I am a noob in such matters of course, but here are a couple of historical pointers:
- CS operation reminds of Bear Stern rescue, which started a rally of risk assets for a couple of months before collapse
- liquidity swaps between central banks were also a temporary measure invented during GFC, which became permanent. It’s not clear to me what’s exactly the consequence of what, but high volume of swaps was correlated with major market crisis (gfc and March 2020 had spikes in that activity)
I think gfc was structurally very different: today there is high inflation and low unemployment, during gfc inflation was 5%ish and unemployment skyrocketed to 10%, today we have 10% inflation and unemployment still close to 3 or 4 % (basically a minimum). Today there is A LOT more money in the system (10 years of QE and a covid packagr later..)
So I’m not sure the feeling can even be the same. At the time I was a grad student and had no idea about the world, so take whatever I say with caution! To me it was just curious house prices
th_s4m0ht / Thomas Rossi
npub1fg…hnjqf
2023-03-20 12:24:20
in reply to nevent1q…6fac
Author Public Key
npub1fgxtu7t68hkxxdqgyz0qz3vk5zf4m75cdzt6xm0q7lntfx5azrrshhnjqfPublished at
2023-03-20 12:24:20Event JSON
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"content": "I am a noob in such matters of course, but here are a couple of historical pointers:\n\n- CS operation reminds of Bear Stern rescue, which started a rally of risk assets for a couple of months before collapse \n- liquidity swaps between central banks were also a temporary measure invented during GFC, which became permanent. It’s not clear to me what’s exactly the consequence of what, but high volume of swaps was correlated with major market crisis (gfc and March 2020 had spikes in that activity)\n\nI think gfc was structurally very different: today there is high inflation and low unemployment, during gfc inflation was 5%ish and unemployment skyrocketed to 10%, today we have 10% inflation and unemployment still close to 3 or 4 % (basically a minimum). Today there is A LOT more money in the system (10 years of QE and a covid packagr later..)\n\nSo I’m not sure the feeling can even be the same. At the time I was a grad student and had no idea about the world, so take whatever I say with caution! To me it was just curious house prices",
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