Fundamentals

https://fountain.fm/show/EUdSfx8792GOAPMKXJwM

Co-Host of Rock-Paper-Bitcoin podcast

Study math, be sovereign

Bit by bit, Block by block, We're gonna change the world without firing a shot.

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Last Notes

2024-08-31 10:53:11

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I prefer the entertainment I grew up but this is pretty funny.

2024-07-28 12:18:13

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Listen to the RHR episode. Better to watch video so you can see the body language.
Opsec isn’t funny - so don’t hire a comedian to roast you if you don’t want that happening.
Marty got easily 100x more brutal insults and he took it like a champ.

2024-07-28 11:43:11

My biggest takeaways from the Bitcoin Conference
1. Matt Odell can’t take a joke (from a comedian he hired to be on his own show) and it’s actually worrisome to me how bad he is at it. An exercise in humility is warranted given how many people rely on his leadership
2. The next 4 years are going to be the craziest in my 50 years of life and I’m not prepared.
3. Privacy will continue go be reduced to a niche movement.
4, Ross Ulbricht should not be in prison but he became a virtue signal at the conference. Nobody seems to be putting pressure to discuss Samourai when they broke no laws and is a far more meaningful and consequential situation to Bitcoin.
5. There are young guys in the space who inspire the hell out of me and it’s good to know that there are people who will fight the good fight.
6. Bitcoin is great and doesn’t GAF about the circus. It’s the constant.

2024-07-10 10:26:08

It’s good to test your worldview once in a while with normies that you respect.
It’s good to have a normie or two that we respect in the world.
The echo chamber around Bitcoin can be limiting and powerful. You can make it stronger by stress-testing it in the wild every so often.

2024-07-08 12:21:39

FASBs fair value rule that goes into effect on 12/31 of this year will cause the biggest rugging and devaluation of the financial system since 2007/2008 and will likely make the GFC look benign.
Why is this?
Because there is no requirement for any company to prove that they can move the coins in their treasury.
Therefore if Coimbase loses coins - and doesn’t tell anybody (which they won’t) then Bitcoin will continue to accumulate and appreciate until they can no longer keep the Ponzi alive. By that time one can only imagine what the write-down will be across the balance sheets of every company in the US. It could be many trillions by the time it’s caught.
There is a simple solution. FASB can require that a company proves it can move its keys in order to declare the value on its balance sheet.
At a minimum, they get a signed statement from their custodian “certifying” that the coins can be moved - or they can be compelled to provide a digital signature.
Adding this requirement will not only remove the risk of a trillion dollar write-down of a central custodian- but it will cause massive innovation in the custody space for institutions. It would incentivize the roads to be built and would also incentivize more companies to hold Bitcoin in their treasury.
TLDR - there’s no requirement for any company to prove that can move the Bitcoin in their treasury - in order to claim the USD value on their balance sheet - this opens the door to trillions of $$ of write downs if we discover this after hyperbitcoinization.

2024-07-01 00:00:15

I have been drinking Otis' coffee for nearly 6 months.
Most coffee stinks. Tha's just a fact. Otis' coffee is actually good. I've hunted for the best coffees in the world for years.
I would vouch for the quality with every unit of my reputational capital. He also packs well, has sent as much as 20 bags to me, is always prompt. and is an all around good pleb.
Paying in Bitcoin is a really big plus. I cancelled my Blue Bottle subscription after starting my relationship with Otis.
If you're a coffee person - you should get in touch with Otis about his coffee.
#note1qmt…yq9j

2024-06-28 11:53:00

Throughout my career as an actuary, my crusade has primarily been about the definition of “real money”
My colleagues unanimously think that “real money” is what the regulatory capital models allow them to say they have in their holding companies.
I have argued for years that P/L and cash are real money and that their paper mark-to-model results are bullshit.
Let’s not even get into the fact that cash in dollars isn’t real money - but that’s there as well.
Bottom line - insurance companies and pensions are standing on absolute shams of actuarial opinion. They are backed by assumptions and when they are lucky enough to realize them - they are exposed to the perpetual bleed of fiat currency.

2024-01-31 11:33:11

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We go from 10M to 3M and the next golden age of building begins. Now 4 billion people know what only a few million learned from Gox.
I CANT WAIT!!!

2024-01-30 16:33:45

By the time the chickens come home to roost on Blackrock teaming up with Coinbase to launch the Bitcoin ETF -
A large % of the issuance will be involved in a ponzi that will require liquidation.
I say it happens in 2030 and XBTUSD tanks from 10m to 3m
Plan accordingly

2023-10-04 12:26:08

It’s apparent now that companies in the UK we’re borrowing off the bond gains in their pensions to fund their operations.
This was not the intention of LDI which stood for “Liability Driven Investments”. The purpose was to match the liabilities exposure to rates with assets. Long duration bonds did the trick.
That companies spent the gains on operations and not matched their liabilities with them is pure corruption and they deserved to be liquidated last September when their collateral impaired.
That these companies had to pilfer their pension plan to fund their operations speaks to the malinvestment of their existence to begin with. That they were 1) allowed to do so; and 2) bailed out when it broke speaks to how corrupt the UK is and how little they actually care about those pensioners.
The question we ask now as TSY yields make another climb is: who else was looting their pensions and who is about to get caught?

2023-09-14 14:11:11

https://fountain.fm/episode/jbuPPbl1Ld8WY4WsQ0jE
Shane Gillis, Star Trek, Phish (of course), Oliver Anthony, and the fairest and most rigorous pleb breakdown of Swan’s situation you will hear anywhere

2023-09-11 17:15:25

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My adversarial brain is wary that this will be a case for more KYC on mining pools

2023-09-08 21:12:49

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Swan will do good in the world again but they won’t recover the standing they had.

2023-09-08 20:02:43

Swan’s relationship with PrimeTrust as the lead sponsor of Pacific Bitcoin 2022 was far deeper and more meaningful than the Strikes, Folds, Coinbits, etc of the world.
They only saw dollar signs with them and never saw this coming. Now their customers freedom money is in the benevolent hands of Ripple of all places.
Swan will never recover the influential position they had - ever. Sometimes fessing up to your mistakes is just about seeing them and not making them worse.
It’s gonna be super weird at that conference this year.

2023-08-28 10:44:35

There will exist a Bitcoin University.
My admission standard would be to show ownership of 10% of the prior epoch block reward as held Bitcoin. Sign the UTXOs and you’re in.
No academic pursuit can ever exist unless the student is in total control of his time.

2023-06-29 11:39:25

Being able to buy Bitcoin with Fiat is like orgasming with porno
https://fountain.fm/episode/bKjnVOv0N00MavnN9OQu

2023-05-17 18:43:06

https://risk-fundamentals.ghost.io/building-annuities-on-the-lightning-protocol/

2023-05-08 18:17:48

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Is this the consolation gift they gave to ppl who were turned away at Coventry?

2023-04-17 15:43:16

1/4 of all the coins on Bitcoin’s network are dedicated to backing a trustless payments system called the Lightning Network.
That is a staggering amount of Bitcoin that is solely directed for this purpose.
Bitcoin is becoming more and more scarce every block.

2023-04-11 11:35:40

Stack first!
Stack hard!
No mercy!

2023-04-07 10:59:22

I have a friend who fixes miners. I think of him like a veterinarian who restores life to the living. He literally creates hash, difficulty, and security with his hands.
Every expired miner that comes back to life and online makes the network more decentralized, makes it more costly to attack, and makes every SHA256 hash that much more focused, purposeful, and consequential.
It’s possible that when aliens consider our solar system - they see nothing but electrical output. It’s possible that every hash added to the network promotes the discovery of more and cheaper power, leading to a larger population that uses even more power.
It’s possible that the ultimate breakthrough in power and human flourishing will come when aliens who master space travel notice us enough to come here and teach us how to take power usage to the next level and support 50 billion people thriving on Earth.
It’s also possible that every day we don’t show that potential - we set ourselves up for predation by the same beings or ourselves.
Repair a miner or send a dead one to my friend. We have aliens to meet.

2023-04-03 10:40:58

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People who can’t cope with disappointment become a slave to avoiding them and they’re NGMI.
Time is scarce and life is too short to be that type of a pussy. Shoot your shot until they go in a lot.
Life is hard enough without this self inflicted handicap. Don’t just find a silver lining - bask in the fact that you survived to shoot again.
Make the world pay for not killing you!

2023-04-02 16:30:29

Discovering Bitcoin was like having a baby.
1. I rearranged my life to read and listen to podcasts for several hours a day
2. When I finally got it, I couldn’t take my eyes off it.
3. I reevaluated everything I thought I knew about life to account for it’s presence.
4. I learned how to care for it and how to make it thrive in my care.
5. I endured people telling me it has no value
6. It’s us against the world
7. I lost it in a horrific boating accident.

2023-03-27 11:04:37

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To rigorously apply your analogy - HIV is a fiat disease. There are no symptoms and a correlation was conjured to scare a lot of people into experimental medicine.
I would choose HIV and take my chances that my own fitness keeps me healthy.

2023-03-15 13:21:22

I’m having writers block.
What rhymes with fiat-cumlord?

2023-03-10 14:24:03

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We had a lively discussion on this last night at the Lancaster meetup.
Mileage varies. It’s early but it’s inevitable that some health insurance will be needed for Bitcoiners.

2023-03-07 23:01:30

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The point of the exercise is to show that locking in todays prices isn’t enough - we have to kill fiat to make everything cheaper.

2023-03-07 22:56:30

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I basically multiplied 50c x 3 x 365 x 50 years and got about 27k which I rounded down to 1 btc

2023-03-07 12:48:55

Guys - I ran some numbers. I’m a retirement expert in Fiat but how much bitcoin do we need to retire?
There’s no good answers so here’s an example:
If I want to eat 3 eggs/day for the rest of my life - I’d need 1 full bitcoin to protect the cost of 50c an egg.
I say this because I think it’s really important to support rancher movements like The Beef Initiative - it’s the only way to get the price of food down so it doesn’t cost a 50yr old a whole coin just to feed himself breakfast. #jawn