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Just trying to work this thing out

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Last Notes

2024-10-01 08:51:59

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sorry, I should have been more precise: By "pensioners" I meant "older people look to preserve their wealth in the later part of their life so they dont run out of money before they die". That's a pretty huge pot of value that's currently monetising other assets.
I don't think today's old people will save the large part of their wealth in bitcoin, they'll chose other assets. BTC feels too volatile, unknown and unsafe to them. As bitcoin will be a larger and larger part of successive generations' financial life, you'd expect bitcoin saving amongst old people to trend upwards over time though.
It may be that the first gen to save in BTC as old people will have to be "bitcoin native" generation (i.e. born into a world where bitcoin is normal).

2024-10-01 08:07:10

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Bitcoin will only approach full monetisation. when the vast majority of pensioners are willing to hold their significant savings in it. Probably gen-Z's pensioners at the earliest.
Conceivably millennial pensioners, but I think it's unlikely.

2024-10-01 08:07:10

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2024-03-29 13:24:25

I'm actually a bit surprised that the bitcoin etfs managed to move the price so little considering how a big a slice of the total supply they've been able to get so quickly. I suppose there must be a huge lake of BTC owned by OG whales that is many 1,000 of % in profit, and is consistently being 'sold down' (and bought up by the ETFs), keeping the price rises fairly tame. If that's true, I wonder how big that lake is and how long it will take for it to flow into ETFs and corporate treasuries. Once thats done ETFs will surely find it a lot harder to source BTC and will have to bid up the price?

2024-03-20 20:18:41

Back status = we're

2024-03-12 19:45:51

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(there are obviously other differences)

2024-03-12 17:32:58

The only difference between a brainwashed cultist and a sensible rational human being is whether they're right or not

2024-03-12 09:03:21

I find it hard to believe that there won't be a major end-of-bull-run correction. I don't necessarily disagree that 'institutional money' is likely to dampen the sell-off because their money is "more sticky" than retail, but I just don't think most humans can tolerate multi-X investment gain, so this stickyness can only go so far. The fear of a correction and the mental pressure to sell is just too big, especially for people who are new and haven't built hodler conviction levels yet.
My completely educated and uninformed gut instinct is that a 50% correction is the best we can hope for (and would be a MASSIVE narrative if it happened).

2024-03-12 08:14:46

I wince every time I see someone say "We're still so early!". I try really hard to not let superstition control me, but damn guys, your are trying *so hard* to jinx this bull run 😅.

2024-03-11 10:58:44

"SMART" goals have killed countless great ideas. #ChangeMyMind
To explain: The modern business obsession with 'proving in advance' that an idea will be a success has led to great ideas getting abandoned (or not even considered) because they don't have convenient metric that can be used to 'prove' their potential for succes. People are afraid of being tested by the market and won't try something unless they "know" it will work.

2024-03-11 08:04:17

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The european morning pump. Smells like freshly baked croissants!

2024-03-10 18:50:10

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Most people want the benefits of society without paying the cost of personal responsibility

2024-03-10 13:08:04

One of my main emotional takeaways from the '21 bullrun was to not trust breathless, hyperbolic price targets, so it's hard to feel comfortable with a lot of the current price projections for this run.
I get that '13 and '17 took people by surprise, but 250k+ just doesn't feel plausible right now tbh.
I hope you look back on this tweet and laugh though.

2024-03-09 14:20:51

Is it bad that I look forward to hyperbitcoinisation in a large part because it might mean the end of mega bull markets and the associated dejectrd feeling of not having enough bitcoin 😂. Honestly, I love the vibes when bitcoin goes on a tear, but the constant ennui over not-having-bought-as-much-as-you-could-have really gets to you.

2024-03-09 11:44:44

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😂

2024-03-08 10:08:22

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Don't overestimate the impact that "the look" has on "the feel"! Also I reckon there's probably a 'less feels better' effect going on, where the simplicity/focus adds to the experience. Lastly, it looks and feels more like a current gen social media product from a big tech company - this is obviously a matter of taste and is more important to some people than others.

2024-03-08 07:57:08

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To get the next 10x, it feels like it would need to be something to do with the physical manipulation of atoms. Either on a grand scale (either fast or large) or in new ways (new material science, incredibly useful material properties). Perhaps AI is the stepping stone to achieving this?

2024-03-07 20:10:15

It's pretty galling that the UK, with it's supposedly "crypto friendly" prime minister, is seemingly one of the few major western countries where you can't buy a bitcoin ETF. Mainly because the UK actually has a pretty great pleb finance vehicle in the ISA (you don't pay income tax or CGT on investments held in an ISA).
The upside is that it kinda forces you to self custody, and disuades you from selling (else you'll get rinsed for CGT), so in many ways it's actually kind of a good hodl incentive!

2024-03-07 12:44:44

BTC pinged ATH, so it's time to spin up an alt and shitpos- uh I mean 'contribute to the discourse' 👀