SpacemanSpiff

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Last Notes

2024-08-14 20:50:08

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Intetestingly, I have found that primary sources do handle assumptions and uncertainly reasonably well, buy then corporate media reports worst case scenarios without the nuance. Similar to when @nprofile…3tqm goes on podcasts and presents a nuanced economic narrative, and then the video title extracts the most sensational lines out of context. There are exceptions of course (Michael Mann should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell for example) and the politicization of the system eliminates viewpoints that don't support global socialist takeover of the economy - but I don't think the lack.of nuance on the part of climate scientists is a significant part of the problem.

2024-08-13 18:21:16

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Next: hook up a loghtning wallet and take my sats plz.

2024-07-30 15:18:32

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You left out the part where they murdered a quarter of the population then utterly bankrupted the country by running an economy based on political favors for 3 generations. But yeah for brevity's sake I guess "lost faith" sums it up.

2024-07-30 15:15:31

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On account of all the cspitalist wreckers!

2024-07-30 06:36:55

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But is it mostly peaceful or an insurrection?

2024-07-28 16:24:40

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This is why some intelligent people are able to leverage their work ethic in great things, while some chronically underachieve. The ability to fashion a game for oneself out of an arbitrary playing field is simply not taught, and it is possibly *the* critical life skill.

2024-07-24 08:28:36

Tempting to think we are in the Commodus years. I doubt it. If we are Rome this is Sulla vs the Gracchis (Trump). A populist goes against leviathan and goes down in a blaze of glory, cementing a toxic oligarchy that leads to a populist coup a generation later.
On the other hand, if you buy that Brittania was Rome and America is Byzantium, then the 20th century looks a lot like the 6th, a geographic lob of the dying culture to a more defensible location under one last great dynasty. The dynasty is steadily chipped away over dozens of generations as bureacrats, gangsters, allies, and enemies all extract pounds of flesh from the decadent corpes until eventually, they cannot even afford the obvious new weapons to defend themselves.
I see more clear parallels in the latter.

2024-07-24 07:27:45

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I have worked for him. He is an Edison-level engineer. I've seen him make incredibly ballsy calls based wholly on arcane technical details in extremely emotional situations. Having observed for a couple decades and been in the belly of the beast for more than half that I may be biased... but I think that is what detractors miss. They assume he is Richard Branson, but he is much more like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs. You basically need to corrupt and undermine all of a society to stop that kind of force.

2024-07-23 02:12:02

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"Polling shows that our outdated 'more liberal => more conservative' axis delivers meaningless results no matter what question we ask!"

2024-07-04 08:20:27

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Say it ain't so Cal! Another hero slain.

2024-07-04 08:13:36

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Unable to create an invoice. Inbound liquidity strikes? OG post shows 264k zaps, if the mean is 1000 sats thats 2.64 bitcoin.

2024-06-22 07:39:43

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It's pretty dark but in a Mars Attacks kinda way. Enjoy the ride.

2024-05-26 01:30:38

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Big if true.

2024-05-25 15:29:43

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Nah, the bank transfer will take longer than 3-5 days and you will need to expose all your personal information to exploitation in order to use it.

2024-05-15 05:53:07

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I don't think it's even about revenues. It's a disincentive to sell assets in order to create fake scarcity and prevent the bubble from bursting. The funny thing is it will be sold as countering inequality while exacerbating it, and the sheep will buy it.

2024-05-14 14:16:45

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This is similar to what happened in Europe b/w arpund 400 and 1000. The Roman Empire grew corrupt and decayed, leaving a fractal political hierarchy loosely coordinated by the church and intermarried nobility. This loose confederation was called the dark ages or low middle ages.
By all means there were pros and cons. Clearly trade was much more difficult, but local economies were more self-sufficient. Stifling and corrupt bureaucracy was much less of a problem, but it was a roll of the dice whether your local lord was a sociopathic minityrant. The reach of a state was limited and escape was geographically easier, but it was difficult to be assimilated elsewhere. The size of internecine wars was kept in check by the presnce of multiple opportunistic armies on every microstate's border, but it was difficult to organize defense against powerful outside invaders like the Arabs, Huns, Bulgars, and later the Mongols - although to be fair Rome didn't fare much better. In the end the game theory of strongest army wins caused consolidation into states and later empires.
Small states plus freedom of trade and movement seems like an optimum, but I'm not sure it's actually possible. Even the most successful such confederation, the German one that spawned the reformation, was eventually forced to consolidate around a quasi-military dictatorship. Maybe changing the economics of violence changes this - if immigrants bring wealth with them perhaps assimilation is more incentivized; and likewise the returns to local tyranny are reduced if peasants can hold their own wealth irrevocably.

2024-05-05 22:22:22

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We can play what ifs but what was the realistic timeline? There were about 4M slaves in the US in 1860. Peaceful emancioation was not imminent. How many years of their nominal freedom was 655k worth? It's not obvious that electing a tyrant was not the right thing to do at that time.

2024-05-05 22:10:36

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I still haven't drunken the anti-Lincoln koolaid. I get it, he was a tyrant. But when you shun natural laws for long enough, you end up with the law of the jungle and all that comes with it. I haven't heard a credible theory about how you avoid Lincoln without 2-4 more generations of chattel slavery.

2024-05-05 21:51:40

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What comes after it? I recall in the 90s and 00s it seemed like the tax thing was stalemated but what you're saying is that just escalated things. Is there something between this and hyperinflation?

2024-05-05 21:36:34

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Just get her a set of serrated knives.

2024-05-05 21:31:45

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Welcome to the Google red pill club!

2024-03-22 15:20:16

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Good post, but disappointed you feel into the trap of branding your colleague with your rival's "climate denier" slur without irony or qualification. In current discourse the term is used against anyone who adopts even moderate views on the topic. Words matter!

2024-03-20 04:08:16

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The right plays the language game too. Patriot Act. No Child Left Behind. War on Drugs. Axis of Evil. When the game is to see who can promise the most impossible things in order to get their hands on the newly stolen money first, sociopathy consumes every ideology. Maybe there's a difference of degree or timing, but really that just means you're the sucker in a rigged game.

2024-03-10 15:54:26

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The church has ways.

2024-03-10 06:36:19

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obligatory:
https://img.ifunny.co/images/00b0708b963f33f12ff5e8b0b6d645b7a06ddb7a4e8270b3478b05562cea1d18_1.jpg

2024-03-10 06:29:57

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They're trying to build a prison for you amd me to live in

2024-02-22 07:42:06

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Argh no lightning support

2024-02-22 07:38:40

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Every time Signal asks for money I click the link... and every time there is still no option to pay in bitcoin and I close the link.

2024-01-27 08:07:42

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Yep, slightly diff details, but same. We pulled a bunch out of the market anticipating a big dip and, 3 years later... a small fortune losing 10% a year in t bills and an approved home design with quotes 40% above what we planned for. Eh, #UnicornProblems. I consider myself extremely lucky that this is the thing that keeps me up at night. You're in a no-lose quandary when it's all said and done right?

2023-11-28 20:52:00

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Reject the premise. Ethics evolved through natural & group selection which suggests they are consequentialist at root.
Society is a complex system in a complex environment, so consequentialism is impossible to enact in practice. Deontologic rules developed to codify best practices; bit those best practices become pathological if conditions change.
So then character variance serves the role of recombination and mutation so the evolving system can react to changes in technology and environment. Even character traits like psychopathy are valuable and celebrated in society in certain situations.

2023-11-19 16:42:40

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Late X. Early: Tom Swift, Ender's Game, Dune, Larry Niven. Later, Atlas Shrugged, The Dispossessed, Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man, Hemingway, Harry Potter, Hunger Games. NOT Catcher in the Rye, it's navel-gazing cruft that Joyce did far better.
OG Star Wars trilogy, OG Star Trek movies and TNG/DS9 series, ET, Alien(s). The Big Lebowski, the Shawshank/Pulp/Gump Oscar race, Saving Private Ryan, The Matrix, Old School, Gladiator, Bladerunner, Braveheart. We lived through the 2nd golden age of historical epics and the first of big budget scifi, a well as some truly great soundtracks.
We largely grew up in the great television desert but X Files, Seinfeld, That 70s Show, Friends, and early ER stand out. Band of Brothers is the best thing ever put on a screen of any form imho.

2023-10-28 08:41:00

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EVs in most climates and most actually built generation mixes use more fossil fuel than ICE.

2023-10-24 21:32:23

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You mean your $0.30 zaps just got a whole lot cheaper?

2023-10-21 06:45:12

Bond market:
https://image.nostr.build/a5a1148940e0190fd31bb3ca8c7135eb013ba7ae5042ef680dd4534d20b88709.jpg

2023-10-14 06:40:14

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Their first pod with Joe Carlasare.

2023-10-14 06:37:53

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Victor Davis Hanson, Second World Wars interview with Peter Robinson:
PR: Why is there a plural in the title?
VDH: ...One is that, from 1939, when Germany divided up Poland with the Soviet Union, until... April of '41 - there was a Polish war, there was a Norwegian war, there was a Danish war, a low country war, there was a French war the blitz, there was a Yugoslav war, there was a Greek war. And all of those together weren't called the second world war. They were seen as isolated border blitzkriegs... And then something weird happened. In 1941 Germany... invaded its de facto ally the Soviet Union... Japan bombed Pearl Harbor... suddenly these border wars where nobody really knew what they were became the Second World War.

2023-10-09 23:41:21

2023-06-02 21:18:16

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How an economy based on deflationary currency works. Not just high level like why the Keynesian argument about death spiral is separate from productivity driven deflation, but nuts and bolts stuff. How would small businesses get finance without cheap debt? What would coax money out of savings? Assuming some fractional reserve how would banking crises be resolved?