Dr. Jeff on Nostr: An update on *liquidity* flows... OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of ...
An update on *liquidity* flows...
OBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021!
OPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀
OBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).
OPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.
Hope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends.
Published at
2024-08-20 12:38:58Event JSON
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"content": "An update on *liquidity* flows...\n\nOBSERVATION #1: US NET LIQUIDITY (top half of chart) continues to be generally rangebound (chopping sideways: crab-like) since all the way back in 2021! \n\nOPINION #1: US-based risk assets tend to follow US net liquidity over time. Based on this data, I would continue to expect choppy sideways (crab-like) price action for US mid cap, small cap, and micro cap stocks until the trend changes. -- If these equities make overly bearish or overly bullish moves in the short-term, one could consider making a short-term contrarian trade. 🦀 \n\nOBSERVATION #2: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY (bottom half of chart) has officially broken out to the upside of its three-year choppy sideways range, and is resuming its longer term trend ever up-and-to-the-right. This longer term trend will continue until the dollar dies (decades from now).\n\nOPINION #2: In the near-term, this resumption of increasing global M2 money supply is bullish for global assets... currently including megacap technology stocks and, of course, bitcoin. Based on past precedent, I continue to expect weak bitcoin price action throughout the month of August, giving HODLers a beautiful opportunity to stack relatively cheap sats in the setting of rising global M2. -- I do not believe this bargain will go unnoticed for much longer, with the next major bitcoin bull market beginning sometime between September and December of 2024, and probably lasting until 4Q of 2025.\n\nHope this helps. Cheers #nostr friends. \n\nhttps://m.primal.net/KFij.png ",
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