RebelOfBabylon on Nostr: The first article you shared says this: "The model calculated the monthly change in ...

The first article you shared says this:

"The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said."

The second article says this:

"The study says that, before the eruption, there was a 50-50 chance that global temperatures would exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at least once by 2026. In its aftermath, the likelihood of exceeding this threshold has increased by seven percentage points – making “imminent 1.5C exceedance” more likely than not."

So although it has temporarily warmed the planet further, the major underlying cause is still because of the major excess of GHGs. So sure, maybe once all the water vapour cycles out of the stratosphere, global temperatures will cool slightly, but then again the amount of warming the water vapour may have caused is within the usual level of noise in the climate system. So even if we assume the last two winters are exceptionally mild because of the volcano, more winters like it are likely to come as the planet continues to warm.