’s Bilderberg topics, banking system top of mind 👀
A.I.
Banking system
China
Energy transition
Europe
Fiscal challenges
India
Industrial policy and trade
NATO
Russia
Transnational threats
Ukraine
U.S. leadership
covered by CNBC now 🤷🏽‍♂️👇🏽
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/bilderberg-openai-microsoft-google-join-ai-talks-at-secretive-meeting.html

2023-05-15 14:19:06

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No, new Treasury issuance isn’t new money itself, it’s new debt. Only the Fed and banks can create new money through QE or loans.

2023-05-15 13:57:48

While many obsess over the debt ceiling fight, markets ponder what an agreement will bring in terms of liquidity drain, as the Treasury refills its general account at the Fed. Money used to buy T-bills means money not hitting the system elsewhere (until govt spends it). We wait.

2023-04-26 18:36:54

I am very excited to announce “Layered Money Goes to DC”! In June, I’ll head to the Capitol to meet with members of Congress, give them copies of my book Layered Money, and represent bitcoin as an American ideal. Please consider throwing some sats toward supplying books! https://geyser.fund/project/layeredmoneygoestodc

2023-04-20 15:50:09

REGIME SHIFT
something we have been watching closely
the chart shows how strongly positive the correlation is now between 10-year Treasury yields and stocks
when yields head lower, it won't be supportive to stocks as it was last year https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_dcae2edd7406221d355e96d5e3a7028a34775f4aa8704f09f07b3dcf10b47345.jpeg

2023-04-19 13:52:57

Everywhere you look, it’s dedollarization. Headlines and narratives, of course. Because on the ground and within the banking system, it seems that all anybody wants is dollars. How realistic is dedollarization, though? Not very, especially when you look at the hard numbers. In today’s free post, we’ll explore how hopes of a euro-, yuan-, or gold-centric monetary system are intangible. We’ll also explain how bitcoin adoption is the only competitor with promising, albeit early, momentum.
Bitcoin’s adoption trend calls into question any momentum the euro, yuan, or gold might have in challenging the dollar. The dollar remains dominant and entrenched, but the internet’s currency is just beginning to strengthen its running legs. Let’s see before how long it enters a full sprint.
https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/dollar-challengers-euro-yuan-gold

2023-04-08 15:04:36

The reason I started a substack in the first place, September 2021, was that I was generally sick of relying on twitter to reach readers
Here’s our latest update, all weekly updates are free to everybody! https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/objects-in-the-mirror-are-closer

2023-03-31 07:14:15

Banks under fire for more than poor hedging and low-interest deposit rates. JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are both being sued by Epstein accusers.
Just published "Jamie Dimon to be interviewed under oath in Epstein sex trafficking case" for #[0] https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/jamie-dimon-to-be-interviewed-under

2023-03-24 12:29:44

Treasury curve in full bull steepen mode. This only occurs when front-end yields collapse. This only happens when rate cuts are priced in. This only happens in recession or financial crisis.
It’s here.

2023-03-21 14:10:07

Layered Money just crossed 49,000 total books sold. I would be lying if I said I wasn't really looking forward to 50k. It has been a long journey. Epic timing as I start to clear the deck for deep work on book #2. Beyond blessed. #bitcoin

2023-03-18 20:43:41

UBS / Credit Suisse rescue talks are going down to the wire. Doesn’t look like CS is able to open on Monday without a savior.
Wow, even though the slow demise has been apparent to us all for years, still crazy to think about this ship going under.
Next week gon’ be 🔥

2023-03-11 02:56:16

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You have a gift sir! We are are grateful for your ability to explain the future before most can see it.

2023-03-11 02:54:09

Bitcoin adoption happens one use case at a time. It seems that, unbelievably, many are learning about fractional reserve banking for the first time today.
Enter: bitcoin.

2023-03-11 02:42:57

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Thank you!

2023-03-08 23:00:13

To give you a sense of just how differently the front end and long end of the yield curve are behaving.
2s are 13 bps ABOVE their levels from Thursday 3/2, six days ago.
10s are 10 bps BELOW their 3/2 levels.
Expectations are firm for higher policy rates, followed by lower rates. 2s trade with a 5 handle, yet 10s struggle to stay above 4%. It shows the unwillingness of investors to part with their Treasuries despite the higher discount rates.
This is typical late cycle fixed income market behavior.

2023-03-08 00:09:27

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Should be out tomorrow!

2023-03-07 22:56:54

Just on here zapping myself from my Wallet of Satoshi to my ZBD lnurl #[0]
Lightning 🤝 Nostr

2023-03-07 21:53:15

I just interviewed #[0] for #[1] about Nostr.
Mind. Fully. Blown.
Nobody breaks down technological trends like Jeff. The future is built on this protocol. Do you agree and to what extent?

2023-03-01 19:33:10

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Switched it

2023-03-01 19:33:05

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Switched it

2023-03-01 14:27:44

High spot inflation in Europe should be a net positive for the euro as ECB must address price instability. Dollar will weaken which should ease financial conditions.
Separately, a close eye on ISM Manufacturing coming up this morning to gauge any contraction in the US economy.

2023-03-01 02:15:04

Thankful for all the zaps I’ve received since joining. Most popular amounts: 21 sats, 69 sats, and 1,000 sats. 😄

2023-02-27 20:57:21

Lightning Network is the captain now

2023-02-27 13:47:15

bitcoin is optimism for our species, and I’m just thankful to be a part of it