https://onebig.life/powerlaw
I find bitcoin's adherence to the Power Law fascinating, and for me it has become my favoured price model. It is so beautifully simple, with only one input variable: time.
I built this Bitcoin Power Law web page because the other couple out there didn't allow me to do what I wanted:
- To choose a date (e.g. your retirement, or a major purchase goal), and to see where price might be. Not only the fair price, but perhaps more importantly, the floor price below which bitcoin should never go under again.
- To choose a price (e.g. $1m), and to see the probable date (when fair price reaches the price) and very high probable date (when bottom price reaches it).
- To remind me to stop making too emotionally fantastical price predictions whenever price takes off on one of its major spurts, or I read some ultra-bullish article.
And more importantly, just to be able to show the chart while talking to a noob, with price indisputably sloping from bottom left to top right. Message: it's not too high to buy ;)
Of course, models are not guarantees. They all have their flaws, and the obvious one in this case is the model does not take into account the 4 year halving cycle to refine its price predictions.
But I believe there is less likelihood of this stock-to-flow cycle repeating indefinitely (as the halving becomes a less and less significant part of the bitcoin stock), than of nature's Power Law continuing as we go through the global adoption curve.
Enjoy!
(no ads, trackers, spammers, or VPN blockers)
https://onebig.life/powerlaw
OneBigLife / One₿igLife
npub1dv…zypmm
2024-06-29 13:09:01
Author Public Key
npub1dvnf7m37lqws7edyk2n4ve5wczg75xyxl4f37w7q9452chxtts9q9zypmmPublished at
2024-06-29 13:09:01Event JSON
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"content": "https://onebig.life/powerlaw\n\nI find bitcoin's adherence to the Power Law fascinating, and for me it has become my favoured price model. It is so beautifully simple, with only one input variable: time.\n\nI built this Bitcoin Power Law web page because the other couple out there didn't allow me to do what I wanted:\n\n- To choose a date (e.g. your retirement, or a major purchase goal), and to see where price might be. Not only the fair price, but perhaps more importantly, the floor price below which bitcoin should never go under again.\n\n- To choose a price (e.g. $1m), and to see the probable date (when fair price reaches the price) and very high probable date (when bottom price reaches it).\n\n- To remind me to stop making too emotionally fantastical price predictions whenever price takes off on one of its major spurts, or I read some ultra-bullish article.\n\nAnd more importantly, just to be able to show the chart while talking to a noob, with price indisputably sloping from bottom left to top right. Message: it's not too high to buy ;)\n\nOf course, models are not guarantees. They all have their flaws, and the obvious one in this case is the model does not take into account the 4 year halving cycle to refine its price predictions.\n\nBut I believe there is less likelihood of this stock-to-flow cycle repeating indefinitely (as the halving becomes a less and less significant part of the bitcoin stock), than of nature's Power Law continuing as we go through the global adoption curve.\n\nEnjoy!\n(no ads, trackers, spammers, or VPN blockers)\nhttps://onebig.life/powerlaw",
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}