PolicyWatch on Nostr: 🔴 Following the release of the #FOMC minutes, market expectations for a #Fed rate ...
🔴 Following the release of the #FOMC minutes, market expectations for a #Fed rate hold in November are climbing! 📈
🇺🇸 While a 25 basis point cut is still the most likely outcome, the probability has decreased from 85.2% to 79.4%. Conversely, the chances of no change in interest rates have risen to 20.6% (up from 14.8%).
The CME Group, which tracks these probabilities, also shows that the market is now less certain about the Fed enacting two 25 basis point cuts in November and December. This scenario now has a 76.3% chance of occurring, compared to 77.1% yesterday. The likelihood of just one 25 basis point cut over those two meetings has increased from 13.1% to 19.6%. Clearly, the minutes have injected a dose of uncertainty into the outlook for Fed policy.
#InterestRates #Markets #Breaking #Economy
Published at
2024-10-09 22:38:51Event JSON
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"content": "🔴 Following the release of the #FOMC minutes, market expectations for a #Fed rate hold in November are climbing! 📈\n\n🇺🇸 While a 25 basis point cut is still the most likely outcome, the probability has decreased from 85.2% to 79.4%. Conversely, the chances of no change in interest rates have risen to 20.6% (up from 14.8%). \n\nThe CME Group, which tracks these probabilities, also shows that the market is now less certain about the Fed enacting two 25 basis point cuts in November and December. This scenario now has a 76.3% chance of occurring, compared to 77.1% yesterday. The likelihood of just one 25 basis point cut over those two meetings has increased from 13.1% to 19.6%. Clearly, the minutes have injected a dose of uncertainty into the outlook for Fed policy. \n\n#InterestRates #Markets #Breaking #Economy\n",
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