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2024-11-06 22:07:46

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#note1gqv…fl26

2024-11-06 22:07:34

Donald Trump: A Threat to the U.S. Economy?
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Donald Trump won the election on November 5, 2024; his proposed economic policies could lead to severe economic challenges; Trump plans to extend the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act, reduce corporate tax from 21% to 15%, and eliminate taxes on Social Security; Congressional Budget Office warned of unsustainable public debt, projecting a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% by 2034; Trump's tax cuts could add $7.75 trillion to national debt, raising debt-to-GDP ratio to 143% by 2035; Trump's tariffs include a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10-20% on others, potentially raising costs for households by $2,600 annually; his immigration policy could disrupt industries reliant on undocumented workers; concerns about bond vigilantes and dollar crisis loom if policies are enacted.
#Trump #Economy #Debt #TaxCuts #Tariffs #Immigration #PublicFinance #Cbo #Inflation #Trade
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/donald-trump-a-threat-to-the-u-s-economy/

2024-11-06 22:07:34

2024-10-28 19:50:51

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#note1yjd…2u47

2024-10-28 19:50:40

There’s Nothing Simple About the Macroeconomics of AI
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MIT economist Daron Acemoglu forecasts a 0.7% boost to US total factor productivity and 1.1% GDP growth over the next decades; Goldman Sachs predicts a 7% global GDP increase and 1.5% annual US productivity growth over 10 years; Acemoglu estimates AI will automate 5% of work tasks, while Goldman projects 25%; Lawrence Summers critiques Acemoglu's analysis for not considering rapid scientific progress; AI is seen as a powerful general-purpose technology that could revolutionize human welfare, potentially extending lifespan and improving mental health treatment.
#Ai #Economics #Productivity #Growth #Technology #DaronAcemoglu #GoldmanSachs #LawrenceSummers #Innovation #Welfare
https://www.aei.org/economics/theres-nothing-simple-about-the-macroeconomics-of-ai/

2024-10-21 20:50:18

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#note100g…hcmc

2024-10-21 20:50:06

Gathering Clouds over the Chinese Economy
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China's economy faces significant troubles, including a bursting credit and housing market bubble, with falling housing prices and loan defaults from major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden; local government finances are strained due to reduced land sales; the GDP deflator has declined for five consecutive quarters; China's population is rapidly declining due to the one-child policy, exacerbating economic challenges; an estimated 65 to 90 million dwellings are unoccupied; President Xi Jinping's policies, including a zero-tolerance Covid approach and a rollback of Deng Xiaoping's reforms, have diminished foreign confidence and investment; rising protectionism in the US and Europe threatens China's manufacturing exports; the Biden Administration has maintained Trump-era tariffs, and Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, risking a recession in China; these factors suggest a potential Japanese-style lost decade for China, impacting global economic growth but potentially lowering inflation through reduced commodity prices.
#ChineseEconomy #HousingBubble #XiJinping #Protectionism #GlobalEconomy #Inflation #CreditMarket #ForeignInvestment #Gdp #PopulationDecline
https://www.aei.org/economics/gathering-clouds-over-the-chinese-economy/

2024-10-21 20:09:18

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#note1cg6…uwnc

2024-10-21 20:09:07

The American Productivity Advantage
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Warren Buffet's saying 'Never bet against America' highlights the US economy's strong labor productivity growth, which is up nearly 3% over the past year, 50% higher than the postwar average; Goldman Sachs forecasts a productivity growth slowdown to 1.7% in the near term but predicts a rebound in the late 2020s due to AI; Daron Acemoglu expresses caution about AI's impact; Key factors for US productivity include high capital investment at 17% of GDP, a high churn rate of companies fostering innovation, and a strong tech sector supported by a favorable regulatory environment; The US leads in global private-sector AI investment and DARPA is funding numerous AI projects; The article emphasizes America's formidable position as an innovation engine.
#Productivity #Ai #Economy #Innovation #CapitalInvestment #ResearchAndDevelopment #Technology #WarrenBuffet #DaronAcemoglu #GoldmanSachs
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-american-productivity-advantage/

2024-10-18 21:40:52

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#note1rct…wmwq

2024-10-18 21:40:41

CBO Confirms Again Immigration’s Economic and Fiscal Benefits
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CBO analysis from July 2024 shows immigration boosts US economy; post-2020 surge expected to add 8.7 million people by 2026; total US population projected to be 10 million higher by 2034; 820,000 new arrivals annually under legal provisions; half of surge cohort authorized to work; $0.8 trillion increase in federal tax receipts from 2025 to 2034; net GDP boost of $8.9 trillion over 10 years; initial wage pressure expected to reverse within a decade; fiscal effects on state/local governments less favorable; immigration seen as key to addressing US fiscal challenges.
#Cbo #Immigration #Economy #FiscalPolicy #Us #Workforce #Gdp #Taxes #SocialBenefits #Covid19
https://www.aei.org/economics/cbo-confirms-again-immigrations-economic-and-fiscal-benefits/

2024-10-16 21:08:44

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#note1tdk…lzrn

2024-10-16 21:08:33

Trump Proposes Bringing Back the Deduction for Auto Loan Interest
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Donald Trump proposed restoring the auto loan interest deduction during a speech at the Detroit Economic Club on October 16, 2024; He claims it would stimulate domestic auto production and make car ownership more affordable; The deduction was previously in effect before the Tax Reform Act of 1986; Critics argue it could lead to revenue loss for the federal government, with estimates of $76 billion to $175 billion in reduced revenue from 2025 to 2034; The proposal may disproportionately benefit certain taxpayers and distort the market for consumer debt; The article suggests broader tax reform may be more beneficial.
#Trump #TaxReform #AutoLoans #Economy #Policy #Deduction #FederalRevenue #Detroit #2024Election
https://www.aei.org/economics/trump-proposes-bringing-back-the-deduction-for-auto-loan-interest/

2024-10-08 14:05:41

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#note16mf…tkfg

2024-10-08 14:05:29

The Longshoremen Are Making the Wrong Demands
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The International Longshoremen’s Association ended a three-day strike on October 3, 2024, after securing a wage increase for 47,000 dockworkers; union president Harold Daggett demands a ban on automation, which is deemed unrealistic; automation has previously led to significant job losses in manufacturing, with 5.8 million jobs lost from the late 1990s to early 2000s, 90% due to automation; the article argues for adaptation to automation rather than blocking it, suggesting a revamped Trade Adjustment Assistance program to support affected workers; the author emphasizes that automation will enhance efficiency and competitiveness in U.S. ports, potentially expanding the workforce instead of shrinking it.
#Longshoremen #Automation #LaborUnions #Wages #TradeAdjustmentAssistance #UsWorkforce #EconomicPolicy #JobLoss #Adaptation #Efficiency
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-longshoremen-are-making-the-wrong-demands/

2024-10-02 16:27:40

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#note1udz…5s6y

2024-10-02 16:27:29

Long-term Care Benefits in Medicare Advantage Plans: Reform Needed
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Five years ago, analysts hoped Medicare Advantage (MA) plans would provide federally financed long-term care (LTC) benefits; however, MA plans have low penetration and offer small, poorly coordinated LTC benefits. Non-health benefits like groceries and transportation may be crowding out LTC benefits. Medicare covers some LTC benefits, including up to 100 days of skilled nursing care after a hospital stay and limited home health services. Over half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in 5600 MA plans from 184 organizations. In 2019, CMS expanded MA benefits to include in-home support services, but only 15% of plans offered these in 2024, down 34% from 2023. The author argues for including LTC benefits in MA plans and eliminating non-health benefits to focus on essential health coverage amid growing federal deficits.
#Medicare #LongtermCare #HealthcarePolicy #Retirement #FederalBudget #MedicareAdvantage #HealthBenefits #SocialInsurance #PublicPolicy #Economy
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/long-term-care-benefits-in-medicare-advantage-plans-reform-needed/

2024-09-25 19:49:47

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#note1rhn…p792

2024-09-25 19:49:36

Did Crypto Shift Trump on Trade?
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Donald Trump’s trade policies may become less stable in a second term; historically, Trump has viewed trade deficits as detrimental to American wealth; he has previously called for a weak dollar to combat deficits; in September 2024, Trump threatened tariffs against countries not using the dollar and endorsed cryptocurrency linked to a stable dollar; Trump has criticized the strong dollar earlier this year; he has shifted from skepticism to acceptance of cryptocurrency since spring 2024; Trump's association with World Liberty Financial, which offers stablecoins pegged to the dollar, raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest; a strong dollar complicates efforts to reduce the trade deficit, which has been a key Trump goal; this shift could indicate a chaotic second term.
#DonaldTrump #TradePolicy #Cryptocurrency #UsEconomy #ForeignPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #2024Election #TradeDeficit #WorldLibertyFinancial #Stablecoins
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/did-crypto-shift-trump-on-trade/

2024-09-24 18:58:35

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#note1zyz…hn84

2024-09-24 18:58:23

2025 Winter Honors Program
==========
AEI's 2025 Winter Honors Program will take place January 16-18, 2025, in San Diego; it builds on 2024 winter seminars and the Summer Honors Program; features seminars led by AEI scholars Matthew Continetti, Brent Orrell, Stan Veuger, and David French; theme is 'America in 2025 and Beyond'; participants receive a $150 stipend and induction into AEI's Collegiate Network; applications due November 25, 2024; class size approximately 15 students per seminar; online sessions follow in early February.
#WinterHonorsProgram #Aei #Seminars #Undergraduate #Scholarship #Policy #Education #Networking #Application #2025
https://www.aei.org/academic-programs/whp/

2024-09-23 16:03:36

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#note10jk…qgrl

2024-09-23 16:03:25

Illegal Immigrants Aren’t the Same as Home Invaders
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James Pethokoukis argues against the analogy of illegal immigrants as home invaders, stating that a country is a public entity while a home is private; immigrants seek better lives and contribute economically, unlike home invaders; immigration law is complex, unlike simple trespassing laws; the analogy is often used in bad faith by immigration restrictionists; compares illegal immigration to people sneaking into an amusement park, contributing positively; cites Penn Wharton analysis indicating immigration has broadly positive effects on the U.S. economy, helping to keep America young and reducing retirement burdens; recommends further reading on immigration arguments.
#Immigration #Economy #PublicPolicy #Analogy #IllegalImmigrants #HomeInvasion #EconomicContribution #PennWharton #CatoInstitute #JamesPethokoukis
https://www.aei.org/economics/illegal-immigrants-arent-the-same-as-home-invaders/

2024-09-16 19:48:54

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#note1dlt…j2m4

2024-09-16 19:48:42

Green Shoots of a 21st Century Productivity Boom
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James Pethokoukis discusses the potential for a new productivity boom akin to the Atomic and Space Ages; highlights a 2.5% increase in nonfarm business sector labor productivity for Q2 2024, up from 2.3% estimate; year-over-year productivity rose 2.7%; productivity growth driven by post-pandemic efficiencies rather than AI; Edward Yardeni notes rising productivity challenges the 'hard-landing' narrative; unit labor cost inflation at lowest since 2013; entrepreneurship surged with 420,000 new business applications monthly, up from 300,000 pre-pandemic; higher productivity growth could support 'Roaring 2020s' scenario; Paul Krugman emphasizes long-term importance of productivity.
#Productivity #Economy #Ai #Entrepreneurship #Inflation #Growth #Technology #SpaceAge #AtomicAge #EdwardYardeni
https://www.aei.org/economics/green-shoots-of-a-21st-century-productivity-boom/

2024-09-10 21:36:00

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#note1uq4…jxrk

2024-09-10 21:35:49

Some Numbers to Keep in Mind as Watch the Harris-Trump Debate
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US Census Bureau reports median household income rose to $80,610 in 2023, a 4% increase from $77,540 in 2022; first income gain since 2019; CBO forecasts annual budget deficit rising from $1.9 trillion in 2024 to $2.9 trillion in 2034; public debt at 97% of GDP in 2023, projected to exceed 106.1% by 2027 and reach 122% by 2034; Trump’s policies could add $5.8 trillion to national debt, Harris’ $1.2 trillion; TCJA led to 20% increase in US investments; 75% of Americans in their 40s earn more than their parents; nonfarm productivity rose 2.5% in Q2 2024; AI expected to automate 25% of tasks, boosting productivity by 9%; Trump’s tariffs could reduce household incomes by $1,800 in 2025.
#Harris #Trump #Debate #Economy #Income #Debt #Productivity #Ai #Taxes #Trade
https://www.aei.org/economics/some-numbers-to-keep-in-mind-as-watch-the-harris-trump-debate/

2024-08-26 19:50:13

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#note1glg…al8k

2024-08-26 19:50:01

Thinking about the US Economy, China, and Trade
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James Pethokoukis argues that big trade tariffs reduce jobs and productivity; highlights insights from economist Glenn Hubbard on the risks of overreacting to the China trade shock; warns against protectionism in trade and technology; emphasizes the importance of embracing disruption for economic growth; critiques the notion of complete domestic production; suggests that technological disruption is often blamed on trade; discusses the need for a focused agenda to prepare Americans for success rather than protectionism; acknowledges the necessity of treating trade with China differently due to its state interventions; calls for new trade groups based on shared principles.
#UsEconomy #China #Trade #Protectionism #GlennHubbard #DonaldTrump #EconomicGrowth #Technology #NationalSecurity #WorldTradeOrganization
https://www.aei.org/economics/thinking-about-the-us-economy-china-and-trade/

2024-08-23 17:59:56

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#note1tuk…x44v

2024-08-23 17:59:45

Harris’s Call for Price Controls on Groceries Is More Pandering than Policy
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Vice President Kamala Harris called for a federal ban on 'price gouging' on groceries in a speech on August 22, 2024; Steven B. Kamin critiques this proposal, highlighting that grocery stores have low profit margins of 2 percent or less, making them unsuitable for price controls; Kamin argues that the proposal reflects a lack of serious discussion on economic issues with American voters.
#KamalaHarris #PriceControls #Groceries #Economics #PolicyAnalysis #Inflation #PriceGouging #UsEconomy #StevenBKamin #Pandering
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/harriss-call-for-price-controls-on-groceries-is-more-pandering-than-policy/

2024-08-16 18:12:16

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#note1fag…45gr

2024-08-16 18:12:05

Some Late-Summer Thoughts on the Emerging Kamala Harris Economic Agenda
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The Kamala Harris campaign is focusing on the 'cost of living' theme, proposing policies such as a ban on price gouging for groceries, national rent control, a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers, and expanding the child tax credit. However, the campaign is missing an opportunity to embrace the notion of 'abundance' and lacks a proper understanding of the role of markets, the private sector, and government. The author suggests supply-side policies for housing and expanding clean energy sources like nuclear and geothermal. Both Harris and Donald Trump should discuss policies to make America independent from scarcity. The article provides links to other related articles by the same author.
#KamalaHarris #EconomicAgenda #Inflation #CostOfLiving #PriceGouging #RentControl #ChildTaxCredit #Housing #CleanEnergy #Abundance #Markets #Government #SupplysidePolicies #NuclearEnergy #GeothermalEnergy #DonaldTrump
https://www.aei.org/economics/some-late-summer-thoughts-on-the-emerging-kamala-harris-economic-agenda/

2024-08-13 10:45:54

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#note127j…3kxq

2024-08-13 10:45:43

Glenn Hubbard: A Pro-Growth Policy Agenda
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Glenn Hubbard discusses the benefits of embracing economic growth and innovation, and how it can improve the economy for everyone. He emphasizes the need to overcome the fear of change and the zero-sum game mentality. Hubbard is a nonresident senior fellow at AEI, former dean of Columbia Business School, and director of the Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business.
#FederalReserve #InfrastructurePolicy #PoliticalEconomyPodcast #Populism #Progress #Protectionism #UsEconomy
https://www.aei.org/podcast/glenn-hubbard-a-pro-growth-policy-agenda/

2024-08-13 10:05:02

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#note127j…3kxq

2024-08-13 10:05:02

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#note127j…3kxq

2024-08-13 10:04:51

2024-08-02 21:05:01

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#note1kjx…al5v

2024-08-02 21:04:49

Democrats’ Automatic Stimulus Proposals Undermine the Administration’s “Strongest Economy” Claims
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The US unemployment rate increased to 4.3 percent in July, suggesting a possible recession; Democratic bills propose automatic stimulus benefits triggered by current unemployment conditions; The Sahm rule, which signals the start of a recession, reached 0.53 in July, surpassing the 0.50 threshold; Sahm herself doubts that the US is in a recession; Liberal proposals advocate for automatic stimulus checks, enhanced infrastructure spending, and food stamp benefit increases when the Sahm rule threshold is reached; Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills automating federal funding for tuition-free education based on the Sahm rule; The political left aims to automate expensive benefits that were previously enacted through temporary stimulus laws; The contradiction between Democrats' claims of having the strongest economy and their proposals for immediate federal stimulus benefits raises questions about the state of the US economy.
#DemocraticParty #JoeBiden #KamalaHarris #Recession #Unemployment #UsEconomy
https://www.aei.org/center-on-opportunity-and-social-mobility/democrats-automatic-stimulus-proposals-undermine-the-administrations-strongest-economy-claims/

2024-07-16 19:59:08

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#note1csl…5hu4

2024-07-16 19:58:57

China’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble
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China's GDP growth has slowed to 4.75% from 7-8% in the 2010s, indicating deep trouble. The unbalanced economic model, relying on investment, exports, and cheap labor, is the root cause. Investment accounts for 50% of GDP, leading to manufacturing excess capacity. The housing and credit market bubble is also a concern, with housing constituting around 20% of the economy and private sector credit increasing by around 100% of GDP since 2008. China's weak demographics, local government finances, and trade relations with the US further impact its growth prospects. The Chinese government faces challenges in dealing with the bursting of the housing and credit market bubble. The IMF has urged structural reforms to increase household consumption, but there are few signs of progress. China's economic troubles have global implications as it is the world's second-largest economy and a major consumer of international commodities.
#China #Economy #Gdp #Investment #Exports #HousingMarket #CreditMarket #Demographics #TradeRelations
https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trouble/

2024-07-05 19:04:41

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#note1k5e…mttc

2024-07-05 19:04:30

The Fed Is Blind to Economic Risks
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History will not judge Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve kindly. Inflation surged to June 2022’s multi-decade high of 9.1 percent. The Fed has stuck to a backward-looking monetary policy of high interest rates despite major economic risks. The Fed is downplaying the likelihood of a US regional bank crisis, causing mark-to-market losses on the banking system's bond and loan portfolios. The Fed is also blind to the risk of a significant deterioration in the external economic environment, including trouble in major countries and the risk of a widening of the Israel-Hamas war. The Chinese economy is slowing, Japan's fiscal day of reckoning is approaching, and France's political crisis is drawing attention to unsustainable public finances. Deglobalization is another risk that could disrupt international trade flows. If the Fed waits too long to cut interest rates, it will be too late to prevent a hard economic landing.
#FederalReserve #EconomicRisks #Inflation #InterestRates #BankingSystem #RegionalBankCrisis #CommercialPropertySector #ExternalEconomicEnvironment #China #Japan #France #Italy #Deglobalization
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-fed-is-blind-to-economic-risks/

2024-07-03 19:11:45

A Lesson on Tariffs and Free Lunches From the American Revolution
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The article discusses the history of tariffs in the American Revolution and draws parallels to current debates on tariffs. It mentions Donald Trump's proposal to replace federal income taxes with high tariffs on imports and economists' concerns about the economic consequences. The article highlights the Stamp Act of 1765, a direct tax imposed by the British Parliament on printed materials in the colonies, which led to colonial resistance. The British then replaced the Stamp Act with indirect customs duties, or tariffs, through the Townshend Acts of 1767. The colonists saw these tariffs as another attempt to raise revenue without their consent and exert control over the colonies. The article emphasizes that tariffs are not paid by foreigners but can be shared by foreign sellers lowering prices or importers raising prices. It concludes by stating that protectionism does not come without economic costs. The author of the article is James Pethokoukis.
#Tariffs #AmericanRevolution #StampAct #TownshendActs #Taxes #ColonialResistance #Protectionism
https://www.aei.org/economics/a-lesson-on-tariffs-and-free-lunches-from-the-american-revolution/

2024-06-26 10:13:16

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#note15d6…lpyr

2024-06-26 10:13:05

Challenging China’s Electric Vehicle Export Surge: US and Europe Diverge
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China has emerged as the leader in electric vehicle (EV) production and sales, with overcapacity and a surplus of 20 million vehicles aimed at international markets. The US has raised security concerns about Chinese EV imports and directed the Commerce Department to investigate the security implications of Chinese EV electronic systems. The European Commission has launched an anti-subsidy investigation into the Chinese EV industry and placed provisional duties on Case EV imports. European leaders are divided on how to respond, with some advocating for investment in European companies to boost competitiveness. Chinese EV companies are pursuing a foreign investment strategy and may face pushback if the US blocks Chinese EVs manufactured or assembled in other countries. The clash between Chinese and European carmakers is uncertain, with the history of the solar manufacturing industry as a potential model. Time will tell how the US and Europe navigate the challenge of China's EV dominance.
#China #ElectricVehicles #Evs #Us #Europe #Trade #Security #Investigation #Antisubsidy #Competition
https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/challenging-chinas-electric-vehicle-export-surge-us-and-europe-diverge/

2024-06-24 21:02:44

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#note1g3v…9nlm

2024-06-24 21:02:33

Economic History—but Not Yet Financial Markets—Sounds an Alarm on American Debt Levels
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects annual budget deficits approaching $2 trillion in the coming years. By 2034, the CBO projects the national debt will exceed $50 trillion, or 122 percent of GDP. Historical examples show that unsustainable borrowing and spending can lead to economic instability and loss of global influence. J.H. Cullum Clark, an expert on the historical relationship between debt and geopolitical power, warns that even dominant nations can fall victim to debt-induced crises. However, history also suggests that there will be warning signs before the United States loses control of its finances. A recent research note from Capital Economics explains how in the early 1990s, the US experienced a significant increase in bond yields, which put pressure on the government's fiscal policy. If the US elections result in leaders who are happy to continue the current fiscal path, the bond market could remind them sharply that they still need to address the debt issue.
#Debt #BudgetDeficits #GeopoliticalPower #BondYields #FiscalPolicy
https://www.aei.org/economics/economic-history-but-not-yet-financial-markets-sounds-an-alarm-on-american-debt-levels/

2024-06-18 18:23:03

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#note10h9…nwzf

2024-06-18 18:22:52

Markets for the People
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The article discusses the debate between markets and industrial policy in the context of 'Bidenomics'. It highlights the failures of Bidenomics' industrial policy interventions and argues that conservatives should champion a new type of economics that prioritizes opportunity for the people. The article traces the rise and fall of liberalism and neoliberalism, emphasizing the importance of competition and the role of government in sustaining an environment for free markets to flourish. It suggests that neoliberals should update their theories to address the challenges of the contemporary economy, including investing in education and skill training. The article also critiques the lack of intellectual foundation in mercantilist industrial policy and highlights the problems of capital allocation and rent-seeking. It proposes that policy interventions should be more general and specific, focusing on counteracting market failures and customizing aid to address local needs. The article concludes by advocating for a new market economics that prioritizes opportunity and leaves no Americans behind.
#Bidenomics #Markets #IndustrialPolicy #Conservatives #Neoliberalism #Competition #Opportunity #CapitalAllocation #Rentseeking #Education #SkillTraining
https://www.aei.org/articles/markets-for-the-people/

2024-06-18 17:38:52

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#note14vl…vawa

2024-06-18 17:38:40

European Debt Is on a Dangerous Path. It’s Not Just France.
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French president Emmanuel Macron's call for a snap legislative election raises risks of a French debt crisis. Italy also finds itself on an unsustainable public debt path. The European Central Bank is no longer buying member countries' bonds on a massive scale. Italy's public debt to GDP ratio is well above its level during the 2010 euro zone debt crisis. Rating agencies express concerns about France's debt trajectory, noting that its public debt to GDP ratio could reach almost 115% by 2027. The world economic recovery is cast into doubt as the euro zone economy stutters.
#EuropeanDebtCrisis #France #Italy #EmmanuelMacron #EuropeanCentralBank
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/european-debt-is-on-a-dangerous-path-its-not-just-france/

2024-06-18 17:04:30

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#note14vl…vawa

2024-06-18 17:04:19

2024-06-04 11:17:31

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#note1qde…jwwq

2024-06-04 11:17:20

The Dominant Dollar: My Long-Read Q&A with Steven Kamin
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The US dollar is the dominant global currency, supported by the size of the US economy, deep and liquid financial markets, the safety of US dollar treasuries, and the country's rule of law and investor protections. The inertia of international currency markets also contributes to the dollar's dominance. While there are competitors like the euro and the Chinese renminbi, they have not been able to dislodge the dollar. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are too speculative, stable coins are often backed by dollar assets, and China's e-CNY lacks the trust and safety of the US dollar. The dominance of the dollar provides some benefits to the United States, such as seigniorage revenues, lower interest rates on US treasuries, and a current account deficit that allows the US to import more than it exports. However, the overvalued dollar can disadvantage US manufacturing. Devaluing the dollar could be achieved through lower interest rates, foreign exchange intervention, or tariff policies, but these approaches have limitations and potential negative consequences. The biggest threat to the dollar's dominance would be poor fiscal policies, excessive debt, inflation, and erosion of the rule of law in the United States. Dollarization, replacing a national currency with the US dollar, has been considered in countries like Argentina as a way to stabilize their economies.
#UsDollar #GlobalCurrency #Economy #FinancialMarkets #Treasuries #Inertia #Competitors #Cryptocurrencies #StableCoins #Ecny #Benefits #Devaluation #Manufacturing #FiscalPolicies #Dollarization
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-dominant-dollar-my-long-read-qa-with-steven-kamin/

2024-05-30 18:41:44

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#note1d3q…tk6j

2024-05-30 18:41:33

Building a High Tech Workforce for the Future
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A bidding war has broken out among tech giants for scarce generative AI talent. The US economy faces a talent shortage as AI becomes critical business infrastructure. Generative AI (GAI) has drawn massive investment and hopes are high that it will boost the economy. Pay for top AI talent regularly reaches seven figures. Layoffs in the high-tech sector continue, with almost 90,000 jobs lost since the beginning of the year. Tech workforce trends reflect the broader AI-infused workforce future. Access to AI tools is democratizing skills and lowering barriers to entry. AI is penetrating various fields, requiring sector-specific AI competencies and reskilling of incumbent workers. Educators, students, and workers need accurate information to make better decisions about education and training. The US needs AI experts who can execute big plays and advances that build productivity and shared prosperity.
#Ai #GenerativeAi #TechTalent #Workforce #AiinfusedWorkforce #Education #Training
https://www.aei.org/workforce-development/building-a-high-tech-workforce-for-the-future/

2024-05-30 18:06:44

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#note1d3q…tk6j

2024-05-30 18:06:33

2024-05-29 14:29:22

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#note10gp…6yly

2024-05-29 14:29:11

The Commercial Real Estate Crisis Hiding In Plain Sight
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Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr warns of a potential wave of commercial real estate loan defaults that could overwhelm the federal deposit insurance safety net. The banking system should be prepared to absorb loan losses and continue providing credit to households and businesses. The data suggests that the commercial real estate loan concentrations and banks' diminished capital loss-absorbing capacity have primed the system for a crisis similar to the 1980s Savings and Loan Crisis.
#CommercialRealEstate #BankingSystem #LoanDefaults #FederalReserve #BankFailures
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-commercial-real-estate-crisis-hiding-in-plain-sight/

2024-05-28 02:25:02

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#note1qj0…yqr4

2024-05-28 02:24:51

The NIH-EcoHealth Alliance Cover-Up
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The House of Representatives Select Committee on the Coronavirus Pandemic held a hearing with David Morens, former Senior Advisor to the Director of NIAID, who was placed on paid leave due to revelations associated with the committee's investigation; The committee has been investigating issues surrounding COVID-19 origins, revealing a cover-up and efforts to quash scientific discussions of a possible research-related incident in Wuhan; The non-profit EcoHealth Alliance and its president Peter Daszak have been accused of conducting research in Wuhan that may have led to the accidental escape of the virus; HHS has debarred EHA from receiving further federal funds for research, and Peter Daszak has also been debarred; Morens' offenses include violating federal records retention laws, seeking to evade FOIA requests, violating NIH scientific integrity policies, lying to Congress, and rank misogyny; Morens' testimony before the committee was evasive and contradictory; The cover-up raises questions about motivations, including the protection of EHA and the promotion of the Proximal Origins conspiracy; Anthony Fauci is scheduled to testify before the House Select Committee on June 3, 2024; The situation reflects a failure of scientific management, oversight, and integrity; The House Select Committee's work is important for uncovering the origins of COVID-19 and should continue into the next Congress.
#Nih #EcohealthAlliance #Covid19 #Coverup #Wuhan #Hhs #PeterDaszak #DavidMorens #AnthonyFauci #HouseSelectCommittee
https://www.aei.org/articles/the-nih-ecohealth-alliance-cover-up/

2024-05-24 15:56:40

Our Ticking Public Debt Time Bomb
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The article discusses the unsustainable path of the US public finances and the potential consequences. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that under present policies, the budget deficit will remain at around 6.5 percent of GDP, taking the public debt level to almost 130 percent of GDP by 2033. The limited economic growth prospects make it unlikely that the US will be able to grow its way out of the debt burden. While a US debt crisis is not imminent, excessive money printing can lead to dollar weakness and inflation. Other countries with higher debt levels, such as Italy and Japan, have not faced a debt crisis yet. The vulnerability of the US banking system and the likelihood of a regional bank crisis could compound the budget deficit problem. A recession caused by a banking crisis would reduce inflation and usher in a period of low interest rates, but it would also worsen the budget deficit problem. The article is written by Desmond Lachman and was published on May 24, 2024.
#PublicDebt #BudgetDeficit #EconomicGrowth #Inflation #BankingSystem #Recession
https://www.aei.org/economics/our-ticking-public-debt-time-bomb/

2024-05-21 21:23:47

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#note1x8y…5fs5

2024-05-21 21:23:35

Let’s Make a (New) Deal: Could Cashing Out of Medicaid and Medicare Coverage Lower Health Care Costs and Improve Its Quality?
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In two recent policy reform papers, David Hyman and Charles Silver propose moving health care subsidies from defined benefits to defined contributions as a way to improve the cost and quality of Medicaid and Medicare. They argue that this would provide more predictable budgeting, reduce fraud, incentivize more efficient use of health care resources, and overcome political hurdles. At an AEI forum, David Hyman will discuss the questions behind starting such a transformation. Peter Nelson and Andy Schneider will offer critiques and comments from different perspectives.
#Medicaid #Medicare #HealthCareCosts #HealthCareQuality
https://www.aei.org/events/lets-make-a-new-deal-could-cashing-out-of-medicaid-and-medicare-coverage-lower-health-care-costs-and-improve-its-quality/

2024-05-20 19:15:40

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#note1dhf…jcry

2024-05-20 19:15:28

The High (And Self-Defeating) Cost of Playing Politics with the Federal Reserve
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The article discusses the potential economic and political consequences of playing politics with the Federal Reserve. It mentions that the Trump campaign might accuse the Fed of making interest rate decisions based on political motivations rather than economic ones. There are reports that Trump allies are planning to blunt Fed independence if he becomes president again. The article also highlights a new NBER working paper that examines the impact of political pressure on the Fed. The paper finds that political pressure shocks increase inflation and have weak negative effects on economic activity. The findings support the benefits of central bank independence. Overall, the article argues that playing politics with the Federal Reserve is self-defeating. The author is James Pethokoukis and the article was published on May 20, 2024.
#FederalReserve #Politics #Economics #InterestRates #Inflation
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-high-and-self-defeating-cost-of-playing-politics-with-the-federal-reserve/

2024-05-17 19:19:43

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#note1pg7…mwrt

2024-05-17 19:19:32

Lessons for an Unserious Superpower: The "Scoop" Jackson Legacy and US Foreign Policy
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Americans are less interested in, and seemingly less capable of, strategic thinking today than they were before the Cold War ended. AEI’s Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Jackson Society’s Alan Mendoza, and Elliott Abrams of the Council on Foreign Relations will discuss Lessons for an Unserious Superpower: The "Scoop" Jackson Legacy and US Foreign Policy, Dr. Eberstadt’s new study on US foreign policy since the Cold War through the lens of Sen. Henry Jackson’s (D-WA) human rights–based approach.
#UsForeignPolicy #ColdWar #ScoopJackson #AmericanEnterpriseInstitute
https://www.aei.org/events/lessons-for-an-unserious-superpower-the-scoop-jackson-legacy-and-us-foreign-policy/

2024-05-14 19:16:50

The Biden 301 Tariffs
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The Biden administration is conducting a tariff review on China, repeating the actions of the Trump administration. However, trade policy towards China is largely for show. In 2017, the Trump administration applied broad tariffs on Chinese goods without considering whether Chinese producers benefited from predatory policies. The point of these tariffs is unclear, as overall American goods imports increased from $2.36 trillion in 2017 to $3.27 trillion in 2022. In 2023, US goods imports fell, mostly due to a decrease in imports from China. However, other factors, such as Beijing lifting zero-Covid restrictions, also contributed to the import drop. Direct goods imports from China have underperformed compared to the rest of the world since 2018, but indirect imports have risen as companies diversify their supply chains. Chinese-made goods are often shipped through third countries or labeled as de minimis shipments to avoid tariffs. The Biden administration's new tariffs only cover $18 billion in imports and are largely preemptive, targeting products affected by China's industrial policy and anticompetitive practices. The administration has not addressed transshipment, de minimis shipments, or Chinese-owned factories in third countries. Former Trump administration officials have proposed high duties for Chinese vehicles made in Mexico and an overall tariff of 10 percent, but these measures are ineffective. To address Chinese abuse, tariff-rate quotas and harsh sanctions for violations could be implemented. These steps would be more than theater.
#Tariffs #China #TradePolicy #BidenAdministration
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/the-biden-301-tariffs/

2024-05-14 14:54:52

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#note1h43…x5xv

2024-05-14 14:54:41

'Growth' Review: A Bigger Economy Spelled Victory
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The article discusses the book 'Growth: A History and a Reckoning' by Daniel Susskind, which examines the concept of economic growth and its significance. The author explores the growth of GDP as a political objective and a measure of economic success since World War II. Susskind argues that economic expansion has been a central focus, but questions whether it is overrated. He presents policy proposals that aim to find a balance between the degrowth movement and capitalism. The article highlights Susskind's assertion that long-term stagnation has been the norm throughout human history, with improvements in prosperity being temporary due to population growth. The author suggests that progressives may be more receptive to the idea of economic expansion than followers of Milton Friedman. The article is written by Edward L. Glaeser and was published in The Wall Street Journal on May 14, 2024.
#EconomicGrowth #Gdp #PolicyProposals #DegrowthMovement #Capitalism #Progressives #MiltonFriedman
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/growth-review-a-bigger-economy-spelled-victory/

2024-05-01 14:08:03

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#note1f0d…yzfd

2024-05-01 14:07:52

Japan’s Cautionary Economic Tale
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Japan's economy is in recession, public finances are unsustainable, and the currency is at record lows. The decline of the yen has increased import costs and inflation. Japan's high public debt limits the Bank of Japan's ability to support the currency and deal with inflation. The country's aging population and declining birth rate worsen its economic challenges. The US, although with lower public debt than Japan, is dependent on foreign financing and vulnerable to a funding crisis. Congress should take measures to reduce the budget deficit and put public debt on a sustainable path. However, there is a lack of serious constituency in Congress for responsible budget policy.
#Japan #Economy #PublicFinances #Currency #Recession #Inflation #PublicDebt #BudgetDeficit #Congress
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/japans-cautionary-economic-tale/

2024-04-29 20:58:23

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#note1h6k…adx3

2024-04-29 20:58:12

AI, Regulation, and Economic Thinking
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Scott Weiner, a California state senator, is known for pushing legislation to streamline housing construction. However, he is now behind a bill called SB 1047, which aims to regulate AI models. The bill requires developers to self-certify their models or submit to a nine-step regulatory regime. The economics of this bill seem less helpful than Weiner's housing agenda. There are concerns about policymakers having an imperfect understanding of complex systems, unintended consequences driving AI companies out of California, and significant opportunity costs. The Department of Homeland Security has also established an Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security Board. While the board consists of supersmart people, there is a risk of regulatory capture and industry concerns overshadowing the greater good. The article also mentions other topics such as rising income inequality, US wealth inequality, and the confusion about the supposed gap between pay and productivity.
#Ai #Regulation #Economics #HousingConstruction #California #AiModels #Legislation
https://www.aei.org/economics/ai-regulation-and-economic-thinking/

2024-04-09 17:02:17

The Federal Reserve Must Choose Its Poison
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The Federal Reserve's ultra-easy monetary policy has created both an inflation and a financial stability problem. The Fed now faces the dilemma of choosing between keeping interest rates high to meet its inflation target but risking financial stability, or cutting interest rates to stabilize the financial system but jeopardizing its inflation goal. The Fed's loose monetary policy in response to the 2020 recession led to high inflation and a commercial real estate bubble. Although inflation has been brought down to around three percent, the Fed recognizes that it is too early to declare victory and expects to keep interest rates high until at least the second half of the year. The commercial property sector is experiencing a slow-motion train wreck, with office vacancy rates increasing and property developers facing the challenge of rolling over $930 billion in maturing debt at higher interest rates. This could lead to a wave of commercial property defaults and potentially trigger a regional bank crisis. The Fed's monetary policy mistakes have resulted in a heavy economic price, forcing it to choose between price stability and financial stability.
#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #FinancialStability #InterestRates #CommercialProperty
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-federal-reserve-must-choose-its-poison/

2024-04-09 16:28:37

2024-04-05 19:21:39

What’s Wrong with the US Economy? Anything?
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Economists were expecting 200,000 net new jobs added in March. Instead it was [unknown number]. Employment data for some time now is consistent with what we refer to as a 3-2 condition — when unemployment rate stays in the 3% range, below 4%, and inflation is in the 2% range. In the short term, high inflation is still an issue. Three consecutive quarters of [unknown condition] are great news, but it’s still too early to assume we are experiencing a sustained upturn. CBO projects the national debt will nearly double to $48.3 trillion by 2034, and the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 116 percent, up from 97 percent currently. Growing deficits will compound interest payments, surpassing defense spending and reaching $1.6 trillion by 2034. James Pethokoukis suggests investing more in science research, [unknown policy], and adopting a go-slow approach on AI regulation. The CBO doesn’t expect a big productivity boom.
https://www.aei.org/economics/whats-wrong-with-the-us-economy-anything/

2024-04-01 16:42:07

The Other COVID Crisis: Prospects for Recovery from Pandemic Policies
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This article discusses the prospects for recovery from pandemic policies and focuses on conditions in employment and unemployment. It addresses the concerning trend of adults who are not in the labor market at all. The article is the F.A. Hayek Memorial Lecture given at the 2023 Austrian Economics Research Conference. The author is Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy. The article was published in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics on April 01, 2024. The author has also written other articles on related topics such as Korean unification, the working class in America, and post-pandemic recovery for America's prime age labor force. The American Enterprise Institute is the source of the article.
https://www.aei.org/research-products/journal-publication/the-other-covid-crisis-prospects-for-recovery-from-pandemic-policies/

2024-03-15 05:11:51

A Choice-of-Law Alternative to Federal Preemption of State Privacy Law
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Preempting state law has been a staple of the debate about privacy regulation in the United States. A federal statute requiring states to recognize contractual choice-of-law provisions would allow businesses to avoid a regulatory patchwork while fostering a dual competition: among states over their privacy statutes and among businesses over their privacy practices. Such competition would help discern consumers’ true interests in privacy versus other goods, and it could spur states to specialize in privacy. The precise contours of a federal limitation on states’ treatment of contractual choice-of-law provisions must be determined, but sample language can be drawn from existing legislation. A prominent theme in debates about US national privacy legislation is whether federal law should preempt state law. A federal statute could create one standard for markets that are obviously national in scope. Another approach is to allow states to be “laboratories of democracy” that adopt different laws so they can discover the best ones. The authors propose a federal statute requiring states to recognize contractual choice-of-law provisions, so companies and consumers can choose what state privacy law to adopt. Privacy would continue to be regulated at the state level. However, the federal government would provide for jurisdictional competition among states, such that companies operating nationally could comply with the privacy laws of any one state. This approach would foster a double competition aimed at discerning and delivering on consumers’ true privacy interests: market competition to deliver privacy policies that consumers prefer and competition among states to develop the best privacy laws. Unlike a single federal privacy law, this approach would provide 50 competing privacy regimes for national firms. The choice-of-law approach can trigger competition and innovation in privacy practices while preserving a role for meaningful state privacy regulation.
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/a-choice-of-law-alternative-to-federal-preemption-of-state-privacy-law/

2024-03-14 15:52:44

On the Road to a Lost Chinese Economic Decade
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The Chinese property and credit market bubble has burst, and the country is on its way to a Japanese-style lost economic decade. Chinese policymakers believe their country's economy can continue to grow at five percent a year, but this is an illusion. President Xi's efforts to centralize economic power and suppress economic debate will delay much-needed reforms and increase the chances of China exporting deflation. The Chinese government allowed dangerous economic imbalances to occur, with savings and investment reaching unsustainably high levels of around 42 percent of the size of the economy. China allowed a property and credit market bubble to form, with the Chinese property market accounting for close to 30 percent of the economy. President Xi's zero-Covid policy and regulatory clampdown on the high-tech sector have added to the country's economic woes. Major Chinese property developers have defaulted on their debts, house prices are falling, and strains are appearing in the shadow banking system. The specter of deflation is haunting the Chinese economy, making it difficult to grow out of its debt mountain. China appears to be on the road to a lost economic decade, which will have major implications for the world economy. The Federal Reserve should be more forward-looking in its policy setting to avoid a hard US economic landing.
#ChineseEconomy #EconomicImbalances #PropertyMarketBubble #CreditMarketBubble #EconomicOutlook #Inflation #Deflation #FederalReserve
https://www.aei.org/economics/on-the-road-to-a-lost-chinese-economic-decade/

2024-03-11 18:48:06

What Soft Landing?
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The economic outlook in the United States is uncertain, with different indicators telling different stories. Inflation may get stuck at a level inconsistent with the US Federal Reserve's target, reducing the number of interest-rate cuts this year. The US economy has slowed, but not to the extent that was feared. Job gains have decreased, and consumer-price inflation has cooled. However, the labor market is still hot, GDP growth is adding to inflationary pressure, and monthly inflation is higher than in previous months. There are concerns that this trend could accelerate, leading to a level of inflation inconsistent with the Fed's target. Growth expectations for 2024 were improving, but there are signs that the economy may be cooling or heading towards a recession. Factors such as a dim outlook for business investment, concerns about consumer spending, and a loss of consumer confidence contribute to this uncertainty. A soft landing, with inflation at the Fed's target and sustainable employment and GDP growth, is less likely than the economy reaccelerating or mildly contracting. However, a soft landing is not impossible if high interest rates can lower job vacancies without destroying jobs. The Fed must assess the direction of the economy and make decisions accordingly. Investors in the bond market expect the first rate cut to occur in June, but if the economy remains strong, rate cuts may not be necessary.
#UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #JobGains #Consumer-priceInflation #LaborMarket #GdpGrowth #Recession #BusinessInvestment #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerConfidence #Fed'sTarget #BondMarket
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/what-soft-landing/

2024-03-04 11:55:11

Why AI Struggles with Basic Math (and How That's Changing)
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Large Language Models (LLMs) have remarkable capabilities in language generation, translation, and reasoning, but struggle with basic math problems due to their bias towards linguistic intelligence and limited training data. However, improvements in models and prompting strategies are addressing these limitations. GPT-4 achieved the 89th percentile on the SAT, while Google's PaLM 2 surpassed GPT-4 in math assessments. Specialized math models like AlphaGeometry and ChatGPT with Wolfram GPT have achieved expert-level problem-solving and improved accuracy. The trajectory of LLMs is upward, with potential to revolutionize fields including education, science, technology, and public policy.
#Ai #Mathematics #LanguageModels #Education #Technology
https://www.aei.org/technology-and-innovation/why-ai-struggles-with-basic-math-and-how-thats-changing/

2024-02-23 17:18:41

More (Discouraging) Lessons in Industrial Policy, American Style
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The article discusses how federal regulations since the 1970s have slowed US productivity growth, with economists suggesting that without these regulations, annual growth could've been more like five percent instead of just over three percent. The article also highlights the concept of 'anti-growth safetyism' in America's regulatory approach, which has stifled innovation in sectors like nuclear power and supersonic transport. The article then examines the expansion efforts of semiconductor contract manufacturer TSMC in Japan and the United States, noting that labor relations, local partnerships, and government subsidies have contributed to different outcomes in the two regions. In Japan, TSMC has benefited from investments and cooperation from major Japanese companies, while in the US, TSMC has faced labor disputes and slow government subsidy disbursements. The article also mentions the delays caused by environmental reviews required for federal funding and the regulatory problems faced by semiconductor firms, including environmental rules, export controls, and local permit and zoning laws. The author concludes that TSMC's experience in America should temper US policymaker enthusiasm for industrial policy, as spending taxpayer money is only part of the equation and progress can be hindered by the political economy.
#IndustrialPolicy #Regulations #ProductivityGrowth #Innovation #Tsmc #LaborRelations #GovernmentSubsidies #EnvironmentalReviews #SemiconductorFirms
https://www.aei.org/economics/more-discouraging-lessons-in-industrial-policy-american-style/

2024-02-22 20:36:16

The World’s Drowning in Debt — Brace Yourself for Economic Turbulence
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The article discusses the global debt crisis and warns of potential economic turbulence. It highlights the overindebtedness of major economies, including the United States, China, Europe, and Japan. The United States is running a budget deficit of around 6% of GDP, which is projected to continue. Commercial-property debt in the US is also a concern, with almost $1.5 trillion in debt maturing in the next two years. China has experienced significant debt growth in its nonfinancial private sector, and its property and credit market bubble has burst. Europe's debt problem is concentrated in the eurozone's south, particularly Italy and Spain. Japan has a public-debt level exceeding 250% of GDP. The article warns that without measures to make debt more sustainable, the world could face a global economic crisis. Economic policymakers should take action to mitigate the risks, or else economic turbulence and financial-market strains could occur.
#DebtCrisis #EconomicTurbulence #BudgetDeficit #Commercial-propertyDebt #GlobalRecession #Financial-marketStrains
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-worlds-drowning-in-debt-brace-yourself-for-economic-turbulence/

2024-02-14 22:20:20

Letter: You Are Right to Worry About the Economy
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America is on an unsustainable fiscal path with rising federal debt and increased government spending. Tax revenues remain above their 50-year average, but spending has grown to a historically high level. Retirees have pitted Democrats against Republicans to avoid benefit cuts, and policy makers are unlikely to raise middle-class taxes. Without accelerating productivity growth, this is reckless driving. Americans are rightly alarmed.
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/letter-you-are-right-to-worry-about-the-economy/

2024-02-14 21:44:29

Why Biden’s Border Policies Haven’t Been Working
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Biden's border policies aim to reduce pressure on the border, prevent dangerous journeys, and deter illegal crossings, but the immigration system lacks the capacity to handle the current crisis. The system is overwhelmed, with long waiting times for parole programs and asylum cases. The current immigration system is not designed to handle the current migration patterns, with more migrants coming from South America and traveling with children. To address the challenges, the system needs to be right-sized, with more immigration judges and border patrol officers, permanent processing centers, and innovative technologies. An under-resourced border increases dangers for migrants and allows cartels to exploit the situation. Investing in the immigration system now will help manage the current crisis and prepare for future waves of immigration.
#BorderPolicies #ImmigrationSystem #Migration #Asylum #Capacity #ImmigrationJudges #BorderPatrolOfficers #ProcessingCenters #InnovativeTechnologies #Cartels
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/why-bidens-border-policies-havent-been-working/

2024-02-12 21:44:14

Millennials Are Doing Better than You Probably Think
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According to a study by Kevin Corinth and Jeff Larrimore, incomes rose across the board for each generation in aggregate, but the rate of growth slowed down for Gen X and Millennials. Silent Generation’s incomes grew 34 percent vs. Greatest Baby Boomers +27 percent over Silent Gen X + 16 percent over Boomers Millennials +18 percent over Gen X. The slowdown was more pronounced for market income than when including government taxes and transfers. Millennials in their late 30s were still 14 percent better off than Gen Xers at the same age. The slowdown in income growth for Gen X and Millennials is attributed to stagnating work hours and flattening female labor supply around 2000. The perception of worsening outcomes for Millennials may stem from fallacies about parents and college. Higher household incomes of Millennials relative to Generation X, through their 20s, is a result of dependence on their parents rather than a rise in their own market incomes. By age 31, less than 10 percent of Millennials are still dependent on their parents and by then their own market incomes exceed that of previous generations. The rising cost of college offsets only a small portion of the income gains achieved by Millennials, especially when accounting for the growing generosity of financial aid.
#IncomeGrowth #EconomicMobility #Millennials
https://www.aei.org/economics/millennials-are-doing-better-than-you-probably-think/

2024-01-25 21:07:35

Why a U.S. Recession in 2024 Could Still Happen
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The article discusses the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2024, despite the current consensus view that it will be avoided. The author highlights the past failures of economists to accurately predict economic events, such as the 2020 recession and the surge in inflation in 2022. The article points out major geopolitical and economic risks, including the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas War, and the Red Sea passageway being held hostage by the Houthis. It also mentions concerns about the commercial real estate market, with high-interest rates and falling property prices potentially leading to a regional bank crisis. The article concludes by suggesting that economists should provide alternative economic scenarios rather than point forecasts due to the high degree of uncertainty.
#U.s.Recession #Economists #GeopoliticalRisks #EconomicRisks #CommercialRealEstateMarket #AlternativeEconomicScenarios
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/why-a-u-s-recession-in-2024-could-still-happen/

2024-01-12 21:32:38

Get Ready for AI-Driven Skill Democratization
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This article discusses the potential impact of AI-driven automation on the job market and the democratization of skills. The authors argue that AI could unlock job opportunities for lower-skilled workers, raise the 'labor share' of the economy, and reduce the value of currently rare but narrow, more easily automatable skills. They provide examples of how GPS technology has automated the work of London cab drivers and how AI could revolutionize medical diagnosis. The authors suggest that task automation driven by AI advances can enhance job prospects, increase labor income, and potentially reduce inequality. However, there are concerns about the impact on highly skilled workers, such as physicians, who may face competition from lower-skilled but AI-enabled competitors. The article concludes that predicting the impact of AI on skills and jobs is highly speculative and that neither the best-case nor worst-case scenarios are likely to be realized.
#Ai #Automation #JobMarket #Skills #LaborIncome #Inequality
https://www.aei.org/articles/get-ready-for-ai-driven-skill-democratization/