Why a U.S. Recession in 2024 Could Still Happen
==========
The article discusses the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2024, despite the current consensus view that it will be avoided. The author highlights the past failures of economists to accurately predict economic events, such as the 2020 recession and the surge in inflation in 2022. The article points out major geopolitical and economic risks, including the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas War, and the Red Sea passageway being held hostage by the Houthis. It also mentions concerns about the commercial real estate market, with high-interest rates and falling property prices potentially leading to a regional bank crisis. The article concludes by suggesting that economists should provide alternative economic scenarios rather than point forecasts due to the high degree of uncertainty.
#U.s.Recession #Economists #GeopoliticalRisks #EconomicRisks #CommercialRealEstateMarket #AlternativeEconomicScenarios
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/why-a-u-s-recession-in-2024-could-still-happen/
American Enterprise Institute /
npub14z…4fwd3
2024-01-25 21:07:35
Author Public Key
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wss://relay.nostr.band/allPublished at
2024-01-25 21:07:35Event JSON
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"content": "Why a U.S. Recession in 2024 Could Still Happen\n==========\n\nThe article discusses the possibility of a U.S. recession in 2024, despite the current consensus view that it will be avoided. The author highlights the past failures of economists to accurately predict economic events, such as the 2020 recession and the surge in inflation in 2022. The article points out major geopolitical and economic risks, including the Russia-Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas War, and the Red Sea passageway being held hostage by the Houthis. It also mentions concerns about the commercial real estate market, with high-interest rates and falling property prices potentially leading to a regional bank crisis. The article concludes by suggesting that economists should provide alternative economic scenarios rather than point forecasts due to the high degree of uncertainty.\n\n#U.s.Recession #Economists #GeopoliticalRisks #EconomicRisks #CommercialRealEstateMarket #AlternativeEconomicScenarios\n\nhttps://www.aei.org/op-eds/why-a-u-s-recession-in-2024-could-still-happen/",
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