TimCScott

Husband and father. Software Engineer. Peace and love. Class of 2015.

Public Key

npub1c3hwdda20vrs09x40sme99p2gwpat8k6j0xzmdvnhpnh5aljksysrs5xnm

NIP-05 Address

timcscott@nostrcheck.me

NIP-57 Address

timcscott@zeuspay.com

Profile Code

nprofile1qqsvgmhxk748kpc8jn2hcdujjs4y8q74nmdf8npdkkfmsem6wletgzgxlcvk7

Author Public Key

npub1c3hwdda20vrs09x40sme99p2gwpat8k6j0xzmdvnhpnh5aljksysrs5xnm

Show more details

Last Notes

2025-01-12 23:31:20

Finally found time to setup Alby Hub on my Unraid home server. Was much easier than I thought it would be. If you've been considering it, go for it.
#selfhosted #alby #unraid #bitcoin

2025-01-09 23:04:25

Arrived in the mail today. Looking forward to reading it.
#books #reading #economics
https://image.nostr.build/11608af9491fca6e448da6e1f7e09fe408a9dc05c14718f9567f4b0c907f1a68.jpg

2025-01-09 18:58:02

- reply

The only 2 things you can control in life are your effort and your attitude.

2025-01-09 18:22:14

- reply

How do you define better? Looks like tough times ahead.

2025-01-08 23:39:05

- reply

Hahah love it

2025-01-08 23:36:49

- reply

Looks great

2025-01-08 21:46:11

https://open.spotify.com/track/3AkW5Ua1SR2ROUp0Hh1LPE

2025-01-08 01:12:42

- reply

Got it. Thanks, makes sense.

2025-01-08 00:15:25

- reply

Hi Rod, what problem is the double vpn setup solving? Or what is its goal? Learning.

2025-01-07 23:57:13

- reply

Looking good

2025-01-07 18:01:31

https://open.spotify.com/track/13qqdlSeF8FcxsRyapDMZ0

2025-01-07 16:43:03

https://open.spotify.com/track/3T1CEAG5ukgdqGvQuXWzqI

2025-01-07 14:47:13

https://open.spotify.com/track/7lYbLtqdpNInA2F16OMmOq

2025-01-05 14:36:26

Within years, let alone decades, it will be widely understood that almost anyone of talent could accumulate a much higher net worth and enjoy a better life by abandoning high-tax nation-states.
#freedom

2025-01-05 14:05:14

- reply

Sorry to hear that.

2025-01-05 13:16:30

GM Another #cold day ahead. #nostr vibes keeping the soul warm. https://image.nostr.build/01845ae401910db3b5bd1d061ff81505a506455eee2f4f06aa83c03fc20578a3.jpg

2025-01-05 12:46:03

https://archive.ph/vN5Oh

2025-01-04 19:37:29

https://open.spotify.com/track/5y2H3YMH4BcIVMYaqr7NPB

2025-01-04 18:09:41

Ambitious people understand, then, that a migratory way of life is the price of getting ahead. -- Christopher Lasch
#history

2025-01-04 17:35:44

https://open.spotify.com/track/5buITai6eMzU8rJonMEI6e

2025-01-04 16:31:22

What Nocoiners seriously undervalue and misunderstand is that Bitcoin is not subject to any single legal, trade or economic barriers. Information technology is going to create economic inequality unlike anything ever experienced before.
Bitcoin commands a higher value precisely because it undermines the ideas of every single nation state. Bitcoin is highly valued because it is settled under no jurisdiction.
In a economic climate where rich industrial countries face backlash from its citizens because of economic inequality, that very fact alone will make assets that are beyond the reach of the nation state all the more valuable. Bitcoin is the most secure/hardest/valuable asset in the world in this scenario.
Plan accordingly.
#bitcoin #freedom

2025-01-04 14:24:58

Looking for something to read with your weekend morning coffee? Here's an article I wrote earlier this week about US Bonds/Economy since Fed rate cuts.
#nevent1q…hwkx

2025-01-04 13:24:16

GM - Keeping an especially warm heart today
Peace and love✌️ https://image.nostr.build/e0906b64df0778da01e8457a7dd481e28c393cf52705139550479961604a0956.jpg

2025-01-04 13:16:28

- reply

GM, Have a great day Ryan. Freezing cold here too.

2025-01-04 03:28:21

- reply

Thanks.

2025-01-04 00:48:30

- reply

Hi Singh, where is this taken from? I would like to read it in its entirety if possible. Thanks.

2025-01-03 23:12:38

https://apnews.com/article/el-salvador-homicides-gangs-bukele-69384a8705267eaddd18dcd28a53465b

2025-01-03 22:52:00

https://open.spotify.com/track/4jLv3tDBu8ww2R07DvL12s?si=6GUVI1OeTfCF2NDd--kDIw

2025-01-03 14:03:18

GM Happy Friday. Some winter light pillars to start my day. https://image.nostr.build/28f28234411929c202f0dbc1073e2178b6d92bac93daf8894f3a0ef1d5b5c3a0.jpg
#winter #lights

2025-01-03 00:43:00

A BRIEF LOOK BACK AT US BONDS/ASSETS/BITCOIN SINCE FED RATE CUT (SEP 18 – DEC 31)
TLDR: US Debt Trap – Stubborn Inflation – Hold Bitcoin
Happy New Year! My first post of any real substance on Nostr. I wanted to challenge myself over the Christmas holidays and finally dive into Nostr with the hopes of publishing my thoughts in short article form and engaging with the community. My first few days on here have been very positive. As someone who comes from a small town, I see a lot of similarities to the Nostr community.
There’s not a lot we can concretely predict into the future from a little over 100 days of data, but let’s take a look at where we are at and have some fun.
On September 18, 2024 the FOMC started its latest easing cycle and as of December 31st 2024 the effective funds rate has seen 100 basis points in cuts.
Let’s take a closer look at what treasury rates did over this time period and what my opinions are on what we are seeing. IMO Bond rates give the best signal of where things are and where the smartest money in the world thinks things are going.
https://image.nostr.build/6301ba5cd5881719ddb7d51d2aeeab4cee0588194d2679bdf13ffd20f6109199.jpg
I take away a few things from this. Effective Fed Funds Rate has eased 100 basis points and the 10 Year yield has risen by almost 100 basis points. The economy is relatively strong, investors aren’t really worried and are still willing to invest their money elsewhere than the bond market. That being said while yields are starting to un-invert and flatten, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the bond market. It’s important to remember the rate cuts have not been because the US is worried about a recession. The US is in a debt trap and deficits to GDP have never been this high. Is now a good time to own long term debt denominated in USD? No, it isn’t… bond rates are clearly signaling that they are not convinced inflation is going away and that future rate cuts are expected to slow. If inflation was to go higher (which seems a reasonable consideration), anything long term denominated in USD loses. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10-year yields test 5% again – The last time was in Oct 2023 and was only there for mere minutes. Next time, it might stay above it.
The US Public debt was 35.331T on Sep 18 and increased to 36.150T by Dec 30 (as per treasury.gov), an increase of 819 billion in new public debt in 103 days. This is slightly less bad than some previous reports of 1T in new debt every 100 days. The majority of the issuance during this time period has been in the 2-year and less durations. The smartest Bond holders sold off massive quantities of long dated treasuries during COVID believing prices would fall when yields rose. They were betting taxes would not rise nearly enough to offset deficit spending during the pandemic. They were right – bond holders who stayed put got hosed, experiencing one of the biggest drops since World War I. The US Government stepped in and bought ALL long-term Treasuries issued at times between 2020-2022. When the government finally stopped buying, yields spiked and prices crashed. This dilemma still exists today, just on a smaller scale – the US Government needs to actually demonstrate a commitment of raising taxes or cutting spending for a sustained period. Good luck.
The 30-year mortgage rate has increased from 6.15% on Sep 18 to 7.07% on Dec 31 (as per MortgageNewsDaily). This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as it is very closely tied to the 10-year yield. Mortgage rates have increased 92 basis points, and the 10-year yield has increased 88 basis points. Mortgage rates north of 6% were perfectly normal pre-2008 – time to get used to it. QE and interest rate repression messed up the mortgage market and will now likely bounce in the opposite direction in the coming years. Owning real estate as an investment doesn’t look good at all in the coming decade IMO.
The price of gold has increased from $2,570.10 on Sep 18 to $2,616.00 on Dec 27 (as per YCharts) up roughly 1.79% during this time period. Gold’s price movements often signal where investors think inflation is going. However notably, the DXY was at 100.6 on Sep 18 and up to 108.49 on Dec 31. This tends to keep prices of gold down. This also feeds back into my premise that the US economy is strong and investors aren’t worried. International investment in the US is very attractive and is being well rewarded at this time.
Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well over this time as well. Rising from $61,649 on Sep 18 to $93,429 on Dec 31 (as per CoinMarketCap) a gain of over 51%. I am pretty biased when it comes to Bitcoin, I am a big advocate and believe everyone should have at least some. It allows you to opt out of the market manipulation and dysfunction created by central planners. Clearly this easing cycle has been very positive for the volatile asset, rising as high as $108,268 on Dec 17th. My core thesis is still that inflation is going to be more persistent than the majority believes. That the 10-year yield will hit 5% again in 2025 and inflation will see an uptick are positive Bitcoin – granted as the community says – everything is good for Bitcoin. All I’ll add is that we are still incredibly early, so many people still have no knowledge of Bitcoin or it’s benefits, there is always work to do.
We’ve barely scratched the shrink wrap of the economic/market data we could have looked at in this post. I wanted to keep this relatively short (was aiming for 500 words – blew past that). If you enjoyed this post, please consider giving it a boost on your Nostr feed. As my friend Deckard Cain would say – Stay awhile and listen. Until next time.
Peace and Love.

2025-01-02 12:27:48

GM - May I be grateful for every hand that lifted me, every heart that guided me.

2025-01-01 21:02:46

- reply

Happy New Year. Its's great being a BTC Dad.

2025-01-01 21:01:04

- reply

Happy New Year CombatDagwood

2025-01-01 17:02:49

- reply

One user at a time

2025-01-01 16:55:36

- reply

Beep boop beep

2025-01-01 16:54:42

- reply

Happy New Year Joel, all the best.

2025-01-01 16:51:38

- reply

Thanks Zach, appreciate it.

2025-01-01 16:42:12

- reply

Thanks Chris, appreciate it.

2025-01-01 16:40:41

- reply

Thanks Rand

2025-01-01 15:35:35

- reply

Thanks BitCat

2025-01-01 15:34:22

- reply

Thanks TK, appreciate the kind welcome.

2025-01-01 15:31:19

- reply

Did you ever find out what the issue was with your UPS? I only implemented my 1st UPS setup recently. I've tested that everything shuts down gracefully in a controlled environment, but clearly the UPS is a potential failure point.

2025-01-01 14:38:42

- reply

Thanks Seth. All the best.

2025-01-01 14:36:51

- reply

GM Derek 🤙

2025-01-01 12:38:22

- reply

Happy New Year Trey. New to Nostr but a regular listener to your podcast. Keep up the good work. All the best.

2025-01-01 12:21:15

- reply

Thanks. Happy New Year.

2025-01-01 11:47:53

- reply

Thanks Rod, Happy New Year.

2025-01-01 11:10:08

Happy New Year Nostr! I am brand new here (last week) and striving to make it my new home in 2025 and beyond.
I will be zapping all comments on this post today 50 sats to wish you and your family health, happiness and prosperity in the new year.
#introductions
I am a husband, father and software engineer by trade. I have a passion for Bitcoin (class of 2015), Economics, Philosophy, Technology and a bit of everything else :).
If any of these topics interest you, please consider giving me a follow as I am planning to write short form articles on these topics regularly on my Nostr feed.
Excited to be a part of this community to discuss, contribute and build.
Best wishes -- Peace and Love.

2024-12-31 20:40:30

- reply

Thank you for a prompt response. Greatly appreciated 👍

2024-12-31 20:39:25

- reply

Thank you, greatly appreciate the quick response ☺️.

2024-12-31 20:30:15

- reply

Hi Derek, I am new to nostr, maybe you can answer this question... what is the difference between making a long (blog) post in Amethyst as opposed to Yakihonne. I am considering something similar (somewhat regular longer posts -- maybe 500+ words), but didn't realize I need different clients for different post types. Thx.

2024-12-31 15:12:21

- reply

Great job, keep up the good work. Haven't had a drink since 2016.🤙

2024-12-31 14:28:25

- reply

My bad... can you tell I am new at this 😂😂

2024-12-31 14:27:41

- reply

Thanks for the info

2024-12-31 14:24:50

- reply

well said 🤙