_Checkmatey_
_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️

Lead On-chain Analyst at glassnode.
Bitcoiner + Onchain Analyst. Creator of checkonchain.com
Education + Knowledge + Experience == Edge

Public Key

npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r

NIP-05 Address

_checkmatey_@nostr.directory

NIP-57 Address

crimsondeer3@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsqt6gwlarurc8v4aw9hh2vkfdedxfh9zngmza0tlw4e66wf3fzvjqctw6v9

Author Public Key

npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r

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Last Notes

2024-10-18 08:38:08

Paper #Bitcoin
Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up.
In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them.
My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/paper-bitcoin-01

2024-10-01 06:04:31

Devil's Advocate.
My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers.
In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/devils-advocate

2024-09-24 10:23:51

With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers.
I cover:
- What options are (calls/Puts)
- Options Buyers vs Sellers
- The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta)
- Example strategies
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/options-101-derivatives-masterclass

2024-09-17 21:11:30

Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin.
The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways.
From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/beating-the-house-odds

2024-09-13 07:33:42

#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums.
The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers.
Today I share two perspectives:
- Hard realities by Check the Analyst
- What Check the HODLer is doing with that information.
Enjoy folks!
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/demand-doldrums

2024-09-11 22:27:05

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I think you're exactly right about that. My read is that we're probably more undervalued than people think, since we tend to act off how we feel as much as what we see.
The counter point would be people may get frustrated earlier, and 'take what they can get', although I suspect Bitcoiners in particular have overcome a lot of this with experience and study.

2024-09-11 22:23:53

The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson.
Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data.
I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.
https://youtu.be/J8rEAoHDYOI

2024-09-10 06:47:09

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nailed it. This is exactly how I think about it, and I learned a lot running this study too.

2024-09-10 05:43:22

Inflationary Illusions.
My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones.
What if we never made a real ATH at all?
https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/p/inflationary-illusions

2024-09-05 08:12:57

Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘
Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.
https://m.primal.net/KfEd.jpg

2024-09-05 07:42:48

The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets

2024-09-02 03:32:59

Playing with Fire.
My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/bitcoin-playing-with-fire-onchain-analysis-market-update?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2024-08-30 22:26:49

Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now.
Is anyone building something like this?

2024-08-30 21:51:10

The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics.
It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium.
The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-sell-side-risk-ratio

2024-08-29 19:28:59

The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare.
This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout.
I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/rough-consensus-podcast-with-joe?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2024-08-28 12:47:11

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the halvening
down 50% since the merge.

2024-08-28 12:46:11

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congrats mate, what a great run. You and the team should be incredibly proud of WBD, it changed the Bitcoin world.
All the best with the new show, and you've given me a reason to return to London (and visit Bedford for a match).

2024-08-28 12:41:00

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good luck fellas, looking forward to a few beers at Cheat Code.

2024-08-28 12:26:23

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no, really. I say this as someone more familiar with onchain data than most people in the world.

2024-08-28 12:12:29

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steady on...

2024-08-28 05:20:59

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The data is guaranteed to be incorrect. More likely moved to a new internal wallet and that data provider has not kept up.

2024-08-28 05:18:00

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happy to, what's your handle? same as here?

2024-08-28 05:06:45

In case folks didn't know, there is a full suite of Bitcoin charts available over at charts.checkonchain.com
All free, onchain, ETFs, derivatives and comparisons with TradFi.
https://m.primal.net/KRCS.png

2024-08-28 04:57:01

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HODLers are selling millions of dollars worth of coin every day. They have done for several months.
This is why things move slower, the capital needs to be larger, and the higher it goes, the more bitcoiners step off the train (with a fraction of their holdings)

2024-08-28 04:52:45

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Learn the onchain basics.
Realised Cap
MVRV
SOPR
if you can master those, you will be 5x better at picking market opportunities and risks than the average bear.

2024-08-28 04:45:38

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One of the few exceptions, SanI is a serious and professional analyst.

2024-08-28 04:43:19

Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).
Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.
inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.
Don't whale watch kids.

2024-08-28 04:39:06

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data is almost certainly wrong.
pro tip, ignore all exchange wallet commentary. It is almost always noise.

2024-08-28 02:50:35

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chopsolidation, it's good for the soul (and the bull)

2024-08-27 12:02:32

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#asknostr

2024-08-27 11:26:03

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Things move slower up here at $1Trillion.

2024-08-27 11:17:38

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yes indeed. Love your handle too btw haha

2024-08-27 11:10:25

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will do from now on

2024-08-27 11:10:09

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thanks for the support!

2024-08-27 10:59:08

Since everyone is jumping over to Nostr, I wanted to share my latest analysis video from behind the paywalled with you all.
Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/1pykSsDYc38?si=I5Ct2NitMrS2xdVi

2024-08-27 10:18:22

My latest piece is out for checkonchain subscribers.
this one looks at the tremendous sellside that the Bitcoin market has absorbed over the last 6 months.
I also compare the conditions to 2019, which is the most similar period by far.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/its-2019again?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18

2024-05-26 06:51:30

#Bitcoin onchain analysis masterclass is live covering the onchain originals price models.
in particular, the Cointime Price, True Market Mean, and Vaulted Price stand out as key levels where investor sentiment tends to shift.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-onchain-originals-price?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18
https://m.primal.net/INYO.jpg

2024-05-24 22:55:40

The #Bitcoin ETFs saw around four weeks of outflows in April, worth around -$1.1B on net.
It took only 13-days for that to more than reverse, with over $1.6B worth of inflows, and eight +$100M inflow days in a row.
Feels like a second demand wave may be upon us.
Chart: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/tradfi/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1/tradfi_btc_etf_aum_1_light.html
https://image.nostr.build/4b61857568f5bcc10e1183fbde4580fdcc99ece8bc072e36e31e26dcc50b266c.jpg

2023-08-24 21:56:42

https://youtu.be/_9OLUnv7_1s?feature=shared

2023-08-24 19:40:44

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Yes, so the next layer down is categorising coinblocks stored. Can we make an adsumption that multisig CBS are deeper vaults? More likely to remain stored? Are there long and short term holder coinblocks?
The first section of chapter 8 alludes to this where we establish liveliness ratios for patoshi, mt gox, remBTC as extreme entities. Those heuristics are one of the many next levels down in this journey

2023-08-24 13:00:19

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We're live.
#nevent1q…0xlp

2023-08-24 12:59:03

Introducing Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysing the Bitcoin economy.
Video overview:
https://youtu.be/_9OLUnv7_1s
Primer blog post is available here:
http://insights.glassnode.com/introducing-cointime-economics/
The full PDF report is available here:
https://20368641.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/20368641/Cointime%20Economics%20%5BDIGITAL%20SINGLE%5D.pdf
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f4b6f47ce86efd4fa94c8c7b9d6869afdc6c4e211d8dd57f1b1b77e5b3ca9d53.jpg

2023-08-24 07:36:54

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I know, I just lack enough hands to juggle it all.

2023-08-24 07:10:37

In a few hours, we will be releasing a brand new Bitcoin analysis framework, which we call Cointime Economics.
Within, we relate the concept of 'time' to the dimension of 'supply', and establish a suite of greatly improved economic models for Bitcoin. This framework explains a great many concepts such as how many coins are likely lost, what is the real cost basis of the market, and how much does the halving actually matter.
Cointime Economics is a product of over 18months work alongside David Puell, and builds on the pioneering work of the late Tamas Blummer. I couldn't be more excited for it to go live.
It is by far the most abstract concept I have ever worked through, and I truly hope it inspires analysts and readers with new ideas about Bitcoin.
This meme is the TL:DR, and was literally the first thing I put to paper as it migrated from napkin to paper.
I hope you enjoy, and cannot wait to hear/ feedback. I will post links to the report as soon as we release.
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/5966346d8745e39c299adff5fc56fccbf9d9020aea3b07b9992d4b495314a879.jpg

2023-02-23 05:13:34

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Thank you!

2023-02-23 05:09:54

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Lol, what?

2023-02-23 04:53:51

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TLDR is that one can get outsized edge by understanding just a few metrics.

2023-02-23 04:53:01

https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/

2023-02-23 04:52:21

Fresh onchain fundamentals research is live, today we're focusing on the MVRV ratio for Bitcoin.
This is one of the oldest and most popular metrics, but is massively underutilised relative to its potential.
Strong recommend to learn how to read the MVRV, and assign probabilities to particular values.
https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/

2023-02-20 13:45:12

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Gday Seth!

2023-02-20 13:36:10

Total Bitcoin supply that has remained unspent for at least 1yr is at an ATH of 12. 913M BTC. For Coins at least 6months old, it id approaching a new ATH around 15M BTC.
Much of this will include coins held in large entities such as GBTC, Microstrategy, and Mt Gox.
The 2. 087M BTC aged between 6m and 12m however are mostly investor held coins, accumulated on the way down in H1 2022.
https://i.imgur.com/HYxkpKo.jpg

2023-02-20 13:29:01

The Bitcoin total number of UTXOs on the set hit an all time high time week, with over 137M UTXOs.
This was the fastest rate (117k/month) of UTXO set growth since DEC 2021 after the market ATH was put in.
https://i.imgur.com/kFdYouZ.jpg

2023-02-15 22:36:55

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You're right, im a fool, you should probably stop following me, everything I say is pure noise.

2023-02-15 22:35:20

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Sounds like you were sending via onchain not lightning. No fees on LN are unaffected by this.
Only opening and closing channels which are onchain transactions.

2023-02-15 19:46:18

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1. Is very constrained, please see our latest article.
2. We already have plenty of grifters. This is the reality of a free market. There are always grifters in money.
https://insights.glassnode.com/ordinal-theory-and-the-rise-of-inscriptions/

2023-02-15 19:44:53

Our latest report on Bitcoin Ordinal Theory and Inscriptions is live.
TL:DR
- Jpgs dominate 90% of inscriptions
- Chain data growth is unconcerning
- Inscriptions are fee sensitive
- Monetary tx remain primarily mined tx
- Inscriptions buy unused blockspace
https://insights.glassnode.com/ordinal-theory-and-the-rise-of-inscriptions/

2023-02-15 13:18:46

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It is already easy to run a node, even post inscriptions.

2023-02-15 10:30:14

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Yes agree. Luckily, the loud minority are not consensus, and even they understand there is no successful chainsplit of bitcoin.
I suspect inscriptions have increased, not decreased the probability of ossification now.

2023-02-15 07:55:11

#Bitcoin    Inscriptions push two end zone results into the foreground:
1. Blocks are full from a data perspective --> this was always the expected result.
2. Fee pressure builds making on-chain more expensive --> also the long term expected result.
So what is the problem?
Constraints breed innovation.
When Ethereum fees rose, they built Layer 2s to solve it.
If blocks are full of data you don't like, make high demand monetary applications to crowd out the jpegs.
We're entering a golden era of #Bitcoin    innovation.
Embrace it.

2023-02-13 20:55:32

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I ran an analysis closing in on what period matched it closest. Tbh, anything between 120 and 140 was remarkably close, 135 just has the closest correlation over the largest portion of Bitcoin history.

2023-02-13 20:53:25

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The ape brain sees sufficient unrealized red or green in the portfolio, and it initiates a reaction. It is all about market psychology. Essentially, the reason this works today (a reaction of humans) is why it works on the future (same ape brain, different day)
If you refer to the long future where Bitcoin is no longer 'trader's, well...then we dont have a usd price and thus no profit multiple!

2023-02-13 14:37:57

Bitcoiners still like to take profit.
The MVRV ratio is much more than a macro oscillator. It is a representation of the average profit multiple held by unspent coins.
In bullish rallies, a value above 1. 2 indicates an average of 20% profit amongst short term holders and usually is enough incentive to sell a little.
We just found resistance at this level as a few bottom stackers took money off the table. A retrace to around $20k would be a retest of their cost basis and historically, a good indicator for a dip to stack.
Pro tip: you can simulate STH MVRV by dividing price by a 135day EMA.
https://i.imgur.com/0DvpKtQ.jpg

2023-02-13 14:24:51

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So no zaps yet for poor Aussies without strike?

2023-02-13 14:19:19

Old mate Checkmate is planning on sharing regular Bitcoin onchain analysis from my personal analysis on Nostr only.
None of the hocus pocus bullshit, the real deal Bitcoin behavioral analysis.
Stay tuned, stay humble, stack sats.

2023-02-13 07:02:45

Really feels like safety in sats is the sane position right now.
Fiat instruments rugging via mathematically assured debasement on one side.
Regulators rugging questionable tokens via a combination of overreach and hard reality on the other.
#Bitcoin DGAF