343PG
343PG

https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com

You may not be interested in Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is interested in you.

Public Key

npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz

NIP-05 Address

BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com

NIP-57 Address

bronzeape1@primal.net

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs0heekmve55qfkkftln52l9mlcuml29k3djexhqs5uaahtrpamp4gtzu08q

Author Public Key

npub1l0nndkenfgqndvjhl8g47thl3eh75tdzm9jdwppfemmwkxrmkr2s7cwvaz

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-09-28 17:34:57

- reply

MSTR is simply a company seeking to grow their bitcoin in their treasury. They represent an investment in equity - nothing special, except they are early. In future I hope lots of other companies will present a similar proposition - but the opportunity cost of these choices will always be holding the btc. Companies will definitely have to demonstrate a positive risk adjusted proposition for individuals to invest.

2024-09-21 13:11:03

- reply

Amazing work on this Susie.
It may feel like banging your head against a brick wall sometimes, but I think complaints like this do make a difference over time. The journalist in question will have likely had to come back to it and do further work internally to justify and defend their content, alongside others. Whilst the complaint may not be upheld, they may be more careful in their stance next time around.

2024-09-18 09:42:02

- reply

It was ever thus. All weapons throughout history are just forms of technology.

2024-09-16 11:58:16

- reply

Come at the king, you best not miss

2024-09-06 21:01:44

- reply

As he said himself, actions >> words

2024-09-06 20:16:10

- reply

You look like a good looking lad (through the fire and all) - I’m sure you’ll figure it out..

2024-09-06 20:11:40

- reply

It was good while it lasted

2024-08-20 11:59:21

- reply

Fine, but add a small surcharge. Covers the cost of your time & the expense of converting it into sats!

2024-08-17 19:04:50

@npub1qny…95gx - per your latest note.
#note1d0l…r86s

2024-08-14 21:22:03

One of my favourite quotes is that 99% of success in life is just showing up.
It’s only just occurred to me that Bitcoin - of course - fits this rule.
Every ten minutes or so, Bitcoin shows up.

2024-07-20 11:51:11

- reply

Hey Louis can’t see the note you’re replying to but guessing around Bitcoin annuities? Personally I think it’s a slight red herring - sometimes centralised parties are inevitable and it’s probably the case they need to be for pooling life expectancy. Insurers have played this role pretty well for both annuities and life insurance for years- I don’t think it’s the main issue out there.

2024-07-18 19:20:21

- reply

Thanks - That’s really interesting! It does bring to mind the question of what businesses exist for in the first place

2024-07-18 19:19:13

- reply

Thanks - those are some helpful thoughts for sure

2024-07-18 09:40:56

Giving away sats is hard! Will
change to minimum 400 sats to anyone who reposts original below or would like to comment on the article.
#note193w…5ffz

2024-07-16 21:56:47

- reply

Not quite the ideal feedback to an article, but I’d zap if wallet was set up!

2024-07-16 18:39:44

**Going to try something new for this new article. I have a budget of 10,000 sats to allocate across anyone who reads and posts a comment / feedback, and just for anyone who reposts (not "likes"..) on Nostr! 100 sats minimum zap, and will also redistribute any zaps received in full also **
This is an article reviewing Simon Sinek's book, The Infinite Game. You can also view it at https://bitcoincollective.co/bitcoin-and-the-infinite-game/
Simon Sinek asks in his book “The Infinite Game” why more companies don’t operate with an infinite rather than a finite mindset. One main reason he misses, of course, is the money. The good news is there’s a new infinite game in town.
In “The Infinite Game”, Simon Sinek argues that great leaders set up their organisations to succeed beyond their own lifetimes. By recognising and positioning their business with an infinite rather than a finite mindset, they can engender greater trust throughout their employees and also build more resilience into their business. Their companies can also remain true to themselves and their mission, whatever that may be.
Sinek outlines that unfortunately we have entered an age of general subservience from leaders to their shareholders, and a slavery to the balance sheet and short term, “finite”, accounting and strategy. This generally leads to a decline of loyalty and engagement amongst customers and an increase in insecurity and anxiety amongst employees.
There’s plenty to agree with here in general terms. With that said, Sinek fails to identify one of the largest causes of the issues he identifies, which is the money. The book lays the blame on a watershed article from 1970 in which Milton Friedman laid out that “there is one and only one social responsibility of business, to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game.” This is noted in the book as a turning point from the original ideas of Adam Smith, for whom the consumer was king, but I couldn’t help but wonder if anything else happened in the early 70s, such as Nixon cancelling the convertibility of dollars into gold in 1971. (see also – https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/).
Sinek bemoans the short term nature of companies since that point, but doesn’t consider how the nature of money has shaped this; surely a much more omnipresent and powerful factor than the writings of Milton Friedman. For the average bitcoiner this may be relatively self evident, but let’s consider the motives of the leadership under a system in which the underlying money cannot hold it’s value and in which credit is artificially priced. Incentives abound – one to laden the company with debt (which all else will likely diminish in real terms over time versus company assets and earnings), acquire other businesses and grow as big as possible in the process. Other options such as share buybacks also reflect short term incentives. Shareholders are going to place their own high short term demands on companies in a world where it is hard to outrun monetary debasement.
What of new businesses? When a new private entity is formed, the business plan is written, agreement on its viability is formed, strategy is set, tactics are agreed and then the first question posed by external stakeholders or posed to the majority shareholders is ‘what is your exit strategy’. Small successful businesses are expected to have a 3-5 year plan, private equity is usually a 3-5 year plan, and the successful larger companies with a longer trajectory also tend to swallow up the smaller successful companies (easier access to debt). With such incentives, it’s no wonder that we tend to see certain outcomes. There are obvious agency problems the larger a company gets, and they are more likely to fail to adhere to an infinite game principle. Smaller companies are forever at risk of getting swallowed up by larger ones.
So how does Bitcoin come into this? In my view, in two ways:
1. Bitcoin is an infinite game within itself
This is one of the subtle but crucial differences that splits Bitcoin sceptics and bitcoiners, and then dominates their onward arguments. If interpreted as a finite game, Bitcoin is for gambling, for speculation, it will have an end, and will be defined by winners and losers. Just the other day, this article framed it as such with the following line –
“Whether Bitcoin is rising or falling, or who is buying or not buying it, nothing alters a basic fact: that Bitcoin is a classic zero-sum game. Large numbers of people can make vast paper fortunes by bidding up the price, but they cannot all realise those fortunes, because if everyone sells out the price collapses to zero. In that situation, those who were quick to sell would become rich at the expense of those who were slow to sell.”
Herein lies the problem for this criticism. As far as I can possibly ascertain right now, Bitcoin doesn’t end. Plenty might treat it as a finite game (and dismiss it as a ponzi, or try and trade it), but that treatment is a one way journey, and once you see Bitcoin as an infinite game there is little going back.
Going back to the book, let’s consider the “just cause” that Sinek says all businesses should have. According to Sinek, a just cause defines “the world we hope to live in and will commit to help build. It is the just cause that we are working to advance that gives our work and lives meaning. We know a cause is just when we commit to it with the confidence that others will carry on our legacy.” There are criteria listed too – a just cause must be “inclusive, service orientated, resilient, and idealistic.” Bitcoin surely fulfils these. On the ideology point, Michael Saylor articulated this well when dismissing altcoins in comparison to Bitcoin on the What Is Money podcast –
“If you really want a crypto to be successful over 100 years, the technology is only a part of it, right? It’s the ideology paired with the technology. And you’re gonna have to have an ideology that is so pure and so straightforward that people will fight to the death to defend the ideology. And that’s why I’m probably not gonna sacrifice my life for the 13th iteration on smart contracts. It’s not that important. On the other hand, if you tell me that we’re about to suck all of the economic energy out of the civilization and plunge ourselves into the Dark Ages, then I think I’ll fight for it. That’s worth fighting for.”
Michael Saylor – What is Money Show Episode 8
2. Bitcoin on balance sheets
Any business embracing Bitcoin on its balance sheet will automatically be closer to playing an infinite game itself, and let’s consider why. For starters, any shareholders will likely be holding equity with one opportunity cost being a holding of an equivalent amount of Bitcoin instead. This in itself will give them a low time preference mindset, which should transfer onto the company. Secondly, the act of having Bitcoin on the balance sheet provides a very simple yet iron clad discipline upon the company. One goal in broad terms is to grow that Bitcoin balance sheet over time, and they can only achieve that by being profitable. If they are not, they will find that Bitcoin balance dwindling over time instead. Though conventional businesses do broadly have the same need to be profitable, the Bitcoin example is quite different from a business with requirements to service debt, which may carry much shorter term deadlines for payment. In conclusion, companies looking to grow their Bitcoin holdings on a balance sheet are far more likely to buy into an infinite game mindset.
There are examples of infinite minded leaders out there, of course. Elon Musk is perhaps the most relevant in the present day, given Tesla and SpaceX have lofty long term ideals far removed from satisfying shareholders. Steve Jobs is another obvious one, and Sinek quotes an anecdote about sharing a cab with a senior Apple executive and telling him that the latest Microsoft Zune product (mp3 player at the time) was so much better than the iPod touch. The executive smiled politely and was unfazed – tellingly, Apple weren’t worried about competitors in the short term due to their infinite mindset in making great & innovative products. Fast forward to today and there is evidence that Apple aren’t playing the infinite game that they used to. Take for example the recent news that Apple is plugging in Open AI into the iPhone. This doesn’t feel like the same ethos of a company who famously told us to “Think different” under Steve Jobs.
In conclusion, there’s plenty of decent ideas in the text and he articulates the issues well. However, due to failing to identify probably the main cause of the problem, Sinek doesn’t quite nail the call to arms for leaders to embrace an infinite game. Add in Bitcoin though, and the time preference of companies and their shareholders would vastly decrease and an infinite game mindset would come naturally.
One final thought – Sinek opens by looking back to the Vietnam war. Despite their vastly superior army and losing far fewer men, the US still lost the war. The reason being – it was an example of a finite mindset (thinking there would be a simple beginning and end) coming up against an infinite game and an enemy with an infinite mindset. The USA had comparatively infinite resources, infinite money, but a finite purpose & ideology when it came to the war. By contrast the Vietnamese, as one of their foreign ministry specialists was quoted as saying, were fighting for their independence and had already been doing so for thousands of years.
As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it might be said that companies who adopt a Bitcoin strategy are playing an infinite game with a non-debt based money of finite supply, and the competition are playing a finite game with an infinite supply of debt-based money.
This is a guest blog by Bitcoin Actuary / BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com. Thanks go to @btconlyscott for early comments/suggestions on this article.

2024-07-14 22:20:33

- reply

What’s behind it, in your view? Strikes me here the simplest answer of an attacker acting alone may be most likely, but realistically surely it’s too early to call in any direction

2024-07-13 18:05:14

- reply

😂 I’d wager the bureaucratic cost of dealing with the extra “donations” outweighs the value of them..

2024-07-13 17:55:37

- reply

Let me guess, are plebs sending small amounts of sats to those addresses now?!

2024-07-12 12:27:52

Thanks to Jordan and the Bitcoin collective for publishing the following article on their brand new website. A
review of Simon Sinek’s book “The Infinite Game”.
https://bitcoincollective.co/bitcoin-and-the-infinite-game/
#bitcoin #books #bookreview #infinitegame
Please post any thoughts and repost this if you can for a wider audience to see it!

2024-07-09 16:06:24

- reply

Ha ha, yes..!

2024-07-08 16:32:59

- reply

Excellent post. I think within this lies the answer to the argument that continued Bitcoin adoption could somehow bring the global economy crashing down. The bottom line is there are already trillions worth of other assets being used as stores of value, especially in real estate.

2024-07-07 14:17:41

Saw something along these lines a while back and have never managed to find it again, so here’s my memory of it!
#bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/JKDZ.jpg

2024-07-06 13:54:53

- reply

My view - both of these guys have some interesting macro stuff to say, Luke Gromen especially, but incentives matter. Both of them essentially get paid for not being a Bitcoin maxi, like all investment professionals.
Why? There’s not much of a career in it - and never will be - as the strategy never changes, until everyone starts to switch from saving in Bitcoin to investing again in equities that can return a positive outcome vs Bitcoin.
Until that point, Saylor got it right - there’s no such thing as diversification when the solution you’re after is the answer to an engineering problem.

2024-07-04 07:02:33

- reply

Clickbait, pure and simple

2024-06-22 11:24:34

It’s that time of year again.. anyone on nostr going to Glastonbury?
#asknostr #glasto #glastonbury
#note1mk5…3g0t

2024-06-14 11:49:32

Seeing more likely scammer type accounts / activity across Nostr. This is an indicator of success of some sorts.
Will be fascinating to see how they fare over time. My hope is that the inherent costs of setting them up / paying for meaningful interaction with real users is higher than the friction for users / relays etc to simply ignore them. Something that Twitter could have enacted but failed (deliberately?) to do so.

2024-06-14 11:11:31

- reply

The chart I’d love to see is the combination of these two items - ie the dollar value of Bitcoin left on exchanges.
By way of example, this is presumably higher now than in Feb due to the run up in dollar price.

2024-06-14 11:04:19

The FT had 15 articles linked to the Bitcoin tag throughout the whole of May. In June.. none.
la la la la la la la la la la la la clearly nothing to see here!
#ft #bitcoin

2024-06-03 14:34:53

- reply

“No. Thanks a lot for watching, and I’ll see you in the next video”

2024-05-31 07:34:26

- reply

GBTC complicates a little as there was $20bn+ to begin with? Probably needs excluding (and assume GBTC outflows have flown in to others) if we want to see only new money but impressive none the less

2024-05-29 18:40:15

- reply

My comment to them - Looking at who you follow in terms of who they then follow - even if only starting following 5 accounts it’s a brutally simple way to discover further accounts.
The fact that likes don’t further broadcast does make a big difference from Twitter though and makes the whole like button pretty surplus to requirements.

2024-05-28 16:53:22

- reply

Hey Ben - read this the other day and the article is great - amazing job with this.
Couple of questions - what if anything has changed since you wrote it - given that it’s dated end 2021? And also - what do you think they will do with this huge amount of cash they have and have just added to?

2024-05-27 15:23:41

- reply

I think Saylor has a point in there, and I also think his intentions are sound, but he’s not necessarily framing the argument in the best possible way.
All else equal, lawyers lead to more laws and developers lead to more code. That doesn’t mean code will be automatically incorporated into hard or soft forks though.
He’s right to crave stability, and stability doesn’t mean outright ossification. He’s also right to ask whether segwit and taproot benefitted absolutely everyone in the ecosystem - they almost certainly didn’t.
However, a better way of terming it all would be for him to publicly ask whether resourcing for core devs needs to sit proportionate to money being made on a Bitcoin ETF, as I think started this whole item off. Into the long term it almost certainly doesn’t? What if Blackrock pledged the same with theirs?

2024-05-26 14:46:40

- reply

Yeah agree - if you know local routes you then notice it’s far from reliable - guessing lots of nimbys lean on the algorithm to protect certain routes.
The simple listing of businesses on a reliable map just seems an absolute open goal right now. But would need a Wikipedia level army of contributors over time and a way of policing reliability in a decentralised way. Perhaps zaps / some form of skin in the game could be the method.

2024-05-26 10:24:37

Both Google and Apple Maps are dreadful. Google especially far worse than it used to be for simply finding local businesses on a certain street for area, for example. Clearly it’s been commercialised to the utmost degree - I assume businesses need to pay for reach - and now essentially useless for a clear picture of what’s on a street.
Has anyone ever had a go at open sourcing map provision like this? Surely a powerful concept if the incentives are aligned right to prevent abuse and draw in collaboration from users.
#asknostr
#maps

2024-05-25 11:56:24

- reply

Be the change you want to see! Let’s make nostr the intolerant minority, not Twitter.
https://primal.net/e/note10jm9y3uy4vyhpa9wlvkqm5m436jap945tcq4xfph70gwmau4t7hstrljjp

2024-05-24 10:41:29

- reply

Notwithstanding the fact retail can’t access them as yet; agree ridiculous, do you know if these can then be held in tax wrappers like pensions or ISAs? As that would still show a bit of a breakthrough

2024-05-24 10:07:16

- reply

“Bitcoin is a classic zero sum game”
That assumes there is an end, but Bitcoin is an infinite game. It doesn’t end.

2024-05-22 19:39:34

- reply

Apparently the UK tax code is 10 million words or 21,000 pages. You just can’t make this stuff up. It’s almost like they are laughing at us

2024-05-20 15:04:09

- reply

Keep going Cory. The race is real

2024-05-17 20:30:29

- reply

I’d recommend requesting a download off X of all the information they hold on your account. Quite interesting and might annoy you enough to spend even less time on it!

2024-05-15 19:14:13

I have now deleted my Twitter account, and my medium account. All articles have been transferred to Nostr. I'm also done submitting with Bitcoin magazine for fairly obvious reasons.
Trying to channel my inner @npub1s05…eyhe here- vote for and build the world you want to see in your actions.
Nostr has incredible potential. Within the very definition of that potential there is no free lunch. Expect to pay for relays to host content, for clients to deliver it to you, and zap for posts or content you want to see. It should incentivise others to host, deliver or create content. I need to do more of this, but as a start any zaps to my articles on Nostr have been set up to send half to the relays that host them.
Elon Musk continues to head down the wrong path in many of his actions to monetise Twitter. It is fairly clear that much of what @npub1qny…95gx predicted is coming true. By layering in identity verification, he is seeking to extract ever more value from users information.
Nostr needs to benefit from what Taleb referred to as the intolerant minority - in this case those who vote with their feet and refuse to engage with the walled gardens of Facebook and X, etc - and instead bring their time, money and attention to Nostr.
#nostr
#deletetwitter

2024-05-14 22:59:08

- reply

Meh. Alan Hansen had it right years ago - spurs always let you down. I’ve no love for city anyway - money laden.
Would have been better to have ignored the gooners all night, then we could have gone all don draper in the lift.. “I don’t think about you at all”

2024-05-14 11:21:50

- reply

Absolutely agree - worrying about the exact content on here is futile
https://primal.net/e/note1d0lwjwpg4uka49hn2qusxgz9nlvaprks33d3r2hxecsptge686dqs5r86s

2024-05-13 21:13:27

- reply

I think the main reason why not is that these places don’t exist in a vacuum. One dynamic is that they become wealthier as a whole and it results in some local impacts such as house price inflation. But it’s not the same as money printing.

2024-05-13 14:15:33

- reply

So wait. He posts this and GME halts trading…?! You might be onto something..

2024-05-13 12:51:09

Article - Why Glastonbury festival should embrace Bitcoin -
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1715355931927
#glasto #glastonbury #bitcoin

2024-05-12 09:44:25

Another article transfer to NOSTR (nearly done now) - the time Tyler Parks and I waded through the entirety of the FT’s Bitcoin Sceptic podcast episode, and argued it point by point
https://habla.news/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzp7l8xmdnxjspx6e907w3tuh0lrn0agk69kty6uzznnhkavv8hvx4qqqqqve3c4

2024-05-10 19:22:44

Next article transfer -
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1715016705142
Looking at the concepts outlined by @npub1ath…4k6d and comparing how Bitcoin’s exchange rate should continue to move vs global currencies, given their attributes.

2024-05-10 17:17:13

Another article transfer - a look at MSTR’s debt tranches in the depths of the bear market. Updated in brief to 2024!
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1715103942581
#mstr #microstrategy

2024-05-10 16:24:32

Another article transfer to Nostr - on trying to predict the Bitcoin price
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1713560525284

2024-05-10 16:22:07

- reply

https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1713560525284

2024-05-09 06:17:58

- reply

Agree - It’s an illogical position from the off to take as it means you couldn’t ever live on a bitcoin standard. For if you did, there are always going to be times where you end up spending Bitcoin to cover living costs.

2024-05-08 17:56:23

- reply

Stock to flow I reckon. Compared to nearly every commodity, property makes a good investment in those terms alone.

2024-05-05 12:41:04

- reply

Best just stop moaning about the fiat volatility then 😉😂

2024-05-05 12:03:30

Another article transfer to Nostr - the time in 2021 when Elon Musk waded in on Bitcoin’s block size.
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1714899613528

2024-05-04 13:59:07

- reply

Hey Joe perhaps you need to take a look at this and create an informal running stable dollar balance for day to day expenses, whilst pocketing the funding rate over time (see article)
Personally I’ve tried it on BitMEX and whilst the short funding is real I can never quite work out if it’s working as intended 😅 perhaps @npub1etd…amdg or @npub1sfh…ymqt can confirm if this should still be practical on a platform like that for retail plebs.
https://www.axiombtc.capital/orange

2024-05-04 10:11:14

Latest article transfer - on toxic maximalism.
#keiser #bitcoin #toxicmaximalism
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1694271422139
To be honest with retrospect the whole maximalist term was invented by Vitalik Buterin and is not particularly useful - you either think Bitcoin’s digital scarcity is meaningful or you don’t, and you either own Bitcoin or you don’t.

2024-05-02 22:06:36

- reply

Totally. Saylor is beyond measured in his rhetoric on the existing framework, as you’d expect any CEO of a listed company to be.

2024-04-27 17:03:46

Next article transfer to nostr - how we might start to value MicroStrategy in Bitcoin.
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1714155123022
#microstrategy #mstr #bitcoin
I don’t expect zaps - but if anyone does, all my articles are set up to send half of any zaps to the relays hosting them.

2024-04-26 18:52:17

Stupid question, but how do Nostr specific urls work? For example from Habla news -
#naddr1qv…jrs0
Is there a way to post them that shows more than simply the text?
#asknostr

2024-04-26 07:53:56

- reply

Yep - agree generally and that Bitcoin encourages a lower time preference vs fiat money. The part for me that I hadn’t recognised was that all else equal, saving is higher time preference than investment. I don’t think multi sig makes too much difference in this context.

2024-04-25 18:45:17

This was an excellent panel - with @npub1s5y…6q7z @npub1klk…x3vt @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1sfh…ymqt - well worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA4jzHIPj7A
A couple of separate but interlinked points made in this. First - is Bitcoin a cheatcode? No, strictly speaking - it's just money as it should be with a fair set of rules, but might just feel like that if you're early in its adoption phase.
Secondly - the concept that holding Bitcoin in its purest form is actually high time preference, not low. Reason being - you are holding it to be immediately accessible, rather than investing it into projects requiring capital with an expectation of greater returns than you put in over time.
My view is the reason this feels unintuitive is linked to (1) - it's an observation best framed in a wholly bitcoin denominated world. The hurdle rate (in bitcoin terms) is incredibly high during bitcoin's adoption phase. Imagine a simple project like building a house with materials and then selling it, and trying to make money in bitcoin terms. Which is why only bitcoin related projects stand much of a chance as an opportunity cost for simple holding bitcoin. Bitcoin only VC's have a tough (but noble..) pursuit.

2024-04-21 17:33:43

Transfer/deletion of content from Medium continues. An open letter to Mark Carney -
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1713695976708
naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzp7l8xmdnxjspx6e907w3tuh0lrn0agk69kty6uzznnhkavv8hvx4qqxnzde3xvmrjdfexumrwvpc6hm7zy

2024-04-20 11:31:24

A second transfer to Habla news - why you shouldn't ever both trying to buy the Bitcoin dip. True then, true now..!
https://habla.news/u/BitcoinActuary@BitcoinNostr.com/1713609535105
#naddr1qv…h4nl

2024-04-19 22:06:08

For a few years now I've published articles in Bitcoin Magazine. Let's be charitable and call some of my content learning in public! For a long time they did retain a pleb culture with their submissions, which does deserve some credit. Now though, it feels like time to move on. @npub1s33…252p has spoken at length on this recently, and he rarely misses.
I'm also going to ditch Medium entirely and post previous content to Nostr and habla.news, sharing half of any zaps with relays.
Here is a link to my first transfer - a look at the book "How to Be Idle" and how it embodies many of the same principles as Bitcoin.
References to @npub1s05…eyhe @npub1s5y…6q7z #dominicfrisby
#naddr1qv…ye2d

2024-04-16 12:39:21

- reply

All of your post makes kind of sense as to waiting for something to play out - logically miners are forced sellers of bitcoin in having to take care of their costs, and the competition / difficult adjustment takes care of the general dynamics around that.
What makes far less sense is once you take into account that we all know the halving is happening. And the following ones, etc. Yet not many of us have fully wrapped our heads around it, or more of us would be on a full Bitcoin standard (volatility permitting!)

2024-04-12 08:52:36

- reply

Here’s one reason why you might (short perpetual futures, at least)
https://www.axiombtc.capital/orange

2024-04-11 08:54:14

One difference between Twitter and Nostr is that likes from people who follow don’t appear on your feed, and given this is a more common action than a complete repost, it makes it harder to chance across further content and accounts to follow.
I’m guessing this is because of the nature of how nostr operates with relays? #asknostr
In a way though, what I’d value more than seeing likes, is seeing other notes my follows have zapped, adapting the old Taleb maxim to be something like “don’t tell me what you like, show me what you like that much as to zap it with sats”. Might be missing something but is this possible on some apps? (Using primal)

2024-04-07 19:40:32

- reply

Nicely done. Spurs would be a particularly powerful example of a club for taking on a form of a Bitcoin standard. For starters, they take in more revenue than they spend, in stark contrast to most clubs..

2024-03-29 22:19:10

- reply

Ha ha, maybe. But the third charms a time theory may be at work here. I only really first heard about Bitcoin in 2017, and loads of similar people are the same no doubt. Those people have already seen 17k, 67k ATHs.. and may be about to see more

2024-03-29 21:14:21

- reply

Definitely think the idea of grownostr is not needed. It stands by itself - they will come when they will come.

2024-03-29 20:49:57

- reply

Thanks for sharing. If I were to write a short Bitcoin intro article to a “telegraph” type audience skeptical about Bitcoin, I doubt I’d do much better. After a few years suffering the normal stuff in the UK, it’s good to see.

2024-03-26 07:41:14

- reply

Translation - we need to inflate away the debt..

2024-03-23 11:36:07

When it’s finished, 21 ways might just turn out to be greatest Bitcoin book of all, based on what’s written of it so far.
Albeit it looks like a very low time preference project so might have to wait for a while!
#note1rmr…e9vr

2024-03-17 12:21:53

- reply

Yes agree. A hypothetical, but if you’re offered $ then I suppose you are either getting a fair market value - at that time - or you’re not. And what’s the average MSTR holder immediately going to do with that money…?! It’s going straight back into Bitcoin, though there may be practical or tax reasons to make it tricky to do that.
In summary there are definitely risks there. Saylor also makes me slightly nervous with his endless series of debt issuances, even if being done on hugely favourable terms.

2024-03-17 11:06:40

- reply

You’re absolutely right - there are counterparty risks to owning MSTR shares. Yet the issue for the powers that be is that if they do this, is they have just handed the biggest advertisement for holding actual Bitcoin in existence. Plus, there is no they - in order for it to happen by any form of consensus in government, things would have to be pretty dire. If and when MSTR reaches the S&P 500 - ownership dilutes further and this confiscation risk falls, imo

2024-03-17 10:51:35

- reply

Guessing the third Friday in March for rebalancing has passed now? They will likely delay as long as they can..!

2024-03-08 23:09:45

This is a grubby price comment made with regret, but we’re far nearer $100k Bitcoin than most people think.
Why?
It’s about 44% higher than present price. The last bill run saw 44% higher than prior ATH broken through in days after ATH breakthrough rather than months (and this equated to a price of approx 27/28k back then)

2024-03-08 12:53:34

- reply

It’s about Bitcoin owned per share, really. They have been careful to only issue more equity when the resulting Bitcoin purchased increases this measure.
In terms of convertible debt you could take the binary position, as I think you are doing, and assume all is converted. But even still then you need to look at Bitcoin owned per share before and after.

2024-03-05 18:49:28

- reply

Interesting that they have pivoted back to convertible debt. They must think it’s a decent time to head back that way. I guess the option to convert to equity will keep any interest cost pretty low.

2024-03-05 15:28:08

Still largely ignoring!
#note1t6c…vrtu

2024-03-04 22:13:41

Interesting to see MSTR go back to raising money via convertible notes again.
The devil will be in the detail, but the current high share price presumably allows them to sell them to the market at a pretty high conversion price. This utility for the holder then still serves to reduce MSTR’s interest burden compared to issuing a regular bond.
#mstr #microstrategy

2024-02-27 14:40:31

Pray for the shorts 🙏 still 20% of them out there.
#MSTR

2024-02-17 11:02:37

- reply

lol, see the market cap of "Fibswap Dex"..

2024-02-06 23:24:33

I don't normally repost memes, but..
#note1e9e…2frn

2024-02-05 09:38:34

- reply

The numbers need updating though..!

2024-02-02 14:05:24

- reply

Yes good point - screenshot here https://image.nostr.build/73df74856071be7fbc427a19113f1b8f2151fe88554933041f6cf717f622f6e8.jpg

2024-02-02 11:15:49

Received a very credible looking phishing email from #swan #swanbitcoin re the launch of a Swan token.
With news of their foray into Bitcoin mining, this would only be a few steps further and it’s better than most of these types of emails - some will fall for this I imagine.
I’m not a Swan customer but more fool me I guess for at some point giving up my email alone - here in lies the general KYC honeypot problem.
Anyone else had this email? #asknostr

2024-01-29 19:52:21

- reply

If this happened tomorrow, then custodians would surely play a major role in various forms - be those retail banks, Bitcoin exchanges, cash app, Revolut, Apple, Visa etc etc.
This may not sound the ideal scenario, but remember with no lender of last resort for Bitcoin, there will be a lot of scrutiny on all of them in how they custody it, and huge levels of competition in all areas.

2024-01-28 13:23:27

- reply

Picking 3 specialist spinners, plus Root, remarkable indeed! Baz ball finds a way.

2024-01-15 21:57:58

- reply

We’re such a “crypto hub” here in the UK aren’t we 🙄. No Bitcoin ETF access in sight in the UK and if you want to buy KYC Bitcoin you have to answer a humiliating questionnaire. Depressing in the extreme.

2024-01-09 20:30:37

@npub14hn…a32x great article. The world of Bitcoin is a soap opera in itself. If that’s fun and entertaining, fine, but if not, tune out for a bit.
https://www.teachingbtc.com/depression

2024-01-09 09:24:53

- reply

Thanks for sharing those - some fascinating articles. Much of what Saylor envisaged in the early 2000s has since become commonplace, albeit obviously Google and co have dominated the provision of them.
Yet he had the visions. Ditto with the mobile wave book - it’s not necessarily the greatest read now but had I read it 10 years ago and followed the advice, I would have owned Google, Amazon, Apple etc - all the big networks, through tremendous growth. And it seems that a chunk of Saylors wealth is from investing in those shares.
I think the average internet troll discounts how remarkable it is to run a company as long as he has - and keep it successful. Confirmation bias is real - no one recalls the thousands of failed companies.

2024-01-07 21:13:03

- reply

Not rewatched the wire for a while, but you’re probably right on some parts of it. Both are fantastic in my view.
Here’s the thing though. Better Call Saul owes its very existence at least in part from the Wire.

2024-01-07 14:11:31

- reply

“When it can be used to buy and sell the things we want, as seamlessly as fiat currency, that’ll be the game changer.”
I’d be interested to know if this is him being disingenuous, or just slight ignorance. But a mix of Gresham’s law and policy (eg CGT tax in much of the world) gets in the way of using Bitcoin to buy and sell the things we want, as you are all too aware!

2024-01-06 13:47:05

- reply

It’s still some distance from Jemima Kelly changing her tune, but it’s a start

2023-12-13 18:08:57

- reply

Best of luck Joe. All your content is a credit to you.

2023-12-04 10:44:27

- reply

“They may start moving from dollars to crypto, as an antidote to inflation”
So tell me Brian, which crypto might that be?
SAY THE WORD BRIAN