Hes basically saying "you need our markets to survive." It's true.
What this ultimately will do, instead of just the world moving away from american financial infrastructure, will make economies more wary of depending on the US as an export market. This is very, very hard to do; you export to where the demand is, where the capital is willing to spend on your product, where the population is. So even though they'll decide to do this, they can't do it without increasing risk in their domestic economies, they have to do it slowly, it will take a very long time. Basically, you need a country rivaling the US in population to develop into a net import rather than a net export economy, and there are none like that as of right now, but many that are in the process. So I'd say it will take decades, but a policy like this guarantees that our imports reduce after that.
It seems to me that this is actually what the current US administration wants, to rebuild a domestic economy that has a domestic production capacity and domestic demand for that capacity, a next export economy rather than a net import economy. Time will tell if it is a good idea, you have plenty saying that it is not a good one, "protectionism", and then you have plenty pointing to empirical evidence that the US was the strongest when we consumed mostly domestic products and relied mostly on domestic industry. I see truth in both, and I guess I'm going to find out eventually which one is more true than the other.
mister_monster
npub1m5…jgjl3
2025-02-13 21:17:01
in reply to nevent1q…nnmh
Author Public Key
npub1m5s9w4t03znyetxswhgq0ud7fq8ef8y3l4kscn2e8wkvmv42hh3qujgjl3Published at
2025-02-13 21:17:01Event JSON
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"content": "Hes basically saying \"you need our markets to survive.\" It's true.\n\nWhat this ultimately will do, instead of just the world moving away from american financial infrastructure, will make economies more wary of depending on the US as an export market. This is very, very hard to do; you export to where the demand is, where the capital is willing to spend on your product, where the population is. So even though they'll decide to do this, they can't do it without increasing risk in their domestic economies, they have to do it slowly, it will take a very long time. Basically, you need a country rivaling the US in population to develop into a net import rather than a net export economy, and there are none like that as of right now, but many that are in the process. So I'd say it will take decades, but a policy like this guarantees that our imports reduce after that.\n\nIt seems to me that this is actually what the current US administration wants, to rebuild a domestic economy that has a domestic production capacity and domestic demand for that capacity, a next export economy rather than a net import economy. Time will tell if it is a good idea, you have plenty saying that it is not a good one, \"protectionism\", and then you have plenty pointing to empirical evidence that the US was the strongest when we consumed mostly domestic products and relied mostly on domestic industry. I see truth in both, and I guess I'm going to find out eventually which one is more true than the other.",
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