The S&P 500 has rallied throughout most of the year, and that trend is likely to generally continue into the close of the year. However, the yield curve is deeply inverted and the VIX futures term structure is in a deep contango. These indicate that we're at the end of a business cycle.
In early 2024, the Fed will likely pivot. Once reverse repos (#RRPs) reach zero, the Fed will no longer be able to continue balance sheet roll-offs at the current pace. Futures charts are already showing early signs of pricing in Fed cuts. Indeed, the U.S. monetary base is already reaching the highest levels since the Fed began tightening.
Stagflation, which is already occurring in some countries, will likely begin in the U.S. in 2024. Commodity prices, including gold, will break out as soon as central banks resume monetary easing. The slow deflation and disinflation that we've seen throughout 2023 have merely formed the flag portion of a bull flag pattern for commodities on the higher timeframe. Eventually, higher commodity prices will push up #PPI and the underreported #CPI.
Bitcoin -- which is a digital commodity -- will likely rally along with other commodities. Bitcoin's #S2F and market cap will surpass that of gold in the coming years, as it continues its trajectory of becoming the new risk-free asset and the unit of account. By late 2024 and 2025, altcoins will begin to outperform Bitcoin as they typically do at that stage of the halving cycle.
Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. are beginning to break out. In prior business cycles, the Fed has usually begun cutting rates before jobless claims break out. This time around, the Fed has hiked us right into a breakout. Given the lagging effect of monetary policy, the Fed has positioned us well for higher unemployment rates in 2024 and beyond.
Severe stagflation is likely coming. During this period, geopolitical conflict becomes more likely. In turn, increasing geopolitical conflict can worsen stagflation as countries share less of their scarce resources by imposing export restrictions, and as countries allocate a higher amount of their GDP into destroying the means of production of other countries, making all countries worse off.
Not financial advice. Do not buy or sell any security because of this tweet.
