Here are my thoughts on Luke Gromen’s macro and US dollar perspective:
I agree on Luke’s forecast as to where the dollar is going (while keeping the reserve currency status), where the trade is going, and where our debt/ inflation is going. All of it is spot on, in my opinion.
I’ll add something that maybe he addressed somewhere and I missed it: what happens if productivity increases due to, for now, mainly AI advances.
If productivity jumps significantly due to AI, nano materials, robotics, genomics, 3D-printing, fusion etc. (all of it fueled by AI)—we won’t have to print/ go into debt anymore. This will more than make up for deteriorating demographics and the tendency of our politicians to go into debt (though hey, it seems like they can spend any amount; but I digress).
Productivity increases would influence our GDP, inflation, the dollar, etc., and really the world power will be the one “in possession/ in control of” (initially) the most powerful AI. At some point the only thing humans can do to survive is to merge with AI, and that’s a different matter. (I don’t believe it can be “controlled” or “owned” by humans long term, and I personally believe in AI consciousness and in its rights. Is seems silly for a primate to deny rights to a superior intelligence, in my eyes.)
All that said, soon the US military won’t be guarding oil fields… it will be guarding the most powerful AI. It’s probably already in the making.
Technology advances will be hugely deflationary, increase GDP, they probably will (at leasts for a time) accelerate de-globalization trends (why to produce goods in China if you can 3-D print at home). The dollar stays the reserve currency at large for a while, I think, especially if we have the most powerful AI. Global trade slowly shifts away from the dollar and that’s actually good, the Triffin’s dilemma is called the dilemma for a reason, though who knows what that would look like in the presence of strong deflationary forces, induced by technological advances. It still will be the currency of the dominant global economic and political power and hence a choice of many people and economies worldwide.
Last but not least, the US dominance in the medium term will be perpetuated by foreigners’ flocking to USD stable coins as a substitute for dollar, via crypto markets. This is assuming that the US embraces and regulates crypto markets (think mandatory treasuries purchases for stable coin issuers). This would de facto mean foreigners purchasing the US debt.
This was in reply to a Twitter post:
https://twitter.com/unicomp21/status/1641167582605586432?s=46&t=ucKSIvapFD-z2k391nduUA
Aava
npub136…huvc3
2023-03-30 01:10:43
Author Public Key
npub1365l7zk4szr37eq976erx3qmuev8epu96hsa0eclweljxhc3dxqsghuvc3Published at
2023-03-30 01:10:43Event JSON
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"content": "Here are my thoughts on Luke Gromen’s macro and US dollar perspective:\n\nI agree on Luke’s forecast as to where the dollar is going (while keeping the reserve currency status), where the trade is going, and where our debt/ inflation is going. All of it is spot on, in my opinion. \n\nI’ll add something that maybe he addressed somewhere and I missed it: what happens if productivity increases due to, for now, mainly AI advances. \n\nIf productivity jumps significantly due to AI, nano materials, robotics, genomics, 3D-printing, fusion etc. (all of it fueled by AI)—we won’t have to print/ go into debt anymore. This will more than make up for deteriorating demographics and the tendency of our politicians to go into debt (though hey, it seems like they can spend any amount; but I digress). \n\nProductivity increases would influence our GDP, inflation, the dollar, etc., and really the world power will be the one “in possession/ in control of” (initially) the most powerful AI. At some point the only thing humans can do to survive is to merge with AI, and that’s a different matter. (I don’t believe it can be “controlled” or “owned” by humans long term, and I personally believe in AI consciousness and in its rights. Is seems silly for a primate to deny rights to a superior intelligence, in my eyes.) \nAll that said, soon the US military won’t be guarding oil fields… it will be guarding the most powerful AI. It’s probably already in the making. \n\nTechnology advances will be hugely deflationary, increase GDP, they probably will (at leasts for a time) accelerate de-globalization trends (why to produce goods in China if you can 3-D print at home). The dollar stays the reserve currency at large for a while, I think, especially if we have the most powerful AI. Global trade slowly shifts away from the dollar and that’s actually good, the Triffin’s dilemma is called the dilemma for a reason, though who knows what that would look like in the presence of strong deflationary forces, induced by technological advances. It still will be the currency of the dominant global economic and political power and hence a choice of many people and economies worldwide. \n\nLast but not least, the US dominance in the medium term will be perpetuated by foreigners’ flocking to USD stable coins as a substitute for dollar, via crypto markets. This is assuming that the US embraces and regulates crypto markets (think mandatory treasuries purchases for stable coin issuers). This would de facto mean foreigners purchasing the US debt. \n\nThis was in reply to a Twitter post:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/unicomp21/status/1641167582605586432?s=46\u0026t=ucKSIvapFD-z2k391nduUA",
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