stacksatsio on Nostr: I’ve been experiencing the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon with power laws 😅 Gone from ...
I’ve been experiencing the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon with power laws 😅
Gone from a curiosity to suddenly everywhere!
The models seem to fit but our understanding behind them is weak. Geoffrey West explains that oftentimes for these exponential patterns to continue what is actually happening is the underlying hits an inflection point before entering a new exponential and smoothed out this tracks the power law. Understood in this way it would be easy to see how the access to capital via ETFs could be that next step change with corporate balance sheets and nation state adoptions possibly representing future step changes to extend the power law. Once liquidity in Bitcoin approaches gold for example, it opens up new usecases and new adoption that isn’t possible today at sub $1 Trillion, all these things have to follow in a certain natural order predicated on previous cycles but it seems obvious that it will continue on this path over a 10-20 year period.
Regardless, if the power law IS true it provides some interesting anchor points for Bitcoiners to consider:
- $100k floor from the 2028 halving onwards
- $500k floor by 2035 (ie on par with Gold’s 2024 mkt cap)
- $1M is NOT happening this cycle
- $1M is likely 10 years away (circa 2033-34)
- $1M floor from 2038 onwards, by this point you can expect 1 BTC will always be minimum 7 figures of filthy fiat
I’ve been looking at power laws as Im interested in network effects and sense there really is some actual inevitability baked into Bitcoin that hasn’t yet been fully articulated yet because of intertwined dimensions we haven’t mapped out fully in one go.
I extrapolated out the BTC Trolololo model to the end of BTCs supply issuance and the numbers break my brain, so here’s just the next 20 years measured at January 1st of each year (halving years in gold) which is pretty unbelievable on its own.
If you want to read more about this: https://giovannisantostasi.medium.com/btc-trolololo-model-revisited-still-valid-today-is-really-a-power-law-in-disguise-da11b58cf5de 
Published at
2024-02-03 02:10:49Event JSON
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"content": "I’ve been experiencing the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon with power laws 😅\n\nGone from a curiosity to suddenly everywhere!\n\nThe models seem to fit but our understanding behind them is weak. Geoffrey West explains that oftentimes for these exponential patterns to continue what is actually happening is the underlying hits an inflection point before entering a new exponential and smoothed out this tracks the power law. Understood in this way it would be easy to see how the access to capital via ETFs could be that next step change with corporate balance sheets and nation state adoptions possibly representing future step changes to extend the power law. Once liquidity in Bitcoin approaches gold for example, it opens up new usecases and new adoption that isn’t possible today at sub $1 Trillion, all these things have to follow in a certain natural order predicated on previous cycles but it seems obvious that it will continue on this path over a 10-20 year period.\n\nRegardless, if the power law IS true it provides some interesting anchor points for Bitcoiners to consider:\n\n- $100k floor from the 2028 halving onwards\n- $500k floor by 2035 (ie on par with Gold’s 2024 mkt cap)\n- $1M is NOT happening this cycle \n- $1M is likely 10 years away (circa 2033-34)\n- $1M floor from 2038 onwards, by this point you can expect 1 BTC will always be minimum 7 figures of filthy fiat https://i.nostr.build/AeXo.png nostr:note1c5xmrqkq8j03kz0zmfe5hl8cn5rdgakcy79ad5gyytndt3ve3ggsa6p04n",
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