steve
Steve Carr, CFA

Money Manager | Wilderness Junkie | Seeking Clear Value

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npub10mvl2g6tu76q6k4hsmam6hrsvhu99guk4c0q9tlzu5789stvz7usy9alta

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nprofile1qqs8ak04yd970dqdt2mcd7aat3cxt7zj5wt2u8sz4l3w20rjc9kp0wgucd88m

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npub10mvl2g6tu76q6k4hsmam6hrsvhu99guk4c0q9tlzu5789stvz7usy9alta

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Last Notes

2024-10-12 13:56:22

Ep2: I speak with my good friend Greg Hahn, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Winthrop Capital Management.
Greg on #government mamagement of the #GFC: “We had to come to our own view of how the machine worked. Back then we assumed that the #bank #regulators were on top of it.”
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-generous-investor/id1765039441?i=1000672201156

2024-08-18 03:51:27

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It was a great interview, Daniel. Yours is a thoughtful, patient approach which will bear much fruit in time. Keep up the good work.

2024-06-03 14:13:44

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Agreed. I would add that the point at which I began taking myself less seriously and my work more seriously was freeing and meaningful.

2024-05-25 11:10:03

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Both Substack pieces are great; I haven’t read the paper yet.
Stablecoins seem like the best way to maintain the “Treasury Standard.” In time banks will have to join that party, especially if the market gets comfortable with something less than fully reserved stablecoins.
Banks would also argue that only they (as regulated entities) should be permitted to issue fractional stablecoins and if they succeed, there won’t be enough margin in fully reserved stablecoins for non-banks to compete.

2024-05-24 12:57:58

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There’s no crime in not understanding something. But by the time you reach middle age you should have a decent grasp of what you know and what you don’t. What a moron.

2024-05-13 00:50:25

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Large totalitarian regimes would overrun us. Believe me, I’m AnCap in my heart but our neighborhood suggests we need some stable entity to maintain our nuclear deterrence capabilities.

2024-04-27 13:57:30

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Gen X here. It’s not that I disagree, it’s just that I’ve found that I’m happier when I see people as individuals. Just my two sats. ✌🏻

2024-04-26 16:01:48

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Exactly. What’s the intrinsic value of the USD?

2024-04-21 12:57:24

“It is better to dwell in a corner in the open air than with wrongdoing in plastered rooms and in a shared house.”
#Proverbs 21:8

2024-04-19 21:03:24

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Wow. That shows you what I (don’t) know. Thank you for that. Seriously.

2024-04-19 13:34:38

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Agreed. Fiber & healthy starches in proportion are useful carbs. It’s the sugar carbs that kill.

2024-04-18 15:28:15

A downgrade to neutral is generous. The legacy international remittances business is the most vulnerable industry to a bearer asset with instantaneous settlement. WU would be better off ramping telegrams back up. #note134q…ee8z

2024-04-17 12:44:52

“Let a friend be with you on every occasion, and let brethren be useful in necessities, for they are begotten for this reason.”
#Proverbs 17:19

2024-04-16 13:49:01

“Arrogance goes before destruction and folly before a fall.”
#Proverbs 16:30

2024-04-15 14:46:07

“He who rejects instruction hates himself, but he who gives heed to reproofs loves his soul.”
#Proverbs 15:37

2024-04-14 11:55:13

@npub18wg…r2wn is chair of the economics department at Ole Miss. We can only hope that policy makers take Dr. Hendrickson’s words to heart. #note1985…dsl8

2024-04-14 11:51:19

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The most succinct and articulate global macro rationale for Bitcoin I’ve heard. Sharing on LinkedIn. Thank you.

2024-04-12 11:43:05

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Oops - 12:20

2024-04-12 11:42:06

“There are those who wound with a sword as they speak, But the tongues of the wise heal.” 12:31

2024-04-07 03:54:11

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mightier than the sword

2024-03-12 11:11:08

Bitcoin Atlantis sounds amazing. I’m not a developer but I really want to encourage all those working to preserve and strengthen Bitcoin: you’re actually restoring hope for millions (soon billions) of us. I just gave to @npub10pe…n34f for the first time. What can you do? #note16u3…reda

2024-03-05 12:34:28

Well played, @npub1tft…xar5, well played. https://image.nostr.build/a60153056598fe0687ab01863a0a202e06428edaf24f61c2383121e1b20e3525.jpg

2024-03-02 17:24:59

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On the week, that’s a net +30,056 BTC. At a very rough average price of $55,000 that’s $1.65B. If the average market cap for the week was $1.1T, the week’s inflows were ~0.15%. It’s not clear to me that we’ve started to see meaningful ETF inflows yet. I think the pump M-W was mainly supply: LT hodlers staying disciplined.

2024-02-29 00:43:05

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I could listen to @npub1d3f…r4xv for hours* on end. Never BS, always well-reasoned.
*OK, maybe just a lot of minutes, but I mean a LOT of minutes.

2024-02-29 00:36:11

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Lieutenant Danny!

2024-02-28 10:47:45

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Yeah, I screwed up and somehow didn’t reply to the thread but created a new note. Anyway it was your repost of Trey Walsh’s note. FWIW, I think Trey makes an important point about being consistent. My counter went to threat asymmetry: while Wall Street has NGU and ETF concentration as attack vectors, Warren and Trudeau have bank accounts and prisons.
We’re all on team orange. 👊🏻

2024-02-23 14:45:37

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He’s playing to his base and they don’t yet understand how the feds b*tch slap USD. It’s an icon of patriotism for them. So much education is still needed.

2024-02-19 13:46:55

@npub15m9…q643 That’s a great observation. I can only offer my perspective, so for what it’s worth: while coopting, centralizing, and corrupting by those who have outsized influence are forces worth fighting, the government’s explicit power to coerce is a much bigger threat. In my sense - and in only my sense - many progressives seem to want to use government power to satisfy their passions for justice, and believe that having a simple majority of a voting populace on their side somehow absolves them of the moral evil of coercion. However, I see coercion as the fundamentally dehumanizing social force.
Private charity is alive and well; I want to affirm my progressive friends’ senses of justice and work with them where I can to bring about better outcomes for people, but without resorting to control.

2024-02-18 14:25:55

There are two political choices:
1) the sovereign individual
2) might makes right
Individuals can choose to subject themselves to groups and moral codes.
The #uniparty chooses 2.

2024-02-16 19:42:05

https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-u-s-government-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-payments-than-defense-ee6fbeec

2024-02-14 19:27:53

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I feel a sense of financial peace because as @fossgregfoss says, I own CDS on the whole fiat system.

2024-02-07 15:43:41

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I always try to assume ignorance before concluding malice is at play. CL is a malicious rent-seeker who’s starting to see the writing on the wall.

2024-01-19 17:20:03

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The cumulative scale is on the righthand side whereas weekly remittances is left. 2011 looks to be the base year of the graph, so zero on the cumulative.

2024-01-17 11:39:35

I sent this to a friend I’ve been trying to orange pill since the lows following the FTX debacle. He was lamenting not buying when I told him about BTC at $17k in late November 2022.
“Don’t sweat missing $17k. There is a monetary (inflation) premium baked into the prices of gold, stocks, and real estate which is distinct from their intrinsic values. In time Bitcoin can capture that inflation premium. And that premium is apart from any value associated with its current and future utility as a medium of exchange.
Let’s say the inflation premium is ~$50T globally. For context, the global value of all debt is ~$400T. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $840B. That suggests 59x upside on the inflation premium alone, or $2.5M per BTC. I’m assuming that the timeframe to realize this price is 15-20 years, but the $2.5M is in today’s $US, not inflated future dollars.
Stocks and real estate won’t crash as a result, but their valuations will be constrained to the cash flows from their businesses & rents, respectively. Gold’s intrinsic value is consumer, industrial, and apocalyptic but it’s much more purely priced as an inflation hedge than either stocks or real estate.”

2024-01-14 05:16:05

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I obey the state’s laws because I risk losing things I value if I didn’t. In those cases when my moral obligations match with their laws, it’s purely coincidental.

2023-12-25 02:14:35

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Merry Christmas! This is beautiful - where is it?

2023-12-09 20:29:16

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What is the rude awakening? I’m trying to learn about coin joining.

2023-11-17 11:34:26

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At this point wearing a suit and tie for work feels like a public confession that you hope to only add value at the margin.

2023-11-14 23:42:36

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Dang. I had hopes for her.

2023-11-11 00:02:03

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As soon as I finish Broken Money I will be available to read the screen play of your early years. Seriously - have you thought about it?

2023-11-03 00:36:02

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Fox guarding chicken coop declares chickens safe

2023-10-29 19:55:08

My most frequent orange-pilling objections:
1) “blah, blah, blah, Warren Buffett…”
2) I can’t understand it
3) “blah, blah, blah SBF…”

2023-10-24 01:30:57

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The sense of unrelatedness between laws and morality has never been greater for me than it is now.

2023-10-17 15:21:51

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“Guys, if we all just agree to place our faith in these slips of green paper, everything will work again.”

2023-10-16 04:04:44

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Cynical opportunism, exploitation, treachery

2023-08-29 14:34:29

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Happy birthday, doc. Remember: being one day older only matters if you’re a banana.

2023-06-30 05:40:25

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“Now we can start a fire to roast the eggplant!”

2023-06-24 14:30:15

#dogma https://nostr.build/i/b1860fba51a29c5d256d0a1ff66fe92efd1ca420ab8e8c4f6ebb69d5f688476f.jpg

2023-06-19 15:07:12

Now this is a new federal holiday I can get behind wholeheartedly - more worthy than at least four other existing holidays, IMO.
You might prefer to add others, but in my view freedom is the essential quality which allows us to live fully as humans. I can’t think of any other single event in our nation’s history which is more purely emblematic of freedom than what enslaved Americans began to realize in Galveston 158 years ago today.
Redemptive of a truly evil practice, sorrow that it took so long to begin rectifying, and incomplete, sure, but also joy. #Juneteenth seems like something we call all celebrate. https://nostr.build/i/fb9ac5c02fc94d04ef035df0fc8c24cc077df32a28049f15992e7be535697949.jpg

2023-05-19 18:07:23

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Bitcoin is an exercise in freedom. Democracy is the slowest way we’ve invented to erode freedom.

2023-05-17 09:18:18

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What if you pay the $3,300 and at the end of the dinner pass them $3,400 invoices for Bitcoin security consulting services?

2023-05-16 10:49:50

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It won’t be a actual default. They’ll furlough certain non-essential federal workers who will eventually get paid their back wages. Then they’ll all agree to raise the ceiling again so each side can have something to brag about. Pure theater. See 2011.

2023-05-03 12:16:18

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Apple Pod listener, now a YouTube subscriber. Keep fighting the good fight!

2023-04-06 16:49:31

At this point in the #Inflation battle I'd like to be able to say that #ModernMonetaryTheory has lower odds of launching a successful comeback than the Hannah Montana franchise, but I'm preparing to be disappointed.

2023-04-04 19:29:45

https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_07af938343097b1ae978fe57e68666f4e6ac29db624935633d2d50e7338ae391.jpg

2023-04-01 09:19:23

Honest question: why must bitcoin be seen as either / or - as a money or an investment? Interest Rate Parity shows how even established fiats attract capital for short term investments, and Bitcoin offers long term structural potential of 2-3 orders of magnitude greater than fiat. For the foreseeable future it looks like both to me. What am I missing?

2023-03-25 18:38:39

$USD - the cutest kitten at the fiddle factory

2023-02-01 06:20:13

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Old guy Q: what is squat @?

2023-02-01 05:38:08

Goal: attend my first #BTC conference this year. Which do you recommend?