Jan Wüstenfeld

Bitcoin, Economist, Analyst

Public Key

npub1dnj4nwcreuca9s2cn2ujf28lne5tnsyssvyfmkxn7s3u99e9mncqtewx58

NIP-57 Address

bitcoinishope@getalby.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxee2ehvpu7vwjc9vf4wfy4rleu69eczggxzyamrflgg7zjujaeuqpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgy75quf

Publishing to

nos.lol

relay.nostr.band

relay.noswhere.com

Author Public Key

npub1dnj4nwcreuca9s2cn2ujf28lne5tnsyssvyfmkxn7s3u99e9mncqtewx58

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Last Notes

2024-03-08 11:50:32

The volatility of #Bitcoin's price at this stage of the monetization process is a feature not a bug. Embrace it.
https://image.nostr.build/85b854273643bcff43eecaec2084bf3e66c64b0e437a3ed31c722441a2458207.jpg#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1022x1054&blurhash=%7C7S%24ln%25g%3F%5EH%3F%25Mo%7DMw%25gtRo%7Et7Mxofx%5DM%7BaeWBaytlM_V%40%25gRPRPx%5DRPV%3FVsf6tRWBM%7Bt7ozofjt%3Fvt7IAM%7BozkBWBoLofaKWBkWWBWBofoLt7of%25Mt7WBRjV%40oLayfkjaofWBj%40oMozofRjWBj%5BRPV%40tRt7ayj%5BWBWBa%7D&x=fc1928209267f8d20d6a93dac56aa6a4573cc22bc6ae788dd38a072acf692eed

2023-08-19 15:59:04

In the realm of Bitcoins's glare,
Attacks on Bitcoin, they did dare.
Yet through the storm, it did declare,
"Honey badger don't care."
Forks and threats, they did ensue,
But Bitcoin's strength, it did renew.
With every challenge it did bear,
"Honey badger don't care."
Decentralized, it stood tall,
Defying doubts, it won't fall.
Through every trial, it would declare,
"Honey badger don't care."
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/0a99e93d4046b8eb82a8fd96a1e62dbefb2e2d8a2d7384c5d1e7d89453df8269.jpg

2023-08-19 15:57:56

It's quite astonishing. The increase in the S&P 500 relative to the US dollar money supply M3 has been minimal since 1960.
One could make the case that a significant portion of stock performance can be attributed to the debasement of fiat currencies, a broken monetary system.
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f4de08f0d1524b1158dee6b297f4181a459436d326a2f71bc18786e705cb3f3e.jpg

2023-06-14 22:05:42

Imagine being a top economist or central banker watching the USD money supply increase by 40 % over two years during Covid and the only explanations for inflation you come up with is neg. supply shocks, war, excess savings, climate change etc.
Welcome to the Fiat clown world! 🤡
https://nostr.build/i/a9611cede0ff20451063e8596b146eae5186a23ae890e03f9f3143540f0dc152.jpg

2023-06-13 12:11:35

The US dollar supply (M3) has experienced an average annual growth rate of 7.2% since 1960.
#Bitcoin's supply is currently growing at a rate of less than 2% per year.
With the upcoming halving event around April 2024, the issuance rate will be cut in half.
You do the math!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/91d91428-5ba0-465d-94b3-c0409d3489d8.png

2023-06-13 09:22:34

Zap lives matter. ✊
Free zaps! ⚡

2023-06-07 13:46:21

It is hard to keep track of all the fiat currencies in free fall and countries with high inflation. So much value is being destroyed. So many live savings are inflated away. So many economic businesses are destroyed. So many lives are destroyed.
Just over the last day, the Zimbabwe Dollar lost almost 25% in value against the US Dollar and more than 80% this year. The Turkish Lira is down 5.65% today and more than 19% this year.
#Bitcoin is needed more than ever!
Bitcoin is hope! 🧡 🧡 🧡
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/8a5e457b-0051-4d97-a01f-6668b3db59ea.jpg

2023-06-05 15:39:03

Both Bitcoin exchange in- and outflows have been in a macro downward trend since the bull run in 2017, considering the 365-day moving average.
It picked up during the last bull run but was not as strong as in 2017.
Overall an unusual trend as before 2017 the trend has been upward.
Reasons may be:
-decline in activity due to bear market (but does not explain overall trend)
-diminishing use of bitcoin for speculative purposes due to:
a) increasing availability of other trading pairs, such as stablecoins and
b) a change in the composition of bitcoin users, with fewer users using bitcoin for speculative purposes and short-term trading.
Both overall, leading to fewer deposits to and withdrawals from exchanges.
Data source: CryptoQuant
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/9ca8baf1-bb5a-4780-8284-5432e1e5d751.png

2023-05-29 10:37:39

Turkish lira drops to all-time low after Erdogan's reelection.
The outlook of the central bank further cutting rates despite inflation rates above 40% does not bode well with markets.
He has reaffirmed in April rates will fall as long as he is in power.
#Bitcoin is hope!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/65cba07e-1e6a-4f50-93b0-ed31b22031f6.jpg

2023-05-25 13:38:21

Bitcoin miner to exchange flows in general downward trend
The amount of bitcoin send to exchanges by miners is in a clear downward trend when looking at the 365-day moving average and the 7-day moving average. Both are trending lower since the last bull run.
Part of that may be miners increasingly conducting over-the-counter deals instead of selling on exchanges. In that case, the selling pressure has just shifted elsewhere.
Another factor is the professionalization of the mining space, with more and more companies that are potentially well-capitalized and have less pressure to sell their mined bitcoin to cover their operating costs at the moment.
For example, Marathon increased its bitcoin holdings by 20% from 9,673 BTC in March 2022 to 11,568 BTC in March 2023. Still, they sold 600 BTC in April to support monthly operations etc.
The professionalization may have also led to a shift from exchanges towards over-the-counter deals not showing up in the data.
But on average, it seems reasonable to assume that part of that decline in the data is due to reduced selling pressures by bitcoin miners.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/283d4fd3-2a97-46e0-b6e1-99975044df99.png

2023-05-25 09:56:29

A Blueprint for Bitcoin Mining and Energy in #Africa
Gridless recently released a great report on how #Bitcoin mining can help close the electricity gap by making mini-grids more feasible.
The potential benefits and applications are vast, and we are only beginning to grasp them.
If Bitcoin mining can accelerate the establishment of mini-grids across Africa, it could have numerous positive implications for economic development and beyond.
Highly exciting to see what the future brings and how it evolves.
https://gridlesscompute.com/2023/05/17/a-blueprint-for-bitcoin-mining-and-energy-in-africa/

2023-05-24 10:39:07

The money supply in the US is still shrinking, which is historic considering the available data from 1980 onwards, with the Fed being hard on the brakes by that measure.
But, zooming out, it is still far far away from pre-Covid levels where the money supply has grown strongly.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/7c8e720a-2552-44c7-b060-b327346ce5ee.png

2023-05-23 14:31:35

The percent of the #Bitcoin supply that has not moved for at least one year has resumed its trend of making new all-time highs. 🚀
Now at 68.13%.
Not to mention the supply last moved 2+ years ago, which shows a clear upward trend.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/c2192b58-3796-4d0a-b2fe-554098b113e6.png

2023-05-20 09:52:46

Simple, yet so beautiful!🧡🧡🧡
Wishing everyone a great weekend! 🌞
#Bitcoin
https://unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-source-code-21-million/
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/9e35def5-87a4-49d8-9a1e-06069403fe5b.png

2023-05-14 18:45:28

So tell me, why again did some of you freak out last week worrying about an attack on the #Bitcoin network, suggesting protocol changes etc.?
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/fbde7e03-79ea-40f1-8e9e-767dc6fd4a6f.jpg

2023-05-14 18:25:17

It's quite remarkable to see how the percentage of #Bitcoin supply that hasn't been moved for at least two years continues to increase rapidly, currently standing at almost 54.8%.
And yes, I am aware that this is largely attributed to coins that have last moved during the bull run, and you could say it is new bagholders. However, it's worth noting that despite the potential for these individuals to have given up and sold their holdings, they haven't (at least on the aggregate) .
https://i.imgur.com/qOJO8nR.jpg

2023-05-07 13:27:36

The destiny of all fiat currencies:
Eventually, banknotes will become a more practical substitute for pricey toilet paper.
#Bitcoin is your way out.
(This photo illustrates the quantity of Bolivar required to purchase a single roll of toilet paper in 2018.)
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/5603ad70-3018-4947-bc76-0e64ffd6b50b.jpg

2023-05-07 11:29:36

It's going down forever, Laura!
Fake Bitcoin is trending towards zero against #Bitcoin.
https://i.imgur.com/qxiDbgt.jpg

2023-05-04 16:42:01

I am happy to announce the release of a working paper which I have written with my colleagues Teo Geldner and Joscha Beckmann entitled:
"The relevance of sentiment and media attention for bitcoin holdings across entities."
You can read the full paper here:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4436838
Too long didn’t read:
- small investors react strongly to public information and media narratives
- reaction of large-scale investors much weaker
- large-scale investors appear to rely more on non-public information, and they may have different investment objectives than small-scale investors
Long summary:
Our study investigates the relationship between sentiment, media attention, and bitcoin holdings among different entities using data from Glassnode for entity information and Thomson Reuters MarketPsych for sentiment data.
We differentiate between small and large entities and analyze how they react to incoming public information. We use linear break point regressions to account for potential shifts in the composition of the type of holders and/or changes in how bitcoin is treated as an asset over time.
Our main findings indicate that price dynamics and sentiment changes have varying effects on bitcoin holdings depending on the size of the entity's holdings. Small (retail) investors respond strongly to public information and media narratives, with their decisions strongly influenced by sentiment and media attention, while large-scale investors respond more weakly to such information.
Additionally, small-scale investors tend to increase their positions when bitcoin price increases, sentiment is positive, and buzz is high, while larger investors tend to react in opposing directions. These results are consistent with our expectations, as large-scale investors may have access to different non-public information for their investment decisions, and they may have different investment objectives compared to retail investors.
The literature on investor behavior in the Bitcoin space is still relatively
scarce, and the use of on-chain data in the economics field is also highly
limited. We hope our study can contribute to the literature by shedding more light on investor behavior in the bitcoin space and drawing attention to the blockchain as a valuable data source for academic research.
Finally, I would like to give a huge shout-out to Glassnode for compiling such a valuable data source.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/b8a51b09-07c4-4104-be41-b3dde9518ad1.png

2023-05-04 16:40:18

Bhutan has reportedly mined #Bitcoin for years and now plans to launch a $500M fund for Himalayan Bitcoin mining.
The country is also know for its Gross National Happiness index.
If you still needed confirmation this is it:
Bitcoin is happiness. 🧡😎
https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/bhutan-plans-a-500-million-fund-for-bitcoin-mining-in-the-himalayas/

2023-05-02 09:44:10

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It really was. You should definitely join next time. 😊

2023-05-02 09:14:48

Me channeling my inner strength for the normie world after a full weekend with #Bitcoin plebs at #BTCLändle:
https://i.imgur.com/wsOhd13.jpg

2023-05-02 09:14:48

Me channeling my inner strength for the normie world after a full weekend with #Bitcoin plebs at #BTCLändle:
https://i.imgur.com/wsOhd13.jpg

2023-05-01 16:37:12

#[0] > too-big-to-fail.
Few.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/cc6a712a-558c-455e-aa11-df9010062cf3.jpg

2023-05-01 15:59:19

Too-big-to-fail bank becoming even bigger.
The system is by design becoming more centralized. You can't fix the system from within. It needs to be replaced.
#Bitcoin fixes this!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/dc4c5582-ab7c-4ecc-996f-5eb00dc481a0.jpg

2023-04-25 17:54:58

The $USD supply M2 continues to shrink.
In March:
YoY -4.05%
MoM -1.22%
In February:
YoY -2.29%
MoM -0.64%
It is shrinking at an increasing pace.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/047436aa-eb92-470a-8de0-65cfd3abe0dd.png

2023-04-25 15:31:21

You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy.
#Bitcoin fixes this!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/19366bec-ed3e-4917-831e-46f467249ba4.jpg

2023-04-24 20:59:02

Same same, but somehow different.
https://i.imgur.com/UFPdKeg.jpg

2023-04-24 15:37:51

Endlich die Zeit gehabt die neue und erste EP von #[0] anzuhören. Ein Banger nach dem anderen.
Habe jetzt einen Ohrwurm.
"Digi digitale Dystopie!
Scan die ID!
CBDC, jetzt bist du free!"
#Bitcoin https://player.wavlake.com/album/e9251bb2-ad59-483e-b409-b59517ef3d1a

2023-04-24 14:04:38

If there is one chart you need to know regarding #Bitcoin right now, it is the hashrate. 🚀
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/4622ebde-a69e-4a36-9192-abcb566eb937.png

2023-04-24 09:05:34

#Zimbabwe reportedly plans to launch a #gold-backed currency to stop their local currency in its free fall.
Well, good luck, trusting those that are responsible for the disaster that the currency is actually backed by gold.
This is what #Bitcoin is for. No trust is required.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/121c536a-c7bb-44bc-a23e-24fe14d5b76b.png

2023-04-23 13:18:11

Take note, guys: If you call Bitcoin mining facilities that use methane gas data centres instead, it suddenly becomes a win-win-win situation for the WEF instead of the climate killer:
1) lower operating costs for oil companies
2) good for environment 3) additional revenue
https://www.weforum.org/videos/this-start-up-catches-waste-methane-to-power-data-centres

2023-04-20 20:47:42

Everything you ever needed to know about crypto.
(by Masood Boomgaard)
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/1fb53ce6-2e03-4a14-8bf8-a7a01a99058a.mp4

2023-04-12 09:34:03

The financial system is so completely broken, overfinancialized and dependent on the cheap money drug provided by central banks that if something breaks, central banksters may be forced to turn on the money machine again regardless of what inflation does.
Take note, guys. If shit hits the fan, the common people come last. Your lifetime will be stolen. Protecting the financial system will take priority for better or worse. Admittedly they may not have a choice, as crashing the financial system would have horrible consequences.
They have created a monster they cannot control. A hungry growing monster they have no choice but to feed.
Study #Bitcoin if you have not done so yet and stack sats!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/a983476c-627a-4e39-8325-5788694ebcbd.png

2023-04-10 18:05:55

I am going ahead and going to call this the New York Times pump.
Thanks, New York Times!

2023-04-10 17:07:54

Two days after the NYTimes published an article about banks closing customers' accounts, they publish a hit piece on #Bitcoin.
I can't put my finger on it, but isn't there a solution to banks shutting out customers? Can anyone help me out here? https://t.co/ZVx3hmX2lS

2023-04-10 17:07:53

2023-04-10 17:06:26

#Bitcoin just crossed $29,000, outperforming any other asset this year.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/e10f0e7b-a6aa-4aa3-aeaf-f2e4c8f3e430.png

2023-04-10 12:30:54

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https://media.tenor.com/JdBwFy3GPC4AAAAM/dead-skeleton.gif

2023-04-10 12:19:54

Here is a friendly reminder:
Don't buy #Bitcoin. It's going to crash!!!
Over and over again to higher levels.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/04de4e74-ace4-45df-ab7b-08b6a25d9875.mp4

2023-04-09 12:54:16

Sometimes it just makes sense to put your eggs in one basket.
#Bitcoin $BTC #easter
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/3decb003-3e85-46d3-ba5c-9c4a6a3111a5.png

2023-04-08 16:29:50

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Even better combined with an ice bath. 😊

2023-04-08 15:34:32

Amazed by the fact that the percentage of the #Bitcoin supply that hasn't moved for at least 1 year is around all-time highs?
Well, here is an even cooler fact. 😎
Since this cycle on the aggregate, the percentage of the supply that has not moved for at least 2 years has hardly declined during the bull run and is trending upwards. 📈
It only slightly declined at the beginning of the bull run at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021.
That was different in 2017/2018, where a big decline could be observed.
Long-term holders are being made. 💎🙌
https://i.imgur.com/XCvUdvf.jpg

2023-04-08 12:05:43

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The bear is in da house! https://media.tenor.com/uNzFIWkBz6cAAAAM/bear-dance.gif

2023-04-07 19:49:54

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🙏

2023-04-07 19:46:28

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Thanks! 🙏

2023-04-07 19:46:04

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🙏

2023-04-07 19:45:56

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🙏

2023-04-07 19:44:41

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Thanks. 😊

2023-04-07 19:44:00

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Thanks! 🙏

2023-04-07 19:40:52

The Elon Doge pump-and-dump is almost complete.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/10c7e73f-89ff-4b5e-ad30-831a72af5e1c.png

2023-04-07 19:30:31

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If only...

2023-04-07 19:14:46

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🙏

2023-04-07 19:14:03

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Thanks! 🙂

2023-04-07 18:55:06

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Thanks! :)

2023-04-07 17:34:57

Bitcoin's supply: verifiable, predictable, just math. Beautiful.
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/3c117cbb-72f4-4275-b7ba-253cf2d10b2a.png

2023-04-07 17:02:11

#Bitcoin is hope! #DethroneCentralBanks!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/38fc325d-c2cd-4ae3-b49b-96d34d1d0eaa.jpg

2023-04-07 17:02:11

#Bitcoin is hope! #DethroneCentralBanks!
https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/38fc325d-c2cd-4ae3-b49b-96d34d1d0eaa.jpg