_Checkmatey_
_Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️

Lead On-chain Analyst at glassnode.
Bitcoiner + Onchain Analyst. Creator of checkonchain.com
Education + Knowledge + Experience == Edge

Public Key

npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r

NIP-05 Address

_checkmatey_@nostr.directory

NIP-57 Address

crimsondeer3@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsqt6gwlarurc8v4aw9hh2vkfdedxfh9zngmza0tlw4e66wf3fzvjqctw6v9

Author Public Key

npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r

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Last Notes

2024-09-05 07:42:48

The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live.
I cover three topics in a 1hr video:
1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin
2) How I think about $BTC Miners
3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/how-to-identify-blood-in-the-streets

2024-08-28 04:43:19

Folks, one pro tip I recommend for everyone, is to ignore all commentary related to exchange balances that isn't coming from a serious professional analyst (even then, question it...).
Few data providers do a good job tracking the wallets, few analysts understand the data, and what is available is almost exclusively noise and click bait. The nuances are beyond ridiculous, and the problem is endlessly dynamic.
inflows, outflows, balances and supply squeezes. It has no relevance to price or the market, and should be ignored in the vast majority of circumstances.
Don't whale watch kids.

2024-08-28 02:50:35

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chopsolidation, it's good for the soul (and the bull)

2024-08-27 10:59:08

Since everyone is jumping over to Nostr, I wanted to share my latest analysis video from behind the paywalled with you all.
Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/1pykSsDYc38?si=I5Ct2NitMrS2xdVi

2024-05-26 06:51:30

#Bitcoin onchain analysis masterclass is live covering the onchain originals price models.
in particular, the Cointime Price, True Market Mean, and Vaulted Price stand out as key levels where investor sentiment tends to shift.
https://open.substack.com/pub/checkonchain/p/masterclass-onchain-originals-price?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2swa18
https://m.primal.net/INYO.jpg

2023-08-24 21:56:42

https://youtu.be/_9OLUnv7_1s?feature=shared

2023-08-24 19:40:44

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Yes, so the next layer down is categorising coinblocks stored. Can we make an adsumption that multisig CBS are deeper vaults? More likely to remain stored? Are there long and short term holder coinblocks?
The first section of chapter 8 alludes to this where we establish liveliness ratios for patoshi, mt gox, remBTC as extreme entities. Those heuristics are one of the many next levels down in this journey

2023-08-24 13:00:19

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We're live.
#nevent1q…0xlp

2023-08-24 12:59:03

Introducing Cointime Economics, a new framework for analysing the Bitcoin economy.
Video overview:
https://youtu.be/_9OLUnv7_1s
Primer blog post is available here:
http://insights.glassnode.com/introducing-cointime-economics/
The full PDF report is available here:
https://20368641.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/20368641/Cointime%20Economics%20%5BDIGITAL%20SINGLE%5D.pdf
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f4b6f47ce86efd4fa94c8c7b9d6869afdc6c4e211d8dd57f1b1b77e5b3ca9d53.jpg

2023-08-24 07:36:54

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I know, I just lack enough hands to juggle it all.

2023-08-24 07:10:37

In a few hours, we will be releasing a brand new Bitcoin analysis framework, which we call Cointime Economics.
Within, we relate the concept of 'time' to the dimension of 'supply', and establish a suite of greatly improved economic models for Bitcoin. This framework explains a great many concepts such as how many coins are likely lost, what is the real cost basis of the market, and how much does the halving actually matter.
Cointime Economics is a product of over 18months work alongside David Puell, and builds on the pioneering work of the late Tamas Blummer. I couldn't be more excited for it to go live.
It is by far the most abstract concept I have ever worked through, and I truly hope it inspires analysts and readers with new ideas about Bitcoin.
This meme is the TL:DR, and was literally the first thing I put to paper as it migrated from napkin to paper.
I hope you enjoy, and cannot wait to hear/ feedback. I will post links to the report as soon as we release.
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/5966346d8745e39c299adff5fc56fccbf9d9020aea3b07b9992d4b495314a879.jpg

2023-02-23 05:13:34

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Thank you!

2023-02-23 05:09:54

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Lol, what?

2023-02-23 04:53:51

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TLDR is that one can get outsized edge by understanding just a few metrics.

2023-02-23 04:53:01

https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/

2023-02-23 04:52:21

Fresh onchain fundamentals research is live, today we're focusing on the MVRV ratio for Bitcoin.
This is one of the oldest and most popular metrics, but is massively underutilised relative to its potential.
Strong recommend to learn how to read the MVRV, and assign probabilities to particular values.
https://insights.glassnode.com/mastering-the-mvrv-ratio/

2023-02-20 13:45:12

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Gday Seth!

2023-02-20 13:36:10

Total Bitcoin supply that has remained unspent for at least 1yr is at an ATH of 12. 913M BTC. For Coins at least 6months old, it id approaching a new ATH around 15M BTC.
Much of this will include coins held in large entities such as GBTC, Microstrategy, and Mt Gox.
The 2. 087M BTC aged between 6m and 12m however are mostly investor held coins, accumulated on the way down in H1 2022.
https://i.imgur.com/HYxkpKo.jpg

2023-02-15 22:36:55

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You're right, im a fool, you should probably stop following me, everything I say is pure noise.

2023-02-15 22:35:20

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Sounds like you were sending via onchain not lightning. No fees on LN are unaffected by this.
Only opening and closing channels which are onchain transactions.

2023-02-15 19:46:18

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1. Is very constrained, please see our latest article.
2. We already have plenty of grifters. This is the reality of a free market. There are always grifters in money.
https://insights.glassnode.com/ordinal-theory-and-the-rise-of-inscriptions/

2023-02-15 19:44:53

Our latest report on Bitcoin Ordinal Theory and Inscriptions is live.
TL:DR
- Jpgs dominate 90% of inscriptions
- Chain data growth is unconcerning
- Inscriptions are fee sensitive
- Monetary tx remain primarily mined tx
- Inscriptions buy unused blockspace
https://insights.glassnode.com/ordinal-theory-and-the-rise-of-inscriptions/

2023-02-15 13:18:46

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It is already easy to run a node, even post inscriptions.

2023-02-15 10:30:14

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Yes agree. Luckily, the loud minority are not consensus, and even they understand there is no successful chainsplit of bitcoin.
I suspect inscriptions have increased, not decreased the probability of ossification now.

2023-02-15 07:55:11

#Bitcoin    Inscriptions push two end zone results into the foreground:
1. Blocks are full from a data perspective --> this was always the expected result.
2. Fee pressure builds making on-chain more expensive --> also the long term expected result.
So what is the problem?
Constraints breed innovation.
When Ethereum fees rose, they built Layer 2s to solve it.
If blocks are full of data you don't like, make high demand monetary applications to crowd out the jpegs.
We're entering a golden era of #Bitcoin    innovation.
Embrace it.

2023-02-13 20:55:32

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I ran an analysis closing in on what period matched it closest. Tbh, anything between 120 and 140 was remarkably close, 135 just has the closest correlation over the largest portion of Bitcoin history.

2023-02-13 20:53:25

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The ape brain sees sufficient unrealized red or green in the portfolio, and it initiates a reaction. It is all about market psychology. Essentially, the reason this works today (a reaction of humans) is why it works on the future (same ape brain, different day)
If you refer to the long future where Bitcoin is no longer 'trader's, well...then we dont have a usd price and thus no profit multiple!

2023-02-13 14:37:57

Bitcoiners still like to take profit.
The MVRV ratio is much more than a macro oscillator. It is a representation of the average profit multiple held by unspent coins.
In bullish rallies, a value above 1. 2 indicates an average of 20% profit amongst short term holders and usually is enough incentive to sell a little.
We just found resistance at this level as a few bottom stackers took money off the table. A retrace to around $20k would be a retest of their cost basis and historically, a good indicator for a dip to stack.
Pro tip: you can simulate STH MVRV by dividing price by a 135day EMA.
https://i.imgur.com/0DvpKtQ.jpg

2023-02-13 14:24:51

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So no zaps yet for poor Aussies without strike?

2023-02-13 14:19:19

Old mate Checkmate is planning on sharing regular Bitcoin onchain analysis from my personal analysis on Nostr only.
None of the hocus pocus bullshit, the real deal Bitcoin behavioral analysis.
Stay tuned, stay humble, stack sats.

2023-02-13 07:02:45

Really feels like safety in sats is the sane position right now.
Fiat instruments rugging via mathematically assured debasement on one side.
Regulators rugging questionable tokens via a combination of overreach and hard reality on the other.
#Bitcoin DGAF