“Today's sale of $32B in 10Y notes had to be priced at a high yield of 3.985% and promptly tailed when Issued by 2.7bps. Of the past 5 10Y auctions, 4 have tailed or had stop throughs of more than 2bps, a degree of volatility never seen before. What does this mean? Even a moderately sized auction pushes down price (pushes up yield), a sure sign of poor liquidity. Why does this matter? We think the Treasury may be headed for a crisis where issuance exceeds market's appetite.”
-Seabridge Gold Investor
Luke Groman’s Response:
“DXY bounces from 101 to 105 and right on cue, UST auctions get notably weaker.
If Powell wants to be Volcker and not Burns, he will have to be willing to stand aside as a UST auction fails.
That ain’t gonna be allowed to happen, IMO.”
Larry Leopard’s response:
“Holy shit. A 2.7bps tail is close to failure, correct?”
preston
npub1s5…s6q7z
2023-03-08 22:13:26
Author Public Key
npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7zPublished at
2023-03-08 22:13:26Event JSON
{
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"pubkey": "85080d3bad70ccdcd7f74c29a44f55bb85cbcd3dd0cbb957da1d215bdb931204",
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"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "“Today's sale of $32B in 10Y notes had to be priced at a high yield of 3.985% and promptly tailed when Issued by 2.7bps. Of the past 5 10Y auctions, 4 have tailed or had stop throughs of more than 2bps, a degree of volatility never seen before. What does this mean? Even a moderately sized auction pushes down price (pushes up yield), a sure sign of poor liquidity. Why does this matter? We think the Treasury may be headed for a crisis where issuance exceeds market's appetite.” \n-Seabridge Gold Investor\n\nLuke Groman’s Response:\n“DXY bounces from 101 to 105 and right on cue, UST auctions get notably weaker.\n\nIf Powell wants to be Volcker and not Burns, he will have to be willing to stand aside as a UST auction fails.\n\nThat ain’t gonna be allowed to happen, IMO.”\n\nLarry Leopard’s response:\n“Holy shit. A 2.7bps tail is close to failure, correct?”",
"sig": "01fac1526d14be3e2a09fd3ec743e1cb6536486e182d5f1c18a424e3f08ec0da5540fa258410f4becf1f4593cac5e61442ac62dfb7f6faaa8395e12194814dad"
}