Peter du Toit

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureWork IQ | I speak about mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis | b. 316 ppm | 🇿🇦

𝗠𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆: Posts are set to auto delete after 60 days in an endeavour to assist with keeping server storage at a minimum. Important archives on listed blogs!

Across the Web: https://peterdutoit.com/links

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Last Notes

2024-11-10 06:10:41

Just so no one is surprised when we pass 2°C.
Emissions Gap Report:
“There are NO SIGNS of accelerated implementation, and countries are not even on track to deliver on their current NDCs.”
Emission reduction requirements from now until 2030:
For a 1.5° pathway 9% per year
Fora 2°C pathway 5.5% per year
Source: https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
#ClimateCrisis
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2024-08-08 13:41:32

Florida is definitely going to be going through some things.
Current instrument readings:
1.3ºC latest 5-year average above preindustrial
1.64ºC latest 12-month running mean above preindustrial
1.5ºC imminent (late 2020s early 2030s)
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388
#Florida #Insurance #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

2024-08-05 05:45:03

“The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. These results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y
#ClimateCrisis
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2024-07-31 06:40:23

As we continue to heat, let us never underestimate the far reaching impacts of #heatwaves
Image credit: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/India_Pak-Heatwave-scientific-report.pdf
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateRisk
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/879/728/809/158/887/original/02cfe09f083fae9e.jpeg

2024-07-27 09:27:52

Did you know:
In the global top 15 GHD emitters, populations in the United States, Australia, Germany and Indonesia are the least alarmed about the #ClimateCrisis
The two countries with the most dismissives:
United States (12%)
Australia (11%)
Data: https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/six-audiences-around-the-world/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/857/741/484/858/230/original/e4276e4ac2bb6dda.png

2024-07-24 07:12:34

We urgently need to prepare to live in a +2°C world.
But as with everything climate related we are completely off track:
“The current adaptation finance gap is now estimated at US$194-366 billion per year. At the same time, adaptation planning and implementation appear to be plateauing. This failure to adapt has massive implications for losses and damages, particularly for the most vulnerable,” and for the global economy. (https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023)
#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation #ClimateLiteracy
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/840/214/611/962/287/original/f957d916f58201f3.jpeg

2024-07-24 04:20:32

July 22 and the record is broken again. This time by a wider margin (.06°C)
C3S/ECMWF: “In the coming days, we are expecting the daily global average temperature to further increase and peak around 22 or 23 July 2024 and then go down, but with possible further fluctuations in the coming weeks.” https://climate.copernicus.eu/new-record-daily-global-average-temperature-reached-july-2024
#ClimateCrisis
From: @npub1cpe…aula
https://mastodon.green/@peterdutoit/112833790347860094
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/839/542/514/458/798/original/65157c5d0bf0a3c8.jpeg

2024-07-23 04:58:56

- reply

I know this is slightly off topic but conference organisers *really* need to get their act together. There is *so* much they can do to replicate the in-person experience virtually.
But this requires a leadership that fully grasp the crisis we are in and design everything they do accordingly. That of course is the greatest challenge of all - changing the minds of the old guard.

2024-07-21 07:01:00

First come the heatwaves and now comes the smoke.
#ClimateCrisis #Wildfires #WildfireSmoke #Canada #UnitedStates
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/823/185/972/550/440/original/a89f7986ea7f0d11.jpeg
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/823/186/532/323/963/original/a723247763f3d0a5.jpeg

2024-07-20 09:53:25

Are we going to beat the July 6, 2023 record in the next few days?
What do you think?
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/818/203/816/501/335/original/dfaa8acb883d08ad.png

2024-07-19 06:21:21

The words “collapse of the land carbon sink in 2023” should terrify the crap out of us!
“In the coming years if this decline continues, we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming which was unforeseen in future climate models projections.”— Philippe Ciais
Research here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/811/707/399/422/817/original/cc24c8941d816ac0.jpeg

2024-07-16 08:56:23

- reply

In 2024 (as of July 9), there have been 15 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/795/326/839/194/083/original/249fe567ffb69d37.png

2024-07-16 08:43:27

How much do you think climate change will harm you personally?
🇮🇳 #India
A great deal - 54%
A moderate amount - 21%
Only a little - 7%
Not at all - 5%
Don't know - 12%
🇺🇸 @UnitedStates
A great deal - 23%
A moderate amount - 26%
Only a little - 17%
Not at all - 20%
Don't know - 14%
Data: https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/international-public-opinion-climate-change-2023.pdf
#ClimateRisk #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/795/280/003/209/256/original/b5625419c230e796.png

2024-07-11 13:03:06

When things fall apart as we cruise through the 1.5ºC and then 2ºC thresholds, let us never forget why.
We continue to burn fossil fuels, paying absolutely no attention to the science and the highway to hell this is putting us on.
#ClimateCrisis #Coal
Data: https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/boom-and-bust-coal-2024/
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2024-06-20 13:02:24

#HeatLiteracy which falls under the umbrella term #ClimateLiteracy is one of the competencies that individuals will need to acquire.
Here is a great resource! https://www.weather.gov/wrn/summer-heat-sm#sp01
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves
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2024-06-20 07:38:47

Absolutely *no one* can say we have not been warned.
Reports of impacts from all the regions highlighted here are now a plenty.
We are at +1.3°C of heating (latest 5-year avg.)
We are to pass +1.5°C permanently shortly.
We are in a full blown #ClimateEmergency.
Data: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/647/800/229/695/456/original/35a31e2fb52fa891.jpeg

2024-06-20 05:18:10

What’s it like in northern India during this #heateave
Read a first hand account here - it’s frightening.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1803263887598350377.html
#India #ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/647/250/607/581/825/original/bdc3e0ed66968680.jpeg

2024-06-17 06:13:56

As ever increasing #ClimateChaos is making #adaptation critical, these barriers are standing in the way:
- limited resources
- lack of private sector & citizen engagement
- insufficient finance
- low climate literacy
- lack of political commitment
- limited adaptation research
- slow and low uptake of adaptation science
- low sense of urgency
We are going to get caught off guard!
Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy
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2024-06-15 19:49:04

⚠️ Early warning for Europe
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/first-significant-heatwave-summer-2024-forecast-europe-mk/
#Heatwave #ClimateLiteracy

2024-06-13 10:06:05

- reply

3) "What is it that takes Earth back to 1.5°C after overshoot? What the climate models show is that once GHG emissions are turned off, temperatures will gradually decline, as CO2 is absorbed in the biosphere on land and in the ocean. Is this likely to happen? The simply answer is, we do not know"
end/

2024-06-13 10:05:47

- reply

2) "We will be exceeding the likely threshold when tipping elements like all coral reef systems, the great Ice sheets (GIS/WAIS) and permafrost thawing, shift state from "good" to "bad". Will these tipping elements cope with a period of overshoot? We do not know. It will be a very risky period."

2024-06-13 10:05:22

- reply

1) "We know with 100 % certainty that this means rising frequency and strength of extreme events. So, the message to the world is this "buckle up" because we are inevitably facing 30-40yrs of rising climate damages to societies across the world. It will even at best - get worse before it gets better."

2024-06-13 10:04:59

"The best we can accomplish, is 1.5°C with overshoot. The reason for this is that we have already loaded so much energy/heat into the Earth system, that even if we stopped all emissions today, we are already committed to warming exceeding 1.5°C"—Prof Johan Rockström
What doe this imply?
A 🧵
#ClimateCrisis #Overshoot
https://bsky.app/profile/pik-potsdam.bsky.social/post/3kusbukrnss2c

2024-06-09 15:15:07

If aviation were a country, it would be the world’s sixth-biggest emitter, falling after China, the US, India, Russia, and Japan.
Reminder: The CO2 emissions from these 23,000 flights will last in the atmosphere for 300-1,000 years.
#ClimateLiteracy #Aviation
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/587/312/092/395/477/original/078a5d1eedafbc65.jpeg

2024-06-06 06:16:22

This tells you *everything* you need to know about how serious the fossil fuel industry is about the clean energy transition.
“The Godfathers of climate chaos – the fossil fuel industry – rake in record profits and feast off trillions in taxpayer-funded subsidies.”—Antonio Guterres
#ClimateCrisis
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/568/206/568/645/862/original/13d71d65e108c97d.jpeg

2024-06-05 18:00:41

This is *absolutely* the right call:
“I urge every country to ban advertising from fossil fuel companies.
“And I urge news media and tech companies to stop taking fossil fuel advertising.” — Antonio Guterres
#ClimateCrisis #ClimateAction
Full remarks here: https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2024-06-05/secretary-generals-special-address-climate-action-moment-of-truth%C2%A0
https://files.mastodon.green/media_attachments/files/112/565/315/863/358/601/original/c96b78ab26c1f062.mp4

2024-05-31 04:46:39

Here I am sounding like a broken record again.
There is no evidence of an emergency “Covid-like” response to emission reductions.
As a result, we need to prepare physically, mentally and emotionally for a world at 2° within the next 20 years.
#ClimateCrisis
https://rhg.com/research/global-fossil-fuel-demand/
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2024-05-28 01:59:41

14 September 2023: “It is now almost certain that the 12-month running mean temperature will exceed 1.5°C by May 2024 or earlier.” —Hansen et al
April 2024: 12-month running mean temperature +1.63°C (Berkeley Earth & ERA5 datasets)
Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf
Berkeley Earth: https://berkeleyearth.org/april-2024-temperature-update/
ERA5: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2024Heatwave
#ClimateCrisis
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2024-05-26 07:34:32

2024 is not just an election year. It is THE election year.
64 countries—representing a combined global population of about 49%—are holding national elections, the results of which will prove massively consequential as we head deeper into the #ClimateCrisis
#Vote to keep fossil fuels in the ground!
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2024-05-23 19:47:01

I don’t think any of us really understand how quickly collapse can happen:
> About 85% of the country expected to see highs of at least 40°C
> Almost 40% of the country’s dams below 20%
> 40% are between 20 and 50%.
> Mexico City (Population 22.51 million) forced to reduce water supply as reservoirs that feed city dry up.
> Stores running out of mineral water.
https://apnews.com/article/mexico-heatwave-drought-protests-monkey-deaths-6310778f139ef786a8c70301fb340bd5
#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Mexico

2024-05-11 13:43:55

"I don't say this lightly - but the floods in
#PortoAlegre, #Brazil, are looking comparable to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005 -- massive evacuations, water & power outages, key infrastructure damaged, parts of city, possible long-term consequences."—Brian Winter
Background heating +1.3ºC
#ClimateCrisis
1/
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2024-05-09 07:23:40

These instrument readings serve as a stark reminder of our current trajectory.
They not only reflect our past and present actions but also foreshadow a future dictated by them - ie a world that has heats to between 2.1-3.5ºC
It is only when these figures begin to reverse that we can confidently say our efforts to change course are effective.
Pay attention to the instruments!
Graphic source: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/112340885914056186
#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis
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