kravietz 🦇 on Nostr: One of #Poland think tank Klub Jagielloński authors Bartosz Mielniczek published a ...

One of #Poland think tank Klub Jagielloński authors Bartosz Mielniczek published a long thread on Twitter, responding to Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with EU Ursula von der Leyen on the EU and #Ukraine agricultural policy. Here’s Zelensky original post:

https://nitter.unixfox.eu/ZelenskyyUa/status/1704596331518439499

And here’s what Mielniczek wrote in Polish and in an annoying to read Twitter thread, which I have laboriously cleaned up for you. Note this is 100% Polish point of view and we are still missing arguments from other sides (UA and EU).

This is exactly what the Ukraine grain issue is about. It’s not about Ukraine grain itself simply being sold - there’s no problem with that. After the embargo by the coalition of five countries, the transit of Ukrainian grain increased by leaps and bounds. Ukraine has a clear goal: grain to go to Europe. Why?

Someone will say: when you don’t know what it’s about, it’s about money. This is true, but only partly. The European market is geographically close, stable and one of the largest in the world. In practice, however, it is not so much a question of money as of politics. Ukraine, like Poland in the 1990s, has adopted a radical turn to the west. This also applies to its agriculture. Cereal exports to the EU have been growing steadily since 2014, i.e. the entry into force of the DCFTA. As a result of the war, the above processes have been drastically accelerated for objective reasons. Before the war, no one was seriously thinking about accession; after 1.5 years, hardly anyone is.

However, if Ukraine is serious about joining the European Union (under what conditions is a subject for discussion - Marcin Kędzierski, among others, told us about these processes in Klub Jagielloński), there are, in my opinion, 3 main conditions to be met on its side. These are:

geostrategic stabilisation;
integration of Ukraine’s agricultural sector into the EU;
institutional reforms and the fight against corruption.

Exactly in that order. The issue of stabilisation does not need to be discussed. Why is agriculture so important for Ukraine? Well, because after Russia butchered their metal sector (Donbas) after 2014, it is agriculture that is the backbone of the Transnistrian economy. The production of agricultural raw materials accounts for almost half of their exports, several % of GDP, the largest enterprises in the country held by international capital and the local magnates - the numbers can be found everywhere, so I won’t enumerate.

Now why farming is now a strategic sector for #Ukraine:

So while it is possible to imagine Ukraine in the EU with its oligarchy, superficial reforms and at most selective elimination of corruption (especially in the format of second/third tier membership), without the integration of agroholdings there into the CAP - there is no option. More significantly, however, the potential of Ukraine’s food sector is… largely untapped. If some kind of peace formula is worked out and the situation stabilised, we are talking about the largest agricultural area in Europe (not including Russia) fertile black soil, corporations with economies of scale and the prospect of multi-billion dollar investments. While we are now talking about the UA as a leading producer, with favourable winds, a food sector that will be at the forefront of the world may emerge there.

This is what Ukraine is currently playing at. Metallurgy will not be rebuilt, and the question of the mythical “reconstruction” is not a foregone conclusion. And it is enough to push the food industry a little - specifically towards the EU. The more Ukrainian agriculture becomes established in Europe, the easier the accession talks will be for Ukraine. This is why, when Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski proposed subsidies for the transport of Ukrainian cereals to EU ports so that they could be sent on to the world, Ukraine was not interested. They do not want to sell cereals to the world, they want to do it specifically in the EU and open up the EU market as much as possible for themselves.

Note that Mielniczek presents a truly broad perspective: while Ukraine’s industrial sector has been entirely intentionally decimated by #Russia, its farming sector continued production and exports even during the most heated fighting in all regions. Ukrainian farmers literally harvested grain during artillery shelling!

I had to cut the long text into second part, which follows here: