Nicholas Grossman

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

[bridged from nicholasgrossman.bsky.social on Bluesky by Bridgy Fed]

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Last Notes

2025-05-02 12:46:28

I guess it’s possible Douthat is such a myopic ideologue that he doesn’t think of himself as trying to advance an anti-democracy project.
But if you say X, sanitizing bad things, then events clearly show Y, and you plow ahead with X anyway, you’re doing something, but it’s not intellectual inquiry.
The Non-Education of Ross Dout...

2025-04-23 21:05:46

We don’t agree on much, but I think we can all agree that, if Cardinal Pizzaballa becomes Pope, he should keep his name.

2025-04-16 21:42:59

"Maybe Twitter *Is* Real Life" aged... interestingly.
The main argument about Twitter's influence still holds, but the mechanism of offline influence, and who specifically shaped that influence, changed after Musk bought it and turned it into X.
Maybe Twitter *Is* Real Life

2025-04-16 21:35:31

Interesting discussion between some of the most insightful voices in media (and on media) @joelanderson.bsky.social and @bryancurtis.bsky.social of the Press Box and NYT columnist @jamellebouie.net.
Touches on a lot, but I especially liked the behind-the-scenes talk about the NY Times opinion page.
25 for 25: The New York Times’...

2025-04-12 16:08:29

A society needs population growth so there are more workers than retirees, that makes sense.
But the goal there is a comfortable retirement for old people combined with rising standards of living for everyone. Very far from "why does everyone want human extinction except for some Nazis and me?"

2025-04-06 16:06:19

Indeed. The Trump admin isn't just excited for Americans to have the sort of low pay, poor conditions jobs that got outsourced to China years ago, they're excited for Americans to be forced to do it so cheaply that it's less expensive than existing robots.
(Or just BSing to defend the indefensible)
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:gvda6fem6r7selm4gzjjww4a/post/3lm5t3vhhcs2i
#nevent1q…93ah

2025-04-06 13:46:22

Movie marketing goes "The Number 1 Family Comedy in America!" because people like being a part of the community.
Many are afraid of sticking their necks out, but also fear missing out. Lying that something is popular when it isn't won't work. But showing that something is a popular movement might.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r75unbj372lvbim6syioaueo/post/3lm3mdt4d2s2y
#nevent1q…c3nq

2025-04-05 21:02:06

Hands Off protests appear large and widespread.
Won't solve everything tomorrow, of course. But it shows people who object that they're far from alone, and shows more hesitant people that by speaking up they won't be sticking their necks out, they'll be joining a popular movement.

2025-04-05 18:51:32

Crowd photos of the Hands Off protest in Champaign, IL.
Large crowd for a small city.
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2025-04-05 18:32:07

Some signs from the Hands Off protest in Champaign, IL
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2025-04-05 02:25:58

"Donald Trump has never been good at business. He’s good at image creation, and to the extent he made money, his business model is fraud."
Tariffs Expose Wall Street's M...

2025-04-04 16:11:11

Speaking of people who haughtily dismissed warnings that electing Trump in 2024 would be a really bad idea, believing themselves smarter and savvier than everyone else, who are now finding out the hard way...
Wall Street!
Tariffs Expose Wall Street's M...

2025-04-04 14:02:18

I think the Director of the NSA and other top US national security positions should be filled by experienced patriotic professionals, rather than be decided by lunatic conspiracy theorist influencers.
Sorry to get so partisan, but that's how I feel.

2025-04-02 12:35:14

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz not only organized secret war deliberations on Signal (!) and accidentally included a journalist (!!), he also discussed “sensitive military positions and powerful weapons systems” on Gmail (!!!).
He, and this admin, are a foreign intel agency’s dream come true.
Trump advisor reportedly used ...

2025-04-02 11:34:19

In Wisconsin, Elon Musk lost, the people won.
The US is experiencing bad democratic backsliding, but it ain’t over yet. The fascists still need votes to consolidate power. They break laws to try to rig elections—as Musk did with illegal bribery and vote buying schemes—but they still need real votes.

2025-03-31 13:55:27

In 21st century warfare, keeping the timing and location of airstrikes secret is a lot more important for military success than the number of push-ups some troops can do.
I can't believe I have to say this. But America has a Secretary of Defense that apparently thinks otherwise, so I do.

2025-03-31 13:24:16

France’s institutions defended its democracy, upholding the law.
South Korea’s institutions defended its democracy, upholding the law.
Brazil’s institutions defended its democracy, upholding the law.
Only America’s decided a criminal must be allowed to break its laws and destroy its democracy.
Marine Le Pen barred from runn...

2025-03-28 12:38:00

Some self-proclaimed champions of campus speech have called out the Trump administration for disappearing students who express unfavored opinions.
But few have matched the volume and urgency they used for cancel culture anecdotes, let alone exceeded it as these much worse speech violations deserve.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:cak4klqoj3bqgk5rj6b4f5do/post/3lleyvg2til2a
#nevent1q…l5k2

2025-03-26 20:12:28

“Why aren’t more people giving me credit for curing cancer?,” demanded Sam Altman, who didn’t cure cancer.

2025-03-26 12:43:32

The big result of Russia-Ukraine “peace” talks is a return to something like the Black Sea truce they previously reached on their own that Russia subsequently broke and is now lying about and might not follow?
Not exactly an achievement. Always the same reason: Russia is after conquest, not peace.

2025-03-25 15:52:52

Like a lot of Trump malfeasance, the Signal leak is on Congress too.
This big screw up came from Senate-confirmed officials—the same ones lying to Congress about it—and Congress could launch investigations. But Republicans value protecting Trump's political standing more than US national security.

2025-03-25 15:01:25

The Trump admin's response to their very dumb, damaging Signal leak is basically their response to everything: Lie incessantly, invert reality, say it didn't happen while also blaming others for it happening—yes, at the same time—and keep doing so until something else breaks and public focus shifts.

2025-03-18 11:50:50

No NYT, a Trump-Putin meeting isn’t like the Yalta Conference.
Yalta 1945 was allies who fought for years against aggression planning for after Germany’s defeat.
This is the US—which didn’t fight in the war—trying to help Russian aggression, pretending Ukraine lost in the field and has no agency.
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2025-03-15 14:12:39

Net Assessment is basically the Pentagon’s internal think tank. Works on grand strategy, long-term planning—including re: technology—and understanding socio-political dynamics of war. Very valuable.
Closing it weakens America, but also removes some smart people, which is the Trump admin’s priority.
Hegseth 'disestablishing' Offi...

2025-03-14 19:38:39

1) Trump publicly declares that Chuck Schumer “used to be Jewish. He’s not Jewish anymore.”
2) Schumer argues that the best way to oppose Trump is to not oppose him, whips Senate votes accordingly.
3) Trump publicly praises Schumer for helping Republicans pass a spending bill.
What a sequence.

2025-03-14 15:46:49

Thankfully Chuck Schumer helped stop the stock market slide just as the business community and financial industry was showing signs of worry over US govt management of the economy.
Phew. For a moment there, it looked like influential stakeholders were losing confidence in the Trump administration.

2025-03-14 15:35:52

MAGA Republicans don't want this, you say?
Opposition to what they're trying to do is what they secretly hope for, right? They'd hate for Democrats to help pass their plans, because then they couldn't blame Democrats for their troubles, which they'd be able to do only if Dems opposed them?
Right?
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2025-03-14 14:26:20

Out of curiosity, how does a Senate caucus change leadership without the leader voluntarily stepping down? If, hypothetically, a party caucus were interested in pursuing it, is there an internal vote of no confidence option, or something like that?
Asking for an opposition.

2025-03-14 12:02:21

“They want a fight so we should preemptively concede” is the excuse weak people tell themselves to avoid taking a stand.
That was true with impeachment, with criminal charges, and now.
Yes, if you fight you may lose. But no, they don’t want a fight. They prefer getting what they want without one.

2025-03-11 01:54:12

Russian state media openly says what I and others warned about, which Trump/Vance/Musk and fans—along with Jeffrey Sachs, Noam Chomsky, and their end of the horseshoe—get badly wrong:
Russia is after conquest, not peace. US weakening Ukraine encourages more Russian attacks, not Russian negotiations.
RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:f7utvjkqbgwfjonqtpfcf5fu/post/3lk2wjkodis2r
#nevent1q…9kue

2025-03-09 13:32:31

US military ending joint exercises with NATO, as America’s leaders denounce Europe.
Russia’s top foreign policy goal has long been to undermine, ideally break up NATO, which is apparently a US goal now as well.
Similarly, America’s stated goal is now regime change in Ukraine, the same as Russia’s.
US ‘to cease all future milita...

2025-03-09 13:26:31

Now that the influential bigot who did a Hitler salute publicly claimed that organic protests against his malfeasance are secretly controlled by a list of foreign Jews, some of whom aren’t even alive today, are we allowed to call him a Nazi, or is there something even Nazier we have to wait for?

2025-03-05 17:52:02

A Supreme Court Justice who rules that President Biden can’t forgive student loan debt without an act of Congress, and rules that President Trump and Not An Official Position Musk can cancel any Congressionally-enacted spending they personally dislike, that Justice clearly isn’t ruling based on law.

2025-02-24 14:56:39

As awful and stupid as Trump Term II is, and despite my expectations it'd be very bad and very dumb, some things are still so stupidly bad that my brain rejects them.
"No way," I involuntarily think. "That's just too dumb, even for this." But it's real.
This post is about Dan Bongino. (This time.)

2025-02-22 15:19:22

The new Trump administration, starting from the very top, is operating under the dangerous misconception that threats and use of force usually work with ease.
Trump cheered Russia’s attack on Ukraine as “savvy” and “genius,” and seems genuinely surprised and disturbed that Ukraine hasn’t bowed down.

2025-02-20 18:04:50

Calling a leader abdicating after months of protests following his efforts to end free speech and free assembly "a coup" is absurd. And pretending that Ukrainians couldn't have wanted rights on their own, they had to be tricked into it, is ridiculous.
And I still don't see the Cuban Missile Crisis.

2025-02-20 17:49:26

How? I don't see it.
Nothing like US missiles moved into Turkey or Soviet missiles moved into Cuba, nothing like the US naval blockade nor nuclear brinkmanship. The Cuban Missile Crisis resolved without war; Russia has been attacking Ukraine for 3 years leading to about one million casualties.

2025-02-20 17:38:59

It's Ukraine's fault Russia attacked them is the same as it's Canada's fault America is threatening them is the same as it's the woman's fault her boss sexually harassed her, albeit at different degrees.

2025-02-20 00:56:39

Democracy does not mean that a bare majority—or in 2025 America’s case, a plurality—can break any law they feel like and no one else has any rights.
There are dozens of democracies in the world, and none operate that way. It wouldn’t make sense, and no one actually thinks of democracy like that.

2025-02-18 15:03:32

The US switching sides in the world, from pro-democracy and rule of law to anti-both — most immediately seen in helping Europe against Russia to helping Russia against Europe — is the biggest, most profound change to the international system since the USSR collapsed.
Immense implications, long tail.

2025-02-18 02:44:29

Alright, I’m resolving the debate. All of these are simultaneously true:
1) Dems are the minority in Congress, greatly limiting their institutional power
2) Congressional Dems can and should be doing more
3) Some Dems are actually doing opposition, drawing public attention, etc
4) Not enough are

2025-02-15 20:12:44

One thing plaguing American media is a sizable portion of editors at prestigious outlets think a bad piece with a bad argument that gets a lot of criticism is a good thing.
It’s getting attention!
It shows the publication isn’t biased!
Publishing bad work that’s poorly received makes them proud.
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2025-02-08 15:23:09

To understand the faction leading America, recognize they think the worst, most terrifying things to happen in recent years are:
1) George Floyd protests
2) Public health treating COVID as real
3) HR saying "we've received complaints about your, um, 'jokes'"
4) Press 1 for English
5) Pronouns in bio

2025-01-02 15:28:29

NYT Jan. 1 headline updated on Jan. 2 to include the word "falsely" before Trump's false suggestion.
Subhead presents it as he said - he said, between Trump and "officials."
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2025-01-01 14:55:53

John Roberts is very upset that the public has lost confidence in John Roberts and the institution John Roberts leads following a series of confidence-cratering actions by John Roberts and his colleagues, and therefore would like everyone to know that this is not John Roberts' fault, it's yours.