What Soft Landing?
==========
The economic outlook in the United States is uncertain, with different indicators telling different stories. Inflation may get stuck at a level inconsistent with the US Federal Reserve's target, reducing the number of interest-rate cuts this year. The US economy has slowed, but not to the extent that was feared. Job gains have decreased, and consumer-price inflation has cooled. However, the labor market is still hot, GDP growth is adding to inflationary pressure, and monthly inflation is higher than in previous months. There are concerns that this trend could accelerate, leading to a level of inflation inconsistent with the Fed's target. Growth expectations for 2024 were improving, but there are signs that the economy may be cooling or heading towards a recession. Factors such as a dim outlook for business investment, concerns about consumer spending, and a loss of consumer confidence contribute to this uncertainty. A soft landing, with inflation at the Fed's target and sustainable employment and GDP growth, is less likely than the economy reaccelerating or mildly contracting. However, a soft landing is not impossible if high interest rates can lower job vacancies without destroying jobs. The Fed must assess the direction of the economy and make decisions accordingly. Investors in the bond market expect the first rate cut to occur in June, but if the economy remains strong, rate cuts may not be necessary.
#UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #JobGains #Consumer-priceInflation #LaborMarket #GdpGrowth #Recession #BusinessInvestment #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerConfidence #Fed'sTarget #BondMarket
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/what-soft-landing/
American Enterprise Institute /
npub14z…4fwd3
2024-03-11 18:48:06
Author Public Key
npub14zq8m4ucx6nteqtxp2d3m8z3tqa2hkcwh4rm96lde0cx2cjwlh9s94fwd3Seen on
wss://relay.nostr.band/allPublished at
2024-03-11 18:48:06Event JSON
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"content": "What Soft Landing?\n==========\n\nThe economic outlook in the United States is uncertain, with different indicators telling different stories. Inflation may get stuck at a level inconsistent with the US Federal Reserve's target, reducing the number of interest-rate cuts this year. The US economy has slowed, but not to the extent that was feared. Job gains have decreased, and consumer-price inflation has cooled. However, the labor market is still hot, GDP growth is adding to inflationary pressure, and monthly inflation is higher than in previous months. There are concerns that this trend could accelerate, leading to a level of inflation inconsistent with the Fed's target. Growth expectations for 2024 were improving, but there are signs that the economy may be cooling or heading towards a recession. Factors such as a dim outlook for business investment, concerns about consumer spending, and a loss of consumer confidence contribute to this uncertainty. A soft landing, with inflation at the Fed's target and sustainable employment and GDP growth, is less likely than the economy reaccelerating or mildly contracting. However, a soft landing is not impossible if high interest rates can lower job vacancies without destroying jobs. The Fed must assess the direction of the economy and make decisions accordingly. Investors in the bond market expect the first rate cut to occur in June, but if the economy remains strong, rate cuts may not be necessary.\n\n#UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #JobGains #Consumer-priceInflation #LaborMarket #GdpGrowth #Recession #BusinessInvestment #ConsumerSpending #ConsumerConfidence #Fed'sTarget #BondMarket\n\nhttps://www.aei.org/op-eds/what-soft-landing/",
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