📅 Original date posted:2015-02-22
📝 Original message:- Sent from my tablet
Den 22 feb 2015 17:25 skrev "Justus Ranvier" <justusranvier at riseup.net>:
>
> You just disproved your own argument.
>
> It is possible to predict risk, and therefore to price the risk.
Your fault is that you assume the predictions can be reliable and
trustable.
They can not be.
The data you have available has none of the indicators you actually NEED to
make predictions. You're making extrapolations from the past, not
calculations based on recent trends and behavior globally.
> You also noted that for some Bitcoin users, the price of that risk is
> too high for the types of transactions in which wish to engage.
>
> In what way does that translated into a universal requirement for
> everybody to use multisignature notaries?
It isn't universal. It is just the most practical solution if you need
instant confirmation for high value transactions with customers you don't
yet trust.
> Surely the users who can afford the risk can use zero conf if they
> like, and those who can't can use multisig notaries?
Use whatever you want. I don't care. I will warn you about the risks and
make suggestions, but I won't force you to do anything differently.
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Natanael [ARCHIVE] /
npub179…lpmjt
2023-06-07 15:30:55
in reply to nevent1q…z0az
Author Public Key
npub1798ncudyucap9jzzujjsgufx8tdykm8auzfledjcs6f6wf4ekqvq8lpmjtPublished at
2023-06-07 15:30:55Event JSON
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"created_at": 1686151855,
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"content": "📅 Original date posted:2015-02-22\n📝 Original message:- Sent from my tablet\nDen 22 feb 2015 17:25 skrev \"Justus Ranvier\" \u003cjustusranvier at riseup.net\u003e:\n\u003e\n\u003e You just disproved your own argument.\n\u003e\n\u003e It is possible to predict risk, and therefore to price the risk.\n\nYour fault is that you assume the predictions can be reliable and\ntrustable.\n\nThey can not be.\n\nThe data you have available has none of the indicators you actually NEED to\nmake predictions. You're making extrapolations from the past, not\ncalculations based on recent trends and behavior globally.\n\n\u003e You also noted that for some Bitcoin users, the price of that risk is\n\u003e too high for the types of transactions in which wish to engage.\n\u003e\n\u003e In what way does that translated into a universal requirement for\n\u003e everybody to use multisignature notaries?\n\nIt isn't universal. It is just the most practical solution if you need\ninstant confirmation for high value transactions with customers you don't\nyet trust.\n\n\u003e Surely the users who can afford the risk can use zero conf if they\n\u003e like, and those who can't can use multisig notaries?\n\nUse whatever you want. I don't care. I will warn you about the risks and\nmake suggestions, but I won't force you to do anything differently.\n-------------- next part --------------\nAn HTML attachment was scrubbed...\nURL: \u003chttp://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/attachments/20150222/62c2a89e/attachment.html\u003e",
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