They have a market cap well north of $100b based on private investors who think they sound futuristic and innovative by declaring themselves SpaceX investors. They have come nowhere close to meeting their revenue projections over the years. Launch revenues about a billion and maybe another billion for Starlink. Look at Orbital ATK, ULA, Safran, Aerojet Rocketdyne and the telecom companies financials and market cap.
Entirely speculative market cap based on cult of personality, much like Tesla. Stocks are monetized and money needs no intrinsic value. Elon makes a relatively good local Schelling point for store of value to many people.
Their approach of reusable, large rockets is predicated on a surge in demand for launch far greater than anyone is expecting, and the proliferation of smallsats means way less mass/volume per satellite. Starship absurd excess capacity. They wanted to bootstrap with Starlink, but they are finding link budget means they cannot actually deliver great service (costs rising, and congestion reducing speeds).
Meanwhile 5g deployment is growing at such a tremendous pace, there will be wireless broadband in small towns that outperforms Starlink at a fraction of the price. Already the case in most places. I've been in various ~5k population towns where this works great, and the population in sub 1k towns ("true rural") is miniscule.
LynAlden (npub1a2c…w83a) said they least about SpaceX because she is not an engineer, yet has enough data to surmise from Elon's character that something is likely awry, and I am happy to back her up.
You remember my ring, Peter? That's the sort of stuff that gets slowed down when people fixate on investing in things that are physically big/shiny, driven largely by reptilian instincts.
Dirac Delta
npub1c8…pqsah
2023-04-08 13:08:00
in reply to nevent1q…gaw7
Author Public Key
npub1c8nlcgd5l8qenesgdcy4vw0s794yujyy23z50n52v5ld0ddkcjnsppqsahPublished at
2023-04-08 13:08:00Event JSON
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"content": "They have a market cap well north of $100b based on private investors who think they sound futuristic and innovative by declaring themselves SpaceX investors. They have come nowhere close to meeting their revenue projections over the years. Launch revenues about a billion and maybe another billion for Starlink. Look at Orbital ATK, ULA, Safran, Aerojet Rocketdyne and the telecom companies financials and market cap.\n\nEntirely speculative market cap based on cult of personality, much like Tesla. Stocks are monetized and money needs no intrinsic value. Elon makes a relatively good local Schelling point for store of value to many people.\n\nTheir approach of reusable, large rockets is predicated on a surge in demand for launch far greater than anyone is expecting, and the proliferation of smallsats means way less mass/volume per satellite. Starship absurd excess capacity. They wanted to bootstrap with Starlink, but they are finding link budget means they cannot actually deliver great service (costs rising, and congestion reducing speeds).\n\nMeanwhile 5g deployment is growing at such a tremendous pace, there will be wireless broadband in small towns that outperforms Starlink at a fraction of the price. Already the case in most places. I've been in various ~5k population towns where this works great, and the population in sub 1k towns (\"true rural\") is miniscule.\n\n#[1] said they least about SpaceX because she is not an engineer, yet has enough data to surmise from Elon's character that something is likely awry, and I am happy to back her up.\n\nYou remember my ring, Peter? That's the sort of stuff that gets slowed down when people fixate on investing in things that are physically big/shiny, driven largely by reptilian instincts.",
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